Thursday Trends and Indexes 10/25

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 8


Oakland at Tennessee
The Titans had to play last week without Vince Young at QB, but found that Kerry Collins could move the offense well enough to put 38 points on the board against Houston. Young should be back this week and will look to improve in the red zone where Tennessee was just 2-for-9 and had to settle for eight Rod Bironas FGs. Those struggles pale in comparison, though, to what Oakland has been going through lately. The Raiders have managed only 98 yards rushing over the last two games after averaging 194.3 through the first four weeks. That has put the pressure on QB Daunte Culpepper to step up and the veteran has failed to deliver in back-to-back losses to San Diego and Kansas City. Coach Lane Kiffin is staying mum as to whether Culpepper or Josh McCown will start this week. But either should have a difficult time against a Titan defense that is allowing a league-low 59.7 rushing yards per game and ranks sixth in total defense (290.0 ypg). Tennessee looks like a good pick to cover (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Titans favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-7). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 203-204: Cleveland at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 120.927; St. Louis 122.118
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 205-206: Detroit at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 126.756; Chicago 129.245
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5 1/2); Over

Game 207-208: Indianapolis at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 146.313; Carolina 131.340
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 15; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Under

Game 209-210: NY Giants vs. Miami
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 134.645; Miami 119.979
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 15; 51
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-9 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: Oakland at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 119.341; Tennessee 137.909
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 18 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 40
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-7); Over

Game 213-214: Philadelphia at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 128.158; Minnesota 131.035
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3; 40
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1); Over

Game 215-216: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.149; Cincinnati 132.454
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 48
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4); Under

Game 217-218: Buffalo at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.347; NY Jets 125.921
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 219-220: Houston at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 127.403; San Diego 135.761
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 8; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+10); Over

Game 221-222: Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 134.182; Tampa Bay 132.097
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 2; 36
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 32
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: New Orleans at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 121.712; San Francisco 124.354
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Under

Game 225-226: Washington at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.795; New England 151.715
Dunkel Line: New England by 22; 46
Vegas Line: New England by 16; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-16); Under



MONDAY, OCTOBER 29

Game 229-230: Green Bay at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 131.769; Denver 128.577
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Over

[kbsooner21]

Thanks guys! Have a great day!

[pm530]

Baseball – Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet

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Thursday, October 25th
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World Series
Game Two
Boston Leads, 1-0
TV: FOX

Colorado at Boston, 8:20 ET
Ubaldo Jimenez (R) vs. Curt Schilling (R)

Jimenez:
Colorado 5-0 SU Away after allowing 12+ runs
Colorado 26-14 after scoring 2 runs or less

Schilling:
5-10 TSR off a Boston win
Boston 2-9 SU at home after a win by 12+ runs

[Udog]

CFL
Hot Lines


Makin’ Canadian bacon: Week 18 CFL picks

BC Lions at Hamilton Tiger Cats (+12 ½, 49)
Friday, Oct. 26, 6:30 p.m. ET

BC is the CFL’s best team and Hamilton is its worst. But laying 12 ½ points on the road? I can’t do that on principle alone.

However, there aren’t many reasons to take the Ticats this Friday either, even with all those points. The season was a lost cause long ago and head coach Charlie Taaffe has decided to clear the locker room of bad seeds by sending players home with games left on the schedule. That might help in 2008 but Hamilton’s back-to-back pastings at Saskatchewan’s hands show how Taaffe’s dismissals aren’t making for a smooth conclusion to 2007.

I seem to have some weird knack for calling Hamilton games. I’m 12-4 this season in calling Ticats results and the paydays have been all over the board – three wins taking Hamilton, three taking its opponent, four overs and two unders. This feels like an under week for a couple of reasons.

First and foremost is the fact that Hamilton can’t score worth a lick. The Lions have also been held to about 25 points per game over their last four road games, and an over play depends almost entirely on BC’s output. Then there’s the likelihood of a cool, rainy evening at Ivor Wynne on Friday. It looks like an ugly one.

Pick: Under 49


Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (+4, 50 ½)
Friday, Oct. 26, 9:30 p.m. ET

The Riders are 4-0 SU and ATS since Week 14. They say they’re motivated by the mathematical possibility of finishing first in the West Division. But it’s hard to put much stock in either the numbers or the words.

The most recent pair of wins came against the sad-sack Tabbies while the preceding victory came against a Henry Burris-less Calgary squad. And as for the Riders’ hopes of a division title, well, a BC win in Hamilton could put an end to those dreams before kickoff at Commonwealth.

Saskatchewan clinched a home-field playoff game and the financial windfall that accompanies it. The Riders are virtually guaranteed to play Calgary in the West semifinal in a couple of weeks. So what will motivate them on a cool night in Edmonton?

Edmonton’s lost season should have drawn to a close already, but Montreal’s struggles have extended a lifeline to the Eskimos. They’ve responded with a couple of decent efforts against BC, losing both but covering the spread in each defeat. The Esks are playing better than expected despite new faces scattered through the lineup. I’m counting on a bit of a Riders letdown this week, so I’ll take the points despite Edmonton’s injury list.

Pick: Eskimos +4


Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-6, 47 ½)
Saturday, Oct. 27, 3 p.m. ET

There are a lot of reasons to like the Argonauts and just as many to dislike the Bombers this week.

Toronto has been a payout machine, going 8-1 ATS since Week 9. The Argos covered the spread in both games against Winnipeg during that run and now boast an 8-1 ATS mark against East Division teams in 2007. The Boatmen have also won and covered in each of their last five games, allowing only 13.6 points per game and winning each by at least a touchdown.

The Argos can vault into first place in the East with a win. Toronto is already the host city for the Grey Cup but the Argos’ postseason could be even sweeter if they can make Rogers Centre the venue for the East Final as well.

Winnipeg, in the meantime, has to deal with fresh injuries galore. Rob Pikula hurt his ankle during practice this week, leaving the punting role to a newcomer and the kicking role up for grabs. Charles Roberts is questionable with a thigh bruise. DE Doug Brown is out with a broken orbital bone.

Even more troublingly, the Bombers recent passing game hasn’t met its early-season standards. Winnipeg has led the East for a long time but its reign ends on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Argonauts -6


Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders (-7, 52)
Saturday, Oct. 27, 7 p.m. ET

Anthony Calvillo took an indefinite leave of absence from the Als this week due to his wife’s serious illness. Calvillo’s situation has cast a pall over the Alouettes and understandably so. He’s pure class, one of the most respected players in the CFL, and has far bigger things to worry about than the outcome of a football game.

"A good friend and his family are suffering. It makes you not want to go run around," Calvillo’s long-time teammate Ben Cahoon told reporters. "It makes you want to know what you can do to help out.”

The game will go on, however, and Montreal will play both Jason Maas and Marcus Brady at quarterback this Saturday. It’s an important game for the Als in terms of the standings, as they haven’t clinched a playoff berth yet. But “important game” doesn’t carry much weight among the Alouettes this week. They’re 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS over their last half-dozen games and Calvillo’s plight won’t help that improve.

Calgary has a lot to sort out before the playoffs start. The Stamps will play hard this Saturday despite knowing they’ll finish third in the West. Their 4-3 defense is still so new and Henry Burris wants a quality outing before the postseason.

Pick: Stampeders -7

Last week: 2-2

Year to date: 32-32

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel


Atlanta at Nashville
Atlanta has gotten a little shot in the arm since general manager Don Waddell took over for fired head coach Bob Hartley, winning two of three with victories over the Maple Leafs and Rangers. Nashville continues to sink lower as the Predators have lost six straight while being outscored 12-1 in the last three games. Atlanta looks like a good underdog pick (+133) according to Dunkel, which has the Thrashers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+133). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 25

Game 1-2: New Jersey at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.773; NY Rangers 11.574
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-147); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-147); Over

Game 3-4: St. Louis at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.974; Columbus 11.538
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-128); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+118); Under

Game 5-6: Chicago at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.584; Boston 10.778
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-148); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+138); Under

Game 7-8: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.285; Tampa Bay 10.753
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-133); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+123); Over

Game 9-10: Toronto at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.457; Pittsburgh 11.889
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-191); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-191); Under

Game 11-12: Atlanta at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.305; Nashville 9.921
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-143); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+133); Over

Game 13-14: Minnesota at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.158; Edmonton 10.445
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-143); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-143); Over

Game 15-16: Phoenix at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.359; Anaheim 11.869
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-225); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-225); Under

Game 17-18: Dallas at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.414; Los Angeles 11.850
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-123); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+113); Under