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THE SUNSHINE FORECAST

WEEK 16 OF THE 2002 NFL REGULAR SEASON

Do NFL teams bounce after two low-scoring performances? Last week we investigated teams that score bundles of points in consecutive weeks. This week we're looking at the opposite side, consecutive games in single digits, although we'll extend the analysis to include teams that scored less than 10 points and teams that surrendered less than 10 points twice in a row. Do these teams revert back to average performances after such extremes?

The offensive laggards do have a slight tendency to bounce back as evidenced by a 59-49 ATS record (54.6%) between 1990 and 2001. If you narrow the list to teams that are underdogs in their next game, the record improves to 47-35 ATS (57%). Following a poor scoring performance at home, teams cover at a 59% rate (27-19 ATS) overall and 63% (22-13 ATS) as underdogs. And if both bad games were both at home, the bounce-back ratio is 10-4 (71% ATS) regardless of where the next game is played with 9 out of 11 underdogs (82%) covering.

In 2002 the positive trend following a poor home outing continues with a 3-1 ATS record. Winners were Houston +19 at Philadelphia, Baltimore +9 vs. Denver, and Cincinnati +13½ at Indianapolis. The only non-cover was Carolina's 34-24 loss to New Orleans as 4-point dogs on a last-play fumble return TD. None of those games involved teams coming off back-to-back home games.

Result After Scoring 0-9 Points in Consecutive Home Games (since 1990)
ATS
Date Team Opponent Line Result

11/11/90 Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Dog by 2 W
11/04/91 Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants Dog by 3½ W
11/10/91 Indianapolis Colts New York Jets Dog by 13½ W
10/04/92 New England Patriots New York Jets Dog by 10 W
12/12/93 Detroit Lions Phoenix Cardinals Dog by 7 W
12/24/94 New York Jets Houston Oilers Fav by 1½ L
11/12/95 San Francisco 49ers Dallas Cowboys Dog by 13½ W
09/21/97 Indianapolis Colts Buffalo Bills Dog by 6 W
11/02/97 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Indianapolis Colts Fav by 4½ L
11/09/97 New Orleans Saints Oakland Raiders Dog by 9½ W
12/21/97 San Diego Chargers Denver Broncos Dog by 13 L
12/05/99 San Francisco 49ers Cincinnati Bengals Dog by 3 L
11/05/00 Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals Fav by 6 W
11/12/00 Cleveland Browns New England Patriots Dog by 7 W

Overall record for 1990 through 2001: 10-4 ATS (71%)
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The defensive stalwarts frequently experience a bounce as well, but a negative one. This is especially true for favorites after allowing less than 10 points in consecutive games (28-43 ATS since 1990, 39%), even more so for road chalk (10-19 ATS, 34%). The few qualifying road favorite games of 2002 have resulted in a split as San Diego (-3) covered at Arizona in week 3 but Miami (-2½) failed at Buffalo on December 1.

Result as Road Favorite After Allowing 0-9 Points in Consecutive Games (since 1990)
ATS
Date Team Opponent Line Result

10/07/90 Kansas City Chiefs Indianapolis Colts Fav by 6 L
11/11/90 Miami Dolphins New York Jets Fav by 3½ W
11/25/90 New York Giants Philadelphia Eagles Fav by 3 L
12/29/90 Philadelphia Eagles Phoenix Cardinals Fav by 7½ L
12/30/90 Pittsburgh Steelers Houston Oilers Fav by 2 L
09/22/91 Tennessee Titans New England Patriots Fav by 12½ L
09/29/91 New Orleans Saints Atlanta Falcons Fav by 2½ W
10/13/91 New Orleans Saints Philadelphia Eagles Fav by 6 W
10/20/91 Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos Fav by 2 L
11/03/91 San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons Fav by 5 L
11/10/91 Seattle Seahawks San Diego Chargers Fav by 2 L
10/11/92 Philadelphia Eagles Kansas City Chiefs Fav by 2 L
10/25/92 Baltimore Ravens New England Patriots Fav by 4½ L
12/11/93 New York Jets Washington Redskins Fav by 3 P
01/02/94 Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Fav by 6½ L
12/22/96 Dallas Cowboys Washington Redskins Fav by 1 L
09/29/97 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers Fav by 3½ W
11/23/97 Pittsburgh Steelers Philadelphia Eagles Fav by 3 L
12/14/97 Kansas City Chiefs San Diego Chargers Fav by 9½ W
10/11/98 New York Jets St Louis Rams Fav by 3 L
11/15/98 Dallas Cowboys Arizona Cardinals Fav by 3½ W
10/10/99 Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia Eagles Fav by 9½ L
10/31/99 Jacksonville Jaguars Cincinnati Bengals Fav by 12½ W
11/21/99 Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals Fav by 5 L
01/02/00 Baltimore Ravens New England Patriots Fav by 1 L
10/01/00 Miami Dolphins Cincinnati Bengals Fav by 7 W
12/03/00 San Francisco 49ers San Diego Chargers Fav by 2½ W
12/17/00 Baltimore Ravens Arizona Cardinals Fav by 15 L
09/30/01 Green Bay Packers Carolina Panthers Fav by 3½ W
12/30/01 San Francisco 49ers Dallas Cowboys Fav by 6½ L
09/22/02 San Diego Chargers Arizona Cardinals Fav by 2½ W
12/01/02 Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills Fav by 2 L

Overall record for 1990 through Week 14 of 2002: 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%)
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Predicted College Bowl Scores based on Power Ratings
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
Monday, December 23, 2002
Texas Tech 39 Clemson 33 [Tangerine Bowl]

Wednesday, December 25, 2002
U.C.L.A. 35 New Mexico 23 [Las Vegas Bowl]
Hawaii 33 Tulane 29 [Hawaii Bowl]


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Statistical Projections for College Bowl Games
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
Rush Pass Fumb Int
Game ID Team Score Yds Yds Lost Lost

12/23/2002 01 Clemson 31 134 250 0 1
Texas Tech 37 101 372 1 2

12/25/2002 02 New Mexico 20 158 135 1 1
U.C.L.A. 28 124 242 1 1

12/25/2002 03 Hawaii 23 112 287 2 3
Tulane 21 102 191 0 1


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Historical Trends for NFL
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
(sides based on games since 1994, totals based on games since 1996)
Totals: December 22, 2002

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Take UNDER
Domination by Unders at Jacksonville Jaguars 6-1 86%


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Predicted NFL Scores based on Power Ratings
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
Saturday, December 21, 2002
Miami Dolphins 28 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 27
San Francisco 49ers 29 ARIZONA CARDINALS 21
Philadelphia Eagles 22 DALLAS COWBOYS 13

Sunday, December 22, 2002
GREEN BAY PACKERS 33 Buffalo Bills 25
ATLANTA FALCONS 30 Detroit Lions 19
Chicago Bears 20 CAROLINA PANTHERS 19
New Orleans Saints 36 CINCINNATI BENGALS 27
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20 New York Giants 16
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 27 Tennessee Titans 24
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 35 San Diego Chargers 25
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 20 Houston Texans 17
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 26 St Louis Rams 23
OAKLAND RAIDERS 31 Denver Broncos 26
Cleveland Browns 22 BALTIMORE RAVENS 21
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 24 New York Jets 20

Monday, December 23, 2002
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 15

[capper]

Dr. Bob?

Great info BettorsChat, thanks! Do you have Dr. Bob's bowl picks available? Just thought I would check..

thanks again!

[BettorsChat]

Not at the moment

[BettorsChat]

NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

WEEK 16 NFL SELECTIONS
4* San Fransico over ARIZONA 28-9
3* CAROLINA over Chicago 17-6
2* GREEN BAY over Buffalo 27-13
2* Cleveland over BALTIMORE 24-21

COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS
4* OHIO STATE ( ) over Miami 24-20
4* TENNESSEE over Maryland 31-17
4* ARKANSAS over Minnesota 34-17
3* AIR FORCE ( ) over Virginia Tech 31-37
3* TCU ( ) over Colorado State 28-24
3* IOWA STATE ( ) over Boise State 38-37
3* OREGON over Wake Forest 38-25
3* WISCONSON over Colorado 28-31
3* ARIZONA STATE ( ) over Kansas State 21-30
3* SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ( ) over Oklahoma State 27-30
3* TULANE ( ) over Hawaii 24-31
3* NOTRE DAME over NC State 23-13
3* PENN STATE over Auburn 30-13
2* CLEMSON ( ) over Texas Tech 37-40
2* NEW MEXICO ( ) over UCLA 17-21
2* OVER 60 Boston College/Toledo 37-33
2* PITTSBURGH ( ) over Oregon State 23-13
2* NEBRASKA over Mississippi 34-23
2* WEST VIRGINIA over Virginia 38-27
2* MICHIGAN over Florida 27-20
2* FLORIDA STATE over Georgia 28-25
1* GEORGIA TECH over Fresno State 23-16
1* TEXAS over LSU 27-13
1* WASHINGTON ( ) over Oklahoma 23-24

WEEK 17 NFL SELECTIONS
4* NEW ENGLAND over Miami 24-13
3* DENVER over Arizona 31-0
2* CLEVELAND over Atlanta 28-20
2* PITTSBURGH over Baltimore 24-6

[BettorsChat]

Bowl Info and Trends 12/20/02
2002 TEAM PERFORMANCE TRENDS
Which are the HOT teams coming into this year’s bowl games?
• IOWA was 6-0 SU & ATS in its final six games of the regular season.
• TENNESSEE won its final three games of the season SU & ATS, with consecutive shutouts in the final two.
• AUBURN closed the regular season on a 5-1 ATS stretch.
• KANSAS STATE was 5-0 SU & ATS to end the season, outscoring its opponents 253-30.
• OKLAHOMA closed the regular season on a 6-2 ATS run, its best stretch since the beginning of the 2000 season.
• OKLAHOMA STATE comes into its bowl game vs SOUTHERN MISS on a 5-1 SU & ATS run.
• USC is on a six game SU & ATS winning streak as it prepares to battle IOWA in the Rose Bowl.
• MIAMI enters its second straight national title game with a 34 game winning streak.
• BOSTON COLLEGE heads into the Motor City Bowl on a 5-1 ATS stretch.
• WEST VIRGINIA has the nation’s longest ATS winning streak at seven games.
• CINCINNATI covered six of its last seven games of the 2002 season.
• TULANE finished the regular season on a 6-1 ATS run.
• NEW MEXICO enters its Christmas Day bowl game vs UCLA on a five game ATS winning streak.
• BOISE STATE has a 10 game SU winning streak and is 9-1 ATS in that span.

Which teams are playing POORLY heading into their bowl games?
• MINNESOTA was 0-4 SU & ATS to end the season and were outscored by 22.5 ppg in that span.
• ARKANSAS won three of its last four games SU to end the season, but was 0-4 ATS.
• IOWA STATE was 1-5 SU & ATS in the last six games of the year, including a 17 point home loss to Connecticut.
• OREGON was 1-5 SU & ATS to end the regular season.
• SOUTHERN MISS closed the year on a 1-7-1 ATS stretch and was just 2-8-1 ATS overall.
• FRESNO STATE has covered the spread just once in its last six games.
• HAWAII was 4-1 SU to end the regular season but just 1-4 ATS.


PAST BOWL PERFORMANCE TRENDS
The STRONG bowl teams:
• PENN STATE is 6-2 SU & ATS in its last eight bowl games.
• GEORGIA is on a 4-1 SU & ATS run in its last five bowl games.
• LSU has won five bowl games in a row SU and is 4-1 ATS in that span.
• OLE MISS is 4-1 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’92.
• NEBRASKA is on a 6-2 ATS run in its last eight bowl contests.
• Despite losing last season, COLORADO is on a 6-1 SU & ATS stretch in bowl games.
• WASHINGTON is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
• OREGON is on a stretch of 4-1 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’97.
• MIAMI has won five straight bowl games SU & ATS, all by double digit margins.
• BOSTON COLLEGE comes into its bowl game on a 4-1 SU & ATS bowl run.
• BOISE STATE is 2-0 SU & ATS in its only two previous bowl game.
• MARSHALL is on a four game SU & ATS bowl winning streak.

The WEAK bowl teams:
• OHIO STATE is 1-8 ATS in its last nine bowl games.
• MINNESOTA has lost its last three bowl games, both SU & ATS.
• AUBURN is 1-4 ATS in its bowl games since ’95.
• TEXAS has covered just once in its last six bowl games.
• TEXAS TECH has lost four straight bowl games, both SU & ATS, and all four as a favorite.
• UCLA is 1-4 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’93.
• VIRGINIA has lost four straight bowl games, both SU & ATS.
• NOTRE DAME hasn’t won a bowl game since January ’94 and is 1-4 ATS in that span.

MISCELLANEOUS FACTS FROM THE 2002-03 BOWL SEASON

• OHIO STATE is a double digit underdog for just the second time in six seasons.
• PENN STATE returns to a bowl games after a two year hiatus, the longest such stretch in the 37 year Joe Paterno era.
• TEXAS plays its eighth straight bowl game as a favorite.
• OKLAHOMA STATE plays in just its second bowl game since ’88.
• WAKE FOREST and PURDUE received bowl bids despite 6-6 records.
• FLORIDA STATE is 3-1 SU & ATS in the Sugar Bowl since ’95.
• NEW MEXICO plays in its first bowl game since ’97 and just its second since ’61.
• BOISE STATE plays its third bowl game ever, and coincidentally its third Humanitarian Bowl.

There are several rematches of recent bowls. They include:
• PURDUE and WASHINGTON met in the ’00 Rose Bowl. The Huskies won 34-24 as a 1-1/2 point dog.
• PENN STATE and AUBURN played the ’95 Outback Bowl. PENN STATE won 43-14 in that game.
• MARYLAND and TENNESSEE played each other in the ’83 Citrus Bowl & ’84 Sun Bowl. They split those games.
• OREGON and WAKE FOREST were the opponents in the ’92 Independence Bowl. Wake won that game 39-35.
• The ’98 Motor City Bowl matched LOUISVILLE and MARSHALL, who won 49-28. They meet again in this year’s GMAC Bowl.

VARIOUS MOTIVATIONAL FACTORS

As noted earlier, a team’s motivation can play a huge role in how it performs in a game. Motivation can come from countless number of factors though and several situations have arisen this year that could influence the upcoming games. Think about the following and refer back to these after the bowl season to see how they affected each game:
• LOUISVILLE was the clear favorite in the minds of the preseason prognosticators’ not only for the Conference-USA title but also possibly for a BCS spot. Five losses later, they are left facing MARSHALL from the MAC in the low profile GMAC Bowl.
• Just weeks ago, TEXAS TECH was battling OKLAHOMA for a spot in the Big 12 title game. A 45 point loss in that game knocked them back to a Tangerine Bowl matchup with unranked Clemson.
• UCLA fired Head Coach Bob Toledo just days after the regular season ending loss to WASHINGTON STATE. The last time a coach was replaced heading into the bowl game was in ’99 when Bobby Williams took over for Nick Saban and rallied MICHIGAN STATE to a 37-34 defeat of Florida in the Citrus Bowl.
• PITTSBURGH was staring at a possible New Year’s Day bowl until a season finale home loss to WEST VIRGINIA knocked them back to a December 26th date in Phoenix with OREGON ST.
• OKLAHOMA STATE earned its first bowl bid since ’97 by winning one of the biggest games in school history: a 38-28 decision over rival OKLAHOMA in the season finale.
• NEBRASKA, accustomed to playing high profile bowl games and national championships, is left to battling MISSISSIPPI for Independence Bowl bragging rights after a 7-6 regular season.
• KANSAS STATE, whose only two losses are by a total of seven points (to COLORADO & TEXAS), has disappointedly accepted a bid to the Holiday Bowl against 8-5 ARIZONA STATE.
• WISCONSIN has accepted an Alamo Bowl bid despite going just 2-6 in Big Ten play. The Badgers will face a COLORADO team that was one Big 12 title game win away from a trip to the BCS Rose Bowl.
• MINNESOTA has accepted a bid to the Music City Bowl against ARKANSAS despite losing its last four games by a margin of over 22 ppg.
• OREGON somehow turned a 6-0 start and top 10 ranking into a Seattle Bowl appearance against 6-6 WAKE FOREST.
• IOWA STATE, one of the nation’s biggest early season surprises finds itself installed as a 10 point underdog to WAC champion BOISE STATE in the Humanitarian Bowl after flaming out to end the year.
• TENNESSEE, destined for BCS stardom in the preseason, lost four games in 2002 and finds itself playing on New Year’s Eve against MARYLAND in a much lesser paid Peach Bowl.
• Just a short time ago, both NC STATE and NOTRE DAME were undefeated late in the season and eyeing BCS Bowl bids. A few defeats later and they meet in the lesser profile Gator Bowl. The Irish continued to lobby the BCS even after the 44-13 pounding they received at USC.
• Despite losing four games in the regular season, FLORIDA STATE has "earned" a BCS bowl bid via its ACC Championship. The Seminoles reward is a Sugar Bowl date with 12-1 GEORGIA, a team in the top 10 nearly all year.
• Oddsmakers have installed 12-0 OHIO STATE as a 13 point underdog to defending national champion MIAMI in the BCS title game. Ironically, the Buckeyes defense yielded only 13.25 ppg in its unbeaten regular season.


TRENDS, FACTS, & FIGURES FROM EACH BOWL MATCHUP (actual lines may vary)
NEW ORLEANS BOWL, 12/17/02, NORTH TEXAS vs CINCINNATI (-8.5, o/u 46.5): The second ever New Orleans Bowl sees North Texas return after the Eagles were beaten by Colorado St last year 45-20 as a 12 point dog. North Texas came into that game 5-6, this year they are 7-5.

GMAC BOWL, 12/18/02, LOUISVILLE vs MARSHALL (-2.5, o/u 60.5): Last year’s GMAC Bowl game was the highest scoring bowl game ever as Marshall beat East Carolina 64-61. The underdog has won three in a row SU & ATS in this bowl game previously known as the Mobile Alabama Bowl.

TANGERINE BOWL, 12/23/02, CLEMSON vs TEXAS TECH (-5.5, o/u 67): This is the 2nd installment of the reincarnated Tangerine Bowl after Pittsburgh defeated NC State last year 34-19. Tech comes in having lost four straight bowl games, all as a favorite.

LAS VEGAS BOWL, 12/25/02, NEW MEXICO vs UCLA (-10, o/u 56): In the last five lined Las Vegas Bowl games, the underdog has gone 4-0-1 ATS, including last year’s game when Utah beat USC 10-6 as a 3-1/2 point underdog.

HAWAII BOWL, 12/25/02, TULANE vs HAWAII (-12, o/u 62): Hawaii plays its fourth ever bowl game, and the third at its home field in Honolulu, as after a one year hiatus, the Christmas Day bowl game in Hawaii returns. The underdog had covered three in a row prior to that.

MOTOR CITY BOWL, 12/26/02, TOLEDO vs BOSTON COLLEGE (-5, o/u 61): Toledo returns to the Motor City Bowl for the second straight year after beating Cincinnati last year 23-16. Including that game, the MAC team in this bowl has won and covered four straight.

INSIGHT BOWL, 12/26/02, OREGON ST vs PITTSBURGH (pk, o/u 46): The second year in a row that this bowl is played at Bank One Ballpark. Pittsburgh last played in this game in 2000. The OVER is 4-2-1 in the last seven of the Insight (.com) bowl.

HOUSTON BOWL, 12/27/02, SOUTHERN MISS vs OKLAHOMA ST (-7, o/u 48.5): First ever bowl game played at Reliant Stadium, as this bowl, formerly known as the GalleryFurniture.com bowl was played at the Astrodome. Overs/Unders & Favorite/Underdogs are all split 1-1 in the previous two games.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL, 12/27/02, MISSISSIPPI vs NEBRASKA (-4, o/u 51): The SEC representative in the last seven Independence Bowl games is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. The underdog has covered the last four games.

HOLIDAY BOWL, 12/27/02, ARIZONA ST vs KANSAS ST (-17, o/u 62): The last three times the Holiday Bowl had a double digit favorite the underdog covered. Also, the Pac 10 team has covered the last four Holiday Bowl games, all as an underdog.

CONTINENTAL TIRE BOWL, 12/28/02, VIRGINIA vs WEST VIRGINIA (-5, o/u 49.5): The inaugural game in this Bowl. Also, the first bowl game ever played at Ericsson Stadium in Charlotte. Both of these neighboring state schools return to bowl play after a one year absence.

ALAMO BOWL, 12/28/02, WISCONSIN vs COLORADO (-8, o/u 52): The Big Ten team is 6-1 SU & ATS in the last seven games of the Alamo Bowl since the format changed, matching representatives of the Big 12 and Big Ten.

MUSIC CITY BOWL, 12/30/02, MINNESOTA vs ARKANSAS (-8.5, o/u 4: The Big East team was 4-0 SU & ATS in the previous Music City Bowls. Unfortunately, that conference isn’t represented this year. The underdog has covered the last three.

SEATTLE BOWL, 12/30/02, WAKE FOREST vs OREGON (-6, o/u 57): The inaugural Seattle Bowl was held last year when Georgia Tech defeated Stanford 24-14 as a 6 point underdog. This game matches the Sun Bowl for the worst records of the participants, a combined 13-11.

HUMANITARIAN BOWL, 12/31/02, IOWA ST vs BOISE ST (-10, o/u 6: The third time that Boise St plays in its host bowl game. The Broncos are 2-0 SU & ATS in the previous two. In all, the OVER is 4-1 in the history of the Humanitarian Bowl.

SUN BOWL, 12/31/02, PURDUE vs WASHINGTON (-3.5, o/u 5: The Sun Bowl could legitimately be renamed the underdog bowl, as the dog has covered the last seven games. However, the favorite has won each of the last two Sun Bowl games straight up.

LIBERTY BOWL, 12/31/02, TCU vs COLORADO ST (-5, o/u 53): The Liberty Bowl has been one of the lowest scoring bowl games over the past decade. Consistently burdened by total in the 60’s, this game has gone UNDER in nine of the last 10.

SILICON VALLEY CLASSIC, 12/31/02, FRESNO ST vs GEORGIA TECH (-3.5, o/u 47.5): Fresno St makes its third straight appearance in the Silicon Valley Classic. The Bulldogs have lost the last two as favorites, both SU & ATS. This year they are the underdog????

PEACH BOWL, 12/31/02, MARYLAND (-1, o/u 47) vs TENNESSEE: The representative of the SEC in the Peach Bowl has compiled a 4-1 SU & ATS record over the last five years. The lone defeat came last year however, as Auburn fell to North Carolina, 16-10.

SAN FRANCISCO BOWL, 12/31/02, AIR FORCE vs VIRGINIA TECH (-11.5, o/u 54.5): San Francisco’s Pac Bell Park hosts its first bowl game ever. The game matches two run oriented teams that bolted out of the gate in 2002, only to stumble mid-season. Start time on the East Coast is 10:30 PM!

COTTON BOWL, 1/1/03, LSU vs TEXAS (-10, o/u 46.5): Texas makes its third appearance since ’99 in its backyard New Year’s Day bowl. The UNDER has dominated the winning wagers in this bowl game, converting in six of the last seven games.

OUTBACK BOWL, 1/1/03, MICHIGAN vs FLORIDA (-1.5, o/u 47): Last year’s 31-28 South Carolina win over Ohio St marked the first time in six years that an Outback Bowl went OVER the total. It also improved the SEC’s record over the Big Ten in this game to 5-1 SU & ATS.

GATOR BOWL, 1/1/03, NC STATE vs NOTRE DAME (pk, o/u 40): Not counting last year’s Gator Bowl in which Florida St beat Virginia Tech 45-17 in a pick em’ game, the favorite is on a 5-0 SU & ATS run in the last five Gator Bowl games.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL, 1/1/03, PENN STATE (-4.5, o/u 50) vs AUBURN: In this bowl game, formerly known as the Florida Citrus Bowl, the underdog has covered three of the last four, though Tennessee won easily last year against Michigan. Also, five of the last six games have gone OVER the total.

ROSE BOWL, 1/1/03, WASHINGTON ST vs OKLAHOMA (-6, o/u 55): Prior to last year’s national title game win and cover by Miami, the underdog was on a five game ATS winning streak in the bowl game known as "the Grandaddy of them all".

SUGAR BOWL, 1/1/03, FLORIDA ST vs GEORGIA (-2.5, o/u 51.5): Florida St makes its fifth appearance in the Sugar Bowl since ’95. The favorite has dominated the recent action in this game, winning the last six straight up and going 5- 1 ATS in that span.

ORANGE BOWL, 1/2/03, IOWA vs USC (-5.5, o/u 57): The Orange Bowl has been one of the most lopsided bowl games over the past several years with just one of the last six games being decided by a single digit margin. Favorites are on a 4-1 SU & ATS stretch in the Orange Bowl.

FIESTA BOWL, 1/3/03, OHIO ST vs MIAMI (-13, o/u 50.5): The fifth annual battle for the BCS title and national championship. The previous games have been split 2-2 by the favorite and underdog and three of the games have gone UNDER. The straight up winner is 4-0 ATS.

[BettorsChat]

The Harmon Football Forecast

The Harmon Football Forecast is one of the most highly regarded and widely read sports features in the country, published in over 200 newspapers.

It all began when Bob Harmon began predicting college and NFL games in 1957. He devised a mathematical formula that picked winners correctly between 72 and 78 percent of the time; most seasons getting almost 75 percent of his picks right. Today, Jim Harmon and his staff are the only forecasters who predict exact scores and chart every college and pro team.

Saturday, December 21, 2002
Miami 27 *Minnesota 21
Their pass offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL, but the Dolphins should still be able to throw against the Vikings' woeful pass defense. Minnesota was a 13-7 winner the last time they met, in 2000.

Philadelphia 26 *Dallas 13
Scoring 31 unanswered points and racking up 447 yards of total offense, the Eagles scorched the Cowboys in Week Three, 44-13. Philly's defense should be dominant in its sixth straight win over Dallas.

San Francisco 30 *Arizona 14
Jeff Garcia threw four TD passes against the Cardinals seven weeks ago but the 49ers had to hold Arizona off to come out on top, 38-28. Arizona hasn't been the same since, and it's helpless to stop S.F.
Sunday, December 22, 2002

*Atlanta 35 Detroit 12
The Lions' only decent stats are in run defense, but Atlanta's ground attack is among the NFL's best. Detroit has, however, won nine of its last 11 against Atlanta, most recently 13-10 two years ago.

*Baltimore 24 Cleveland 21
After jumping out to a 23-0 lead over the Browns in October, the Ravens hung on to win 26-21, holding Cleveland to 62 rushing yards. With no consistency on either side of the ball, this is anyone's game.

*Carolina 17 Chicago 13
There aren't many offenses as unproductive as the Panthers', but one of them is the Bears', so Carolina's surprisingly solid defense will look like All-Pros. They've met once, in '95, a 31-27 Chicago win.

*Green Bay 27 Buffalo 19
Both teams' offensive strength is the pass, and both defenses excel against the pass, so this should be interesting. The Bills have won six of eight in this series, including their last matchup, in '00.

*Indianapolis 23 N.Y. Giants 17
The same goes for these two clubs: They prefer to pass -- though the Giants, like the Packers, can run, too -- and they defend best against the pass. The Colts won last, three years ago in N.Y., 27-19.

*New England 28 N.Y. Jets 21
In Week Two the Patriots punished a much different Jets team, 44-7, outgaining N.Y. by 232 yards and holding the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game. This time it could come down to an extra point.

New Orleans 25 *Cincinnati 16
The best that can be said of the Saints' offense is that it's consistently mediocre, and they'll have to run all day to beat the Bengals, who have a creditable pass defense. They haven't met in six years.

*Oakland 32 Denver 27
Raiders QB Rich Gannon picked apart the Broncos' secondary five weeks ago, completing a stunning 34 of 38 passes for 352 yards and three TD's in a huge 34-10 upset. He should pick up where he left off.

St. Louis 21 *Seattle 20
In the Rams' dominating 37-20 win over the Seahawks in October, Marshall Faulk ran for 183 of St. Louis's 478 yards and scored four TD's. There'll be no domination here, but the Rams should squeak by.

San Diego 27 *Kansas City 26
Speaking of squeakers, this rematch looks just as close as their Week Six slugfest, won by the Chargers, 35-34, on a TD with 14 seconds left. S.D. hasn't swept K.C. since '96, and this'll be an upset.

Tennessee 24 *Jacksonville 17
Behind Eddie George's 113 yards and two TD's, the Titans beat the Jaguars for the seventh time in their last nine battles 10 weeks ago, 23-14. Tennessee will again exploit Jacksonville's weak run defense.

*Washington 20 Houston 14
With neither team having anything to lose, we'd expect a wide-open contest -- if it weren't for the fact that most of their talent plays defense. Still, the Redskins should run just well enough to win.
Monday, December 23, 2002

*Tampa Bay 26 Pittsburgh 9
Here's some meaningless series history: The Steelers have won five of six face-offs with the Buccaneers, most recently 17-10 last year. Pittsburgh has been maddeningly inconsistent, while T.B. hasn't.

* Denotes Home Team

[BettorsChat]

Doctor Bob

***Clemson 34 Texas Tech (-5 ½) 30
The Tigers match up well with a Red Raiders' offense that throws the ball about 55 times per game and Clemson's offense should be able to score consistently against a sub-par Texas Tech defense.

Tech's offense is led by Big 12 Player of the Year Kliff Kingsbury, who averaged over 350 passing yards per game with 42 TD's and just 12 interceptions. However, the Red Raiders rarely throw the ball down the field and they averaged a more modest 6.2 yards per pass play this season (against teams that combine to allow just 5.8 yppp).

Clemson's defensive strength is defending the pass, as they allowed just 5.2 yppp this season (against teams that average 6.3 yppp on offense), so they match up very well with the Red Raiders' attack. The Tigers have certainly proven themselves against good passing teams, as they held Georgia, Florida State, Virginia, and NC State to a combined 131 passing yards per game at 4.9 yppp. Texas Tech, meanwhile, was limited to 5.5 yppp against the 6 teams they faced that are very good defending the pass (Ohio State, NC State, Texas A&M, Colorado, Texas, and Oklahoma). I calculate the Red Raiders to throw for an average of 5.4 yppp in this game, which will make it tough for them to pull away from a Clemson team that is likely to score points pretty easily.

Clemson's offense was nothing special this season until Charlie
Whitehurst took over as the starting quarterback for the final 4 games in place of Willie Simmons. Whitehurst responded by averaging a very good 7.1 yppp in his 4 starts (against teams that combine to allow 6.6 yppp). Texas Tech has allowed an average of 6.6 yppp this season (to teams that average 6.2 yppp on offense), so Whitehurst should have a big night throwing the ball in this game and the the Tigers below average rush attack (4.2 yards per rushing play against teams that allow 4.5 yprp) should put up decent numbers against a Red Raiders' defensive front that gave up 4.8 yprp to teams that average
4.5 yprp on offense.

Teams that are worse than average defending the run
usually lose their bowl games and don't cover as favorites and Texas Tech qualifies in a negative 4-25 ATS Bowl game statistical profile angle. The Tigers, meanwhile, qualify in a 69-32-5 ATS Bowl underdog situation and teams that under-performed in the regular season (Clemson was just 5-7 ATS this season) usually play up to their potential in Bowl games. In fact, the Tigers qualify in a 52-26-1 ATS contrary indicator that is 35-11-1 ATS when applying to underdogs. My mathematical model takes into account the favorable match up of Clemson's defensive strength going up against a Texas Tech team that is pass-heavy and the model picks the score of this game 32-32. So, we have good line value to go along with the good situation and statistical indicator that favors Clemson.

Clemson is a 3-Star Best Bet and I have no opinion on the total.

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Wednesday, December 25
Las Vegas Bowl
New Mexico State 20 UCLA (-10 ½) 26

It's tough to know how the Bruins will react to having their head coach, Bob Toledo, replaced by Ed Kezirian, who was the Assistant Director of Academic Services. While it will be good for the Bruins' players to have Kezirian around during finals, I'm not sure what good it will do to have him running the team. The duties of putting together an offensive and defensive game plan will go to the current coordinators and Kezirian will act as more of an administrator.

After losing to USC and Washington State by a combined score of 48-100 to end the season, I'm not sure that the Bruins even care much about this very minor bowl game against a no name team like New Mexico. I'm sure, however, that the Lobos care greatly about this game and plenty of fans are expected to make the trip
to Vegas in support of their team. New Mexico coach Rocky Long was the former defensive coordinator under Toledo at UCLA and

I'm sure he'll work long hours coming up with a defense that will help his team in their upset bid. Teams that end the season with a loss that relegates them to a less prestigious bowl game against an inferior foe often have trouble getting ready to play and I expect UCLA's focus in practices to be less than 100%. Favorites of more than 7 points in non-New Year's Bowl games are just 4-16-3 ATS if they failed to win their final regular
season game (which most likely would have put that team in a better bowl against a better team). The question now becomes whether New Mexico is capable of staying close to the physically superior Bruins and my feeling is that they can.

The Lobos' offense is based on the running of Dontrell Moore, who ran for 1117 yards in 8 starts at 4.8 ypr with 13 touchdowns. Moore should have a pretty good outing in this game against a UCLA defensive front that has allowed 4.8 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that combine to average 4.4 yprp on offense).

I don't expect New Mexico quarterback Casey Kelly (5.5 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.4 yppp) do provide to much support against a solid UCLA pass defense that has allowed 5.7 yppp to teams that average 6.4 yppp on offense. UCLA's offense could be greatly helped by the extra practice time that freshman quarterback's Olsen and Moore will get while preparing for this game. Olsen and Moore have split duty since star quarterback Cory Paus was injured in their loss at Cal and they have done a pretty decent job. While neither is approaching the 9.0 yards per pass play that Paus put up, the young quarterbacks have been improving and have put up pretty good numbers overall.

In their final 4 games, the Bruins averaged 6.6 yppp against teams that combine to allow just 5.7 yppp and they were able to throw for a respectable 5.7 yppp against the top defenses of USC and Washington State, who combine to allow just 4.8 yppp for the season. New Mexico is only a bit better than average defending the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp), so I expect UCLA to throw the ball pretty well in this game. UCLA's rushing attack is just average (4.1 yprp against teams that allow 4.1 yprp) and they should be slowed by a solid New Mexico defensive front that has yielded just 4.1 yprp to teams that combine to average 4.6 yprp on offense. Overall, my mathematical model picks the score 27.5 to 16.5, but the situation favors the Lobos, who will be fired up while UCLA's dedication to this game is in question.

I'll consider New Mexico a Strong Opinion and will also rate the Under as a Strong Opinion.
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Wednesday, December 25
Hawaii Bowl
HAWAII (-12) 30 Tulane 21
***UNDER

Tulane matches up as well as any team in the nation against Hawaii's pass heavy offense. The Rainbow Warriors call pass play about 75% of the time and that plays into Tulane's strength, which is defending the pass. Tulane is not just good against the pass, they rank as one of the best teams in the nation in that category, allowing just 4.4 yards per pass play (in Division 1A games against teams that combine to average 5.8 yppp on offense) while picking off an average of 1.7 passes per game.
Hawaii has averaged 6.8 yppp this season (against teams that allow 6.4 yppp), but they have thrown an average of 2.0 interceptions per game and I expect Timmy Chang to throw at least that many in this game.

Tulane has proven that they can slow down good pass attacks as they held Houston (6.7 yppp on offense), Texas (6.7 yppp), and Cincinnati (6.9 yppp) to an average of just 5.1 yppp and held all 3 good passing teams to less than 6.0 yppp. Hawaii, meanwhile, faced only 4 teams that were better than average defending the pass and they averaged just 25 points and 5.5 yppp in those games against BYU, Boise State, Cincinnati, and Alabama, who combine to allow an average of 5.2 yppp, which is considerably worse than Tulane's pass defense. The Warriors will be able
to run the ball well against a Green Wave defense that has surrendered 5.4 yards per rushing play to teams that average 4.3 yprp on offense. Hawaii should average over 6 yards per rushing play in this game, but they are not a team that is going to run the ball that often regardless of how bad the other team's run defense is. Hawaii faced 5 teams that allow more than 5 yprp for the season and they ran an average of only 22 times in those 5 games for an average of 5.7 yprp. Hawaii averaged 5.9
yprp for the season against all teams, so they certainly didn't take advantage of teams with a bad run defense.

While Hawaii's offense will be slowed, Tulane's offense is likely to
operate at their usual low level. The Green Wave averaged just 4.5 yards per play this season (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) and they average more than 5.4 yppl only against horrible defensive teams UL-Monroe and Navy. Hawaii has a pretty good defense, as they allowed just 5.1 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense), and they aren't likely to give up too many points to Tulane in this game. The Green Wave should have decent success on the ground against a Hawaii defensive front that allowed 4.7 yprp (to teams that average 4.5 yprp on offense), but quarterback J.P. Losman (4.8 yppp against teams that allow 6.1 yppp) won't have much success throwing against a good Hawaii secondary that yielded just 5.6 yppp this
season (to teams that combine to average 6.3 yppp on offense).

Tulane was +18 in turnover margin in their 11 Division 1A games while Hawaii was *13 in turnovers in 12 Division 1A games, and the Green Wave should certainly have an advantage in turnover margin in this game, which is why my math model forecasts them with 21 points. Hawaii's home field advantage doesn't mean much when favored by this many points, as home favorites of 7 points or more in Bowl games are just 2-5 ATS the
last 21 years.

I will lean with Tulane plus the points, but the UNDER is a
3-Star Best Bet in this game as both defenses have an advantage and my math model projects just 51 total points.

[torontopaul]

o-2 so far,(northcoast)I. like tt tonight and the over