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Cinci & N.Texas
North Texas is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS vs current CUSA teams since '98, but have won the L/2 ATS including earlier this year vs TCU, a 16-10 SU loss but ATS win as 12' pt AD's. Cincinnati beat that same TCU team in the season opener 36-26 as a 3' pt HF. The Bearcats are 2-0 SU & ATS vs current SBC teams since '98. These two teams played 16 straight years when both were members of the Missouri Valley Conference (last met 1973). NT leads the series 8-7-1 SU. The last meeting was a 52-3 blowout by UC. This will be the Bearcats' third straight bowl game which is a school record and they are 1-2 SU and ATS in the post season under HC Rick Minter. The Bearcats have been to the Motor City Bowl twice where they lost SU & ATS to MAC teams the last 2 years, and the Humanitarian Bowl where they defeated Utah St. UC is really fortunate to be here after a 2-5 SU start and their players and coaches have made that known. They have 13 senior starters compared to just 8 for NT. NT should however should have the home edge as they are here for the second straight year and their fans travelled very well last year to New Orleans. UC, on the other hand, had a very difficult time getting people to attend the Motor City Bowl which is much closer to home than this one. Each of their appearances in that game established a new low in attendance for that bowl. UC also had just 10 days to sell tickets and Bowl packages to their fans which is the most compact time frame in the NCAA this year. The Bearcats were just 2-5 SU vs their 7 bowl eligible foes but they were 5-2 ATS. They were the only CUSA team to defeat both TCU and Louisville who are both going to bigger bowls. Four of their 5 SU losses to the bowl eligible teams were by a combined 17 points. They also almost defeated Ohio St but they dropped 4 straight passes in the endzone to end that game. UC was 5-1 ATS on the road in 2002 with 4 straight covers including their upset at Louisville which delivered a Thursday Night ESPN Play Winner.
The Bearcats come in with our #46 rated offense and our #43 rated D. The offense did struggle at times in 2002 but it is a very potent unit that had 4 players on offense make either first or second team CUSA led by soph QB Gino Guidugli. Guidugli is avg 255 ypg (55%) with a 21-16 ratio. He struggled at midseason but in their final four Guidugli had 259 ypg (54%) and a super 10-3 ratio vs a much weaker slate of opposing defenses. In fact UC faced their weakest opposing defenses in three of their L/5 games. RB DeMarco McCleskey has 1276 yds (4.4) and 15 TD's on the ground. He is the CUSA's career TD leader. UC has the most talented WR corps in CUSA as WR LaDaris Vann has 70 rec (12.1) and has recorded at least 1 reception in 45 straight games, a UC record. WR Jon Olinger has great size at 6-3 225 and solid speed. He was the top deep threat with 20.1 ypc and 7 TD's and could create a big problem for the NT CB's who avg just 5-11 184. The UC OL paved the way for 3.5 ypc rush and allowed 24 sacks which are very average numbers. UC did gain 409 yds on a very tough TCU defense that held NT to just 219 yds. UC is +4 in TO ratio and avg 404 ypg total offense while their D allows 318 ypg. UC allowed 381 ypg in their first five but just 253 ypg total defense in their next 7 before allowing 458 yds to E Carolina in their finale. The DL allowed 200 ypg rush (3.9) in their L/2 games but had allowed just 66 ypg (2.1) in their previous 4 games. They will be facing a huge size deficit here as NT avg's 294 lbs per man on their OL with 3 senior starters while UC's DL also has 3 senior starters but avg's just 247 lbs per man, and their top backup is just 205 lbs. DE Antwan Peek was the #1 tackler with 90 and also had 6.5 sacks and 15.5 tfl. The LB's accounted for nearly half of their 33 team sacks but their tackle counts were low, as UC blitzes a lot leaving their DB's in man coverage. Their experienced DB's are #18 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing just 184 ypg (52%) and a 12-16 ratio. CB Blue Adams led the team with 6 int's, two of which he returned for TD's and SS Doug Monaghan was the #2 tackler with 88 despite missing their finale due to injury.
When NT made the trip here LY all the talk was about how they were only the 3rd team in history to play in a bowl with a losing record. NT is 7-5 SU this year with 6 wins vs SBC foes. The Eagles were 0-5 SU and 3-2 ATS vs non-conf teams but all 3 wins were as DD dogs at the start of the year. They did cover against Texas losing 27-0 as a 35 pt AD. Last year they made the trip to NO but forgot to show up for the game as they were crushed 45-20 by Colo St as an 11 pt dog. Of all the bowl teams LY, they returned the most starters with 19, so this team does have bowl experience. NT is a team known for their defense but has seen their offense come to life scoring 30+ pts in 3 of their final 4 games. The offense, which lost starting QB Scott Hall after the 1st game, struggled under rFr QB Andrew Smith. Smith did have 206 yds in the season finale at Middle Tenn. He is avg just 90 ypg (47%) with a 7-8 ratio. RB Kevin Galbreath had 1168 yds (4. but most of it came late vs SBC foes with 792 in the last 6 games. #2 TB Patrick Cobbs (PS#108) has 732 yds (4.7). The defense is led by the SBC Player of the Year, DL Brandon Kennedy. Kennedy led the SBC with 24 tfl and had 9 sks. He and 5 other defenders were voted to the 1st Tm SBC, while 3 others made the 2nd Tm. They have our #36 defense which allowed 14.4 ppg with 43 sks. The Eagles gave up 28 or more points just once (vs Alabama). They held TCU, a team that avg 31 ppg, to their lowest output of the year (16). They shutout an Idaho offense that had avg'd 21 ppg in 3 games vs the Pac 10 this year. The Eagles' defense allows 122 ypg on the ground and 167 ypg through the air (#44 pass D rankings). Surprisingly despite 25 takeaways by their aggressive defense, the Eagles are just +1 in TO's, due to the inexperience of their freshman QB.
NT comes in with our #61 rated special teams unit led by 2nd Tm SBC P Brad Kadlubar. He is avg 42.3 ypp, with 24 punts inside the 20 with only 9 TB's and 1 blocked. The Eagles' leading KR & PR is soph WR Ja'Mel Branch who is avg just 18.7 yds on KR's and 7.8 yds on PR's. True frosh K Nick Bazaldua is 22 of 28 on XP and 9 of 14 on FG with a long of 44 but has had 2 kicks blocked. The special teams defense allows just 18.3 yds on KR's but 11.3 yds on PR's. UC is rated #102 as they allow 22.6 yds per KR and 11.5 yds per PR. True frosh P Chet Ervin is avg 37.7 ypp with a net of just 30.8. He has had 2 blocked while UC has blocked one. Former Lou Groza Award Winner Jonathan Ruffin was a solid 17-20, including 3 of 5 from 40+ with a long of 49. KR Tedric Harwell emerged down the stretch with 23.9 yds per KR while PR Tye Keith is avg 8.2. NT only rates a slight edge here as their opponents were weaker and UC has the edge in FG's which are not accounted for in our overall rankings.
NT may have a winning record but they have been outgained by 10 ypg this year while UC has outgained their foes by 91 ypg. NT has the stronger record but 6 wins came vs weak SBC foes. UC has the edge of having just played 11 days ago so they should show no rust while NT has been off almost 2 weeks longer than UC. Teams with less than 20 days between their last game and their bowl are 7-2-1 ATS. Teams that lost in the same bowl the previous year were 5-2 ATS in that bowl the next year from 1996-2000 but were just 1-4 ATS last year. There has been no number posted on this game as of yet but we will call for the Bearcats to win by 10 and let the linesmaker decide who we like.
FORECAST: Cincinnati 27 N Texas 17 RATING: NO PLAY
Louisville & Marshall
For the 2nd straight year the GMAC Bowl has tried to set up a future NFL QB duel. Last year QB Byron Leftwich outlasted ECU's David Garrard (now a Jacksonville Jaguar) in the highest scoring bowl ever, 64-61 in 2 OT's. Another QB battle will likely take place here. These teams have had just one recent meeting and that came in the 1998 Motor City Bowl with Marshall prevailing 48-29 as a 3 pt dog. It is disappointing for the Cards to be here as they were touted as a dark horse National Title contender with a Heisman hopeful at QB prior to the season. The Cards have played their last 2 in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, however, and their players are excited about the opportunity to play here because they have 13 players from Alabama. Their fan following should remain strong as they have taken 55,000 fans over the last 2 years to the Liberty Bowl. HC John L. Smith is 1-4 SU & ATS in his career in bowls. He has turned UL into a perennial power in CUSA and this is their 5th bowl in the 5 years since he took over. UL had only played in 5 bowls in their history prior to Smith taking over. This will be the third bowl game for both of these experienced senior QB's and Dave Ragone is 1-1 both SU & ATS while Leftwich is 2-0 SU & ATS with both of his victories coming vs CUSA foes. UL did not fare well vs tougher foes in 2002 as they were just 2-4 both SU & ATS vs bowl caliber teams (including KY) while posting 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark vs foes with losing records. They lost by a 27-24 margin vs bowl eligible foes. UL does have a surface edge as the Herd are just 2-7 ATS their last 9 on grass. Both teams have 10 senior starters. The Cards are 13-8 ATS in their last 21 as a favorite. Marshall is 1-6 ATS as a dog since 2000 in the regular season, but are 3-1 ATS as a bowl dog the last 5 years. Marshall is also coming off an emotional victory in the MAC Championship game "taking the ring back" from Toledo who beat them last year. Louisville is coming off a disappointing loss to Houston, which cost them a share of the CUSA Title.
Louisville comes in with our #84 rated offense and our #41 rated D. QB Ragone is avg 224 ypg (55%) with a solid 23-10 ratio. He was the CUSA Offensive POY for an unprecedented 3rd straight year. Ragone is very crafty and also had 521 gross rush yds as he is not afraid to take a hit at 6-4, 255. RB Henry Miller is the top rusher with 595 yds (4.3) and 12 TD's. He was injured down the stretch and avg'd just 14 ypg in their last 3 but should be 100% for this game. WR Damien Dorsey was the top receiving threat with 52 grabs (14.5). He was 1st Tm CUSA at WR and as a PR. TE Ronnie Ghent was Ragone's favorite target prior to being injured in their 6th game and there is a chance he may return here. Despite missing the last 6 games Ghent was a 1st Tm CUSA selection giving UL that honor at the TE position for the 6th straight year. The OL battled injuries and inexperience all year allowing 43 sacks while paving the way for just 3.1 ypc. Versus their six bowl eligible foes they allowed 27 of those 43 sacks and paved the way for just 1.6 ypc. Four of those opponents, however, have Top 45 defenses while Marshall's just #79. The Cards' defense is a very solid unit that was very consistent in 2002. DB Curry Burns and LB Rod Day each topped 100 tackles and both were 2nd Tm CUSA. DE Dewayne White was named to the 1st Tm CUSA defense and led the team with 9.5 sacks while the other DE, Devon Thomas, added 7 sacks. The Cards front four allowed just 114 ypg rushing (2. while the team recorded 33 sacks. Their DB's are #34 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing 203 ypg (48%) but with a 17-8 ratio. In 2000-2001 the Cards had an NCAA best 96 sacks and their 44 interceptions were #2 in the NCAA over that span. They were +11 TO's in 2000 and +14 in 2001. This year they are -13 in TO ratio but the defense forced 7 TO's in their last 3 games after forcing just 8 in their first 9. The Cards avg'd 339 ypg total offense in 2002 while their D surrendered 318 ypg. As mentioned, the offense struggled vs tougher opponents and interestingly they had an avg yardage edge of 412-293 vs the weaker opponents while the bowl caliber teams outgained them 342-267.
This is Marshall's 6th straight bowl. They have gone every year since moving back to the IA level in '97. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and the only loss was in their 1st bowl back in '97, so they have won 4 straight including 3 wins against current CUSA teams in those bowls. They also have won their only regular season game against a current CUSA team, defeating Army 35-25 as a 5 pt AD in '97. Marshall comes in with our #18 rated offense and our #79 rated defense. The Herd offense is led by Leftwich who was a Heisman candidate and will probably be a 1st Round DC next year. He is avg 365 ypg (a super 69%) with a solid 26-9 ratio. He has five 400+ yd games including 404 yds in the MAC Championship game vs Toledo. He sat down in the 2H of a lot of games this year or his numbers would be even higher. He has been slowed with a leg injury, but missed only one game and one other start because of it. In the last few games he has been hobbled and operated from the shotgun all game. He led the comeback victory against Toledo throwing the game winner with :40 left to win 49-45 as a 4 pt HF. He was voted the MAC MVP for the 2nd year in a row. He has 3 main receivers, each with over 850 yds receiving. They are Denero Marriott with 76 rec (11.3), Josh Davis with 73 rec (16.0) and Darius Watts with 68 rec (14.7). Marshall's running game has been up and down all year. They avg 128 ypg, but in their two games vs bowl teams this year they avg'd just 40 ypg. The running game has been mostly split between 2 RB's: Brandon Carey has 642 yds (4.6) with two 100 yd games and Franklin Wallace has 539 yds (4.7) also with two 100 yd games. The Herd's offensive line has also played very well this year giving up just 18 sacks on 531 pass attempts. Marshall's defense has improved as the year has gone on. They have done very well vs the pass giving up just 158 ypg and only allowing 48% completions. The Herd's weakness however has been against the run where they have allowed 182 ypg (4.4).
The Cards rate a MASSIVE edge on special teams at #4 in our ratings while Marshall is back at #81. In 2002 the Cards have blocked an NCAA best 11 kicks in 12 games including 9 punts. KR Broderick Clark was honored as the CUSA Special Teams POY avg an NCAA best 31.8 yds per KR. Clark matched the school and league marks with a pair of return TD's, including a CUSA record 100 yd return vs Kentucky. PR Damien Dorsey was 1st Tm CUSA and was #9 in the NCAA with 15.4 yds per PR including a TD. K Nate Smith was 12 of 19 on FG's with a long of 52, however he was just 4 of 9 from 40+. Smith also doubled as the P after replacing Wade Tydlacka and avg'd 36.5 yds per boot while dropping 16 inside the 20. Tydlacka still handles the KO's and UL is allowing a solid 19.2 yds per KR. The Cards avg'd just 32.1 net yds per punt but that number actually improved down the stretch when Smith was inserted as the P and they reverted to the old school rugby style of punting, virtually eliminating the chance of a big return. Marshall's Curtis Head handles both the kicking and the punting. He hit 15 of 20 FG's with a long of 53, but was just 5 of 9 from 40+ and 44 of 48 on XP's. Head is avg 41.9 ypp with 11 inside the 20 and only 1 TB. The MU kick coverage teams are giving up only 19 yds per KR but 14.2 per PR. The Herd has just 1 punt block and gave up 1 PR for a TD. The return team is avg only 15.9 yds on KR's and a poor 5.2 yds on PR's.
Marshall has less time off since their last game was played on Dec 7th and UL played last on Nov 30th. MU also has the edge of being familiar with the bowl having played here last year. They also have done better in bowl games as it is their chance in the national spotlight and L'ville has to be disappointed to end up here after starting off the year with much higher hopes. Marshall has the edge on offense with the much stronger O-line but the Cards have the defensive edge as well as the special teams edge. UL has not played well vs bowl caliber teams this year while Marshall's D has gotten stronger down the stretch. This is an important game for Marshall’s program and the MAC has done very well in recent bowls and we side with the motivated Herd who have the intangibles on their side as long as they are a dog (line not known at presstime).
FORECAST: Marshall 31 Louisville 30 RATING: 2H MARSHALL (if dog)
Clemson vs. Texas Tech
This is the first-ever meeting between the two schools & the 25th bowl appearance for both teams. HC Tommy Bowden is the 1st coach to take Clemson to a bowl game each of his 1st 4 yrs. Prior to Clem's win over La Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl LY, 49-24, the Tigers had not won a bowl game SU since '93. In the 5 bowl losses in-between, Clemson lost by an avg of 15.8 ppg. The Tigers are just 2-4-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams this year being outscored 30-21 and outgained 359-311 & did not beat a ranked opp this season for the first time in Bowden's 4 seasons. The only common opponent these two faced was NC State. Clem lost to the Pack 38-6, was outgained 369-229, but that was with QB Willie Simmons in what turned out to be his last game as a starter this season. Tech lost to NC St at home 51-48 in OT as a 1' fav despite running & passing for over 200 yds vs the Wolfpack. Tech's 5-19-1 SU record in the post season is among the NCAA's worst marks & has become a sticking point with their alumni. Prior to last year's game HC Mike Leach stressed the importance of a bowl win as Raiders fans had stayed away from games played outside of Texas due to their poor performances but TT came up short 19-16 vs Iowa in the Alamo Bowl. Many Tech fans were upset that they were bumped out of the Houston Bowl this year after OSU promised the organizers of that bowl that the Cowboys could deliver 25,000-30,000 bowl starved fans after their big upset of OU. TT's players & staff however were happy to spend the holidays in the warm sun of the Magic Kingdom. Leach is 0-2 SU & ATS in bowls as a HC & TT's last SU & ATS win came in 1995 vs Air Force in the Copper Bowl. Tech last played in this bowl in 1977 losing to Florida St 40-17. This is fairly foreign territory for the Raiders as the last time they played in the state of Florida was a 40-16 loss at Florida St in 1987 as 17' dogs. TT played 10 bowl caliber teams this year going 5-5 ATS in those but were outscored in those games 34-36 but outgained those foes 453-412. Tech was 2-5 on grass ATS & avg just 17.8 ppg in those 5 losses.
Clem enters this game 7-5, but the Tigers have won 3 of their L/4 games SU. Throughout the season, many Tiger fans & boosters expressed their concerns about Bowden continuing to be the HC, especially after the FSU game when many felt Bowden was too relaxed & too chummy with Daddy Bowden & Noles asst coaches. However, following their season finale victory over S Car, AD Don Phillips expressed his support & commitment, but a loss here could quickly change everyone's mind. Prior to hiring of the new HC at Baylor, it was reported that Bowden interviewed for the job, but Baylor would not buy out his current contract with Clemson. The Tigers have 22 seniors. Clemson has our #60 rated offense. The Tigers are 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS with QB Charlie Whitehurst starting. He is avg 161 ypg (62%) with a 9-2 ratio, including a school record 34 completions for 420 yds in a win over Duke in his 1st start. Their top rusher is soph Yusef Kelly (PS#24), who has 505 yds (4.2) & took over for the injured Bernard Rambert at the start of the year. Rambert (PS#32) has 485 yds (4.3) & 6 TD's. The Tigers do have some talented WR's. JJ McKelvey has 50 catches (15.0) & Kevin Youngblood has 52 (8.. WR Derrick Hamilton (PS#29) leads the team in all purpose yds with 48 catches (11.0) & 208 yds rushing (9.9), in addition to 583 KR yds & 331 PR yds. The OL only avg 6-2, 286 and has given up 27 sacks and allowed the team to rush for 127 ypg (3.6). Clem has our #43 ranked defense. The defense is led by LB John Leake, who has 153 tkls & 5 tfl, while LB Rodney Thomas has 152 & 7 tfl. Soph LB Eric Sampson has been permanently dismissed from the team for academics. Sampson started all 12 reg season games & was #4 in tkls. Nick Eason is the key to the DL (62 tkls, 9 tfl) & is Clem's only 1st Tm ACC player. DE Bryant McNeal has 64 tkls, 8 sks, 5 tfl. The DL avg's 6-5, 277 with 2 seniors. The secondary has been the strength ranked in the Top 15 in total int's (20), compared to LY when the secondary was one of their weak spots. This year Clem has our #35 ranked pass eff D & even though they are allowing 58% comp, they have held opp to a 15-20 ratio & 175 ypg. FS Eric Meekins (PS#47) leads this groups with 92 tkls. True frosh CB Justin Miller (PS#53) has 7 int's, while Sr Brian Mance (PS #12) has six.
When you talk about the Raiders #3 ranked high octane offense you immediately think of Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury owns 39 school records, 13 Big 12 records & 7 NCAA marks in his career. He finished 13th in the NCAA in pass efficiency & 1st in passing yds, avg 357 ypg (67%) with a 42-12 ratio. For all of his success Kingsbury has avg’d 308 ypg (61.2%) with a 5-5 ratio in 2 bowl starts (0-2 SU & ATS) and said after the bowl bid was announced that he wants to go out in style. TT has used 7 different starting combinations this year on the OL due to injuries. The health improved as the year went on however as they were able to start the same combo the L/4. OG Rex Richards was consistently the highest graded OL (2nd Tm Big 12). Tech has one of the nation's 10 biggest OL's & avg's 6-5, 314 across with 1 senior starter. The "Fat Boys" paved the way for a greatly improved running game as RB Taurean Henderson had 733 rush yds (5.1) as a rFr & also was the team's leading receiver with 90 (6.4). Six players had 44 or more receptions. Wes Welker led the team in receiving yds with 1034 & ranked #16 in the NCAA with 83 rec's. Welker also ran for 214 yds (7.9) on reverses. TE Mickey Peters also added a dimension to the Tech offense allowing Leach to use double TE sets for the first time here. Peters had 57 catches (11.6) with 7 TD's. Coming into the season Tech's DC Greg McMackin said that the Raiders had their deepest squad yet & thought that this would be their breakout year. Instead of making strides TT took a step back as they ranked as our #73 defense allowing a hefty 179 ypg rushing (4.4) vs bowl teams with just 25 sks (had 40 in 2001). The front 7 did improve those numbers down the stretch until they were bulldozed for 329 yds vs OU. LB Lawrence Flugence set an NCAA record for most tackles per game (14.4) & led the Big 12 for the 3rd year in a row. DE Aaron Hunt started the season slowly but eventually set the Big 12 record for career sacks & finished with 7 sks & 9.5 tfl. S Ryan Aycock was the team's #2 tackler with 143 and the team also has 2 solid senior CB's in Joselio Hanson & Ricky Sailor. TT finished with our #78 pass efficiency defense allowing 234 ypg (57%) with a 25-12 ratio. Leach already has lost 2 assistants as RB coach Art Briles left to become the head man at Houston and special teams coach Manny Matsakis left to become the new HC of SW Texas St.
Clemson has our #98 ranked special teams unit. Wynn Kopp handles the punting duties with 57 (37.0, 32.5 net), only 3 TB's & 16 inside the 20. Aaron Hunt hit 17 of 21 FG's with a long of 47 & was 36 of 37 in PAT's. As mentioned above Derrick Hamilton was the main return guy with 33 PR's (10.0) & 27 KR's (21.6). Justin Miller was also solid on KR's with 11 (37.0) & 1 TD. The Tigers avg 24.5 on KR's, but allowed 22.8 & opp's returned 3 kicks for TD's. The Tigers have 39 total PR's (9.4), while allowing 34 (9.4) & 1 returned for a TD. TT has our #50 special teams unit. P Clinton Greathouse is avg 39.5 with a 33.6 net. K Robert Treece hit 11-17 FG's including 6-9 from 40+ but did miss the potential game winner vs NC St. The return game was strong once again as PR Welker had a 12.8 avg with 2 TD's. KR Ivory McCann avg'd 25.3 ypr in 2001 but those number were whittled down to 18.3 ypr this year as he took too many KO's out of the endzone. He lost those duties for a time to true frosh Vincent Meeks who is avg 25.9 ypr with 1 TD. Tech allowed 21.4 ypr on KR's & a generous 13.6 on punts & blocked 2 kicks.
Tech was the unofficial Texas Champ with upset wins over Texas and Texas A&M along with wins over SMU and Baylor while Clemson generally underachieved. Tech rates the intangible edge as Bowden interviewed for the Baylor job (is that an upgrade??) and the Tiger players must question how long he will be around. Based on the way these teams performed this year, Tech should be a full TD favorite but looking at the checklist (page 10) Clemson has the talent edge and will have the surface and crowd edges as well. This one should be a shootout and even though Tech rates a LARGE edge at QB, the Tigers defend the pass better and should be able to stay within the generous number and an outright upset is no surprise.
FORECAST: CLEMSON (+) 37 Texas Tech 40
RATING: 2* Clemson
New Mex vs. Ucla
This will be the first meeting between these 2 teams. N Mex is making just its 2nd bowl appearance in 41 yrs & its 1st under 5th year coach Rocky Long. The Lobos' last bowl appearance was in the 1997 Insight.com Bowl, where they were defeated by Ariz, 20-14 as 9 pt dogs. NM is the only school in the nation to increase its win total every year since 1998. Rocky Long, the MWC Coach of Year TY, was UCLA's DC from 1996-97. The Lobos are 6-2 ATS vs Pac 10 teams since 1976. At UCLA Long was on Bob Toledo's staff and that would have made for an interesting coaching matchup had Toledo not been "released" from his head coaching duties on Dec 9th. In a bit of an unusual move, Assistant Director of Academic Services Ed Kezirian was named the interim HC. Kezirian last was an assistant for the Bruins in 1992 and has never been a HC at any level. UCLA's coordinators and current staff members will put together the game plan for this contest. Interim coaches are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 appearances in bowl games but we have never seen a non-assistant take control. The Bruins played against 9 bowl caliber opponents and were 4-5 SU & ATS vs them being outscored 28-31 and outgained by a 401-375 margin. The Lobos met up with 4 bowl caliber teams and were a lowly 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS. NM was outscored 36-15 and were outgained by an avg of 403-278. These two teams have played 2 common opponents in Colo St & SDSt. UCLA was 2-0 SU & ATS winning by an avg score of 37-13 while NM was 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS with the avg score being 15-15. However, Cory Paus was at QB for UCLA in those games and he is out for the year. Not surprisingly UCLA had the offensive advantage with 386 ypg and 272 vs 2 of them while NM had the defensive edge 218 ypg vs 274. This should be a showcase for two of the top rFr RB's in the West, NM's Dontrell Moore (PS#97) and UCLA's Tyler Ebell (PS#15). The Lobos' fans traditionally travel well to Vegas for the MWC Basketball Tourney, so they should have a good following here.
When QB Paus went down vs Cal in their 7th game the Bruins explosive offense went with him. They went with 2 true FR in Drew Olson (PS#17) & Matt Moore (PS#19). Olson started the last 4 and has thrown for 688 yds (51%) with a 3-3 ratio. There was a definite dropoff in offensive production as in the 6 games prior to Paus' injury UCLA avg 33.5 ppg, 437 total ypg with 276 ypg pass. In the 5 after the injury the Bruins numbers dropped to 29.4 ppg, 325 ypg with 207 pass ypg. Ebell took over the starting role in game 5 and rushed for 924 yds (4.4) this year. The teams top receivers are WR Craig Bragg who led UCLA with 51 rec (16.7) and 8 TD's and TE Mike Seidman (PS#1) who had 5 TD's among his 41 rec. The offensive line has good size avg 6-5, 297 and has a pair of seniors at the T's with one being Pac 10 1st Teamer Mike Saffer. Overall UCLA has a young unit with 3 Fr & 4 So in the starting lineup and have our #41 ranked offense. UCLA has our #24 ranked defense. They were torched for 100 pts in their last 2 games but the USC (#2 offense) & Wash St (#14) offenses have done that to many teams. The DL has good size avg 6-3, 292 and welcomed the return of DT Rodney Leisle (6-3, 307) vs Wash St. Leisle is a terrific run stopper and can crush the pocket while usually drawing double teams. DE Dave Ball led the team with 10.5 sacks while MLB Marcus Reese led the team with 95 tackles. The LB corps supplied the team's #2 & #3 tacklers as well in WLB Spencer Havner (90) and SLB Brandon Chillar (72). UCLA has our #15 ranked pass efficiency D allowing 228 ypg (50%) with a 19-16 ratio. The secondary is led by CB's Sr Ricky Manning (PS#16) and Matt Ware (PS#2) both of whom also have MLB contracts. The S's are young but talented in true frosh SS Jarrad Page (PS#20) and So FS Ben Emanuel (PS#1. Manning and Emanuel tied for the team lead with 4 int.
In a bowl season filled with disappointments, Coach Long had his wish granted, a Christmas Day bowl in Las Vegas vs UCLA. After starting the year 2-4, the Lobos won 5 of their final 7. The Lobos have 8 seniors currently participating, but 10 overall as TB Quincy Wright (67-496-7.4-4 in 4 games) and SS David Hall (28 tkls, 4 tfl, 10 games) are out for the season. The Lobos have scored the last 19 times they have reached the red zone, including 18 TD's despite having just our #99 offense. What looked like it could be a bleak offensive year after Quincy Wright was lost for the year has turned out to be better than the Lobos anticipated. RFr Dontrell Moore took over in week 4 and rushed for 1117 yds (4. & 13 TD's, earning 1st Tm MWC. QB Casey Kelly broke his hand vs TT and only missed 1 game & returned to play with a soft cast. Kelly is avg 138.9 ypg (58%) with a 13-6 ratio & has rushed for 229 yds and 6 TD's. WR Joe Manning has 33 catches (11.2) and Dwight Counter has 30 (10.9) and is the Lobos top PR. The OL avg's 6-4, 318 and have paved the way for 4.4 ypc & only allowed 13 sks. The OL is led by RG Claude Terrell & RT Jason Lenzmeier, both earned 2nd Tm MWC honors and they are young with no senior starters. NM has our #46 rated defense. Their 3-3-5 defense poses many problems for teams unfamiliar with blitzes & the D has matured throughout the season. The Lobos finished in the Top 20 in the NCAA the previous 2 years in total defense, but fell to #43 this season yielding 346 ypg. However, the Lobos def coaches redefined the D in a late season bye week & the Lobo's only allowed 88 rush ypg & 160 pass ypg in their L/4 games vs the MWC's top QB's. The DL avg 6-1, 271. DE DJ Renteria has 32 tkls, 9 tfl, 2 sks, & 4 fmbl recoveries. DE Dan Kegler has 46 tkls, 7 tfl, & 7 sks. The D is only allowing 3.2 rush ypc & have sacked opposing QB's 34 times. The LB's are the top 3 tkl'rs on the team. MLB Charles Moss has 99 tkls, 6.5 tfl & 3 int's, RLB Nick Speegle has 84 tkls, 4 tfl & 4 sks and LLB Bill Strother has 82 tkls, 7.5 tfl, & 3.5 sks. The pass D is allowing 227.5 ypc and have int'd the ball 14 times, but have given up 25 passing TD's. JUCO Sidney Wiley is the top DB and he has 34 tkls with 4 pbu. David Crockett took advantage of his 38" Vjump & broke up 7 passes with 26 tkls.
UCLA comes into this game with our #37 spec teams unit. They are led by Pac 10 1st Tm P Nate Fikse, who also took over the PK duties midseason from a struggling Chris Griffith. Fikse is avg 41.5 with a net of 35.6 while hitting 10-11 FG's and 15-16 PAT's. #2 WR Tab Perry is the teams KR and had a solid 25.0 avg on 23 ret's ranking #19 in the NCAA. #1 WR Craig Bragg is the teams PR (11.9). The spec teams ret def are avg allowing 22.2 on KR's and 12.0 on PR's. N Mex has our #23 rated spec teams. Tyler Gaus handles the punt duties with 73 boots (40.7, 37.0 net), 23 inside the 20, 6 TB's, but did have 1 blk'd. Kenny Byrd was 1 of 3 K's who tried FG's & all 3 combined for only 5 of 9 with a long of 32, but Byrd was 26 of 27 on PAT's. Dwight Counter, who is #23 in the nation in PR's (13.4) & earned 1st Tm MWC sp teams honors. NM has 28 PR's (13.0, 1 TD) and are only allowing 6.4 ypr. Brandon Ratcliff had 9 KR's (23.3). The Lobo's avg 19.5 on KR's, while allowing 20.0.
While UCLA has a 7-4 edge in Senior starters, the Lobos have 17 upperclassmen starters to just 11 for the younger Bruins. UCLA clearly has the talent edge as they are loaded with VHT's while NM has ZERO. UCLA has the edges on both offense and defense but we wonder about their mental state here with a "head coach" that has not coached since 1992. Off a huge loss to their rival USC, they needed to beat Wash St to save Toledo's job and came up far short losing by THREE TD's. UCLA did play 9 bowl teams only losing by an avg of 31-28 while NM was pounded by the 4 bowl teams they faced by an avg of 36-15. If this were a regular season game and Toledo was in charge we would peg the Bruins to cover as they handled both of the MWC foes they faced this year by an avg of 23.5 ppg. NM just figures to be more excited to be here, has the coaching edge and likely the fan edge. The Lobos also figure to be much more focused and intense in their pre game practices and that will make them a dangerous dog here.
FORECAST: NEW MEXICO (+) 17 UCLA 21
RATING: 2* New Mexico + the points
Hawaii Bowl
This is their 3rd meeting. The previous two were played here at Aloha Stadium and UH has been a DD fav both times. UH is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS covering the most recent meeting here in 1993. UH did host CUSA member Cincinnati this year and won 20-19. Cincy however covered as a 3' pt AD in a game that saw numerous questionable ref calls and a fight. That was their lone mutual opponent and Tulane beat Cincy 35-17 as a 4' pt HD. It was a misleading final however as Cincy had a 19-15 FD edge and outgained the Greenies 435-255 (5 TO's). Tulane is 1-3 both SU & ATS in their last four bowl appearances with their most recent coming in 1998 in the Liberty Bowl. They won that one 41-27 as a 7 pt fav in their first game under current HC Frank Scelfo to end a 12-0 season. Tulane has 13 seniors on their travel roster including eight who are starters and six who travelled to the Liberty Bowl in their redshirt year. TU has 9 starters who are underclassmen while UH has 17 upperclassmen starters. Tulane had hoped to go to the New Orleans Bowl to face a weaker foe that would accommodate their fans for travelling purposes, but due to the Cincy-Hawaii incident they ended up here. UH naturally has the homefield edge. UH will be making just their fourth bowl appearance in their history but they have won and covered each of their last two including the 1999 Oahu Bowl here at Aloha Stadium in HC June Jones's first season. UH was 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS in their last three in 2002 as a DD HF while Tulane was 5-2 ATS as dog. Each team played four bowl eligible opponents and UH was 2-2 ATS while Tulane was 3-1 ATS. UH struggled offensively vs those foes scoring 17.3 ppg less against vs them while avg 119 ypg less total offense. Tulane also struggled offensively against bowl opponents and avg 12.1 ppg less and 95 ypg less total offense.
UH comes in rating a HUGE edge on offense with our #17 unit (TU #97) and their defense is #75. UH was #1 in the NCAA in passing offense and in the Top 10 in total offense and scoring offense as they avg 501 ypg and 36.5 ppg. QB Timmy Chang (PS#21) is avg 335 ypg (56%) with a 25-22 ratio. He started off slowly avg just 246 ypg (46%) and a 5-7 ratio in their first 4, sharing time with both of his backups. In their final 9 Chang had 374 ypg (58%) and a 20-15 ratio as his backups attempted just 37 passes. He will be facing the #17 DB's in our pass efficiency D ratings and Tulane allowed just 178 ypg (51%) and a 10-21 ratio. RB John West paced the squad with 442 yds on the ground (7., mostly in a reserve role and starter Thero Mitchell had 10 TD's. WR Justin Colbert was #16 in the NCAA in rpg with 83 catches (13. & was 1st Tm WAC. WR Britton Komine has 56 rec (15.2) and 10 TD's. 46 of Komine's catches came in the final 9 games. The UH OL paved way for 5.1 ypc rush and allowed just 19 sacks. They were held to -12 yds rush vs the tough Alabama D and surrendered 7 of those sacks in their final two games when two starters were injured. They should be healthy here however and they have a 38 lbs per man edge on the OL. UH played Top 50 defenses in two of their last three games and three times overall in 2002 and avg'd 16.1 ppg less and 158 ypg less on offense against those tougher defenses. The Warrior defense allows 27.2 ppg and 396 ypg total D. The unit was very solid all year and is led by a LB corps that has three senior starters. LB Pisa Tinoisamoa is 1st Tm WAC and the top tackler with 121 and also led the team with 6.5 sacks and 11.5 tfl. LB Chris Brown was the #2 tackler with 80. The UH front four allowed 171 ypg rush (4.0) but did record 35 sacks and is a very deep unit. The UH DB's allowed 319 yards passing to IAA Eastern Illinois in their opener but did not allow another opponent to top 300 yds passing until their finale when SDSt erupted for 507 passing. The UH defense faced 7 offenses that are in the lower third of our offensive ratings like Tulane and allowed 12.4 ppg less and 100 ypg less total D to those opponents.
Tulane avg just 307 ypg offense while their D surrenders a respectable 368 ypg total defense. They are #3 in the NCAA in TO margin (+20) forcing 40 TO's. TU did face 8 defenses that are similar in ranking to UH and against those teams they avg 31.1 ppg and 339 ypg while going 5-2 ATS. QB J.P. Losman (PS#6) is avg 186 ypg (58%) with a very solid 19-10 ratio. Losman struggled at times and was benched in favor of running QB Derrick Joseph (87 rush yds) from time to time. Losman now faces the UH DB's who are a solid #26 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing 225 ypg (51%) and a 21-18 ratio. Tulane did struggle vs their bowl eligible foes with just 156 ypg passing (45%) but did have a 4-2 ratio. RB Mewelde Moore has 1022 yds (4.0) and was also the top receiver with 46 rec (10.1). His numbers are way down from 2001 as teams were able to key on him more this year and force Losman and the defense to beat them. The top WR is Tristan Smith who had 42 rec (just 8.9). A key addition here may be CB/WR/KR/PR Lynaris Elpheage (PS #30) who scored on a run, an int and a KR in 2002. Elpheage was inserted at WR in their finale and had the rushing TD and a catch. He is the playmaker that they have been missing since WR Roydell Williams was injured and HC Scelfo has talked about using him more. The OL is a very young unit that paved way for just 3.0 ypc while allowing 40 sacks. They did have the same starting five in all 12 games. While Tulane has just our #57 rated defense they are the most improved unit in the NCAA. The DL is comprised of 4 senior starters and the team recorded 40 sacks. They still allowed 190 ypg rush (4.5) but many of their opponents did note after facing them that TU's DL was able to control the line of scrimmage. True frosh LB Anthony Cannon was the #1 tackler with 110 and converted RB Brandt Quick was #3 with 93 in just 7 starts. CB Elpheage was #3 in the NCAA in interceptions ( garnering 1st Tm CUSA honors. They allowed just 125 ypg passing (51%) and a 1-5 ratio in their L/4 games but all of those were vs running teams. They faced just one Top 25 offense in 2002 and that was their 49-0 loss to Texas. That was a misleading final however as Texas did not have a scoring drive that was longer than 48 yds and after that game the Longhorn coaches even said that this was the most athletic D-line that they had faced to that point.
The Green Wave rate the special teams edge with our #47 unit while UH is #67. Tulane return man Elpheage is #24 in the NCAA in PR's (13.3) and #20 in KR's with 24.8 ypr and a TD. Tulane also had a PR TD on a lateral play. They allowed 11.8 yds per PR and 22.6 per KR and allowed a PR TD. One of the two punts that they blocked was recovered for a TD. K/P Seth Marler was the Lou Groza Award Winner in 2001 but saw his numbers drop due to the addition of the punting chores. Marler was 18-28 on FG's including 7 of 12 from 40+ with a long of 51. He had four brutal games where he was just 3-12 on FG's but otherwise was solid. Marler was 2nd Tm CUSA as a P with an avg of 42.7 (net 35.3). The Warriors did enter the year with a Top 10 unit but KR/PR Chad Owens, who set several team and NCAA records, did not return any kicks until late in the year when he was coming off of an injury and trying to work his way back into the WR rotation. Owens finished with 15 KR's (26. and avg 7.4 on PR's. Michael Brewster was the primary KR and he was #21 in the NCAA in KR avg with 24.7 yds per KR. UH allows a solid 20.7 yds per KR but also allows 14.8 per PR. P Mat McBriar was 1st Tm WAC and is rated as the best P available for the 2003 NFL draft. He is avg 43.7 yds per boot (net 34.9). He did have two blocked. UH blk'd two punts in 2002. K Justin Ayat regressed some from a solid 2001 campaign and made 15 of 23 FG's with a long of 50. He was however just 1-7 from 40+ yds.
Hawaii has a large edge on offense and the home field edge as well. This should be more business as usual for them as they have no sight-seeing to do unlike the Green Wave. Tulane has a slight defensive edge and special teams edge and matches up well with a top-notch pass defense to battle the Hawaii pass attack. Tulane's athletic defensive front has 40 sacks this year and will put pressure on Chang. This one may be lower scoring than expected with two underrated defenses and we lean with the double digit dog that has the more balanced offense.
FORECAST: Tulane (+) 24 HAWAII 31
RATING: 3* Tulane + the points
Cinci & N.Texas
North Texas is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS vs current CUSA teams since '98, but have won the L/2 ATS including earlier this year vs TCU, a 16-10 SU loss but ATS win as 12' pt AD's. Cincinnati beat that same TCU team in the season opener 36-26 as a 3' pt HF. The Bearcats are 2-0 SU & ATS vs current SBC teams since '98. These two teams played 16 straight years when both were members of the Missouri Valley Conference (last met 1973). NT leads the series 8-7-1 SU. The last meeting was a 52-3 blowout by UC. This will be the Bearcats' third straight bowl game which is a school record and they are 1-2 SU and ATS in the post season under HC Rick Minter. The Bearcats have been to the Motor City Bowl twice where they lost SU & ATS to MAC teams the last 2 years, and the Humanitarian Bowl where they defeated Utah St. UC is really fortunate to be here after a 2-5 SU start and their players and coaches have made that known. They have 13 senior starters compared to just 8 for NT. NT should however should have the home edge as they are here for the second straight year and their fans travelled very well last year to New Orleans. UC, on the other hand, had a very difficult time getting people to attend the Motor City Bowl which is much closer to home than this one. Each of their appearances in that game established a new low in attendance for that bowl. UC also had just 10 days to sell tickets and Bowl packages to their fans which is the most compact time frame in the NCAA this year. The Bearcats were just 2-5 SU vs their 7 bowl eligible foes but they were 5-2 ATS. They were the only CUSA team to defeat both TCU and Louisville who are both going to bigger bowls. Four of their 5 SU losses to the bowl eligible teams were by a combined 17 points. They also almost defeated Ohio St but they dropped 4 straight passes in the endzone to end that game. UC was 5-1 ATS on the road in 2002 with 4 straight covers including their upset at Louisville which delivered a Thursday Night ESPN Play Winner.
The Bearcats come in with our #46 rated offense and our #43 rated D. The offense did struggle at times in 2002 but it is a very potent unit that had 4 players on offense make either first or second team CUSA led by soph QB Gino Guidugli. Guidugli is avg 255 ypg (55%) with a 21-16 ratio. He struggled at midseason but in their final four Guidugli had 259 ypg (54%) and a super 10-3 ratio vs a much weaker slate of opposing defenses. In fact UC faced their weakest opposing defenses in three of their L/5 games. RB DeMarco McCleskey has 1276 yds (4.4) and 15 TD's on the ground. He is the CUSA's career TD leader. UC has the most talented WR corps in CUSA as WR LaDaris Vann has 70 rec (12.1) and has recorded at least 1 reception in 45 straight games, a UC record. WR Jon Olinger has great size at 6-3 225 and solid speed. He was the top deep threat with 20.1 ypc and 7 TD's and could create a big problem for the NT CB's who avg just 5-11 184. The UC OL paved the way for 3.5 ypc rush and allowed 24 sacks which are very average numbers. UC did gain 409 yds on a very tough TCU defense that held NT to just 219 yds. UC is +4 in TO ratio and avg 404 ypg total offense while their D allows 318 ypg. UC allowed 381 ypg in their first five but just 253 ypg total defense in their next 7 before allowing 458 yds to E Carolina in their finale. The DL allowed 200 ypg rush (3.9) in their L/2 games but had allowed just 66 ypg (2.1) in their previous 4 games. They will be facing a huge size deficit here as NT avg's 294 lbs per man on their OL with 3 senior starters while UC's DL also has 3 senior starters but avg's just 247 lbs per man, and their top backup is just 205 lbs. DE Antwan Peek was the #1 tackler with 90 and also had 6.5 sacks and 15.5 tfl. The LB's accounted for nearly half of their 33 team sacks but their tackle counts were low, as UC blitzes a lot leaving their DB's in man coverage. Their experienced DB's are #18 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing just 184 ypg (52%) and a 12-16 ratio. CB Blue Adams led the team with 6 int's, two of which he returned for TD's and SS Doug Monaghan was the #2 tackler with 88 despite missing their finale due to injury.
When NT made the trip here LY all the talk was about how they were only the 3rd team in history to play in a bowl with a losing record. NT is 7-5 SU this year with 6 wins vs SBC foes. The Eagles were 0-5 SU and 3-2 ATS vs non-conf teams but all 3 wins were as DD dogs at the start of the year. They did cover against Texas losing 27-0 as a 35 pt AD. Last year they made the trip to NO but forgot to show up for the game as they were crushed 45-20 by Colo St as an 11 pt dog. Of all the bowl teams LY, they returned the most starters with 19, so this team does have bowl experience. NT is a team known for their defense but has seen their offense come to life scoring 30+ pts in 3 of their final 4 games. The offense, which lost starting QB Scott Hall after the 1st game, struggled under rFr QB Andrew Smith. Smith did have 206 yds in the season finale at Middle Tenn. He is avg just 90 ypg (47%) with a 7-8 ratio. RB Kevin Galbreath had 1168 yds (4. but most of it came late vs SBC foes with 792 in the last 6 games. #2 TB Patrick Cobbs (PS#108) has 732 yds (4.7). The defense is led by the SBC Player of the Year, DL Brandon Kennedy. Kennedy led the SBC with 24 tfl and had 9 sks. He and 5 other defenders were voted to the 1st Tm SBC, while 3 others made the 2nd Tm. They have our #36 defense which allowed 14.4 ppg with 43 sks. The Eagles gave up 28 or more points just once (vs Alabama). They held TCU, a team that avg 31 ppg, to their lowest output of the year (16). They shutout an Idaho offense that had avg'd 21 ppg in 3 games vs the Pac 10 this year. The Eagles' defense allows 122 ypg on the ground and 167 ypg through the air (#44 pass D rankings). Surprisingly despite 25 takeaways by their aggressive defense, the Eagles are just +1 in TO's, due to the inexperience of their freshman QB.
NT comes in with our #61 rated special teams unit led by 2nd Tm SBC P Brad Kadlubar. He is avg 42.3 ypp, with 24 punts inside the 20 with only 9 TB's and 1 blocked. The Eagles' leading KR & PR is soph WR Ja'Mel Branch who is avg just 18.7 yds on KR's and 7.8 yds on PR's. True frosh K Nick Bazaldua is 22 of 28 on XP and 9 of 14 on FG with a long of 44 but has had 2 kicks blocked. The special teams defense allows just 18.3 yds on KR's but 11.3 yds on PR's. UC is rated #102 as they allow 22.6 yds per KR and 11.5 yds per PR. True frosh P Chet Ervin is avg 37.7 ypp with a net of just 30.8. He has had 2 blocked while UC has blocked one. Former Lou Groza Award Winner Jonathan Ruffin was a solid 17-20, including 3 of 5 from 40+ with a long of 49. KR Tedric Harwell emerged down the stretch with 23.9 yds per KR while PR Tye Keith is avg 8.2. NT only rates a slight edge here as their opponents were weaker and UC has the edge in FG's which are not accounted for in our overall rankings.
NT may have a winning record but they have been outgained by 10 ypg this year while UC has outgained their foes by 91 ypg. NT has the stronger record but 6 wins came vs weak SBC foes. UC has the edge of having just played 11 days ago so they should show no rust while NT has been off almost 2 weeks longer than UC. Teams with less than 20 days between their last game and their bowl are 7-2-1 ATS. Teams that lost in the same bowl the previous year were 5-2 ATS in that bowl the next year from 1996-2000 but were just 1-4 ATS last year. There has been no number posted on this game as of yet but we will call for the Bearcats to win by 10 and let the linesmaker decide who we like.
FORECAST: Cincinnati 27 N Texas 17 RATING: NO PLAY
Louisville & Marshall
For the 2nd straight year the GMAC Bowl has tried to set up a future NFL QB duel. Last year QB Byron Leftwich outlasted ECU's David Garrard (now a Jacksonville Jaguar) in the highest scoring bowl ever, 64-61 in 2 OT's. Another QB battle will likely take place here. These teams have had just one recent meeting and that came in the 1998 Motor City Bowl with Marshall prevailing 48-29 as a 3 pt dog. It is disappointing for the Cards to be here as they were touted as a dark horse National Title contender with a Heisman hopeful at QB prior to the season. The Cards have played their last 2 in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, however, and their players are excited about the opportunity to play here because they have 13 players from Alabama. Their fan following should remain strong as they have taken 55,000 fans over the last 2 years to the Liberty Bowl. HC John L. Smith is 1-4 SU & ATS in his career in bowls. He has turned UL into a perennial power in CUSA and this is their 5th bowl in the 5 years since he took over. UL had only played in 5 bowls in their history prior to Smith taking over. This will be the third bowl game for both of these experienced senior QB's and Dave Ragone is 1-1 both SU & ATS while Leftwich is 2-0 SU & ATS with both of his victories coming vs CUSA foes. UL did not fare well vs tougher foes in 2002 as they were just 2-4 both SU & ATS vs bowl caliber teams (including KY) while posting 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark vs foes with losing records. They lost by a 27-24 margin vs bowl eligible foes. UL does have a surface edge as the Herd are just 2-7 ATS their last 9 on grass. Both teams have 10 senior starters. The Cards are 13-8 ATS in their last 21 as a favorite. Marshall is 1-6 ATS as a dog since 2000 in the regular season, but are 3-1 ATS as a bowl dog the last 5 years. Marshall is also coming off an emotional victory in the MAC Championship game "taking the ring back" from Toledo who beat them last year. Louisville is coming off a disappointing loss to Houston, which cost them a share of the CUSA Title.
Louisville comes in with our #84 rated offense and our #41 rated D. QB Ragone is avg 224 ypg (55%) with a solid 23-10 ratio. He was the CUSA Offensive POY for an unprecedented 3rd straight year. Ragone is very crafty and also had 521 gross rush yds as he is not afraid to take a hit at 6-4, 255. RB Henry Miller is the top rusher with 595 yds (4.3) and 12 TD's. He was injured down the stretch and avg'd just 14 ypg in their last 3 but should be 100% for this game. WR Damien Dorsey was the top receiving threat with 52 grabs (14.5). He was 1st Tm CUSA at WR and as a PR. TE Ronnie Ghent was Ragone's favorite target prior to being injured in their 6th game and there is a chance he may return here. Despite missing the last 6 games Ghent was a 1st Tm CUSA selection giving UL that honor at the TE position for the 6th straight year. The OL battled injuries and inexperience all year allowing 43 sacks while paving the way for just 3.1 ypc. Versus their six bowl eligible foes they allowed 27 of those 43 sacks and paved the way for just 1.6 ypc. Four of those opponents, however, have Top 45 defenses while Marshall's just #79. The Cards' defense is a very solid unit that was very consistent in 2002. DB Curry Burns and LB Rod Day each topped 100 tackles and both were 2nd Tm CUSA. DE Dewayne White was named to the 1st Tm CUSA defense and led the team with 9.5 sacks while the other DE, Devon Thomas, added 7 sacks. The Cards front four allowed just 114 ypg rushing (2. while the team recorded 33 sacks. Their DB's are #34 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing 203 ypg (48%) but with a 17-8 ratio. In 2000-2001 the Cards had an NCAA best 96 sacks and their 44 interceptions were #2 in the NCAA over that span. They were +11 TO's in 2000 and +14 in 2001. This year they are -13 in TO ratio but the defense forced 7 TO's in their last 3 games after forcing just 8 in their first 9. The Cards avg'd 339 ypg total offense in 2002 while their D surrendered 318 ypg. As mentioned, the offense struggled vs tougher opponents and interestingly they had an avg yardage edge of 412-293 vs the weaker opponents while the bowl caliber teams outgained them 342-267.
This is Marshall's 6th straight bowl. They have gone every year since moving back to the IA level in '97. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and the only loss was in their 1st bowl back in '97, so they have won 4 straight including 3 wins against current CUSA teams in those bowls. They also have won their only regular season game against a current CUSA team, defeating Army 35-25 as a 5 pt AD in '97. Marshall comes in with our #18 rated offense and our #79 rated defense. The Herd offense is led by Leftwich who was a Heisman candidate and will probably be a 1st Round DC next year. He is avg 365 ypg (a super 69%) with a solid 26-9 ratio. He has five 400+ yd games including 404 yds in the MAC Championship game vs Toledo. He sat down in the 2H of a lot of games this year or his numbers would be even higher. He has been slowed with a leg injury, but missed only one game and one other start because of it. In the last few games he has been hobbled and operated from the shotgun all game. He led the comeback victory against Toledo throwing the game winner with :40 left to win 49-45 as a 4 pt HF. He was voted the MAC MVP for the 2nd year in a row. He has 3 main receivers, each with over 850 yds receiving. They are Denero Marriott with 76 rec (11.3), Josh Davis with 73 rec (16.0) and Darius Watts with 68 rec (14.7). Marshall's running game has been up and down all year. They avg 128 ypg, but in their two games vs bowl teams this year they avg'd just 40 ypg. The running game has been mostly split between 2 RB's: Brandon Carey has 642 yds (4.6) with two 100 yd games and Franklin Wallace has 539 yds (4.7) also with two 100 yd games. The Herd's offensive line has also played very well this year giving up just 18 sacks on 531 pass attempts. Marshall's defense has improved as the year has gone on. They have done very well vs the pass giving up just 158 ypg and only allowing 48% completions. The Herd's weakness however has been against the run where they have allowed 182 ypg (4.4).
The Cards rate a MASSIVE edge on special teams at #4 in our ratings while Marshall is back at #81. In 2002 the Cards have blocked an NCAA best 11 kicks in 12 games including 9 punts. KR Broderick Clark was honored as the CUSA Special Teams POY avg an NCAA best 31.8 yds per KR. Clark matched the school and league marks with a pair of return TD's, including a CUSA record 100 yd return vs Kentucky. PR Damien Dorsey was 1st Tm CUSA and was #9 in the NCAA with 15.4 yds per PR including a TD. K Nate Smith was 12 of 19 on FG's with a long of 52, however he was just 4 of 9 from 40+. Smith also doubled as the P after replacing Wade Tydlacka and avg'd 36.5 yds per boot while dropping 16 inside the 20. Tydlacka still handles the KO's and UL is allowing a solid 19.2 yds per KR. The Cards avg'd just 32.1 net yds per punt but that number actually improved down the stretch when Smith was inserted as the P and they reverted to the old school rugby style of punting, virtually eliminating the chance of a big return. Marshall's Curtis Head handles both the kicking and the punting. He hit 15 of 20 FG's with a long of 53, but was just 5 of 9 from 40+ and 44 of 48 on XP's. Head is avg 41.9 ypp with 11 inside the 20 and only 1 TB. The MU kick coverage teams are giving up only 19 yds per KR but 14.2 per PR. The Herd has just 1 punt block and gave up 1 PR for a TD. The return team is avg only 15.9 yds on KR's and a poor 5.2 yds on PR's.
Marshall has less time off since their last game was played on Dec 7th and UL played last on Nov 30th. MU also has the edge of being familiar with the bowl having played here last year. They also have done better in bowl games as it is their chance in the national spotlight and L'ville has to be disappointed to end up here after starting off the year with much higher hopes. Marshall has the edge on offense with the much stronger O-line but the Cards have the defensive edge as well as the special teams edge. UL has not played well vs bowl caliber teams this year while Marshall's D has gotten stronger down the stretch. This is an important game for Marshall’s program and the MAC has done very well in recent bowls and we side with the motivated Herd who have the intangibles on their side as long as they are a dog (line not known at presstime).
FORECAST: Marshall 31 Louisville 30 RATING: 2H MARSHALL (if dog)
Clemson vs. Texas Tech
This is the first-ever meeting between the two schools & the 25th bowl appearance for both teams. HC Tommy Bowden is the 1st coach to take Clemson to a bowl game each of his 1st 4 yrs. Prior to Clem's win over La Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl LY, 49-24, the Tigers had not won a bowl game SU since '93. In the 5 bowl losses in-between, Clemson lost by an avg of 15.8 ppg. The Tigers are just 2-4-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams this year being outscored 30-21 and outgained 359-311 & did not beat a ranked opp this season for the first time in Bowden's 4 seasons. The only common opponent these two faced was NC State. Clem lost to the Pack 38-6, was outgained 369-229, but that was with QB Willie Simmons in what turned out to be his last game as a starter this season. Tech lost to NC St at home 51-48 in OT as a 1' fav despite running & passing for over 200 yds vs the Wolfpack. Tech's 5-19-1 SU record in the post season is among the NCAA's worst marks & has become a sticking point with their alumni. Prior to last year's game HC Mike Leach stressed the importance of a bowl win as Raiders fans had stayed away from games played outside of Texas due to their poor performances but TT came up short 19-16 vs Iowa in the Alamo Bowl. Many Tech fans were upset that they were bumped out of the Houston Bowl this year after OSU promised the organizers of that bowl that the Cowboys could deliver 25,000-30,000 bowl starved fans after their big upset of OU. TT's players & staff however were happy to spend the holidays in the warm sun of the Magic Kingdom. Leach is 0-2 SU & ATS in bowls as a HC & TT's last SU & ATS win came in 1995 vs Air Force in the Copper Bowl. Tech last played in this bowl in 1977 losing to Florida St 40-17. This is fairly foreign territory for the Raiders as the last time they played in the state of Florida was a 40-16 loss at Florida St in 1987 as 17' dogs. TT played 10 bowl caliber teams this year going 5-5 ATS in those but were outscored in those games 34-36 but outgained those foes 453-412. Tech was 2-5 on grass ATS & avg just 17.8 ppg in those 5 losses.
Clem enters this game 7-5, but the Tigers have won 3 of their L/4 games SU. Throughout the season, many Tiger fans & boosters expressed their concerns about Bowden continuing to be the HC, especially after the FSU game when many felt Bowden was too relaxed & too chummy with Daddy Bowden & Noles asst coaches. However, following their season finale victory over S Car, AD Don Phillips expressed his support & commitment, but a loss here could quickly change everyone's mind. Prior to hiring of the new HC at Baylor, it was reported that Bowden interviewed for the job, but Baylor would not buy out his current contract with Clemson. The Tigers have 22 seniors. Clemson has our #60 rated offense. The Tigers are 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS with QB Charlie Whitehurst starting. He is avg 161 ypg (62%) with a 9-2 ratio, including a school record 34 completions for 420 yds in a win over Duke in his 1st start. Their top rusher is soph Yusef Kelly (PS#24), who has 505 yds (4.2) & took over for the injured Bernard Rambert at the start of the year. Rambert (PS#32) has 485 yds (4.3) & 6 TD's. The Tigers do have some talented WR's. JJ McKelvey has 50 catches (15.0) & Kevin Youngblood has 52 (8.. WR Derrick Hamilton (PS#29) leads the team in all purpose yds with 48 catches (11.0) & 208 yds rushing (9.9), in addition to 583 KR yds & 331 PR yds. The OL only avg 6-2, 286 and has given up 27 sacks and allowed the team to rush for 127 ypg (3.6). Clem has our #43 ranked defense. The defense is led by LB John Leake, who has 153 tkls & 5 tfl, while LB Rodney Thomas has 152 & 7 tfl. Soph LB Eric Sampson has been permanently dismissed from the team for academics. Sampson started all 12 reg season games & was #4 in tkls. Nick Eason is the key to the DL (62 tkls, 9 tfl) & is Clem's only 1st Tm ACC player. DE Bryant McNeal has 64 tkls, 8 sks, 5 tfl. The DL avg's 6-5, 277 with 2 seniors. The secondary has been the strength ranked in the Top 15 in total int's (20), compared to LY when the secondary was one of their weak spots. This year Clem has our #35 ranked pass eff D & even though they are allowing 58% comp, they have held opp to a 15-20 ratio & 175 ypg. FS Eric Meekins (PS#47) leads this groups with 92 tkls. True frosh CB Justin Miller (PS#53) has 7 int's, while Sr Brian Mance (PS #12) has six.
When you talk about the Raiders #3 ranked high octane offense you immediately think of Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury owns 39 school records, 13 Big 12 records & 7 NCAA marks in his career. He finished 13th in the NCAA in pass efficiency & 1st in passing yds, avg 357 ypg (67%) with a 42-12 ratio. For all of his success Kingsbury has avg’d 308 ypg (61.2%) with a 5-5 ratio in 2 bowl starts (0-2 SU & ATS) and said after the bowl bid was announced that he wants to go out in style. TT has used 7 different starting combinations this year on the OL due to injuries. The health improved as the year went on however as they were able to start the same combo the L/4. OG Rex Richards was consistently the highest graded OL (2nd Tm Big 12). Tech has one of the nation's 10 biggest OL's & avg's 6-5, 314 across with 1 senior starter. The "Fat Boys" paved the way for a greatly improved running game as RB Taurean Henderson had 733 rush yds (5.1) as a rFr & also was the team's leading receiver with 90 (6.4). Six players had 44 or more receptions. Wes Welker led the team in receiving yds with 1034 & ranked #16 in the NCAA with 83 rec's. Welker also ran for 214 yds (7.9) on reverses. TE Mickey Peters also added a dimension to the Tech offense allowing Leach to use double TE sets for the first time here. Peters had 57 catches (11.6) with 7 TD's. Coming into the season Tech's DC Greg McMackin said that the Raiders had their deepest squad yet & thought that this would be their breakout year. Instead of making strides TT took a step back as they ranked as our #73 defense allowing a hefty 179 ypg rushing (4.4) vs bowl teams with just 25 sks (had 40 in 2001). The front 7 did improve those numbers down the stretch until they were bulldozed for 329 yds vs OU. LB Lawrence Flugence set an NCAA record for most tackles per game (14.4) & led the Big 12 for the 3rd year in a row. DE Aaron Hunt started the season slowly but eventually set the Big 12 record for career sacks & finished with 7 sks & 9.5 tfl. S Ryan Aycock was the team's #2 tackler with 143 and the team also has 2 solid senior CB's in Joselio Hanson & Ricky Sailor. TT finished with our #78 pass efficiency defense allowing 234 ypg (57%) with a 25-12 ratio. Leach already has lost 2 assistants as RB coach Art Briles left to become the head man at Houston and special teams coach Manny Matsakis left to become the new HC of SW Texas St.
Clemson has our #98 ranked special teams unit. Wynn Kopp handles the punting duties with 57 (37.0, 32.5 net), only 3 TB's & 16 inside the 20. Aaron Hunt hit 17 of 21 FG's with a long of 47 & was 36 of 37 in PAT's. As mentioned above Derrick Hamilton was the main return guy with 33 PR's (10.0) & 27 KR's (21.6). Justin Miller was also solid on KR's with 11 (37.0) & 1 TD. The Tigers avg 24.5 on KR's, but allowed 22.8 & opp's returned 3 kicks for TD's. The Tigers have 39 total PR's (9.4), while allowing 34 (9.4) & 1 returned for a TD. TT has our #50 special teams unit. P Clinton Greathouse is avg 39.5 with a 33.6 net. K Robert Treece hit 11-17 FG's including 6-9 from 40+ but did miss the potential game winner vs NC St. The return game was strong once again as PR Welker had a 12.8 avg with 2 TD's. KR Ivory McCann avg'd 25.3 ypr in 2001 but those number were whittled down to 18.3 ypr this year as he took too many KO's out of the endzone. He lost those duties for a time to true frosh Vincent Meeks who is avg 25.9 ypr with 1 TD. Tech allowed 21.4 ypr on KR's & a generous 13.6 on punts & blocked 2 kicks.
Tech was the unofficial Texas Champ with upset wins over Texas and Texas A&M along with wins over SMU and Baylor while Clemson generally underachieved. Tech rates the intangible edge as Bowden interviewed for the Baylor job (is that an upgrade??) and the Tiger players must question how long he will be around. Based on the way these teams performed this year, Tech should be a full TD favorite but looking at the checklist (page 10) Clemson has the talent edge and will have the surface and crowd edges as well. This one should be a shootout and even though Tech rates a LARGE edge at QB, the Tigers defend the pass better and should be able to stay within the generous number and an outright upset is no surprise.
FORECAST: CLEMSON (+) 37 Texas Tech 40
RATING: 2* Clemson
New Mex vs. Ucla
This will be the first meeting between these 2 teams. N Mex is making just its 2nd bowl appearance in 41 yrs & its 1st under 5th year coach Rocky Long. The Lobos' last bowl appearance was in the 1997 Insight.com Bowl, where they were defeated by Ariz, 20-14 as 9 pt dogs. NM is the only school in the nation to increase its win total every year since 1998. Rocky Long, the MWC Coach of Year TY, was UCLA's DC from 1996-97. The Lobos are 6-2 ATS vs Pac 10 teams since 1976. At UCLA Long was on Bob Toledo's staff and that would have made for an interesting coaching matchup had Toledo not been "released" from his head coaching duties on Dec 9th. In a bit of an unusual move, Assistant Director of Academic Services Ed Kezirian was named the interim HC. Kezirian last was an assistant for the Bruins in 1992 and has never been a HC at any level. UCLA's coordinators and current staff members will put together the game plan for this contest. Interim coaches are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 appearances in bowl games but we have never seen a non-assistant take control. The Bruins played against 9 bowl caliber opponents and were 4-5 SU & ATS vs them being outscored 28-31 and outgained by a 401-375 margin. The Lobos met up with 4 bowl caliber teams and were a lowly 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS. NM was outscored 36-15 and were outgained by an avg of 403-278. These two teams have played 2 common opponents in Colo St & SDSt. UCLA was 2-0 SU & ATS winning by an avg score of 37-13 while NM was 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS with the avg score being 15-15. However, Cory Paus was at QB for UCLA in those games and he is out for the year. Not surprisingly UCLA had the offensive advantage with 386 ypg and 272 vs 2 of them while NM had the defensive edge 218 ypg vs 274. This should be a showcase for two of the top rFr RB's in the West, NM's Dontrell Moore (PS#97) and UCLA's Tyler Ebell (PS#15). The Lobos' fans traditionally travel well to Vegas for the MWC Basketball Tourney, so they should have a good following here.
When QB Paus went down vs Cal in their 7th game the Bruins explosive offense went with him. They went with 2 true FR in Drew Olson (PS#17) & Matt Moore (PS#19). Olson started the last 4 and has thrown for 688 yds (51%) with a 3-3 ratio. There was a definite dropoff in offensive production as in the 6 games prior to Paus' injury UCLA avg 33.5 ppg, 437 total ypg with 276 ypg pass. In the 5 after the injury the Bruins numbers dropped to 29.4 ppg, 325 ypg with 207 pass ypg. Ebell took over the starting role in game 5 and rushed for 924 yds (4.4) this year. The teams top receivers are WR Craig Bragg who led UCLA with 51 rec (16.7) and 8 TD's and TE Mike Seidman (PS#1) who had 5 TD's among his 41 rec. The offensive line has good size avg 6-5, 297 and has a pair of seniors at the T's with one being Pac 10 1st Teamer Mike Saffer. Overall UCLA has a young unit with 3 Fr & 4 So in the starting lineup and have our #41 ranked offense. UCLA has our #24 ranked defense. They were torched for 100 pts in their last 2 games but the USC (#2 offense) & Wash St (#14) offenses have done that to many teams. The DL has good size avg 6-3, 292 and welcomed the return of DT Rodney Leisle (6-3, 307) vs Wash St. Leisle is a terrific run stopper and can crush the pocket while usually drawing double teams. DE Dave Ball led the team with 10.5 sacks while MLB Marcus Reese led the team with 95 tackles. The LB corps supplied the team's #2 & #3 tacklers as well in WLB Spencer Havner (90) and SLB Brandon Chillar (72). UCLA has our #15 ranked pass efficiency D allowing 228 ypg (50%) with a 19-16 ratio. The secondary is led by CB's Sr Ricky Manning (PS#16) and Matt Ware (PS#2) both of whom also have MLB contracts. The S's are young but talented in true frosh SS Jarrad Page (PS#20) and So FS Ben Emanuel (PS#1. Manning and Emanuel tied for the team lead with 4 int.
In a bowl season filled with disappointments, Coach Long had his wish granted, a Christmas Day bowl in Las Vegas vs UCLA. After starting the year 2-4, the Lobos won 5 of their final 7. The Lobos have 8 seniors currently participating, but 10 overall as TB Quincy Wright (67-496-7.4-4 in 4 games) and SS David Hall (28 tkls, 4 tfl, 10 games) are out for the season. The Lobos have scored the last 19 times they have reached the red zone, including 18 TD's despite having just our #99 offense. What looked like it could be a bleak offensive year after Quincy Wright was lost for the year has turned out to be better than the Lobos anticipated. RFr Dontrell Moore took over in week 4 and rushed for 1117 yds (4. & 13 TD's, earning 1st Tm MWC. QB Casey Kelly broke his hand vs TT and only missed 1 game & returned to play with a soft cast. Kelly is avg 138.9 ypg (58%) with a 13-6 ratio & has rushed for 229 yds and 6 TD's. WR Joe Manning has 33 catches (11.2) and Dwight Counter has 30 (10.9) and is the Lobos top PR. The OL avg's 6-4, 318 and have paved the way for 4.4 ypc & only allowed 13 sks. The OL is led by RG Claude Terrell & RT Jason Lenzmeier, both earned 2nd Tm MWC honors and they are young with no senior starters. NM has our #46 rated defense. Their 3-3-5 defense poses many problems for teams unfamiliar with blitzes & the D has matured throughout the season. The Lobos finished in the Top 20 in the NCAA the previous 2 years in total defense, but fell to #43 this season yielding 346 ypg. However, the Lobos def coaches redefined the D in a late season bye week & the Lobo's only allowed 88 rush ypg & 160 pass ypg in their L/4 games vs the MWC's top QB's. The DL avg 6-1, 271. DE DJ Renteria has 32 tkls, 9 tfl, 2 sks, & 4 fmbl recoveries. DE Dan Kegler has 46 tkls, 7 tfl, & 7 sks. The D is only allowing 3.2 rush ypc & have sacked opposing QB's 34 times. The LB's are the top 3 tkl'rs on the team. MLB Charles Moss has 99 tkls, 6.5 tfl & 3 int's, RLB Nick Speegle has 84 tkls, 4 tfl & 4 sks and LLB Bill Strother has 82 tkls, 7.5 tfl, & 3.5 sks. The pass D is allowing 227.5 ypc and have int'd the ball 14 times, but have given up 25 passing TD's. JUCO Sidney Wiley is the top DB and he has 34 tkls with 4 pbu. David Crockett took advantage of his 38" Vjump & broke up 7 passes with 26 tkls.
UCLA comes into this game with our #37 spec teams unit. They are led by Pac 10 1st Tm P Nate Fikse, who also took over the PK duties midseason from a struggling Chris Griffith. Fikse is avg 41.5 with a net of 35.6 while hitting 10-11 FG's and 15-16 PAT's. #2 WR Tab Perry is the teams KR and had a solid 25.0 avg on 23 ret's ranking #19 in the NCAA. #1 WR Craig Bragg is the teams PR (11.9). The spec teams ret def are avg allowing 22.2 on KR's and 12.0 on PR's. N Mex has our #23 rated spec teams. Tyler Gaus handles the punt duties with 73 boots (40.7, 37.0 net), 23 inside the 20, 6 TB's, but did have 1 blk'd. Kenny Byrd was 1 of 3 K's who tried FG's & all 3 combined for only 5 of 9 with a long of 32, but Byrd was 26 of 27 on PAT's. Dwight Counter, who is #23 in the nation in PR's (13.4) & earned 1st Tm MWC sp teams honors. NM has 28 PR's (13.0, 1 TD) and are only allowing 6.4 ypr. Brandon Ratcliff had 9 KR's (23.3). The Lobo's avg 19.5 on KR's, while allowing 20.0.
While UCLA has a 7-4 edge in Senior starters, the Lobos have 17 upperclassmen starters to just 11 for the younger Bruins. UCLA clearly has the talent edge as they are loaded with VHT's while NM has ZERO. UCLA has the edges on both offense and defense but we wonder about their mental state here with a "head coach" that has not coached since 1992. Off a huge loss to their rival USC, they needed to beat Wash St to save Toledo's job and came up far short losing by THREE TD's. UCLA did play 9 bowl teams only losing by an avg of 31-28 while NM was pounded by the 4 bowl teams they faced by an avg of 36-15. If this were a regular season game and Toledo was in charge we would peg the Bruins to cover as they handled both of the MWC foes they faced this year by an avg of 23.5 ppg. NM just figures to be more excited to be here, has the coaching edge and likely the fan edge. The Lobos also figure to be much more focused and intense in their pre game practices and that will make them a dangerous dog here.
FORECAST: NEW MEXICO (+) 17 UCLA 21
RATING: 2* New Mexico + the points
Hawaii Bowl
This is their 3rd meeting. The previous two were played here at Aloha Stadium and UH has been a DD fav both times. UH is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS covering the most recent meeting here in 1993. UH did host CUSA member Cincinnati this year and won 20-19. Cincy however covered as a 3' pt AD in a game that saw numerous questionable ref calls and a fight. That was their lone mutual opponent and Tulane beat Cincy 35-17 as a 4' pt HD. It was a misleading final however as Cincy had a 19-15 FD edge and outgained the Greenies 435-255 (5 TO's). Tulane is 1-3 both SU & ATS in their last four bowl appearances with their most recent coming in 1998 in the Liberty Bowl. They won that one 41-27 as a 7 pt fav in their first game under current HC Frank Scelfo to end a 12-0 season. Tulane has 13 seniors on their travel roster including eight who are starters and six who travelled to the Liberty Bowl in their redshirt year. TU has 9 starters who are underclassmen while UH has 17 upperclassmen starters. Tulane had hoped to go to the New Orleans Bowl to face a weaker foe that would accommodate their fans for travelling purposes, but due to the Cincy-Hawaii incident they ended up here. UH naturally has the homefield edge. UH will be making just their fourth bowl appearance in their history but they have won and covered each of their last two including the 1999 Oahu Bowl here at Aloha Stadium in HC June Jones's first season. UH was 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS in their last three in 2002 as a DD HF while Tulane was 5-2 ATS as dog. Each team played four bowl eligible opponents and UH was 2-2 ATS while Tulane was 3-1 ATS. UH struggled offensively vs those foes scoring 17.3 ppg less against vs them while avg 119 ypg less total offense. Tulane also struggled offensively against bowl opponents and avg 12.1 ppg less and 95 ypg less total offense.
UH comes in rating a HUGE edge on offense with our #17 unit (TU #97) and their defense is #75. UH was #1 in the NCAA in passing offense and in the Top 10 in total offense and scoring offense as they avg 501 ypg and 36.5 ppg. QB Timmy Chang (PS#21) is avg 335 ypg (56%) with a 25-22 ratio. He started off slowly avg just 246 ypg (46%) and a 5-7 ratio in their first 4, sharing time with both of his backups. In their final 9 Chang had 374 ypg (58%) and a 20-15 ratio as his backups attempted just 37 passes. He will be facing the #17 DB's in our pass efficiency D ratings and Tulane allowed just 178 ypg (51%) and a 10-21 ratio. RB John West paced the squad with 442 yds on the ground (7., mostly in a reserve role and starter Thero Mitchell had 10 TD's. WR Justin Colbert was #16 in the NCAA in rpg with 83 catches (13. & was 1st Tm WAC. WR Britton Komine has 56 rec (15.2) and 10 TD's. 46 of Komine's catches came in the final 9 games. The UH OL paved way for 5.1 ypc rush and allowed just 19 sacks. They were held to -12 yds rush vs the tough Alabama D and surrendered 7 of those sacks in their final two games when two starters were injured. They should be healthy here however and they have a 38 lbs per man edge on the OL. UH played Top 50 defenses in two of their last three games and three times overall in 2002 and avg'd 16.1 ppg less and 158 ypg less on offense against those tougher defenses. The Warrior defense allows 27.2 ppg and 396 ypg total D. The unit was very solid all year and is led by a LB corps that has three senior starters. LB Pisa Tinoisamoa is 1st Tm WAC and the top tackler with 121 and also led the team with 6.5 sacks and 11.5 tfl. LB Chris Brown was the #2 tackler with 80. The UH front four allowed 171 ypg rush (4.0) but did record 35 sacks and is a very deep unit. The UH DB's allowed 319 yards passing to IAA Eastern Illinois in their opener but did not allow another opponent to top 300 yds passing until their finale when SDSt erupted for 507 passing. The UH defense faced 7 offenses that are in the lower third of our offensive ratings like Tulane and allowed 12.4 ppg less and 100 ypg less total D to those opponents.
Tulane avg just 307 ypg offense while their D surrenders a respectable 368 ypg total defense. They are #3 in the NCAA in TO margin (+20) forcing 40 TO's. TU did face 8 defenses that are similar in ranking to UH and against those teams they avg 31.1 ppg and 339 ypg while going 5-2 ATS. QB J.P. Losman (PS#6) is avg 186 ypg (58%) with a very solid 19-10 ratio. Losman struggled at times and was benched in favor of running QB Derrick Joseph (87 rush yds) from time to time. Losman now faces the UH DB's who are a solid #26 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing 225 ypg (51%) and a 21-18 ratio. Tulane did struggle vs their bowl eligible foes with just 156 ypg passing (45%) but did have a 4-2 ratio. RB Mewelde Moore has 1022 yds (4.0) and was also the top receiver with 46 rec (10.1). His numbers are way down from 2001 as teams were able to key on him more this year and force Losman and the defense to beat them. The top WR is Tristan Smith who had 42 rec (just 8.9). A key addition here may be CB/WR/KR/PR Lynaris Elpheage (PS #30) who scored on a run, an int and a KR in 2002. Elpheage was inserted at WR in their finale and had the rushing TD and a catch. He is the playmaker that they have been missing since WR Roydell Williams was injured and HC Scelfo has talked about using him more. The OL is a very young unit that paved way for just 3.0 ypc while allowing 40 sacks. They did have the same starting five in all 12 games. While Tulane has just our #57 rated defense they are the most improved unit in the NCAA. The DL is comprised of 4 senior starters and the team recorded 40 sacks. They still allowed 190 ypg rush (4.5) but many of their opponents did note after facing them that TU's DL was able to control the line of scrimmage. True frosh LB Anthony Cannon was the #1 tackler with 110 and converted RB Brandt Quick was #3 with 93 in just 7 starts. CB Elpheage was #3 in the NCAA in interceptions ( garnering 1st Tm CUSA honors. They allowed just 125 ypg passing (51%) and a 1-5 ratio in their L/4 games but all of those were vs running teams. They faced just one Top 25 offense in 2002 and that was their 49-0 loss to Texas. That was a misleading final however as Texas did not have a scoring drive that was longer than 48 yds and after that game the Longhorn coaches even said that this was the most athletic D-line that they had faced to that point.
The Green Wave rate the special teams edge with our #47 unit while UH is #67. Tulane return man Elpheage is #24 in the NCAA in PR's (13.3) and #20 in KR's with 24.8 ypr and a TD. Tulane also had a PR TD on a lateral play. They allowed 11.8 yds per PR and 22.6 per KR and allowed a PR TD. One of the two punts that they blocked was recovered for a TD. K/P Seth Marler was the Lou Groza Award Winner in 2001 but saw his numbers drop due to the addition of the punting chores. Marler was 18-28 on FG's including 7 of 12 from 40+ with a long of 51. He had four brutal games where he was just 3-12 on FG's but otherwise was solid. Marler was 2nd Tm CUSA as a P with an avg of 42.7 (net 35.3). The Warriors did enter the year with a Top 10 unit but KR/PR Chad Owens, who set several team and NCAA records, did not return any kicks until late in the year when he was coming off of an injury and trying to work his way back into the WR rotation. Owens finished with 15 KR's (26. and avg 7.4 on PR's. Michael Brewster was the primary KR and he was #21 in the NCAA in KR avg with 24.7 yds per KR. UH allows a solid 20.7 yds per KR but also allows 14.8 per PR. P Mat McBriar was 1st Tm WAC and is rated as the best P available for the 2003 NFL draft. He is avg 43.7 yds per boot (net 34.9). He did have two blocked. UH blk'd two punts in 2002. K Justin Ayat regressed some from a solid 2001 campaign and made 15 of 23 FG's with a long of 50. He was however just 1-7 from 40+ yds.
Hawaii has a large edge on offense and the home field edge as well. This should be more business as usual for them as they have no sight-seeing to do unlike the Green Wave. Tulane has a slight defensive edge and special teams edge and matches up well with a top-notch pass defense to battle the Hawaii pass attack. Tulane's athletic defensive front has 40 sacks this year and will put pressure on Chang. This one may be lower scoring than expected with two underrated defenses and we lean with the double digit dog that has the more balanced offense.
FORECAST: Tulane (+) 24 HAWAII 31
RATING: 3* Tulane + the points
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