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Frank-you have a point, but still I think it is very dangerous when a team like Pats is on a major roll and putting up telephone numbers every game, to try to pick a given game and go AGAINST BOTH them and the OVER.
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Last edited by savage1; 10-30-2007, 12:12 PM. -
re: Pats I agree. I also believe they're the exception and not the rule.Originally posted by savage1Comment
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I agree with frankb that going against streaks in the NFL is definitely the right move in the long run. Heres a couple of trends to back this:
1)Dogs that lost 5+ consec games SU are 86-36 ATS their next game
2)Teams with a win percentage of .800 or higher that have covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games are only 21-41-1 ATS their next game over the last 25 years
The pats have been bucking this trend this year, but sooner or later it will catch up to them. I have to review the exact numbers, but I know SD covered many of their first 9 games, then failed to cover many of their last 7 (I believe they were 2-5 ATS). Eventually the line catches up.Last edited by roccodean; 10-30-2007, 02:41 PM.Check out all of my past picks at www.Byeweekpicks.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks
2014 NFL Record: 36-30-1 (55%), +5.5 units
2013 NFL Record: 34-26-1 (57%)
2012 NFL Record: 41-30-2 (58%)
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2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%)
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2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%)
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Savage:
Point One: You compare baseball with football??? Pointspread in NFL cannot compare with baseball 162 games played straight up.
Point Two: My objection was not your ideology. Motor City and Frank agree with you on Pats. My objection was posting and bumping up my thread AFTER the game but not posting BEFORE the game.
edit: in retrospect, it probably wasn't the best place for a play since, by my own estimation, the '07 Pats are the best team ever, overall.
gl either way,
daveLast edited by dave T; 11-01-2007, 03:48 PM.
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[QUOTE=dave T]Savage:
Point One: You compare baseball with football??? Pointspread in NFL cannot compare with baseball 162 games played straight up.
Point Two: My objection was not your ideology. Motor City and Frank agree with you on Pats. My objection was posting and bumping up my thread AFTER the game but not posting BEFORE the game.play since, by my own estimation, the '07 Pats are the best team ever, overall.
edit: in retrospect, it probably wasn't the best place for a
gl either way,
Dave-Your points are well taken.
BOL to you also.
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