Monday Trends and Indexes 10/15

[pm530]

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Monday, October 15

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Today's NHL analysis

Hot Teams
-- Sabres won last two games, scoring 13 goals.
-- Vancouver won three of its last four games.
-- Red Wings won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Maple Leafs are 2-4 this season, allowing 24 goals. They've been a man short for at least 10:42 in their last five games.
-- San Jose is 2-3, scoring three or less goals in all five games.
-- Anaheim lost four of their last five games.

Series Records
-- Maple Leafs lost five of last seven games vs Toronto.
-- Canucks won last three games vs San Jose (3-1/2-1/4-3SO)
-- Home side won last six Detroit-Anaheim games; Ducks lost in Detroit 3-2SO back on Oct 3.

Totals
-- Last four Toronto games went over the total.
-- Four of five San Jose games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1 in Anaheim games this season.

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[pm530]

National Hockey League - Preview

NHL


Monday, October 15

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NHL – Preview
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Monday's key NHL matchup notes


Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres (-165, 6 1/2)

The Sabres went 5-3-0 against the Maple Leafs last season, splitting four home games. Buffalo is 10-4-0 in the past 14 meetings overall.

The Buffalo Sabres are without their top two centers from last season, Chris Drury and Daniel Briere. Defenseman Brian Campbell is the Sabres leading scorer and tops NHL defensemen with nine points. Jaroslav Spacek has four goals in four games.

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San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks (-115, 5)

San Jose center Jeremy Roenick was scratched Saturday after suffering a slight knee injury in a 2-1 win over Chicago on Wednesday night, and is uncertain for Monday's game. Roenick's only two goals of the season were against Vancouver, his 496th and 497th to move him closer to becoming the third American-born player with 500.

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Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks (-119, 5)

The Red Wings (4-1-1) already defeated Anaheim 3-2 in a shootout at home to open the 2007-08 season on Oct. 3, and are coming off a 4-1 victory at Los Angeles on Sunday. Backup goaltender Chris Osgood made 27 saves to help Detroit rebound from a 3-2 loss to Chicago on Friday, when it had squandered a two-goal first-period lead.

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Ice Picks

NHL
Previews and Picks

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Ice picks: Monday's best NHL bets


Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres (-156, 6 1/2)

Oddsmakers have set the total on all four of Buffalo's games this season at 6. They've bumped it up to 6 ½ tonight for good reason. The Sabres have netted 19 goals in four games. They are starting to resemble last year's high-scoring squad despite the loss of forwards Chris Drury and Daniel Briere. Derek Roy and Jaroslav Spacek have four goals each and defenseman Brian Campbell leads in points with 12.

Meanwhile the last four Leafs games have played over the total, including their last game, a 6-4 loss to the Penguins Saturday.

The Sabres shouldn't have much trouble meeting their 4.8 goals per game average if Vesa Toskala gets the start for Toronto. He has a 4.48 GAA with just one win in four games. Buffalo's Ryan Miller (3.03 GAA) could pose more of a threat to the Leafs' scoring chances, however. He's started all four games this season and is 5-1-0 with a 2.51 GAA in six career games at home against the Leafs.

Pick: Under 6 ½


San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks (-115, 5)

These teams are so evenly matched the game could come down to who wants it more. The Canucks are hungry to avenge a 3-1 loss to the Sharks in their home opener, but don't think the Sharks won't be prepared to defend their series lead.

San Jose has the edge between with the pipes with Evgeni Nabakov allowing 2.48 goals per game but the Canucks pose more of an offensive threat with Daniel Sedin and Brendan Morrison combining for six goals in four games. Henrik Sedin leads the Canucks with six assists. The Sharks were successful in shutting down the Sedins in the teams' first meeting this year, but the brothers have combined for 14 points in four games since then.

The Canucks have won six of these teams' last 10 meetings and four of their last five at GM Place.

Pick: Sharks +105


Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks (-116, 5)

Anaheim was favored Sunday night to return to its winning ways but fell 2-0 to Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Red Wings have won three of their last four games, including a 4-1 win over the Kings in Los Angeles Sunday. Detroit will skip across town and try to hand Anaheim its sixth loss of the season.

One of Anaheim's biggest problems seems to be the power play. They've capitalized just five times on 39 chances with a man advantage and failed to produce on eight power play chances against the Wild.

Chris Osgood started for the Wings Sunday but Dominik Hasek is expected to be back in nets tonight. Jean-Sebastien Giguere should make his second start in nets for the Ducks.

Pick: Wings +106

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[pm530]

Hockey today - October 15


SCOREBOARD

Monday, Oct. 15
Toronto at Buffalo (7 p.m. EDT)
The Sabres have 13 goals in their last two games and 19 in four contests this season.


STARS

Sunday

-Henrik Zetterberg, Red Wings, had a goal and two assists and Detroit beat Los Angeles 4-1.

-Josh Harding, Wild, posted his third career shutout with a career-high 37 saves, leading Minnesota to a 2-0 victory over Anaheim.


SLUMPING

Detroit beat Los Angeles 4-1 on Sunday night, sending the Kings to their fifth consecutive loss. They have just one win so far, beating the Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks in the season-opener in London. The Kings' start is their worst since they were 1-6-0 to open the 1987-88 season, including five consecutive defeats.


WILD START

Josh Harding posted his third career shutout with a career-high 37 saves Sunday night, leading the unbeaten Wild to a 2-0 victory over the defending champion Ducks. Minnesota's 5-0 start leaves the Wild as the NHL's only team without a loss, and puts them one victory away from matching last season's squad for the franchise's best winning streak from the start of a season.


SPEAKING

''I don't want to make too much of this win, but they're the Stanley Cup champions. So we'll keep that in mind and we'll try to keep getting better. It was a chippy game and a hard-fought game. It was like a playoff hockey game.'' - Minnesota's Brian Rolston after helping the Wild to a 2-0 victory over Anaheim on Sunday. The Ducks knocked the Wild out of the playoffs last season and went on to win their first Stanley Cup title.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Dunkel Index

MLB
Dunkel Index

Boston at Cleveland
Cleveland returns home with some momentum after erupting for a seven-run 11th inning to win Game Two (11-6) in Boston. It capped a night in which the Indians were able to get to one of the best starters in postseason history in Curt Schilling (9 hits, 5 runs over 4 2/3 innings) and then hang around long enough to get to the Bosox bullpen post Jonathan Papelbon. There's a good chance that Cleveland will get to see that bullpen again tonight with Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound for Boston. Matsuzaka is winless in his last five road starts, and 0-2 with a 10.34 ERA in his last three away from home. Cleveland doesn't look to be very hospitable right now, either, as the Indians have won 16 of their last 19 at Jacobs Field, including two ALDS victories over the Yankees. The Indians look like a good home underdog pick in Game Three (+110) according to Dunkel, which has Cleveland favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 15

Game 961-962: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Owings) 15.360; Colorado (Morales) 17.765
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 963-964: Boston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.741; Cleveland (Westbrook) 16.619
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-118); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Under

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[pm530]

Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet


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Monday, October 15
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ARIZONA (93 - 75) at COLORADO (96 - 73) - 10:15 PM
MICAH OWINGS (R) vs. FRANKLIN MORALES (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 13-8 (+6.9 Units) against ARIZONA this season
12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.1 Units)

MICAH OWINGS vs. COLORADO since 1997
No recent starts.

FRANKLIN MORALES vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

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BOSTON (100 - 67) at CLEVELAND (100 - 68) - 7:05 PM
DAISUKE MATSUZAKA (R) vs. JAKE WESTBROOK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 7-19 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 100-68 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 88-62 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 73-50 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 44-34 (+9.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 100-67 (+7.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 16-5 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 74-44 (+12.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 45-23 (+15.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-3 (+2.3 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
MATSUZAKA is 1-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

JAKE WESTBROOK vs. BOSTON since 1997
WESTBROOK is 3-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.931.
His team's record is 3-3 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.6 units)

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[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Monday, October 15

League Championship Series

Matsuzaka has 4.74 RA in his last three starts, but Red Sox are 3-0 in those games, scoring 20 runs; he shut Cleveland out for seven innings in 1-0 win July 24, but gave up six runs in 5.2 IP in Fenway start against Tribe May 30. Westbrook has 6.14 RA in his last five starts; he lost 6-2 at home to Red Sox July 23.

Rockies won 20 of last 21 games, allowing four runs in the first three games of series; they've won last six Morales starts, with 49 runs scored in those games. He didn't face Arizona this year Colorado can advance to first World Series with win Monday. Owings has 12 hits in his last 22 at-bats; he actually threw 13.2 scoreless innings in winning his last two starts. He didn't face the Rockies this season.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


Monday, October 15

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Tips and Trends
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Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians (FOX | 7:10 PM ET)

Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka is 7-8 on the road with a 4.02 ERA, with the Red Sox losing four of his last five starts away from home. Dice-K is coming off a rocky start in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Angels, allowing three runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings with three walks and three strikeouts in an eventual 6-3 victory. SLIGHT EDGE: INDIANS
Cleveland's Jake Westbrook has won just one of his last seven starts and is coming off a loss vs. New York in Game 3 of the ALDS. Westbrook surrendered six runs and nine hits in five innings of an 8-4 loss to the Yankees, and all 10 of his losses this season have been decided by two runs or more. EDGE: RED SOX
Boston is 9-3 in its last 12 meetings at Cleveland.
Cleveland is 17-4 in its last 21 home games.
Cleveland is 8-3 in its last 11 games as an underdog.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (TBS | 10:07 PM ET)

Colorado has won the last six times Franklin Morales has gone to the mound. In his last home start, Morales allowed just three hits in six scoreless innings with no walks and five strikeouts against Florida in a 13-0 victory back on September 16th. EDGE: ROCKIES
Arizona rookie Micah Owings pitched 15 1/3 scoreless innnings in his last two starts of the regular season but has yet to pitch in the postseason. Owings was 4-3 away from home during the regular season with a 4.96 ERA but has never faced Colorado and needs to give the Diamondbacks a chance to win or else the Rockies will be going to their first-ever World Series. SLIGHT EDGE: ROCKIES
The Rockies are 20-1 in their last 21 games.
The Rockies are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
The UNDER is 9-2 in Arizona's last 11 games.

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[pm530]

Baseball – Added Notes

MLB
Added Notes

Monday, October 15

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What bettors need to know: Game 3 - Red Sox at Indians


Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians (+111, 10)

Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Jake Westbrook

Boston hands the ball to the righty from Japan for Game 3, hoping he can recover from a less than dominant performance in his first career postseason start. Dice-K gave up seven hits and three runs in just over four innings against the Los Angeles Angels, throwing 96 pitches.

Overall, Matsuzaka went 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA over 32 starts in his first season in the majors. He had his best month in June when he posted a 1.59 ERA over five starts, and he went 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in two outings against the Indians this season.

Cleveland sends Jake Westbrook to the mound to face Boston’s hot hitters. The right-hander looked good in the opening innings of his ALDS start against the Yankees, but ran into trouble as the game went on. He gave up six runs on nine hits in five innings of work in New York.

Westbrook went 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA in 25 games during the regular season and was roughed up for five runs on 10 hits in his only start against the Red Sox this year.

Manny’s the man in postseason

Boston lost in extra-innings on Saturday night, but Manny Ramirez still had something to celebrate. When he hit a homer off Indians reliever Rafael Perez, he surpassed Bernie William’s record for most all-time home runs in postseason history.

His 23rd postseason homer tied the game at 5-5 in the fifth inning. Mike Lowell was next up to the plate and he also went deep to put the Sox in the lead, but they ultimately fell short in 13-6 blowout.

Through five games this October, Ramirez is batting .429 with three homers, 10 RBIs, nine walks and six runs scored. He tied William’s record on Oct. 5 against the Angels.

“It feels great," he told MLB.com. "It's been a long time since I've done something special like that. I haven't been right all year. But I guess when you don't feel good and you still get hits, that's when you know you are a bad man."

Sizemore leading the way

Grady Sizemore batted .277 with 24 homers and 78 RBIs as the leadoff hitter during the regular season, so his 0-for-5 struggles in Game 1 of the ALCS played a big part in Cleveland’s loss. That all changed in the Game 2 victory.

Sizemore went 3-for-5 with a homer, a double, a single, a walk and three runs scored. Before Saturday’s game, Indians manager Eric Wedge said it was unfair to put so much pressure on Sizemore, but conceded he is a massive part of the offense.

"I wouldn't say it's that black and white," Wedge told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "But Grady definitely provides a tremendous amount of energy for us at the top of the lineup. I think he's one of the most exciting players in the game.

"Friday night, he was a little bit off. I think it's fair to say we were a little bit off as a ballclub. You know, it's not that we played bad, we just didn't do anything.”

Sizemore batted .375, slugged .688 and had an on-base percentage of .524 in the ALDS against the Yankees last week. The Indians will be hoping he can put up similar figures against the Red Sox as the ALCS heads to Jacobs Field.

It’s all gone wrong for Gagne

As a closer with the Texas Rangers in the first half of this season, Eric Gagne was the epitome of a lights-out closer. Since he joined the Boston Red Sox, that hasn’t been the case.

Gagne posted a 2-0 record with a 2.16 ERA while converting 16 of 17 save opportunities for Texas. With the Red Sox he went 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA in 29 games. His three outings in the playoffs so far have been shaky at best, and he contributed to Boston’s downfall in the 13-6 loss.

"We need him to win," Dustin Pedroia told MLB.com when asked about Gagne, who left the clubhouse before the media were allowed in on Saturday. "I don't know what to say. We need him to help us win the World Series. We're all 100 percent behind him and pulling for him."

"At times, he threw some great offspeed pitches, which I think are obvious, because he got the swings and misses," added Red Sox manager Terry Francona.

"And then at times, it was the guy we've seen maybe losing the balance on the follow-through or the recoil on the follow-through and the fastball up here [in the zone]. It's a very difficult fine line right now. We're in the postseason. It is a little tough."

Gagne, a former Cy Young winner, is currently behind Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima on the setup man depth chart, and has little chance of dislodging Jonathan Papelbon as closer.

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[pm530]

Baseball Today - October 15


SCOREBOARD

Monday, Oct. 15
Arizona at Colorado (10:18 p.m. EDT). The Rockies try to advance to the World Series for the first time in franchise history.


STARS

-Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies, hit a tiebreaking three-run homer to fuel Colorado's 4-1 victory over Arizona.


ROLLIN' ROCKS

Josh Fogg allowed one run in six innings in his first postseason start as Colroado beat Arizona 4-1 in Game 3 of the NL championship series on Sunday to move within a game of sweeping the series. The win was the Rockies' 20th in 21 games.


PRESSURE ON ROOKIES

Franklin Morales faces Micah Owings in a matchup of rookies who have never faced each other's teams as Colorado looks to finish off Arizona on Monday. The Diamondbacks are hoping to join the 2004 Boston Red Sox, who rallied past the New York Yankees, as the only teams to overcome a 3-0 hole to win a best-of-seven postseason series.


SECOND SHOT

Daisuke Matsuzaka starts for Boston in Game 3 of the ALCS on Monday with the series tied 1-1. Matsuzaka is looking to bounce back from a rough outing in his first playoff start in which he lasted just 4 2-3 innings. He allowed six runs and a season-high 12 hits against the Indians in a May 30 loss but gave up four hits in seven scoreless innings on July 24 in his only game in Cleveland.


SPEAKING

"We as a pitching staff love that guy. He's a thinker. He could go 0-for-20 behind the plate and it wouldn't even matter.'' - Colorado reliever Matt Herges, on catcher Yorvit Torrealba's importance to the Rockies' pitching staff, which has a 1.77 ERA through six postseason games.


SEASONS

Oct. 15

1917 - The Chicago White Sox won the World Series when the New York Giants left home plate uncovered and Eddie Collins dashed home with third baseman Heinie Zimmerman chasing him in helpless pursuit.

1925 - Kiki Cuyler's bases-loaded double in the eighth inning gave the Pittsburgh Pirates a 9-7 victory over Walter Johnson and the Washington Senators in Game 7 of the World Series, capping a comeback from a 3-1 deficit.

1946 - Enos Slaughter scored from first on Harry Walker's double to give the St. Louis Cardinals to a 4-3 victory in Game 7 and the World Series title against the Boston Red Sox.

1981 - Dave Righetti, Ron Davis and Goose Gossage combined on a 4-0 shutout of the Oakland A's to give the New York Yankees their 33rd American League pennant.

1986 - The Boston Red Sox capped one of the greatest comebacks in history by defeating the California Angels 8-1 to win the American League pennant after trailing three games to one in the playoffs.

1986 - Ray Knight keyed a three-run ninth to tie the score and the New York Mets won their third National League pennant by beating the Houston Astros 7-6 in 16 innings in the longest postseason game.

1988 - With two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Kirk Gibson hit a two-run, pinch homer to give the Los Angeles Dodgers a 5-4 victory over Oakland in Game 1 of the World Series. Gibson, who did not start because of a strained left knee, limped around the bases as the Dodgers won one of the most dramatic games in series history.

1997 - The Cleveland Indians survived another brilliant effort by Mike Mussina and claimed their second pennant in three years, defeating the Baltimore Orioles 1-0 on an 11th-inning homer by Tony Fernandez to win the AL championship series 4-2.

2003 - The Florida Marlins took their third game in a row, winning the NLCS with a 9-6 victory over Chicago in Game 7. Florida became just the ninth team to overcome a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series.

Today's birthday: Juan Cruz 29.

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[pm530]

Baseball – Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet

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Monday, October 15th
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NL Championship Series
Game Four
Colorado Leads, 3-0
TV: TBS

Arizona at Colorado, 10:05 ET
Micah Owings (R) vs. Franklin Morales (L)

Owings:
Arizona 4-14 SU off a division loss scoring 1 or 0 runs
Arizona 5-1 Under in playoff games

Morales:
7-2 TSR in all games this season
Colorado 20-1 SU last 20 games

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AL Championship Series
Game Three
Series Tied, 1-1
TV: FOX

Boston at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) vs. Jake Westbrook (R)

Matsuzaka:
Boston 31-12 Under away after allowing 8+ runs
Boston 12-3 Under away off a loss by 6+ runs

Westbrook:
Cleveland 12-1 SU at home off a combined score of 15+ runs
Cleveland 23-5 SU at home after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games

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[pm530]

Baseball – Series Analysis

MLB
Series Analysis

Monday, October 15

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Series Analysis


NLCS

Colorado won 10 of the 18 games played between the Rockies and Diamondbacks during the regular season, and being that that was before the Rockies turned hotter than a $3 bill, it's difficult not to think this series favors the Rockies.

However ... Arizona has one thing Colorado doesn't, and that's an established ace in Brandon Webb. Colorado's Jeff Francis has been pitching like one, true, and he's going to need to continue to do so. For starters, I think Arizona must win the games started by Webb. That will get the Diamondbacks off and running. And in the clubs' season-ending series in Denver two weekends ago, Webb stymied the Rockies in the Friday night game -- thus ending Colorado's 11-game winning streak.

That said, Webb -- and Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez -- have an extremely difficult task. Colorado has produced the National League's best offensive lineup. Rookie shortstop Troy Tulowitzki combines average and power, Matt Holliday is a legtimate NL MVP candidate, Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe have regained their strokes, Todd Helton doesn't have the power he once had but he is a serious threat. There are no weaknesses here.

This series will be one of contrasts, because while the Rockies own the NL's best batting average at .280, Arizona's .250 ranked dead last. Bob Melvin's club has some pop in leadoff man Chris Young, but for the Diamondbacks to work, they're going to need Young, Mark Reynolds, Conor Jackson, Justin Upton and Eric Byrnes -- and others -- to get on base and move runners over with timely hits.

This is the poor stepchild series from the standpoint that, once you remove the hardcore baseball fans, I bet you can't find more than a handful of folks who could name five players combined on these teams. Here's a tip: They're both playing tremendous baseball, and if nothing else, pay attention to Tulowitzki's sensational fielding, rookie Colorado pitchers Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez, Webb (defending NL Cy Young winner) and grizzled old Arizona veteran Tony Clark.

Right off the bat, too, pay attention to whether either team is rusty. Both swept in the division series (Arizona over the Cubs, Colorado over the Phillies) and will have had four solid days off. These teams each won 90 games -- tied for highest in the NL -- and though the Diamondbacks are playing extraordinarily well, Colorado has won 17 of its past 18 games.

As they're saying in Denver about these Rockies, the calendar has turned and it's now "Rocktober." Believe it.


ALCS

If recent history counts, Boston won five of seven games against Cleveland during the 2007 regular season. Of course, the Yankees went 6-0 against Cleveland this summer and we saw where that got them.

The thing about these Indians is that they've matured every day this season, particularly their young pitchers. C.C. Sabathia went 18-7, and in six of those seven losses, the Indians scored two or fewer runs -- including dropping two 1-0 decisions. Sabathia never complained; he only kept working: His 241 innings pitched led the majors.

One of those 1-0 losses was on July 24 in Cleveland to Boston, which started Daisuke Matsuzaka that day. The very next day, July 25, Cleveland and Fausto Carmona beat the Red Sox and Josh Beckett 1-0. So already, you can see how this could set up. With two offenses that know how to score, it's going to be about who will pitch better.

Both teams come into the series extremely well rested -- Boston having eliminated the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday and Cleveland knocking off the Yankees on Monday. One question will be, are they too well-rested? When Game 1 finally gets underway on Friday, Boston will have played only three games in an 11-day span. Cleveland will have played four in that same 11-day span.

The left-handed Sabathia vs. lefty-hitting David Ortiz will be one of this series' key matchups, as will be the right-handed Carmona, who was second in the AL with a 3.06 ERA, against the right-handed Manny Ramirez. Already, Boston has taken down the AL's ERA leader, the Angels' John Lackey (3.01). Though Boston's one-two punch was slowed by injuries this year -- Ramirez battled a sore oblique for most of September and Ortiz took a cortisone shot in his knee just before the playoffs started -- they're raging now. Ramirez has hit in 22 of his past 23 postseason games, and Ortiz reached base in 11 of 13 plate appearances against the Angels.

Boston's supporting hitters -- Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youklis, J.D. Drew and Co. -- must set the table and work the counts. If they're able to get Carmona and Sabathia past 100 pitches by, say, the fifth inning, that will go a long way in defeating the Indians. But you'd better get to them quickly, because the two Rafaels -- Perez and Betancourt -- have been lights out this year.

Cleveland is swinging it better now than it has all season -- Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore have come alive -- and was particularly adept in the clutch against the Yankees, going 12-for-26 with runners in scoring position and two out. If the Indians can pitch and hit in the clutch that well again, there may be no stopping them.

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