Sucker Bets NFL Week 3

[Chado1]

Also another thing....

about these trends and ATS stats I find them irrlevant aswell for a few reasons.....

Ok lets say a trend or ATS stat like this for an example....

Over the last 10 season the Bears are 13-3 ATS vs. the Lions....

This means NOTHING to me.....so they have had success in previous years with DIFFERENT players FOR BOTH TEAMS....does this affect this season and this game for right now?

Next.....

13-3 ATS...with what line....LINES MOVE....who is to say that in like 9 of those 13 wins depending on which line you may have got it at it could have pushed or lossed? ATS with opening lines? ATS with mid-week line? ATS with final lines? I dont even bother with ATS stats for ANY SPORT....I have had plenty of success over the years not even taking any of the ATS garbage into consideration because to me it is completely irrelevant with present day.....I know I am not like the majority with this opinion but IMO ATS has little bearing on what is actually gonna happen.....

[Chado1]

No such thing as sucker bets........ Everyone talks about sucker bets, and when they lose, say "see, I told you so"

But when people yell "sucker bets", and that game covers, its never brought up again.

Just my opinion.

Exactly jeremy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sucker, trap, ALL BS.....I hate hearing this shit...such garbage...whatever is gonna happen is gonna happen....what you just wrote is BANG ON to what I was trying to say....

[frankb03]

All I am saying is that one guy can say one side is a sucker bet...the other guy can say the other side is a sucker bet....blah blah blah.....its all irrelevant....I am the opposite of you guys...I could care less if 100% of the public is on a side and I like it or visa versa....is this gonna change the outcome of the game?.....is this gonna affect the future of what is gonna happen?....NO....the fact is no matter what....it all comes down to kickoff and whatever happens happens regardless of sucker, trap, BS...blah blah blah.....

I do agree with you. If I like a game I don't give a rat ass what side the public is betting. I cap the games using my style.

That being said I've been around enough to know when the scamdicappers and public is overwhelmingly on one side it more often than not burns the cash.

IMO there's also a difference between sucker bets and traps. Like you based on my definition, I don't buy into traps. Let's be serious a second. Vegas has no idea what the outcome of game is going to be. Vegas does have a good feel for how the public will bet. Do they adjust the line? Of course they do but they only do it a point or two. Enough to sway the public. Certainly not enough to determine the outcome of the game.

My definition of a sucker bet is a bet that appears "too easy". Vegas sets the lines mostly on their power rankings and public opinion second. They know the public LOVES favorites and OVERS. Almost every year dogs outperform favorites. There's a good reason. Vegas overvalues favorites.

[Chado1]

Vegas overvalues favorites.

Exactly....that is why the dogs in the NFL have done so well because the line is so inflated for the favorite and if Vegas didnt have the lines so inflated (i.e 4.5 instead of 7.0 or something) I bet it would be about even with dogs and favs.....

[frankb03]

Also another thing....

about these trends and ATS stats I find them irrlevant aswell for a few reasons.....

Ok lets say a trend or ATS stat like this for an example....

Over the last 10 season the Bears are 13-3 ATS vs. the Lions....

This means NOTHING to me.....so they have had success in previous years with DIFFERENT players FOR BOTH TEAMS....does this affect this season and this game for right now?

Next.....

13-3 ATS...with what line....LINES MOVE....who is to say that in like 9 of those 13 wins depending on which line you may have got it at it could have pushed or lossed? ATS with opening lines? ATS with mid-week line? ATS with final lines? I dont even bother with ATS stats for ANY SPORT....I have had plenty of success over the years not even taking any of the ATS garbage into consideration because to me it is completely irrelevant with present day.....I know I am not like the majority with this opinion but IMO ATS has little bearing on what is actually gonna happen.....

I agree and I disagree.

I agree with you on team trends. I don't pay any attention to team trends. Today's game has little or nothing to do with a game played 5 years ago let alone last season. I get a chuckle when Marc Lawrence says Team A is playing for revenge over Team B when their previous game was played 3 seasons ago.

I don't agree with you on league wide systems. Playing dogs, playing vs teams off a division game are good examples of a 'system'. The game and the way Vegas sets their lines hasn't changed. There's plenty of holes. The key is finding those holes, being patient and consistent.

[griswold]

The definition of "sucker" bets is subjective.

I'm still working on my NFL for this weekend but on my list of six possible plays I have both the Cowboys and the Titans.

In my experience, it takes up to six weeks for people to understand this year isn't LAST year. People presume the Bears and Saints are strong because they were last year. Maybe they have both regressed.

So, who's the sucker?

[GOLDENGREEK]

Intra -division home dogs are a great play in the NFL. Also, I dont know how it has done in the last 4-5 years, but I remember that intra - division home dogs on Monday Nite Football back then where hitting nearly an 80 % clip over a 15 -20 yr period which is just insane!!!!

If you see 90 % of the public on a fav - against a intra division home dog - you just HAVE to play the dog IMO

[frankb03]

Intra -division home dogs are a great play in the NFL. Also, I dont know how it has done in the last 4-5 years, but I remember that intra - division home dogs on Monday Nite Football back then where hitting nearly an 80 % clip over a 15 -20 yr period which is just insane!!!!

Vegas has caught up with the Monday Home Dog. Actually, I don't think Vegas has caught up. I don't believe teams playing at home on Monday night is that big of a deal anymore. It's no longer a novelty. Except for last year's Saints/Falcons game.

Since 2001 all Monday home dogs are 11-20 ATS.

Division Monday home dogs are a very poor 2-9 ATS since 2001 OUCH!

[frankb03]

In my experience, it takes up to six weeks for people to understand this year isn't LAST year.

I agree 1000%

Bettors are too influenced by last years performance. I think the media plays a huge roll.

[Chado1]

Intra -division home dogs are a great play in the NFL. Also, I dont know how it has done in the last 4-5 years, but I remember that intra - division home dogs on Monday Nite Football back then where hitting nearly an 80 % clip over a 15 -20 yr period which is just insane!!!!

If you see 90 % of the public on a fav - against a intra division home dog - you just HAVE to play the dog IMO

See this is exactly what I am talking about......

The 2 most irrelevent things for me when deciding which side/total I am going to take is the past trends/ATS and the public.....I know that for Greek these are the two most important things he looks at and I have nothing against that as to each his own...this is just my opinion for ALL SPORTS and I have done very well not taking it into consideration...

[frankb03]

See this is exactly what I am talking about......

The 2 most irrelevent things for me when deciding which side/total I am going to take is the past trends/ATS and the public.....I know that for Greek these are the two most important things he looks at and I have nothing against that as to each his own...this is just my opinion for ALL SPORTS and I have done very well not taking it into consideration...

When certain system, such as the MNF system, become public they lose their luster. The whole world loved betting MNF dogs. Vegas adjusts.

Some obscure system never lose their luster. They might have a down year but in the long run they're profitable.

Chado, what method do you use to cap. I guarantee part of your capping involves systems. You might not be aware. I think most involve some sought of system.

[Chado1]

When certain system, such as the MNF system, become public they lose their luster. The whole world loved betting MNF dogs. Vegas adjusts.

Some obscure system never lose their luster. They might have a down year but in the long run they're profitable.

Chado, what method do you use to cap. I guarantee part of your capping involves systems. You might not be aware. I think most involve some sought of system.

Yea I guess youre right...I may indirectly use systems that I dont even know about throughout the whole process of things....otherwise what would it be right cause I dont just flip a coin....Ok I guess the #1 then is what the public likes....that to me is THE MOST IRRELEVANT THING OF ALL...

[GOLDENGREEK]

Vegas has caught up with the Monday Home Dog. Actually, I don't think Vegas has caught up. I don't believe teams playing at home on Monday night is that big of a deal anymore. It's no longer a novelty. Except for last year's Saints/Falcons game.

Since 2001 all Monday home dogs are 11-20 ATS.

Division Monday home dogs are a very poor 2-9 ATS since 2001 OUCH!

Very true! Thats why im my post I stated 4-5 years ago

[Hoosier Daddy]

I agree with "sucker bets" around the fact that when I look at a game and the line seems way off, and it seems like Vegas wants you to take the favorite (75% of time it's with a low line on faves) and I do worry a bit. Also, when I see every service and every good capper on this site on the same team, I get worried (like Alabama last week).

I'm surprised the Dallas/Chicago game wasn't a pick, but when you look at the two teams, Dallas has played 2 of the worst teams in the NFL and all of America is on the Cowboys bandwagon. But the Bears Defense has been amazing. Against SD, they shut down LT and the two scoring "drives" were off turnovers (one freak muffed punt and a fumble).

Dallas's defense is NOT good, and now they have lost their starting NT and a linebacker. Even if Newman plays, he won't be 100%. If Benson can figure out how to pick up the blitz, and Grossman doesn't shit his pants and freak out, they'll be able to make some plays downfield with Berrian plus they get Greg Olsen back who can stretch the field.

I love the Bears this weekend, and I live in Dallas......I also like New Orleans as I'm convinced they just have too much offensive talent to really be THIS bad, but maybe they are.