Saturday Trends and Indexes 08/11

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Saturday, August 11

Good Luck on day #223 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Saturday

-- Check out Hanley Ramirez' numbers this year: he has a .342 batting average (.344 home, .339 on road), 20 HR, 34 doubles, 58 RBI, 87 runs scored, .423 vs lefty pitchers. Nice

-- Matsuzaka left with 5-1 lead in 8th inning, then watched Gagne and Okajima blow game, 6-5, to an Oriole team that is showing more toughness under interim skipper Tremblay.

-- Mike Piazza is costing A's $8M this year, and has three homers, 23 RBI in 178 ABs; Jack Cust was plucked out of the Padre farm system when Piazza got hurt; he has a .402 on-base percentage, with 18 HR, 59 RBI in 245 ABs.

-- Joe Blanton allowed nine runs in four IP, and A's didn't lose, as Detroit's freefall continues. Mr. Cust had 7 RBI.

-- This kid Marcum on Toronto has taken three no-hitters, at least, into sixth inning this year. Toronto stays over the .500 mark with their win in Kansas City.

-- Milwaukee got big extra inning win at Houston, Cubs got a win without Soriano, and Mets lost game in standings to Phillies when Wagner blew save in 9th inning vs Florida, as Ramirez got game-winning hit to deep CF, off a lefty.

[pm530]

Saturday's List of 13: 13 underrated people in sports......

13) Larry Doby-- American League's Jackie Robinson, as he was first African-American in that league; he hit 253 homers, had a .386 on-base percentage, played in 7 All-Star games. Indians have retired his number.

12) Don Coryell-- Was 42-29-1 as coach of Cardinals; after he left, Cards not only moved to Arizona, but have compiled a record of 167-290-2 in the last 29 seasons. Not good.

Coryell was 72-60 as coach of the Chargers, who went 33-54 in the next six seasons after he left San Diego. Coryell is also considered a guru of the Zampese/Norv Turner offense.

11) Al Oliver- A career .303 hitter who is only Montreal Expo to lead NL in RBI; he had his best days for Pirates, playing on their '71 World Championship team. AO had 2,743 hits, was in seven All-Star games and knocked in 1,326 runs.

10) Steve Spurrier-- Won the Heisman Trophy, lasted 9 years in NFL as punter/backup QB (but was also first starting QB in Buccaneer history), won as head coach in USFL (Tampa Bay Bandits) and Duke (the freakin' guy got Duke into a bowl!!!) and turned Florida into a national power. He gets his share of ink, but what an amazing career he has had.

9) The ABA-- Gave us Julius Erving, Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones, the 3-pointer, Wilt Chamberlain as head coach, coaches wearing overalls during games, red-white-and-blue basketballs, David Thompson, Bob Costas as a play-by-play guy for Spirits of St Louis, Hubie Brown and Monte Towe, who was so short, he had to wear his uniform to road arenas, so security guards would believe he was a player.

8) Warren Spahn-- Went 363-245 in big league career, going an amazing 23-7 at age 42. For his career, he allowed a total of 4,830 hits in 5,243 IP, in era where there were only seven other teams, so you faced the same hitters an awful lot.

7) The guy who invented the aluminum bat, whoever he/she is-- Who changed more lives of little kids than this guy? The crack of the bat was replaced by the "ping" of metal meeting cowhide, and hitting became a lot more fun.

6) Bo Jackson-- Great college football player, pretty good in NFL and hit 141 homers in 684 major league baseball games, playing couple of seasons with an artificial hip. You never hear anything about him anymore, which means hes one of the good guys. Made ton of commercials in his time.

5) Charles Oscar Finley-- Not only was he owner/GM of great A's teams in early 70's, he invented colorful uniforms, which led to the baseball merchandising boom, night World Series games, the DH, and a lot of other ideas that never quite made it. One of the great characters of the game, he was as brilliant as he was ornery, and never got the credit he deserved.

4) Dick Williams-- Yes, I'm an A's fan, but this guy deserves a plaque in Cooperstown-- he got Red Sox in World Series for first time in 19 years, A's for first time in 42 years, got Padres in for the first time ever, and is only skipper ever to get Expos into a playoff series. A superior manager to Joe Torre, who is going to get in Cooperstown before him, and thats not right.

3) Earl Monroe-- His scoring averages for first five years of a brilliant career: 24.3/25/8/23.4/21.4/21.7-- then he got traded to the Knicks from Baltimore Bullets, subjugated his game to fit in with his new team (imagine that happening today?) and helped Knicks win their second world title in '73. Popularized the spin dribble, was a great player, an underrated talent.

2) Henry Aaron-- Getting more due now with Bonds getting his name back in news; most people tout Willie Mays as the better player, but fact of the matter is, Hank hit 755 home runs under difficult conditions in turbulent times in the south, and that was no simple task. He also did it with class.

1) Chuck Noll-- Inherited Steeler team that had 13-40-3 record in four years prior, and turned them into a dynasty that won four Super Bowls under his watch. You never see this guy on TV, but he takes a backseat to no one as a head coach.

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[pm530]

Major League Soccer – Hot Lines

MLS
Hot Lines


Saturday, August 11

Saturday’s MLS preview and picks


Columbus Crew at FC Dallas (+320, +225, -125)

Since a shock 4-0 defeat to Toronto FC in June, FC Dallas have been one of the most consistent teams in the league. They are unbeaten in their last five games and on Saturday they will look to continue that good form against the visiting Columbus Crew.

The Texans' success this season is in a large part due to the depth of their squad. They have been able to deal with injuries and absences better than most MLS teams this season, especially through June and July when they were left short due to the Copa America and U-20 World Cup.

A lot of MLS teams are guilty of carrying players that they are unlikely to use in oversized rosters, but Dallas have kept a smaller squad (21 players), with all players ready to start when necessary.

Of the 18 outfield players on their roster, 15 have participated in over 10 games this season – a very high amount for a soccer team. Because of this Dallas manager Steve Morrow is in the fantastic position of being able to rotate his starting eleven without major consequence.

Just look at the last game against Colorado. Goalkeeper Dario Sala, whose importance to the team can’t be overstated, was out through injury. Dallas turned to rookie keeper Ray Burse, who not only produced a commanding performance, the 23-year-old also recorded the team’s first clean sheet in seven games.

FCD have also successfully recovered from the devastating loss of last season’s top scorer Kenny Cooper. Cooper is out indefinitely with a broken leg, but both Carlos Ruiz and Juan Toja have picked up the slack, bagging nine goals between them so far.

The confidence that the Dallas players have in each other is evident in the way they play. Exciting, attacking and free-flowing football is always on display at Pizza Hut Park, where the Texans have compiled an impressive 5-2-1 record this season.

The Columbus Crew have lost only once in their last nine, but this weekend they face one of the best teams in the league and are unlikely to take anything from this match.

Pick: Dallas -125



Houston Dynamo at Colorado Rapids (+125, +200, +180)

The Colorado Rapids desperately need to snap their ten-game losing streak if they are to have any chance of making the playoffs this season. Unfortunately for them, they travel to the team with the best record in MLS when they take on Houston this Saturday.

When a soccer team loses seven of its last ten games, it’s usually down to weaknesses in several areas of the field. The Rapids are the exception to this rule, because all of their struggles can be blamed on a lack of offense.

Colorado have been held scoreless in six of their last eight games – four of which were losses. There are several reasons for their lackluster attack, but the management of the club has to take some of the responsibility.

They sold their top scorer, Jeff Cunningham, to Toronto in June and have recently followed that up by allowing attacking midfielder Freddy Adu to leave the club to play in Europe.

That coupled with the retirement of striker Jason Kreis, who is now the team’s manager, has led to a massive lack of attacking power in the Rapids side. Ironically, Kreis holds the record for the most all-time goals in MLS, but he can't seem to instill his excellent attacking skills into his team.

The current front two for the Rapids, Nicolas Hernandez and Jacob Peterson, have hit the net just twice between them this season – by far the lowest of any strike pairing in the league.

There’s an old saying in soccer that says ‘goals wins games’ and it’s particularly true in MLS. When Colorado’s misfiring offense faces the league best defense (Houston have conceded just 14 times this season) there will only be one winner.

Pick: Houston +125

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet

Saturday, August 11

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HAMILTON (1 - 5) at EDMONTON (2 - 3 - 1) - 8/11/2007, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-0 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Saturday, August 11

Hamilton (1-5) @ Edmonton (2-3-1) -- Four of six Eskimo games were decided by four or less points; they lost at home last week to Calgary, as Stampeders gained almost nine yards a play and outgained Eskimos 463-381. TiCats had huge game on ground a week ago, after allowing 30.8 ppg in losing first five games this season. Three of last four games for both sides went over total.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


Saturday, August 11

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GREEN BAY (1 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 4) - 8/11/2007, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 2) - 8/11/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 2) - 8/11/2007, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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WASHINGTON (0 - 4) at TENNESSEE (1 - 3) - 8/11/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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CAROLINA (4 - 0) at NY GIANTS (4 - 0) - 8/11/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CHICAGO (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 8/11/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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ARIZONA (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (4 - 1) - 8/11/2007, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Pre-Season
Short Sheet


Saturday, August 11

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Saturday, August 11

Green Bay at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Green Bay: 6-2 Over vs. AFC North opponents
Pittsburgh: 6-10 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

Jacksonville at Miami, 7:30 ET
Jacksonville: 10-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
Miami: 2-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Kansas City at Cleveland, 7:30 ET
Kansas City: 2-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Cleveland: 9-2 ATS at home with a total of 35.5 to 42 points

Washington at Tennessee, 8:00 ET NFL
Washington: 1-6 ATS in non-conference games
Tennessee: 16-6 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Carolina at NY Giants, 8:00 ET
Carolina: 11-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
NY Giants: 4-13 ATS as a home favorite

Chicago at Houston, 8:00 ET
Chicago: 10-3 Over away with a total of 35 points or less
Houston: 7-13 ATS last 20 preseason games

Arizona at Oakland, 10:00 ET
Arizona: 7-1 Under vs. Oakland
Oakland: 7-1 Under in August

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Pre-Season
Write-up


Saturday, August 11

These Week 1 preseason games aren't great places to make an investment; regulars don't play enough.

Favre won't play much for Packer squad, as Aaron Rodgers gets his work in-- their other two QBs are Ingle Martin (once played at Florida) and Jerry Babb. Steelers blitzed a lot vs Saints in Canton but Big Ben got nicked in practice this week, so it'll be lot more of St Pierre and Charlie Batch.

Miami debut of Cam Cameron/Trent Green; Jacksonville liked its QBs so much they went and signed Tim Couch, who hasn't seen light of day in NFL since '04. Jags beat Miami last two summers, 31-26/27-17. Six of last eight Jaguar summer games went over.

Herm Edwards has gone under total in 16 of last 25 summer tilts; he has QB issues, with Croyle/Huard as his choices for #1 guy, but nothing like Cleveland, where Brady Quinn just signed, and they had to flip coin to determine starter for this one. Chiefs are banged up on offensive line, too.

Redskins' defensive coordinator Williams faces Tennesee squad he helped make AFC champs eight years ago; Titan backup QBs are Kerry Collins, Tim Rattya, not bad for summer games, while Washington has Todd Collins and Jordan Palmer, brother of the Bengals' QB, as their 3rd, 4th QBs behind Campbell/Brunell.

John Fox returns to Meadlowlands with David Carr as backup to Delhomme under center-- Giants have three SEC QBs, but fans have Manning in their sights; play well or else. USC WR Smith has made positive impression around Giant camp. Under is 6-2 in last eight Giant summer games.

Matt Schaub debuts for Texans, vs Chicago team that has Brian Griese, Kyle Orton as backup QBs, so experienced guys, as well as Florida rookie Leak. Sage Rosenfels, Brad Van Pelt are backup guys for Houston, who will never live down passing hometown boy Vince Young in last year's draft.

Oakland Raiders need to sell tickets; this is debut for Lane Kiffin who is younger than lot of his players. Russell hasn't signed as of yet, Culpepper just got there, so McCown expected to see lot of time, as well as former LSU/Florida Marlin Josh Booty, whose brother is now USC's QB, where he played for Kiffin last year. Two-time MVP Kurt Warner is Arizona's backup; Shane Boyd is their #3- he used to play at Kentucky.

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[pm530]

WNBA - News & Notes

WNBA


Saturday, August 11

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WNBA News and Notes
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The Washington Mystics are not satisfied with simply recovering from an 0-8 start and getting into a playoff position. They hope to hold on to the spot and extend their turnaround into the postseason.

''I'm never, never satisfied until we reach our goals. And we are taking it one goal at a time,'' Mystics star Alana Beard said. ''A lot of people didn't think we would get in the playoffs, so after (securing a postseason berth), then we start talking about a championship.''

Washington, 14-7 since its winless start, headed into the final 10 days of the season with a two-game lead over fifth-place New York for the East's final playoff spot.

''That 0-8 start really shook the foundation of everything around here,'' veteran forward DeLisha Milton-Jones said. ''We could have easily sat around and started pointing the finger, started blaming this, blaming that. But we didn't. ... And now we're in a situation many people probably didn't think we would be in - with a chance for the playoffs. That's something we are all very elated about.''

Milton-Jones pointed to the remarkable turnaround by the Charlotte Sting in 2001 as inspiration. The Sting began that season 1-10, then won 17 of their last 21 games, and beat Cleveland and New York in the playoffs before losing to Milton-Jones and the Los Angeles Sparks in the finals.

''It was amazing to see a team make a turnaround like that,'' Milton-Jones said. ''Your mental strength and your mental toughness come into play. If you're sitting here crying over spilled milk, then only bad things are going to happen to you.''

Beard also credited interim coach Tree Rollins for not changing the system after replacing Richie Adubato, who stepped down after four games. Adubato lasted two-plus seasons with the Mystics, who had six coaches in the previous seven years.

''Tree did a great job of understanding that we've had so many changes already,'' Beard said, ''that if he tried to change the system it was going to make it worse.''

And the key for the Mystics down the stretch as they try to hold off the Liberty and Chicago Sky?

''We really have to pay attention to details,'' Milton-Jones said. ''You have to play mistake-free basketball. The closer you get to the playoffs, the more tedious you have to be in everything you do.''

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GETTING THE HOME-COURT? After bouncing back from a 5-10 start with 11 wins in their last 13 games, the Sun have a chance to catch Indiana for second place in the Eastern Conference - and earn home-court advantage in a potential first-round series against the Fever.

However, with 13 wins in the last 16 games between the teams, Connecticut coach Mike Thibault is more concerned about how his team is playing than where they might play in the playoffs.

''I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about second place vs. third place,'' Thibault said. ''I've spent more time thinking just about playing well and getting better each game.''

Sun forward Nykesha Sales credits her teammates' focus on their individual roles for the team's turnaround.

''Instead of just one, two or three (players), you have four five and six doing what they're supposed to do,'' she said. ''No one's trying to do too much. Players are here to do certain things and, when they come into the game, they're doing those things.

''Jamie (Carey) is here to shoot (3-pointers) and she's doing it well. Evanthia (Maltsi) is coming in shooting and playing with confidence. ... We're just a deep team right now.''

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INSIDE LOOK: During Saturday's broadcast of the Fever-Shock game, ABC was set to have video access inside both teams' locker rooms during halftime. The network planned to give viewers a chance to hear Detroit's Bill Laimbeer and Indiana's Brian Winters address their teams in preparation for the second half.

''We want to push the envelope with our WNBA coverage by providing access, beyond game action, that will further enhance the broadcast,'' said Carol Stiff, ESPN senior director of programming and acquisitions.

Also, there was to be a wireless camera used on the court during free-throw attempts and a live chat with analyst Carolyn Peck on ESPN.com during the game.

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EARLY DEPARTURE: Lynx rookie Kathrin Ress left the team after Minnesota's 80-77 loss to Houston on Aug. 4 to rejoin the Italian national team in preparation for the European championships, to be held in Chieti, Italy, from Sept. 24 to Oct. 7.

Ress was drafted by the Lynx in the second round in this year's draft and averaged 3.0 points and 2.5 rebounds in 28 games. In her final game, she had 10 points and six rebounds.

''Obviously, it is disappointing to see her leave after a 10 and six night, but I understand her situation,'' Lynx coach Don Zierden said. ''We will miss her. We were pleased with her progress.''

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STATS: Connecticut was outscored 23-20 in the fourth quarter of an 81-79 loss to Sacramento on Tuesday, marking the first time the Sun were topped in that quarter since July 6 at Phoenix - a span of 11 games. For the season, Connecticut has outscored its opponents by an average of 20.8-14.8 in the fourth quarters. ... Seattle's Lauren Jackson entered the weekend leading the league in scoring (23.8 points per game) and rebounding (9.7). Jackson was also tops in field-goal shooting (53 percent) among players with at least 250 attempts, blocks (56) and free-throw shooting (88 percent) among players with at least 105 attempts. ... Minnesota's Seimone Augustus (22.7 points) was second in scoring, followed by Phoenix's Diana Taurasi (18.8). ... Connecticut's Lindsay Whalen was tops in assists at 5.0 per game. ... Taurasi was leading the league with 83 3-pointers made. ... San Antonio's Sophia Young is averaging 20.5 points on 45 percent shooting from the field in her last eight games. ... Sacramento's Rebekkah Brunson is averaging 11.3 rebounds her last four games, increasing her season average to 8.5.

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK: ''It's about clinching the No. 1 seed. ... We'd have home-court (advantage) all the way through which is important, especially in this tough Western Conference. So that's something we want to strive for. ... We want to keep peaking. We don't want to stop just because we made the playoffs.'' - Mercury guard Cappie Pondexter, on the team's focus over the final games of the season. Phoenix, which clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 2000, can secure the top seed in the West with a combination of four wins and/or losses by second-place San Antonio.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Dunkel Index

MLB
Dunkel Index

Saturday, August 11

Note: Due to travel requirements, I will not be posting picks for Saturday, August 11 or Sunday, August 12, but will post my next picks late Monday afternoon, August 13. I apologize for any inconvenience...Bob Dunkel.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Saturday, August 11

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National League

LA Dodgers at St. Louis, 3:55 ET FOX
Derek Lowe (R) vs. Braden Looper (R)
Lowe: 0-3 TSR, 9.75 ERA L3 starts
Looper: 8-2 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5

San Diego at Cincinnati, 3:55 ET
Justin Germano (R) vs. Bobby Livingston (L)
Germano: 2-8 TSR 2nd half of season
Livingston: 5-1 Over as an underdog

Milwaukee at Houston, 7:05 ET
Jeff Suppan (R) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (L)
Suppan: Milwaukee 8-2 SU vs. Houston
Rodriguez: 2-6 TSR, 5.73 ERA vs. Milwaukee

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Lance Cormier (R) vs. Adam Eaton (R)
Cormier: Atlanta 24-9 Over 2nd half of season
Eaton: 10-2 Over when the total is 10 or higher

Florida at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Scott Olsen (L) vs. Tom Glavine (L)
Olsen: Florida 1-8 SU as a road underdog of +150 to +200
Glavine: 22-4 TSR at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

Chicago Cubs at Colorado, 8:05 ET
Rich Hill (L) vs. Josh Fogg (R)
Hill: 16-6 Under in all starts
Fogg: 10-1 TSR at home on Saturdays

(TC) Pittsburgh at San Francisco, 3:55 ET FOX
Tony Armas (R) vs. Tin Lincecum (R)
Armas: 0-3 TSR, 13.11 ERA in road starts
Lincecum: SF 9-0 Under at home after having lost 5 or 6 of 7

(TC) Washington at Arizona, 8:05 ET
John Lannan (L) vs. Brandon Webb (R)
Lannan: Washington 0-4 SU vs. Arizona
Webb: SF 219-93 SU as a home favorite of -150 or more


American League

(TC) Oakland at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Dan Haren (R) vs. Justin Verlander (R)
Haren: Oakland 14-3 Under on Saturdays
Verlander: 21-5 TSR vs. teams with a losing record

(TC) Boston at Baltimore, 3:55 ET FOX
Josh Beckett (R) vs. Garrett Olson (L)
Beckett: 7-1 TSR in road starts
Olson: Baltimore 6-15 SU at home vs. Boston

NY Yankees at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Mike Mussina (R) vs. Paul Byrd (R)
Mussina: 3-0 TSR, 3.06 ERA L3 starts
Byrd: Cleveland 0-4 SU vs. Yankees

Seattle at Chicago White Sox, 7:05 ET WGN
Miguel Batista (R) vs. Gavin Floyd (R)
Batista: Seattle 19-5 SU as a favorite of -125 to -175
Floyd: White Sox 22-11 Under at home vs. righties

Toronto at Kansas City, 7:10 ET
Dustin McGowan (R) vs. Leo Nunez (R)
McGowan: Toronto 6-14 SU Away with a money line of -100 to -150
Nunez: Kansas City 13-3 Over on Saturday

Tampa Bay at Texas, 8:35 ET
Edwin Jackson (R) vs. John Rheinecker (L)
Jackson: TB 37-10 Over on grass field
Rheinecker: Texas 6-1 Over vs Tampa Bay

Minnesota at LA Angels, 9:05 ET
Carlos Silva (R) vs. John Lackey (R)
Silva: Minnesots 27-9 Under in August
Lackey: 29-11 TSR working on 5 or 6 days rest

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

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[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB

Saturday, August 11

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Tips and Trends
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Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (FOX | 3:55 PM ET)

Boston’s Josh Beckett is 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four career starts versus Baltimore. The power right-hander suffered a 5-3 loss two starts back against the Orioles, allowing five earned runs and nine hits over eight innings. SLIGHT EDGE: RED SOX
Beckett has been truly dominating on the road this season, going 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA in eight starts. He’s managed to strike out 48 batters and just one home run over 56 2/3 innings away from Fenway Park. EDGE: RED SOX
Baltimore left-hander Brian Burres has made five career outings versus Boston, including a 6-3 road victory in his only start against them. He allowed two runs and seven hits over five innings of work in that start, but also issued five walks and struck out just three batters. SLIGHT EDGE: ORIOLES
Burres is a solid 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in 12 home outings in 2007, giving up just 32 hits in 41 innings of work. EDGE: ORIOLES
The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.



Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (FOX | 3:55 PM ET)

Los Angeles starter Derek Lowe is a disappointing 1-3 with a 6.33 ERA in four career starts versus St. Louis. The sinker ball pitcher has allowed an incredible 37 hits in just 21 1/3 innings against them. EDGE: CARDINALS
Lowe is an even 5-5 on the road this season with a very respectable 3.24 ERA. He’s allowed just three earned runs in his last 16 2/3 innings away from Dodger Stadium. EDGE: DODGERS
St. Louis right-hander Braden Looper is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.89 ERA in six daytime starts this season. He’s allowed just one home run in 38 innings of work. BIG EDGE: CARDINALS
The Cardinals have alternated wins and losses in Looper’s last eight starts overall. He picked up a 10-5 victory in his last starts versus San Diego, giving up four earned runs and six hits over 6 1/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: DODGERS
The Dodgers are 4-1 in Lowe’s last five starts as a road favorite.



Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers (7:05 PM ET)

Oakland’s Dan Haren has a losing 1-2 record and 4.78 ERA in four career starts versus Detroit. The All-Star right-hander picked up a 7-3 home victory over the Tigers on July 31, surrendering two earned runs and six hits over six innings. SLIGHT EDGE: TIGERS
Haren is a perfect 3-0 record and 3.13 ERA in five starts in the second-half of the season. He’s allowed just one home run in 31 2/3 innings since being the American League starter in the All-Star game. EDGE: A’S
Tigers ace Justin Verlander hasn’t been his dominating self since the All-Star break, posting an even 1-1 record and 5.23 ERA in five starts. He’s allowed 18 earned runs and 33 hits in 31 innings of work. SLIGHT EDGE: A’S
Detroit has picked up three consecutive victories at home with Verlander on the mound, as the offense has supplied the right-hander with 28 runs of support over that span. EDGE: TIGERS
The Athletics are 11-3 in Haren’s last 14 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.



New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians (7:05 PM ET)

Yankees right-hander Mike Mussina is just 10-9 with a 4.90 ERA in 24 career starts versus the Indians. He posted an even 1-1 record and 6.94 ERA in two starts against them in 2006, allowing nine runs and 14 hits over 11 2/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: INDIANS
Mussina has tallied a solid 3-1 record since the All-Star break, but still has posted a relatively high 4.76 ERA. New York’s offense has supplied the veteran right-hander with 31 runs of support over his last three starts. EDGE: YANKEES
Cleveland’s Paul Byrd has faced New York just seven times in his long career, going 1-3 with a 3.28 ERA. He posted an 0-2 record and 4.22 ERA in two starts against the Yankees in 2006. SLIGHT EDGE: YANKEES
Byrd has an unimpressive 5.43 home ERA this season, but he moved his record to 6-2 at Jacobs Field with a dominating performance against Minnesota. He limited the Twins to just four hits over nine shutout innings. EDGE: INDIANS
The Indians are 17-6 in Byrd’s last 23 home starts.



Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros (7:05 PM ET)

Milwaukee’s Jeff Suppan is a dismal 2-6 with a 4.71 ERA in 12 career games versus Houston. He grabbed a 6-3 home victory over the Astros on June 27, allowing three earned runs and seven hits over six innings of work. SLIGHT EDGE: ASTROS
Suppan has struggled mightily away from Miller Park, going 3-7 with a 5.80 ERA in 12 road starts. He’s managed to walk 28 batters and strike out just 32 batters in 71 1/3 innings away from Milwaukee. EDGE: ASTROS
Astros left-hander Wandy Rodriguez has a losing 2-4 record and 5.60 ERA in nine career outings versus the Brewers. He’s posted an 0-2 record against Milwaukee this season, giving up 12 earned runs and 16 hits over 11 innings. EDGE: BREWERS
Rodriguez has faltered since the All-Star break, going 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA in five starts. Opposing batters are hitting .277 against him in the second-half compared to just .246 in his 17 starts before the break. EDGE: BREWERS
The Astros are 7-1 in Rodriguez’s last eight starts as a home favorite.



Florida Marlins at New York Mets (7:10 PM ET)

Florida left-hander Scott Olsen is an even 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in six career starts versus New York. He’s an even 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against the Mets this season, but picked up a 9-6 victory in his last outing at Shea Stadium. SLIGHT EDGE: MARLINS
Life away from Dolphin Stadium has been a struggle for Olsen all season, posting a 2-6 record and 6.71 ERA in 11 road starts. He’s allowed 10 runs and 16 hits over his last six innings away from South Florida. EDGE: METS
New York’s Tom Glavine is an impressive 6-1 with a 3.14 ERA in 10 home starts this season. The Mets have won four straight home games with Glavine on the mound, as the left-hander has allowed just five earned runs over that span. EDGE: METS
Glavine has performed masterfully under the lights this season with a 9-3 record and 3.42 ERA compared to a miserable 1-3 record and 8.42 ERA during the day. EDGE: METS
The OVER is 5-1 in Olsen’s last six starts versus the Mets.



Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies (8:05 PM ET)

Chicago starter Rich Hill looks to rebound from his only career start versus Colorado, after allowing six runs and six hits in 4 2/3 innings against them on August 11. SLIGHT EDGE: ROCKIES
Hill has picked up just one victory in the second-half despite posting an impressive 2.64 ERA. The left-hander was 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 13 outings after the All-Star break in 2006. EDGE: CUBS
Colorado’s Josh Fogg is just 6-7 with a 5.85 ERA in 19 career starts versus Chicago. He posted a perfect 2-0 record and 3.46 ERA in two starts against them last season. SLIGHT EDGE: ROCKIES
Fogg has bounced back nicely after a rough first-half of the season, going 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break. He’s walked just seven batters and given up 22 hits in 25 innings in the second-half. EDGE: ROCKIES
The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.



Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (9:05 PM ET)

Minnesota right-hander Carlos Silva is 5-1 with a 4.06 ERA in eight career outings versus Los Angeles. He tallied a 7-5 victory over the Angels four starts back, but allowed four earned runs and 10 hits over 6 2/3 innings. SLIGHT EDGE: TWINS
Silva has struggled mightily on the road, going 3-8 with a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts. The Twins have lost his last three starts away from the Metrodome, allowing five earned runs in each of those outings. EDGE: ANGELS
Los Angeles starter John Lackey is 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA in 11 career starts versus Minnesota. The right-hander was handed a 7-5 loss by the Twins on July 20, allowing a season-high 10 hits over five innings. SLIGHT EDGE: TWINS
The Angels have picked up victories in six of Lackey’s last seven starts overall, including his last three over AL West-rivals Oakland and Seattle. EDGE: ANGELS
The Angels are 11-4 in Lackey’s last 15 home starts.

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[pm530]

Baseball – Betting Notes

MLB


Saturday, August 11

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MLB Betting Notes
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Saturday’s MLB betting notes

Dodgers say bye-bye to batting blues?

The Los Angeles Dodgers “exploded” for five runs on Thursday night to beat the Cincinnati Reds in extra innings. Rafael Furcal, the Dodgers’ newly-minted leadoff hitter following Juan Pierre’s demotion to seventh in the batting order, hit the game-winning homer in the 11th inning.

Los Angeles delivered a payday as -128 road favorites to snap a six-game losing streak. The Dodgers had dropped 11 of their previous 13 games largely due to their silent sticks: L.A. was held to two or fewer runs in eight of those games as both the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres pulled away in the NL West.

The switch at leadoff wasn’t the only change, as manager Grady Little benched veterans Luis Gonzalez and Nomar Garciaparra. The Dodgers then acquired pinch-hitter deluxe Mark Sweeney after the game to boost to their lineup, which has scored only 2.8 runs per game since July 24.

The Dodgers have a 50-50 shot of blowing out the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday afternoon at Busch Stadium. Braden Looper takes the Hill for the Redbirds and all of Looper’s last four starts have played over the total as he’s alternated lopsided wins and losses.

Derek Lowe pitches for the Dodgers, explaining why they opened as -120 road favorites for Saturday’s game. The opening total was pegged at 8 ½ runs.


Rockies already reached their summit?

In the meantime, the Colorado Rockies have caught up with the Dodgers by playing solid baseball after they’d been written off in the NL West playoff hunt.

"What impresses me most about this team is its confidence is not tied to the last game's results," manager Clint Hurdle told the Rocky Mountain News after Thursday’s 10-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs. Colorado had been a -108 home favorite for the game, which it trailed 9-1 after just three innings.

It’s optimistic talk from Hurdle, challenged by injuries to position players and pitchers alike.

Willy Taveras and Todd Helton both missed Thursday’s game and while they hope to return soon, it’s not good that it’s a leg injury bothering speedster Taveras and a back injury shelving cleanup hitter Helton. Jason Hirsh joined Rodrigo Lopez as Colorado starters placed on the DL since the beginning of August.

The Rockies send Josh Fogg to the mound on Saturday night to face Chicago southpaw Rich Hill. Colorado opened as -115 favorites with the Mile-High total set at 10 ½ runs.


Tigers have lost their bite

For the first three months of the 2007 MLB season, it was assumed that the second-place finisher in the AL Central would claim the AL wild card spot as a consolation prize. Now that the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees have both caught up to the Detroit Tigers, there’s suddenly August pressure in Motown.

“We're playing like it just doesn't mean enough to us," manager Jim Leyland told the Bay City News after splitting a series with the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays this week.

“And I don't mean anybody's not hustling or anybody doesn't care. But when you struggle and you go through some tough periods with injuries and stuff like that, that's the way the air of the team smells. It's got to mean enough to you to push through all that stuff."

Detroit had lost 11 of their last 14 games before starting this weekend’s series with the Oakland A’s and were favored in nine of those losses, which doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Tigers backers.

It won’t be any easier on Saturday when the Tigers face AL ERA leader Danny Haren. The Tigers remain -120 favorites on the opening line because they send Justin Verlander to the hill. The total for the expected pitchers’ duel opened at 8 runs.


Seattle adds more spark to lineup already on fire

The mighty M’s, in the meantime, scored 31 runs in their three-game sweep over the Baltimore Orioles before facing the Chicago White Sox this weekend. The Mariners either outscored or came within a half-run of each game’s total by themselves.

Seattle’s offense was already causing headaches for opposing pitchers before Adam Jones arrived on the scene. The 22-year old rookie outfielder’s performance in the Baltimore finale suggests there are more headaches on the way.

"You can tell what a special talent he is," Mariners manager John McLaren told the Seattle Times after Jones went 3-for-4 with a walk and scored four runs. "He can do everything. He's a good fit for this club. He's starting to show what he's about. This is why we brought him up."

That Jones isn’t assured of an everyday role merely underlines the Mariners’ depth.

Seattle’s potent lineup eyes Gavin Floyd as its next victim on Saturday night at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago and oddsmakers apparently expect the Marniers to keep up their pace: Seattle opened as -135 road favorites with the total set at 10 ½ runs. Miguel Batista starts for the visitors.

Up-and-coming in the nation’s capital

We have already doted on the Washington Nationals’ moneymaking ways, but the team’s hurlers deserve another look.

Washington went 11-4 in the 15 games preceding this weekend’s series against the Diamondbacks, winning 9.6 units for backers along the way (a $100 bet on Washington to win each of the last 15 games would have resulted in $960 of profit). The key? The Nationals have held opponents to three of fewer runs in 10 of those 15 games with a largely unheralded and unknown cast of pitchers.

The Fredericksburg Free-Lance Star notes Washington’s plan to base its future around pitching. MLB bettors can check out an intended lynchpin of those future plans on Saturday when John Lannan takes the hill. The 22-year old southpaw has improved in each of his three MLB starts, culminating in last Monday’s seven-inning, one-run outing against the San Francisco Giants.

Lannan faces the ultimate test with 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb taking the hill for the NL West-leading Diamondbacks. Arizona could hardly be a heavier favorite, opening with a hefty -245 price tag. The total opened at 8 runs.

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[pm530]

Baseball – Gameday

MLB


Saturday, August 11

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Gameday
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Saturday MLB Gameday

Josh Beckett, Dan Haren, and John Lackey will all be looking to add to their impressive win totals when they take to the mound on Saturday. Here is your MLB Gameday . . .

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, 3:55pm ET
Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.31 ERA) vs. Garrett Olson (1-0, 3.86 ERA)

Beckett won his first start in the month of August, holding the Mariners to a single earned run on eight hits over 6 2-3 innings (and striking out nine) on Sunday. The righthander will now try to pick up his 15th win of the season against Baltimore; Beckett was knocked around for five earned runs over eight innings by the O's back on July 31.

The Orioles will turn to the rookie Olson on Saturday. The lefthander made two starts for the team in July, going 1-0 with a no-decision in those games. Olson gave up two earned runs on five hits over 4 1-3 innings versus the White Sox on July 4, and came back to allow two earned runs on six hits over five innings against Chicago on July 15.


Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, 7:05pm ET
Dan Haren (13-3, 2.46 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (11-4, 3.60 ERA)

Haren hasn't tasted defeat since July 6, when he was handed a loss by the Mariners. Since that outing the righthander has gone 3-0 with two no-decisions, allowing either two or three earned runs in each of those five contests. Haren got a win versus the Tigers on July 31, surrendering two earned runs on six hits over his six innings of work.

Verlander has been stuck on 11 wins since July 15, when he beat the Mariners. The righthander is 0-1 with three no-decisions in his last four starts. Against the Athletics on July 31 Verlander gave up three earned runs on seven hits over 5 1-3 innings, while he allowed four earned runs on eight hits over six innings last time out against Tampa Bay.

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, 8:05pm ET
John Lannan (1-0, 3.71 ERA) vs. Brandon Webb (11-8, 2.92 ERA)

Lannan is 1-0 with two no-decisions in his three outings since being called up on July 26. In his debut against the Phillies the lefthander gave up four runs over 4 1-3 innings, but he got his first win by limiting the Reds to two runs over 5 2-3 innings on August 1. Versus the Giants on Monday Lannan surrendered one earned run over seven innings.

Webb has picked up three straight victories over the Marlins, Padres, and Dodgers, and the righthander didn't allow a single earned run in any of those three games. That performance has dropped Webb's ERA to 2.92 on the season, and he's now struck out 145 batters (while walking 55). Webb tossed a shutout against the Dodgers on Sunday.

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, 9:05pm ET
Carlos Silva (9-12, 4.51 ERA) vs. John Lackey (14-6, 3.11 ERA)

Silva is coming off a strong outing against the Indians, in which he allowed just two earned runs on six hits over seven innings, while striking out six batters. Unfortunately, though, the righthander was still tagged with the loss in that contest. Silva beat the Angels back on July 20 despite allowing four runs on 10 hits in 6 2-3 innings of work.

Lackey is 2-0 with a no-decision over his past three outings, holding the opposition to three or fewer earned runs in each of those games. The righthander gave up three runs on nine hits over 6 2-3 innings against the Athletics last time out, while he surrendered five earned runs on 10 hits in only five innings of work against Minnesota on July 20.

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