One Run Game Stats

[frankb03]

It appears teams with good pitching win more 1-run games

Padres 1st in RA (runs allowed) 12 one-run wins
A's 2nd in RA 13 one-run wins
Dodgers 3rd RA 16 one-run wins
Red Sox 4th RA 12 one-run wins
Angels 5th RA 8 one-run wins

[frankb03]

Hey Frank...good to see you post buddy!!!

Everyone missed your NBA playoff picks....

Hope all is well with you!!!

Thanks! All is well

I decided to quit betting until football season. Betting and capping everyday for hoops and bases is too much of a grind.

[GrandPa]

I think over time the % of one -run games peaks out around 29%.

The last few years at 31%? A little higher than normal.

I think that if you just use , as a rule of thumb, that 30% or 3 of 10 ( duh!) games are one-run affairs, you have all the basis you need.

And I must say I agree with Wayne1218 in not having a blanket ban on Home team RLs, but I won't use a poor offensive team at home in a RL situation, unless they are really pounding the horsehide, and facing some really poor pitching that day. It's still always, about value. And value is still 0, ZERO, if you pick the wrong side.

[Kaptain]

Frank B

Since 2004 including playoffs:

Total Games 8416
Games decided by 1 run 2337 (27.8%)

Home Team Wins 4526
Home Team Wins by 1 run 1407

31.1% of home WINS are 1 run victories.

From a purely statistical perspective laying 1/5 run with a home favorite is a poor investment. I don't believe breaking it down by individual teams over the long has any statistical edge.

Now, lets see if we can add another stat to that scenario, which in my opinion is the big one.....

What percent of home team wins, were by 1 run, and they were leading by 1, going into their 1/2 of the inning, thus, they didn't have to bat, thus mitigating their potential batting power/scoring ability by 11 %.....

We all know, a team can score 1-15 runs in one inning.......

A home team, in the bottom of the 9th, only needs one run, and they play that way.....Bunt to second, move the runner to third, playing for 1 run....Cause when they get that one, it's over....

Walk on Solo HR, win by one game OVER.....whereas if you're visiting in the 9th, you get your complete 9 innings of hitting 100%, instead of 88% if you're the home team.....

The percent of this scenario, would definitely affect the 1 run won percentage, when comparing to the - 1 1/2 RL----this would show just how large that 1/2 run looms for the home team..........

That would be an interesting stat now wouldn't it...

[ctt8410]

Now, lets see if we can add another stat to that scenario, which in my opinion is the big one.....

What percent of home team wins, were by 1 run, and they were leading by 1, going into their 1/2 of the inning, thus, they didn't have to bat, thus mitigating their potential batting power/scoring ability by 11 %.....

We all know, a team can score 1-15 runs in one inning.......

A home team, in the bottom of the 9th, only needs one run, and they play that way.....Bunt to second, move the runner to third, playing for 1 run....Cause when they get that one, it's over....

Walk on Solo HR, win by one game OVER.....whereas if you're visiting in the 9th, you get your complete 9 innings of hitting 100%, instead of 88% if you're the home team.....

The percent of this scenario, would definitely affect the 1 run won percentage, when comparing to the - 1 1/2 RL----this would show just how large that 1/2 run looms for the home team..........

That would be an interesting stat now wouldn't it...

Does it matter how the home team goes about eventually winning by 1 run? Just the fact that they won by 1 run, correct? The final result is all we care about as gamblers and Frank gave a nice summary of the final results above.

[wayne1218]

Kaptain, Those numbers are all added into the % aren't they? If it happened before like it does, than it is included in past numbers shown. If that's the case, they still don't lie and show no disadvantage in laying -1.5 @ home.

The same thing happens when laying 1.5 on a road team doesn't it? A team is up 2 and in the bottom of the 9th they give a free base while covering the base lines. They give up one run all the time when they are only concerned with the guy at the plate and not on base? What is the difference?

[wayne1218]

Kaptain, I respect you and anyone who gambles a certain way with their own beliefs. God knows i have my own but i think the point we are trying to make is that saying laying -1.5 @ home is a worse investment, is just not true. The numbers show that laying -1.5 with home teams is financially no different than playing a Home team on the ML in the long run leaving no overall disadvantage at all.

[Kaptain]

My Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuutha Wayne

Kaptain, Those numbers are all added into the % aren't they? If it happened before like it does, than it is included in past numbers shown. If that's the case, they still don't lie and show no disadvantage in laying -1.5 @ home.

The same thing happens when laying 1.5 on a road team doesn't it? A team is up 2 and in the bottom of the 9th they give a free base while covering the base lines. They give up one run all the time when they are only concerned with the guy at the plate and not on base? What is the difference?

BaseBall games are generalky averaged out a about 9 runs per game, or converts to 1 run per inning....

Not having that last at bat is 11 % less of their scoring opportunities, that they could have had.....

If we could find out how many of those one run home team wins, occurred without the home team batting, mathamaticly, it would definitely change a teams percent of covering advantages................Now granted, each team can be played differently....Strong SP/BP ERA teams, would favor the - 1 1/2, strong hitting teams, such as your illustration the Yanks, would be an advantage.....we're talking as a general rule, and I'm a percent man, the odds would be against ya.....Generally...Overall

I've had enough discussing this topic, as it has been beat to death before....Nothing personal

I personaly don't play home teams - 1 1/2, and you do....It's as simple as that....If we all had the same Ideas, we'd all do the same thing for a living, and we'd all have the same wife, and our bookie could take 1 big bet, instead of a 100 lil ones......

One could look at that site, and extract any figure, and make it work for his beliefs.........We might call it "Lobbying" for our opinion

[Kaptain]

Wayne

Kaptain, I respect you and anyone who gambles a certain way with their own beliefs. God knows i have my own but i think the point we are trying to make is that saying laying -1.5 @ home is a worse investment, is just not true. The numbers show that laying -1.5 with home teams is financially no different than playing a Home team on the ML in the long run leaving no overall disadvantage at all.

Until we have the figures that show, how many times the home team was winning by 1, going into the Ninth, I can say that..........

They lost some 11 % potential scoring opportunities.......That has to make a difference.....

When they're batting less than the other team, just cause they were ahead by 1....

IMO, it is TRUE.....kapt

[wayne1218]

O.K. Kaptain. Maybe the home crowd offsets the 11% though because nobody is extracting anything. We are using overall numbers provided by frank and they show that the 11% stat means nothing in the end result financially. There is no other way to say it except for reading the numbers provided. I'm done too.

[wayne1218]

Until we have the figures that show, how many times the home team was winning by 1, going into the Ninth, I can say that..........

They lost some 11 % potential scoring opportunities.......That has to make a difference.....

When they're batting less than the other team, just cause they were ahead by 1....

IMO, it is TRUE.....kapt

Kaptain, In all honesty opinions are great BUT numbers don't lie and they show no disadvantage. Why can't you just admit that? lol

[Kaptain]

ctt

Does it matter how the home team goes about eventually winning by 1 run? Just the fact that they won by 1 run, correct? The final result is all we care about as gamblers and Frank gave a nice summary of the final results above.

you missed the concept of this totaly.....The home team wins by 1, doesn't matter how, I'm saying it's to your disadvantage to take the Home Team - 1 1/2, and Wayne says it doesn't............

Home team by 1, doesn't cover the RL - 1 1/2, it takes 2 runs for that......

Thats what Wayne and I are talking about....

[ChuckLazar]

Kaptain, In all honesty opinions are great BUT numbers don't lie and they show no disadvantage. Why can't you just admit that? lol

He won't admit it because he's a hard head and has developed a certain way he bets and playing -1.5 runs at home is not one of them. But the figures show that you would have won in the long haul so far this year by playing them.
Nothing more or less is going to change that as of today (stats don't lie).

I have given the -1.5 every time I played Pgh, LAA and the NYY so far this year and am winning a hell of a lot more than losing.
To each their own I guess.

Either way winning is all that counts, no matter how you do it.
Kapt has been very succesful at what he does, as does Neil and some others.

[Kaptain]

Wayne

Kaptain, In all honesty opinions are great BUT numbers don't lie and they show no disadvantage. Why can't you just admit that? lol

I have a problem with #'s Wayne.....I couldn't go past the 3rd grade, cause my Daddy was still in the 4th....Mother wouldn't allow it, said it would embarass her....

[wayne1218]

I have a problem with #'s Wayne.....I couldn't go past the 3rd grade, cause my Daddy was still in the 4th....Mother wouldn't allow it, said it would embarass her....

Shit, i forgot, i'm going to translate the stats by using rotation numbers and then i'll bet you get it!