One Run Game Stats

[frankb03]

Las Vegas probably made it that way meaning equal advantage at the window.

There's lots of truth in this statement. Or equal disadvantage for the player.

I'm sure Vegas has calculated that -1 and -1.5 is probably the same house advantage. Although, the spread between -1 and -1.5 varies.

[wayne1218]

Or equal disadvantage for the player.

I think that is the perfect term for it frank. I bet if you asked Vegas if playing a home team and laying -1.5 was a bad investment, they would say it's no worse than any other baseball investment because of the change in price when you lay it. The wins go down and the payouts go up to offset it. They know gamblers have studied this stuff for years and so have they. They want every decision to be a 50/50 proposition and i'm sure this is no different.

[ericeric]

My buddies and I spent a lot of time with similar analysis in football and basketball with buying points etc...

In the end, we ALWAYS came out with the conclusion that Vegas prices these options correctly. They know how much everything is worth. Whether it's points in bball or fball or +/-1.5 in bases, on Vegas' end, it's a perfectly efficient market. This is why everyone should be open to all bets, and should never shut themselves off from any options.

We all hate certain bets (laying the 1.5 with home teams), and it's mostly because that bet has burned us in the past. I hate 1.5 with home teams because it's so hard in extras, but when you hit the 1.5 in extras (like the Dbacks just did, which is awesome if you read my gambling story) it makes it all so sweet.

[griswold]

I've now lost five in a row and tonite's loss was by nine runs. i lost two games Sunday by a combined 15 runs.

Does anybody know how I can place a bet with +8 runs?

Come to think of it, I'd still have lost.

[Kaptain]

wayne

The home team has won 767 games by 1 run where they didn't bat in the 9th inning.

Based on my earlier post in post#9 where the Home Team Wins by 1 run 1407 games 54.5% of the 1 run victories by the home team never bat in the 9th.

Let's add another 322 games the home team scored at least 1 run in the 9th to win by 1 run.

Meaning 1089 (77.4%) one run wins the home team didn't get all their at bats in the 9th as it wasn't needed.

This is the stat I was looking for....Now maybe you and others can understand what I'm saying.....

Before the game starts, due to the home team not batting, and or, getting 1 run, and it's over, the - 1.5 on a home team is a bad percentage bet.....

and you guys keep telling me why won't I understand and I'm hard headed.....

Geez---that's a hi ass percentage in my books.....kaptain

[wayne1218]

This is the stat I was looking for....Now maybe you and others can understand what I'm saying.....

Before the game starts, due to the home team not batting, and or, getting 1 run, and it's over, the - 1.5 on a home team is a bad percentage bet.....

and you guys keep telling me why won't I understand and I'm hard headed.....

Geez---that's a hi ass percentage in my books.....kaptain

OMG ... Kaptain, You ARE hard headed. How many times or ways do we have to explain to you that your little % is included in the overall numbers that PROVE it is NO WORSE of a wager than any other. Gaining .80-1.0 units clearly makes up for it. It has been explained and agreed upon by several different people here and the only one who doesn't "Get it" is you.

[Kaptain]

go to post # 7....where I say home team - 1 1/2 mitigates/lessens your odds of covering.........

Apparently it does.....What I think is happening is I'm looking at and preaching percentages, while you and the others are preaching return on investment.......

You say I'm hard headed, well till proven wrong, which as of yet, I'm not.....I'll stay hard headed....

The percent of covering home team - 1 1/2 ia a bad wager looking at it from a percentile of winning basis.....

The figures Frank shows, vereifys that.....Now what you get in return is another story....

Odds are 50-50 you'll pick the right side....

Now add, the fact they have to win by 2, adds to the lesser chance to cover....

Now factor in Franks figures, of Home teams not finishing their at bats, and percent won by 1 run, thus making the - 1 1/2 a loser....

So before the game, you're gonna tell me that, the percent of you hitting this wager is high.....Over all as an average as Franks figures show.......

Then I'll stay hard headed, and won't play em....You, all others who agree, can certainly keep a doing it....I still say, percentage wise, as indicated by figures you've seen, it's not a hi percent wager....

That's whats wonderful about this world, we all have different opinions and views, and I respect other peoples....

I just don't agree.......kapt

[wayne1218]

Kaptain it goes with everything else and shopping lines. Yours my friend are simply put, not good. These are the home favorites remaining tonight copied and pasted from my site (Wagerstreet). It's actually alot higher than .80 units in most cases and adds even more fuel to our claim.

8:05 PM 952 Milwaukee B Sheets -165 -1½ +140 (+1.05 gain)

8:10 PM 964 Chicago White Sox J Danks -101 -1½ +190 (+.91 gain)

8:10 PM 966 St Louis B THOMPSON -155 -1½ +125 (+.80 gain)

9:40 PM 972 Arizona D Davis -125 -1½ +162 (+.87 gain)

10:05 PM 974 San Diego J Peavy -247 -1½ -105 (+1.42 gain)

10:05 PM 976 Oakland C Gaudin -180 -1½ +116 (+.96 gain)

10:05 PM 978 Los Angeles Angels B Colon -156 -1½ +135 (+.91 gain)

10:05 PM 980 Seattle M Batista -131 -1½ +170 (+1.01 gain)

Another example using the games i posted here before they started.

Wagering all 8 home teams on the ML Vs -1.5

ML
---
(4-4) -1.68 Units

-1.5
------
(4-4) +1.27 Units

[wayne1218]

go to post # 7....where I say home team - 1 1/2 mitigates/lessens your odds of covering.........

Apparently it does.....What I think is happening is I'm looking at and preaching percentages, while you and the others are preaching return on investment.......

You say I'm hard headed, well till proven wrong, which as of yet, I'm not.....I'll stay hard headed....

The percent of covering home team - 1 1/2 ia a bad wager looking at it from a percentile of winning basis.....

The figures Frank shows, vereifys that.....Now what you get in return is another story....

Odds are 50-50 you'll pick the right side....

Now add, the fact they have to win by 2, adds to the lesser chance to cover....

Now factor in Franks figures, of Home teams not finishing their at bats, and percent won by 1 run, thus making the - 1 1/2 a loser....

So before the game, you're gonna tell me that, the percent of you hitting this wager is high.....Over all as an average as Franks figures show.......

Then I'll stay hard headed, and won't play em....You, all others who agree, can certainly keep a doing it....I still say, percentage wise, as indicated by figures you've seen, it's not a hi percent wager....

That's whats wonderful about this world, we all have different opinions and views, and I respect other peoples....

I just don't agree.......kapt

Kaptain, When you are earning an EXTRA .80 to 1.00 Units per wager it makes up for the DROP in % of wins. Nobody is arguing that you win less. Everyone knows that but the payouts offset the lesser % in the end and IT DOESN'T MATTER that the win % goes down because in the end, it is financially equal.

P.S.

We already have proved you wrong in the numbers provided. Whether or not you accept that is up to you.

[Kaptain]

wayne

Another example using the games i posted here before they started.

Wagering all 8 home teams on the ML Vs -1.5

ML
---
(4-4) -1.68 Units

-1.5
------
(4-4) +1.27 Units

I did some research yesterday, and it's actually even better than you posted or illustrated.........---.90 to 1.00....

so for this, I'll apologize to CTT and you, as you were correct on thease figures....

Now lets go back to my question....

Based on the figures, we've all seen, are the percentages in ypur favor of winning, when you take a home team - 1 1/2.....

I'd love to see your answer here.....Nothing to do with return, simply are percentages for you or against you....

I reiterate, you guys are relating to returns more than I, and I'm relating to percentages as I've always said......

I still say, from a percent basis of winning, it's not good....kapt

[wayne1218]

I did some research yesterday, and it's actually even better than you posted or illustrated.........---.90 to 1.00....

so for this, I'll apologize to CTT and you, as you were correct on thease figures....

Now lets go back to my question....

Based on the figures, we've all seen, are the percentages in ypur favor of winning, when you take a home team - 1 1/2.....

I'd love to see your answer here.....Nothing to do with return, simply are percentages for you or against you....

I reiterate, you guys are relating to returns more than I, and I'm relating to percentages as I've always said......

I still say, from a percent basis of winning, it's not good....kapt

Read my post right above this.

[wayne1218]

Nobody is arguing that you win less games but the losers cost less and the winner pay more. Both of those offset the % lost making it no different in the end than any other wager. Read what i said about Vegas and read franks reply. Vegas eliminates advantages and disadvantages with money in every aspect of gambling. This is no different.

[Kaptain]

wayne

Nobody is arguing that you win less games but the losers cost less and the winner pay more. Both of those offset the % lost making it no different in the end than any other wager. Read what i said about Vegas and read franks reply. Vegas eliminates advantages and disadvantages with money in every aspect of gambling. This is no different.

are you saying that the percentile of winning is less for the home team -1.5, but the return on the ones that do hit, are more rewarding because Vegas has adjusted the lines accordingly......

If that is what you're saying, then we agree.....I started out saying the percentile of winning was not good.......it blossomed from there....

Now taking all this in consideration, you know, and I know, we still have to pick the time and place to do it, to make it rewarding.....However; based on the percentile of winning, I opt to not do it.....

Everything I do is based a lot on percentages.....and this is one of em......

I have a call in to one of my friends (35 years at H-----s Casino), and I've e-mailed him these figures....I'll get his input later....

For now, best to you and others on Home Teams - 1 1/2, as I'll defer from playing em.....

We've beat this to death....I'm moving on....

[wayne1218]

are you saying that the percentile of winning is less for the home team -1.5, but the return on the ones that do hit, are more rewarding because Vegas has adjusted the lines accordingly......

If that is what you're saying, then we agree

Phew ... Finally ... YES!

We never debated the % being worse but we know wins and losses don't mean as much in baseball as it does in sports such as Hoops and Football. It's about the money and based on the one thing that matters in the end (Money), it isn't a bad investment.

[Kaptain]

wayne

Phew ... Finally ... YES!

We never debated the % being worse but we know wins and losses don't mean as much in baseball as it does in sports such as Hoops and Football. It's about the money and based on the one thing that matters in the end (Money), it isn't a bad investment.

PHEW----I AGREE with---
I think all along we were referring to differnt things, me percentile, you, ctt, and others, the return.....

My post # 7 states, that the percentile of winning is mitigated by wagering home teams -1.5.....and it is....

Hitting a lesser percent of winners, using the -1.5 can also be rewarding....as proven.....by you and others...

Some play games as investments, good returns, I play em as statistics, and percentile of winning, thus sometimes I playt Hi-run lines....Bad investment----hi percentile of winning...

PHEW-----PHEW--------PHEW-------is right....It's over....Thanks for the debate, reasoning, stats, opinions, and pointing out 2 sides to each argument.....

anyways, I found the damn place for 1 run games, we were all looking for..........shared it----opened pandoras box, not my intention...........Hope someone finds the site useful.... kaptain