One Run Game Stats

[Lsufan]

Kaptain asked that I post this for him. This should answer alot of questions regarding team records winning/losing by 1 run .....


Click on the link below, then click on the tab at the top of the page 1-RUN. It is the 6th to last one from the right.


CLICK HERE

[Kaptain]

Thank you Jimmy----this should answer a question that has been floating around the Forum, since I'm here.....Over 3 years now.....

Hope it helps all to get a better vision of 1 Run games overall.....
as of 6-17---yesterdays print out, heres some 1 run game leaders...

Toronto 25 of 68................................................ .............37 %
Baltimore 21 of 69...........30 %
Cleveland 21 of 68...................31 %
Oakland 23 of 68........................................34 %
Washington 21 of 69........30 %
Cubs 20 of 67.................30 %
Houston 22 of 69...........................32 %
Cincinnatti 21 of 70.........30 %
San Diego 26 of 68................................................ ........................38 %
Arizona 25 of 70...............................................3 6 %
Dodgers 23 of 69...............................33 %
Giants 21 of 68.......................31 %

I just glanced at the rest, but had originally stated I thought it was about 28-29 %.....Holds true....Lot's higher than one would think..........Better than 1 out of 4 games, are 1 run games....go figure....

[CoverBoy]

The key to look for is the the % of Money Line Favorites winning by 1 Run AND the O/U in those games.



Every Time the ML Favorite wins by 1 Run that game could have been Middled.


You need to hone in on ML faves winning by 1 with O/U at 6 ... then 6 1/2 ... 7 .... 7 1/2 etc , etc ...


This info may zero in on which middles to play in certain conditions.


-CB

[wayne1218]

That doesn't really tell the whole story though. The NYY have 35 wins and 31 of them have been by 2+ runs. These stats don't tell that. That means 89% of their wins. Taking +1.5 against the NYY is a horrible wager to turn around and suddenly lay juice on. Either take their opponent to win outright or don't take them at all.

[BettorsChat]

Nice stats page I didn't know that they had that there.

[wayne1218]

I know some people refuse to lay -1.5 with home teams too but it isn't a bad wager in some situations and that's why i believe ignoring -1.5 teams @ home as a whole is not a good rule. Overall it might not be great but with certain teams, you are missing out on a money train. Just sticking with the Yankees, they have 20 wins at home and 19 have been by 2+ runs (95%). At one unit per wager you would gain almost +30 units betting on the Yankees in every home -1.5 instead of straight. You would be killing the books right now if that's all you did using the Yankees.

Boston has 23 wins at home and 16 have been by 2+ runs. Right now if you bet every Red Sox game @ home straight for a unit, you would be right around even money at (23-12). Betting them in every home game -1.5 would put your record @ (16-19) and guess what ... You would still be right around even money on the year and in the same boat. It isn't always as bad of a wager as some think.

[Kaptain]

Geez----guys----I was just answering the question.....

What % of MLB games are decided by 1 run........

I had said about 28-29 %....was pretty damn close....

You can isolate any one team, or more, and get the stat you want for -1 1/2, and + 1 1/2, ve home and visitor..........

I don't have those stats, nor will I take the time to work em up........I helped find where the stats are, and they show 1 run games records at home, and visitor........each can figure it out themselves.....

I personaly don't take home teams, as a rule, - 1 1/2, cause it mathematicly invades/mitigates your odds of covering.......

I can ISOLATE a few teams, and get an exception, I'm using averages of MLB as a whole.........

Each to his own....I at least hope you find this useful, cause we've been asking for 3 years now, where can we find this stat....well, I lucked up and found it....

Use it your way....kapt

[wayne1218]

Kaptain, I used the Yankees as an example only because you came in to my thread Sunday and questioned why i didn't wager differently with them that day. You, and i'm sure others read that and had questions themselves. My posts were made simply to clarify things from my point of view for you and more importantly others who may be new at this. This thread and discussion seems to be based on RL wagers and i wanted to make sure my opinion was a part of it.

[frankb03]

Since 2004 including playoffs:

Total Games 8416
Games decided by 1 run 2337 (27.8%)

Home Team Wins 4526
Home Team Wins by 1 run 1407

31.1% of home WINS are 1 run victories.

From a purely statistical perspective laying 1/5 run with a home favorite is a poor investment. I don't believe breaking it down by individual teams over the long has any statistical edge.

[wayne1218]

Frank, I think teams with bad offense will always cloud those numbers and i think teams with a great offense like the Yankees will have a much different % than the average. Wouldn't you agree that the not so good teams who tend to squeak out wins is probably more like 30%-35% and the real good teams are maybe under 20%? In the end they probably compile the overall numbers but in situations (like every sport gambled), it's proven to be a money maker.

[ctt8410]

Since 2004 including playoffs:

Total Games 8416
Games decided by 1 run 2337 (27.8%)

Home Team Wins 4526
Home Team Wins by 1 run 1407

31.1% of home WINS are 1 run victories.

From a purely statistical perspective laying 1/5 run with a home favorite is a poor investment. I don't believe breaking it down by individual teams over the long has any statistical edge.

Home teams laying 1.5 usually pay about 80 cents more, correct? Assuming you picked all 4526 homewinners at even money, you'd be up 4526 units. If you picked those same teams -1.5 at +180, you'd be up 5614. If the team loses, you lose no matter what, so just subtract 100 for every loss. So I'm confused from a statistical perspective how this is a poor investment.

[wayne1218]

Home teams laying 1.5 usually pay about 80 cents more, correct? Assuming you picked all 4526 homewinners at even money, you'd be up 4526 units. If you picked those same teams -1.5 at +180, you'd be up 5614. If the team loses, you lose no matter what, so just subtract 100 for every loss. So I'm confused from a statistical perspective how this is a poor investment.

That's my point as well. With the price difference, how is it such a bad wager with the home team. It doesn't make sense.

[wayne1218]

Home teams laying 1.5 usually pay about 80 cents more, correct? Assuming you picked all 4526 homewinners at even money, you'd be up 4526 units. If you picked those same teams -1.5 at +180, you'd be up 5614. If the team loses, you lose no matter what, so just subtract 100 for every loss. So I'm confused from a statistical perspective how this is a poor investment.

Based on that, franks stat would have to be at 40% or higher with teams winning by 1 @ home for it to be a bad wager and it isn't even close to that.

If a team wins 10 home games you are up 10 units. If they win 30% by only one and you bet them all -1.5, you are still (7-3) and up 9.6 Units without worrying about any juice from laying the straight number. That % needs to be near 40+ % for it to be a "Bad" investment (imo).

[frankb03]

Frank, I think teams with bad offense will always cloud those numbers and i think teams with a great offense like the Yankees will have a much different % than the average. Wouldn't you agree that the not so good teams who tend to squeak out wins is probably more like 30%-35% and the real good teams are maybe under 20%? In the end they probably compile the overall numbers but in situations (like every sport gambled), it's proven to be a money maker.

For this season the stats don't agree.

Diamondbacks lead baseball with 17 one-run wins. They 3rd from last in runs per game.

Dodgers have 16 one-run wins. They are 6th from the bottom in scoring.

Tigers and A's have 13 one-run wins. They are first and 19th in scoring.

Below are the top five teams in runs scored per game and how many one run wins.

1. Tigers 13
2. Yanks 4 (tied for last in the league)
3. Indians 11 (tied for 10th)
4. Red Sox 12
5. Angels 8

These stats are only for this season. Over the long haul it might differ.

[Chado1]

Hey Frank...good to see you post buddy!!!

Everyone missed your NBA playoff picks....

Hope all is well with you!!!