Wednesday Trends and Indexes 05/30

[pm530]

Pro Basketball - Dunkel Index

NBA
Dunkel Index

Utah at San Antonio
The Jazz let Game Four slip away and most likely the series with it as Utah faces elimination tonight in San Antonio. The Spurs once again demonstrated their mental toughness as they bounced back from a 26-point whipping in Game Three to outscore the Jazz 28-17 in the fourth quarter of Game Four and stretch a one-point lead to a 12-point win (91-79). Utah, meanwhile, suffered a mental meltdown at the end with Derek Fisher and Jerry Sloan both getting tossed. The Jazz also continue to have a tough time finding anyone other than Deron Williams or Carlos Boozer to help on the offensive end with Andrei Kirilenko (8.3 ppg) and Mehmet Okur (7.0 ppg) virtually invisible. The Spurs, who are 12-4 in close-out games since 2003, look like the pick (-7) to close this one out tonight according to Dunkel, which has San Antonio favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 30

Game 509-510: Utah at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 118.622; San Antonio 131.320
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 12 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 189
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7); Over

[pm530]

Hockey - Dunkel Index

NHL
Dunkel Index

Ottawa at Anaheim
The Senators admittedly played a clunker in Game One perhaps because of the eight-day layoff or the travel out West. But even without playing their best hockey, Ottawa was still leading going into the third period before giving up two goals -- the last with 2:51 left -- to lose 3-2. What helped keep the Sens in the game was Anaheim's penchant for penalties. The Ducks, who came in averaging 18.9 penalty minutes in the postseason, gave Ottawa seven more power-play chances, two of which the Senators were able to cash in. Ottawa's power-play success rate is now a solid 30.8 percent (12-of-39) on the road in the playoffs. That kind of reckless play has hurt Anaheim in the past (Game Three vs. Detroit) and could come back to haunt the Ducks tonight if Ottawa comes out sharp. The Senators look like a good underdog pick to bounce back in Game Two according to Dunkel, which has Ottawa favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 30

Game 3-4: Ottawa at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 14.067; Anaheim 13.349
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+1 1/2); Over

[pm530]

Baseball – Hot Lines

MLB
Hot Lines


Wednesday, May 30

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New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (+124, 11)

Tyler Clippard was good in his first career start, and OK in his second, but he shouldn’t be influencing this line. That means the Blue Jays’ home underdog status is almost entirely due to the Yankees’ reputation.

Reputation is just about all New York has to go on these days. The Yankees have lost five straight games, all as favorites, and their usually potent offense is beginning to sputter. They have scored just eight runs in their last four games and are hitting just .243 over the last week.

Another young starter, Jesse Litsch, will pitch for Toronto. He has a 4.24 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in three career starts, but allowed just one run and four hits in 8 2/3 innings in his only home start.

Pick: Blue Jays +124


San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (-144, 8)

New York has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this season. Not good news for San Francisco with the unsteady Barry Zito on the mound.

The Giants left-hander has been as up-and-down as it gets in 2007, going 4-5 and allowing 21 of his 32 earned runs in three starts. Most of his struggles have taken place away from home where he is 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP.

The Mets are hitting a major league best .333 against lefties. They are also tops in baseball in on-base percentage (.393) and OPS (.886) against southpaws.

Tom Glavine will pitch for New York.

Pick: Mets -144


Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (+121, 8 ½)

The Royals have been ice cold since ending a streak that saw them win eight of 10 games. They are 0-6 and have lost by a combined total of 51-13.

Starter Gil Meche is also starting to lag after a great start to the season. He has allowed 19 hits and 12 earned runs in his last two starts after allowing 13 earned runs in his first nine starts.

Baltimore also has a bit of a streak going. The Orioles have won four straight games and seven of their last 11 and bring their top starter to the hill tonight.

Erik Bedard has shown his dominance at times this season, with 83 strikeouts in 68 innings. Poor run support has plagued him lately – the Orioles have managed just 12 runs in his last five starts – but that shouldn’t be a problem considering the struggles of Meche and the Royals.

Pick: Orioles -129

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[pm530]

Baseball – Streaking Pitchers

MLB
Streaking Pitchers


Wednesday, May 30

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Hot

Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels) - There's a reason the Angels kept this guy over his inconsistent older brother: he's better. Weaver is 3-0 over his last three starts with a 2.89 ERA for the Angels, slim -116 home favorites tonight against the Seattle Mariners. Angels bettors have benefitted from Weaver's ability to strike out opposing batters, as the young righty has wrung up nearly a batter an inning during the streak.

Sergio Mitre (Florida Marlins) - Putting Mitre in the rotation has paid dividends for Marlins backers in the month of May. Mitre hasn't lost a decision since April 11 against the Houston Astros. The 26-year-old hurler has soldified himself atop the Marlins' rotation and with a 2-0 record since May 11 with a stellar 1.61 ERA, there's tons of value in Florida tonight as +137 underdogs against the Chicago Cubs.


Cold

Gil Meche (Kansas City Royals) - Meche seems to be coming back down to earth after a great start. He hasn't won since the beginning of the month, and is 0-2 in his last three trips to the bump with a 6.61 ERA. The biggest problem for the former Mariner has been his inability to keep runners from getting on. Royals bettors have suffered from Meche's .403 OBP against and 1.90 WHIP since May 10. Don't expect the bleeding to stop anytime soon. Oddsmakers have Kansas City priced as +121 underdogs tonight against the Baltimore Orioles.

Jamie Moyer (Philadelphia Phillies) - Hopefully this isn't the end of the line for the veteran who started his career when Ronald Reagan was running the country. The numbers haven't been encouraging. The crafty lefty has posted an inflated 7.56 ERA in three trips to the hill since May 10 while striking out only seven batters in more than 16 innings. Books have set Moyer's Phillies as -114 home favorites for tonight's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

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[pm530]

Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Wednesday, May 30

National League

Atlanta at Milwaukee, 1:05 ET
Tim Hudson (R) vs. David Bush (R)
Hudson: Atl 12-3 Over Away vs. righties
Bush: 0-3 TSR, 7.13 ERA L3 starts

Arizona at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Randy Johnson (L) vs. Jamie Moyer (L)
Johnson: Ari 14-5 off BB wins
Moyer: Phi 5-13 vs. lefties

San Diego at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Chris Young (R) vs. Paul Maholm (L)
Young: 16-6 TSR Away
Maholm: Pit 5-21 after batting .333 or better L3 games

LA Dodgers at Washington, 7:05 ET
Derek Lowe (R) vs. Mike Bacsik (L)
Lowe: 10-1 Over after a win by 4+ runs
Bacsik: Wash 9-4 as a home underdog of +125 to +175

San Francisco at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Barry Zito (L) vs. Tom Glavine (L)
Zito: SF 24-10 Under playing with triple revenge
Glavine: 25-8 TSR as a favorite of -110 or higher

Florida at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 ET WGN
Sergio Mitre (R) vs. Ted Lilly (L)
Mitre: Fla 13-3 Over vs. Cubs
Lilly: ChC 1-11 at home after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games

Cincinnati at Houston, 8:05 ET
Aaron Harang (R) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (L)
Harang: 10-3 TSR Away 1st half of season
Rodriguez: Hou 2-11 off 3+ losses

St. Louis at Colorado, 9:05 ET
Todd Wellemeyer (R) vs. Jason Hirsh (R)
Wellemeyer: StL 5-20 as a road underdog of +125 to +175
Hirsh: Col 22-11 Under in night games


American League

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota, 1:10 ET
Jon Garland (R) vs. Scott Baker (R)
Garland: 9-1 TSR on artificial turf
Baker: Min 8-0 Over after scoring 8+ runs BB games

Texas at Oakland, 3:35 ET
Brandon McCarthy (R) vs. Dan Haren (R)
McCarthy: Tex 10-26 as an underdog
Haren: Oak 13-3 Under vs. division opponents

NY Yankees at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Tyler Clippard (R) vs. Jesse Litsch (R)
Clippard: NYY 20-5 Under in May
Litsch: Tor 8-0 Under when the total is 11 or higher

Cleveland at Boston, 7:05 ET
Paul Byrd (R) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Byrd: Cle 0-10 Away off an Under
Matsuzaka: Bos 27-6 as a home favorite of -175 to -200

Detroit at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Nate Robertson (L) vs. James Shields (L)
Robertson: Det 18-4 after scoring 10+ runs
Shields: TB 13-4 Over off BB Overs

Baltimore at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Erik Bedard (L) vs. Gil Meche (R)
Bedard: 9-0 Under as a road favorite of -110 or higher
Meche: KC 5-23 at home after a loss by 4+ runs

Seattle at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Felix Hernandez (R) vs. Jered Weaver (R)
Hernandez: Sea 34-17 Under Away after scoring 2 runs or less
Weaver: LAA 23-9 as a favorite of -110 or higher

[kbsooner21]

Thanks guys!

[pm530]

Baseball Today

MLB
”Baseball Today”


Wednesday, May 30

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SCOREBOARD

Wednesday, May 30

San Francisco at N.Y. Mets (7:10 p.m. EDT). Looking for his 296th career win, Tom Glavine faces off against Barry Zito.

STARS

Tuesday

-Gary Sheffield, Tigers, homered twice and drove in five runs to help Detroit pound Tampa Bay 14-2.
-Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks, had four hits and four RBIs in Arizona's 11-5 win over Philadelphia.
-Matt Belisle, Reds, gave up one run in 7 2-3 innings and struck out a career-high eight and Cincinnati edged Pittsburgh 2-1.
-Justin Morneau, Twins, homered and drove in four runs in Minnesota's 9-2 victory over Chicago.
-Carlos Delgado, Mets, hit two homers, including a game-winning shot in the 12th inning to push New York past San Francisco 5-4.

STINGY

Brad Penny scattered four singles over 6 1-3 innings to help the Los Angeles Dodgers beat Washington 10-0 on Tuesday. Penny improved to 7-1 on the season and has yet to surrender a home run in 70 innings, making him the only pitcher in the majors who has pitched at least 40 innings without allowing a homer. ... Josh Beckett returned from the disabled list and ran his record to 8-0, pitching seven innings of three-hit ball to lead Boston past Cleveland 4-2. He became the first Red Sox starter to win his first eight decisions since Roger Clemens opened the 1986 season 14-0.

STOLE HOME

Aaron Hill stole home for Toronto in a 3-2 win over the Yankees on Tuesday. Facing away, Yankees starter Andy Pettitte didn't notice Hill breaking for the plate until catcher Jorge Posada stepped out and waved his arm. Pettitte threw home but Hill slid in safely ahead of the tag. It was the Blue Jays' first steal of home since Shea Hillenbrand did it August 6, 2005, against the Yankees.

STREAKS

The New York Yankees' losing streak reached five on Tuesday with a 3-2 loss to Toronto. ... Ichiro Suzuki stretched his hitting streak to 22 games in Seattle's 4-1 loss to the Angels. ... Kevin Youkilis extended his hitting streak to 21 games in Boston's 4-1 win over Cleveland. It was Youkilis' ninth consecutive multihit game, the most by a Red Sox batter since Jim Rice in 1978. ... Houston lost their ninth in a row for the first time since Sept. 1996 with a 2-1 loss to Cincinnati. ... Colorado defeated St. Louis 8-3 and have now won seven in a row for the first time since Sept. 1998.

SNAPPED

Detroit stopped a four-game losing streak with a 14-2 win over Tampa Bay on Tuesday. ... White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye had his 14-game hitting streak snapped in a 9-2 loss to Minnesota. ... Texas ended a season-worst six-game skid with a 4-0 victory over Oakland.

SPEAKING

''We don't need Papi. Save him for the playoffs. If we need a big hit, a walkoff, we'll bring him in.'' - Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis, joking about Boston's success with slugger David Ortiz sitting out his third straight game to rest his hamstring. The Red Sox defeated Cleveland 4-2 Tuesday on the strength of a Youkilis homer and a strong effort on the mound from Josh Beckett.

SEASONS

May 30

1922 - Between the morning and afternoon games of a Memorial Day twin bill, Max Flack of the Chicago Cubs was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for Cliff Heathcote. They played one game for each team.

1927 - In the fourth inning of a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, shortstop Jim Cooney of the Chicago Cubs caught Paul Waner's liner, stepped on second to double Lloyd Waner and then tagged Clyde Barnhart coming from first for an unassisted triple play.

1935 - Babe Ruth made his last major league appearance. He played one inning for the Boston Braves against the Philadelphia Phillies. Jim Bivin retired Babe Ruth on an infield grounder in the Babe's final major league at-bat.

1940 - Carl Hubbell of the New York Giants threw 87 pitches in a 7-0 one-hitter against the Brooklyn Dodgers. He faced the minimun 27 batters. Johnny Hudson, who singled, was caught stealing.

1956 - Mickey Mantle hit a home run that came within a foot-and-a-half of leaving Yankee Stadium. It hit the face of the upper deck in righ field, 370 feet from home plate and 117 feet in the air. Mantle became the first player to hit 20 home runs by the end of May as the Yankees beat the Washington Senators 4-3.

1961 - Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris and Bill Skowron each hit two homers to lead the New York Yankees to a 12-3 rout of the Boston Red Sox. Yogi Berra also added a homer.

1962 - Pedro Ramos of the Cleveland Indians tossed a three-hitter and hit two home runs, including a grand slam, for a 7-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles.

1977 - Cleveland's Dennis Eckersley pitched a 1-0 no-hitter against the California Angels.

1982 - Baltimore's Cal Ripken Jr. began his record consecutive games streak by starting at third base against the Toronto Blue Jays.

1987 - Eric Davis hit a grand slam in the third inning, breaking two National League records and leading the Cincinnati Reds to a 6-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Davis became the first NL player to hit three grand slams in a month and his major league-leading 19 homers broke the NL record for most homers in April and May.

1992 - Scott Sanderson became the ninth pitcher to beat all 26 major league teams as New York defeated Milwaukee 8-1. Sanderson joined Nolan Ryan, Tommy John, Don Sutton, Mike Torrez, Rick Wise, Gaylord Perry, Doyle Alexander and Rich Gossage as those who have defeated every club.

2001 - Barry Bonds hit two home runs, moving past Willie McCovey and Ted Williams into 11th place on the career list with 522. Bonds with 17 home runs in May, surpassed the mark set by Mark McGwire in 1998 and Mickey Mantle in 1956.

2003 - Ken Griffey Jr. hit a game-tying home run in the ninth and a go-ahead homer in the top of the 11th to lead Cincinnati over Florida 4-3.

2006 - Vernon Wells hit three home runs and Troy Glaus added two more in Toronto's 8-5 victory over Boston.

Today's birthdays:
Jae Kuk Ryu, 24; Reggie Willits, 26; Manny Ramirez, 35; Scott Eyre, 35.

[pm530]

NBA today

NBA
”NBA Today”


Wednesday, May 30

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SCOREBOARD

Wednesday, May 30

Utah at San Antonio (9 p.m. EDT). The Spurs are one win away from the NBA Finals for the third time in five years.

STARS

Tuesday

-LeBron James and Daniel Gibson, Cavaliers. James scored 25 points and added 11 assists, and Gibson scored a season-high 21 in Cleveland's 91-87 win over Detroit.

HISTORY IN THE MAKING

LeBron James scored 13 of his game-high 25 points in the fourth quarter to lead Cleveland to a 91-87 victory over Detroit on Tuesday night. The series is now tied 2-2. Only the 1976 and 1992 Cavaliers won two games in a conference finals.

STRONG IN DEFEAT

Chauncey Billups scored 23 points but Detroit lost to Cleveland 91-87 on Tuesday night.

STREAKS

LeBron James scored 25 points in Cleveland's 91-87 win over Detroit. The Cavs are 10-0 in the postseason when James scores more than 20 points.

BUSTED

Los Angeles Lakers owner Jerry Buss was arrested early Tuesday for investigation of driving under the influence of alcohol. The 74-year-old Buss was taken into custody shortly before 1 a.m. after he drove his gold Mercedes-Benz station wagon the wrong way on a street in an unincorporated section of Carlsbad that has double yellow lines. Buss was released around 10:30 a.m.

HIRED

The Portland Trail Blazers hired Tom Penn as assistant general manager on Tuesday. Penn has been assistant general manager and legal counsel to the Memphis Grizzlies since 2000. He will assist general manager Kevin Pritchard with player personnel decisions, as well salary cap and collective bargaining issues.

IN THE CARDS

Greg Oden signed a three-year contract worth at least $3 million Tuesday to become a spokesman for Topps Co. Kevin Durant, the freshman who starred at Texas, beat Oden in the card contract race when he signed with Upper Deck earlier this month.

SURGERY

Los Angeles Lakers center Kwame Brown underwent reconstructive surgery on his left ankle Tuesday and might not be ready for the start of training camp in October. Brown is expected to be out for four months. The 25-year-old Brown averaged 8.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and a career-best 1.2 blocked shots in 41 games last season.

SPEAKING

''I told my teammates, 'Get me to the fourth and it's close, and I'll try my best to win.''' - Cleveland's LeBron James after the Cavaliers 91-87 win over Detroit on Tuesday night. James scored 13 of his game-high 25 points in the fourth quarter to help Cleveland tie the series up at 2.

[pm530]

NHL Hockey today

NHL
”Hockey Today”


Wednesday, May 30

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SCOREBOARD

Wednesday, May 30

Ottawa at Anaheim (8 p.m. EDT). The Senators go into Game 2 of the Stanley Cup finals after losing two one-goal leads in Game 1.

NEW GAME

Ottawa's 3-2 loss to Anaheim in the opener of the Stanley Cup finals marks the first time this postseason the Senators have trailed in a series. They haven't lost back-to-back games since December.

SUCCESS

Ottawa is 30.8 percent (12-for-39) on the power play on the road this postseason.

NOT SO SPECIAL

Anaheim averages 18.9 penalty minutes per game, the fourth-highest total in the postseason and the worst among teams to get out of the first round.

NATIONS

Anaheim had more Canadians - 20 listed on the Game 1 roster, to the Ottawa Senators' 14.

MOVES

Phoenix introduced Don Maloney as the new general manager Tuesday. Maloney comes to the Coyotes from the New York Rangers, where he served as assistant general manager and vice president of player personnel. The 48-year-old Maloney spent 10 seasons in the Rangers' front office after 10 1/2 seasons as a left wing for the team.

HONORS

Dave Fay, who covers the Washington Capitals for the Washington Times since the early 1980s, and the late Bill Hewitt, voice of ''Hockey Night in Canada'' for more than 30 years, will be honored by the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto. Fay will receive the Elmer Ferguson Memorial Award while Hewitt will receive the award named for his father, the Foster Hewitt Memorial Award, which honors outstanding contributions to the broadcast profession and the game of hockey. The younger Hewitt was the voice of the Toronto Maple Leafs until 1982. He died in 1996.

RETREATING

Mike Milbury resigned as the New York Islanders vice president of sports properties Tuesday, continuing his steady withdrawal from the team's operations since he stepped down as general manager during a January 2006 shakeup. He will remain as an adviser to Islanders' owner Charles Wang.

SPEAKING

''There's such an interest and a fascination and emotional attachment to hockey in Canada that when you are representing the country, it's remiss not to think that everybody gets or most everybody gets caught up into it. That's a great thing. I remember when other Canadian teams like the Montreal Canadiens won the Cup, whether we were Montreal fans or not, we're attached to that fact.'' - Ottawa coach Bryan Murray, formerly a coach and GM for Anaheim.

[pm530]

Hockey – Hot Lines

NHL
Hot Lines


Wednesday, May 30

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Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks (-130, 5)

Ottawa optimists will look at Game 1’s loss as a missed opportunity after heading into the third period with a 2-1 lead. Realists realize the Senators could have been shut out just as easily.

They got a great break early in the game when a long-range effort hit something in front to flutter past Jean-Sebastian Giguere and probably wouldn’t have beaten the Ducks netminder if he hadn’t lost his stick. Sure, these things happen, but it’s not as though the Senators were buzzing with scoring chances or anything – they managed just 20 total shots and had only three in the first period.

Oddsmakers opened with Anaheim set as a -135 favorite for Game 2 (down to -120 now at some books), while the Sens are already talking like this is a must-win. You’d really like to believe them, too, but the problem is Anaheim beat them pretty handily with far from its best effort.

Ottawa’s problems started in its own net and moved out from there. Ray Emery wasn’t bad, but he isn’t doing his defense any favors with poor rebound control. Anaheim’s persistent forecheck was able to pin the Sens in deep to create scoring chances or draw a penalty a bunch of times after Emery kicked out the initial shot. He’s probably better off trying to freeze everything with Anaheim’s wingers making a beeline for Ottawa’s defensemen in the corners every time they gain the red line.

That said, the Sens did have the right idea trying to get under Chris Pronger’s skin in Game 1. He’ll be good for a handful of stupid penalties throughout the series and that’s where the Sens need to capitalize. The man advantage will be key for Ottawa because the Ducks are in control at even strength right now.

That’s probably not going to change in Anaheim with Randy Carlyle making the most of last change to match lines. Jason Spezza was completely invisible in Game 1, while Daniel Alfredsson and Dany Heatley weren’t much better – thanks to Samuel Pahlsson’s shutdown line that also happened to chip in the game-winner courtesy of Travis Moen. Pahlsson is one of the best defensive players in the league and his line is going to make life really difficult for Ottawa’s snipers on the road.

Pick: Ducks -130

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[pm530]

Hockey – Tips & Trends

NHL
Tips and trends


Wednesday, May 30

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Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks (8 PM ET)
Anaheim was the NHL's most-penalized team during the regular season and carried bad habits into the playoffs. The Ducks are averaging 18.9 penalty minutes per game, the fourth-highest total in the postseason. EDGE: SENATORS
Ottawa took advantage of two of seven power-play chances to raise its road power-play success rate to an astonishingly high 30.8 percent. EDGE: OVER
In the first two rounds against Minnesota and Vancouver, the Ducks killed 53 of 56 pwr plays. The numbers have worked against them in the seven games since with Detroit and Ottawa cashing in n 11 of 47 advantages. SLIGHT EDGE: SENATORS
Ottawa managed just 20 shots at Ducks goaltender Jean-Sebastien Giguere, four fewer than their lowest total in their previous 15 games. EDGE: DUCKS & UNDER
The Senators are 12-3 in their last 15 road games.
The Ducks are 6-1 in their last seven playoff games as a favorite.

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[pm530]

MLB
70% Situations


Wednesday, May 30

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MLB (Wednesday): Play Against MLB (NL) underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 a team that averages <=4.1 runs per game versus a starting pitcher whose ERA=4.20 to 5.20 and the bullpen converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities.
(36-7 last 5 seasons.) (83.7%) PLAY: Colorado -145

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[Dennis14072]

Thanks PM, Udog on vaca?

[Udog]

Hey, Dennis!

I'm alive, buddy! I'm just buried in work, on the road, all week and ol' PM is having to carry the whole load!

We'll have things back to normal on Saturday.

Good luck tonight!

[Dennis14072]

Was wondering, going to be in Vegas next week, couldn't play anything without reading all the great stuff you gentlemen bring to the table.