MLB "Game Of The Year" Tuesday Winner!!!

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Chado

[Kaptain]

GL with the Big One----kapt

[tash]

GL with the big play buddy !

[Spearit]

Chad- Thanx Buddy!
Don't let my last Saturdays butt kickin' steer ya wrong! I played on a hunch that teams would cover the 3 day series and got rocked solid for the day.
Call it a learning experiment- pricey learning experiment! But it does not effect the way I normally cap - so until then I will continue to wear my pants high and not let anyone see my soggy bottom!

Without a doubt as stated- I am a trendy guy mixed with the stats looking for a best bet. But allow me to explain further!

As far as trends and starting pitchers- Winning against powder puff teams that can't hit for the past 5 games gives little credence to facing a powder keg of loose cannons on the 6th game. That being said - I really try to see the reality of the ERA and who it is against that he blew the ERA against and who he bested. Was it at home or away day or night. Was he facing stiff competition from the other starter, etc.

Lets look at example--Today in the Pitt/SD game

Gorzy vs Wells. Wells got rocked earlier in 4 games (weight probs?) but Boomer has looked good the last 2 times out against Atl and the Cubs allowing only 1 run each game and given 7 and 8 quality innings.
Gorzy has been solid giving up 2 runs in each of the last 2 games and had looked solid thru 5 games. The last 2 games Gorzy (injured in last game) were for 5 and 6 innings. Previous was 7 innings for 3 games.

Pitt has been hot overall but I rate their Bull Pen strength low right now with little rest. The starters edge in my mind belongs to San Diego due to the quality number of innings that Wells can go versus the possibility that Gorzy goes 5-6 innings before his thumb is sore and the much battered relief corp must save the day!

(Then I go into the trends looking for extreme differences to bear out what I need to know if it is a play or not. I look at the Ump (not given at this time and the weather for extra clues.)

I look for news from different sources:
Gorzy left the last game with a bruised left thumb after deflecting a ball hit back up the middle, but X-rays were negative.

"I guess you could say it was scary, but I'm fine," Gorzelanny said. "It's just a pretty bad bruise."

Gorzelanny has faced the Padres once in his career, throwing five innings and giving up three runs in a 6-2 loss at San Diego on Sept. 22. Adrian Gonzalez, who leads the Padres with a .302 batting average, 12 home runs and 36 RBIs, hit a two-run shot off Gorzelanny in that contest.

I now want to see the trends:

For SD:
Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Padres are 8-1 in their last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Padres are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.
Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 games on Grass.
Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss.
Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Pirates are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. National League West.
Pirates are 4-9 in Gorzelanny's last 13 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Pirates are 2-7 in Gorzelanny's last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Pirates are 1-4 in Gorzelanny's last 5 home starts.
Pirates are 1-4 in Gorzelanny's last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Pirates are 1-4 in Gorzelanny's last 5 starts as a favorite.
Pirates are 1-4 in Gorzelanny's last 5 Tuesday starts.
Pirates are 1-5 in Gorzelanny's last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pirates are 1-5 in Gorzelanny's last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pirates are 1-6 in Gorzelanny's last 7 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.


For Pitt:
Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Padres are 2-6 in Wells' last 8 starts as an underdog.
Padres are 2-10 in Wells' last 12 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Padres are 1-5 in Wells' last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Padres are 0-5 in Wells' last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

I make a decision (SD) based on those facts and those facts alone and go on to the next game. Other cappers look at database and pull up there play on excel (lucky dogs). I read up on systems that pop up on sights and I give sightings showing them when I can find them. I might also look for reverse angle plays or smart money plays! So I am a little versatile in my capping!

[Chado1]

Sounds good pal....appreciate your insights!!!

[Spark]

Good Luck buddy .. I like the play

[Gookis]

Go get your GOY!!!

[jcindaville]

BOL Chado

[GrandPa]

GL Chado. But bettor beware on the Kitties' pen, as they helped me hit a miracle over at the Trop last night, and lost me a small fortune last week with an implosion. Need to get 8+ out of Bondy and hope Los Tigres can get a nice lead.

I'll be pullin for ya

[joshuab1]

best of luck buddy...

[jt4545]

good luck chado1

[CarlinsComedy]

Best of Luck Mr Chado! Am from Det area, and what i like
if one is taking Det tonight is Bonderman`s LAST start.....
that was the commanding-Bonderman, shut down pretty
good and pretty hot LAA lineup.

Problem with Tigers right now, as we see is mostly the
`Pen, if Bonderman can go 8 inn or so they should be fine
but, right now, it is hard to trust that bullpen with lead,
especially a small lead.

In 5 career starts vs Tampa, Bonderman is 3-1 w/a 1.96
ERA and he has surrendered just 5 runs in 22+ inn`s at
Trop. Field. Tampa `pen not much either. Ordonez-Guillen `n
Thames have hit Fossum pretty good in past.
I`ll be on Det too, Good Luck w/ yer GOY buddy!

[drugstuntman]

good luck chado - tough to play on a team with a losing streak, but vegas put the line at -180 for a reason !!!!

[PhilJr]

GL Chado

[TMAC951]

Gl on the BIG one buddy!