Tuesday Trends and Indexes 05/22

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Tuesday, May 22

Good Luck on day #142 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Tuesday

-- Webb-Cook matchup in Arizona-Colorado game was 4th time each starting pitcher faced that opponent this season, in roughly seven weeks. Weird scheduling.

-- Figure skater Kristi Yamaguchi was ballgirl at the Giants-Astros game Monday, down the rightfield line; she seemed content that not many balls came her way.

-- Ryan Klesko hit one in McCovey Cove leading off eighth inning, the 10th non-Bonds (33) homer hit in water there.

-- Nationals led 6-0 in second inning at Cincinnati, but lost 8-7, not the ideal start to a road trip for a bad team.

-- Matt Chico is on hill for Nationals Tuesday; home team is 9-0 in his starts so far this season.

-- Prince Fielder hit two homers in LA Monday; tale of tape said they went combined distance of exactly 900 feet.

[pm530]

Tuesday's list of 13: Nobody asked me, but.............

13) NBA Draft Lottery is Tuesday night; chances are it'll be a lot more interesting than any of the Eastern Conference tilts in playoffs. Grizzlies have the best chance of grabbing the #1 pick in draft, Celtics second-best chance.

12) Speaking of Eastern Conference playoffs, Cavaliers lost a chance to steal Game 1 when they kicked ball to Marshall for a game-winning trey in last 0:10. In these playoffs, Marshall is 8-21 from arc, but was 6-10 in last game of Nets series, so he is 2-10 in all other games, and had taken zero treys Monday night, before his fateful miss. Good coaching by Detroit, to get ball in hands of a very cold shooter for the last shot.

11) Former Vikings coach Bud Grant turned 80 this week; he also played in the NBA, for Minneapolis Lakers, and was a head coach in CFL. My hands get cold just thinking of him, as he wouldn't allow heaters on sidelines at Viking games.

10) Kudos to Jeff Farnsworth for speaking his mind on this whole Clemens situation. Media members almost seem afraid of Clemens, like he's a big bully or something. What he does isn't conducive to team chemistry, I don't care how many Cy Young awards he has won in his career. Simple as that.

9) Kentucky paid UMass $50,000 to get out of a game for this November in Boston; problem is, UMass had sold 7,000 tix to this game, and they'll have to refund all the money, so they still stand to lose out on about $250,000. UMass coach Ford is a UK alum, and they still stiffed him. Nice.

8) Billy Gillespie doesn't recruit Boston, but he does recruit in Texas, so Kentucky didn't buy their way out of game for this winter in Houston. On the plus side for UMass is fact that Gillespie must think UMass has shot to beat Kentucky, if he weaseled his way out of the game.

7) Tony Armas Sr holds distinction of having lowest batting average (.218) of anyone who knocked in 100+ runs during that season. He did so in 1983.

6) Chicago Blackhawks have won one playoff game in last 10 years; once a power, Hawks are now irrelevant in the NHL, a part of problem league has, since teams in their big markets (Chicago, Philly, Boston, Rangers) haven't been good lately.

5) 39 pro golfers have already earned $1M+ this season. #125 on the money list is currently Cameron Beckman, who earned $261,923 so far this year, which seems like a lot of cash, until you realize it is the Mendoza Line for making the cut for '08.

4) Why does a baseball team need a captain? Someone has to explain this to me. Leaders emerge on any team, whether they are anointed by management or not; it seems almost silly for a baseball team to name a captain. What does he do?

3) Another thing I need help with; Why is the Baseball Hall of Fame game on a Monday afternoon in May? I didn't even know it happened until I saw the boxscore, and was trying to figure out who the hell all these guys I had never heard of were. Shouldn't the game be the day after the inductions?

2) Quote of the Day:
"When you are discussing a successful coach, you are not necessarily drawing the profile of an entirely healthy person."
Bruce Ogilvie, sports psychologist

1) I enjoy interleague play, but it isn't enough the way they do it and it screws up the scheduling. Later this week, we are going to present our plan to re-engineer the major leagues, as we do every year, at about this time. No one listens, but we'll present it anyway. I think it has some merit.

[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Tuesday, May 22

Hot Pitchers
-- Phillies won four in row, six of last seven Hamels starts.
-- Sosa is 3-0, 2.25 in three starts for the Mets.
-- Cardinals are 5-1 with Wainwright if they score 3+ runs.
-- Hernandez is 1-0, 2.70 in three starts vs Colorado this year.
-- Peavy is 2-1, 1.54 in his last five starts.
-- Wolf is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts. Milwaukee won Sheets last four starts, scoring 33 runs.
-- Oswalt is 3-0, 1.93 in his last four starts. Lincecum is 1-0, 2.57 in his last couple starts.

-- Detroit is 7-0 in Maroth starts, but he missed last outing with stomach virus. Lackey is 4-1, 2.34 in his last five starts.
-- Mussina is 2-1, 3.92 in three starts since coming off DL.
-- Orioles are 5-1 in Cabrera home starts this season. Burnett is
1-0, 1.69 in pair of starts vs Baltimore this year.
-- Washburn is 3-2, 2.97 in his last five starts. Devil Rays are 4-1 in last five Kazmir starts.
-- Santana has 2.50 RA in his last three starts, but Twins scored three or less runs in each of his last five outings.
-- Carmona is 5-0, 1.63 in his last five starts. Perez is 0-1, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Danks is 2-1, 2.18 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Olsen is 0-2, 4.84 in his last three starts.
-- Saarloos is making first '07 start; he is 0-3 this season, tossing 17.2 IP in 20 appearances- he's made 69 career starts, with mark of 27-28, 4.80. Home side is 9-0 in Chico starts this season.
-- Davies is 0-0, 4.82 in three home starts; Brave bullpen won all three of those games.
-- Duke is 0-2, 4.58 in his last three starts.
-- Fogg is 0-4, 5.92 in his last four starts.
-- Cubs lost four of Hill's last five starts.

-- Tavarez is 1-2, 5.31 in four road starts this season.
-- Loe is 0-3, 8.89 in his last five starts.
-- Lewis makes big league debut for A's; he was 5-1, 2.31 in eight starts in AAA; PCL hitters batted .203 against him.

Totals
-- Under is 5-1 in Phillies' last six games.
-- Over is 7-1 in last eight Cincinnati home games.
-- Over is 5-1 in last six Davies starts.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Duke starts.
-- Over is 6-1 in Fogg's last seven starts.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Peavy starts.
-- Over is 14-3-1 in last 18 games at Dodger Stadium.
-- Under is 4-1 in Giants' last five games.

-- Four of last five Maroth starts went over the total.
-- Under is 16-4-1 in Boston road games.
-- Under is 4-1 in last five Burnett starts.
-- Under is 4-1 in Washburn's last five starts.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in Rangers' last dozen home games.
-- Over is 8-4 in Cleveland's last dozen home games
-- Under is 6-1 in Danks starts this season.


Hot Teams
-- Florida won five of its last six games. Phillies are 8-3 in last 11 games, but 1-5 in last six road series openers.
-- Mets are 14-5 on the road this season.
-- Arizona won four of its last five games.
-- Padres won six of their last eight home games.

-- Detroit won its last three games, scoring 28 runs. Angels won last five games, allowing total of seven runs.
-- Red Sox won fourteen of their last nineteen games.
-- Orioles won five of their last seven home games.
-- White Sox are 10-5 in their last fifteen games.
-- Rangers won three of their last four games, scoring 29 runs in last two contests.
-- Indians won seven of their last nine games. Royals won six of their last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Reds lost fourteen of their last nineteen games. Nationals lost their last nine road games, outscored 45-26.
-- Braves lost four of their last five games.
-- Cardinals lost last five games, allowing 42 runs. Pirates lost eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Colorado lost eleven of its last sixteen road games.
-- Cubs lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Dodgers lost their last four games, outscored 28-8. Brewers are 3-6 in their last nine games.
-- Astros lost four of their last five games. Giants are 5-8 in last thirteen games, 2-3 in last five at home.

-- Bronx Bombers lost seven of their last eleven games, but won their last two.
-- Toronto lost eight of its last nine away games.
-- Twins lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Oakland is 4-6 in its last ten games, has no healthy closer.
-- Mariners lost five of their last six games. Devil Rays are 1-5 in last six series openers played at Tropicana Field.

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Tuesday, May 22

Utah has now lost 17 in row at Alamo; they trailed 54-36 at half in Game 1, as Spurs shot 54% from floor, went 27-40 from line as Jazz made 23-27 from line. Oberto outscored Okur 14-10 in Game 1; if that repeats itself, this will be short series. Okur was 3-15 in first game. Jazz is 2-4 on road in playoffs; unless they can win at least once in this building, Spurs go to the Finals.

[pm530]

Hockey – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Tuesday, May 22

Anaheim can wrap series on home ice, head to Final with a win here; they split first two games of series in this building, have pair of OT games in series. Over last three games, Ducks won 61.5% of faceoffs in offensive zone; they tied Game 5 with 0:48 left in game, won in it OT, as Wings failed to score for second game in row in third period. Detroit lost last two games, despite outshooting Anaheim by 27 (76-49).

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Tuesday, May 22

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Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins (7:05 PM EST)
Philadelphia's Cole Hamels has an unblemished 3-0 record and 3.07 ERA in four road starts this season. EDGE: PHILLIES
Hamels has pitched well against Florida in his career, posting a 2-1 record and 3.00 ERA in four starts. He's struck out 20 Marlins' batters in 18 innings of work. EDGE: PHILLIES
Marlins left-hander Scott Olsen is 2-4 with a 5.51 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies, but is 1-0 this year against them with a 6-4 victory on April 8. SLIGHT EDGE: MARLINS
The OVER is 5-0 in the Marlins last five home games versus a left-handed starter.



Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (7:05 PM ET)
Blue Jays starter A.J. Burnett is coming off a brilliant 2-1 victory over the Orioles last time out, pitching a complete game and allowing just one run and three hits while striking out a season-high 10 batters. He's 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA in three career starts against Balitmore. BIG EDGE: BLUE JAYS
Burnett has encountered plenty of problems on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA in five starts. EDGE: ORIOLES
Baltimore's Daniel Cabrera was on the losing end of Burnett's gem on May 15, throwing eight innings of two-run ball and allowing just three hits. SLIGHT EDGE: ORIOLES
Cabrera is 3-1 with a 4.38 ERA in six starts at Camden Yards this season. EDGE: ORIOLES
The Blue Jays are 2-10 in their last 12 games versus a right-handed starter.



Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (7:05 PM ET)
Los Angeles hurler John Lackey is a perfect 5-0 with a 3.47 ERA in seven career starts against Detroit. EDGE: ANGELS
Lackey's been impressive on the road this season, tallying a 3-2 record with a 2.70 ERA in five starts. EDGE: ANGELS
Despite carrying a 5.40 ERA in his career against Los Angeles, Detroit's Mike Maroth is 4-2 against them in his career. He lasted just 4 2/3 innings on April 23 against the Angels, as the Tigers picked up a 9-5 road victory. EDGE: TIGERS & OVER
The OVER is 7-2 in Maroth's last nine starts versus the Angels.



Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (7:05 PM ET)
Red Sox right-hander Julian Tavarez is 2-1 with a 5.73 ERA in 20 career appearances (three starts) against the Yankees. He picked up a 7-4 victory at Yankee Stadium on April 29, limiting the Bronx Bombers to three runs and three hits over five innings. EDGE: RED SOX & OVER
New York starter Mike Mussina is an even 1-1 at home this season in two outings, even though he's allowed eight runs and 11 hits in just 10 innings of work. EDGE: RED SOX & OVER
Mussina has enjoyed career success against Boston, posting a 19-14 record and 3.47 ERA in 50 career starts. EDGE: YANKEES
The Yankees are 4-1 in Mussina's last five starts versus the Red Sox.



New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (7:35 PM ET)
Mets right-hander Jorge Sosa has bounced back from a disappointing 2006 campaign in a big way. The 30-year-old from Santa Domingo, Dominican Republic is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts. EDGE: METS
Atlanta starter Kyle Davies struck out a season-high eight batters against New York during his first start of the season on April 8. He's 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against them. EDGE: BRAVES
Davies has struggled in keeping runners off the base paths this season, allowing 39 hits and issuing 22 free passes in 38 1/3 innings. EDGE: OVER
The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta.



Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (8:05 PM ET)
Minnesota ace Johan Santana is an even 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA in seven career starts against Texas. EDGE: RANGERS
MLB experts expect a masterful performance from Santana, after losing back-to-back starts to Detroit and Cleveland. He allowed just four earned runs in those two starts while striking out 17 batters in 13 innings. EDGE: TWINS
Texas starter Kameron Loe is a perfect 2-0 against Minnesota in his career and has yet to allow a run in 14 1/3 innings against them. BIG EDGE: RANGERS
The UNDER is 8-2 in Santana's last 10 starts versus the American League West.



Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (10:05 PM ET)
Chicago's Rich Hill has lost consecutive games for the first time this season and is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA against San Diego in his career. EDGE: PADRES
Hill has allowed nine runs and 11 hits in his last 11 innings on the road, after allowing just three earned runs in his first three starts this season away from Wrigley Field. SLIGHT EDGE: PADRES
Padres right-hander Jake Peavy is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in five home starts this season and the Padres have won three straight games with their ace on the mound. EDGE: PADRES
The UNDER is 6-1-2 in Peavy's last nine home starts.



Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)
Brewers starter Ben Sheets was brilliant on Opening Day against the Dodgers, allowing just one run and two hits in a complete game 7-1 victory at Miller Park. EDGE: BREWERS
Sheets is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four road starts this season, including back-to-back victories against New York and Philadelphia. SLIGHT EDGE: BREWERS & OVER
Los Angeles left-hander Randy Wolf is 4-2 with a 4.29 ERA in six home starts this season and has tallied consecutive victories against Cincinnati and St. Louis. EDGE: DODGERS
The OVER is 7-1 in Wolf's last eight starts overall.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Tips and Trends

NBA
Tips and trends


Tuesday, May 22

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#4 Utah Jazz at #2 San Antonio Spurs
Game 2 - Tuesday, May 22nd, 9 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)

The biggest break-out performer in the playoffs continues to be Utah point guard Deron Williams. The second-year player out of Illinois scored 18 of his game-high 34 points in the fourth quarter of Sunday's Game 1 loss and added nine assists and seven rebounds. He made 13-of-23 shots from the field after a poor 1-of-11 performance in last Tuesday's clinching Game 5 win over Golden State. While San Antonio's Tony Parker scored 21 points, Williams is a very physical guard and will be a difficult matchup for him thoughout the rest of the series. EDGE: JAZZ
Utah's frontcourt struggled against San Antonio in Game 1, as Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur combined to make just 10-of-32 shots from the field (31 percent). Boozer only had one basket in the first half and will continue to have a tough time inside against Tim Duncan, who has totaled at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in the last 10 games for the Spurs. BIG EDGE: SPURS
Utah has now lost its last 17 games in San Antonio. BIG EDGE: SPURS
San Antonio is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games.
San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Utah is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games.
Utah is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 road games.
UNDER is 11-4 in San Antonio's last 15 games.


Head-to-Head Recaps

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS (HOME team in CAPS)

RESULTS

San Antonio leads 1-0 SU & ATS
OVER 1-0

5/20/07 - Game 1 - SAN ANTONIO 108, Utah 100 (ATS winner: SA -6.5 | OVER 186.5)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: The Jazz outplayed the Spurs in the second half, but it wasn't nearly enough to overcome a poor second quarter. Utah was outscored 31-16 in the second to enter halftime down, 54-36. The Spurs could not contain Deron Williams in the fourth though, when the second-year point guard scored 18 of his game-high 34 points. The heroics of Williams was almost enough to cover the spread for Jazz backers, but San Antonio's Michael Finley went 8-of-8 from the free-throw line to prevent that from happening. The 118 points scored between both teams after the break - including 68 in the fourth quarter alone - were more than enough to force an easy OVER.

SCHEDULE

5/22/07 - Game 2 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
5/26/07 - Game 3 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ABC | 8:30 PM ET)
5/28/07 - Game 4 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
5/30/07 - Game 5 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
6/1/07 - Game 6 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
6/3/07 - Game 7 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ABC | 8:30 PM ET)

REGULAR-SEASON RESULTS

Series tied 2-2 SU & ATS
OVER/UNDER 2-2

3/30/07 - SAN ANTONIO 102, Utah 93 (ATS winner: SA -8 | OVER 185)
1/31/07 - UTAH 97, San Antonio 93 (ATS winner: Utah +5 | OVER 185.5)
12/28/06 - SAN ANTONIO 106, Utah 83 (ATS winner: SA -7.5 | UNDER 193.5)
11/29/06 - UTAH 83, San Antonio 75 (ATS winner: Utah +1 | UNDER 190.5)

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECAP: The home team won and covered each meeting during the regular season, with the Jazz also winning straight-up twice despite being an underdog in every game. It's important to note that the Jazz beat the Spurs in the first meeting when they were on fire to start the season and then were handled rather easily in the last one when they were struggling down the stretch. This could definitely be another series where home court plays an important factor in who advances though San Antonio is a far superior road team, proving that once again vs. Phoenix.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet


Tuesday, May 22

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UTAH (59 - 36) at SAN ANTONIO (67 - 27) - 5/22/2007, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 51-42 ATS (+4.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 88-58 ATS (+24.2 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 186-146 ATS (+25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-4 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Hockey – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


Tuesday, May 22

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DETROIT (60-24-0-15, 135 pts.) at ANAHEIM (59-23-0-15, 133 pts.) - 5/22/2007, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 53-61 ATS (-40.4 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 34-19 ATS (+2.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 54-31 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 35-17 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 7-6 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 7-6-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.1 Units)

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet


Tuesday, May 22

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Western Conference Playoffs
Conference Finals, Game Two
San Antonio Leads, 1-0
TV: ESPN
Utah at San Antonio, 9:05 EST

Utah:
9-21 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points
20-6 Under when trailing in a playoff series

San Antonio:
18-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points
14-4 Under off BB games scoring 105+ points

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[pm530]

Hockey – Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet


Tuesday, May 22

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Western Conference Playoffs
Conference Finals, Game Six
Anaheim Leads, 3-2
TV: VER
Detroit at Anaheim, 9:05 EST

Detroit:
17-3 SU away off an overtime loss
18-3 SU revenging a loss scoring 1 or 0 goals

Anaheim:
6-1 Under when leading in a playoff series
31-17 Under vs. Detroit

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[Dennis14072]

Thanks PM, really like you posting so early, helps me get a head start on the night. Don't tell the boss.

[Udog]

Dennis,

You're the best! PM is going to get a big kick out this when he wakes up! Good luck today, buddy!

It's funny. When this day shift/night shift method that PM and I use was developing, we talked about how it could be very helpful to you. I'm tickled it is!

I wish our sources could get it all ready the night before!

[Dennis14072]

It's great stuff Udog, glad you guys do this for us, super information. Thanks again!
By the by, I'm the night boss, but when we're shorthanded, I'll run one of the machines. Great reading at 4am...