Sunday Trends and Indexes 05/20

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, May 20

Good Luck on day #140 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

-- NBA gets what they deserve, with no Game 7's in second round. Suns-Spurs Game 7 would have been huge.

-- Red Sox have now scored 55 runs in winning Matsuzaka's last six starts, and average of 9.2 runs per game.

-- Toronto's Marcum has made two starts, and hasn't given up a hit in first four innings of either one.

-- In Cust We Trust: Oakland's new DH has eight homers in 2007, and he's only been in big leagues for two weeks.

-- Does Roger Clemens have a no-trade clause? What if Bronx falls out of contention and wants to trade him at the July 31 deadline? Might he still wind up in Houston?

-- NL teams were 8-7 in interleague play Saturday, have now won 13 of 28 games. Over was 5-3 in AL parks (11-3 for the last two days), 4-3 in NL parks (6-6-2 for two days).

[pm530]

Sunday's Den: Quotes for a soggy Sunday...........

13) "Self-confidence is first requisite to great undertakings." Samuel Johnson (1709-1784)

12) "Just when you think you know the answers, I change the questions." Rowdy Roddy Piper

11) "The less satisfaction we derive from being ourselves, the greater is our desire to be like others." Eric Hoffer, 1951

10) "A cluttered mind is little better than an empty one." Anonymous

9) "People in Kansas, like most Americans, have a word for a politician who won't sell his soul to gain, hold power-- loser." George B. Pyle, 1997

8) "Tact is art of making a point without making an enemy" Anonymous

7) "The neurotic builds castles in the air, the psychotic lives in them, and the psychiatrist collects the rent." Anonymous

6) "Women belong to the highest bidder. Power is what they like-- it is the greatest of all aphrodisiacs." Napoleon

5) "In battle, the greatest danger always threatens those who show the greatest fear." Catiline (108-62 B.C.)

4) "If I had only a little humility, I'd be perfect." Ted Turner

3) "Comedy is tragedy that happens to other people."
Angela Carter, 1991

2) "There is no such thing as a sure thing, that's why they call it gambling." Oscar Madison, The Odd Couple

1) "Life is 10% what happens to me and 90% how I react to it." Anonymous

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Sunday, May 20

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Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians (1:05 PM ET)
Cincinnati starter Aaron Harang is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA in five career starts against Cleveland. BIG EDGE: REDS
Harang enters this afternoon off his best start of the year, pitching nine innings of one-run ball, as the Reds picked up a 2-1 extra-innings road victory against San Diego on May 15. EDGE: REDS
Indians right-hander Paul Byrd has a 3-1 career record with an impressive 2.91 ERA in 13 career appearances (six starts) against the Reds. EDGE: INDIANS
Byrd surrendered a season-high five earned runs in his last starts, which the Indians won 15-7 over Minnesota. EDGE: OVER



St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers (1:05 PM ET)
St. Louis starter Brad Thompson will make his third start of the season this afternoon, after starting the season in the bullpen. He picked up his first win of the season last time out, an 8-4 road victory over Los Angeles. SLIGHT EDGE: CARDINALS
Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander is 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA in four home starts this season. He lasted just three innings in his last start at Comerica Park, allowing five runs (three earned) and eight hits in a 11-3 loss to Minnesota. SLIGHT EDGE: TIGERS



Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 PM ET)
Arizona veteran left-hander Randy Johnson picked up his first victory of the season last time out, as the Diamondbacks dropped the Rockies 3-0. He tossed six innings of shutout ball and allowed just one hit while striking out nine. EDGE: D-BACKS
Johnson is 8-5 with an incredible 2.16 ERA in 13 career starts against Pittsburgh. BIG EDGE: D-BACKS
Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in four home starts this season. EDGE: D-BACKS



Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers (2:05 PM ET)
Minnesota's Ramon Ortiz is 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA in five road starts this season. The Twins have lost three straight games with Ortiz on the mound, being outscored 27-14 during that span. EDGE: BREWERS
Ortiz is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Milwaukee in his career. SLIGHT EDGE: TWINS & OVER
Brewers right-hander Claudio Vargas is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four home outings this season. He's struck out 21 batters and walked just seven in 20 innings at Miller Park. EDGE: BREWERS



Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM ET)
White Sox right-hander Jose Contreras has an even 2-2 record despite having a dynamite 1.91 ERA on the road this season. He tossed a 3-0 shutout victory in his last road start, allowing just five hits and striking out four. EDGE: WHITE SOX & UNDER
Contreras has allowed 11 runs and 18 hits in 20 2/3 career innings against the Cubs. EDGE: OVER
Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano looks to even his home record this afternoon, as he's 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in four home starts in 2007. EDGE: WHITE SOX
Zambrano is 4-1 with a 4.31 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts) against the White Sox. SLIGHT EDGE: CUBS



Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels (3:35 PM ET)
Dodgers right-hander Derek Lowe is 5-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 25 career outings (nine starts) in his career against the Angels. EDGE: DODGERS
Lowe is 32-33 with a 4.16 ERA in 159 career daytime appearances. His ERA is a half-run lower in his 316 nighttime outings. SLIGHT EDGE: ANGELS & OVER
Angels starter Kelvim Escobar has been brilliant at Anaheim Stadium, posting a 3-1 record and 2.18 ERA in five starts. BIG EDGE: ANGELS



San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners (4:05 PM ET)
San Diego starter Justin Germano has started off the 2007 season in grand fashion, going 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his first two starts. EDGE: PADRES
Even with his great start this season, Germano is just 2-3 with an inflated 5.71 career ERA. EDGE: MARINERS
Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez was touched up for seven runs and seven hits in his only career start against the Padres. EDGE: OVER



San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics (4:05 PM ET)
San Francisco's Matt Morris is 2-1 with a 4.56 ERA in four road starts this season. He's also 1-0 with a 5.14 ERA in one career start against Oakland. SLIGHT EDGE: GIANTS & OVER
The Giants have lost two consecutive games with Morris on the mound, giving up four home runs in the process. EDGE: A'S
Athletics left-hander Joe Kennedy hasn't picked up a home victory in four appearances at home this season, even though he's posted a 2.89 ERA. SLIGHT EDGE: A'S & UNDER
Kennedy is 4-2 with a 5.36 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco. SLIGHT EDGE: A'S & OVER

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Tips and Trends

NBA
Tips and trends


Sunday, May 20

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#4 Utah Jazz at #2 San Antonio Spurs
Game 1 - Sunday, May 20th, 3:30 p.m. Eastern (ABC)

There's no doubt that the Spurs are the most polished, experienced team in the playoffs. The question is, will there be a letdown here knowing they just knocked out their top competition? San Antonio certainly seems to be peaking at the right time and eyeing a fourth NBA title at this point. While the Jazz have never lost to the Spurs in a playoff series (3-0), it's important to note those were in the days of Stockton and Malone, who owned a huge advantage in experience. This time around, the tables have been turned in San Antonio's favor. This is Utah's first trip to the Western Conference Finals since 1998. EDGE: SPURS

Utah faced two very different opponents in the first two rounds of the playoffs - a defensive-minded halfcourt team in the Rockets followed by the run-and-gun style of the Warriors. The Jazz have been able to adapt well to both styles, proving they are a very good all-around team. The problem is, the Spurs have done exactly the same thing against arguably better competition. SLIGHT EDGE: SPURS

The Jazz may be the only team in the playoffs with the size and depth to overpower San Antonio's Tim Duncan inside. Carlos Boozer has enjoyed a fantastic postseason so far for Utah and will need to make Duncan work on the defensive end. In addition, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko and emerging rookie Paul Millsap all pose size problems for the Spurs. Millsap - who went undrafted out of Malone's alma mater Louisiana Tech - was especially effective against Golden State - averaging 7.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. EDGE: JAZZ

San Antonio is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
Utah is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
Utah is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 road games.
UNDER is 11-3 in San Antonio's last 14 games.

Head-to-Head Recaps

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS (HOME team in CAPS)

SCHEDULE

5/20/07 - Game 1 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)
5/22/07 - Game 2 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
5/26/07 - Game 3 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ABC | 8:30 PM ET)
5/28/07 - Game 4 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
5/30/07 - Game 5 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
6/1/07 - Game 6 - San Antonio Spurs at UTAH JAZZ (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
6/3/07 - Game 7 - Utah Jazz at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (ABC | 8:30 PM ET)

REGULAR-SEASON RESULTS

Series tied 2-2 SU & ATS
OVER/UNDER 2-2

3/30/07 - SAN ANTONIO 102, Utah 93 (ATS winner: SA -8 | OVER 185)
1/31/07 - UTAH 97, San Antonio 93 (ATS winner: Utah +5 | OVER 185.5)
12/28/06 - SAN ANTONIO 106, Utah 83 (ATS winner: SA -7.5 | UNDER 193.5)
11/29/06 - UTAH 83, San Antonio 75 (ATS winner: Utah +1 | UNDER 190.5)

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECAP: The home team won and covered each meeting during the regular season, with the Jazz also winning straight-up twice despite being an underdog in every game. It's important to note that the Jazz beat the Spurs in the first meeting when they were on fire to start the season and then were handled rather easily in the last one when they were struggling down the stretch. This could definitely be another series where home court plays an important factor in who advances though San Antonio is a far superior road team, proving that once again vs. Phoenix.

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[pm530]

Hockey – Tips & Trends

NHL
Tips and trends


Sunday, May 20

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Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings (NBC | 3 PM ET)
The Red Wings beat San Jose and Calgary by a combined score of 9-2 in their previous Game 5s and went on to eliminate both teams in the following game. EDGE: RED WINGS
Anaheim should get a boost Sunday with the return of star defensemen Chris Pronger, who leads the team with 12 postseason points. EDGE: DUCKS
The favorite is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
The Ducks are 4-19-1 in the last 24 meetings in Detroit.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Hot Lines

NBA
Hot Lines


Sunday, May 20

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Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs (-6 ½, 185 ½)

Oddsmakers must not think too highly of the Jazz or they just really like the Spurs. Some books opened with San Antonio as 7 ½-point favorites for the first game of the Western Conference finals.

“Everybody keeps telling us we’re not going to win, and we just keep winning,” Utah point guard Deron Williams told the Deseret Morning News. “That’s our main focus. We’re happy that we’re in the conference finals, but we think we can go further.”

The Jazz showed they could play up-tempo or crawl ball in their first two playoff series. They overcame a grinding Houston Rockets team in the first round and then dispatched the speedy Golden State Warriors in five games.

The Spurs should be a little tired since they are only two days removed from their last game against the Phoenix Suns.

Pick: Jazz +6 ½

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[pm530]

Hockey – Hot Lines

NHL
Hot Lines


Sunday, May 20

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Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings (-130, 4 ½)

There were two big differences between Thursday night’s Game 4 and the first three games in the series.

First, the Wings finally outshot the Ducks. Detroit held a 39-23 advantage in shots on goal but failed to pull out the win. Anaheim won 5-3 as a -130 home favorite to level the series at two games apiece. The Ducks outshot the Wings 94-74 through the first three games.

Second, Anaheim finally scored on the power play in this series, snapping an 0-for-32 streak with the man advantage that dates back to Game 3 of their series with the Vancouver Canucks.

What does this all mean? The Ducks finally have some momentum heading to Detroit, and may have finally solved the riddle that is Dominik Hasek. The Czech goalie wasn’t his usual self on Thursday, allowing four goals on just 22 shots. His .818 save percentage was his third-worst performance in 71 regular season and playoff games this season.

Pick: Ducks +120

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet


Sunday, May 20

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UTAH (59 - 35) at SAN ANTONIO (66 - 27) - 5/20/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 50-42 ATS (+3.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 185-146 ATS (+24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-4 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Hockey – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


Sunday, May 20

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ANAHEIM (58-23-0-15, 131 pts.) at DETROIT (60-24-0-14, 134 pts.) - 5/20/2007, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 10-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
DETROIT is 54-30 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 35-16 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 29-20 ATS (+52.0 Units) in road games on Sunday games since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 33-19 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 7-5 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 7-5-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.1 Units)

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Sunday, May 20

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 4) at NEW YORK (3 - 7) - 5/20/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (6 - 4) at AUSTIN (3 - 7) - 5/20/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games where the total is between 95 and 99.5 points since 1996.
AUSTIN is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 3-2 against the spread versus AUSTIN over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 3-2 straight up against AUSTIN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet


Sunday, May 20th

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Western Conference Playoffs
Conference Finals, Game One
Series Tied, 0-0
TV: ABC
Utah at San Antonio, 3:30 EST

Utah:
21-5 ATS Away after scoring 100+ points 4 straight games
14-3 Under in Game 1's

San Antonio:
28-18 Under as a home favorite
35-18 Under after a combined score of 215+ points

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[pm530]

Hockey – Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet


Sunday, May 20

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Western Conference Playoffs
Finals, Game Five
Series Tied, 2-2
TV: NBC
Detroit at Anaheim, 3:05 EST

Anaheim:
5-21 SU at Detroit
14-3 Under Away off a home game

Detroit:
12-2 SU revenging a loss of 2 goals
30-17 Under vs. Anaheim

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[pm530]

Hockey – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Sunday, May 20

Anaheim scored 4,5 goals in two series wins, 1,0 in two losses; Detroit outshot Ducks 31-15 in first two periods of Game 5, but game was tied, then Anaheim scored twice in third period to get even in series, 2-2. Home side is 6-2 in season series, but 2-2 in this series. Ducks were 2-5 on power play in Game 4, after 0-16 showing in first three games; they won 65.6% of faceoffs in the offensive zone, over last two games.

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Sunday, May 20th

National League

Arizona at Pittsburgh, 1:35 EST
Randy Johnson (L) vs. Paul Maholm (L)
Johnson: Ari 8-0 Away with a money line of -100 to -125
Maholm: 11-2 Over when the total is 7 to 8.5


Interleague

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:05 EST
Aaron Harang (R) vs. Paul Byrd (R)
Harang: 8-0 Under in IL play
Byrd: Cle 13-4 in day games

St. Louis at Detroit, 1:05 EST
Brad Thompson (R) vs. Justin Verlander (R)
Thompson: Stl 1-6 at Detroit
Verlander: Det 11-2 at home vs. righties

Baltimore at Washington, 1:35 EST
Erik Bedard (L) vs. Micah Bowie (L)
Bedard: 8-0 Under as a road favorite of -110 or higher
Bowie: Wash 10-0 Under as a home underdog of +150 to +175

Toronto at Philadelphia, 1:35 EST
Jwaaw Litsch (R) vs. Adam Eaton (R)
Litsch: Tor 11-3 Over when the total is 8.5 to 10
Eaton: 11-0 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175

Florida at Tampa Bay, 1:40 EST
Sergio Mitre (R) vs. James Shields (R)
Mitre: 7-0 Under Away when the total is 9 to 9.5
Shields: n/a

Atlanta at Boston, 2:05 EST
Tim Hudson (R) vs. Kason Gabbard (L)
Hudson: 0-7 TSR in Interleague Play
Gabbard: Bos 17-3 vs. National League

Minnesota at Milwaukee, 2:05 EST
Ramon Ortiz (R) vs. Claudio Vargas (R)
Ortiz: Min 18-2 vs. National League
Vargas: 13-4 TSR in day games

Texas at Houston, 2:05 EST
Brandon McCarthy (R) vs. Woody Williams (R)
McCarthy: 11-1 Under as an underdog
Williams: Hou 7-1 Under as a home favorite of -125 to -175

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 EST
Jose Contreras (R) vs. Carlos Zambrano (R)
Contreras: 15-4 Under as an underdog
Zambrano: 13-2 TSR after giving up 1 or less ER last outing

Kansas City at Colorado, 3:05 EST
Brian Bannister (R) vs. Jason Hirsh (R)
Bannister: KC 12-4 Under as an underdog of +125 to +175
Hirsh: Col 12-4 Under at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

LA Dodgers at LA Angels, 3:35 EST
Derek Lowe (R) vs. Kelvim Escobar (R)
Lowe: LAD 1-19 Away vs. American League
Escobar: LAA 12-3 Under in day games

San Diego at Seattle, 4:05 EST
Justin Germano (R) vs. Felix Hernandez (R)
Germano: SD 9-5 as a road underdog of +150 to +175
Hernandez: 3-8 TSR as a favorite of -150 or more

San Francisco at Oakland, 4:05 EST
Matt Morris (R) vs. Joe Kennedy (L)
Morris: 6-0 TSR in IL Play
Kennedy: Oak 18-5 Under vs. righties

NY Yankees at NY Mets, 8:05 EST
Tyler Clippard (R) vs. John Maine (R)
Clippard: NYY 16-3 Over as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Maine: 18-5 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10

** (TC) Denotes Time Change