Tuesday Trends and Indexes 05/15

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Trends and Indexes
Tuesday, May 15

Good Luck on day #135 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Tuesday

-- Suns, Spurs played terrific game Monday, with Phoenix coming from behind to win Game 4, in game marred by near-fracas with 0:18.2 left in game, after hard foul on Nash by Robert Horry. Order was quickly restored before anything stupid happened that could have affected rest of series.

-- Game 5 is Wednesday night in Phoenix; NBA needs this series to be great, because the other ones aren't.

-- Greg Maddux threw a 96-pitch complete game that took a whole 2:08 to finish. Vendors must hate Maddux.

-- Texas is in deep trouble; Millwood aggravated hamstring injury in second inning off the DL. Texas lost 7-2 to Angels.

-- Ryan Howard is on DL with a strained quad. He was off to bad start, hitting .204 this season. Phillies scored six in bottom of 8th Monday, rallying to beat the Brewers 8-6.

-- Matsuzaka threw 124 pitches in complete game win over Detroit, most pitches he has thrown for the Red Sox.

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Tuesday's list of 13: Random opinions on a warm spring day

13) Suns rallied from double digit deficit in fourth quarter, as they tied series at 2-2 with much-needed win at San Antonio Monday night, 104-98. Interesting ballgame.

12) Phoenix comeback started with Duncan on bench and the Spurs up 10, seemingly in control of game. Phoenix won this game at the pace San Antonio prefers, and with Stoudemire on bench for lot of second half with foul trouble.

11) I guess I'm surprised there aren't more scuffles in playoff series, since teams get to know each other so well, and level of frustration rises for the teams that are losing.

10) Lebron James is my NBA MVP. Where were the Cavaliers before Lebron, where would they be without him?

9) I'm not suggesting that Devil Rays are a Mickey Mouse organization, but Rays-Texas series this week is being played at Disney's Wide World of Sports, where seating capacity is around 13,000, lot more than Rangers usually draw in Tampa.

8) Nationals' Bergmann had no-hitter in 8th inning Monday vs Braves, who not only lost game 2-1, but lost Smoltz, who injured his right hand in tag play during rundown. It looked like an injury that might cost Smoltz some playing time.

7) John Buck catches for Royals, Travis Buck plays for A's in the outfield; they are only two players in history of the major leagues with last name Buck, although Jack Buck is in Hall of Fame as a great announcer for the Cardinals.

Figures the small market teams would have guys named Buck.

6) Nick Swisher has grown his hair really long, so he can get it cut and donate the hair to organization that makes wigs for cancer patients. Saturday night is the big night, as he'll get a haircut before A's-Giants game.

5) Barry Zito returns to Coliseum and will face the A's Friday.

4) World Series will start Wednesday, October 24, four days later that normal, meaning Game 7, barring rainouts, will be on November 1. Anything to increase TV ratings; who cares if they have to Zamboni the field before the game?

3) Much has been made about Roger Clemens' schedule, but Mets gave Tom Glavine the weekend off, so he could see his son make First Communion in Georgia.

2) The way they do interleague play is goofy; lot of rivalries renew this weekend: Cubs-White Sox, Angels-Dodgers, A's-Giants, Bronx-Mets, but there are some clubs that don't have natural rivals, so we get Rockies-Royals for the weekend, not exactly a box office smash in either city.

1) At some point this summer, we'll present our plan to make baseball more fun and more profitable; we do it every year, in full knowledge that it'll never happen, but it would be more fun to have the sport geographically re-aligned.

[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Tuesday, May 15

Hot Pitchers
-- Hudson is 4-1, 1.83 in eight starts this season.
-- Milwaukee is 6-0 in Vargas starts (2-0, 0.53 in last three starts)
-- Mitre has 1.88 RA in his last three starts.
-- Mets are 7-0 in Maine starts (5-0, 1.79).
-- Giants are 5-2 in Morris starts (1-0, 2.57 in last two).
-- Cardinals are 5-2 in Wainwright starts (2-0, 3.00 in last two).

-- Byrd is 1-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Orioles won five of Cabrera's last seven starts.
-- Wakefield is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (14 IP). Tigers won five of Verlander's last six starts (2-0, 2.92 in last two).
-- Shields is 2-0, 1.67 in his last four starts. McCarthy is 2-0, 1.54 in his last two starts (0-3, 25.50 in three before that).
-- Danks is 1-1, 1.42 in his last couple starts. Mussina is 2-0, 2.45 since coming off the DL.
-- Escobar is 3-0, 1.14 in his last three starts. FHernandez comes off DL to start; he is 2-1, 1.56 in three starts this season.
-- Kennedy has 2.38 RA in six starts this season.

Cold Pitchers
-- Nationals are 0-5 in JWilliams starts (0-4, 6.75).
-- Eaton has 7.62 RA in his last five starts.
-- Maholm is 1-2, 7.80 in his last three starts.
-- Zambrano has 5.04 RA in four road starts this season.
-- W.Williams is 1-4, 5.59 in his last six starts.
-- Arizona is 1-3 in Johnson starts (0-2, 6.38). Hirsh is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
-- Harang has 6.86 RA in last three starts, but Reds are 6-2 in his starts this season, scoring 55 runs. D.Wells is 0-1, 6.75 in last three starts.
-- Lowe is 1-3, 4.59 in his last five starts.

-- Ortiz is 0-3, 5.87 in his last four starts.
-- Royals are 0-3 in Bannister starts (0-2, 6.89).

Totals
-- Over is 7-3 in Washington's last ten road games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Milwaukee home games.
-- Under is 6-3 in Florida's last nine games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Cubs' last seven road games.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in games at Minute Maid Park.
-- Under is 11-3-1 in Arizona's last fifteen road games.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven games at Petco Park.
-- Over is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Dodger home games.

-- Over is 12-6-2 in last twenty Cleveland games.
-- Over is 7-3 in Baltimore's last ten games.
-- Over is 8-2-2 in last dozen Red Sox home games.
-- Four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in White Sox' last thirteen home games.
-- Under is 9-2 in last eleven Angel games.
-- Under is 10-4-3 in Oakland home games this season.

Hot Teams
-- Nationals won last four games, outscoring foes 21-8.
-- Phillies won four of their last five games.
-- Mets won five of their last six games.
-- Astros won four of their last five home games.
-- Padres won five of their last six home games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six home games.

-- Toronto won three of its last four games.
-- Red Sox won ten of their last twelve games.
-- White Sox won four of their last five games.
-- Angels won five of their last six games.
-- Oakland is 6-0 in game after its last six losses.

Cold Teams
-- Braves lost last two games, scoring total of three runs.
-- Brewers lost three of first four games on road trip.
-- Marlins lost four in row, eight of last ten games. Pirates are 3-6 in their last nine home games, but won the last two.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Giants lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Arizona lost three of their last four games. Colorado is 4-7 in its last eleven home games.
-- Reds lost four in row, eleven of their last thirteen games.
-- Cardinals lost eight of last twelve road games.

-- Indians, Twins both lost four of their last five games.
-- Orioles lost last three games, outscored 24-12. Toronto is 5-8 in last thirteen home games.
-- Tigers lost last two games, allowing 23 runs.
-- Devil Rays lost six of their last seven games. Rangers are 5-13 on the road this season.
-- Bronx lost three of its last four games.
-- Seattle is 0-5 in game after its last five wins.
-- Royals lost seven of their last ten games; they're 0-4 in second game of series, if they win the opener.

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Tuesday, May 15

Chicago staved off elimination with 102-87 Game 4 win, but now they need road win to stay alive, and Bulls lost first two games at Palace 95-69/108-87, shooting 32.9/34.3% from floor- in their win Sunday, Chicago made 49.3% of shots. Pistons are 17-37 in series from arc, at home; they were 12-47 in Chicago. Home side in this series has won rebounding by 8-21-17-18.

Warriors lost pair of close games in Utah to open series, but if they don't win Game 5, this series ends; Golden State's starting guards were 11-31 in Game 4 home loss. Jazz shot 50%+ for 2nd time in last three games, plus they got to line 43 times on road. In series, Utah has won rebounding by 18-28-12-16, so all shots Warriors miss (they were 12-39 from arc in Game 4) are scooped up by Jazz players. Boozer had 34 in Game 4,; Warriors need to find some way to neutralize him.

[pm530]

Hockey – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Tuesday, May 15

Red Wings lost both games at Pond this season (4-1/4-2), now they'll need to win one here or they'll lose series, after Anaheim won game 2 in OT. Ducks only lost one game in each series so far; they were 0-12 on power play in Detroit, Wings are 4-12 if they have man advantage. Anaheim has given up only 14 goals in its last eight games.

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Tuesday, May 15

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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (7:05 PM ET)
Detroit right-hander Justin Verlander picked up a 6-4 loss to Boston in his only career start against them last year, allowing five runs and six hits over six innings. EDGE: RED SOX
Verlander has been magnificent on the road this season, allowing just two earned runs and 12 hits over 20 innings. EDGE: TIGERS
Boston's Tim Wakefield hasn't allowed a run in his past two starts, throwing 14 shutout innings in the process. He's an even 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts at Fenway Park this season. EDGE: RED SOX
The Red Sox are 5-0 in Wakefield's last five home starts versus the Tigers.



Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians (7:05 PM ET)
Minnesota starter Ramon Ortiz is 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA in seven career appearances (five starts) against Cleveland. EDGE: TWINS
Ortiz is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA in four road starts this season with his last road win coming on April 17. EDGE: INDIANS
Cleveland's Paul Byrd is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts at Jacobs Field this season. He's gone two straight starts without picking up a decision despite allowing just three earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. EDGE: INDIANS
The Indians are 13-3 in Byrd's last 16 home starts.



Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (7:10 PM ET)
Chicago's Carlos Zambrano has had a rough go of it in 2007 so far, posting a 3-3 record with an inflated 5.83 ERA. The power throwing right-hander has allowed seven home runs on the road this season in just 25 innings. EDGE: OVER
New York starter John Maine comes in with an unblemished 5-0 record this season with a 1.79 ERA. He's made two career appearances against Chicago, tossing eight shutout innings and allowing just four hits. BIG EDGE: METS
The Mets have won all seven of Maine's starts this season by outscoring opponents 47-14. BIG EDGE: METS
The OVER is 21-5 in Zambrano's last 26 starts overall.



Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (7:10 PM ET)
Texas starter Robinson Tejeda comes into this start after lasting a season-low 3 2/3 innings against New York. He allowed six runs and six hits in a Rangers 6-2 loss. EDGE: D-RAYS
Tejeda is 2-1 with a 5.09 ERA in three career starts against the Devil Rays. SLIGHT EDGE: RANGERS & OVER
Tampa Bay's James Shield is a perfect 3-0 this season with a 3.10 ERA and is coming off his strongest start of the season - throwing nine shutout innings in a no-decision effort against Baltimore. EDGE: D-RAYS
The UNDER is 7-0-2 in Tejeda's last nine road starts.



San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros (8:05 PM ET)
San Francisco right-hander Matt Morris is 11-10 with a 3.43 ERA in 31 career appearances against Houston. SLIGHT EDGE: GIANTS
Astros veteran starter Woody Williams is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in two starts this season at Minute Maid Park. EDGE: GIANTS
Williams is 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA in 17 career appearances against San Francisco and comes in off his first victory of the season, a 3-2 win over Cincinnati. SLIGHT EDGE: ASTROS
The Giants are 21-5 in the last 26 meetings in Houston.



Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (10:05 PM ET)
Angels right-hander Kelvim Escobar has won three straight games, with his last outing being by far his most dominant. He led the Angels to an 8-0 win over Cleveland on May 10, throwing a shutout with nine strikeouts. BIG EDGE: ANGELS
Mariners second-year starter Felix Hernandez will make his first start since landing on the disabled list on April 19 with a straight right forearm. He's 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts this season. SLIGHT EDGE: MARINERS
Hernandez is 2-2 with a 2.64 ERA in four career starts against the Angels. EDGE: UNDER
The OVER is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Seattle.



Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres (10:05 PM ET)
Cincinnati's Aaron Harang played his collegiate baseball at San Diego State and has enjoyed pitching against San Diego in his career. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA in five career starts against them. EDGE: REDS
Harang is a perfect 2-0 on the road this season, but has a very high 5.49 ERA. EDGE: OVER
San Diego left-hander David Wells is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati. EDGE: PADRES
The OVER is 4-1 in Harang's last five starts versus the Padres.



St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)
After suffering through a rough ending to April, St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright has turned things around in May. He's 2-0 this month and has allowed just three earned runs in 12 innings of work. EDGE: CARDINALS
Los Angeles starter Derek Lowe has lost all three career starts against St. Louis, allowing 15 runs and 29 hits in just 16 innings. EDGE: CARDINALS
Lowe is 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA in two home starts this season. EDGE: UNDER
The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Tips and Trends

NBA
Tips and trends


Tuesday, May 15

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#5 Chicago Bulls at #1 Detroit Pistons
Game 5 - Tuesday, May 15th, 8 p.m. Eastern (TNT)
For the first time in the series, Detroit's backcourt got into foul trouble, showing how critical Chauncy Billups and Richard Hamilton are to the team. Both players fouled out late after making a combined 9-of-26 shots (35 percent) from the field. The Pistons seemed to get most of the calls in the first two games at home, and insiders don't expect the officiating to be in Chicago's favor here. EDGE: PISTONS
The Pistons remain 12-2 SU in their last 14 opportunities to close out an opponent in the playoffs and will get another excellent chance here at home. Detroit won each of the first two games of this series against the Bulls by an average of 23.5 points and has not won a home game by less than eight points in the playoffs. BIG EDGE: PISTONS
Chicago faces long odds to win this series down 3-1, but this team has proven it can win at Detroit. The Bulls crushed the Pistons 106-88 at The Palace back on April 4th and lost the first meeting of the regular season at Detroit, 95-93. If Chicago can just forget about the first two games of this playoff series and shoot the ball well, experts would not be surprised if this matchup was very competitve. SLIGHT EDGE: BULLS
Detroit is 20-8-3 ATS in its last 31 games.
Chicago is 10-22 ATS in the last 32 meetings.
OVER is 9-3 in Detroit's last 12 home games.
First-round Results: Chicago | Detroit

Head-to-Head Recaps

SECOND-ROUND RESULTS (HOME team in CAPS)

Detroit leads 3-1 SU & ATS
OVER/UNDER 2-2

5/13/07 - Game 4: CHICAGO 102, Detroit 87 (ATS winner: Chicago +3 | OVER 182)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: Unlike Game 3, the Bulls held on to a big lead and earned their first victory of the series with outstanding defense in the third quarter. The Pistons were outscored 27-13 in the third and faced a 21-point deficit going into the fourth, which proved to be just too big to recover from for the second game in a row. Chicago also had its best shooting performance of the series at 49 percent, breaking the century mark and pushing the total OVER with the help of 27 points from the charity stripe.

5/10/07 - Game 3: Detroit 81, CHICAGO 74 (ATS winner: Detroit +2.5 | UNDER 185)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: The Bulls simply collapsed in the second half after holding an impressive 44-28 lead at the break. The Pistons scored just 10 points in the second quarter and trailed by as many as 19 but held a dominating 53-30 edge after halftime to earn the victory, moving one game away from their second consecutive playoff sweep.

5/7/07 - Game 2: DETROIT 108, Chicago 87 (ATS winner: Detroit -5 | OVER 182)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: This was pretty much a carbon copy of Game 1 with a slighly higher pace, as the Pistons got off to a 34-18 lead after the first quarter and coasted the rest of the way. The Bulls pulled within 93-80 in the fourth, but Detroit came right back with a dunk and 3-pointer to stay far enough ahead - a failed cover was never in doubt.

5/5/07 - Game 1: DETROIT 95, Chicago 69 (ATS winner: Detroit -5 | UNDER 182.5)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: The Pistons made an early statement in the series opener, holding the Bulls to their lowest point total in playoff history. Detroit led by 13 at halftime and then blew the game open early in the fourth quarter when three different players hit 3-pointers in the first two minutes for a 19-point lead. Chicago made just 33 percent of its shots and was severely outplayed from start to finish, turning the ball over 22 times.

REMAINING SCHEDULE

5/15/07 - Game 5: Chicago at DETROIT (TNT | 8 PM ET)
5/17/07 - Game 6: Detroit at CHICAGO (ESPN | TBD)
5/21/07 - Game 7: Chicago at DETROIT (TNT | TBD)

REGULAR-SEASON RESULTS

Chicago wins 3-1 SU & ATS
OVER 3-1

4/4/07 - Chicago 106, DETROIT 88 (ATS winner: Chicago +6 | OVER 186)
3/29/07 - CHICAGO 83, Detroit 81 (ATS winner: Det +4.5 | UNDER 181)
2/25/07 - DETROIT 95, Chicago 93 (ATS winner: Chicago +6 | OVER 182.5)
1/6/07 - CHICAGO 106, Detroit 89 (ATS winner: Chicago -4.5 | OVER 189.5)

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECAP: The Pistons won just one of the regular-season meetings between the teams, and that was a struggle as they had to rally back from down 16 points at home to win by two. The Bulls actually had a chance to win that meeting too, but Ben Gordon's 3-pointer fell short at the buzzer. Chicago then left a very bad taste in Detroit's mouth with a 106-88 beating at The Palace on April 4th. Of course there is the massive sub-plot of this series involving Bulls center Ben Wallace, who left the Pistons for more money and got the best of his former team during the regular season. Only one of these teams will look like a genius after their playoff matchup though, emerging as the favorite to get to the 2007 NBA Finals.


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#8 Golden State Warriors at #4 Utah Jazz
Game 5 - Tuesday, May 15th, 10:30 p.m. Eastern (TNT)

The Jazz continue to have a clear advantage inside with Carlos Boozer, who totaled a game-high 34 points and 12 rebounds in Game 4. The Warriors have also been outrebounded by a 210-136 margin so far through four games, and that huge disparity should benefit Utah even more at home in Game 5. BIG EDGE: JAZZ
The Warriors have proven they can win on the road in the playoffs, knocking off Dallas in Game 1 of their first-round series and with a shot to beat Utah in each of the first two games of this series. They are a team that still believes in themselves, losing back-to-back games just once since March 26th. EDGE: WARRIORS
Game 4 marked the first time since March 20th that the total went UNDER for the Warriors and they lost the game. Golden State was 6-0 both SU & ATS in the previous six games when the total went UNDER. Ironically, the last time the total went UNDER and the Warriors lost also came against the Jazz. However, they are still 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games when the total has gone UNDER. EDGE: WARRIORS & UNDER
Golden State is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 road games.
Utah is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games, including 4-0-1 at home.
Favorite is 13-6-4 in the last 23 meetings.
OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
First-round Results: Utah | Golden State

Head-to-Head Recaps

SECOND-ROUND RESULTS (HOME team in CAPS)

Utah leads 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS)
OVER 3-1

5/13/07 - Game 4: Utah 115, GOLDEN STATE 101 (ATS winner: UTAH +7 | UNDER 219)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: The Jazz used a monstrous fourth quarter to blow out the Warriors, outscoring them 40-23 after trailing 78-75 at the end of the third. Utah held a 50-49 lead at halftime and limited Golden State to its lowest point total of the series. Baron Davis, Jason Richardson and Stephen Jackson combined to make just 14-of-43 shots from the field for the Warriors - including 6-of-22 from 3-point range - as the total went UNDER for the first time in the series.

5/11/07 - Game 3: GOLDEN STATE 125, Utah 105 (ATS winner: GS -6.5 | OVER 216)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: The Warriors made an NBA record-tying 11 3-pointers in the first half en route to a dominating 70-49 lead at the break, setting an OVER pace for the third game in a row. Golden State ended up scoring a playoff-high 125 points and led by as many as 30 in the second half, as the Jazz simply could not keep up with this one.

5/9/07 - Game 2: UTAH 127, Golden State 117 OT (ATS winner: Utah -3.5 | OVER 213)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: Utah's Derek Fisher made a dramatic return after missing Game 1 to be with his daughter who was undergoing surgery, outscoring the Warriors 5-4 in overtime as the Jazz took a 2-0 series lead. Fisher entered the game at the end of the third quarter after flying back on a private jet with his wife and daughter, and he sparked a late rally to help his team battle back from a five-point deficit and force OT. The Warriors had gone on a 12-1 run late in the fourth to take the lead, taking advantage of six missed free throws by the Jazz in the process. Another high-scoring affair went OVER in regulation and grew even more in the extra session.

5/7/07 - Game 1: UTAH 116, Golden State 112 (ATS winner: PUSH -4 | OVER 209)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: Surprisingly, the Jazz came out running and gunning, which almost cost them against the high-scoring Warriors. Utah bolted out to an early 17-7 lead and then fought off a flurry by Golden State to stay ahead 37-35 after the first quarter. The Warriors outscored the Jazz 31-26 to take a 66-63 halftime lead, and then Utah needed a strong comeback in the final minutes to pull off the victory. In fact, Golden State let a cover slip away when Matt Harpring hit a pair of free throws in the final seconds to force a push. Otherwise, the fast pace forced an easy OVER from the beginning.

REMAINING SCHEDULE

5/15/07 - Game 5: Golden State at UTAH (TNT | 10:30 PM ET)
5/17/07 - Game 6: Utah at GOLDEN STATE (ESPN | TBD)
5/20/07 - Game 7: Golden State at UTAH (TBD)

REGULAR-SEASON RESULTS

Series tied 2-2 SU (Golden State 3-1 ATS)
UNDER 3-1

4/9/07 - GOLDEN STATE 126, Utah 102 (ATS winner: GS -5 | OVER 216)
3/20/07 - UTAH 104, Golden State 100 (ATS winner: GS +7.5 | UNDER 205.5)
11/25/06 - GOLDEN STATE 91, Utah 78 (ATS winner: GS +1 | UNDER 214)
11/4/06 - UTAH 106, Golden State 82 (ATS winner: Utah -6 | UNDER 207)

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECAP: Only the third meeting had meaning for both teams and included the current roster of the Warriors, who made a midseason trade and had to win every game down the stretch just to get into the playoffs. The host won each time, and both were among the best home teams in the NBA during the regular season. This makes for another exciting series that could go the distance depending on whether or not one loses the momentum gained from the first round.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Hot Lines

NBA
Hot Lines


Tuesday, May 15

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Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz (-4, 217 ½)

Even with 20,679 screaming fans on their side Sunday night, the Warriors could not find any answers for Carlos Boozer.

The first-time All-Star is averaging 25 points and 14 rebounds through the first four games of this series. Warriors coach Don Nelson did not offer any insight on how his team might limit Boozer’s effectiveness in Game 5.

“Their strength is our weakness,” Nelson told the San Francisco Chronicle. “They’re big, strong and go inside, and we don’t.”

Golden State blew a chance to tie this series up and now face a daunting task of winning two more games in Utah if they want to advance to the third round of the playoffs.

Pick: Jazz –3 ½



Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons (-7, 183 ½)

The Bulls fought off elimination on Sunday but the 102-87 win was anything but convincing. Chicago led by as many as 21 points but allowed the Pistons to close within seven points with under five minutes left in the fourth quarter.

“Every time we play and do what we’re supposed to do, we are successful,” Pistons point guard Chauncey Billups told reporters. “I don’t know how good they can feel about seeing a 20-point lead shrink to seven in the fourth quarter.”

Pick: Pistons –7

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[pm530]

Hockey – Hot Lines

NHL
Hot Lines


Tuesday, May 15

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Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks (-170, 4 ½)

Anaheim has been doing a great job preventing the Wings from scoring an even-strength goal, but the Ducks will be in trouble if they can't get their power play going.

The Ducks haven’t scored a power play marker since Game 3 against the Vancouver Canucks. They are 0-for-12 with a man advantage in the series against Detroit and are scoreless on their last 31 straight pwr plays.

“It’s an area we can improve on,” Anaheim forward Andy McDonald told the Detroit News. “For whatever reason, it’s not going the way we kind of thought.”

An upper-body injury that will keep Chris Kunitz out of the lineup won’t help the Ducks special teams either. Only Teemu Selanne scored more power play goals for the Ducks than Kunitz.

Pick: Wings +160

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet


Tuesday, May 15

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CHICAGO (54 - 36) at DETROIT (60 - 30) - 5/15/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 18-27 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games this season.
DETROIT is 48-40 ATS (+4.0 Units) in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 8-8 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 10-6 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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GOLDEN STATE (47 - 45) at UTAH (58 - 35) - 5/15/2007, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-41 ATS (+3.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
UTAH is 24-33 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
UTAH is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 8-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 9-6 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Hockey – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


Tuesday, May 15

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DETROIT (59-23-0-14, 132 pts.) at ANAHEIM (57-22-0-15, 129 pts.) - 5/15/2007, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 52-61 ATS (-42.0 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 32-18 ATS (-1.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 53-29 ATS (+13.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 34-15 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-4 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-4-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.1 Units)

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet


Tuesday, May 15th

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Eastern Conference Playoffs
Semifinals, Game Five
Detroit Leads, 3-1
TV: TNT
Chicago at Detroit, 8:05 EST

Chicago:
1-9 ATS away off ATS wins in 3 of their last 4 games
11-2 Over off BB games with 5 or less steals

Detroit:
13-7 ATS revenging a loss as a favorite
8-1 Over at home off a division game


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Western Conference Playoffs
Semifinals, Game Five
Utah Leads, 3-1
TV: TNT
Golden State at Utah, 10:35 EST

Golden State:
6-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less
16-4 Over revenging a loss as a favorite

Utah:
20-11 ATS after playing as an underdog
23-8 Over after committing 30+ fouls

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[pm530]

Hockey – Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet


Tuesday, May 15th

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Western Conference Playoffs
Finals, Game Three
Series Tied, 1-1
TV: VER
Detroit at Anaheim, 9:05 EST

Detroit:
5-13 SU away after winning 3 of their last 4 games
15-5 Under at Anaheim

Anaheim:
20-5 SU as a home favorite of -200 or less
26-12 SU after winning 3 of their last 4 games

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[Udog]

MLB
Streaking Pitchers


Tuesday, May 15


Hot

Kelvim Escobar (Los Angeles Angels) - This hard-throwing righty has always had great stuff. This season, he finally has the numbers to back up the arm. Escobar has cashed three straight starts for the Angels, who are +111 underdogs tonight at Safeco Field in Felix Hernandez's return to the Seattle Mariners. Backers have benefitted from Escobar's 1.14 ERA in the three wins as the former Blue Jay walked only three batters in almost 24 innings pitched.

Claudio Vargas (Milwaukee Brewers) - If someone would have told you before the season that Vargas and the Brew Crew would be road favorites against the Philadelphia Phillies, you would have laughed in their face. Looks like Milwaukee bettors got the last laugh with the season Vargas has been having. Vargas is 3-0 so far with a miniscule 0.53 ERA since April 24. Oddsmakers have the Brewers as -105 favorites for tonight's game.

Cold

David Wells (San Diego Padres) - This might very well be the end of the line for Boomer. Wells is winless in his last three trips to the mound, mainly because of his 6.75 ERA during the skid. The biggest problem for Padres backers when Wells has taken the hill is the veteran's inability to keep runners off the base paths. Wells has an unsightly .432 OBP against and 1.94 WHIP in three starts for San Diego, a slim -115 favorite tonight at Petco Park against the Cincinnati Reds.

Daniel Cabrera (Baltimore Orioles) - At first glance, it looks like there's good value in the Orioles tonight on the road against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have struggled recently and are sending out Double-A pitcher Jesse Litsch at Rogers Centre. Then you take a look at Cabrera's stat line and you realize that he's sucked all the value out of the Orioles tonight as -116 road favorites. Cabrera has a 5.50 ERA since April 26 while allowing 10 walks in his last 18 innings.