Friday Trends and Indexes 05/11

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Friday, May 11

Good Luck on day #131 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Friday

-- Lowe, Contreras both threw complete games Thursday, and neither threw 100 pitches, which is unusual.

-- Unfortunately for Lowe, his 94th pitch got hit over fence, and Dodgers lost 3-0 at Florida, but still, a strong effort.

-- Would it kill Devil Ray management to trade for pitching?

-- A's lost Joe Kennedy's first five starts, scoring a total of nine runs, so of course, they scored 17 in his sixth start.

-- In his last two starts, Roy Halladay has allowed 17 runs in 10.1 IP. Red Sox pounded him Thursday, not a good sign.

-- Jeff Weaver is 0-6, 14.32 for Mariners; leaving St Louis is turning out to be a disaster for the elder Weaver brother.

[pm530]

Friday's list of 13: Random thoughts as weekend is here

13) BJ Upton has to be most improved hitter in baseball; last year, he hit .240 and often looked feeble. Not anymore; he is still striking out a lot, but he hits the ball hard quite often.

12) Doug Flutie got inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame, and also became the first non-Canadian inducted into the Canadian Sports Hall of Fame. Now thats a compliment. Pretty good week, any way you look at it.

11) Boston College, by the way, is trying to get a home/home football series with USC for 2010-11.

10) Seattle Mariners lead major leagues in average attendance for away games, drawing average of 37,930 in 12 road games.

9) The average AL crowd is 28,421 (Tampa Bay, Cleveland are dragging number down (15,729/17,496)-- lot of bad weather in Cleveland this spring). Average NL crowd is 31,537; average of 17,934 for Pirate home games is lowest NL figure.

8) Someone explain to me how the Bulls lead 44-28 at the half in Game 3, after getting drilled in first two games, then lose?? Chicago scored 30 points in second half. Not good.

7) You don't need seven games to figure out which NBA team is better than the other. Best-of-five series would be plenty.

6) NBA teams that fall behind in a series three games to none are 0-81 in that series. Baseball teams are 1-28; NHL teams are 2-147. If you're down 2-0, then, it is basically a must-win.

5) Celtics extended contract of Doc Rivers Thursday, this is a great country, for sure. Maybe if Boston lands one of the two big names in drafr, Oden/Durant, Doc will get himself another raise. Only in America.

4) Colorado has decent closer in lefty Fuentes, but if he has to face Barry Bonds in big spot, its a problem, because in his career, Bonds is 8-10 with two homers vs Fuentes.

3) Blue Jays look totally dead and now BJ Ryan is out for the year after Tommy John surgery, not that they need a closer a lot anyway, as badly as they're playing. Hard to imagine John Gibbons surviving this disaster.

2) Giants' Mark Sweeney is active leader with 144 pinch hits in his career; Astros' Orlando Palmeiro is next, with 108.

1) First real drama of season comes Friday, as 24-10 Brewers visit Shea Stadium and the Mets. Lot of naysayers where the Brewers are concerned; this becomes an interesting series.

[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Friday, May 11

Hot Pitchers
-- Duke has 2.89 RA in his last three starts.
-- R.Hill is 4-1, 1.73 in six starts for Cubs this year. Phillies are 4-1 in last five Hamels starts (4-1, 4.93).
-- Suppan is 5-0, 2.06 in his last five starts. Sosa won his first '07 start, giving up two runs in 6.2 IP at Arizona.
-- Arizona won Webb's last three road starts (2-0, 1.71).
-- Peavy is 1-1, 1.71 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 2-0, 2.36 in his last four starts.

-- Devil Rays won last three Kazmir starts (1-0, 2.75).
-- Lackey is 2-1, 2.66 in his last three starts.
-- Detroit is 6-0 in Maroth starts, scoring 38 runs.
-- Indians are 7-0 in Sabathia starts, scoring 54 runs. Blanton has 2.87 RA in two home starts, but A's lost both games, scoring a total of three runs.
-- Bronx won last three Rasner starts (1-0, 2.35). Washburn has a 2.11 RA in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Olsen has 7.62 RA in his three road starts. S.Hill is 0-2, 5.40 in his two home starts, last of which was April 8.
-- Davies is 0-1, 7.65 in his last four starts.
-- Sampson is 1-2, 6.60 in his last three starts.
-- Fogg is 1-3, 9.45 in his last four starts. Lincecum allowed five runs in 4.1 IP in MLB debut, losing 8-5 at home to Phillies.
-- KWells is 0-5, 9.64 in his last five starts.
-- Dodgers lost last three Wolf starts (0-2, 6.00).

-- Burres lost first MLB start 9-6 vs Indians, allowing five runs in 3.2 IP. Tavarez is 1-3, 6.57 in five starts this season.
-- Blue Jays are 1-4 in Burnett's last five starts.
-- Rangers lost six of Padilla's seven starts this season.
-- Santana is 2-2, 4.65 in four home starts this season.
-- White Sox are 0-3 in Garland home starts (0-2, 6.05). Royals are 2-5 in Perez starts (2-3, 6.82).

Totals
-- Under is 4-1 in Florida's last five games.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Atlanta road games.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Cub road games.
-- Under is 5-1 in Mets' last six games.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last ten Arizona road games.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Colorado games.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven St Louis games.
-- Over is 7-1 in last eight Cincinnati road games.

-- Five of last six Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Over is 12-4-2 in Tampa Bay road games.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine Angel games.
-- Last five Detroit games all went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-2-2 in Oakland home games.
-- Under is 8-2-2 in last twelve Bronx games.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won six of their last eight games.
-- Cubs won nine of their last twelve games. Phillies won five of their last seven home games.
-- Brewers won five in row, nine of last ten games. Mets are 6-2 in their last eight games.
-- Astros won six of their last nine games.
-- Cardinals won three of last four games, allowing seven runs.
-- Dodgers are 6-0 in game after their last six losses.

-- Orioles won five of their last seven games. Red Sox won four games in row, allowing total of seven runs.
-- Tigers won nine of last ten games, scoring 69 runs.
-- White Sox won four of their last five games.
-- A's are 4-2 in their last six games, allowing fifteen runs.
-- Bronx won seven of its last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins are 1-6 in game after their last seven wins. Nationals lost last eight games, outscored 37-18.
-- Pirates lost six of their last nine games.
-- Arizona lost five of their last six road games.
-- Padres lost last three games, scoring seven runs.
-- Giants are 1-4 in their last five games. Colorado is 1-5 in 2nd game of series, if they won the opener.
-- Cincinnati lost eight of its last ten games.

-- Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games. Toronto lost its last nine games, allowing 72 runs.
-- Rangers are 2-9 in last 11 games they scored less than 7 runs.
-- Angels are 1-4 in road series openers.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
-- Royals lost five of their last six games.
-- Indians lost last two games, scoring total of two runs.
-- Seattle is 3-5 in last eight games, but won four of five at home.

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Friday, May 11

Utah scored 121.5 ppg in winning two home games to open the series, now they're visiting court where Warriors were 3-0 in the Dallas series, winning by 18,4,25 points. Golden State was 15-40 from arc in wild Game 2 (27-71 in series so far); Jackson (4-18), Barnes (3-12) need to make more shots. Jazz was 1-3 on road in Houston series, but now they've won four in row overall.

[pm530]

Hockey – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Friday, May 11

Home side won all four Anaheim-Detroit games this season, as Ducks scored only one goal in pair of visits to Motor City (1-2/ 0-1), but won both games at Pond (4-1/4-2). Wings allowed nine goals in six-game San Jose series, only one in last two games. Anaheim has won both their series in five games, also giving up nine goals in last six games.

[pm530]

Arena Football League – Write up

AFL
Write-up


Friday, May 11

Grand Rapids (3-6) @ Columbus (5-4) -- Destroyers won three of last four games, holding last three foes to 32.3 ppg; they're facing Rampage squad that scored 71 points in each of last two games, but only split the pair. Grand Rapids is 1-3 on road, losing last three away games by 41,11,4 points. Seven of last eight Rampage games went over total; last three Columbus games stayed under.

New Orleans (4-5) @ Orlando (5-4) -- Predators lost 48-45 at New Orleans in Week 5 (-2.5), in game where Voodoo turned ball over five times, still won, rare for Arenaball. NO hasn't had its bye yet while Orlando has won three of four since its bye; they're 5-1 if they allow 47 or less points, but Voodoo has scored 48+ in seven of its last ten games this season.

Colorado (6-4) @ Nashville (4-6) -- Neither team has had a bye yet Kats lost 65-48 in Denver six weeks ago (+3), in game they led at half, 28-24. Nashville is just 2-3 at home, while Colorado is 2-3 on road, and is playing third straight road contest. Over is 6-2 in last eight Crush contests, 5-2 in Kats' last seven games. Colorado is 2-3 as an underdog this year, Nashville 1-1 as the favorite.

[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Friday, May 11

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Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 PM ET)
Chicago starter Rich Hill is a perfect 2-0 on the road this season with a 1.23 ERA. He's surrendered just 11 hits over 22 innings while striking out 19. EDGE: CUBS
Hill has a 1-4 career record in May with a 7.46 ERA - his highest ERA of any month. EDGE: PHILLIES
Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels got blasted for nine runs in only two innings of work last year in his only start against the Cubs. He's allowed at least three earned runs in three consecutive starts since striking out 15 batters on April 21 versus the Reds. EDGE: OVER


Florida Marlins at Washington Nationals (7:05 PM ET)
Marlins left-hander Scott Olsen was knocked around by the Nationals earlier this year in a 6-5 loss. He allowed a season-high ten hits and five runs in five innings of work. EDGE: NATIONALS
Olsen is 2-1 on the season away from Dolphin Stadium despite having a 5.79 ERA on the road. EDGE: OVER
Washington starter Shawn Hill has been the steadiest starter this year for the Nationals, going 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA. The Nationals have scored just four runs in his three losses this season. EDGE: UNDER


Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 PM ET)
Tampa Bay ace Scott Kazmir comes into this series-opener with a 2-0 record and 4.05 ERA on the road this season. EDGE: D-RAYS
The Devil Rays have won three straight starts with Kazmir on the hill since a 6-4 victory over the Yankees on April 24. EDGE: D-RAYS
Toronto starter A.J. Burnett finally returns home after pitching four straight games on the road. He's 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA at Rogers Centre this season. EDGE: BLUE JAYS


Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (7:10 PM ET)
Milwaukee plays 13 of its next 16 on the road, beginning with a three-game series against a Mets club that finished 2006 with the NL's best record and has the third-best mark in the league this season at 21-12. SLIGHT EDGE: METS
Brewers starter Jeff Suppan has given up just three runs over his last 22 2/3 innings. He's 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA in six starts against the Mets. EDGE: BREWERS & UNDER
New York's Jorge Sosa is 0-1 with a 0.95 ERA in six appearances against the Brewers, including two starts. EDGE: METS
The Brewers are 10-1 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed starter.


Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (8:10 PM ET)
The Twins have lost three of five since catcher Joe Mauer last played on May 4th, scoring only 15 runs in that span, seven coming in one games. EDGE: TIGERS & UNDER
Minnesota is 9-11 at the Metrodome this season after leading the Majors with a 54-27 home record in 2006. SLIGHT EDGE: TWINS
Minnesota left-hander Johan Santana is 10-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 16 career starts against Detroit. BIG EDGE: TWINS
Despite starter Mike Maroth's lofty 5.35 ERA, the Tigers are 6-0 this season with the left-hander on the mound. SLIGHT EDGE: TIGERS
Maroth is 3-9 with a 4.78 ERA in 17 career starts against the Twins. EDGE: TWINS
The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros (8:05 PM ET)
Arizona right-hander Brandon Webb has made five starts against Houston and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of them, going 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA. EDGE: D-BACKS & UNDER
The Diamondbacks haven't scored more than four runs in nine consecutive games, totaling 24 in that span while dropping toward the bottom of the NL ranks with 3.9 runs per contest. EDGE: UNDER
Houston's Lance Berkman is red-hot, hitting safely in all 10 games this month while batting .406 with nine RBIs and nine runs. EDGE: ASTROS
The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.


New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners (10:05 PM ET)
New York right-hander Darrell Rasner has pitched very well in his last three starts, allowing only one earned run over 15 1/3 innings. He had his best outing of the season Sunday in a 5-0 win over the Mariners, combining with four relievers on a four-hitter. EDGE: YANKEES
Thursday continued a disturbing trend for the Mariners, who have been outscored 35-13 in the first inning this season. EDGE: YANKEES - FIRST FIVE INNINGS
Seattle starter Jarrod Washburn is 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA in nine career starts against the Yankees, but has lost three of his last four appearances against them. SLIGHT EDGE: MARINERS

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Tips and Trends

NBA
Tips and trends


Friday, May 11

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#4 Utah Jazz at #8 Golden State Warriors
Game 3 - Friday, May 11th, 9 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)

The Jazz again showed they have a significant advantage inside in this series in Game 2. Insiders believe the Warriors shouldn't have even had a chance in either of the first two games as they were outrebounded by a 114-68 margin. That huge edge on the glass likely won't change and gives Utah a solid shot to win one of the two games on the road. EDGE: JAZZ
No team left in the playoffs has a bigger advantage at home than the Warriors, who have averaged almost 116 points in winning their last eight there (6-2 ATS). That obviously includes three games in the first round against Dallas in which Golden State won by an average of nearly 16 points as an underdog each time. BIG EDGE: WARRIORS
Nobody could have predicted that Utah's Derek Fisher would make a huge impact in Game 2 after missing Game 1 to be with his ailing daughter. Fisher outscored the Warriors 5-4 in overtime and without him, Golden State likely would have returned home with a 1-1 split. The Jazz won't be playing with the same emotion a couple nights later on the road and also have to now deal with the aftermath of a neck injury suffered by reserve point guard Dee Brown. EDGE: WARRIORS
Golden State is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 games overall.
Utah is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
Utah is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games.
Favorite is 12-5-4 in the last 21 meetings.
OVER is 12-5 in Utah's last 17 games.
OVER is 15-6 in Golden State's last 21 games.
OVER is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings.

Head-to-Head Recaps

SECOND-ROUND RESULTS (HOME team in CAPS)

Utah leads 2-0 SU (1-0-1 ATS)
OVER 2-0

5/9/07 - Game 2: UTAH 127, Golden State 117 OT (ATS winner: Utah -3.5 | OVER 213)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: Utah's Derek Fisher made a dramatic return after missing Game 1 to be with his daughter who was undergoing surgery, outscoring the Warriors 5-4 in overtime as the Jazz took a 2-0 series lead. Fisher entered the game at the end of the third quarter after flying back on a private jet with his wife and daughter, and he sparked a late rally to help his team battle back from a five-point deficit and force OT. The Warriors had gone on a 12-1 run late in the fourth to take the lead, taking advantage of six missed free throws by the Jazz in the process. Another high-scoring affair went OVER in regulation and grew even more in the extra session.

5/7/07 - Game 1: UTAH 116, Golden State 112 (ATS winner: PUSH -4 | OVER 209)
Recap | Boxscore
SUMMARY: Surprisingly, the Jazz came out running and gunning, which almost cost them against the high-scoring Warriors. Utah bolted out to an early 17-7 lead and then fought off a flurry by Golden State to stay ahead 37-35 after the first quarter. The Warriors outscored the Jazz 31-26 to take a 66-63 halftime lead, and then Utah needed a strong comeback in the final minutes to pull off the victory. In fact, Golden State let a cover slip away when Matt Harpring hit a pair of free throws in the final seconds to force a push. Otherwise, the fast pace forced an easy OVER from the beginning.

REMAINING SCHEDULE

5/11/07 - Game 3: Utah at GOLDEN STATE (ESPN | 9 PM ET)
5/13/07 - Game 4: Utah at GOLDEN STATE (TNT | 9 PM ET)
5/15/07 - Game 5: Golden State at UTAH (TNT | TBD)
5/17/07 - Game 6: Utah at GOLDEN STATE (ESPN | TBD)
5/20/07 - Game 7: Golden State at UTAH (TBD)

REGULAR-SEASON RESULTS

Series tied 2-2 SU (Golden State 3-1 ATS)
UNDER 3-1

4/9/07 - GOLDEN STATE 126, Utah 102 (ATS winner: GS -5 | OVER 216)
3/20/07 - UTAH 104, Golden State 100 (ATS winner: GS +7.5 | UNDER 205.5)
11/25/06 - GOLDEN STATE 91, Utah 78 (ATS winner: GS +1 | UNDER 214)
11/4/06 - UTAH 106, Golden State 82 (ATS winner: Utah -6 | UNDER 207)

REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECAP: Only the third meeting had meaning for both teams and included the current roster of the Warriors, who made a midseason trade and had to win every game down the stretch just to get into the playoffs. The host won each time, and both were among the best home teams in the NBA during the regular season. This makes for another exciting series that could go the distance depending on whether or not one loses the momentum gained from the first round.

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[pm530]

Hockey – Tips & Trends

NHL
Tips and trends


Friday, May 11

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Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings (7:30 PM ET)
Detroit goaltender Dominik Hasek, a six-time Vezina Trophy winner, is giving up 1.5 goals a game in the playoffs and he shut out the San Jose Sharks in the series-clinching win Monday. EDGE: RED WINGS & UNDER
Anaheim's Jean-Sebastien Giguere is allowing a league-low 1.28 goals this postseason. BIG EDGE: DUCKS & UNDER
The Ducks are 3-18-1 n the last 22 meetings in Detroit.
The UNDER is 21-5-4 in the last 30 meetings.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet


Friday, May 11

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UTAH (57 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (46 - 44) - 5/11/2007, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 8-5 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Hockey – Long Sheet

NHL
Long Sheet


Friday, May 11

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ANAHEIM (56-21-0-15, 127 pts.) at DETROIT (58-23-0-13, 129 pts.) - 5/11/2007, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 14-5 ATS (+4.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.
DETROIT is 16-4 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 33-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 44-25 ATS (+10.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 31-17 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-3 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-3-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.1 Units)

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Friday, May 11

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GRAND RAPIDS (3 - 6) at COLUMBUS (5 - 4) - 5/11/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GRAND RAPIDS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
GRAND RAPIDS is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GRAND RAPIDS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
GRAND RAPIDS is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 1-1 against the spread versus GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 1-1 straight up against GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) at ORLANDO (5 - 4) - 5/11/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 2-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COLORADO (6 - 4) at NASHVILLE (4 - 6) - 5/11/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 4-1 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (8 - 1) at DALLAS (9 - 1) - 5/11/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
DALLAS is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Short Sheet

NBA
Short Sheet


Friday, May 11th

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Western Conference Playoffs
Semifinals, Game Three
Utah Leads, 2-0
TV: ESPN
Utah at Golden State, 9:05 EST

Utah:
5-15 ATS off BB home wins
14-27 ATS off ATS wins in 3 of their last 4 games

Golden State:
11-3 ATS at home off a loss by 10+ points
8-1 ATS at home off BB road games

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[pm530]

Hockey – Short Sheet

NHL
Short Sheet


Friday, May 11th

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Western Conference Playoffs
Finals, Game One
Series Tied, 0-0
TV: VER
Anaheim at Detroit, 7:35 EST

Anaheim:
4-20 SU at Detroit
5-10 SU playing with 3+ days rest

Detroit:
14-5 SU off 3+ Unders
9-2 SU off a road win by 2+ goals

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