Wednesday Trends and Indexes 04/11

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Wednesday, April 11th

National League

St. Louis at Pittsburgh, 12:35 EST
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Paul Maholm (L)
Wainwright: StL 42-20 in day games
Maholm: Pit 18-41 in day games

Houston at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 EST WGN
Wandy Rodriguez (L) vs. Rich Hill (L)
Rodriguez: 5-1 TSR in April
Hill: ChC 13-24 as a home favorite of -150 to -200

Milwaukee at Florida, 7:05 EST
David Bush (R) vs. Sergio Mitre (R)
Bush: 9-27 TSR in road games
Mitre: Fla 16-6 Under playing with a day off

Philadelphia at NY Mets, 7:10 EST
Adam Eaton (R) vs. Oliver Perez (L)
Eaton: Phi 6-15 after a game where they blew a save
Perez: NYM 17-4 at home playing with a day off

Washington at Atlanta, 7:35 EST
Jerome Williams (R) vs. Chuck James (L)
Williams: Wash 14-43 Away when the total is 9 to 9.5
James: Atl 11-1 Over after a win by 8+ runs

Cincinnati at Arizona, 9:40 EST
Matt Belisle (R) vs. Micah Owings (R)
Belisle: Cin 3-17 Away after a one run loss
Owings: Ari 14-2 off BB wins by 2 runs or less

San Francisco at San Diego, 10:05 EST
Noah Lowry (L) vs. Greg Maddux (R)
Lowry: SF 5-1 Under vs. right-handed starters
Maddux: 6-17 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175

Colorado at LA Dodgers, 10:10 EST
Jason Hirsh (R) vs. Brad Penny (R)
Hirsh: Col 7-23 after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less
Penny: 15-2 Over in home starts


American League

Chicago White Sox at Oakland, 3:35 EST
Mark Buehrle (L) vs. Joe Kennedy (L)
Buehrle: 3-12 TSR vs. Oakland
Kennedy: 8-1 TSR at home in April

LA Angels vs. Cleveland, 7:05 EST in Milwaukee, WI
Joe Saunders (L) vs. Jake Westbrook (R)
Saunders: 10-2 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10
Westbrook: 15-5 Over when the money line is -100 to -150

Detroit at Baltimore, 7:05 EST
Justin Verlander (R) vs. Adam Loewen (L)
Verlander: Det 14-2 as a road favorite of -125 to -150
Loewen: Bal 57-82 off BB home games

Seattle at Boston, 7:05 EST
Felix Hernandez (R) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) ESPN
Hernandez: Sea 1-12 off BB losses by 4+ runs
Matsuzaka: Bos 55-19 at home off BB errorless games

Kansas City at Toronto, 7:05 EST
Jorge De La Rosa (L) vs. Gustavo Chacin (L)
De La Rosa: KC 6-0 Under as an underdog of +125 to +175
Chacin: 14-1 TSR as a home favorite of -110 or higher

Tampa Bay at Texas, 8:05 EST
James Shields (R) vs. Robinson Tejada (R)
Shields: TB 12-47 Away vs. right-handed starters
Tejada: Tex 6-1 Over at home vs. Tampa Bay

New York at Minnesota, 8:10 EST
Mike Mussina (R) vs. Ramon Ortiz (R)
Mussina: 31-14 Under when the total is 10 or higher
Ortiz: Min 42-18 at home off BB home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB
Hot Lines


Wednesday, April 11


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Detroit at Baltimore: Orioles +124

The Tigers bats are really struggling early in the season, especially on the road. Detroit batters are hitting just .217 away from home, where the Tigers are 3-2. Their results have come against Baltimore and Kansas City, and they have managed just three runs per game.

Detroit now faces a Baltimore team that has won its last three games against right-handed starters and is 3-2 against righties overall. This isn’t anything new for the Orioles – they finished third in the majors in batting average against right-handers last season at .284.

Right-hander Justin Verlander is pitching for Detroit tonight. Left-hander Adam Loewen is pitching for Baltimore.





Seattle at Boston: Mariners +147

You gotta fade Daisuke Matsuzaka, especially when he is favored and is potentially the inferior pitcher in tonight’s matchup.

Felix Hernandez was unbelievable for Seattle in his first start of the season, allowing just three hits and two walks (no runs) in eight innings against Oakland on opening day while striking out 12.

Hernandez has also had nine days of rest between his first start and his second because Seattle had an entire series cancelled in Cleveland over the weekend. That might be a negative midway through the season when a pitcher has established a rhythm, but it’s definitely a positive just two weeks in, especially after throwing 111 pitches in his first start.

Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has to face a real major league team for the first time in his career. In his first start, he was able to shut down a Kansas City team that is averaging just 3.2 runs per game, but the Royals don’t count.






Milwaukee at Florida: Marlins -104

No respect for the 5-2 Marlins at home? Must be pitcher Sergio Mitre. The 26-year-old right-hander took the loss in his first start of the season, but things weren’t as bad as advertised. He did allow five runs in just five innings of an 8-2 loss against Philadelphia, but just one of those runs were earned, and Mitre struck out six against just one walk.

Florida and Milwaukee are also in a unique situation tonight. A new rule that began this year means the teams will finish last night’s game before tonight’s starts. The teams will begin in the top of the 11th inning with the score tied 2-2. The game was suspended last night because of rain. They would have replayed the entire game under the old rules.

Dave Bush will start for Milwaukee once the second game gets going.





Yankees at Minnesota: Twins +128

Don’t expect Minnesota’s bats to lay dormant for an entire series, especially with Mike Mussina taking the mound tonight. Mussina clearly didn’t have it in his first start this year, allowing six runs and eights hits while uncharacteristically walking three in just four innings of a 6-4 loss to Baltimore. He is getting favorable odds based on his past success and the Yankees’ reputation.

The Twins have just three runs and 11 hits in the first two games of the series (both losses) but the Twins were the best hitting team in baseball last year and are in good hands tonight with Ramon Ortiz on the mound.

Ortiz allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings in his first start of the season against Baltimore. He also struck out four while walking just one.

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet


Wednesday, April 11th

Washington at Miami, 7:35 EST
Washington: 14-7 ATS at Miami
Miami: 11-2 Under as a home underdog

Philadelphia at Boston, 7:35 EST
Philadelphia: 15-30 ATS off a SU win as an underdog
Boston: 13-4 ATS playing on back-to-back days

Orlando at Detroit, 8:05 EST ESPN
Orlando: 13-4 Under vs. Central Division
Detroit: 6-3 ATS vs. Orlando

Indiana at Milwaukee, 8:05 EST
Indiana: 4-14 ATS off BB ATS losses
Milwaukee: 7-0 Over playing with same season triple revenge

Sacramento at San Antonio, 8:05 EST
Sacramento: 19-37 ATS Away off a SU win
San Antonio: 13-2 Under after scoring 105+ points BB games

Dallas at Minnesota, 8:05 EST
Dallas: 10-3 ATS after allowing 90 points or less 3 straight games
Minnesota: 3-13 ATS off 3+ Overs

Denver at Utah, 9:05 EST
Denver: 19-6 ATS playing with same season revenge
Utah: 4-12 ATS after a blowout loss by 20+ points

Seattle at Phoenix, 10:05 EST
Seattle: 26-13 Over off a home loss
Phoenix: 14-6 ATS playing with revenge

Houston at Portland, 10:05 EST
Houston: 16-6 ATS playing their 3rd road game in 5 days
Portland: n/a

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Dennis14072]

Thanks Guys, GL tonight!

[Udog]

NP, Dennis! Good luck, buddy!

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel


Denver at Utah
The Nuggets have won six straight, including the last three road games in which the Nuggets are a perfect 3-0 against the spread. Overall Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games away from home. Utah, meanwhile, is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games and 1-9 ATS overall in its last 10. The Nuggets look like a good underdog pick (+1) in this one according to Dunkel, which has Denver favored straight up by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+1). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 11

Game 501-502: Washington at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 115.571; Miami 119.068
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 197 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Philadelphia at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 117.702; Boston 116.184
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 187 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 182 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+1 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Orlando at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 120.132; Detroit 122.526
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 5; 185
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+5); Over

Game 507-508: Indiana at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.762; Milwaukee 110.652
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 204 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 199
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4); Over

Game 509-510: Sacramento at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.775; San Antonio 133.623
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 20; 206
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 12 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-12 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Dallas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.841; Minnesota 117.475
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 198 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Denver at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.986; Utah 117.206
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 202 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 1; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+1); Under

Game 515-516: Seattle at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 116.819; Phoenix 125.134
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 14 1/2; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+14 1/2); Under

Game 517-518: Houston at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.372; Portland 118.262
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 184 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 180
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6 1/2); Over

[pm530]

MLB
Tips and Trends
Additional games added


Wednesday, April 11

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Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (7:05 PM ET)
Tigers outfielder Curtis Granderson is hitting .382 with eight extra-base hits, including three homers and five RBIs in eight lifetime games versus the Orioles. EDGE: TIGERS
The Orioles are batting just .224 as a team thus far, but are 16-for-58 (.276) with runners in scoring position. SLIGHT EDGE: UNDER
Baltimore starter Adam Loewen has never faced the Tigers, who are batting .185 (5-for-27) against lefties. EDGE: ORIOLES


Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians (7:05 PM ET)
Cleveland starter Jake Westbrook is 2-4 with a 3.27 ERA in six career starts against the Angels, but threw a nine-hit shutout in his last start against them on Aug. 9. EDGE: INDIANS
Los Angeles starter Joe Saunders only previous start against the Indians came on July 18, when he gave up one earned run in seven innings of a 7-5 win. EDGE: ANGELS
The UNDER is 10-2-3 in the Angels last 14 games versus the American League Central.
The UNDER is 6-1-1 in the Indians last eight games versus a left-handed starter.


New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (8:10 PM ET)
Minnesota starter Ramon Ortiz signed a one-year deal with the Twins this offseason and is 0-3 with a 7.90 ERA in five starts at the Metrodome. He is 3-1 with a 4.73 ERA in 12 career appearances, including nine starts against the Yankees. EDGE: OVER
New York starter Mike Mussina is 20-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 28 career starts against Minnesota, but has gone 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA in his last four outings against them. SLIGHT EDGE: YANKEES
The UNDER is 4-0 in Mussina's last four starts versus the Twins.


Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won every series they've played against the Colorado Rockies since the start of last season, as they look to make it seven straight tonight. BIG EDGE: DODGERS
Dodgers starter Brad Penny was 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA in six starts against the Rockies last season and holding them to one run or less three times. EDGE: DODGERS & OVER
The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
The OVER is 19-7-1 in umpire Chris Guccione's last 27 games behind home plate.

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[pm530]

NBA
Tips and trends
Additional game added


Wednesday, April 11

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Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons (ESPN | 8 PM ET)
The Pistons need one win to secure the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and hope to obtain a season series sweep of the Orlando Magic in the process. EDGE: PISTONS
Detroit is 3-0 against Orlando this season, holding the Magic to 86.7 points per game. EDGE: PISTONS & UNDER
Orlando is on its best two-game offensive run this season, having shot 62.5 percent in a 117-94 victory on Monday night, which followed a 58.2 percent performance on Saturday night. EDGE: MAGIC & OVER
Magic center Dwight Howard is averaging 23.7 points and shooting 62.5 percent in three games against the Pistons this season. EDGE: MAGIC
The road team is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Detroit.

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