Kaptains "What's the Odds....." Trivia Question for March Madness

[Kaptain]

Here's a lil trivia for you guys.........

Whats the Odds of correctly predicting the outcome of "every" game in the NCAA Tournament.........

give it your best shot.........

Answer_____________________________________

Note to Mods----you may want to move this, but I wanted everyone to see it.........I'll give you the answer, if not correctly guessed, by 7:00 tonight (Central Time)..........kapt

[KINGNEIL]

9,000,000,000,000,000,000-1

[BettorsChat]

0%

[LSUTyger]

1 in a trillion.

[KINGNEIL]

mine is the correct answer

[Shaun32]

depends how much jameson irish whiskey you have to share.

[GrandPa]

Astronomical.

One has a better chance of :

1) Being struck by lightning
2) Making a hole-in-one
3) winning a state lottery
4) being the father of Anna Nicole Smith's baby
5) finding a needle in a haystack
6) Guessing the correct # of jellybeans in a jar

[molta02]

impossible

[RDOG55]

5,700,000,000 to 1

[Shaun32]

shit, i dont have any jameson. how about 9223372036854775808 to 1

[Kaptain]

Shaun32

shit, i dont have any jameson. how about 9223372036854775808 to 1

That is correct...heres how it should show.......

1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808.........

That computes to 18 zeros behind the main #, or in essence...

1 in 9 Quintillion.....

King Neil you had er right, you just rounded it off.....it's 1 in 9 billion billion.........

Here's a comparison to the odds........

If you took a spaceship to the Sun, 93 million miles away, and back again to earth, and you filled out a different bracket for every mile you traveled, you would need to make the trip 10 billion times, before you were likely to get the bracket entirely right....

UN BELIEVABLE...........hope ypou enjoyed it..........kapt

[KINGNEIL]

Thanks for the post Kapt. I remember reading those odds years back. Very interesting info.....

[RDOG55]

I read this in the USA Today last Monday

I was looking for this article and finally found this excerpt...


"And while you're filling out your bracket, keep in mind you have a 1 in 5.7 billion chance of correctly predicting every game in the NCAA Tournament."

Here is the link to the whole article...


http://www.usatoday.com/sports/colle...ket-tips_x.htm

[Tomorrows Paper]

There's an inherent problem in the question, and I can make a case for a couple answers.

In a very basic sense, and assuming each result is a 50/50 proposition, Shaun's answer is correct.

The problem is that there are other variables, because it is not a simple math question. Most importantly, most games are obviously not 50/50 propositions. Also, some games are not independent - for example, picking Team X as the national champions means that the other five wins are already given. All teams are not 32-1 to win the national championship.
Also, the proficiency of the person picking the bracket must be considered. There really is no "correct" answer.

[Kaptain]

Tomorrows Paper

There's an inherent problem in the question, and I can make a case for a couple answers.

In a very basic sense, and assuming each result is a 50/50 proposition, Shaun's answer is correct.

The problem is that there are other variables, because it is not a simple math question. (((((Most importantly, most games are obviously not 50/50 propositions.))))))) Also, some games are not independent - for example, picking Team X as the national champions means that the other five wins are already given. All teams are not 32-1 to win the national championship.
Also, the proficiency of the person picking the bracket must be considered. There really is no "correct" answer.

This is the key statement.....

Using the "K" factor of "every fan has a 1 in 2 chance of picking the correct winner.....Providing the teams have an equal chance of winning, of which you know thats not so.......some teams are obviously better than others (#1 vs #16), giving you an advantage in your picks.......

But, it doesn't help much.........

Even if you somehow could cut the odds in 1/2, it's still an astronomical # to beat........

I guess I should have used the phraseology of.....

"assuming all teams have an equal (50-50)" chance, which in a way they do, then this would have been more fun....

I think the proficiency of the capper is indeed an asset, and mitigates these odds..........

Now my question to you, is what are the odds, for a 5 year old, or someone totaly indifferent or ignorant to BasketBall, and seedings.............

It's exactly as I showed it above............because it now is a 50-50 proposition.......kapt