Friday Trends and Indexes 03/16

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel


Buffalo at Tampa Bay
The Sabres were able to snap their four-game losing streak last night against Florida, but must turn around tonight and face Tampa Bay with their two prolific scorers in Vincent Lecavalier (94 points) and Martin St. Louis (92 points). The Lightning, who trail Atlanta by only two points in the Southeast, will be playing their first home game in more than two weeks and look like a good underdog pick in this one according to Dunkel, which has Tampa Bay favored straight up by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, MARCH 16
Time Posted: 9:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Toronto at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 12.498; Washington 10.488
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-1 1/2); Over

Game 53-54: NY Rangers at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.723; Atlanta 13.058
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+1 1/2); Under

Game 55-56: Montreal at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.493; Pittsburgh 13.117
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-1 1/2); Over

Game 57-58: Buffalo at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.504; Tampa Bay 12.607
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1 1/2); Under

Game 59-60: Chicago at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.748; Anaheim 13.551
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-1 1/2); Over

Game 61-62: Columbus at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.741; San Jose 13.897
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-1 1/2); Under

[meaiken]

Thanks for you work guys, here's my contribution


Dunkel Index trends I found in round 1


Dunkel Index favorites went 9-7 ATS
Vegas Line Favs went 13-2-1 ATS


***If the Line as the favorite the that is opposite of Vegas's favorite, the Vegas favorite is 4-0 ATS
EXAMPLE:
Dunkel had Texas Tech -1, line was BC -3


***If the Dunkel line was lower than the Higher than the Vegas line, then the Vegas line Fav went 7-0-1 ATS
EXAMPLE:
Dunkel had Maryland -10.5, line was MD -6.5


***If the Dunkel Line was lower than the Vegas line, then the Vegas line fav went 2-2 ATS. Vandy and Pitt were winners, Duke and Ohios State were losers (depending on the line you got you may have pushed or won with OSU)
EXAMPLE:
Dunkel had Duke -5, Vegas had Duke -6.5



The Vegas Lines I went by werethe ones posted with the Dunkel lines.

[Udog]

NHL
Long Sheet


Friday, March 16


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TORONTO (34-27-0-9, 77 pts.) at WASHINGTON (24-34-0-13, 61 pts.) - 3/16/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 10-7 ATS (+21.6 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 19-16 ATS (+41.0 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
TORONTO is 19-16 ATS (+41.0 Units) as a road favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
TORONTO is 19-16 ATS (+41.0 Units) in road games against the puck line this season.
TORONTO is 17-13 ATS (+34.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
TORONTO is 11-5 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 8-3 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest this season.
WASHINGTON is 24-47 ATS (-41.8 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 24-47 ATS (+88.0 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
WASHINGTON is 24-47 ATS (+24.0 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
WASHINGTON is 8-24 ATS (-16.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 13-24 ATS (+39.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 3-12 ATS (+16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-3 (+2.7 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-3-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.6 Units)




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NY RANGERS (34-28-0-8, 76 pts.) at ATLANTA (37-25-0-10, 84 pts.) - 3/16/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 15-22 ATS (-11.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
NY RANGERS are 3-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-3 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-3-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)



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MONTREAL (35-30-0-6, 76 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (39-22-0-9, 87 pts.) - 3/16/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 39-31 ATS (+79.6 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 39-31 ATS (+6.6 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
PITTSBURGH is 39-31 ATS (+39.0 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
PITTSBURGH is 23-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 14-3 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-3 (+3.9 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-3-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+5.1 Units)




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BUFFALO (45-19-0-6, 96 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (39-28-0-4, 82 pts.) - 3/16/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 21-11 ATS (+5.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games this season.
BUFFALO is 108-62 ATS (+19.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 108-62 ATS (+19.8 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 108-62 ATS (+19.8 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 52-33 ATS (+18.3 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 52-33 ATS (+18.3 Units) as a road favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 52-33 ATS (+18.3 Units) in road games against the puck line over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 49-31 ATS (+17.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 25-9 ATS (+9.6 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
BUFFALO is 48-34 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 135-113 ATS (+249.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 6-1 (+4.7 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 6-1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)




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CHICAGO (27-34-0-9, 63 pts.) at ANAHEIM (42-17-0-12, 96 pts.) - 3/16/2007, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 79-81 ATS (+187.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 14-16 ATS (-21.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
ANAHEIM is 18-16 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 5-1 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 5-1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.6 Units)




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COLUMBUS (28-35-0-7, 63 pts.) at SAN JOSE (43-25-0-3, 89 pts.) - 3/16/2007, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 36-37 ATS (+93.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 15-17 ATS (+46.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
COLUMBUS is 20-18 ATS (+53.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 9-14 ATS (+9.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 4-7 ATS (-8.4 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 4-3-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.5 Units)
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[Udog]

from meaiken: "here's my contribution"

Man, tracking that took some work, didn't it? Thank you, meaiken!! Good luck this weekend!

[pm530]

NCAAB
Dunkel Index - NIT

FRIDAY, MARCH 16

Game 651-652: Marist at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 56.251; NC State 71.390
Dunkel Line: NC State by 15
Vegas Line: NC State by 7
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-7)

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet


Friday, March 16th

Toronto at Washington, 7:05 EST
Toronto: 8-3 SU away playing with two days rest
Washington: 0-9 SU off a road loss by 1 goal

NY Rangers at Atlanta, 7:35 EST
NY Rangers: 9-4 SU at Atlanta
Atlanta: 1-8 SU after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

Montreal at Pittsburgh, 7:35 EST
Montreal: 2-8 SU on Friday nights
Pittsburgh: 18-6 SU off 3+ games scoring 3+ goals

Buffalo at Tampa Bay, 8:05 EST
Buffalo: 22-6 SU off a road win scoring 4+ goals
Tampa Bay: 1-6 SU vs. Buffalo

Chicago at Anaheim, 10:05 EST
Chicago: 3-13 SU at Anaheim
Anaheim: 25-11 SU revenging a loss by 1 goal

Columbus at San Jose, 10:35 EST
Columbus: 1-18 SU away off a combined score of 9+ goals
San Jose: 10-1 SU revenging a loss by 3+ goals

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

So far, the trends crew likes Memphis-18 and Wisconsin-12.5.

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet


Friday, March 16th

LA Clippers at Charlotte, 7:05 EST
LA Clippers: 1-9 ATS off BB Unders
Charlotte: 16-7 ATS playing with revenge

Utah at Philadelphia, 7:05 EST
Utah: 22-8 ATS off BB ATS losses
Philadelphia: 1-9 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

Houston at Toronto, 7:05 EST
Houston: 2-11 ATS after a combined score of 205+ points
Toronto: 14-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

New Orleans at New York, 7:35 EST
New Orleans: 18-5 ATS after a non-conference game
New York: 13-27 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

Sacramento at Miami, 7:35 EST
Sacramento: 3-16 ATS vs. Miami
Miami: 14-5 ATS 2nd half of season

Boston at Dallas, 8:30 EST
Boston: 21-7 ATS as a road underdog
Dallas: 15-5 Under after a loss by 3 points or less

Detroit at Phoenix, 10:05 EST
Detroit: 4-13 ATS after allowing 75 points or less
Phoenix: 17-4 ATS playing 6 or less games in 14 days

Portland at LA Lakers, 10:35 EST
Portland: 7-15 ATS playing their 3rd game in 4 days
LA Lakers: 2-11 ATS off a loss by 20+ points

Minnesota at Golden State, 10:35 EST
Minnesota: 8-1 Under as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points
Golden State: 5-13 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100+ points

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

The trends crew has added Creighton+1.5.

[pm530]

NBA
Write-up


Friday, March 16

Hot Teams
-- Bobcats won last two games, scoring 115 ppg.
-- 76ers are 6-2-1 vs spread in their last nine games.
-- Houston won four of its last five games. Raptors won its last four games, by 7,1,15,10 points.
-- Miami won its last eight games (7-1 vs spread).
-- Knicks are 14-1 vs spread in game after last fifteen losses.
-- Celtics won six of their last nine games.
-- Detroit won, covered last four games. Phoenix won six in row, eleven of last twelve games.
-- Warriors won four of last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Clippers lost last five games, by 14,10,18,9,4 points.
-- Utah lost last two games, scoring 88 ppg.
-- Kings lost last four games, by 7,12,24,3 points.
-- Hornets lost their last six games (2-4 vs spread).
-- Dallas lost last two games, after winning previous 17.
-- Minnesota is 1-10 vs spread in last eleven games.
-- Lakers lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread). Portland lost six of its last eight games.

Series Records
-- Bobcats lost 100-93 at Staples Feb 26 (+8.5).
-- 76ers lost 98-87 at Utah Jan 3 (+11).
-- Raptors won 106-90 in Houston Feb 28 (+5).
-- Miami won 93-91 in OT at Sacramento Dec 7 (+5.5).
-- Hornets beat Knicks twice last year, both by 11 points.
-- Dallas beat Celtics twice last year, 104-102/103-94.
-- Suns won 108-101 in Detroit Dec 31 (-6).
-- Minnesota beat Warriors twice this season, 122-101/121-93.
-- Portland is 2-0 vs Lakers this season: 101-90/112-108.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Bobcats are 10-4-1 vs spread on front end of their last fifteen back/backs.
-- Utah covered front end of four of last five back/backs.
-- Miami covered four of its last five if they played nite before.
-- Hornets are 6-4 vs spread on front end of last 10 back/backs.
-- Celtics covered front end on five of last six back/backs.
-- Suns are 8-3 vs spread on front end of last 11 back/backs.
-- Warriors are 2-6 vs spread on front end of last 8 back/backs.
-- Lakers are 7-5 vs spread if they played night before.

Totals
-- Eight of last nine Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in Utah's last ten games.
-- Four of last five Houston games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Knick games.
-- Over is 10-5 in Celtics' last fifteen games.
-- Under is 6-2 in last eight Phoenix games.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Warrior games.
-- Six of last nine Laker games stayed under the total.

[pm530]

NHL
Write up


Friday, March 16

Hot Teams
-- Toronto won three of its last four games.
-- Canadiens won last two games, scoring nine goals. Penguins won five of their last six games.
-- Thrashers won six of their last eight games.
-- Lightning won six of last eight home games.
-- Anaheim won five of its last six games. Chicago won four of its last five games.
-- Sharks won five of last six games, allowing four goals.

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost last nine games, outscored 39-16.
-- Rangers lost two of last three games; they scored two goals in each of their last five games.
-- Sabres lost four of their last five games.
-- Columbus lost last two games, scoring one goal.

Series Records
-- Leafs are 2-1 vs Washington this season: 3-0/7-1/2-3.
-- Home side won all three Montreal-Pittsburgh games this year
-- Road team is 3-0 in Atlanta-Ranger games this season.
-- Sabres are 2-1 vs Tampa Bay this season: 2-3/4-1/7-2.
-- Road team won both Anaheim-Chicago games this season.
-- Sharks are 2-1 vs San Jose this season: 3-0/0-3/5-2.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Toronto is 6-3 on front end of last nine back/backs.
-- Montreal is 1-8 on front end of last nine back/backs.
-- Atlanta is 4-7 last 11 times they played night before.
-- Sabres are 3-6 last nine times they played night before.
-- Chicago is 1-6 last seven times they played night before.
-- San Jose is 8-2 if it played the night before.

Totals
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Toronto games.
-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Montreal games.
-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Atlanta games.
-- Over is 9-3 in last twelve Buffalo games.
-- Six of last seven Chicago games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-3 in last twelve Columbus games.

[Dennis14072]

Thanks Guys!

[Udog]

NP, Dennis! I hope you're faring better than I am today! Good luck tonight.


Memphis -18.
Wisconsin-12.5
Creighton+1.5

Man! What a butt kickin'.
To be perfectly fair, I want to say that PM didn't pick any of this garbage. I did.
I think PM faded again today.
We've been staying away from first round games, for the most part, and I should have stayed with the plan!
One last try on tonight's NIT game. NC State-7.

[Dennis14072]

Lost big early, made it back second set of games, gl tonight!

[pm530]

Friday afternoon's list of 13: Tournament observations.......

13) Favorites went 13-3 vs spread Thursday, bad news for a nitwit like myself, who prefers underdogs in this event; only dog to actually win was VCU- other two covers were by #16 seeds who were both getting hammered at one point.

12) George Washington, Wright State both got in solely due to winning its conference tournament; they were both awful in losses Thursday. Teams that got upset in the tournaments, Butler and Xavier, both had good wins in first round. There's a lesson to be learned in there.

11) Someone needs to schedule Corpus Christi against Marist next year, so Scooby Johnson can guard Spongy Benjamin.

10) No coach/school are more mismatched than Lon Kruger and UNLV; its like having Spike Lee coach the Utah Jazz.. No wonder rumors have Kruger going to Minnesota next season.

9) No team has ever lost first game in the conference tourney and gone on to win a national title. UCLA lost its first game in Pac-10 tourney, if you care about such things.

8) I pay $70 to watch every game on dish, but somehow, they don't show the first 7:00 of Winthrop-Notre Dame game. How is it we can put man on moon, but CBS can't figure out how to show every game? It can't be that difficult.

7) OK, I figured it out; you get the three games that aren't on local TV on the dish; they stay on all the time. Problems are when the game on local TV gets taken off, then DirecTV does not pick it up on the satellite. Wound up seeing only half of Winthrop game, although at least they hung on to win.

6) Unlike Long Beach State, who offered about the same level of resistence as Jenna Jameson in one of her movies; none at all. Tennessee worked harder in layup lines than they did in this 121-86 ass-kicking. I enjoyed watching the 49ers the last couple years, but they were awful today, then went in tank.

5) Wisconsin was even worse for a half, but as a 2 seed, they were facing a team almost incapable of beating them. At one point, Wisconsin trailed 40-22 against a team that didn't exist nine years ago. Unless Badgers play ten times better Sunday, they're going down to the Runnin' Rebels.

4) Nevada coach Mark Fox looks like he hates refs; when his Wolf Pack lost to Utah State in WAC semis, he took off after the buzzer to go find the refs, which he apparently did, with a string of expletives soon following. His mood doesn't seem to be a lot better today.

Nevada-Creighton, by the way, has been, by far, best first round game of the 24 played so far. Two good teams playing at high level in close game, with Lundquist/Raftery on mike.

3) This seems like good time to mention that is is snowing so hard here, they cancelled the St Patrick's Day Parade; you get Irishmen to cancel a party, there is a genuine weather crisis, and I am half-Irish. By the way, I hate living here.

2) Oregon falls behind 9-0 early to Miami, OH, then goes on a scary 20-0 run; the Ducks are pretty darned good, but they're also streaky as hell, and not that great inside. They survived a gritty bunch of Miami Red Hawks, leading by five before a half-court heave by Miami went in at the buzzer.

1) Final tallies for the early games: favorites are either 16-7-1 or 17-7, depending on line you got with Wisconsin; under is 13-11, with one more set of first round games left. Favorites were 4-4 this afternoon, over also 4-4.