Monday Trends and Indexes 03/05

[pm530]

NBA
Short Sheet


Monday, March 5th

Milwaukee at Orlando, 7:05 EST NBATV
Milwaukee: 18-5 ATS after scoring 120+ points
Orlando: 16-32 ATS vs. Central Division opponents

Houston at Cleveland, 7:05 EST
Houston: 25-12 Over as a road underdog of 6 points or less
Cleveland: 11-3 ATS in the second half of the season

Golden State at Detroit, 7:35 EST
Golden State: 11-20 ATS after scoring 105+ points
Detroit: 11-2 ATS at home vs. Pacific Division opponents

Atlanta at Miami, 7:35 EST
Atlanta: 34-16 Over off a loss by 6 points or less
Miami: 4-15 ATS at home off BB wins

Charlotte at Utah, 9:05 EST
Charlotte: 15-3 ATS off BB games scoring 90 points or less
Utah: 4-14 ATS at home off a win by 10+ points

San Antonio at LA Clippers, 10:35 EST
San Antonio: 18-6 Under off 4+ wins by 10+ points
LA Clippers: 8-17 ATS playing with revenge

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[pm530]

NHL
Short Sheet


Monday, March 5th

NY Islanders at NY Rangers, 7:05 EST VER
NY Islanders: 5-1 SU away after scoring 5+ goals
NY Rangers: 0-5 SU at home revenging a loss allowing 5+ goals

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NCAAB
Additional


11 Bracket Picking Rules You Shouldnt Break!

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats span from 1985 (the year the tournament expanded to 64 teams) to present.

1st Round:

* Be very selective picking any team below a #12 seed.
#16 seeds are 0 for 88. #15 seeds are 4 for 88. #13 and #14 seeds are less than 19% combined.

* Dont be shy about picking upsets when #12 through #9 seeds are involved
Look especially hard at picking #12 seeds; they have won 11 of 24 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last six years. #9 seeds have a winning record vs. #8 seeds.

2nd Round:
* Advance #1 seeds almost automatically they win their first two games 86% of the time.

* Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds).

* Rarely pick a #13 seed or lower to win in Round Two.
Only 9% of teams advancing past Round Two are seeded that low.

Sweet 16:
* Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8
No reason to buck the math: 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (thats a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!

* Advance no team lower than a #12 seed into the Elite 8
NOT ONE has ever advanced!

Elite Eight:
* Advance ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years.

* Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 2 of 88 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.

Final Four:
* Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game.
Not a single one has made it in the last 21 years.

Championship Game:
* Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all.
For 18 straight years the champion has been a 4 seed or higher!


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5 Team Factors That Matter the Most



#1) Margin of Victory
Statistically speaking, this factor matters twice as much as the second most important factor so ignore at your own risk. Margin of victory is simply the average number of points that a team wins or loses by. Why is this important? Because with only 30 or so games a year, getting lucky in even a handful of close games can make a team look much better record-wise than it truly is. But if a team consistently wins by large margins, you can be more certain youve got a real winner. The key number is 15; teams whose margin of victory is greater than 15 points do exceedingly well in the NCAA Tournament.



#2) Coaching Experience
The Big Dance is an entirely different experience than the regular season, requiring a different approach from the coach. It makes sense that a coach who is new to the Tournament wouldnt know as well how to handle it. The numbers strongly back up this rationale: The average number of tourney appearances for coaches in the tournament is 5.6; the average for teams reaching the Final Four is 9.3 coaching appearances; the average for the team who wins it all is 11.5 coaching appearances (more than double the tournament average). Avoid rookie tourney coaches, and stick with the old lions who have seen it all before.



#3) Team Experience
The Big Dance is not just different for the coaches, its different for the entire organization and having tourney experience is key. This concept extends even beyond the players. Consider all the details that need to be handled, from travel plans, to the type of hotels to stay at, to what equipment the trainer needs to bring. And dont underestimate the intangible of confidence a player walking onto the court knowing that he belongs on the biggest stage. That only comes with experience. The average number of consecutive tourney appearances for teams in the tournament is 3; the average for teams reaching the Final Four is more than double that!



#4) Having a superstar to count on
Since 1979, every NCAA champion except one has had at least one All-American; thats an amazing 27 out of 28 years! The logic makes perfect sense: the tourney is a rollercoaster that requires an on-the-floor leader. On the way to winning six straight games a team will likely face a number of make or break situations, and having the alpha dog on the floor in those spots makes all the difference.


#5) Reliable front court scoring
Centers and Forwards who play near the basket account for front court scoring, and their play is usually a difference maker especially for teams looking to advance deep into the tournament. Relying upon outside shooting is a losing proposition during the Big Dance: first, because the games are played in unfamiliar, spacious arenas, typically with difficult shooting backgrounds. Second, even if great shooters are able to overcome these disadvantages, doing so game after game after game is typically too much to ask. A cold night is bound to happen and it only takes one to be eliminated. Front court scoring, on the other hand, involves lay-ups and slam dunks, shots that are not as affected by surroundings or nerves. Teams who receive at least 60% of their scoring from the front court have historically over-achieved in the NCAA tournament. Stick with such teams, and you will to!

[pm530]

NCAAB
Tips and trends


Monday, March 5

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CAA Championship - George Mason at Virginia Commonwealth (ESPN | 7 PM ET)
Virginia Commonwealth swept the season series this year, beating Mason by double figures in each contest. The Rams hold a 24-14 edge in the all-time series. EDGE: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
No team has ever beaten the top three seeds in the same CAA tournament, which is what George Mason is trying to do. The Patriots had been 0-3 all-time as the No. 6 seed before this year but they are now 3-3. EDGE: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Automatic bid to NCAA Tournament on the line.

WCC Championship - Santa Clara at Gonzaga -(ESPN | 9 PM ET)
Gonzaga has won seven of the last eight WCC tournaments, with the streak interrupted only by San Diego in 2003. BIG EDGE: GONZAGA
The Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
Automatic bid to NCAA Tournament on the line.

MAAC Championship - Siena at Niagara (ESPN2 | 9 PM ET)
Siena swept Niagara this season, winning both games by double figures. The two teams have met three times in MAAC Tournament play, with the Saints winning two out of three meetings. EDGE: SIENA
The Saints have shot over 50 percent from the field in six of their last seven games. Siena is 13-0 when shooting over 50 percent this season. EDGE: SIENA
The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
The Saints are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Automatic bid to NCAA Tournament on the line.


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[GrandPa]

Great stuff as always.

Thanks

[Dennis14072]

Thanks guys!