Tuesday Trends and Indexes 01/30

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Tuesday, January 30


Good Luck on day #30 of 2007!


NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.

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[pm530]

Dunkel Index – Super Bowl XLI (February 4)

NFL
Dunkel Index - Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears


Sunday, February 4


Indianapolis vs. Chicago
There's a sense of relief for both teams simply making it to the Super Bowl. Indianapolis was able to finally get past New England in a big game with Peyton Manning delivering in the clutch. Chicago, after starting the season in a fashion that had people talking about a perfect season, was able to overcome a mid-season slump and Rex Grossman's erratic play to get its first playoff wins since 1995. Moreover both come into the game excelling at what they do best. The Colts' offense was unstoppable in the second half against New England, piling up 455 yards and scoring on six of their final eight drives to overcome an 18-point halftime deficit. The Bears' defense put the clamps on the much-publicized New Orleans ground attack, limiting Deuce McCallister and Reggie Bush to 37 rushing yards combined and 14 points. The big change for both will be leaving the home fields for Miami. Few teams played better at home than Indianapolis (10-0), but the road was a different story. Prior to the Colts' postseason win at Baltimore, they had lost four straight away from home, including a 44-17 setback in Jacksonville in Week 14. Chicago, by comparison, lost only once away from Soldier Field and that came by just four points at New England (17-13) in Week 12. The Bears are listed as a 7-point Vegas underdog, but that looks too high according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7).

Game 101-102: Indianapolis vs. Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.189; Chicago 135.162
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7); Under

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[pm530]

NFL – Long Sheet (February 4)

NFL
Long Sheet


Sunday, February 4

Super Bowl XLI

INDIANAPOLIS (15 - 4) vs. CHICAGO (15 - 3) - 2/4/2007, 6:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

NFL – Short Sheet (February 4)

NFL
Short Sheet


Sunday, February 4th

Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis vs. Chicago, 6:25 EST

Indianapolis:
13-3 Over away off 3+ ATS wins
40-21 Over away vs. winning teams

Chicago:
1-12 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
1-7 ATS off a turnover margin of +4 or better

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[pm530]

NFL - Tips and Trends (February 4)

NFL
Tips and Trends


Sunday, February 4

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears
Super Bowl XLI (CBS | 6:30 PM ET)
The Bears are feeding off their role as underdogs in the Super Bowl, and they have no issues proving they belong here and can win the biggest game of the year. "Anytime you're in an underdog role, you're that much more intense and focused and out for respect," said Chicago QB Rex Grossman, who may go down as the most scrutinized player in Super Bowl history due to his erratic play. AFC teams may have dominated their NFC counterparts during the regular season, but the Bears went 2-2, including a tough 17-13 loss at New England. EDGE: BEARS

While Grossman is at an obvious disadvantage against Indy counterpart Peyton Manning, insiders believe the key to this game will simply be turnovers. In Chicago's three losses this season, Grossman turned the ball over 12 times, with three interceptions and one fumble in each of those games. If he limits his turnovers and the Bears play up to their potential on defense and special teams, a straight-up win is not only possible, it's likely. EDGE: BEARS IF GOOD REX PLAYS, COLTS IF BAD REX PLAYS

Teams without a scoring defense ranked in the Top 8 at the end of the regular season have never won the Super Bowl. Indy ranked 23rd - allowing 22.5 points per game - while Chicago finished third. Even though Indy safety Bob Sanders has improved the team's run defense dramatically when he has played, the team does not play an opportunistic style and force many turnovers, creating just 32 compared to 47 for the Bears. BIG EDGE: BEARS

Some experts - along with the betting public - feel Manning finally has the monkey off his back of "failing to win the big game" and will thrive on the big stage in his first opportunity to win the Super Bowl. If anybody is due to win a championship, it's him. He never beat archrival Florida in college and has been linked to former Miami QB Dan Marino because of his statistical dominance yet lack of a title. Ironically, Manning may have more pressure on him to win this game than Grossman, but the public doesn't seem too worried. EDGE: COLTS

No touchdowns have been scored in the first quarter of the last five Super Bowls, and just 22 points total have been scored in the last seven combined. Nerves have definitely played a huge role early on as the two teams feel each other out offensively and defensively. BIG EDGE: UNDER

Chicago was a much better road team during the regular season, going 7-1 SU away from Soldier Field. Indy was 4-4, snapping a four-game road skid with an impressive 15-6 victory at Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs. The grass surface in Miami also favors the Bears because the Colts offense is much more explosive on the fast track of turf. EDGE: BEARS

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[pm530]

NFL – Additional trends (February 4)

NFL
Additional trends

Underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls and 4 of the last 5.

Over the last 11 Super Bowls favorites giving 7 points, or more, have gone 1-6-1 ATS.

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[pm530]

NFL – Preview (February 4)

NFL
Preview

Sunday, February 4

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts will meet Rex Grossman and the Chicago Bears on Sunday, February 4 in Super Bowl XLI at Dolphin Stadium in Miami.

Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as 7-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total is sitting at 48½.

The Colts defeated New England 38-34 in the AFC Championship Game as a 3.5-point favorite last time out. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (47).

Manning completed 27-of-47 passes for 349 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while also running in for a score. Dallas Clark led Indianapolis with six catches for 137 yards and Joseph Addai rushed for 56 yards on 14 carries with a touchdown.

The Bears defeated New Orleans 39-14 as a 3-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Thomas Jones rushed for 123 yards on only 19 carries and found the end zone twice for Chicago in the win. Grossman completed 11-of-26 passes for 144 yards with a touchdown and Bernard Berrian caught five passes for 85 yards and a touchdown.


Regular season records:
Indianapolis: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS
Chicago: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS

Indianapolis most recently:
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 9-1
After playing New England are 9-1

Chicago most recently:
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2
After playing New Orleans are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

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[pm530]

NFL
TREND SHEET

Sunday, February 4

INDIANAPOLIS vs. CHICAGO

• Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
  
• Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  
• Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  
• Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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[pm530]

NFL
BETTING TRENDS

Sunday, February 4

INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

CHICAGO
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

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[pm530]

NFL – Recent Trends

NFL
Recent Trends

Indianapolis:
Over is 7-2 in IND last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 8-3 in IND last 11 games on Grass.
IND are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.

Chicago:
Over is 10-1 in CHI last 11 home games.
Over is 13-3 in CHI last 16 games on Grass.
Over is 16-5-1 in CHI last 22 games overall.

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[pm530]

NFL – In Depth Trends

NFL
In Depth Trends

Trends - Indianapolis vs. Chicago

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Indianapolis
Colts are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Colts are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Colts are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.


Chicago
Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.


O/U Trends

Indianapolis
Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 playoff road games.
Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 playoff games.
Over is 7-2 in Colts last 9 games as a road favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 8-3 in Colts last 11 games on Grass.
Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 42-17-2 in Colts last 61 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 36-15-1 in Colts last 52 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


Chicago
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 playoff games.
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 playoff home games.
Over is 10-1-1 in Bears last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 10-1 in Bears last 11 home games.
Over is 8-1 in Bears last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1-1 in Bears last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 6-1-1 in Bears last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Bears last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 13-3 in Bears last 16 games on Grass.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 16-5-1 in Bears last 22 games overall.
Over is 6-2-1 in Bears last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games as a home underdog.
Over is 5-2-1 in Bears last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 39-18-2 in Bears last 59 games as an underdog.
Under is 45-21 in Bears last 66 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.


Head to Head
No trends available.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – write up

NCAAB
Write up


Tuesday, January 30

Visiting team won four of last five Notre Dame-Syracuse tilts, with teams splitting last two here. Irish are 0-3 on Big East road, losing 66-48/102-87/71-68 at Georgetown/Villanova/St John's. Syracuse lost last two games; they're 1-1 as a home favorite.

Mississippi State won six of last seven games vs Ole Miss; in first meeting this year, State won 77-67, outscoring Rebels 21-6 from foul line, holding them to 32.9% from floor. State is 0-2 on SEC road, losing by 8,4. Ole Miss won last two home games.

Northern Iowa won 63-59 at Wichita Dec 30; they're 6-2 in last eight games vs shockers, who won for first time in six games on road Saturday at Evansville. UNI lost last two games, scoring 57.5 ppg, but they're 4-1 at home in Valley, losing to Creighton.
Northern Illinois lost last six games (0-6 vs spread), with away losses, 63-62/71-60/76-60; Huskies lost to Miami last two years, 58-56/64-59. Red Hawks are 5-2 in MAC, 3-0 at home, 1-2 as fave winning home games 65-63 (Kent)/66-60 (BG)/72-69ot (Ohio)

Home side won last four Maryland-Florida State games, with Terps losing last two visits here, 71-60/79-75. Maryland is 0-3 on ACC road,, losing 73-62/103-91/67-64ot at BC/UVa/VaTech. FSU won last three home games, 82-73/86-67/74-66 (2-1 as home fave)

Evansville crushed Illinois State 69-41 Dec 9, holding ISU to 26.9% from floor, making 8-12 3's, but Aces are are 1-4 on road in Valley, with losses by 7,3,52,13 pts. Redbirds won three of last four home games; they're 1-1 as favorite in Valley games.

Home side won last four Georgia Tech-Wake Forest games, as Tech lost last two visits to Wake, 86-71/98-91; Jackets lost three games in row, by 16,15,8 points- they're 0-4 on ACC road. Wake lost last six games, all by 8+ points (1-5 vs spread in last six).

Home side won last three Colorado-Baylor games, with Buffs losing last visit here, 67-59; they beat Baylor twice LY, 81-48 at home, then 65-61 in Big 12 tourney. Both sides are 1-6 in Big 12, with Buffs 0-3 on road, losing 78-59/71-50/97-74 (1-2 road dog).

Illinois lost 63-57 at Michigan State Jan 14, shooting just 39% from floor; they're still 5-2 in last seven games vs Spartans, with wins in last two here, 60-50/75-51. State rallied from 20 down at half at Ohio St Sat, have Buckeyes again Sat, tough spot here.

UNLV won five of last six games vs Colorado State, winning last two visits here, 80-72/81-79. Rebels won last four games in MWC, but are 1-2 on road, winning 75-66 at TCU. Rams are 3-0 vs spread at home in conference, winning 73-57/90-78.

Home side won last six Wyoming-New Mexico games, as the Cowboys lost last three visits here, 47-45/89-75/87-75. Cowboys are 4-3 in MWC, 7-0 vs spread; they're 1-2 on road, winning by point at San Diego St, losing 89-81 at BYU, 62-60 at Utah. New Mexico is 1-6 in MWC, losing last three, by 5,21,4 points.

Home side won five of last six Marist-Manhattan games, with Red Foxes losing last three visits to Draddy, 90-79/86-54/92-67. Marist lost two of last three after 6-1 start; they're 3-2 on MAAC road. Jaspers are 7-3 in MAAC, but lost last two home games.

Elon lost 86-61 at Davidson Dec 1 (+17), their seventh loss in row vs Wildcats, who won 68-57 last time they visited. Elon lost last four home games, by 3,4,1,10 pts, as underdog covered all five of their SoCon home games. Davidson is 4-1 as road fave.

Home side won five of last six Tennessee St-Jacksonville St games, with Tigers losing two of last three visits to this site, by 77-75/93-69/86-70. TSU won last two road games; this is third game in five nights for both sides. Jax St won last two at home.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – write up

NBA
Write-up


Tuesday, January 30

Hot Teams
Pistons won four of their last five games. Wizards won six of their last seven games.
Indiana won three of its last four games.
Dallas is 22-2 in its last 24 games (3-5 vs spread in last eight).

Cold Teams
Cavaliers lost six of their last eight games; James has injured toe, is a ? here. Warriors lost six of last seven on road (3-4 vs spread).
Celtics lost their last eleven games (4-7 vs spread).
Miami lost three in row, five of last six games. Bucks are 1-6 in their last seven games.
Lakers lost four of their last five games, last two in overtime. Knicks lost five of their last seven games.
Seattle lost 12 in row on road, with last win on Nov. 22.

Series Records
Warriors lost in OT at home to Cleveland Jan 20, 106-104.
Pistons are 2-1 vs Wizards this year: 100-91/115-111/96-99.
Pacers, Celtics split pair of games in Boston this season.
Home side won four of last five Miami-Milwaukee games.
Lakers were 2-0 vs Knicks LY, 97-92/130-97.
Dallas is 2-0 vs Seattle this season, 103-95/112-88.

Back-to-Back Situations
Warriors are 7-4 vs spread on front end of back/back.
Pistons are 10-2 vs spread on front end of back/back.
Celtics are 2-8 vs spread on front end of back/back.
Miami is 2-7-1 vs spread on front end of back/back.
Lakers are 6-1 vs spread on front end of back/back.
Seattle is 4-1 vs spread on front end of back/back, if both of the games are on road.

Totals
Four of last five Warrior games went over the total.
Five of last six Wizard home games went over the total.
Under is 9-2 in Celtics' last eleven games.
Over is 7-4 in Miami's last eleven games.
Five of last six Knick games went over the total.
Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Dallas games.

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[pm530]

Hockey – write up

NHL
Write up


Tuesday, January 30

Hot Teams
Lightning won seven of its last nine games.
Maple Leafs won three of their last four games.
Devils are 7-0 in game following their last seven losses.
Senators won seven of their last nine games.
Florida won its last two games, 4-1/4-2. Penguins won three in row, five of last six games.
Nashville won four in row, ten of last eleven games.
St Louis won seven of its last nine games. Minnesota is 4-1 in its last five road games.
Columbus won four of its last five games. Canucks are 11-3 in their last fourteen games.
San Jose won five of its last seven games.

Cold Teams
Boston lost ten of its last thirteen games. Buffalo lost six of its last eight games.
Flyers lost nine of their last ten games.
Carolina lost three of its last four games.
Thrashers are 2-3 in their last five home games.
Washington lost five of its last seven games.
Red Wings lost three of last four games. Islanders are 4-10 in their last fourteen games.
Colorado is 3-5 in its last eight home games.
Calgary lost last two games in OT, but they're 7-1 in their last eight home games. Kings lost eight of their last nine games.
Dallas is 4-7 in its last eleven games.

Series Records
Sabres are 3-1 vs Boston this season: 5-4/6-2/2-3/6-3.
Lightning is 2-1 vs Philly this season: 4-1/3-4/5-2.
Visiting team won both Toronto-Carolina games this season.
Thrashers are 2-1 vs Devils this season: 5-2/1-2/4-3.
Home side won all three Ottawa-Washington games this year
Islanders won 2-1 at Detroit in last year's meeting.
Florida is 2-0 vs Pittsburgh this season, 5-2/3-2.
Nashville, Colorado split two games this season.
Minnesota is 3-1 vs Blues this season: 5-3/3-2/1-2/5-4.
Flames are 2-1 vs Kings this season: 1-3/6-4/5-3.
Columbus is 1-2 vs Canucks this season: 0-1/3-2/2-3.
Dallas, San Jose split four games this season, with three of the four resulting in shutouts.

Back-to-Back Situations
Bruins are 4-2 if they played the night before.
Toronto is 4-3 on front end of back/back.
Ottawa is 3-4 if it played the night before.
Columbus is 7-6 on front end of back/back.

Totals
Over is 17-8-1 in Bruins' last twenty-six games.
Over is 5-2-2 in last nine Philadelphia games.
Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under total.
Under is 7-2-1 in Devils' last ten games.
Last four Ottawa games stayed under the total.
Last four Detroit games stayed under the total, but in last five Islander games, over is 4-0-1.
Last seven Pittsburgh games went over the total.
Under is 8-3-1 in last dozen Nashville road games.
Last five Minnesota games stayed under the total.
Four of Kings' last five games stayed under total.
Six of last seven Columbus games stayed under the total.
Under is 6-3 in last nine Dallas road games.

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[djmauiboy]

NCAAB DUNKEL


Dunkel

TUESDAY, JANUARY 30

Game 513-514: Notre Dame at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 70.114; Syracuse 66.714
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 3
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+3)

Game 515-516: Mississippi State at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 66.436; Mississippi 64.985
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+2 1/2)

Game 517-518: Wichita State at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 64.477; Northern Iowa 63.793
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 1
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (+3 1/2)

Game 519-520: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 45.527; Miami (OH) 61.595
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 16
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 14
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-14)

Game 521-522: Maryland at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 69.747; Florida State 68.162
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+2 1/2)

Game 523-524: Evansville at Illinois State
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 60.303; Illinois State 59.172
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 1
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+3 1/2)

Game 525-526: Georgia Tech at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 69.847; Wake Forest 56.515
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 5
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-5)

Game 527-528: Colorado at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 53.596; Baylor 60.319
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 7
Vegas Line: Baylor by 11
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+11)

Game 529-530: Michigan State at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 70.636; Illinois 64.761
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 6
Vegas Line: Illinois by 3
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3)

Game 531-532: UNLV at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 65.057; Colorado State 60.964
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 4
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 1
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+1)

Game 533-534: Wyoming at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 59.563; New Mexico 60.875
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 535-536: Marist at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 52.227; Manhattan 53.540
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Marist by 1
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+1)

Game 537-538: Davidson at Elon
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 59.889; Elon 46.377
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Davidson by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-9 1/2)

Game 539-540: Tennessee State at Jacksonville State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 47.226; Jacksonville State 41.520
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State