Damn is everyone on SMU and Phoenix

[jason18]

The higher % was on new England but there was more money going to minnesota which is why the line dropped.JEEZ

[jason18]

With more money going on minnesota that is why the line dropped.

[wayne1218]

The higher % was on new England but there was more money going to minnesota which is why the line dropped.JEEZ

Right ... i thought you had it the other way around.

[rwall]

It suggested fading minnesota.You could have 300 50$ players and 3 $10,000 players and the line would drop even though the higher % was on New England.

This is not my argument, but I feel compelled in saying this....and don't take it the wrong way....But you have NO WAY of telling where the SMART money is going. Or to what casino it is being played at. You don't know if it's being played off-shore or in Vegas. Can you really tell when the smart money is played, early line movement or late line movement.
I know for a fact that there are syndicates that eye certain games and dump money on a side to get the number where they want it then pound the other side.
Smart money plays where they get the best number.

AGAIN please do not take this as an insult that's not who I am but if anyone can figure out where the smart money is going then they wouldn't be here at BC. they would be dumping with the smart money.

[frankb03]

Jason, the line would GO UP even though the high % was on Minny, not down. People forget, all vegas cares about is the vig and evening out every play wagered to get the free money. The line is set to distribute it evenly (hopefully). When money is poured in on one side, that is when it moves to even the money out again.

I can't believe how many people over think these lines. To each their own i guess!

I agree!

[Kaptain]

rwall

This is not my argument, but I feel compelled in saying this....and don't take it the wrong way....But you have NO WAY of telling where the SMART money is going. Or to what casino it is being played at. You don't know if it's being played off-shore or in Vegas. Can you really tell when the smart money is played, early line movement or late line movement.
I know for a fact that there are syndicates that eye certain games and dump money on a side to get the number where they want it then pound the other side.
Smart money plays where they get the best number.

AGAIN please do not take this as an insult that's not who I am but if anyone can figure out where the smart money is going then they wouldn't be here at BC. they would be dumping with the smart money.

well said----there is no proven or documented place that can tell you, or will tell you, what % is Public, and what % is Smart Money-----

and if there is a place, they can only acct for their particular establishments percentile, and what makes you think they'll honestly tell, when it's the VIG---they want.........

Their money is made on VIG....not necessarily who won the damn game.........this is why there is line movement to balance that off........

FRANK B----agree once again,,,kapt

[wayne1218]

well said----there is no proven or documented place that can tell you, or will tell you, what % is Public, and what % is Smart Money-----

and if there is a place, they can only acct for their particular establishments percentile, and what makes you think they'll honestly tell, when it's the VIG---they want.........

Their money is made on VIG....not necessarily who won the damn game.........this is why there is line movement to balance that off........

FRANK B----agree once again,,,kapt

BINGO!!!

[jason18]

Guys when you have 80% + people going on one team and the line goes the other way it is smart money.You can argue with me all day but it is what it is.

[linemover]

Most everybody was on Minn last night>>>>>>>>>>>
and they got a whoooped asz, when clearly NE was the better team.. and pick

most of the money was on NE not minny

[jason18]

Most of the money was on minnesota why do you think the line dropped.There was a higher % of bettors on New England,but more money on minnsota,i thought you were an expert capper.

[linemover]

Most of the money was on minnesota why do you think the line dropped.There was a higher % of bettors on New England,but more money on minnsota,i thought you were an expert capper.

jason i am telling you that you are wrong here-there was more NE money-i promise you

[jason18]

Then why did the line drop.My local needed New England bad.I dont see your arguement with this one.

[rwall]

Then why did the line drop.My local needed New England bad.I dont see your arguement with this one.

You cannot judge line movements by what a local needs. Most local guys, if professional, subscribe to a line service that monitors up to the minute movements at a host of different (mostly offshore) sportsbooks. Sometimes they, like a sportsbook will move the lines how they need or they just hedge with another local so they protect themselves.
Your theory at one time in sportsbetting was very accurate, but those days are over. This was referred to as the Cadillac Theory (Bookies would drive caddys while we pushed Fords).
Vegas casinos are now corporate owned and when a sister casino gets a big wager the others will move their lines.
Island sportsbooks, although most individually owned still network with other sportsbooks and tip each other off to BIG wagers or sharp players and adjust lines accordingly.
.....and finally you keep quoting percentages of wagers placed, there is no way you can tell wager percentages by one book casino's percents. There are too many venues available to place bets. What one book needs the other might not.

[jason18]

aLL I AM SAYING IS THE LINE MOVED TOWARD MINNESOTA .THEY ADJUST LINES TO GET EQUAL BETTING ON BOTH SIDES.THEY DONT MOVE IT FOR THE HELL OF IT.

[jason18]

aLSO ONE OF THE SITES I USE USES A COMBINATION ALL CASINO'S SO YOU CAN GET AN AVERAGE %