BigJake's Picks in October

[BigJake]

NCAA fades

At Long last, here are my Public Fades: I am posting these, and hopefully we can glean some one sample population type information from which we can make a null hypothesis. Let's see what hits (as in are ml's worthless, are totals very nice to fade, etc).

Navy +14 - 88% of money on ND.

North Carolina +8.5 - 95% of public money on the Deacons

Wake Forest/NC UNDER 40.5, 83% of public money on the over

Duke +9 - 86% of public money on Vandy

Air Force +9 - 85% of public money on BYU

Ball State +5.5- 84% of public money on Miami OH

Texas / Texas Tech UNDER 56 - 86% of public money on over

Army +5 - 80% of public money on Tulane

Minnesota +27 & UNDER 47.5 - 86% of public money on Ohio State, 73% of public money on OVER for Ohio state game.

Mississippi +17 - 83% of public money on Auburn

GA/FLA UNDER 42 - 74% of public money on OVER

Oregon St +13 & UNDER 45 - 82% on USC and 92% of public money on Over

KENT ST -270 ML - 99% of public money on Ohio ML

UNLV +20 - 94% of public money on Utah

Memphis +6.5 - 91% of public money on Marshall

Colorado State -260 ML 99% of public money on NM ML

San Jose State -420 ML 96% of public moneyLousiana Tech ML

Akron -5 - 82% of public money on Toledo

Oklahoma State +6 & UNDER 54.5 - 88% of public
money on Nebraska, 79% of public money on OVER

Alabama -36 - 86% of public money on FLAINT

Troy State -450 ML 97% of public money on North Texas

Arkansas State -260 ML 96% of public money on FAU

La Lafyette -140 ML - 95% of public money on MTSU

Connectict +19.5 - 89% of public money on Rutgers.

*****Plays in Italics I'm treading lightly, and only playing for one half unit. Bold is one unit.*****

[BigJake]

updated lines/lines I've put the money on

Had to update the lines, as the ones I posted were based on the opening (at least the ones I couldn't edit before 10 minutes expired!)

Navy +14 - 88% of money on ND.

North Carolina +8.5 - 95% of public money on the Deacons

Wake Forest/NC UNDER 41, 83% of public money on the over

Duke +9 - 86% of public money on Vandy

Air Force +8 - 85% of public money on BYU

Ball State +3.5- 84% of public money on Miami OH

Texas / Texas Tech UNDER - 86% of public money on over

Army +5 - 80% of public money on Tulane

Minnesota +27 & UNDER 47.5 - 86% of public money on Ohio State, 73% of public money on OVER for Ohio state game.

Mississippi +17 - 83% of public money on Auburn

GA/FLA UNDER 42 - 74% of public money on OVER

Oregon St +10.5 & UNDER 45 - 82% on USC and 92% of public money on Over

KENT ST -270 ML - 99% of public money on Ohio ML

UNLV +21 - 94% of public money on Utah

Memphis +9.5 - 91% of public money on Marshall

Colorado State -239 ML 99% of public money on NM ML

San Jose State -380 ML 96% of public moneyLousiana Tech ML

Akron -4.5 - 82% of public money on Toledo

Oklahoma State +6 & UNDER 53 - 88% of public
money on Nebraska, 79% of public money on OVER

Alabama -35 - 86% of public money on FLAINT

Troy State -450 ML 97% of public money on North Texas

Arkansas State -260 ML 96% of public money on FAU

La Lafyette -136 ML - 95% of public money on MTSU

Connectict +19.5 - 89% of public money on Rutgers.[/SIZE]

*****Plays in Italics I'm treading lightly, and only playing for one half unit. Bold is one unit.*****

[BigJake]

Tulsa Utep Under WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BigJake]

Ok, so I guess it's so late that I'm the only one posting. Why am I up? Who knows, but it's not that late here in the west coastal area.

So my plays to date using late public money fading is 3-0. Let's see what happens tomorrow! I have twenty four picks that are fading the public. My hypothesis (not the null hypothesis mind you) is that when betting the aggregate of heavily lopsided games against the public, a statistically significant win/cover percentage above 50% will be revealed. As sample sizes grow, the validity of this method will either be seen or rejected. Good luck to all tomorrow!

* Note - my Tenessee ML play is not a public fade, and thus will not could towards the win/loss percentage using this system, good or bad.

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Big Jake.

[BigJake]

lots of losses yesterday, 10-13 (if you count Tennessee, which I posted here but wasn't part of the fades).

One play today, and it is
Rutgers/Cinci UNDER 39

[BigJake]

Rutgers/Cinci UNDER 39 WIN!!!!
Cinci +19.5 WIN!!!

I think that brings my total for the week at...

15-14 (counting the VT, UTEP etc)

whew! What a week! not sure anyone is really following me. But I'm liking this fading business. Always have though...

[BigJake]

Did the books make money? a retrospective...

Part one of two in this analysis (i have to sleep at some point guys). I look at the number of Y's, or Yes, the book made money because more people were on the side that lost.
So... Y / N / Y means yes they made money on the spread, no they lost on the money line (a kind of misnomer but let's keep it simple), and Yes the books made money on the O/U. Ok, the * indicate over 70% of public on that side. So Y* = pblic got screwed.


GAME BOOK WINS S / ML / Tot
1. clemson Y * / Y / Y
2. Tulsa Y / na / Y
3. Iowa Y / na / Y
4. Buffalo Y / na / na
5. Wake Forest Y* / N / Push
6. Notre Dame N* / na / N
7. NC State N / Y / na
8 Fla State Y / Y / na
9 Cincinnati N / N / na
10 Northwestern Y / na / Y*
11 Wisconsin Y* / na / N*
12 Mich St. Y / N / na
13 Bowling Green N / na / na
14 Vanderbilt N */ N */ na
15 BYU N */ N */ na
16 Ball State N */ N */ na
17 Kansas State N / N / na
18 Texas Y / N */ N*
19 Tulane Y / N * / na
20 Tex A&M N / N / na
21 Penn state N / Y / N*
22 Ohio state N */ na / Y
23 W. Michigan Y / na / na
24 Auburn Y * / na / na
25. Tennessee N * / N / N

Analysis
10 total OU's listed in this information set (rest not available). 5Y's 5 N's

25 spreads 13 Y's, 12 N's

15 ML's 5 Y's 10 N's * this does not matter. It evens out i believe for the ML's.

19 *'s 5 Y's!!!! ok, I'm not sure what this means. This is a sample set of only 25. I'll think about this.

Actually, we have to take this analysis one step further, and with proper info we should take it another step beyond that. Firstly, I need to analyze which games at what percentage of the public on were more likely to lose. Next, I have a deep suspicion the books Win Loss percentage varies dramatically with the amount of money on the game (this information is for now )impossible for me to get. Thoughts on how to get this? thoughts on this as an intellectual exercise? is this pointless?

[BigJake]

Ok, I'm not sure what the worth or value of doing part two is, as there is incomplete information (i.e. how much money is bet on each game, etc) I think to derive true benefit. I will think about this and maybe crunch some numbers at work when things are not busy.
However, that's not why I started this post...
if you link on this website (where I've been deriving my information as an extrapolation on the public at large...)
http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook...php?bt=fbcodds

You'll see that the side bets for Fresno State Boise game as opening at -26 (guess who's the favorite? jk, that's not my point). But now currently at -23.5 with 58% of bets on spread on Boise State (the favorite you goloofs!). What's my point? well, when you think about it, it seems the sportsbook posting this information is dicking with us. Why would the spread drop down 2.5 points to promote betting on the favorite if 58% of public is on the favorite? Again, I think the website is dicking with us. the only reason I could see that they did this was that they may have adjusted it when money was being dumped early on Fresno and now this line adjustment has evened out the number of bets on either side. I don't know, I still think they're dicking with me. Thoughts? I notice not many people are posting replies, that could be for any number of reasons. Well, anyway, I hope somebody's reading! I love BC, and want to contribute something beneficial!

[BigJake]

Oh, and I do have a pick for you guys...

MOVIES

The Santa Clause 3:cruise control UNDER 23 million -154

Do I need even need to give you an analysis why I like the under? Do you see the beauty of this pick? If the public goes out en masse for this movie and I lose the bet, then I will mourn for our country and my fellow americans.

[BigJake]

Another smaller bet for me will be...

MOVIES

Borat OVER 11 million -137

It looks hilarious, I'm going to go see it. Niiice! I love US and A!