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Originally posted by Spearit
What's these trends over the last few years, 5 years, 10 years? Then you'll get my attention.
gl
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I have a problem with these trends. There's not enough long term history. IMO like the 70% public number, long term it'll end up at 50% At 3-10 a small losing streak quickly brings this 'system' back to 50%
What's these trends over the last few years, 5 years, 10 years? Then you'll get my attention.
gl -
Thanx Frank for your comments.
I post to monitor and do not mean to state that these trends can not reverse- we have certainly seen enuff of that happening. Seems like we catch on a little late or is it -thats all.
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You will get this again from our Trend crew- but I thought I would throw it in at this time.
Sunday, October 22nd
San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 7-0 Under away vs. division opponents
Kansas City: 18-7 ATS off a road loss by 14+ points
Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 12-3 Under off BB games scoring 25+ points
Houston: 1-5 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points
New England at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
New England: 11-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Buffalo: 5-0 Under off a loss as a favorite
Pittsburgh at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
Pittsburgh: 7-0 ATS away off a win by 14+ points
Atlanta: 5-15 ATS off a home game
Green Bay at Miami, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 22-10 Over off BB losses
Miami: 1-8 ATS as a home favorite
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 4-0 ATS off BB Overs
Tampa Bay: 9-2 Under at home off a win
Detroit at NY Jets, 1:00 EST
Detroit: 4-13 ATS away off a win as an underdog
NY Jets: 8-0 Over off a division game
Carolina at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 12-3 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 2-8 ATS in October
Denver at Cleveland, 4:05 EST
Denver: 6-0 ATS off a divison win
Cleveland: 9-2 Under at home off a road game
Washington at Indianapolis, 4:15 EST
Washington: 14-4 Under off an ATS loss
Indianapolis: 1-4 ATS vs. Washington
Minnesota at Seattle, 4:15 EST
Minnesota: 12-4 ATS vs. conference opponents
Seattle: 3-11 ATS off a division game
Arizona at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Arizona: 9-1 Over in October
Oakland: 0-6 ATS as a home underdog
Monday, October 23rd
NY Giants at Dallas, 8:30 EST ESPN
NY Giants: 35-16 Under off a win by 10+ points
Dallas: 2-11 ATS off a win by 28+ points
"The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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According to the data, I shall bet against all of them. Let see what will happen. I believe I shall win with 90% chance. Thanks for pick those out. GLComment
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I hope you read where you might wait and see the popular people opinion and a possible better line closer to game time and then bet.Originally posted by fatchat
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NFL Power Rankings - Week 7
Chicago's comeback victory on Monday night saved us a lot of work here at the NFL Power Rankings. We'd already decided on this week's order late on Sunday night - surely the Bears would pound the Arizona Cardinals on MNF, and keep their top spot on the list. However, plans for some serious cut-and-paste work started to be developed at halftime on Monday, and as the fourth quarter got underway we were trying to decide how far Chicago would fall down the rankings, and how far Arizona would move up the list. But, needless to say, all such plans were scrapped.
So the Bears stay at No. 1 in the rankings this week, with the Indianapolis Colts at No. 2, and the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, and San Diego Chargers rounding out the Top 5. The Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, and New York Giants all solidified spots in the Top 10 with their victories on the weekend, while the Philadelphia Eagles and the Cincinnati Bengals barely retained their Top-10 berths. And the Cardinals? They should have been punished more for their collapse, but with the teams around them so weak they stayed at spot No. 24.
Here is the Week 7 edition of the NFL Power Rankings.
01 - Chicago Bears 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS (Last Week 01)
It wasn't pretty, but they got the win on Monday - thanks to touchdowns off two fumble returns and a punt return.
02 - Indianapolis Colts 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS (Last Week 02)
Come back from a bye this week to play host to the Redskins. Can improve record to 6-0 with a Week 7 victory.
03 - New England Patriots 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS (Last Week 03)
Coming off a bye as well, but they'll be on the road versus the Bills. Need a Colts stumble to get top AFC mark.
04 - Seattle Seahawks 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS (Last Week 05)
Stormed back with 16 points in the fourth quarter Sunday afternoon to get past the Rams and move into first place.
05 - San Diego Chargers 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS (Last Week 07)
The 49ers weren't much of a challenge for Philip Rivers and company, as the Chargers romped to an easy 48-19 win.
06 - Denver Broncos 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS (Last Week 08)
Is the Denver offense really this bad? Managed to score only 13 points in their victory over the Raiders last week.
07 - New Orleans Saints 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS (Last Week 12)
Scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to beat the Eagles on Sunday, and improve their mark to 5-1.
08 - New York Giants 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS (Last Week 10)
It wasn't looking good for the Giants midway through the third quarter Sunday, but Eli Manning led them to a win.
09 - Philadelphia Eagles 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS (Last Week 04)
Had a chance to burst the Saints' bubble on the weekend, but couldn't get the job done. Play at Tampa this week.
10 - Cincinnati Bengals 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS (Last Week 06)
There's really no excuse for the Bengals losing to the previously winless Bucs on the weekend. Have Carolina next.
11 - Jacksonville Jaguars 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS (Last Week 11)
Return from a bye to play the Texans on the road on Sunday. Yet another team looking for the Colts to go cold.
12 - Carolina Panthers 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS (Last Week 13)
Got a big win over the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday, with Steve Smith having a huge game (189 yards, one TD).
13 - Baltimore Ravens 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS (Last Week 09)
Steve McNair was knocked out of their loss to Carolina early on Sunday, but Kyle Boller almost got them the win.
14 - St. Louis Rams 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS (Last Week 14)
Torry Holt caught eight passes for 154 yards and three touchdowns Sunday, but the Seahawks still won the game.
15 - Pittsburgh Steelers 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS (Last Week 15)
Ran roughshod over the Chiefs on Sunday, going up 31-0 at halftime and then cruising to a 45-7 win at Heinz Field.
16 - Dallas Cowboys 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS (Last Week 19)
A game against the Texans was just what Terrell Owens needed: five catches for 45 yards, with three touchdowns.
17 - Atlanta Falcons 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS (Last Week 16)
Their defense wasn't able to shut down the Giants on the weekend, and now they're two back in the NFC South.
18 - Minnesota Vikings 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS (Last Week 18)
They're the team in the middle in the NFC South - well behind the Bears, well ahead of both the Packers and Lions.
19 - New York Jets 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS (Last Week 23)
Almost blew a lead on Sunday against the Dolphins, but they held on and boosted their record back up to .500.
20 - Kansas City Chiefs 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS (Last Week 17)
How bad were they against the Steelers? Larry Johnson ran for just 26 yards, and he was their rushing leader.
21 - Washington Redskins 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS (Last Week 20)
Rock bottom for the Redskins? After losing to the Titans at home on Sunday, Washington isn't looking so good.
22 - San Francisco 49ers 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS (Last Week 21)
Had no chance against the Chargers on Sunday, but at least they're still a game up on the Cardinals in the division.
23 - Buffalo Bills 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS (Last Week 22)
Got down early against the Lions on Sunday, and a late rally failed to get them a win. In tough against the Patriots.
24 - Arizona Cardinals 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS (Last Week 24)
We had a lot of nice things to say about Matt Leinart in this space, but his team's meltdown cost him that press.
25 - Miami Dolphins 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS (Last Week 25)
That stuff about Joey Harrington being the answer? Never mind; one touchdown pass but two INTs versus the Jets.
26 - Green Bay Packers 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS (Last Week 26)
Coming off a bye week and have only one win so far this season. Can anything interesting be said in this spot?
27 - Cleveland Browns 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS (Last Week 27)
Coming off a bye week and have only one win so far this season. Can anything interesting be said in this spot?
28 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS (Last Week 29)
Bruce Gradkowski tossed a touchdown pass in the last minute of play to get the Bucs that win over the Bengals.
29 - Detroit Lions 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS (Last Week 30)
Jon Kitna threw for 278 yards and a touchdown to carry the Lions past the Bills, and Kevin Jones ran for 127 yards.
30 - Tennessee Titans 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS (Last Week 31)
Travis Henry ran for 178 yards and a touchdown against the Redskins on Sunday in the team's first win of 2006.
31 - Houston Texans 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS (Last Week 28)
Not a good game for David Carr against the Cowboys: 15-of-27 for 128 yards passing, no TDs, two interceptions.
32 - Oakland Raiders 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS (Last Week 32)
All the other winless teams picked up a win on the weekend, meaning the Raiders are clearly the team for this spot. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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Thanks for your advice. You are very good in this forum!
Comment
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NFL Public Road Teams
Tracking NFL teams with 70%+ public backing at 16-17 ATS this season. No big deal so far, but when you get to 75% they are 9-12 ATS.
Still not impressed? How about this? When you break it down to home and road teams,
NFL road teams with 75%+ public backing are 3-10 ATS this season. When you push that to 80% they are 1-4 ATS and you would have won every single week just betting against these blind.
Possibly a re-adjustment from the books to last year when NFL road favorites covered at 63.2% for the season?
7 Teams still have 80+% on Sunday morning
Which of these dogs will bite? Will the trend play on or reverse?
The play is on the home dog. Team on right.
SDG 86% vs KC
JAC 81% vs HOU
NWE 91% vs BUF
PIT 84% VS ATL
PHL 90% VS TB
NYJ 83% VS DET
ARZ 87% VS OAKLast edited by Spearit; 10-22-2006, 12:00 PM. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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Thanks for the info!!!! No teasers todays?
Goodluck today buddy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"Sometimes it's not what you play, but what you don't play."Comment
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Thanx Keawe- but no teasers for me today.
Try your stongest plays from who you have faith in. Best of luck. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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You to buddy!!!!!!!
just saw your 10*, think I'll throw that on a teaser with some other totals.
Have a good one!!!!!!!!!"Sometimes it's not what you play, but what you don't play."Comment
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thanks for all the insights and info Spear----kapt
Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!Comment
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im on this, thanks for the infoComment
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Doc...You always have the best info.......Just like a doctor....Needs definitive clinical data!!!!:re
d:
I appreciate it!!Comment
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Thanx fatchat, Keawe, Kapt, Slippery and Tony
Update
SDG 86% vs KC-----------------Pending (Tied)
JAC 81% vs HOU-----------------Win
NWE 91% vs BUF-----------------Loss
PIT 84% VS ATL----------------Pending (Tied)
PHL 90% VS TB-------------------Win
NYJ 83% VS DET------------------Loss
ARZ 87% VS OAK "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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Update
SDG 86% vs KC------------------Win
JAC 81% vs HOU-----------------Win
NWE 91% vs BUF-----------------Loss
PIT 84% VS ATL------------------Win
PHL 90% VS TB-------------------Win
NYJ 83% VS DET------------------Loss
ARZ 87% VS OAK
Oakland up 17-0Last edited by Spearit; 10-22-2006, 05:16 PM. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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5-2 Day on this system. I made money- but I tell ya it was not easy to bet on these teams. Vegas knows this! NFL road teams with 75%+ public backing are now 5-15 ATS this season. When you push that to 80% they are 3-9 ATS and you would have won every single week just betting against these blind.
Update- Play the team on the right!!!
SDG 86% vs KC------------------Win
JAC 81% vs HOU-----------------Win
ARZ 87% VS OAK-----------------Win
PIT 84% VS ATL------------------Win
PHL 90% VS TB-------------------Win
NWE 91% vs BUF-----------------Loss
NYJ 83% VS DET------------------LossLast edited by Spearit; 10-23-2006, 04:14 PM. "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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