NFL Buying 1/2 Point Guide

[griswold]

Let me make a couple of other points.

Frank says the books offer this option precisely vecause it is a bad bet. By that logic, no one should bet on anything offered by the books.

Since books charge juice on all bets, by definition, any wagering strategy would lose money if a bettor went 50-50.

The question here ought to be whether buying points will INCREASE one's own chance of beating the book. As I said, the better the bettor, the likelier the strategy is to be succesful

[frankb03]

It assumes all games are equal. For example, a low scoring game with two defensive teams may produce a situation where a 3 point win or loss is likelier than a game involving high scoring teams.

I did do that type of analysis today based on the games posted total. I thought low posted totals would return more pushes or wins/losses by the hook. With two defensive teams the game total would be set low. That assumption did not pan out.

As I posted earlier there was no correlation between the game line, posted total and pushes/hooks. The pushes and hooks were all over the board in relation to the posted total.

See post #8

[frankb03]

One other point. I'm not sure Frank's analysis includes the reality that buying points in a game you win where didn't need the points (like last night---Jax was +3 -120 but won straight up) shouldn't be factored into the bottom line. I think only losing bets where points were bought should be included.

Games where the buy did not factor into the result, like last night's game, was not part of the calculation. The calculation was based only on ATS loses. If the buy resulted in a cover or had no effect on an ATS cover my calculation returned the buy cost.

[frankb03]

Frank-thanks for the stats.
I am just curious if you also have stats for the NFL to show in what percentage of 2 team 6 point teasers the points gained have made a difference in whether the teams contained therein would have won on their own and more importantly in what percentage of plays 1) the teasers play would have won and the individual plays would have split or lost.
The more I think about this question the more I think it might be unrealistic as they are thousands of combinations which would have to be considered.
Anyways, I know the consensus up here is that teasers in the NFL are a good investment;what do you think based on your stats and/or general impression?
Thanks

Savage, I saw this post. I'll test later or tomorrow and post the results.

[frankb03]

Does it work the other way then? Does it make sense to take a lower line to get odds? For example if TB is +3 -110, do you take +2.5 +100?

Vondie, good question. I'll check and post the results.

[frankb03]

Frank says the books offer this option precisely vecause it is a bad bet. By that logic, no one should bet on anything offered by the books.

My results prove its a bad investment for the player and a huge tool for the sportbook.

NO that logic doesn't make every bet a BAD bet.

[frankb03]

In my own case, I often buy on or off three especially when I can do it for -120 or less.

Over the past few years I've used 5 different offshore sportbooks. None offered buying off/on 3 for -120. If any bettor gets -120 then ALWAYS buy on/off 3 and 7. Some locals probably offer -120 off/on 3

Last year in the NFL this startegy saved me from SIX losses that became pushes while I lost only two of the games. Last year, I had a great NFL season so it was likelier that I would be right or close in more of my picks than if I was having a bad season.

You saved 6 losses in the NFL last season buying 1/2 point? I know lines fluctuate. Pretty amazing stat. Considering, last season there were only 15 games that finished within 1/2 point of the closing line. Ten pushes and 5 half point wins/losses. And only another 9 games that finished within 1 point of the line. Once again, further proof to shop around and use multiple outlets.

[CMDawg]

Thanks for the info Frank - very good read. I would also be interested in the stats to back up vondie's question.

[frankb03]

It also assumes a bettor has an equal chance of being right or wrong in any game.

Most bettors lose wagering on the NFL. It's fair to assume buying points would esculate those losses. Wayne's cappers contest should be a good indication of that fact.

[frankb03]

low scoring game with two defensive teams may produce a situation where a 3 point win or loss is likelier than a game involving high scoring teams.

Your assumption would make an ass out of you and me. Frankly, it is an incorrect assumption.

In all games using all lines the total of 43.5 had the most ATS pushes from a percentage. 8 pushes in 116 games or 6.9%.

The top six ATS pushes based on percentage:

Total 43.5 8 pushes in 116 games 6.9%
Total 46.5 3 pushes in 60 games 5.0%
Total 34.5 4 pushes in 88 games 4.6%
Total 38.0 10 pushes in 227 games 4.4%
Total 40.0 7 pushes in 161 games 4.3%
Total 42.5 5 pushes in 123 games 4.1%

The above results were based on totals set 40 or more games in over 4000 games.

If I don't filter any game and I use all games the top five totals with pushes:

51.5 1/9 (1 push in 9 games)
50.0 1/10
49.5 1/12
48.5 2/28
43.5 8/116
32.5 1/18

We can clearly see games with low totals, or games with low scoring teams and better defenses do not result in more ATS pushes. On the contrary. Games with higher totals return more ATS pushes.


Using only games with the closing line of 3 return mixed results. Listed in percentage order.

43.5 4/18
42.5 4/20
39.5 4/25
35.0 3/19
38.0 5/32
37.0 7/46

A few side notes in the games with a closing line of 3.

There's only been 1 push in 25 games with the game total of 48 or higher.

There's been 13 ATS pushes in 143 (9.1%) with the games total less than 37.

There's been 12 ATS pushes in 105 games (11.4%) in games with the game total set higher than 44.

As I stated previously. I find no correlation between pushes and the games total.

[frankb03]

Points Scored

There's no correlation between actual points scored and ATS pushes. Unless one can predict the score.

Points scored:
79 3/12 (3 pushes in 12 games)
71 4/20
77 1/6
23 11/119
15 2/22
63 2/25
67 1/13
37 13/195
19 3/48
13 1/18
43 6/115
31 6/117

[frankb03]

Frank-thanks for the stats.
I am just curious if you also have stats for the NFL to show in what percentage of 2 team 6 point teasers the points gained have made a difference in whether the teams contained therein would have won on their own and more importantly in what percentage of plays 1) the teasers play would have won and the individual plays would have split or lost.

Savage, I finished the initial analysis on 6 point teasers in the NFL. I'll post the results tomorrow. I'm trying to get it in a format that's easy to read. I was going to attached a word document but I'm restricted to file size.

[savage1]

Savage, I finished the initial analysis on 6 point teasers in the NFL. I'll post the results tomorrow. I'm trying to get it in a format that's easy to read. I was going to attached a word document but I'm restricted to file size.

Thanks Frank. Take your time and don't go overboard.
As stated, the general feeling seems to be that at least in the NFL, teasers are a better investment than they are than in other sports, and some books don't even take them.
I am just curious as to what any stats you have show in this matter,