NFL Buying 1/2 Point Guide

[frankb03]

Two season ago I did analysis on buying the 1/2 point in the NFL. After yesterday's thread I decided to do it again. For analysis purposes I used an additional cost of $25 on or off the line of 3, $20 on or off 7 and $10 for all other lines for a $100. This week in the NFL Pinnacle charges as much as an additional $29 more to buy off/on 3. Seattle is -3.5 -108. To buy them down it's -3 -137. Pinnacle charges $18 more on/off 7. As I stated yesterday. If buying 1/2 points was for the players advantage the sportbooks wouldn't offer the option.

If a sports bettor is a recreational player, $5 or $10 a game and they don't really care if you lose then open a Pinny account and buy all 1/2 points off a half line.

If one is a serious bettor then buying foolishly is a bad investment. Serious investors won't pay $15 for a stock trade when they can make that same trade at $7. How many people buy flight insurance for insurance against a plane crashes? Why buy something that's a bad investment? Sports betting is no difference.

I only analyzed NFL games with lines of 10 or less. Since 1989 there were over 1600 regular season games of 10 or less.

NFL Underdog

Using the Pinnancle criteria almost all 1/2 buys on dogs are a losing investment.

Only three lines are marginally profitable:

• +5.5 to +6
• +9.5 to +10
• +10 to +10.5

The following buys are TERRIBLE investments:

• 2.5 to 3
• 3 to 3.5
• 3.5 to 4
• 4 to 4.5
• 6.5 to 7
• 7 to 7.5

67 of 631 NFL games pushed with the line set at 3. With Pinny charging an extra $25, $27 or $29 on a $100 wager it's too costly. If a dog bettor bought every +2.5 dog to +3 it would cost the player an additional $1173.

NFL Favorites

Favorites are easy. Buying from -3.5 to -3 is a marginal losing investment. All other lines are poor investment. Buying on/off -7 are two of the worst investment.

This all proves two thing:

First, Shop around. Use multiple books. Some books only charge an extra $20 on/off 3. At $20 then always buy on/off 3. Some charge $10 on/off 7. If they do. Always buy on/off 7. Otherwise, learn to accept losing by the hook. Who cares if you lose by the hook or lose by 10 points?

Second, why do book offer 1/2 point buys. It's an additional money maker for them. As I stated earlier 67 pushes in 631 games, 10.6% with the line set at 3. Sportbooks don't want pushes. They also don't want to move the line off a key number. How do they make money? They offer 1/2 point buys. They make money on the other 90% of the games by offering buys. While it only plays on role for the player in 10% of the games. They know psychologically the bettor hates losing by the hook. And some of us take the hook (Pun intended).

[BigWeiner]

Thanks for the info Frank.

[KazDog]

Good write up Frank....Makes sense

KAZ

[frankb03]

Additional Info

Since 1989, in more than 4000 games, favorites have lost by the hook 68 times. Favorites of -3.5 have lost by the hook 33 games, approximately 2 per season. Last season one -3.5 favorite lost by the hook. In 2004 there were 4 games. None in 2003.

Dogs have lost by the hook 56 games. +2.5 dogs have lost by the hook 15 times. Less than 1 per season. A +2.5 dog hasn't lost in the NFL since the 2003 season.

There's been 67 pushes with the line at 3. In 16+ season, roughly 4 per season.

My stats are based on closing lines. Sportbooks rarely move the line off/on 3. Especially on Sunday's when most of the wagers are made. Once again solidifying the argument to shop around and use multiple sportbooks.

Bettors who buy 1/2 point probably do so fairly often. Probably off most 1/2 point lines. Since pushes and hook losses occur so infrequently there's no valid argument for the purchase.

[Ldawg]

Thanks Frank .... Food for Thought !

[drugstuntman]

awesome post, many thanks for the info frank

[Kaptain]

thanks for the info buddy--kapt

[frankb03]

Correlation to Game Total

My research has also shown there's no correlation between the games line and game total.

Game total 37: 10 pushes in 261 games
Game total 37.5: 6 pushes in 219 games
Game total 38: 10 pushes in 233 games

There's only been 6 lost games by the hook with the total set at 37. No other game totals offer any significance.

With the game line set at 3

Total 37: 7 pushes in 46 games
Total 37.5: 4 pushes in 37 games
Total 38: 5 pushes in 42 games



With the extra juice books charge not a wise investment. Also, not enough game to make an educated opinion.

[Three Jack]

Since 1989, in more than 4000 games, favorites have lost by the hook 68 times. Favorites of -3.5 have lost by the hook 33 games, approximately 2 per season. Last season one -3.5 favorite lost by the hook. In 2004 there were 4 games. None in 2003.

Dogs have lost by the hook 56 games. +2.5 dogs have lost by the hook 15 times. Less than 1 per season. A +2.5 dog hasn't lost in the NFL since the 2003 season.

There's been 67 pushes with the line at 3. In 16+ season, roughly 4 per season.

My stats are based on closing lines. Sportbooks rarely move the line off/on 3. Especially on Sunday's when most of the wagers are made. Once again solidifying the argument to shop around and use multiple sportbooks.

Bettors who buy 1/2 point probably do so fairly often. Probably off most 1/2 point lines. Since pushes and hook losses occur so infrequently there's no valid argument for the purchase.

So ,since 1989 only 124 games have been decided by the hook...damn, I think I had the losing side on all of them!

[soupman]

thanks frank

[frankb03]

Profitable Win Percentage

Below are the win percentages needed to profit from sports betting.

-104 51%
-110 52.4%
-120 54.6%
-125 55.6%
-130 56.6%
-140 58.4%

Most lose at -110. What makes them think they'll win at higher percentages? At -120 a sports bettor must win 54.6% of their games. More than 90% of cappers can hit that percentage.

[TheRook]

awesome stuff Frank,

Thanks!

[savage1]

Frank-thanks for the stats.
I am just curious if you also have stats for the NFL to show in what percentage of 2 team 6 point teasers the points gained have made a difference in whether the teams contained therein would have won on their own and more importantly in what percentage of plays 1) the teasers play would have won and the individual plays would have split or lost.
The more I think about this question the more I think it might be unrealistic as they are thousands of combinations which would have to be considered.
Anyways, I know the consensus up here is that teasers in the NFL are a good investment;what do you think based on your stats and/or general impression?
Thanks

[griswold]

Meticulously researched by Frank but I think the analysis has one flaw.

It assumes all games are equal. For example, a low scoring game with two defensive teams may produce a situation where a 3 point win or loss is likelier than a game involving high scoring teams. It also assumes a bettor has an equal chance of being right or wrong in any game.

I contend the better the handicapper the more profitable buying points will be and the worse the handicapper the greater the losses in buying points.

In my own case, I often buy on or off three especially when I can do it for -120 or less. Last year in the NFL this startegy saved me from SIX losses that became pushes while I lost only two of the games. Last year, I had a great NFL season so it was likelier that I would be right or close in more of my picks than if I was having a bad season.

One other point. I'm not sure Frank's analysis includes the reality that buying points in a game you win where didn't need the points (like last night---Jax was +3 -120 but won straight up) shouldn't be factored into the bottom line. I think only losing bets where points were bought should be included.

Just my two cents worth.

[vondie]

Does it work the other way then? Does it make sense to take a lower line to get odds? For example if TB is +3 -110, do you take +2.5 +100?