Tweet
Tigers a tough out on the road, and this weekend's NCAA basketball analysis
Monty Andrews
LSU bettors know that the Tigers bring out their best against tough competition – and that's exactly what Saturday's game represents as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in a pivotal SEC encounter. The stakes are getting higher across the NCAA basketball scene heading into the first weekend of March, with a packed schedule that features Kentucky and Tennessee looking at another low-scoring affair, and North Carolina continuing to be a major problem for home teams. Here are the top matchups, trends and betting tips to monitor with March Madness just around the corner:
Tigers a Tough Out
A hard-fought 82-80 overtime win over Tennessee has the LSU Tigers looking at a high seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament – and even facing a difficult road showdown with the Crimson Tide, bettors are likely to flock to the visitors in this one. Not only has LSU gone an impressive 7-1 SU in eight true road games so far in 2018-19, they're an identical 7-1 ATS in those contests while going a perfect 7-0 against the spread in their last seven road games vs. teams with home win rates above 60 percent. That said, LSU has covered just once in the previous seven meetings between the SEC rivals.
Points at a Premium?
Some shaky defensive showings have the Tennessee Volunteers teetering on the brink of falling out of the top 10 – so you can expect a more concerted effort on D as they host the Kentucky Wildcats in the biggest matchup of the weekend. Saturday's game represents a shot at redemption for the Vols after they were routed 86-69 at Kentucky on Feb. 16. Yet, while that game cashed the over, these teams have long trended toward the under, having gone 5-13-2 O/U in their previous 20 meetings. The Wildcats are 7-1 to the under in their last eight, while Tennessee is 5-1 to the under in its past six at home.
An Unwelcome Visitor
Winning consistently in hostile territory is often what separates good college teams from great ones – and if that's truly the case, then the North Carolina Tar Heels have to be considered one of the top teams in the country. The Tar Heels carry a profitable road record into Saturday's showdown with the host Clemson Tigers as they look to improve to 10-1 SU in games away from Dean E. Smith Center. North Carolina has covered 10 of its previous 11 road games overall and is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with records above .500 at home. it's also 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Tigers.
Creaky Creighton
Fans and bettors are treated to closely-contested games whenever Creighton and Marquette are involved – and unfortunately for the Bluejays, the last handful of encounters haven't gone their way as the Big East rivals square off Sunday night. The host Golden Eagles have won six consecutive meetings between the teams and have successfully covered all six, with each contest decided by eight or fewer points. The programs have also lit up the scoreboard in recent seasons, going over in five straight meetings – including a wild 106-104 Marquette victory in their previous showdown Jan. 9.
Mid-Major to Watch
UNC Greensboro Spartans (25-5 SU, 12-15-1 ATS, 12-15 O/U)
The Spartans have had an interesting season – wildly successful when it comes to winning games despite not doing anything at an elite level. And yet, UNC Greensboro finds itself well-positioned to challenge for the Southern Conference title after rebounding from back-to-back losses with a three-game winning streak during which it averaged a robust 79.7 points. And they'll need that kind of offensive outburst if they hope to make waves come tournament time.
The Spartans are a top-75 team in points per game (77.0) while ranking 84th in points allowed (68.0), but do have weaknesses that superior teams have exploited. For one, they allow opponents to shoot nearly 36 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks 266th in Division I. They're also below average both at the free-throw line (69.6 percent, 204th) and on the boards (34.6 rebounds per game, 226th), and could run into trouble against strong rebounding clubs.
National Title Odds
Of all the elite teams in action this weekend, the Wildcats might just have the most to gain from a national title odds perspective. Kentucky currently sits fourth in the odds table at +1,100 to win the title, behind only Duke (+240), Gonzaga (+750) and Virginia (+950). Tennessee could also move up in the pecking order with a win; the Vols are at +1,400.
Betting Trends
Road favorites continue to take a bath as we near conference tournament time, with home underdogs going a sizzling 52-41-2 ATS over the previous seven days. Those looking for an edge between road underdogs and home favorites are disappointed yet again, with both sides having posted identical 110-110-5 ATS marks over the past week.
Non-overtime games remain great under plays, converting at a 56.7-percent clip over the last week's worth of games. Only a 23-2 O/U mark in OT games allowed the over to produce a less-dismal 47.1-percent conversion rate for the seven-day period. Unders remain the superior play for the season, connecting 51.9 percent of the time to date.
Only five teams have reached the 20-cover plateau as we enter the final month of the season. Virginia and Michigan State are the most notable teams to have covered 20 or more times through Thursday's games, with the Cavaliers at 20-7 ATS (second overall) and the Spartans at 20-8 (fifth). Drake (20-6-2), Texas Rio Grande Valley (20-8-1) and Mississippi (20-8) are the others.
Monty Andrews
LSU bettors know that the Tigers bring out their best against tough competition – and that's exactly what Saturday's game represents as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in a pivotal SEC encounter. The stakes are getting higher across the NCAA basketball scene heading into the first weekend of March, with a packed schedule that features Kentucky and Tennessee looking at another low-scoring affair, and North Carolina continuing to be a major problem for home teams. Here are the top matchups, trends and betting tips to monitor with March Madness just around the corner:
Tigers a Tough Out
A hard-fought 82-80 overtime win over Tennessee has the LSU Tigers looking at a high seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament – and even facing a difficult road showdown with the Crimson Tide, bettors are likely to flock to the visitors in this one. Not only has LSU gone an impressive 7-1 SU in eight true road games so far in 2018-19, they're an identical 7-1 ATS in those contests while going a perfect 7-0 against the spread in their last seven road games vs. teams with home win rates above 60 percent. That said, LSU has covered just once in the previous seven meetings between the SEC rivals.
Points at a Premium?
Some shaky defensive showings have the Tennessee Volunteers teetering on the brink of falling out of the top 10 – so you can expect a more concerted effort on D as they host the Kentucky Wildcats in the biggest matchup of the weekend. Saturday's game represents a shot at redemption for the Vols after they were routed 86-69 at Kentucky on Feb. 16. Yet, while that game cashed the over, these teams have long trended toward the under, having gone 5-13-2 O/U in their previous 20 meetings. The Wildcats are 7-1 to the under in their last eight, while Tennessee is 5-1 to the under in its past six at home.
An Unwelcome Visitor
Winning consistently in hostile territory is often what separates good college teams from great ones – and if that's truly the case, then the North Carolina Tar Heels have to be considered one of the top teams in the country. The Tar Heels carry a profitable road record into Saturday's showdown with the host Clemson Tigers as they look to improve to 10-1 SU in games away from Dean E. Smith Center. North Carolina has covered 10 of its previous 11 road games overall and is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with records above .500 at home. it's also 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Tigers.
Creaky Creighton
Fans and bettors are treated to closely-contested games whenever Creighton and Marquette are involved – and unfortunately for the Bluejays, the last handful of encounters haven't gone their way as the Big East rivals square off Sunday night. The host Golden Eagles have won six consecutive meetings between the teams and have successfully covered all six, with each contest decided by eight or fewer points. The programs have also lit up the scoreboard in recent seasons, going over in five straight meetings – including a wild 106-104 Marquette victory in their previous showdown Jan. 9.
Mid-Major to Watch
UNC Greensboro Spartans (25-5 SU, 12-15-1 ATS, 12-15 O/U)
The Spartans have had an interesting season – wildly successful when it comes to winning games despite not doing anything at an elite level. And yet, UNC Greensboro finds itself well-positioned to challenge for the Southern Conference title after rebounding from back-to-back losses with a three-game winning streak during which it averaged a robust 79.7 points. And they'll need that kind of offensive outburst if they hope to make waves come tournament time.
The Spartans are a top-75 team in points per game (77.0) while ranking 84th in points allowed (68.0), but do have weaknesses that superior teams have exploited. For one, they allow opponents to shoot nearly 36 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks 266th in Division I. They're also below average both at the free-throw line (69.6 percent, 204th) and on the boards (34.6 rebounds per game, 226th), and could run into trouble against strong rebounding clubs.
National Title Odds
Of all the elite teams in action this weekend, the Wildcats might just have the most to gain from a national title odds perspective. Kentucky currently sits fourth in the odds table at +1,100 to win the title, behind only Duke (+240), Gonzaga (+750) and Virginia (+950). Tennessee could also move up in the pecking order with a win; the Vols are at +1,400.
Betting Trends
Road favorites continue to take a bath as we near conference tournament time, with home underdogs going a sizzling 52-41-2 ATS over the previous seven days. Those looking for an edge between road underdogs and home favorites are disappointed yet again, with both sides having posted identical 110-110-5 ATS marks over the past week.
Non-overtime games remain great under plays, converting at a 56.7-percent clip over the last week's worth of games. Only a 23-2 O/U mark in OT games allowed the over to produce a less-dismal 47.1-percent conversion rate for the seven-day period. Unders remain the superior play for the season, connecting 51.9 percent of the time to date.
Only five teams have reached the 20-cover plateau as we enter the final month of the season. Virginia and Michigan State are the most notable teams to have covered 20 or more times through Thursday's games, with the Cavaliers at 20-7 ATS (second overall) and the Spartans at 20-8 (fifth). Drake (20-6-2), Texas Rio Grande Valley (20-8-1) and Mississippi (20-8) are the others.
Comment