The Bum's 2018 NBA Trends/Stats/Best Bets Thru The Playoffs !

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 6


Denver @ LA Lakers

Game 545-546
March 6, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
114.956
LA Lakers
122.577
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+5 1/2); Over

Boston @ Sacramento

Game 543-544
March 6, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
114.601
Sacramento
122.187
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sacramento
by 7 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
228 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+1 1/2); Under

New York @ Phoenix

Game 541-542
March 6, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
111.106
Phoenix
110.942
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
Even
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Phoenix
by 4
225 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+4); Under

Philadelphia @ Chicago

Game 539-540
March 6, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
115.623
Chicago
113.189
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
230
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
225
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+5 1/2); Over

Utah @ New Orleans

Game 537-538
March 6, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
116.964
New Orleans
109.274
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 7 1/2
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 4
231
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-4); Over

Cleveland @ Brooklyn

Game 535-536
March 6, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
107.642
Brooklyn
118.863
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
by 11
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brooklyn
by 8 1/2
225 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(-8 1/2); Under

San Antonio @ Atlanta

Game 533-534
March 6, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
127.371
Atlanta
118.706
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 8 1/2
231
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 6
235 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-6); Under

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 531-532
March 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
116.032
Detroit
124.097
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 8
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 5 1/2
223
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-5 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Washington

Game 529-530
March 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
109.812
Washington
113.171
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 6
231
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+6); Under

Miami @ Charlotte

Game 527-528
March 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
116.486
Charlotte
115.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 3 1/2
218
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3 1/2); Over

[Udog]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Game of the Night: Nuggets (-5 ½, 227) at Lakers – 10:35 PM EST

LeBron James has led his teams to the NBA Finals in each of the past eight seasons, which is one of the most impressive individual streaks in American professional sports. However, his Lakers (30-34 SU, 26-36-2 ATS) may not even qualify for the playoffs in his first season with the Purple and Gold. The Lakers suffered their third consecutive loss on Monday as they fell to the rival Clippers, 113-105 as 3 ½-point favorites.

Since shocking the Celtics at the buzzer on February 7, Los Angeles owns a dreadful 2-7 SU/ATS mark, including five outright losses in the favorite role. The Lakers squandered an eight-point advantage after one quarter in Monday’s setback to the Clippers, while allowing 49% shooting from the floor. James led the Lakers with 27 points, while Rajon Rondo registered a triple-double with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists as L.A. fell to 4-8 since James returned the lineup from his groin injury on January 31.

The Nuggets (42-21 SU, 34-29 ATS) rode a five-game winning streak in mid-February, but Denver has gone backwards of late by dropping three straight contests. After melting down in Saturday’s 120-112 home loss to an unrested New Orleans squad as 13 ½-point favorites, the Nuggets fell behind by 19 points to the Spurs following 12 minutes of play on Monday.

Denver rallied back in the fourth quarter, but were squeezed by San Antonio, 104-103. The Nuggets managed a cover as 1 ½-point underdogs, but Denver suffered its second losing streak of three games since the start of February in spite of 25 points from Jamal Murray. Denver attempted (and made) only four free throws, while cashing the UNDER for the sixth consecutive game.

The Lakers will be without second-leading scorer Kyle Kuzma on Wednesday, as the second-year forward sprained his right ankle in Monday’s defeat. The home team has captured each of the first two matchups this season, as the Nuggets crushed the Lakers in the previous meeting in Denver, 117-85 in late November. Denver limited Los Angeles to 5-of-35 shooting from three-point range, while James was 0-of-4 from downtown. However, the Nuggets have lost in their last four trips to Staples Center since 2017.

NoCal Sweep?

For all the problems the Celtics (39-26 SU, 33-32 ATS) have endured on and off the court this season, Boston finally was able to show the country that it isn’t dead yet. The Celtics crushed the Warriors in the opener of their four-game road trip on Tuesday, 128-95 to easily cash as 6 ½-point underdogs. Boston dropped 73 points on the two-time defending champions in the first half, as Gordon Hayward came off the bench to score 30 points in its first road win since the All-Star break.

The Celtics head from Oakland to Sacramento tonight to face the Kings (32-31 SU, 37-26 ATS) for the first time this season. Sacramento snapped a three-game skid on Monday as the Kings slipped past the awful Knicks, 115-108 as 11-point favorites. Although the Kings didn’t cover, they improved to 15-2 overall this season in the favorite role, but they are flipped to an underdog at Golden 1 Center.

Since the start of December, the Kings have covered in seven of 11 opportunities as a home ‘dog, but have lost two of the past three home matchups with the Celtics. Boston has had its issues with no rest this season by compiling a 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS record, including a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS mark on the road.

Beasts of the South-least

The Southeast division race is the closest one in basketball, although not one team owns a winning record. The Magic fell out of a three-way tie for first alongside the Hornets and Heat after losing at Philadelphia on Tuesday. Charlotte (29-34 SU, 30-32-1 ATS) has lost four consecutive home games, while Miami (29-34 SU, 33-30 ATS) is fresh off a pair of home victories to pull into the top spot of the Southeast.

Since winning five straight home games from mid-January through the start of February, the Hornets own a 1-5 record the last five contests at Spectrum Center. Four of the losses came to the Clippers, Warriors, Rockets, and Blazers, as the latest setback came in Saturday’s 118-108 defeat to Portland. Charlotte has allowed 117 points or more in four straight home contests, while the OVER has cashed in six of its past seven games overall.

The Heat finally figured out the Hawks in Monday’s 114-113 home triumph to beat Atlanta for the first time in four tries this season. However, Miami failed to cash as 10-point favorites to end a three-game ATS hot streak. The Heat have dropped five of their past six road games since February 8, while losing the first two meetings with the Hornets back in October after sweeping the four-game series last season.

Back to the Big Easy

Things aren’t going on script for the Pelicans (30-36 SU, 33-32-1 ATS), who were supposed to fall apart after Anthony Davis demanded a trade out of New Orleans. Things have gone well for the Pelicans lately, who have covered five of six games, while capturing the final three games on their road trip, including outright underdog victories at Denver and Utah.

New Orleans erased a nine-point halftime deficit on Monday to shock Utah, 115-112 to cash as 9 ½-point road ‘dogs, led by 30-point efforts from Jrue Holiday and Julius Randle. Davis played only 22 minutes and scored 15 points, but the Pelicans picked up three consecutive wins for only the second time since Thanksgiving.

Now, the two teams flip venues and head to Smoothie King Center as the Jazz (36-27 SU, 32-29-2 ATS) try to bounce back after having their four-game winning streak snapped. Utah’s offense continues to score points, as they eclipsed the 111-point mark for the sixth consecutive game in Monday’s setback. However, Utah fell to 1-3 ATS the last four games since putting together a 5-0 ATS run earlier in February.

The Jazz have seen plenty of success in their former home of New Orleans by winning in five straight visits since 2016, including a 132-111 blowout in late October as six-point favorites. However, Davis didn’t suit up in that contest, as the Jazz shot 52% from the floor led by Ricky Rubio’s 28 points as the OVER is 5-0 in the past five matchups in the Big Easy.

[Udog]

Hoop Trends - Wednesday
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Kings are 14-0 ATS (+7.89 ppg) at home with less than two days rest after they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Heat are 0-11 ATS (-13.18 ppg) with rest after a win as a home favorite that was tied at the end of the third quarter.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

-- The Nets are 13-0 OU (+12.92 ppg) as a favorite off a double-digit win as a favorite when they are facing a team that is averaging less than six refereed turnovers per game.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

-- The Pistons are 0-15 OU (-12.03 ppg) at home with more than one day of rest off a home game in which they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses.

[Udog]

Wednesday's Top Action
Tom Wilkinson

NBA Game Preview - 76ers at Bulls

The Philadelphia 76ers are road favorites on Wednesday night, as they visit the Chicago Bulls in a game that can be seen on ESPN. The 76ers are battling for third place in the Eastern Conference with Indiana, while the Bulls are out of playoff contention.

Even though Chicago is not going to make the playoffs they have been playing pretty well. Both teams will be playing with no rest on Wednesday, as the 76ers were home against Orlando on Tuesday, while the Bulls were at Indiana. Let’s look at Wednesday’s game on ESPN and NBA picks.

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
Date and Time: Wednesday, March 6, 2019, 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
NBA Odds: 76ers -5, O/U 227
76ers vs. Bulls TV Coverage: ESPN

The 76ers played pretty well last week without Joel Embiid and they will not have him for this game on Wednesday night. Embiid missed Tuesday’s game against Orlando, but he did practice on Monday. Head coach Brett Brown didn’t give an indication on whether Embiid would play, but Embiid said on Saturday that he expects to return this week. Embiid leads the 76ers at 27.3 points per game, so his presence is critical. The most likely scenario is that the 76ers hold Embiid out until Friday’s game against Houston, but noting is set in stone.

One player who has stepped up with Embiid out of the lineup is Ben Simmons. He was names Eastern Conference Player of the Week. In the last five games, Simmons is averaging 20 points, 10.8 rebounds and 7.6 assists. He had back-to-back triple-doubles against the Pelicans and Warriors.

Philadelphia is 13-17 ATS on the road, with 15 games going over and 15 going under. They are averaging about 115 points per game and giving up about 112 per contest.

The Bulls have not been a good home team this season, as they are just 12-20 ATS, with 13 games going over, 18 going under, with one push. They are averaging 105 points per game and giving up just over 112 per contest.

Chicago has actually played pretty well of late, as they had won six of their last ten before Tuesday’s game at Indiana. The Bulls have been much better with Otto Porter Jr. in the lineup. They were 6-2 in the first eight games he played. Keep in mind that before the All-Star break the Bulls had the worst offensive rating in the league. Since getting Porter they have been greatly improved.

Chicago is not going to make the playoffs, but they will have an impact, as 11 of their last 17 games are against teams either in the playoffs or contending for the playoffs.

Key Stats

The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Central. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Atlantic. The Bulls are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. The Over is 11-2 in the 76ers last 13 games playing with no rest. The Over is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 vs. the Atlantic. The Over is 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games. The Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.

[Udog]

NBA Game Preview - Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Kyle Markus

The Los Angeles Lakers’ playoff chances are slip-sliding away. Everyone expected this team to turn it on after the All-Star Break, but the struggles have continued even with a healthy LeBron James leading the way. Los Angeles will need to be nearly perfect down the stretch to have a shot at the postseason, which will begin with a must-win game at home next time out against the Denver Nuggets.

Denver has been much better than expected this season and currently sits as the No. 2 seed in the West. The Nuggets may not have the same star power as Los Angeles but it has consistently been the better team this season.

This could be a competitive showdown as Denver is the superior team while the Lakers have the home court advantage in NBA betting lines.

This NBA basketball game between the Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers will be held at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 6th, 2019. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

Odds Analysis

The Nuggets are 42-21 on the season. They have lost three in a row, and while catching the Warriors won’t be easy, Denver is in good shape to finish with the second-best record in the conference.

The Lakers are 30-34 on the season. They have now dropped three straight games and seven of their past 10 to sink out of playoff contention. Los Angeles is 18-14 at home this year and badly needs to break out of its funk and capture the win.

Injury Report

Brandon Ingram -- The Lakers forward missed Monday’s game against the Clippers with a shoulder injury. The 21-year-old plays a big role for this Los Angeles team so any time away is costly, especially as the Lakers try to make an unlikely push for the playoffs.

Ingram is coming off a really strong performance in February where he averaged 21.3 points and 5.8 rebounds. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but keep an eye on his availability for this one. James remains one of the most dominant players in the NBA but the supporting cast is lacking, especially with Lonzo Ball and now Ingram battling injuries. Kyle Kuzma left the team’s game on Monday with an ankle injury, so his status is also one to watch.

Key Stat

3. That’s the number of games the Nuggets are ahead of the Thunder and Blazers in the Western Conference standings. Few expected this team to be in contention in the West this year but Denver has completely surpassed expectations.

Denver doesn’t have the players with the same cachet as some of the others near the top of the heap, and in a star-driven league, it will be interesting to see how this team performs in the postseason. For now, everything is going well, and the Nuggets would like to pick up this key road win to hold off some of the other West powers aiming to track them down in the standings.

[Udog]

NBA's Top ATS Teams:

1. Bucks 37-24-3 ATS
2. Kings 37-26 ATS
3. Blazers 37-27 ATS
4. Clippers 38-28 ATS
5. Mavs 35-27-1 ATS
6. Nets 36-30 ATS
7. Nuggets 34-29 ATS
8. Magic 35-30-1 ATS


NBA's Worst ATS Teams:

30. Warriors 25-38-1 ATS
29. Lakers 26-36-2 ATS
28. Raptors 27-38 ATS
27. Knicks 27-36-1 ATS
26. Suns 28-37 ATS
25. Wizards 28-35 ATS
24. Bulls 29-35-1 ATS
23. Grizzlies 30-36 ATS

[Udog]

NBA's Top OVER Teams (sorted by Over %):

1. Wizards 40-23
2. Spurs 38-26-1
3. Hawks 37-28
4. Timberwolves 36-28
5. Hornets30 35-27-1
t6. Raptors 35-30
t6. Celtics 35-30
t8. Nets 35-31
t8. Pelicans 35-31


NBA's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Lakers 38-25-1
2. Grizzlies 39-26-1
3. Magic 37-29
4. Mavs 35-27-1
t5. Suns 36-29
t5. Pacers 36-29
7. Bulls 34-29-2
8. Nuggets 34-28-1

[Udog]

By: Monique Vág



Forcing perimeter shots

The Heat have been one of the best teams at defending opposing centers allowing only 19.8 points, 14.1 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. The Heat also rank third in the Association in opponent points in the paint, surrendering only 42.8 a game, and are coming off a three-game stretch allowing only 38.

That could mean trouble for the Hornets’ center Cody Zeller in tonight’s matchup. Look for him to be held in check and take Under his points, rebounds, assists total of 21.5.


Lighting up the scoreboard

The Mavericks have lost eight of their last 10 games, and head out on the road to Washington to take on a Wizards team who have also been struggling, losing seven of their most recent 10. The Mavs have owned the head-to-head meetings, winning nine of the most recent 10 matchups, and five straight on the road.

The Wizards are tied for third in points per game at home averaging 118.2 and give up almost as many defensively with the Wizards ranking 29th in opponent points per game. Look for a high scoring shootout today and take the game total Over 233.5.


Clipping wings

After last night’s big win versus the Thunder, the Timberwolves travel to Detroit to take on a Pistons team who are winners of eight of their last 10.

The Pistons have allowed the lowest points per game to opposing small forwards allowing 17.6 points on 43 percent shooting. Although Minnesota’s Andrew Wiggins is averaging right around that number in the regular season, his field goal percentage is way down from his career numbers, and almost four percent lower than last year. Back Under his point total today of 17.5.


Getting a much-needed road “W”

The Spurs have struggled on the road this season and have lost six of the most recent eight away from home. Today, they take on a Hawks team who own a 3-20 record over their most recent 23 versus the Spurs.

The Hawks will once again be short handed with Omari Spellman and Miles Plumlee out, and Dewayne Dedmon listed as doubtful. Look for San Antonio to take care of business and improve on their playoff positioning today as only three wins separate eighth from third in the Western Conference. Back San Antonio to cover as 6-point road favorites.


Bouncing back in a big way

Utah get a quick opportunity at redemption against the Pelicans after losing at home Monday night 115-112. Utah have won eight of the last 10 versus New Orleans and five straight road contests.

Last time these two teams met, the Jazz gave up 62 points in the paint, which is very uncharacteristic as they only surrender an average of 47.2. Look for the Jazz to guard the painted area better this time around, and force tough perimeter shots, as the Pelicans are not a good team from beyond the arc. Take Utah to cover the spread as 4-point road favorites.

[Udog]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this weekend:

7-1— Rory McIlroy

10-1— Justin Rose

12-1— Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler

14-1— Jason Day

16-1— Bryson DeChambeau

20-1— Hideki Matsuyama

Tweet of the Day
“The Sajak family is deeply saddened to hear of Alex Trebek’s struggle with cancer. Our hearts go out to him and his family. But there is no one I know who is stronger and more determined, and I would never bet against him. We, and the entire country, are pulling for you, Alex.”
Pat Sajak

Thursday’s quiz
Which is the only basketball conference in the country where every team is located in a different state?

Wednesday’s quiz
Draymond Green played his college basketball at Michigan State

Tuesday’s quiz
Tony Bennett went 69-33 as coach at Washington State before moving to Virginia.

************************************************** *****

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Back in December, when I was flying home to Albany from Las Vegas, with a stop in Baltimore, one of the other passengers on my flight from Vegas to Baltimore was Eric Weddle’s dad. How do I know this? The guy had a purple Ravens’ t-shirt on, with “Weddle 32” on the back, and he talked proudly and for a long time about his son to the people sitting near him in the terminal.

It was pretty cool to hear a father talk so glowingly about his son; the Ravens released Eric Weddle this week. Hard to believe another NFL team won’t scoop him up when free agency starts next week.

12) West Virginia 90, Iowa State 75— Watching this game it dawned on me that lot of players are looking tired the last couple weeks. Long season, thin benches, conference tournaments are next week and these are the dog days. Cyclones got crushed here; it was 54-33 at halftime.

11) Seton Hall 73, Marquette 64— Marquette led by 13 with 9:45 left, but Myles Powell went off and the Pirates get a big win, ending game on an 18-0 run. Powell scored 34 for Seton Hall.

10) LSU 79, Florida 78, OT— These teams went OT in both meetings this year, splitting the pair; this was LSU’s 7th OT game this season. Florida had the ball for the last shot in OT, but never even got a shot off.

9) DePaul 101, Georgetown 69— This game was 42-15 at one point; when was last time DePaul led anyone by 27 in the first half? Georgetown played like a team that will be hosting an NIT game in a couple weeks.

8) Basketball budgets in the SEC:
1. Kentucky $18.6M
2. Ole Miss $12.55M
3. Auburn $11.2M
4. Texas A&M $10.4M
5. Alabama $10.3M
6. South Carolina $10M
7. Vanderbilt $9.7M
8. Arkansas $9.2M
9. Florida $9.0M
10. LSU $8.6M
11. Georgia $8.5M
12. Tennessee $8.4M
13. Missouri $8.4M
14. Mississippi State $6.8M

7) Fresno State 76, San Diego State 74— Aztecs choked this game away; they led by 7 with about a minute to play, but turned the ball over a few times and lost for 7th time in last nine meetings with Fresno.

6) Looking thru each baseball team’s top 30 minor league prospects, Miami/Seattle both have 12 prospects acquired by trade, most of any team in majors.

5) New Jersey’s Division of Gaming Enforcement says no to major league baseball’s request to not allow wagering on spring training games. Not sure why anyone would want to, but Garden State bettors can wager on Cactus and Grapefruit League games.

4) Major League Baseball is mandating that managers send their lineup cards into the Commissioner’s Office before releasing them in the clubhouse to reporters, players before games. Baseball wants to ensure that information passed around the clubhouse and the stadium doesn’t provide an edge to gamblers.

They’re pretending that they have no idea that gambling has been going on for a long time.

3) Boston Red Sox pitcher Steven Wright tested positive for Growth Hormone Releasing Peptide 2 (GHRP-2), a PED, is suspended for 80 games. Why would a knuckleballer do this?

2) According to info from the New York Gaming Commission, Rivers Casino in Schenectady generated almost double the slot machine revenue than the brand new Resorts World Catskills in Monticello.

1) Best wishes to Alex Trebek, who announced Wednesday that he has pancreatic cancer. Hope to see him hosting Jeopardy! for many more years. Get well soon, sir.

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, March 7


Oklahoma City @ Portland

Game 549-550
March 7, 2019 @ 10:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
116.043
Portland
122.851
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 7
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 3 1/2
233 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-3 1/2); Under

Indiana @ Milwaukee

Game 547-548
March 7, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
113.478
Milwaukee
126.851
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 13 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 10 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-10 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 7

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INDIANA (42 - 23) at MILWAUKEE (48 - 16) - 3/7/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 95-65 ATS (+23.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
INDIANA is 85-67 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 420-490 ATS (-119.0 Units) in home games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 207-255 ATS (-73.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (39 - 25) at PORTLAND (39 - 25) - 3/7/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after a division game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-40 ATS (-20.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games this season.
PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PORTLAND is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-4 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 7

Pacers lost three of their last five games; Indiana is 3-5 vs spread on road since Oladipo got hurt. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Bucks lost their last two games after a 26-4 run; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five home games. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Home side won seven of last nine Indiana-Milwaukee games, with Pacers winning four of last six; Indiana is 1-3 vs spread in its last four visits to Wisconsin. Seven of last nine series games stayed under the total.

Oklahoma City lost six of its last eight games (0-8 vs spread); they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six road games. Five of their last six games stayed under. Trailblazers won six of their last eight games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine home games. Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games. Thunder won their last three games with Portland; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Oregon. Four of last five series games stayed under the total.




NBA

Thursday, March 7

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Trend Report
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Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Indiana is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games
Indiana is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indiana's last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games on the road
Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Milwaukee is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games at home
Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Indiana
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana

Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Oklahoma City is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Portland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Portland is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games at home
Portland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Portland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City


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[Udog]

Inside the Paint - Thursday
Chris David

Favorites finally came to play in the NBA last night as the ‘chalk’ went 8-2 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread. The Heat and Bulls were the two underdogs to win outright and both of those teams were receiving attention from pro bettors. Including Wednesday’s results, the underdogs still hold an impressive 64-42-2 (60%) mark versus the number since the All-Star break.

Total bettors have watched the ‘under’ go 59-49 during this span and the low side has gone 18-5 since Monday.

Tonight’s TNT double-header features a pair of conference matchups and three of the four teams in action are coming off loses.

Let’s break down the card.

Indiana (42-23 SU, 33-31-1 ATS) at Milwaukee (48-16 SU, 37-25-2 ATS)

May pundits wrote off the Pacers after they lost Victor Oladipo to a leg injury on Jan. 23 but the club weathered the blow and has turned things around. After dropping their first four games without the All-Star, Indiana has gone 9-5 and that includes a 105-96 win over Chicago on Tuesday as a 6 ½-point home favorite.

At the end of the day the Pacers are a .500 team without Oladipo and while they have enough experience and talent to surprise you a nightly basis, it’s hard to imagine them winning a best-of-seven series against in this year’s playoffs.

The Bucks started the second-half of their season with five straight wins but they enter this game off back-to-back losses. Milwaukee dropped a 115-11 decision at Utah last Saturday before collapsing two days later as a heavy road favorite (-13 ½) at Phoenix, which saw the team collapse in a 114-105 setback. Mike Budenholzer’s team was outscored 38-23 by in the final 12 minutes and the Suns cashed ridiculous money-line tickets that had odds listed as high as +750 (Bet $100 to win $750).

It was the first time this season that Milwaukee had dropped back-to-back games and one of the main reasons why the Bucks will go over their season Win Total (48 ½) with a win at home tonight.

These teams have played three times already this season and the Bucks have captured two of the first three encounters, which includes a 118-108 win on Oct. 19 as a four-point home favorite.

Fast forward to this matchup and the spread has more than doubled with Milwaukee opening as a 10-point favorite over Indiana. VegasInisder.com NBA expert Tony Mejia weighs in on the high number for Thursday’s game.

He said, “With sixth man Domantas Sabonis out the past few games and starting center Myles Turner having been out before that, the Pacers have had their typical frontcourt rotation in place only once since the All-Star break ended. Kyle O’Quinn has picked up more minutes and performed reasonably well, but considering the Bucks bring the most stacked rotation of big men to the table with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Nikola Mirotic and Ersan Ilyasova all available, it’s no surprise Indiana opened as a double-digit underdog for the first time this season. The question becomes, is it too much?”

“The Pacers had their full frontcourt rotation in place at home and didn’t have to deal with Mirotic but still ran out of gas at home on Feb. 13, losing 106-97. The Bucks have already seen Wes Matthews in Victor Oladipo’s spot and will be back at Fiserv Forum for the first time since Feb. 23, adding to their advantages. Still, laying so many points against a division rival may be a case of Milwaukee being overvalued considering it has failed to cover its past two double-digit spreads.”

At home, the Bucks have gone 25-5 straight up and 17-13 against the spread which includes two wins since the All-Star break. Milwaukee failed to cover in both of those games and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six played at the Fiserv Forum. As double-digit home favorites this season, the Bucks have gone 12-1 SU and 8-5-1 ATS but as Mejia noted, they’ve burned bettors in their last two spots in this role.

Indiana has been decent on the road (17-14 SU, 13-17-1 ATS) this season but the club is just 1-4 both SU and ATS in their last five trips to Milwaukee.

The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run in the last nine home games for the Bucks, plus Indiana has watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 in its last seven away games. This series is on a 7-2 ‘under’ run and these teams have never seen a total listed in the 220s during this span.

Oklahoma City (39-25 SU, 33-31 ATS) at Portland (39-25 SU, 37-25-1 ATS)

The Thunder and Trail Blazers square off tonight from the Great Northwest and this would be the 4-5 matchup in the Western Conference if the season ended today. This isn’t an easy game to handicap because Portland is returning from a long successful road trip while the Thunder are in terrible form. However, OKC has won and covered all three meetings against Portland this season and will be going for the 4-0 sweep tonight.

Mejia breaks down the fourth and final encounter. “Oklahoma City has failed to cover in its last eight games, losing six outright. The Thunder got Paul George back from a three-game absence on Tuesday due to a shoulder issue but failed to beat Minnesota and saw him shoot 8-for-25, which is disappointing since he took a break after shooting a combined 11-for-43 in losses Sacramento and Denver. He’s not right, which combined with the prolonged shooting slump Dennis Schroder (33-for-105) is on since the All-Star break ended, leaves Russell Westbrook back in the place where he’s having to do too much, which is how come he’s shot the ball 20 or more times in six of eight games during this stretch,” said Mejia.

He added, “Westbrook is shooting 40 percent in OKC’s three wins over the Trail Blazers, averaging 27 points, 11 rebounds and 10.7 assists. Portland hasn’t been in a favorite’s role against Oklahoma City much over the last three seasons – the 3.5 points it opened laying is the second-biggest number in that span – but you can understand why given the Thunder’s current form and the fact the Blazers had won eight of their last nine at home in the series entering this season.”

The Thunder have dropped their last two games as an underdog but they were 8-2 in their previous 10 when catching points.

Portland went 5-2 on the seven-game road trip after the break and could’ve easily been 7-0 if it wasn’t for a close call in Toronto (119-117) and a collapse at Memphis (120-111) this past Tuesday. Winning on the road hasn’t been the staple of success for Portland, rather its dominant mark (24-8 SU, 21-11 ATS) at the Moda Center.

Since the New Year, the club has gone 10-2 both SU and ATS at home. One of the losses did come to OKC, a 111-109 decision on Jan. 4 while the other setback was a bit of a stunner in early February to the Heat (118-108).

Portland started out the season as a solid ‘under’ look at home but those results have balanced out and the ‘over’ is 8-0-1 in its last nine home games. OKC is 19-14 to the ‘under’ on the road and it comes into this game on a 5-1 run to the low side but Paul George sat out three of those contests. Defensively, the Thunder have allowed 121, 116 and 131 points in three road games since the break and that’s another reason why tonight’s total is hovering between 233 and 234 points.

After this game, the Thunder will meet the Clippers at the Staples Center for a back-to-back spot on Friday while Portland entertains Phoenix on Saturday.

[Udog]

Hoop Trends - Thursday
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Trail Blazers are 19-0 ATS (+5.79 ppg) with less than two days rest after a loss in which they shot better than 20% from the arc and led by double digits at the end of the first quarter.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Thunder are 0-9 ATS (-8.28 ppg) as a road dog with rest off a game as a dog when they won two straight vs their opponent.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

-- The Trail Blazers are 11-0 OU (+18.18 ppg) with rest off a road game in which they committed at least four turnovers more than their season-to-date average.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

-- The Bucks are 0-9 OU (-17.11 ppg) as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 61.75 ppg from 2-point range.

[Udog]

NBA's Top OVER referees (min. 20 games):

1. Mousa Dagher 17-8
2. Derek Richardson 26-14
3. CJ Washington 22-12
4. Haywoode Workman 25-14
5. Michael Smith 28-16
6. Jason Phillips 31-18
7. Marat Kogut 32-19
8. Leroy Richardson 27-16

[Udog]

NBA's Top UNDER referees (min. 20 games):

1. Derrick Collins 30-16
2. Courtney Kirkland 29-17
t3. Mike Callahan 28-17
t3. Tom Washington 28-17
5. Justin Van Duyne 24-15
t6. Brian Forte 30-20
t6. Ron Garretson 27-18
t6. Brandon Adair 24-1

[Udog]

Friday’s 6-pack

Top six spending conferences by average budget/basketball team:

1. ACC- $11.2M/team
2. Big 14 $10.2M
3. SEC $10.1M
4. Big X $9.9M
5. Big East $9.5M
6. Pac-12 $7.5M

Tweet of the Day
“I wouldn’t draft him but he’d start for us.”
An unnamed NFL scout talking to Clemson WR Hunter Renfrow’s agent at the NFL Combine

Friday’s quiz
Who was the basketball coach at Georgetown before Patrick Ewing?

Thursday’s quiz
Big East is the only basketball conference in the country where every team is located in a different state; teams are from nine different states, plus the District of Columbia.

Wednesday’s quiz
Draymond Green played his college basketball at Michigan State

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…..

13) Looks like Denver Broncos are going to trade QB Case Keenum to the Redskins, which would put Keenum on his 4th NFL team in four years. Washington needs a QB because of Alex Smith’s broken leg. Keenum is expendable in Denver because they traded for Joe Flacco.

12) When NFL free agency starts next week, Indianapolis Colts will have the most cap room ($106.7M), followed by the Jets ($101.5M).

11) Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs are the only two Hall of Fame coaches from the Super Bowl era who didn’t coach a Hall of Fame QB. Technically, Tony Dungy didn’t either, but only because Peyton Manning isn’t eligible yet. Obviously, Manning is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

10) Oakland Raiders had only 13 sacks last year, least in NFL; next lowest were Giants/Patriots, with 30 sacks each. Chiefs/Steelers led the league, with 52.

9) Los Angeles Lakers mentioned something Thursday about scaling back Lebron James’ minutes over their last 17 games, seeing how they’re just about out of the playoff race.

8) Basketball budgets in the A-14:
1. Dayton $7.25M
2. Saint Louis $6.9M
3. VCU $6.15M
4. Rhode Island $5.45M
5. Duquesne $5.2M
6. Richmond $4.75M
7. Fordham $4.55M
8. UMass $4.35
9. St Joe’s $4.2M
10. George Mason $4.0M
11. St Bonaventure $3.8M
12. Davidson $3.35M
13. La Salle $3.27M
14. George Washington $3.2M

7) Cal Poly fired basketball coach Joe Callero after 10 years at the school; Callero was 65-95 in Big West games at Cal Poly, 6-24 the last two years. Mustangs won Big West tourney five years ago, after going 6-10 in regular season.

6) Oakland beat Youngstown State 88-84 in the Horizon tourney Wednesday; Grizzlies were 32-45 on the foul line, Youngstown was 6-10. Yikes.

5) Saint Peter’s 71, Marist 68 OT— John Dunne coached Saint Peter’s for 12 years, then bolted Jersey City last spring to coach at Marist. In his first year with the Red Foxes, Dunne went 0-3 against his old players- Marist led this game by 10 at the half.

4) Oregon State’s basketball games the last eight days:

— Feb 28, lost 74-72 at home to Arizona; led by 4 with 4:34 left.
— March 3, lost 74-71 at home to Arizona State; led by 4 with 8:08 left.
— March 6, lost 81-76 in OT at first-place Washington; tough week.

3) UCF 58, Cincinnati 55— These teams are likely to meet in AAC semi-finals. Cincinnati is now 10-2 this season in games decided by 5 or fewer points. Tacko Fall’s mom was at this game, visiting from Senegal; it was first time she has seen her son in seven years.

2) California 64, Stanford 59— Cardinal were favored by 11.5 in this rivalry game, but came out and quickly fell behind 19-2 to a lousy Cal team. Stanford PG Davis didn’t play, but he didn’t play in their last game either, when they damn near beat first-place Washington.

1) Easy to say spring training baseball doesn’t mean much, but Dodgers’ OF Joc Pederson went 1-21 in spring games, so he went and played in a “B” game to get some extra at-bats.