The Bum's College Basketball Best Bets/Trends/ News Thru The Madness !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 21


Western Kentucky @ Oklahoma State

Game 765-766
March 21, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
63.718
Oklahoma State
70.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma State
by 7
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma State
by 4 1/2
147 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma State
(-4 1/2); Over

Utah @ St Mary's

Game 767-768
March 21, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
67.811
St Mary's
68.692
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St Mary's
by 1
148
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St Mary's
by 6 1/2
139 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+6 1/2); Over

Illinois-Chicago @ Austin Peay

Game 769-770
March 21, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois-Chicago
54.019
Austin Peay
54.122
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Illinois-Chicago
Even
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Austin Peay
by 4
153 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois-Chicago
(+4); Under

Northern Colorado @ San Diego

Game 771-772
March 21, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Colorado
54.472
San Diego
58.612
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 4
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 2
146
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-2); Over

Jacksonville St @ North Texas

Game 777-778
March 21, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville St
56.542
North Texas
55.418
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville St
by 1
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Texas
by 1 1/2
138
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville St
(+1 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Sweet 16
Monty Andrews

After an absolutely wild March Madness opening weekend we are down to the Sweet 16. Monty Andrews is here to break down some of the underlying betting mismatches for the regional semifinals of the NCAA Tournament, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule.

South Region

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (11) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (7) (-2, 143.5)

Loyola-Chicago's turnover troubles vs. Nevada's sensational TO ratio

The NCAA Tournament's South Region is an absolute mess to bracket-busted casual fans and favorite bettors - and a sight to behold for those who took shots on some underdogs. Two of the tournament more intriguing teams face off Thursday night as the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers tangle with the Nevada Wolfpack; the winner advances to the Elite Eight this weekend, and if it comes down to turnover play, the Ramblers are in serious danger of seeing their Cinderella story come to an end.

On the surface, you might not think the Ramblers have a turnover problem; after all, they finished the regular season with a plus-0.9 average turnover margin and were sensational in their tournament-opening victory over the Miami Hurricanes, finishing with a 16-10 advantage in forced turnovers. But Loyola-Chicago's 12.2 turnovers per game during the season came despite the team playing a slow, deliberate pace on offense - and it actually committed a turnover on 17.1 percent of plays, ranking 257th out of 351 teams.

Contrast that to the Wolf Pack, who took care of the ball like no other team in all of Division I. Nevada ranked fourth in the nation in fewest turnovers per game (9.6) and led the country in lowest turnover rate (11.9 percent). And the Wolf Pack have been even more meticulous with the basketball during March Madness, committing just nine turnovers through their first two games - including a scant two in their upset win over Cincinnati. All those extra possessions could mean big things for Nevada come Thursday.

West Region

Texas A&M Aggies (7) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3) (-3, 134)

Texas A&M's 3-point problems vs. Michigan's stifling long-range D

There have been plenty of incredible performances against high seeds already in March Madness - and Texas A&M is on that list as the Aggies prepare for their Sweet 16 encounter with the Michigan Wolverines. After squeaking past Providence in Round 1, the Aggies put together their best showing of the season in a 21-point blowout win over North Carolina. But getting past the Wolverines and into the Elite Eight will require a much better showing from deep than they mustered in the regular season.

Texas A&M struggled from 3-point range during the year, shooting just 33.2 percent - ranking 269th out of 351 Division I schools in that category. And while the Aggies shot a blistering 41.7 percent from deep in their stunning victory over the Tar Heels, that showing came against a North Carolina team that ranks in the bottom 50 nationally in 3-point defense. This is not a good long-range shooting team - and in a game that is expected to be close, that deficiency could come back to haunt Texas A&M.

The Wolverines will do their best to make sure the Aggies don't repeat the long-range shooting success they had against North Carolina - and Michigan is well-equipped to do the job. The West Region's No. 3 seed limited opponents to just 5.5 made 3-pointers on 16.2 attempts per game - both ranking as the seventh-lowest marks in the country; the Wolverines also hold foes to a 34 percent success rate. If the Aggies do advance to the weekend, it probably won't be due to a newly-discovered 3-point shooting prowess.

East Region

West Virginia Mountaineers (5) vs. Villanova Wildcats (1) (-5, 153)

West Virginia's bad behavior vs. Villanova's foul aversion skills

West Virginia has enjoyed back-to-back laughers against low seeds - but things are about to get a whole lot more difficult for the No. 5 Mountaineers as they brace for an East Region third-round encounter with top-seeded Villanova. West Virginia defeated No. 12 Murray State and No. 13 Marshall by a combined 40 points, but will need to be on its best behaviour - literally - against a Wildcats team that can score at will at one end of the floor and doesn't give up many free-throw chances at the other.

Despite rolling past the Racers 85-68 and trouncing the Thundering Herd 94-71, West Virginia wasn't able to mask its deficiencies in the foul department. The Mountaineers committed 39 combined fouls in the two games, leading to 44 total free throws against - a sky-high number for a team that controlled both games. But that's common for a West Virginia team that ranked in the bottom 50 in free-throw makes and attempts against while averaging a whopping 21.4 fouls during the season, 13th-most in the nation.

That kind of infraction-happy defensive play just won't fly against the Wildcats, who have proven they can dominate without having to worry about being in foul trouble. Villanova ranked 44th in free-throw makes allowed (11.7) and 23rd in attempts surrendered (15.6), and their 16.0 personal fouls per game placed them in a tie for 36th in the country. That 5.4 fouls-per-game difference is significant no matter the opponent - but when it's Villanova with the edge, West Virginia could be in serious trouble Friday.

Midwest Region

Syracuse Orange (11) vs. Duke Blue Devils (2) (-11.5, 133)

Orange's dismal pass defense vs. Blue Devils' awesome ball distribution

Syracuse has the distinction of being one of only four double-digit seeds in the history of the NCAA Tournament to reach the Final Four - and the No. 11 Orange would love nothing more than to repeat the feat as they tangle with the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils in third-round action Friday night. But it won't be an easy task for Syracuse, which comes in as a double-digit underdog that has already lost to Duke by 16 points this season - and it could have a major problem trying to slow down Duke's assist-heavy attack.

Good passing teams had a field day against Syracuse this past season; the Orange allowed opponents to average 16.1 assists per contest - good for 330th in the country - while the 0.761 assists per made field goal they surrendered ranked dead last in the country. Duke exposed Syracuse's shoddy pass defense in their Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season encounter back on Feb. 24, when the Blue Devils racked up 16 assists on just 22 made field goals en route to a 60-44 drubbing.

The Blue Devils' offense is dangerous in many areas, but passing efficiency is certainly near the top of that list. Duke averaged 17.8 assists per game during the season - tied for sixth-most in the country - while ranking 48th in assists per made field goal (0.58); that number has climbed to 0.68 through Duke's first two games of March Madness. If the Orange can't find a way to disrupt the passing lines, they might once again end up on the wrong end of a rout at the hands of the Blue Devils.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Wagers
March 21, 2018

**Western Kentucky at Oklahoma State**

-- As of early this morning, most betting shops had Oklahoma State (21-14 straight up, 16-16 against the spread) installed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 148.5. The Hilltoppers were +175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175).

-- OSU has compiled a 15-5 SU record and an 8-9 ATS mark in 20 home games this season. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS with two outright losses in five games as single-digit home ‘chalk.’ In fact, their lone cover as single-digit home favorites came in miraculous fashion, as they took the cash in a 96-87 victory over Iowa St. in overtime as 7.5-point favorites.

-- Mike Boynton’s team has advanced to the NIT quarterfinals with a pair of home wins over Florida Gulf Coast and Stanford. Oklahoma State covered the number on March 13 in an 80-68 win over FGCU as an 11-point favorite. Jeffrey Carroll led the way with 18 points, eight rebounds, three assists and three steals thanks to 12-of-13 shooting from the free-throw line. Mitchell Solomon added 13 points and nine boards, while Tavarius Shine finished with 13 points and seven rebounds.

-- In Monday’s non-covering 71-65 home win over Stanford as an eight-point favorite, OSU trailed by five going into the fourth quarter. The Cowboys briefly went ahead of the number with a 10-point lead with 3:07 remaining and made a pair of FTs for an eight-point advantage with 14 ticks left. But Stanford got a garbage bucket on its final possession to garner the spread cover. I was on the ‘under’ (154.5 points), which was an easy winner with merely 136 combined points. Carroll was the catalyst once again, dropping 26 points on the Cardinal by draining 5-of-7 launches from 3-point range. Carroll also had seven rebounds, one blocked shot and three assists compared to just one turnover. Kendall Smith added 19 points, knocking down 3-of-5 treys. Solomon was also in double figures (10 points and six rebounds) despite being limited to 19 minutes of playing time before fouling out.

-- Carroll, the senior slasher, hasn’t been able to duplicate his numbers from his junior campaign when he averaged 17.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, and shot at a 53.7 percent clip from the field, 44.4 percent from 3-point land and 80.7 percent at the FT line. Nevertheless, Carroll is OSU’s leading scorer (15.6 points per game) and averages 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists per game. However, his shooting percentages have dipped to 41.1 percent from the field, 33.5 percent form downtown and 77.4 percent from the charity stripe. Smith (12.9 PPG) has a team-high 99 assists and has buried 39.3 percent of his 3-balls. Solomon (8.5 PPG) averages team-bests in rebounding (6.5 RPG), field-goal percentage (54.3%) and blocked shots (1.0 BPG).

-- Western Kentucky (26-10 SU, 22-12 ATS) owns an 8-5 record both SU and ATS in 13 true road assignments. The Hilltoppers are 3-1 ATS with a pair of outright victories in four games as road underdogs. However, we should also note their 3-0 spread record with two outright wins when they were double-digit ‘dogs in the span of three days at the Battle 4 Atlantis down in the Bahamas during the Thanksgiving holidays. That’s when WKU beat SMU (+10) and Purdue (+19), in addition to covering in a 66-58 loss to Villanova as a 22-point ‘dog.

-- Rick Stansbury’s team has bounced back from a pair of lopsided defeats to close the regular season with a 4-1 record both SU and ATS in its past five games. First, Western Kentucky advanced to the finals of the Conference USA Tournament before dropping a 67-66 heartbreaker to Marshall. Since then, the Hilltoppers have posted a home win over Boston College and won at USC to make tonight’s NIT quarterfinals.

-- On March 13, Western Kentucky captured a 79-62 win over BC as a four-point home ‘chalk.’ After trailing by five at the end of the first quarter, Stansbury’s club went on a 40-20 run to take a 15-point advantage into the final stanza. Justin Johnson led a balanced scoring attack with 19 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots. Taveion Hollingsworth added 18 points, five rebounds, four assists and three steals, hitting 3-of-6 attempts from 3-point range. Darius Thompson finished with 17 points, eight assists and six boards.

-- Western Kentucky went into Galen Center in Los Angeles on Monday night and won a 79-75 decision over the Trojans as a 4.5-point underdog. Johnson made 8-of-14 FGAs, scored a game-high 23 points and snagged seven rebounds for the winners. Dwight Coleby contributed 13 points and seven boards, while Lamonte Bearden finished with 11 points, seven rebounds, three assists and three steals.

-- Johnson leads the ‘Tops in scoring (15.6 PPG) and rebounding (9.6 RPG) while hitting 51.8 percent of his FGAs and 42.7 percent of his 3-balls. Thompson (13.9 PPG) has a 174/65 assist-to-turnover ratio and has drained 35.8 percent of his 3-pointers. Hollingsworth (13.0 PPG), Bearden (11.6 PPG) and Coleby (10.9 PPG) are also scoring in double figures, with Bearden producing 122 assists and a team-high 62 steals.

-- Although the ‘under’ is 3-1 in its past four games, the ‘over’ maintains an 8-4 record for the ‘Tops in their last 12 contests. For the season, they’ve seen -- The ‘under’ is 6-0-1 for the Cowboys in their last seven games. They’ve watched the ‘under’ go 21-10-1 overall, 13-4 in their home outings.

-- Tip-off on ESPN2 is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Utah at Saint Mary’s**

-- As of early this morning, most books had Saint Mary’s (30-5 SU, 13-17 ATS) listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 140.5. The Utes were +230 on the money line (risk $100 to win $230).

-- Saint Mary’s has won 18 of its 19 home games, with the only loss coming to Gonzaga, but it is just 6-8 ATS. The Gaels are 2-1 both SU and ATS in three games as single-digit home ‘chalk.’

-- Randy Bennett’s club probably would’ve been safely in the NCAA Tournament field if not for a Feb. 15 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point road favorite. Even with that defeat, Saint Mary’s might’ve inched into the field had it made the WCC Tournament finals. However, that wasn’t to be as BYU pulled an 85-72 upset in the semifinals as a 5.5-point underdog. Don’t feel pity for Bennett and Co., however, as it chose to play a soft non-conference schedule. In fact, Gary Parrish of CBS Sports reported on Selection Sunday that Rhode Island offered the Gaels a home-and-home contract and was willing to play at Saint Mary’s to start the series this year.

-- Saint Mary’s cruised to an 89-45 win over Southeastern Louisiana as a 14.5-point home favorite in its NIT opener. Jock Landale stole the show with 26 points and six rebounds on 11-of-15 makes from the field. Jordan Ford added 19 points, five rebounds, three steals and four assists without a turnover, while Calvin Hermanson contributed 17 points thanks to five treys on nine attempts.

-- Saint Mary’s advanced to the quarterfinals but failed to cover the number in Monday’s 85-81 win over Washington as a 10.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Gaels led by 14 going into the fourth quarter, but the Huskies twice cut the deficit to three in the final 79 seconds. They nonetheless prevailed thanks to 14-of-16 shooting at the FT line. Ford scored 26 points to lead five double-figure scorers. Evan Fitzner had 20 points and six rebounds, while Landale finished with 14 points and six boards.

-- Landale paces the Gaels in scoring (21.3 PPG), rebounding (10.0 RPG), FG percentage (64.2%) and blocked shots (1.0 BPG). Emmett Naar is second in the nation in assists (8.0 APG) behind only Oklahoma’s Trae Young. Naar (9.7 PPG) has a stellar 280/100 assist-to-turnover ratio, has made 40.7 percent of his 3-pointers and has knocked down 85.7 percent of his FTAs. Hermanson (11.3 PPG) and Ford (11.1 PPG) are the team’s best 3-point shooters who are making 44.9 and 44.5 percent of their treys, respectively.

-- Utah (21-11 SU, 16-11 ATS) owns a 5-6 record both SU and ATS in 11 true road games this year. The Utes are 3-5 ATS with two outright wins in eight games as road underdogs.

-- Utah won the NIT in 1947 and finished as the runner-up in 1974, the same year Norm Sloan’s North Carolina St. team led by David Thompson and Monte Towe won the NCAA Tournament. The Utes are gunning for their first trip to NYC and the semifinals since 1992. They had been eliminated in the first round in 2001, ’14 and ’17 before this year’s trip to the quarterfinals.

-- Utah won six of its last seven regular-season games but any hopes of an at-large NCAA Tournament bid were dashed by Oregon in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas. The Ducks won a 68-66 decision over the Utes as two-point favorites.

-- Utah goes on the road tonight after winning its first two NIT games at home. First, it rallied past UC Davis for a 69-59 win but came up just short of covering the number as a 12.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Justin Bibbins led the way with 21 points and six rebounds, while Donnie Tillman and Tyler Rawson added 11 points apiece. Rawson had nine rebounds, four assists, one steal and one block, while Tillman finished with five rebounds and two assists without a turnover.

-- Utah absolutely smashed LSU from start to finish in Monday’s 95-71 triumph as a five-point home favorite. The Utes raced out to a 30-11 lead going into the second quarter and coasted into the winner’s circle. All five starters scored in double figures led by Sedrick Barefield’s 17 points. Bibbins had 16 points and five assists, hitting 4-of-7 launches from long distance. Rawson finished with 12 points, seven boards and five assists without a turnover.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run for Utah to improve to 18-11-1 overall. The ‘under’ has cashed at a 6-5 clip for the Utes in their road outings.

-- The ‘under’ has been a monster money maker in Saint Mary’s games this season, going 22-8-1 overall and 13-2 in its home contests.

-- ESPN2 will have the telecast at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Mississippi State outscored Louisville in all four quarters and coasted to an easy 79-56 win in front of 10,718 at KFC Yum! Center last night. The Bulldogs, who led by as many as 27 points and advanced to the NIT semifinals in New York City next week, won outright as six-point underdogs and hooked up money-line supporters with a +225 return (paid $225 on $100 wagers). Quinndary Weatherspoon led the way with 19 points and 14 rebounds, while Aric Holman added 16 points, eight boards and a pair of blocked shots. Nick Weatherspoon and Xavian Stapleton chipped in 12 points apiece.

-- Mississippi State will collide with Penn State at Madison Square Garden this coming Tuesday. Lamar Stevens matched his career high last night with 30 points to lead the Nittany Lions to an 85-80 win at Marquette as 2.5-point underdogs. PSU closed at +125 on the money line. Tony Carr added 25 points for the winners, while Shep Garner scored 19 points and set a PSU record for most made 3-pointers in a season (112). In his final collegiate game for the Golden Eagles, Andrew Rowsey scored a team-best 29 points. Marquette’s season ends with a 21-14 record.

-- West Virginia didn’t fly back to Morgantown from San Diego until Monday morning after beating up on in-state rival Marshall late Sunday night. With Winter Storm Toby bearing down and expected to bring heavy snow and hail to the New England area on Thursday, WVU will leave for Boston today, one day before its scheduled Thursday departure ahead of Friday night’s East Region semifinal against top-seeded Villanova.

-- Texas center Mo Bamba and Oklahoma star Trae Young both announced their intentions to enter the NBA Draft on Tuesday. Both freshmen will sign with an agent and be lottery picks.

-- After Saturday night’s gut-wrenching loss to Texas Tech in front of a raucous crowd of Red Raider supporters at American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Florida loses seniors Chris Chiozza and Egor Koulechov. From an alum of UF, I want to personally salute Chiozza for a sensational collegiate career. He is UF’s all-time assists leader and with apologies to Mike Miller (circa 2000 with his buzzer-beating layup to beat Butler in the opening round at Lawrence-Joel Coliseum in Winston Salem), provided Gator fans with the most epic game-winning shot in program history at MSG in NYC to beat Wisconsin in overtime last year to advance to the East Region finals. Jalen Hudson has another year of eligibility but may test the NBA waters. Hudson is currently listed as the No. 52 overall picks to the Chicago Bulls in the second round of the latest mock at nbadraft.net. Hudson isn’t ready to defend at an NBA level yet, but he’s what many like to call a “professional scorer.”

-- The same website’s 2019 mock draft includes three current high school seniors who have signed with Duke and compose the first four picks.

[StarDust Bum]

Hollingsworth leads WKU into NIT semis
March 21, 2018

STILLWATER, Okla. (AP) Freshman Taveion Hollingsworth matched his career high with 30 points and Western Kentucky advanced to the final four of the NIT for the first time since 1948 with a 92-84 victory over Oklahoma State on Wednesday night.

The fourth-seeded Hilltoppers (27-10) made 15 of 18 free throws in in the last three minutes to hold off the second-seeded Cowboys (21-15), who missed six of eight shots in the last two minutes.

Western Kentucky will face the winner of the Utah-No. 25 Saint Mary's game in the semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday.

Hollingsworth had a pair of 3-point plays and eight points in a 12-2 run that helped Western Kentucky open a nine-point lead in the first quarter. Kendall Smith and Tavarius Shine each had two 3-pointers in the second quarter to help the Cowboys close within 43-41 at the half. Oklahoma State tied the game once late in the third quarter but after pulling within 80-77 with 2:11 left went cold.

Lamonte Beardan added 19 points. and Dwight Coleby had 16 with 13 rebounds for WKU.

Smith had 19 points, and Shine 13 for Oklahoma State, which was bidding for a school-record 16th home win on the season in front of a record post-season crowd of 11,308.


**********************

North Texas reaches CBI finals, routs JSU
March 21, 2018

DENTON, Texas (AP) Roosevelt Smart scored 20 points, Jorden Duffy added 19 and North Texas used a dominant first half to rout Jacksonville State 90-68 in the CBI semifinals Wednesday night.

The Mean Green (18-17), who play the winner of Thursday's game between Campbell and San Francisco in the best-of-three championship, led 57-29 at the half. They were 10 of 14 on 3-pointers with Duffy going 5 for 5, and shot 70 percent overall (21 of 30).

The lead reached 36 in the second half when North Texas went 4 of 6 from distance and shot 50 percent to finish at 61.5 (32 of 52).

D.J. Draper hit 4 of 5 behind the arc and scored 14 points for North Texas with Zachary Simmons adding 13 on 5 of 6 shooting and Ryan Woolridge 12.

Malcomb Drumwright made 5 of 7 3s and scored 23 points for the Gamecocks (23-13), who shot 23 percent in the first half (9 of 28). Jason Burnell added 17 points and Norbertas Giga 15.

North Texas jumped out to a quick 13-2 lead and a 21-6 run late in the first half broke the game open. Both teams had big runs in the second half but the spread never dipped below 20.

[StarDust Bum]

march madness record: ( overall record+ best bets ) all wagers based on 5 units

03/21/2018 5-5-0 50.00% -250
03/19/2018 9-9-0 50.00% -4.50
03/18/2018 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
03/17/2018 6-12-0 33.33% -36.00
03/16/2018 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
03/15/2018 13-20-0 39.39% -4500
03/14/2018 15-8-1 65.22% +31.00
03/13/2018 7-14-1 33.33% -41.50
03/12/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

best bets:

Ats

03/21/2018.............................................. ..3 - 2..............................+4.00
03/19/2018.............................................. .4 - 5...............................-7.50
03/18/2018.............................................. .2 - 7..............................-28.50
03/17/2018.............................................. .3 - 6..............................-18.00
03/16/2018.............................................. .4 - 4...............................- 2.00
03/15/2018.............................................. .7 - 6..............................+ 2.00
03/14/2018.............................................. .7 - 5..............................+ 7.50
03/13/2018.............................................. .2 - 4...............................-12.00
03/12/2018.............................................. . 1 - 0..............................+ 5.00


TOTALS............................................ .......33 - 39............................- 49.50


over/under

03/21/2018.............................................. ..1 - 4.................................-17.00
03/19/2018............................................. ..3 - 1.................................+9.50
03/18/2018.............................................. .5 - 1................................+19.50
03/17/2018.............................................. .2 - 4.................................-12.00
03/16/2018.............................................. .1 - 3................................- 11.50
03/15/2018.............................................. .6 - 8................................- 14.00
03/14/2018.............................................. .2 - 1................................+ 4.50
03/13/2018.............................................. .0 - 5.................................-27.50
03/12/2018.............................................. .1 - 0.................................+ 5.00


TOTALS............................................ . .....21 - 27................................- 43.50

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Over/under win totals for baseball season

— Philadelphia Phillies, 77.5

— Texas Rangers 76.5

— San Diego Padres 73.5

— Tampa Bay Rays 73.5

— Cincinnati Reds 73.5

— Kansas City Royals 67.5

Quote of the Day

“I grew up in California and I had an aunt that lived in Central California. And when she’d drive to see us, she would stop at the fruit stands on the side of the road, and she’d get these big trays of strawberries. And she’d bring them up to our house, and she would put them into our refrigerator. And every time the refrigerator door was opened, the smell of strawberries would permeate the room. And I could not stand it. And since then, I’ve never eaten a strawberry. The thought of a strawberry is just … terrible for me.”
Tom Brady

Thursday’s quiz
What is the capital of Kansas?

Wednesday’s quiz
John Malkovich played Teddy KGB in the poker movie Rounders.

Tuesday’s quiz
John Calipari went 72-112 as the head coach NBA’s Nets.

**********************

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) It is likely that three NFL teams will start their 6th different Opening Day QB in six years when they open the season in September.

Vikings will be starting newly-signed Kirk Cousins; Houston and Cleveland have dealt away their Week 1 starting QB from last year, so Deshaun Watson will go for Houston if healthy and who knows what the Browns will do at QB, but it’ll be someone new.

It is really hard to win when you have no continuity; Vikings are strong at every other position, but their decision to let Case Keenum walk after he played so well LY will be highly scrutinized. Houston seems set at QB for the next decade if they can keep Watson healthy.

12) Dodgers won 40 more games than the Giants last year, which is eye-opening. San Francisco adds Longoria/McCutchen this year, but neither one of them pitches, although Bumgarner was not healthy last year, and now he is, so that’ll help.

Once your nucleus of talent gets old, it is tough to re-boot and stay a contender without a total rebuild. Will be interesting to follow the Giants this season.

11) Damn, the Red Sox hit only 168 homers last year, least in the AL. My A’s hit 234 and they were a bad baseball team. Will JD Martinez help that correct their power shortage?

10) Speaking of Boston, they’ve got $30M of dead money on their payroll this year, most in the major leagues— Rusney Castillo and Pablo Sandoval account for all of that.

9) Three NFL teams proposed a rule that would limit the amount of early games a western team can play during the regular season. Under the proposal, no team would be scheduled “to play more than three away games with a scheduled kickoff time prior to 1:00 p.m. in the time zone of their home stadium (without consent).”

For instance, during the 2017 season, the 49ers played five road games that kicked off at 1pm ET, which feels like a 10am game to them. Couple years ago, the Rams played a 9:30am game in England, which is a 6:30am start if you’re on West Coast time.

8) Cubs’ 1B Anthony Rizzo has been hit with 70 pitches the last three years, seven more than anyone else in the major leagues during that time.

7) Graceland 83, LSU-Alexandria 80— NAIA national title game drew 6,377 fans in Kansas City, as Graceland, from Lamoni, IA won the championship. Tough loss for Alexandria, which lost in the national semifinals by a basket last year.

6) Louisville sent interim basketball coach David Padgett packing; he’ll be fine eventually, but where do the Cardinals go from here?

If you’re Chris Mack, do you really leave your alma mater (Xavier) for a job where the team is likely to go on probation? Louisville might be a lucrative job, but the fanbase is spoiled and the chances of winning right away are almost nil, which won’t please the fanbase.

5) Western Kentucky 92, Oklahoma State 84– Hilltoppers are headed to New York City for the NIT semifinals next week- they won at USC, then 46 hours later, won in Stillwater, OK. Not an easy thing to do.

4) This made me feel old; Bobby Orr turned 70 this week.

For my 9th birthday, friend of my parents gave me a subscription to Sports Illustrated; the first issue that came in the mail had Bobby Orr on the cover and I became a huge Bruins fan- their loss in OT in Game 7 of the ’79 Stanley Cup semifinals remains one of my saddest moments as a sports fan.

Got to meet Bobby Orr at a minor league baseball game in the mid-80’s; nice man with really bad knees. He was playing in a celebrity softball game and he purposely hit fly balls so he didn’t have to run.

Do a search on Bobby Orr rushing the puck and you’ll see a guy who revolutionized the sport; he was so exciting to watch. Hard to believe he is 70 years old; to me, he’ll always be the guy flying thru the air after scoring the game-winning goal in the 1970 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Happy birthday!!!!

3) There are no instant replays in spring training baseball games; I’m pretty sure the umpires have adopted a “When in doubt, call him out!!” mentality.

2) This is the 11th year in a row the defending national champ in March Madness didn’t make it to the Sweet 16.

1— Combined seeds for the teams in the Sweet 16 this year is 85, the highest total since 2000.

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 Primer
March 20, 2018

Sixteen teams survived the first weekend and advanced to the Sweet 16. Fifty-two schools have been sent home, including a pair of No. 1 seeds in Xavier and Virginia.

UMBC became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed since the NCAA Tournament expanded the field to 64 in 1985. There had been close calls before. Of course, Georgetown had the most famous close call in 1989 when it escaped Princeton’s scrappy effort thanks to an Alonzo Mourning blocked shot of a potential game-winning shot before the buzzer.

That same ’89 Tournament saw East Tennessee State race out to a 17-point first-half lead over Billy Tubbs’s top-seeded Oklahoma Sooners. The Buccaneers still had a nine-point advantage with 6:14 remaining, but OU rallied to win 72-71 at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville.

Michigan State needed overtime to beat Murray State at the 1990 Tournament, Purdue only beat Western Carolina by two in 1996, Albany led UConn 50-38 at the under-12 timeout in ’06 and Cliff Ellis’s Coastal Carolina squad built a double-digit first half lead over Virginia, only to see its five-point advantage at intermission evaporate when UVA took the lead for good with 8:34 left and eventually won a 70-59 decision.

But UMBC wouldn’t let the top-seeded Cavaliers off the hook Friday night in Charlotte. The Retrievers took it to Tony Bennett’s team in a 74-54 win as 20.5-point underdogs. They surged ahead for good by starting the second half with a 17-3 run, and UVA never even cut the deficit to single digits.

UMBC’s stunning run came to an end Sunday when Kansas State playing without its best player Dean Wade, won a 50-43 decision as a 10-point favorite. The Wildcats advanced to face Kentucky at Philips Arena in Thursday’s South Region semifinals in Atlanta.

UK blasted Buffalo 95-75 in the Round of 32 at Taco Bell Arena in Boise, ID. John Calipari’s club easily covered the number as 5.5-point favorites versus the Bulls, who had throttled Arizona by an 89-68 count as nine-point underdogs 48 hours earlier. Buffalo hooked up money-line supporters with a +425 return in the win over Sean Miller’s team.

As of Tuesday morning, most books had Kentucky listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 138.5. Big Blue Nation might not have been happy about being sent to Boise, but it is no doubt thrilled to return to ‘Catlanta, the site of so many of its successful runs to SEC Tournament titles.

Wade, who averages 16.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.9 blocked shots per game, is listed as a ‘questionable’ with a foot injury. Meanwhile, UK’s Jarred Vanderbilt (5.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is also ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury that kept him out of the wins over Davidson and Buffalo in Boise.

This game will tip 30 minutes after the conclusion of Nevada vs. Loyola-Chicago. The Wolf Pack were favored by 1.5 points over the Ramblers, as of Tuesday morning. The total was 143.5 points.

Loyola-Chicago beat Miami on a buzzer beater from Donte Ingram, who lifted his team to a 64-62 victory with his smooth southpaw stroke from about 25-28 feet out beyond the top of the key. Two days later, third-seeded Tennessee went ahead of the Ramblers on Grant Williams’s three-point play the hard way with 10.5 seconds left.

Again, the Ramblers found themselves down 62-61 in the closing moments. And Loyola-Chicago would prevail again, this time on Clayton Custer’s mid-range jumper that got a friendly roll with 3.6 seconds remaining. With zero timeouts remaining, UT had to be happy with the shot it got, a relatively clean look from Jordan Bone at the top of the key for the win at the buzzer. It was off the mark, giving the Ramblers their first Sweet 16 trip since 1985.

Nevada had to pull out similar heroics to survive and advance to just the school’s second Sweet 16 appearance. Eric Musselman’s team recovered from a 14-point deficit to force overtime in its opener against Texas. With the Wolf Pack trailing by one, Jordan Caroline’s putback attempt in the closing seconds of regulation earned Longhorns’ star center Mo Bamba and his fifth foul.

Caroline missed the first free throw but made the second to force the extra session. Then Caleb Martin went to work in the extra session, scoring nine of his 18 points to propel his team to an 87-83 win.

In the Round of 32, second-seeded Cincinnati raced out to a 10-0 start on Nevada. Mick Cronin’s team led 44-32 at halftime and extended that lead to 22 by the under-12 timeout. Sitting on Nevada tickets at +9 and on the money line for a +375 payout, I decided to get in the shower before heading to the sports bar for the next set of games.

To my surprise and joy, Nevada had quickly gone on a 16-0 run and trimmed the deficit to single digits by the time I was out. Hello! At that point, I was just hoping for the spread cover. The Wolf Pack, however, had more in mind such as pulling off the second-biggest comeback in Tournament history behind only BYU’s rally from a 25-point deficit to beat Iona in the 2012 First Four.

Aided by Cronin’s decision to leave Jarrod Cumberland in after he was whistled for his fourth foul with more than 5.5 minutes remaining, Musselman’s team would do just that. Cumberland would commit a silly fifth foul by reaching in 65 feet from the basket with Nevada already in the double bonus.

Nevada would take its first and only lead with 10 seconds left on Josh Hall’s short jumper in the lane. Cincinnati was unable to counter, falling short of the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight time in the Tournament.

Sunday was a day that will live in infamy in the agonizing sports history of the city of Cincinnati. Hours after the Bearcats’ epic collapse, top-seeded Xavier would allow a 12-point lead over Florida State to get away with less than 10 minutes left. The Musketeers committed six turnovers at crunch time and the Seminoles rallied to win 75-70 as 5.5-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a +220 return.

Leonard Hamilton’s FSU team is off to Staples Center in Los Angeles where it will square off against Gonzaga. As of early Tuesday morning, most books had the Bulldogs installed as 5.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 153.5 or 154. The ‘Noles were +210 on the money line.

Gonzaga needed a game-winning trey from freshman Zach Norvell just to sneak past UNC Greensboro in the opening round. Mark Few’s squad moved past Ohio State thanks to Norvell’s first career double-double. He had career-high in points (28) and rebounds (12) in the win over the Buckeyes, who failed to cover as four-point underdogs in the 90-84 loss.

The other West Region semifinal in L.A. pits Texas A&M vs. Michigan. The Wolverines needed freshman Jordan Poole’s game-winning 3-ball at the horn from deep on the right wing to beat Houston, 64-63. The Cougars, who failed to put the game away when Devin Davis missed 3-of-4 free throws at winning time, nonetheless covered the spread as 3.5-point underdogs.

Michigan, my pick to cut the nets down in 13 days, had beaten Montana and covered the number on Thursday night. The Aggies trailed for most of the first 25-30 minutes of its opener Friday vs. Providence, yet they advanced and covered in their 73-69 win over the Friars as three-point ‘chalk.’

Billy Kennedy’s team didn’t trail much in Sunday’s showdown against the defending national champion, North Carolina. Texas A&M surged to a 14-point lead by intermission and never let up, winning in dominant fashion by an 86-65 score as a seven-point underdog. The Aggies hooked up money-line backers with a +300 payout.

As of Tuesday morning, most spots had the Wolverines favored by three with a total of 134.5 points.

Let’s move to Friday’s games now. No. 1 seed Kansas is set to tangle with fifth-seeded Clemson in Omaha at the Midwest Region semifinals. As of Tuesday morning, the Jayhawks were favored by 4.5 points with a total of 143. The Tigers were +170 on the money line.

Clemson absolutely smashed Auburn 84-53 as a 1.5-point underdog after building a 43-19 halftime lead thanks to a 17-0 roll. Meanwhile, KU advanced with wins over Penn and Seton Hall. The Pirates hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to capture a backdoor cover as 4.5-point ‘dogs in the 83-79 win.

The other Midwest Region game features Duke vs. Syracuse. In my Bracket Analysis column last week, I pointed out how Jim Boeheim was in my top five of coaches I trust in March. Since then, the ‘Cuse has ripped off three consecutive wins with the combination of the Orange and the ‘under’ cashing in all three games.

This certainly isn’t a Syracuse team as talented as many others in the past, but it does have great length to execute Boeheim’s zone and stymie opposing shooters. I’ve been saying for more than a month that I simply couldn’t see Michigan State’s season ended on a happy not despite its abundance of talent. This notion came true when the Orange sent the Spartans packing in a 55-53 win as a 10-point underdog. The ‘Cuse cashed money-line tickets in the +475 neighborhood.

Duke throttled Atlantic-10 regular-season champ Rhode Island in the Round of 32. As of early Tuesday morning, most books had the Blue Devils listed as 11.5-point favorites with a total of 133. The Orange was +550 on the money line.

Villanova is set to take on former Big East rival West Virginia in Boston. As of early Tuesday, most books had the Wildcats listed as 5.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 154.5.

Jay Wright’s team wouldn’t have lost to any team in America on Saturday in Pittsburgh. ‘Nova erupted with a staggering performance early in the second half, rapidly turning a two-point game into a complete runaway vs. red-hot Alabama.

West Virginia senior point guard Jevon Carter was probably the Tournament’s best player in the first weekend. Carter had 21 points, eight assists, six steals and five rebounds in an 85-68 opening-round win over Murray State as a 10-point favorite. He also shut down the Racers’ leading scorer, Jonathan Stark (22.0 PPG), who made 1-of-12 field-goal attempts and scored only nine points.

Then in the Round of 32 vs. in-state adversary Marshall, Carter produced 28 points, five assists, five steals and four boards. In addition, he shut down another high-scoring guard. This time it was Jon Elmore, who was averaging 23 points, seven assists and six rebounds per contests. Elmore torched Wichita State for 27 points in the opening round, but he committed eight turnovers and went 4-of-12 from the field in the blowout loss to WVU.

The other game in Boston will pit Texas Tech up against Purdue. The Boilermakers lost 7’2” star center Isaac Haas to a broken elbow in the opener, yet they still advanced past Butler 76-73 thanks to a clutch trey by Dakota Mathias in the final minute.

As of early Tuesday, Purdue was listed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 137.5. The Red Raiders beat Florida 69-66 as 1.5-point favorites thanks to brilliant performances from Keenan Evans and Zhaire Smith. Evans hit the go-ahead 3-ball with just over two minutes remaining vs. UF. He scored 33 of his 45 points for the weekend in the second halves of wins over the Gators and Stephen F. Austin. The Red Raiders are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since Bobby Knight’s team lost to WVU in ’05.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Penny Hardaway will be announced as the new head coach at Memphis at a press conference on Tuesday.

-- Danny Hurley is reportedly mulling offers from both UConn and Pitt. The Rhode Island head coach was scheduled to meet with URI athletic director Thorr Bjorn on Tuesday.

-- The Wesgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s adjusted future odds look like this:

Villanova 3/1
Duke 7/2
Gonzaga 7/1
Kentucky 8/1
Kansas 8/1
Michigan 10/1
Purdue 12/1
West Virginia 15/1
Clemson 25/1
Texas A&M 25/1
Texas Tech 25/1
FSU 40/1
Nevada 50/1
Kansas State 50/1
Loyola-Chicago 50/1
Syracuse 60/1

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 - West Regional
March 21, 2018

WEST REGIONAL

School Odds to win Region Odds to win Tournament
Gonzaga 7/5 15/2
Michigan 17/10 10/1
Texas A&M 4/1 25/1
Florida State 15/2 50/1

Games played at Staples Center from Los Angeles, CA

No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (TBS, 7:35 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Wolverines -3 ½, Total 134

A week ago Michigan played in the last game to tip off Thursday night and it was difficult to watch. After falling behind 10-0 to start the game, the Wolverines pulled out the win and narrow cover in a contest that featured Montana and Michigan making just eight of 31 3-point shots and collectively shooting below 38 percent from the floor.

Junior Moritz Wagner netted just five points and while Kentucky-transfer Charles Matthews led the team with 20 points but he also had five turnovers. The long layoff after winning the Big Ten tournament was cited as factor with some rust clearly showing for a team that made a great late season run to elevate itself to being considered a serious Final Four threat.

Michigan’s late night victory over Houston in the Round of 32 Saturday was one of the best games of the tournament with neither team leading by more than six points in the entire game. Houston led by two in the final seconds but missed a pair of free throws that could have sealed the game and freshman reserve Jordan Poole sunk a very difficult long-range 3-point shot at the buzzer for the improbable win.

Michigan has now won 11 straight games to erase an uneven start to the season and in that run they now have five wins over top 30 caliber teams. The Wolverines have the best defensive efficiency rating that a John Beilein squad has ever had and Michigan has some of the trademarks of a championship contender, committing very few turnovers or fouls while shooting at a high percentage.

Michigan does have a very poor free throw percentage for the season at below 66 percent with Matthews the main culprit in that regard as a 56 percent free throw shooter on the season despite leading the team in attempts and he has made 10 of 16 so far in two tournament contests.

A Sweet 16 showdown with North Carolina was expected this week for Michigan but the 2017 tournament champions were blown out Sunday in Charlotte against Texas A&M. The Aggies outscored the Tar Heels 25-8 in the final 10 minutes of the first half and pulled ahead by 24 points early in the second half. Texas A&M held North Carolina to just 33 percent shooting while dominating the rebounding 50-36 in a stunning blowout for the underdog.

Texas A&M barely slipped by in a tight Round of 64 matchup with Providence and the Aggies had an up-and-down season on the whole currently bookmarked by a pair of a elite wins as they defeated West Virginia by 23 in the season opener in Germany.

The Aggies started the season 11-1 but then lost five straight games to open the SEC season. Mid-season injuries and suspensions disrupted the lineup in January but the Aggies again had a three-game slide in February and failed to win a game in the SEC Tournament as a Sweet 16 run did not look likely for this group.

Like Michigan, Texas A&M has elite defensive numbers with top 20 national rankings in defensive field goal rates all over the floor. Massive size is a big factor in the defensive numbers with one of the tallest starting five units in the nation featuring four starters 6’9” or taller around 6’4” Admon Gilder who is a 40 percent 3-point shooter.

The Aggies have more potential on offense than the numbers might suggest as along with Gilder, D.J. Hogg is a 38 percent 3-point shooter and now injured Duane Wilson dragged down the outside shooting numbers hitting at just a 29 percent clip. Freshman T. J. Starks scored 21 Sunday against North Carolina off the bench and he has become the team’s go-to option in recent games.

Billy Kennedy had the Aggies in the Sweet 16 two years ago, losing 77-63 to Oklahoma while Michigan lost in a thrilling 69-68 result against Oregon last season in the Sweet 16. A closely-lined Elite Eight matchup will await the victor with the West region champion likely to be the favorite in the national semifinal matchup given all the chaos in the South region.

Popular Michigan has been a very strong ATS team this season at 22-12-1 and the short favorite price will be alluring for the common player to back a team with late season momentum. Michigan has covered in nine of the games on the current 11-game winning streak. The Aggies are a losing ATS team on the season but they have a winning ATS mark on the road this season and when playing as an underdog.

No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Florida State (TBS, 10:05 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Bulldogs -5, Total 155

Gonzaga has sights on returning to the Final Four after last season’s NCAA Tournament breakthrough, eventually losing in the championship game against North Carolina. This year’s team didn’t match the amazing regular season put together last year but the Bulldogs are a favorite to advance to the Elite 8, catching a break in the bracket with #1 seed Xavier eliminated.

Gonzaga was far from dominant in two wins in Boise, escaping 68-64 against UNC-Greensboro Thursday afternoon as they saw a double-digit lead slip away to fall behind by two with just over a minute remaining. The same scenario played out in Saturday’s win over Ohio State as a 15-0 start to the game was erased and Gonzaga trailed by five with six minutes to go before pulling out a narrow win to advance.

Gonzaga has struggled with its outside shooting in the tournament so far hitting 31 percent from 3-point range despite being an over 37 percent 3-point shooting team on the season. Killian Tillie hasn’t made a 3-point shot in the tournament after connecting on 13 of 14 3-point attempts in three convincing WCC tournament wins. Gonzaga has also missed 24 free throws in two games to allow the underdogs the opportunity to get back into the games.

Florida State started the season 9-0 looking like a national force though the early season schedule was light other than producing a win at Florida. The Seminoles wound up only 9-9 in ACC play, featuring great offensive numbers but looking like one of the worst defensive teams in the conference. The nine-win mark in conference play also featured three overtime wins as the Seminoles weren’t far from slipping onto the tournament bubble.

Many saw Missouri as a sleeper in the Big Dance but in the 8/9 draw Florida State won easily in Nashville, with standout defensive numbers holding Missouri to only 16 made field goals and creating 16 turnovers. Florida State fell behind by 12 in the final 10 minutes against Xavier but they hit big shots down the stretch to pull out the upset. Florida State forced 18 Xavier turnovers and again displayed a much better defense than the ACC numbers might suggest.

Florida State has great depth with nine players posting double-digit minutes on Sunday and senior Braian Angola is generally the only player on the court nearly the entire game. In contrast Gonzaga has a rather tight seven-man rotation in most games. Freshman Zach Norvell has starred for Gonzaga in the tournament with 43 points but inside scoring opportunities might be limited against the size and length of Florida State.

These teams have two of the better defensive field goal rates in the nation on 2-point attempts as this game could come down to who hits the outside shots and free throws, which have been inconsistent areas of late for both teams. The west coast location and late night time slot is favorable for Gonzaga but another tight game certainly seems possible.

Last season Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 win over West Virginia required a late comeback with the Bulldogs down three in the final two minutes. Florida State’s last Sweet 16 game featured heartbreak in the 2011 Tournament with a 72-71 loss to VCU in overtime. These teams met in the Round of 64 of the 2010 NCAA Tournament with Gonzaga winning 67-60 in Buffalo in an 8/9 game.

Florida State is 17-13-1 ATS on the season including going 16-10 ATS vs. winning teams. Frequently playing as a heavy favorite in the WCC, Gonzaga wound up with a losing ATS mark on the season but the Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS when favored by fewer than 10 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 - East Regional
March 21, 2018

EAST REGIONAL

School Odds to win Region Odds to win Tournament
Villanova 2/3 3/1
Purdue 17/4 12/1
West Virginia 5/1 13/1
Texas Tech 7/1 25/1

Games played at TD Garden from Boston, Massachusetts

No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 5 West Virginia (TBS, 7:25 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Wildcats -5 ½, Total 153

In a NCAA Tournament filled with upsets and featuring two #1 seeds already sent home, Villanova has been one of the few favorites to cruise through two games with wins by 26 and 23 over Radford and Alabama. Friday’s matchup with West Virginia figures to provide a much greater challenge in the first meeting between these former Big East rivals since December of 2011.

Despite being one of the top ranked teams in the nation all season Villanova has been one of the nation’s best ATS performers as well at 24-12 ATS on the season. 26 of the team’s 32 wins have come by 10 or more points including all five postseason games, although the 10-point win over Providence in the Big East final did require overtime.

Villanova has the nation’s best offensive efficiency and elite shooting numbers across the board. The Wildcats are rather reliant on 3-point shooting but they have hit over 40 percent on 3-point shots this season while connecting at a 45 percent clip on 68 3-point attempts in the two NCAA Tournament wins in Pittsburgh.

Moving to Boston won’t be as favorable of a venue for Villanova and weather in the northeast could impact travel and preparation schedules for the teams in this region this week. Villanova is 32-4 on the season but three losses and two overtime wins have come in the last 13 games as there have been some recent signs of vulnerability.

Villanova has a very low turnover rate which is always important when matching up against a Bob Huggins team and Jay Wright has shaken off past tournament failures with the 2016 NCAA Championship and another Sweet 16 bid this year to erase last season’s early upset defeat against Wisconsin in the Round of 32.

West Virginia being in the Sweet 16 isn’t a shock looking at the early season results as the Mountaineers started the season 15-1 and were the only team to beat Virginia in regulation until UMBC’s mammoth upset on Friday. The Mountaineers lost five of six games at one point in January but wound up 11-7 in a tough Big XII and made it to the Big XII tournament final where they lost to Kansas for a third time on the season.

West Virginia has won convincingly in both NCAA Tournament games as well and now draw the region’s top seed in the lone region that has mostly gone to form with West Virginia as the #5 seed the only minor outlier. West Virginia didn’t have to face #4 seed Wichita State as they faced an in-state battle with Marshall on Sunday night, winning with ease in a 94-71 result.

West Virginia has forced 34 turnovers in the two tournament wins while scoring 179 points with efficient inside scoring. Unlike a few recent Mountaineers outfits, this year’s team is an excellent free throw shooting team at over 76 percent on the season, actually hitting nearly 81 percent from the line in Big XII play. Offensive rebounding is always a strong suit as well and the Mountaineers produced 29 offensive boards in the wins in San Diego.

Both of these teams have lesser defensive numbers than in the past three seasons for each program but both has a profile that suggests a Final Four run or a championship is possible. Villanova is the current tournament favorite while West Virginia has a realistic number at 12/1 to sit as the eighth lowest price of the remaining teams.

West Virginia was only an underdog three times this season (2-1 ATS) while Villanova was only favored by fewer than 7 points six times this season (2-4 ATS) as despite the great profile the Wildcats didn’t play an amazing schedule and they are the only Big East team remaining standing. With a quarter of the Sweet 16 teams coming from the Big XII the top rated conference has proven itself and Friday’s game is one of the most intriguing games of the round with a pair of heavyweights that are credible threats to cut down the nets in San Antonio.

No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (TBS, 9:55 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Boilermakers -1 ½, Total 138 ½

This matchup in the late Friday time slot is the only 2/3 pairing of the tournament with only two #2 seeds and two #3 seeds in the field making it this far. Both teams have been tested in the tournament and Purdue and Texas Tech both held on with three-point victories over the weekend to move on to the Sweet 16.

Purdue wound up with a 74-48 victory over Cal-State Fullerton but coming off a long layoff after the Big Ten tournament the Boilermakers fell behind early and looked out of sync. The result proved costly as 7’2” senior Isaac Haas fractured his elbow and seems likely to be out for the rest of the tournament. There remains a long shot hope he could be fitted with a brace to see some action but Purdue was able to hold off Butler in the round of 32 without him.

Butler led by nine early in that game but Purdue took a slight lead by halftime and didn’t surrender it despite the tight three-point final margin. Purdue shot 50 percent in that game including 46 percent from 3-point range and the long range shooting is the key for the Boilermakers with four regulars shooting over 40 percent on the season, led by senior Dakota Mathias at over 46 percent.

The strength of the Big Ten was questioned all season and with the conference featuring only two teams remaining those doubts have been valid. Purdue’s wins over Arizona and Louisville early in the season have lost some weight and against Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State the Boilermakers went just 1-3 with a four-point home win over Michigan being the only top 20 caliber win of the season.

Purdue had elite defensive numbers in the paint this season but the absence of Haas likely changes that equation and Butler shot 60 percent on 2-point looks on Sunday with Kelan Martin putting up 29 points. 7’3” freshman Matt Haarms can match the size of Haas but he isn’t nearly as polished of a player and he had only a minor impact on Sunday’s result with seven points and two blocks.

In what looked like a great opportunity for a breakthrough season for Purdue and Matt Painter the injury is a disappointment but the Boilermakers are still a threat to move on if they can continue the great outside shooting that has carried the team all season. Painter has never reached the Elite 8, losing in three previous Sweet 16 tries as this is a huge game for his legacy and the Purdue program, though with a built-in excuse of the Haas injury.

Texas Tech is an intriguing team with a high ceiling as in two years Chris Beard has transformed the program into a serious Big XII and national threat. Beard ironically got this job in a big part thanks to beating Painter and Purdue in the Round of 64 in the 2016 NCAA Tournament in a 5/12 upset for Arkansas-Little Rock.

Texas Tech was 22-4 and leading the Big XII at 10-3 in mid-February before the team suffered four straight losses amidst some injuries. The Red Raiders are just 4-5 in the past nine games and both NCAA Tournament wins were close calls.

Playing in a favorable Dallas venue, Texas Tech trailed by eight in the second half against Stephen F. Austin in a clash of Texas schools but wound up pulling out the victory with a misleading 70-60 final. On Saturday against Florida Texas Tech fell behind early as well and rallied in the final 12 minutes to pull ahead and seal the victory. The Red Raiders haven’t shot exceptionally well or had significant edges in rebounding or turnovers but the program’s first Elite 8 trip is just one step away.

Turnovers are a concern for the Texas Tech offense as they were ninth in the Big XII on offense in turnover rate. The Red Raiders also won’t want to get into a 3-point shooting contest in this matchup, hitting at just below 35 percent in the Big XII season but the Red Raiders are much less reliant on outside shooting compared with Purdue.

Texas Tech ranks fourth nationally in defensive efficiency and Keenan Evans has the ability to take over games to lead the offense. A wild card for the Red Raiders is senior Zach Smith who missed most of the Big XII season while injured. His minutes continue to go up while scoring 15 points with only one missed field goal in the tournament and could be the biggest beneficiary to the absence of Haas for Purdue.

Both of these teams are on a 2-7-1 ATS runs in the past 10 games ending the season with some suspect results and with slight losing ATS records overall for the season. Both teams also had lesser results away from home venues where both teams were nearly perfect on the season. After playing in favorable nearby venues in the opening rounds the Boston draw isn’t overly helpful to either fan base as the TD Garden is likely to be filled with West Virginia and Villanova fans but the late game is just as intriguing for two programs looking to get over the Sweet 16 hump that has been elusive in recent years.

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 - South Regional
March 21, 2018

SOUTH REGIONAL

School Odds to win Region Odds to win Tournament
Kentucky 4/5 15/2
Nevada 7/2 50/1
Kansas State 4/1 55/1
Loyola-Chicago 6/1 65/1

Games played at Philips Arena from Atlanta, GA

No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago (CBS, 7:05 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Nevada -1 ½, Total 143

-- As of Wednesday morning, most books had Nevada (29-7 straight up, 18-14 against the spread) listed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 143.

-- Eric Musselman must love him some Music City. His team pulled off a pair of wild comeback victories to make just the school’s second-ever appearance in the Sweet 16, prompting him to rip his shirt off during the on-court celebration. First, Nevada rallied from a 14-point second-half deficit to force overtime against Texas. With the Longhorns losing star center Mo Bamba to his fifth foul in the final seconds of regulation, UNR’s Caleb Martin scored nine points in overtime to spark his team to an 87-83 win in a pick ‘em affair. The Wolf Pack made all six of its field-goal attempts in OT. Caleb Martin finished with 18 points, 10 rebounds, one steal and five assists compared to only one turnover in 43 workmanlike minutes of action. Kendall Stephens nailed 5-of-11 launches from 3-point range on his way to scoring a team-best 22 points. Cody Martin had 15 points, six assists, four rebounds and four blocked shots, while Jordan Caroline finished with 14 points, eight boards and five assists compared to just one turnover. Caroline made 1-of-2 free throws in the final seconds to force the extra session.

-- Nevada fell behind 10-0 to start Sunday’s Round of 32 showdown vs. second-seeded Cincinnati. The Wolf Pack trailed 44-32 at halftime and by 22 at the under-12 television timeout. At this point according to Todd Dewey’s Monday column in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, William Hill posted Nevada’s in-game money-line odds at 22/1 and 35 bettors got a taste of the Wolf Pack. Two of those 35 gamblers made $100 wagers and cashed out for $2,200. Then when Nevada was down by 12 points with nine minutes remaining, one bettor at William Hill wagered $1,200 on UNR’s +900 money-line odds to secure a $10,800 payout.

-- I didn’t get any of those lucrative in-game payouts on Nevada in its 75-73 comeback win over UC as an 8.5-point underdog, but I was on UNR for a +375 return to win outright ahead of tip-off. Let’s take a moment to consider the gravity of this improbable rally. Remember, the Bearcats were ranked second in the nation in scoring defense and field-goal percentage ‘D’ for the entire season behind only Virginia. Nevertheless, Nevada found a way to scratch back from a 22-point deficit with less than 12 minutes remaining. The rally, one that ranks as the second-best in Tournament history behind only BYU’s comeback from a 25-point deficit to nip Iona in the 2012 First Four, started with a 16-0 run during a critical four-minute stretch. Mick Cronin offered some help when he didn’t take out Jarrod Cumberland after being called for his fourth foul with nearly six minutes left. This gamble proved to be costly when Cumberland fouled out with more than four minutes remaining on a senseless reach-in 65 feet from the basket with UNR already in the double bonus. The Wolf Pack went ahead on Josh Hall’s short shot in the lane with 10 seconds left for its first and only lead of the game.

-- Nevada made just 6-of-18 (33.3%) from distance and only 9-of-16 FTs (56.2). Furthermore, it was dominated on the glass by the Bearcats to the tune of a 44-29 margin. The Wolf Pack made up this difference by committing only two turnovers compared to 13 assists. Cody Martin was the hero, logging 40 minutes of playing time and producing 25 points, six rebounds, one steal and seven assists without committing a turnover. Hall had the game-winning bucket and finished with 14 points and six boards. Caroline added 13 points, seven rebounds, two steals and five assists compared to one turnover, while Kendall Stephens had 13 points and four boards. Caleb Martin finished with 10 points and five rebounds after missing a good chunk of the first half due to foul trouble.

-- Nevada is ranked 16th in the nation in scoring (83.0 points per game) and 20th in 3-point accuracy (39.6%). UNR is 19th in the country at defending the 3-point line, forcing foes to make merely 31.6 percent of their treys.

-- Nevada has posted a 4-3 SU record and a 3-3-1 spread record in seven neutral-court games this year. The Wolf Pack has compiled an 8-3-2 ATS mark with three outright defeats in 13 games as a single-digit favorite.

-- Caleb Martin is averaging 18.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He’s hit 40.1 percent of his 3-pointers. Caroline averages 17.7 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, while Cody Martin averages 14.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.5 blocked shots per game. Finally, Stephens (13.4 PPG) is shooting at a 44.4 percent clip from 3-point land and making 92.2 percent of his free throws.

-- Loyola-Chicago (30-5 SU, 21-9 ATS) won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament and the league’s regular-season title. Then it beat Miami at the buzzer in the Tournament’s opening round before getting another game-winning bucket with 3.6 seconds remaining to knock off Tennessee in the Round of 32.

-- Loyola-Chicago beat UM 64-62 on Donte Ingram’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer from well beyond the top of the key. The Ramblers won outright 1.5-point underdogs. Clayton Custer, who was injured and didn’t play during three of his team’s losses this season, had 14 points on 4-of-6 shooting from 3-point territory. He also handed out four helpers without committing a turnover. Ingram finished with 13 points, seven rebounds, two assists and one blocked shot, while Aundre Jackson had 12 points.

-- Loyola-Chicago led the entire second half against third-seeded Tennessee until Grant Williams converted a three-point play the hard way to put the Volunteers up one with 20 ticks left. The Ramblers worked for the last shot and Custer, with some help from his own shooter’s touch, a friendly roll or a kind iron, got his mid-range jumper to fall with 3.6 seconds remaining. UT had one final shot and got a good look, but Jordan Bone’s top-of-key 3-point attempt at the horn was off the mark.

-- Loyola-Chicago has been an underdog seven times, compiling a 5-1-1 spread record with five outright victories. The Ramblers faced only one team in the field before making the Tournament. They went to Gainesville on Dec. 6 and led by as many as 13 points in the first half. After the Gators trimmed the deficit to three at halftime, they would get to within one just once in the second half. Loyola-Chicago held on for a 65-59 win as a 16.5-point underdog. Jackson made 10-of-12 FGAs and three of his 3-pointers in a game-high 23-point effort.

-- Loyola-Chicago is ranked third in the nation in FG percentage (50.6%) and 19th in 3-point accuracy (39.8%). The Ramblers are fifth in the country in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 62.2 PPG.

-- Custer leads the Ramblers in scoring (13.3 PPG), assists (4.2 APG), steals (1.5 SPG) and 3-point accuracy (46.0%). Ingram averages 11.5 points and 6.4 RPG while shooting at a 39.6 percent clip from downtown. Cameron Krutwig (10.4 PPG) paces Loyola-Chicago in FG percentage (59.8%) and blocked shots (0.7 BPG), while Jackson (11.1 PPG) and Marques Townes (11.0 PPG) are also scoring double figures.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in seven straight games for the Ramblers to improve to 19-12 overall.

-- The ‘over’ has cashed in three in a row for UNR and is 5-1-1 in its past seven contests. The ‘over’ is 19-15-1 overall for the Wolf Pack.

No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Kansas State (CBS, 9:35 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Kentucky -5 ½, Total 138 1½

-- This is a rematch of an 8/9 first-round game in the 2014 NCAA Tournament when I lost a Kansas St. +6 wager after Kentucky captured a 56-49 win. Julius Randle paced the winners with 19 points and 15 rebounds. Meanwhile, Kansas State true freshman Marcus Foster scored a team-best 15 points in the losing effort. Foster would eventually transfer to Creighton and his career ended last weekend at the hands of his former team.

-- As of Wednesday morning, most books had fifth-seeded Kentucky, suddenly the highest seed left in the region, listed as a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 138.5. Bruce Weber’s team was available on the money line for a +210 payout (risk $100 to win $210).

-- Since losing its fourth straight game on Valentine’s Day at Auburn, Kentucky (26-10 SU, 19-17 ATS) is on a 9-1 run both SU and ATS in its last 10 games. The only hiccup came in the regular-season finale at Florida when the Gators ran the ‘Cats out of the gym to complete a season sweep. John Calipari’s team immediately regrouped, though, and then ripped off three straight victories to win the SEC Tournament.

-- Calipari wasn’t happy when UK was sent to Boise to play on a Thursday after it had to play three games in three days from Friday-Sunday at the SEC Tourney. As it turned out, the committee couldn’t possibly have been nicer to his program. Arizona, a potential Round of 32 foe, was blown out by Buffalo. Virginia, the Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed and a potential opponent in the South Region semifinals, was sent packing by UMBC in a lopsided defeat. So now, UK is the ‘chalk’ to win the region and gets to play in the city Big Blue Nation dubbed ‘Catlanta decades ago.

-- Kentucky handled its business at Taco Bell Arena on Thursday night, capturing a 78-73 win over a red-hot and very game Davidson team. The line had been UK by six early in the week, but it closed at 4.5 to allow UK supporters to cash tickets. The game was tied at the under-8 TV timeout, but Davidson was unable to inch ahead at any point after the opening minutes of the game. Kevin Knox led the winners with 25 points and six rebounds. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 19 points, eight rebounds, five steals and seven assists compared to just two turnovers.

-- UK brought a halt to Buffalo’s Cinderella story by making a late run to pull away for a 95-75 win as a 5.5-point favorite. This was a misleading final score, however, as the Bulls trailed by only five points with 7:45 remaining. Gilgeous-Alexander was nothing short of sensational, draining 10-of-12 FGAs and both 3-point attempts in a game-high 27-point effort. SGA also had six rebounds, six assists and two steals. Hamidou Diallo added 22 points, eight rebounds and a pair of blocked shots, while Wenyen Gabriel buried 3-of-5 looks from downtown on his way to scoring 16 points and pulling down 12 rebounds to go with two blocked shots. P.J. Washington finished with 12 points, seven boards, two steals and a pair of assists.

-- Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 14.4 points, 5.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 0.5 blocked shots per game. His play has been even better over the course of the past nine games, as SGA has averaged 19.4 points, 7.6 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. During this stretch, he has a 68/22 assist-to-turnover ratio.

-- Kentucky has covered the spread in seven straight games as a single-digit favorite. For the season, UK owns a 12-7 spread record with three outright defeats in 19 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

-- Knox is UK’s leading scorer with a 15.7 PPG average. He also averages 5.3 RPG and makes 34.1 percent of his 3-pointers. Washington (10.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Diallo (10.2 PPG) are also averaging in double figures.

-- Jarred Vanderbilt (5.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG) missed nearly three months of the regular season before making his season debut in an overtime win over Vanderbilt on Jan. 30. The 6’9” freshman center out of Houston has missed five games in a row with a sprained ankle, but he’s been upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. KSU.

-- Kansas State (24-11 SU, 15-17 ATS) played without its leading scorer and rebounder this past weekend and still advanced to its first Sweet 16 for the first time in eight years. Frank Martin led K-State to the Elite Eight in the 2010 Tournament behind the play of Rodney McGruder before bowing out against Butler.

--Weber has KSU in the Tournament for the fourth time in his six-year tenure. His team made the Round of 32 by dispatching of Creighton by a 69-59 count as a two-point underdog this past Friday in Charlotte. Barry Brown led the way with 18 points, six rebounds, three assists, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. Mike McGuirl buried 3-of-5 bombs from long distance in a 17-point effort, while Kamau Stokes contributed 11 points, four rebounds and three assists. The KSU defense stymied Foster, the Bluejays’ leading scorer, holding him to five points on 2-of-11 FGAs.

-- Kansas State was favored by 10.5 points in Sunday’s Round of 32 matchup with UMBC, which had become the first No. 16 seed in Tournament history to beat a No. 1 seed 48 hours earlier. KSU won a defensive struggle, 50-43, but failed to cover the spread. Brown went for 18 points again on 8-of-8 shooting from the FT line. Makol Mawien added 11 points, six rebounds and two blocked shots for the winners.

-- Kansas State gets its star Dean Wade back vs. UK. Wade, who has missed three straight games with a foot injury, practiced Monday and Tuesday and has been upgraded to ‘probable.’ Wade paces K-St. in scoring (16.5 PPG), rebounding (6.3 RPG) and FG percentage (55.0%) and averages 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per game. He has an 89/47 assist-to-turnover ratio and drains 44.0 percent of his 3-pointers.

-- Brown (16.1 PPG) leads K-St. in assists (3.3 APG) and steals (1.8). Xavier Sneed averages 10.7 points and 4.9 RPG.

-- K-State has compiled an 8-8 spread record with seven outright victories in 16 games as an underdog.

-- Kansas State faced a pair of SEC teams during the regular season, winning 84-79 at Vanderbilt as a one-point underdog. KSU rallied to beat Georgia 56-51 as a seven-point home favorite, but UGA backers took the money.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive UK games and nine of its past 10 to improve to 22-13 overall.

-- The ‘under’ is 20-11-1 overall for Kansas St. after cashing on both of its games in the Tournament’s first weekend.

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 - Midwest Regional
March 21, 2018

MIDWEST REGIONAL

School Odds to win Region Odds to win Tournament
Duke 2/3 15/4
Kansas 7/1 50/1
Clemson 8/1 35/1
Syracuse 20/1 75/1

Games played at CenturyLink Center from Omaha, NE

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 5 Clemson (CBS, 7:05 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Jayhawks -4 ½, Total 142 ½

-- As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Kansas (29-7 straight up, 19-15 against the spread) installed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 143. The Tigers were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Sportsbook.ag has Duke as the -150 favorite to win the Midwest Region, while KU has the second-shortest odds at +175 (risk $100 to win $175). Clemson has 8/1 odds to make it to San Antonio, while Syracuse is the 20/1 longshot. The offshore website has Duke and Kansas with the second and third-shortest odds to win the national title (behind the 3/1 ‘chalk,’ Duke) at +375 and +700, respectively.

-- Bill Self’s club has won five consecutive games since getting blasted 82-64 at Oklahoma State in its regular-season finale. KU covered the spread in the first four games of the winning streak, but Seton Hall hit a meaningless (or not!) buzzer-beating 3-pointer to post a backdoor cover as a 4.5-point underdog in its 83-79 loss to the Jayhawks in the Round of 32.

-- Kansas fell behind No. 16 seed Penn by double digits in the early going of Thursday’s first-round game, only to recover and take a seven-point advantage into halftime. The Jayhawks would go on to collect a 76-60 victory and take the cash as 13.5-point favorites. Devonte’ Graham torched the Quakers for 29 points, six rebounds, three steals and six assists compared to just two turnovers. Lagerald Vick had 14 points, while Mitch Lightfoot added nine points, 11 boards and three blocked shots.

-- KU is ranked 29th in the nation in scoring (81.4 points per game), 12th in field-goal percentage (49.6%) and 11th in 3-point accuracy (40.3%).

-- Malik Newman stole the show against Seton Hall, dropping 28 points on the Pirates by draining 8-of-14 FGAs, 4-of-8 treys and 8-of-8 free-throw attempts. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk added 16 points, while Udoka Azubuike finished with 10 points, seven rebounds, two assists, two steals and two blocked shots.

-- Kansas has been a single-digit favorite 16 times this year, posting an 8-7-1 spread record with three outright defeats.

-- If KU can advance past Clemson, it will have another ACC team waiting for it in the Midwest Region finals. The Jayhawks faced one ACC team in the regular season and it was potential Sunday opponent, Syracuse. This game was played down in Miami at American Airlines Arena on Dec. 2, with KU knocking off the Orange 76-60 as a 9.5-point ‘chalk.’ Graham dropped 35 points on the ‘Cuse, burying 7-of-13 launches from downtown. Vick had 20 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and two steals.

-- Graham is KU’s unquestioned leader who paces his team in scoring (17.4 points per game), assists (7.5 APG), steals (1.6 SPG), minutes (37:38 MPG) and free-throw percentage (83.3%). Mykhailiuk averages 15.0 PPG and has hit 45.5 percent of his 3-balls, while Newman (13.4 PPG) has made 40.9 percent of his treys and 82.8 percent of his FTs.

-- Clemson (25-9 SU, 19-12 ATS) is taking advantage of its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2011. The Tigers are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1997 and only the fourth time in program history. They made their only Elite Eight in 1980, getting denied in 1990 when Tate George’s buzzer beater from the baseline off a length-of-the-court pass beat Cliff Ellis’s team that included Elden Campbell, Dale Davis and Marion Cash, a point guard from the Bronx. Clemson is still seeking its first Final Four appearance in school history.

-- Clemson came into the Tournament riding a 3-5 slump both SU and ATS in its previous eight games. However, Brownell’s squad has taken advantage of its fresh slate by defeating New Mexico St. and Auburn. The Tigers captured a 79-68 win over the Aggies this past Friday as 3.5-point favorites. They led by 12 at halftime and by as many as 17 points in the second half. Shelton Mitchell was terrific with 23 points, three rebounds and five assists without a turnover. Mitchell hit 8-of-13 FGAs, 2-of-3 treys and 5-of-5 FTs. Gabe DeVoe made 10-of-15 FGAs in a 22-point effort, while Marcquise Reed contributed 15 points, seven rebounds and three steals.

-- In the Round of 32, Clemson dealt out a pimpslap of epic proportions to Auburn. Brownell’s team led 43-19 at intermission and coasted to an 84-53 victory as a 1.5-point underdog. DeVoe was the catalyst with 22 points, five rebounds and five assists. The senior guard buried 6-of-9 launches from downtown and 8-of-13 FGAs, while Elijah Thomas produced 18 points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots. Reed finished with 16 points, seven boards and three assists, while Mitchell had 10 points, six boards and six assists.

-- Reed leads Clemson in scoring (15.8 PPG) and steals (1.7 SPG). DeVoe averages 13.7 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game while making 39.9 percent of his 3-pointers. Thomas (10.9 PPG) paces the Tigers in rebounding (8.1 RPG), FG percentage (56.7%) and blocked shots (2.2 BPG), and Mitchell (12.2 PPG) has a 117/66 assist-to-turnover ratio and hits 37.1 percent of his 3-balls.

-- Clemson has posted a 6-4 spread record with four outright victories in 10 games as an underdog.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 for the Tigers in their last four contests to improve to 16-15 overall.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Jayhawks (17-17-1), but they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their past four games.

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 11 Syracuse (CBS, 9:35 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Blue Devils -11 ½, Total 133 ½

-- As of Wednesday, most spots had Duke (28-7 SU, 22-11 ATS) listed as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 133.5. The Orange was +550 on the money line (risk $100 to win $550).

-- When these teams met on Feb. 24 at Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke pulled away for a 60-44 win as a 14-point home ‘chalk.’ The 104 combined points easily glided ‘under’ the 143.5-point total. Marvin Bagley III scored 19 points and grabbed seven rebounds to lead the Blue Devils. Wendell Carter Jr. finished with 16 points, 10 boards, four assists, four steals and a pair of blocked shots. We will note that Grayson Allen went 0-for-6 from downtown against the ‘Cuse’s zone defense. Tyus Battle had 12 points, four boards, two assists and two steals for the Orange in the losing effort. Frank Howard contributed 11 points, seven assists and three rebounds.

-- Syracuse won the lone encounter between these adversaries last season and in 2016. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in past four head-to-head meetings.

-- Duke is 12-7 ATS with three outright losses (at Boston College, vs. N.C. St. and at St. John’s) in 19 games as a double-digit favorite this season.

-- Mike Krzyzewski’s club is 9-2 both SU and ATS in its last 11 games, including a pair of spread covers in the first weekend of the Tournament. Duke bested Iona 89-67 as a 20.5-point ‘chalk’ in the opening round behind 22 points and seven rebounds from Bagley. Trevon Duval added 19 points and eight assists, while Allen and Gary Trent Jr. scored 16 points apiece.

-- Duke thumped Rhode Island 87-62 as a nine-point favorite in the Round of 32. All five starters scored in double figures led by Bagley’s 22 points and nine rebounds. Trent added 18 points, five rebounds, three steals and four assists compared to only one turnover.

-- Duke has lost in the Sweet 16 round in eight of its last 13 region-semifinal games. On the flip side, Boeheim and the ‘Cuse have three straight Sweet 16 games.

-- Bagley averages 21.2 points and 11.3 RPG, making 61.3 percent of his FGAs. Allen averages 15.6 points, 4.6 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game, while Trent (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) is hitting 41.7 percent of his 3-pointers and 87.2 percent of his FTs. Carter (13.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG) has made 44.2 percent of his 3-balls and averages a team-best 2.1 blocked shots per contest. Duval (10.2 PPG) has 197 assists and 51 steals, but he makes just 59.6 percent of his FTs. When he struggles, it has a huge impact on the Blue Devils, who give Allen the bulk share of the ball-handling duties when Duval is out of the game. Allen is much more effective playing off the ball.

-- Jim Boeheim’s squad is 5-1 both SU and ATS in its last six games. Starting with its First Four win over Arizona State last week, the combination of Syracuse and the ‘under’ was a parlay casher in all three of the Orange’s Tournament wins. Those three ‘unders’ had combined scoring outputs of 108, 109 and 116 points.

-- Syracuse (23-13 SU, 17-17 ATS) beat ASU 60-56 as a 1.5-point underdog in Dayton to earn a shot at sixth-seeded TCU in Detroit on Friday. The Orange defeated the Horned Frogs 57-52 as a 4.5-point underdog, forcing Jamie Dixon’s club into an abysmal 3-of-17 shooting night form beyond the arc. That’s Boeheim’s zone paying off, as his long defenders can effectively contest smaller shooters camped out behind the 3-point line. Marek Dolezaj led the ‘Cuse with 17 points, while Oshae Brissett contributed 13 points, nine rebounds, three blocked shots, one steal and one assists without committing a turnover.

-- Syracuse followed up the TCU win by stunning Michigan St. 55-53 as a 10-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a +500 return. The zone defense did a number on the Spartans, who made merely 17-of-66 FGAs (25.8%) and scored only 53 points despite grabbing 26 offensive rebounds. Tyus Battle scored 17 points on 9-of-10 shooting from the FT line, while Brissett finished with 15 points and nine rebounds. Frank Howard had 13 points despite fouling out with nearly six minutes remaining.

-- Syracuse is ranked 10th in the country in scoring defense (63.6 PPG), fifth in FG percentage ‘D’ (39.1%) and 33rd at defending the 3-point line (32.1%).

-- Syracuse is 7-3 ATS with six outright wins in its past 10 games as an underdog.

-- The ‘under’ is 20-14 overall for the ‘Cuse after cashing in four straight games.

-- The ‘under’ is on an 8-2 run for the Blue Devils, but they’ve still seen the ‘over’ go 18-15 overall.

-- Duke has had only one total lower than 143 points this year. That was the 134-point tally in its 65-63 home loss to Virginia that saw the ‘under’ prevail with the 128 combined points.

-- These schools have squared off in the NCAA Tournament twice. In the South Region final of the 1966 Tournament, Duke won by a 91-81 count over a team that Boeheim played on. Then in the 1998 Tournament, I was at The Trop in St. Petersburg to witness Duke’s 80-67 victory as a 13-point favorite. Elton Brand and Shane Battier led an 11-0 run to break a 49-49 tie and the Blue Devils held on to win.

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 Angles
March 21, 2018

With the 2018 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let’s take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year.

Do these experienced teams perform with aplomb, or do they bomb? It all depends on the situation. Let’s take a peek.

ALL HANDS ON DECK

For the third time in the last four years a total of six teams return to the Sweet 16 after having been there the previous season. They include Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Purdue, and West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 85-52 SU but only 61-70-5 ATS in this round of the tourney – including 4-1 SU and 3-0-2 ATS last season.

The key is finding edges that turn these familiar teams in moneymaking roles. The cut-line is often times the situation surrounding the game. Check some of them out below.

NOT QUITE A 10

Looking at it from a varied perspective, SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle arriving off a win of less than 10 points when facing a foe off a win of 10 or more points, going just 13-17 SU and 8-19-3 ATS.

This year finds two of the six returnees in this spotty role – Kansas and Michigan. Making matters worse, if any of these sweet tomatoes is a No. 3 or lower seed they fall to 3-13 SU and 3-12-1 ATS. Not particularly good news for the Wolverines.

COLD DIGGETY DOG

Another major role Sweet 16 Returnees have a difficult time responding to be whenever they are placed in an underdog position. Simply put, these teams coming back to the Sweet 16 are 4-17 SU and 6-14-1 ATS as underdogs when facing .840 or greater opponents, including 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS when the foe is off a SUATS win. Read: West Virginia.

Worse, these same teams are just 1-8 SUATS when arriving off a spread win of 5 or more points. It was nice, West-by-God.

SEEDY DEVELOPMENT

As expected, #1 seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 29-2 SU and 19-12 ATS when facing fattened foes foes arriving off consecutive ATS wins. They are at their best, however, when facing sub .800 foes in this role, going 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS, including 5-0 SUATS when not favored by 6 or more points.

Suddenly it’s good news for Kansas, especially when you realize they are not deeply affected in the ‘Not Quite A 10’ concept outlined above.

There you have it. When swimming in Sweet 16 waters, make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the Sweet 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have ‘been-there-and-done-that’. Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean...

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA tournament

Thursday’s NCAA games

Kentucky won/covered its last six Sweet 16 games, and they were underdog in three of those; Wildcats are 13-2 outside the SEC- 8 of those 15 games were against top 100 teams, with 65-61 loss to Kansas, 83-76 win over West Va. Kentucky won nine of its last ten games; they’re least experienced team in country that has #17 eFG% defense. Kansas State won four of its last five games, allowing 53 ppg in first two tourney games; they’re 2-0 vs SEC teams, beating Vandy/Georgia, both by 5 points. Last five years, Big X teams are only 3-8 in Sweet 16 games.

Nevada played only six guys last weekend; they trailed Texas by 14, Cincinnati by 22, but won both games without playing one possession of zone defense. Wolf Pack are 2-0 vs MVC teams this season, beating Illinois St by 30, so Illinois by 22- they’re 13-3 outside Mountain West- they start three juniors, two seniors (#42 experience team). Loyola won its two games last weekend by total of 3 points; they won last 12 games. Ramblers lost by 34 at Boise State in their only MW game this season. Oddly, Loyola is #14 in country at shooting 3’s (40%); Nevada is #14 in county at defending the 3-pointer (31.6%).

Last 10 years, underdogs are 5-1 vs spread when #’s 3-7 seeds meet in Sweet 16. Texas A&M won five of its last games; they’re 13-1 outside SEC, with only loss by 3 to Arizona in Phoenix. Aggies are #235 experience team that started season in Germany with win over West Va- they beat Penn State by 11 in only Big 14 game. A&M starts three juniors- their bench plays #62 minutes in country, so they’ve got depth. Michigan won last 11 games but needed last second 3-pointer to nip Houston and get here; Wolverines lost 77-75 to LSU in only SEC game- they won two of last three Sweet 16 games, losing 69-68 to Oregon LY.

Gonzaga is in Sweet 16 for 4th year in row, winning in this round two of last three years- they’ve won their last 16 games, winning last weekend by 4-6 points. Zags are #241 experience team that is 12-3 outside WCC (#80 NC sked). Florida State was down 14 to Xavier Sunday but KO’d #1-seed Xavier; since 2005, #8-9 seeds are 3-3 vs spread in Sweet 16 games, after they had KO’d the #1 seed. Seminoles are experience team #222; they’re 13-1 outside ACC (NC sked #329), losing 71-70 to Oklahoma St. This is Florida State’s first Sweet 16 since 2011.

Other tournaments

Thursday’s other tournaments

Sam Houston State is only 3-7 outside Southland Conference; they also had four non-D-I wins- they played #51 non-conference schedule. Bearkats start four juniors and a senior; they played four starters 31:00+ in Monday’s home win over Eastern Michigan. Sam Houston is experience team #21 that plays pace #241- they force turnovers 20.2% of time (#71)- they lost four of last six true road games. UTSA is 9-3 in its last 12 games; they won by 14-16-7 points in their three games vs Southland foes this season. Roadrunners start three sophomores, two juniors.

Campbell Camels lost four of last five true road games; their last one was Feb 22. Camels are 6-6 outside Big South (#338 NC schedule)- they make 38.5% of their 3’s. Campbell’s best player is a 5-9 guard; they start two sophs, two juniors (experience team #199), and played three starters 31:00+ in Monday’s home win over New Orleans. San Francisco is 8-3 in its last 11 games; they won seven of last eight home games. Dons are #266 experience team that plays pace #244- they beat Big South champ Radford by 11 at home in December.

[StarDust Bum]

Teams to Watch - Sweet 16
March 20, 2018

March Madness Odds – Sweet 16 Preview

This has already been an NCAA Tournament full of surprises. We had our first No. 16 team to ever knock off a No. 1, and two No. 1 seeds have already crashed out of the tournament.

Two brackets have been busted wide open. Both the West Region and the South Region are completely up for grabs at this point, due to some of the upsets we saw last week.

In the East Region and the Midwest Region, the chalk mostly prevailed. That will ensure some tough matchups between top teams in the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight for those regions.

All Sweet 16 games will take place on either CBS or TBS on Thursday and Friday night.

Odds to Win 2018 NCAA Tournament

Villanova +347
Duke +361
Kentucky +749
Kansas +835
Gonzaga +842
Michigan +869
Purdue +1387
West Virginia +1530
Texas A&M +1971
Texas Tech +2513
Clemson +3986
Kansas State +4128
Florida State +5300
Nevada +6700
Syracuse +8000
Loyola Chicago +9500

The Favorites

Villanova was considered the favorite coming into the NCAA Tournament, and the Wildcats are still the favorite at this point. Nova has left no doubt who the better team was in its previous two games, comfortably knocking off Radford and Alabama. This is the best jump shooting team in the country and Nova plays great defense too.

Duke is slightly behind Nova in terms of the odds. The Blue Devils probably have the most talent of any of the teams in the NCAA Tournament, but that talent hasn’t always melded well together. Marvin Bagley III has been incredible, and Grayson Allen has done Grayson Allen things. However, Duke has had some major defensive lapses this season.

The Contenders

John Calipari may have been upset about Kentucky’s draw before the NCAA Tournament got underway, but there’s no doubt he was celebrating it after all the upsets unfolded over the first weekend. Kentucky is now in a bracket with Nevada, Kansas State, and Loyola-Chicago, and the Wildcats are the odds-on favorite to win the South. This team is still very young, and there are major question marks around them, but they may not get a real test until the Final Four.

Gonzaga is another team celebrating the chaos of March Madness. Although the Bulldogs haven’t been extremely convincing in wins over UNC Greensboro and Ohio State, they are the favorite in their region after North Carolina and Xavier lost. Gonzaga has no weaknesses in its starting lineup and has a very good player on its bench too. That makes Gonzaga a team to watch.

Purdue is known as an engineering school and its brightest minds are hard at work coming up with something that will make center Isaac Haas able to play for the rest of the tournament. Haas fractured his elbow in the first game and was thought to be lost for the rest of the year, but the injury was not as bad as feared and he may be able to play this weekend. If he can, his size makes Purdue a tough match-up for opponents.

The Longshots

Texas Tech is one of the first longshots to take a look at. The Red Raiders have been a good team all year long and earned a No. 3 seed for a reason. The Big 12 has been very tough this season, and the fact that Texas Tech survived it makes this team dangerous.

Syracuse should not be this big of an underdog either. The Orange just became the first team ever to make it from the First Four to the Sweet 16, winning three games in five days. They have a tough opponent in Duke, but Jim Boeheim does not have a bad record against Coach K, giving Cuse value at 80-1. Do you believe in miracles? After beating Miami and Tennessee on last-second shots, Loyola-Chicago may be worth a play at 95-1. The Ramblers aren’t your typical Cinderella. They beat Florida in the regular season and are 30-5. With Sister Jean cheering them on, this team has a chance.

Free College Basketball ATS Picks

Keep an eye on Purdue as there is a lot of value in the Boilermakers if Haas is healthy. This team has all the other pieces in place, but they need their dominant big man.

Syracuse is worth a bet at these long odds too. The Orange have been incredible on defense and are turning games into a slugfest. At 80-1, you could do much worse.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Sweet 16 Action
March 21, 2018

Grading the Sweet Sixteen Thursday Games

After a flurry and fantastic opening weekend of March Madness betting, we’ve arrived at the Sweet Sixteen with a whole host of improbable programs breaking through. Let’s break down these games from a bird’s eye perspective and get things started with the Thursday matchups.

All games listed are for Thursday, March 22nd

#11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers +1.5 over #7 Nevada Wolfpack (7:07pm ET)

It’s easy – almost too easy – to dismiss Loyola-Chicago, but don’t be fooled by the lack of name recognition. What they represent in this matchup is a bit of a nightmare for Nevada, who has seen themselves buried in deep deficits that they’d have to redline to escape. Most bettors don’t see that as a winning tactic, and if the Wolfpack allow the Ramblers to get ramblin’, it’s going to get ugly.

Loyoyla-Chicago has a terrific defense, which allows just 41.6 percent against from the field and was one of the top rated sides in the country when it came to getting stops. This line, along with the allure of Nevada as more of a known commodity, is meant to trap you with the favorite. But the better bet from all sides is Loyola-Chicago. They’re playing like they belong in the tournament, and that kind of attitude is powerful stuff given the defensive foundation this team is built upon.

#7 Texas A&M +2.5 over #3 Michigan Wolverines (7:37pm ET)

The three-seeded Wolverines have obvious appeal, but anyone who stayed glued to the television set last weekend saw glaring weaknesses. There’s no bones about it to be honest. Michigan was flat out lucky to get out of the first two rounds.

You can’t say that about Texas A&M, which has found some sort of defensive pathway which is on the verge of taking over this tournament. At their peak, Michigan is one of the best teams in the tournament, but the Aggies are not as far behind as you’d think. Dropping 86 points on the defending champions is one thing, but holding them to just 0.86 points per possession speaks volumes about the attitude adjustment Kennedy’s troops have undertaken.

Overall, the Aggies simply have more weapons to overcome struggle. The narrative for the Wolverines centers around the idea that they’re galvanized, but I just don’t see it. It’s simply too hard to shake the idea of Michigan limping in to the Sweet Sixteen like a dead man walking. The Aggies will finish the job.

#5 Kentucky Wildcats -5.5 over #9 Kansas State Wildcats (9:37pm ET)

Legitimate fear hung in the air that if the Kentucky Wildcats could figure out how to play together, they could seize the tournament. And it happened. While the team still rallies around the uber talented Shai Gilgeou-Alexander, more players are getting involved thanks to better ball movement. They are not invincible, but they also know that so it’s important to remember that a young team comprised of freshman is sometimes going to take a while to get going. This is not the ultra loaded Kentucky team we’re used to betting on in the Sweet Sixteen. However, that might be even better news given that they’ll have to rely on each other instead of their own individual selves. Kansas State does not have the scoring to keep up if and when Kentucky turns this in to a track meet.

#9 Florida State Seminoles +5.5 over #4 Gonzaga Bulldogs (10:07pm ET)

Many of the games on Thursday are pretty much spoken for, but this is the one where you have to get frisky and that’s exactly what I’m doing. FSU’s depth was on display as the team made up for the absence of their leading scorer, Brandon Allen (groin), by producing 65 points off the bench through two games. Allen should be back at full steam this Thursday, and the fact that they have so many go-to weapons to turn to in a number of situations gives them the versatility to run wild for forty minutes.

Gonzaga should be the no-brainer pick in this matchup, but that Ohio State game worried me. So did the near upset produced by UNC Greensboro, which saw the Zags score the fewest points in a while. The Bulldogs rely on poise and experience, but FSU has that as well so it’s not as much of an advantage. Where the Gonzaga excels is in scoring, and Florida State’s unreal athleticism and energy can disrupt even the best of teams. By no means are the Seminoles a lock to give Gonzaga a game, but this tournament has been anything but predictable. If the starters can’t get going, FSU has a reserve side that can seriously turn the tide and that makes them a dangerous team to bet against.