Thursday's S16 Best Bets
March 20, 2018
Thursday Sweet 16 Best Bets
As we all get a few days to recover from all the craziness/upsets the first weekend of the NCAA tournament brought, it's time to get back behind the wheel with the Sweet 16 approaching. Thursday's four games bring us action where the best seed remaining is #3 Michigan, with five of the eight teams being seeded #7 or higher in their respective regions.
That should make for a pretty interesting evening of action overall (no favorite is laying more then -5.5) so which, if any of these surprising “underdogs” can keep their Cinderella run going to the Elite Eight?
Best Bet #1: Michigan -2.5
The Michigan Wolverines were one of the luckiest teams to reach this round in terms of getting through the Round of 32, as a buzzer-beating 3-pointer got them by Houston in the last round. The Wolverines did not play anywhere near their best in that win, shooting 35.6% from the floor, but Jordan Poole's buzzer-beater helped them accomplish the name of the game during this time of year: survive and advance.
Now Michigan goes up against a Texas A&M team that just dismantled #2 UNC last weekend. Based on the last outings by both teams lone it's no surprise to see the Aggies getting some early support with this line having opened up at -3, but Texas A&M's dominant performance against a top seed actually puts them in a very negative spot in my eyes. Teams that look so good in dismantling a top squad tend to come back down to earth quite a bit the next time around and I doubt the Aggies shoot 51% from the floor vs Michigan and hold the Wolverines to 33.3% shooting like they did UNC. In fact, throw in Michigan's abysmal offensive performance against Houston and the strong likelihood that they turn that around based on sheer regression to the mean and we could get a Michigan blowout by the end of this game.
Texas A&M relies on their size in the paint to get things done and while that's worked for them so far, it's nothing new for Michigan. The Wolverines deal with big teams like Michigan State and Purdue every year in Big 10 play and they were 2-0 SU against Michigan State and 1-2 SU (with both losses coming by 1 and 4 points respectively) against Purdue. That familiarity actually makes this a very favorable matchup for John Beilein's Michigan squad and we should see the Wolverines move on to the Elite Eight rather comfortably.
Michigan is on a 8-2 ATS run off a SU win, 12-3-1 ATS against teams that have won 60% of their games or more, 15-5-1 ATS on a neutral floor, and 7-2 ATS off an ATS defeat. They know how lucky they were to get back Houston and get to this point and it's that “second chance” at life in this tournament that won't be wasted. Texas A&M looked phenomenal against UNC, but the last two years we've seen teams to beat the defending national champion lose outright in their next game and the Aggies won't be any different here.
Best Bet #2: Kansas State/Kentucky Under 138.5
The way these two teams have played their tournament games so far, it looks like we've got the classic case of offense vs defense in this one. And while the 'offense' should end up advancing, it won't be easy and without a statement made by the 'defense.'
Kentucky and their freshman-laden roster have dominated offensively so far in their two games, scoring 78 and 95 points respectively in their two victories. That makes it four straight 'overs' (and 9 of 10) for Kentucky as this team really has peaked at the right time of year. But scoring on teams that love to play fast like Davidson and Buffalo is much easier then it will be for Kentucky in this matchup as K-State prides themselves on their defense and will need it to be performing at a high level if they want to pull off the upset.
Kansas State has seen their two games finished with combined scores of 128 and 93 as they've yet to allow an opponent to score 60 or more against them. The Wildcats did get a bit lucky by facing #16 UMBC rather than Virginia last round to get here, but what was really impressive was holding a high-scoring Big East team like Creighton to just 59 points in the opening round. K-State is going to need a similar performance against Kentucky here to stand a chance as this might end up being a game where the first (and only) team to reach 65 points moves on to the Elite Eight.
While I do think Kentucky's scoring prowess will be too much for Kansas State in the end (although I'm not comfortable laying the -5.5 points) the freshman Kentucky has will be stifled by K-State's defense for long stretches at times making the 'under' the better play in my eyes. These two programs met in March back in 2014 and that game was a 56-49 Kentucky win, suggesting the 'under' really is the way to go. The players have changed since then, but the coach's haven't and we should see a similar style of game here.
March 20, 2018
Thursday Sweet 16 Best Bets
As we all get a few days to recover from all the craziness/upsets the first weekend of the NCAA tournament brought, it's time to get back behind the wheel with the Sweet 16 approaching. Thursday's four games bring us action where the best seed remaining is #3 Michigan, with five of the eight teams being seeded #7 or higher in their respective regions.
That should make for a pretty interesting evening of action overall (no favorite is laying more then -5.5) so which, if any of these surprising “underdogs” can keep their Cinderella run going to the Elite Eight?
Best Bet #1: Michigan -2.5
The Michigan Wolverines were one of the luckiest teams to reach this round in terms of getting through the Round of 32, as a buzzer-beating 3-pointer got them by Houston in the last round. The Wolverines did not play anywhere near their best in that win, shooting 35.6% from the floor, but Jordan Poole's buzzer-beater helped them accomplish the name of the game during this time of year: survive and advance.
Now Michigan goes up against a Texas A&M team that just dismantled #2 UNC last weekend. Based on the last outings by both teams lone it's no surprise to see the Aggies getting some early support with this line having opened up at -3, but Texas A&M's dominant performance against a top seed actually puts them in a very negative spot in my eyes. Teams that look so good in dismantling a top squad tend to come back down to earth quite a bit the next time around and I doubt the Aggies shoot 51% from the floor vs Michigan and hold the Wolverines to 33.3% shooting like they did UNC. In fact, throw in Michigan's abysmal offensive performance against Houston and the strong likelihood that they turn that around based on sheer regression to the mean and we could get a Michigan blowout by the end of this game.
Texas A&M relies on their size in the paint to get things done and while that's worked for them so far, it's nothing new for Michigan. The Wolverines deal with big teams like Michigan State and Purdue every year in Big 10 play and they were 2-0 SU against Michigan State and 1-2 SU (with both losses coming by 1 and 4 points respectively) against Purdue. That familiarity actually makes this a very favorable matchup for John Beilein's Michigan squad and we should see the Wolverines move on to the Elite Eight rather comfortably.
Michigan is on a 8-2 ATS run off a SU win, 12-3-1 ATS against teams that have won 60% of their games or more, 15-5-1 ATS on a neutral floor, and 7-2 ATS off an ATS defeat. They know how lucky they were to get back Houston and get to this point and it's that “second chance” at life in this tournament that won't be wasted. Texas A&M looked phenomenal against UNC, but the last two years we've seen teams to beat the defending national champion lose outright in their next game and the Aggies won't be any different here.
Best Bet #2: Kansas State/Kentucky Under 138.5
The way these two teams have played their tournament games so far, it looks like we've got the classic case of offense vs defense in this one. And while the 'offense' should end up advancing, it won't be easy and without a statement made by the 'defense.'
Kentucky and their freshman-laden roster have dominated offensively so far in their two games, scoring 78 and 95 points respectively in their two victories. That makes it four straight 'overs' (and 9 of 10) for Kentucky as this team really has peaked at the right time of year. But scoring on teams that love to play fast like Davidson and Buffalo is much easier then it will be for Kentucky in this matchup as K-State prides themselves on their defense and will need it to be performing at a high level if they want to pull off the upset.
Kansas State has seen their two games finished with combined scores of 128 and 93 as they've yet to allow an opponent to score 60 or more against them. The Wildcats did get a bit lucky by facing #16 UMBC rather than Virginia last round to get here, but what was really impressive was holding a high-scoring Big East team like Creighton to just 59 points in the opening round. K-State is going to need a similar performance against Kentucky here to stand a chance as this might end up being a game where the first (and only) team to reach 65 points moves on to the Elite Eight.
While I do think Kentucky's scoring prowess will be too much for Kansas State in the end (although I'm not comfortable laying the -5.5 points) the freshman Kentucky has will be stifled by K-State's defense for long stretches at times making the 'under' the better play in my eyes. These two programs met in March back in 2014 and that game was a 56-49 Kentucky win, suggesting the 'under' really is the way to go. The players have changed since then, but the coach's haven't and we should see a similar style of game here.
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