The Bum's 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY APRIL 19, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:00 PM Philadelphia 76ers Miami Heat AmericanAirlines Arena
9:00 PM Portland Trail Blazers New Orleans Pelicans Smoothie King Center
9:30 PM Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs AT&T Center

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY APRIL 20, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:00 PM Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers Bankers Life Fieldhouse
8:00 PM Toronto Raptors Washington Wizards Capital One Arena
9:30 PM Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks BMO Harris Bradley Center

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY APRIL 21, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
2:30 PM Philadelphia 76ers Miami Heat AmericanAirlines Arena
5:00 PM Portland Trail Blazers New Orleans Pelicans Smoothie King Center
7:30 PM Houston Rockets Minnesota Timberwolves Target Center
10:00 PM Oklahoma City Thunder Utah Jazz Vivint Smart Home Arena

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY APRIL 22, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
1:00 PM Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks BMO Harris Bradley Center
3:30 PM Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs AT&T Center
6:00 PM Toronto Raptors Washington Wizards Capital One Arena
8:30 PM Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers Bankers Life Fieldhouse


***************************



NBA PLAYOFF RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

04/18/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
04/17/2018 4-2-0 66.67% +900
04/16/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/15/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
04/14/2018 1-6-1 14.29% -28.00

TOTALS.........13-18-1........41.93%....-34.00

[StarDust Bum]

Warriors' Iguodala dials in for playoffs
April 18, 2018

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Andre Iguodala knocked down another clutch 3-pointer and let out some rare emotion, triumphantly reaching his arms out wide as he ran back to the defensive end. The Golden State swingman had thrown down a spectacular alley-oop dunk only 31 seconds earlier, and he was feeling it as the clocked ticked away on a second straight lopsided playoff win.

There's something about Iguodala in the postseason. He paces himself through the regular season to be fresh and ready - and sometimes dominant - on the big stage for the defending NBA champions.

''Everyone gets hyped when Andre gets hyped because that's a rare occurrence,'' teammate Klay Thompson said. ''You might see it on the golf course.''

It's just what the short-handed Warriors were hoping to see.

Iguodala is back in the starting lineup for Golden State's first-round series against the Spurs, filling in for Stephen Curry as the two-time MVP recovers from a sprained left knee. That's how versatile Iguodala is: the 6-foot-6 swingman can be inserted in place of a point guard. The Warriors will go for a 3-0 lead Thursday when the best-of-seven series shifts to San Antonio.

At 34, Iguodala knows how to take care of himself over the long grind of an NBA season, all to be prepared to do whatever is asked of him in the playoffs.

''For us to be able to throw Andre out there really 1 through 4 both offensively and defensively, it's an incredibly valuable weapon,'' coach Steve Kerr said.

That's when he has been at his brilliant best for the Warriors - and they are getting their money's worth from a major investment last summer.

Many feared he might leave, but Iguodala received a $48 million, three-year contract to stay put and chase another championship. Even if he could have landed a bigger role elsewhere.

''Well, we met with him and we gave him our pitch and lots of money so we were hoping he wasn't going to leave,'' Kerr said. ''I didn't anticipate him leaving because he knows this is a great situation for him and we rewarded him for everything he's done and for what we think he can do for us. I think this year was a good example of that. A lot of people were grumbling about he's not shooting the ball well or whatever. ... It's the incredible defense, amazing awareness, intelligence, leadership.''

Iguodala keeps it simple, whether he's in the lineup or coming off the bench: ''Just try to do whatever it takes to help the team get over the hump and get a win.''

In 2015, Kerr moved Iguodala into the starting lineup, and he became Finals MVP as the franchise captured its first championship in 40 years.

Golden State is hoping for the same this spring. Iguodala had only started seven times before Game 1 of the playoffs Saturday, when he had seven rebounds, four assists and three points.

That's after he missed four of the final five regular season games with a sore left knee.

''He's definitely got to pace himself, the man's played so much hoops in the last 15 years,'' Thompson said. ''Andre is a gamer. He is going to step up in the biggest moments, and right now it's the playoffs. We have all the trust in the world for him, that's why he's a Finals MVP.''

On Monday, Iguodala finished with 14 points on 5-of-7 shooting with four 3-pointers, seven rebounds, five assists, a steal and a block.

And he can guard anybody.

''His hands are so good. That's the small thing that people don't realize, he's got great hands when he gets steals,'' Kevin Durant said. ''So guys are just thinking about that when they're trying to score on him. As a scorer you've got to think about something other than getting to your spots or getting into your rhythm and it throws you off just a little bit. And that's all you need to guard the best player, just for them to think just a tiny bit and Dre does that.''

Iguodala was part of the Warriors group that traveled to the Hamptons to persuade Durant to join a super team in July 2016.

''I always knew what Andre could do,'' Durant said. ''I played two USA teams with him, so I kind of knew his value. He's not one of those guys that's going to go out and say, `Here, Dre, give us 30 points.' He's one of those who can do just about everything good - he can shoot, he can pass, he can dribble, he can defend, he can rebound, he can do all those things really good. It's not like he wants to do one thing more than the other.''

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

2018 Kentucky Derby odds:

Justify +225

Mendelssohn +525

Bolt d’Oro +575

Audible +675

Magnum Moon +725

Good Magic +825


**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud

13) Interesting article in Forbes magazine, written by K. Sean Pickard, about athletes and the taxes they pay. From the article:

“LeBron James was the highest-paid athlete in the U.S. last year with more than $80 million from salary and endorsements. King James will pay his fair share of taxes, but the level of complication for James and his financial team when they are filing is off the charts since he earned money in at least the 21 states where NBA teams are located.”

12) From Sports Illustrated, on NFL players and their taxes:

“One All-Pro’s 2016 filing was 400 pages long. He spoke with his tax accountant on a near-daily basis, calling before scheduling a bye-week vacation to income tax-free Florida that saved him $20,000. And this is a guy who has played on the same team his entire career.”

This is the tax formula, for a player who earns $13M a year:

($13,000,000 x 1 day x 13.3% tax rate / 170-day season).

So spending his bye week in a tax-free state can save an NFL player a significant amount of money.

11) It was 29 degrees in Dodge City, KS at 5am Tuesday; by 3:00 Tuesday afternoon, the temperature had risen to 93 degrees, which is just a little weird.

10) Tuesday night’s Price-Ohtani pitching matchup in Anaheim was Angels’ first home sellout on a Tuesday in four years. Ohtani got a blister on his pitching hand and left after throwing 66 pitches in two innings, allowing three runs.

9) This is the first time the Toronto Raptors have ever led a playoff series 2-0.

8) Brayden McNabb scored the series-winning goal for Las Vegas in their 1-0 win over the Kings Tuesday; it was Los Angeles that left him unprotected in the expansion draft, and the Golden Knights picked him up. Quite a season the expansion Knights are having, a team in their first-ever season still alive in the NHL playoffs.

7) Oakland reliever Ryan Dull struck out four White Sox in the 8th inning Tuesday night, he is the first A’s pitcher ever with four strikeouts in an inning at home (4th all-time).

6) Justin Timberlake owns a small part of the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies.

5) Two years ago, the Phillies’ mental skills department was essentially nonexistent. Now they have two full-time staffers and an intern. Mental. skills.

Phillies’ GM Matt Klentak: “Like a lot of things in our business, it’s tough to quantify the importance of it, but we know it’s very important. You can tell talking to current players, ex-players, coaches – anybody that’s played the game knows there’s a tremendous amount of failure that goes along with it. Trying to identify ways to help players minimize the periods of failure even by one day can have an enormous impact on a player, on a team and on a franchise. We’re seeking as best we can to put our players in a position to succeed.”

24 of 30 major league teams have a mental skills coach; learning how to deal with failure is seen as a very big deal now.

4) Richmond Spiders tossed sophomore G De’Monte Buckingham off its basketball team for a violation of athletics department policy. Buckingham was the A-14 Rookie of the year two years ago; last year he averaged 12.2 ppg, third on the team, and a team-best 7 rpg

It won’t be hard for Buckingham to find a new home, maybe even at a higher level.

3) A’s 12, White Sox 11 (14)— Matt Olson got his first career walk-off hit off James Shields as the gritty Oaklanders rallied back from a 6-1 deficit to win their 4th straight game. Game took just under six hours to play; the two starting pitchers combined to get only seven outs.

2) RIP Erin Popovich 67, wife of San Antonio Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich; the couple were married for 40 years and have two children, two grandchildren.

1) Baseball teams have 25-man rosters, for teams who make the playoffs, you need more than 25 guys to get thru a season.

In 2012, the A’s went 94-68, won the AL West on the last day of the season, but they were only 46-44 on July 18 when a sub infielder named Brandon Hicks hit a walk-off homer to beat Texas 4-3, a win that started Oakland on a 7-game winning streak.

A’s wound up beating the Rangers out by a game; Hicks hit only .174 for the A’s that season in 22 games (64 AB) but that hit was huge— without it, they probably don’t make the playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

The opening round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs continues Thursday night with three Game 3s as the series' shift to the home court of the lower seeds.

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (+2, 216.5)

Following their first loss in over a month, the Philadelphia 76ers - likely still without All-Star center Joel Embiid - will try to take back homecourt advantage when they visit the Miami Heat for Game 3 of their best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series. Embiid has been sidelined with an orbital fracture for 10 games, including a 113-103 loss to the Heat on Monday that tied the series up at a game apiece, and he was listed as doubtful after practice Wednesday.

Embiid posted an Instagram message before Game 2 that strongly indicated his desire to return, indicating that he was being "babied" by the team staff, and he participated in portions of practice the next two days. "It's still moving forward," coach Brett Brown told reporters Tuesday. "What I can say is there is a very unified effort with his representation and the people around him. With the people that did the operation, the doctors, with our medical staff, with the team, with me, the coaching staff. We're all doing this. There's a unified sort of spirit and line of communication." The Sixers had no issues without their big man in a Game 1 rout but they had no answers Monday night for Heat veteran Dwyane Wade, who scored 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting while moving into 10th place on the NBA's career postseason scoring list with 3,910. "It's just in my DNA," Wade told the media of his vintage performance. "I love the stage."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, NBCS Philadelphia, FS Sun (Miami)

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Heat opened as 1-point home favorites for Game 3 but steady, early action on the Sixers has pushed that pointspread over the fence to Philly -2. 60 percent of Covers Consensus selections are on the 76ers. The total hit betting boards at 216 and has been bumped up slightly to 216.5.

ABOUT THE 76ERS (53-31 SU, 48-34-2 ATS, 42-41-1 O/U): After making 18-of-28 3-pointers in Game 1, Philadelphia was 7-of-36 in Monday's loss, and rookie Ben Simmons - who rarely shoots from beyond the arc - led the way on the offensive end with 24 points. Dario Saric contributed 23 points while hitting 3-of-10 triples and is confident that whenever Embiid returns the matchups will be very different. "When he comes back he'll be ready, and will kick their [butt]," Saric told reporters. "I cannot wait for Joel to come back and help us because we are a way better team with him."

ABOUT THE HEAT (45-39 SU, 41-37-6 ATS, 38-45-1 O/U): James Johnson averaged under nine minutes a game in his first 19 playoff contests with Chicago, Memphis and Toronto, but he's making the most of his increased role with the Heat this postseason. The veteran out of Wake Forest made all seven of his shots in Game 2 and finished with 18 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals in 37 minutes, which matches his highest total in a regulation game all season. Johnson, Wade and Goran Dragic combined to make 26-of-37 shot attempts while their teammates were 14-of-45 in Game 2.

INJURY REPORT:

Sixers - C J. Embiid (Questionable, Face), SG T. Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out Indefinitely, Knee).

Heat - SG D. Waiters (Out For Season, Ankle).

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* 76ers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
* Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Over is 5-1 in 76ers' last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 6-1 in Heat's last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* 76ers are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Miami.




Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5, 216)

The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a resounding postseason start and aim to take a 3-0 series lead when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday. Sixth-seeded New Orleans won the opening two games of the Western Conference first-round matchup at Portland and can take a commanding lead with another victory.

Guard Jrue Holiday scored a career playoff-best 33 points in Tuesday's 111-102 victory and coach Alvin Gentry cautioned his players not to get overly giddy following the contest. "We've still got to get two more wins, so we're not overly excited about anything," Gentry told reporters. "We're playing against a really, really well-coached great team. ... That was our message to the team and actually that was their message to each other, that we hadn't done anything yet." Portland star guard Damian Lillard was unable to get untracked in the first two games while coach Terry Stotts said his squad has to return serve by accumulating road wins. "We've got to win two games in New Orleans, and hopefully it's the next two," Stotts told reporters. "It's easy math - we've got to go and win two in New Orleans, and I feel we're very capable of winning both games."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, NBATV, NBCS Northwest (Portland), FS New Orleans

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Pelicans opened as 3-point home favorites for Game 3 and that number has bumped up slightly to -3.5. 74 percent of Covers Consensus side wagers are on the favorites from New orleans. The total hit betting boards at 216 and has not moved as of Thursday morning.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (49-35 SU, 45-34-5 ATS, 35-49 O/U): Lillard averaged 26.9 points during the regular season but has struggled in this series with a 17.5 average on 13-of-41 shooting. "Coming into the playoffs, you know teams are going to lock in, and they're going to try and make the game hard for you," Lillard told reporters. "And I give a lot of credit to them for executing their game plan but the opportunities I do get, I've just got to be better. It's as simple as that." Starting center Jusuf Nurkic (leg) was limited to 15 minutes on Tuesday and swingman Even Turner (toe) missed all six of his field-goal attempts in 20 scoreless minutes.

ABOUT THE PELICANS (50-34 SU, 47-36-1 ATS, 47-37 O/U): Holiday averaged 27 points in the two games in Portland and has thrived during the best of his five seasons in New Orleans. Injury issues and the situation in which his wife Lauren, a former U.S. national soccer player, battled a brain tumor while pregnant that caused him to miss the start of the 2016-17 season created challenges for the 27-year-old. "My family's the most important thing to me, and with them being OK I can come back to the team freely and be able to help them out now," Holiday told reporters. "It's been fun. I feel like my teammates and the organization definitely helped me out coming back from things with my family, and even the injuries, with being able to play and being able to perform at the peak I'm performing."

INJURY REPORT:

Blazers - C J. Nurkic (Probable, Leg), SF E. Turner (Questionable, Toe), SG C. Wilcox (Out Indefinitely, Knee).

Pelicans - PF N. Mirotic (Probable, Ankle), C A. Ajinca (Out For Season, Knee), PG F. Jackson (Out For Season, Foot), C D. Cousins (Out For Season, Achilles).

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Trail Blazers' last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 6-1 in Pelicans' last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.




Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (+4, 206)

The San Antonio Spurs have their backs against the wall and badly need a victory when they host the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. The Spurs dropped the first two games of the best-of-seven series by an average of 18 points and hope to turn things around on the home floor.

Seventh-seeded San Antonio is having trouble matching up with the second-seeded Warriors - not having star forward Kawhi Leonard (quadriceps) isn't helping matters - but the players insist they can still make it a series. "We're not going to roll over," power forward LaMarcus Aldridge told reporters. "We've got to take the mentality that we had (in Game 2), trying to take the fight to them. ... I feel like it should be good for us going home, but we've got to take the same intensity from (Monday) home with us." Golden State's offense is clicking despite the absence of star guard Stephen Curry (knee) as the squad averaged 114.5 points over the first two games. Shooting guard Klay Thompson is averaging 29 points in the series and Kevin Durant is contributing 28 per game.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT, NBCS Bay Area (Golden State), FS Southwest (San Antonio)

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Warriors opened as 3-point road favorites and as of Thursday morning that number is up to 4. 66 percent of consensus users are on the favorite Dubs. The total hit betting boards at 207 and is down slightly to 206.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (60-24 SU, 36-47-1 ATS, 40-43-1 O/U): Thompson is 10-of-14 from 3-point range in the series and 23-of-33 overall and coach Steve Kerr said part of Thompson's sharpness is due to missing eight games in March with a broken right thumb. The thinking goes that Thompson was able to rest the remainder of his body while the thumb was healing and is much fresher than he would typically be at this time of year. "Any time you can take a few games off, unfortunately it hurts when you do, but in the long run, we try to play till June every season," Thompson told reporters. "So I think it will help out in the long run."

ABOUT THE SPURS (47-37 SU, 42-40-2 ATS, 39-44-1 O/U): Leonard is away from the team in New York rehabbing his injury and one of coach Gregg Popovich's comments about Aldridge after Game 2 seemed like at least a partial shot at the two-time All-Star. "LaMarcus has been a monster all year long," Popovich told reporters. "He's led our team at both ends of the floor. He doesn't complain about a darned thing out on the court. He just plays through everything. I can't imagine being more proud of a player as far as playing through adversity and being there for his teammates night after night after night. He's been fantastic." Aldridge had 34 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2 after struggling to 14 points and two rebounds in the series opener.

INJURY REPORT:

Warriors - PF D. West (Questionable, Ankle), SG P. McCaw (Out Indefinitely, Back), PG S. Curry (Late April, Knee), SF C. Boucher (Out Indefinitely, Ankle).

Spurs - C J. Lauvergne (Questionable, Personal), SF K. Leonard (Out For Season, Quadricep).

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Warriors are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
* Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Warriors' last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Spurs' last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Warriors are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, April 19


Philadelphia @ Miami

Game 523-524
April 19, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
126.303
Miami
119.702
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-1 1/2); Over

Portland @ New Orleans

Game 525-526
April 19, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
121.667
New Orleans
126.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 5
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
216
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-3); Over

Golden State @ San Antonio

Game 527-528
April 19, 2018 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
119.224
San Antonio
120.135
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 1
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 3 1/2
206
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+3 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (53 - 31) at MIAMI (45 - 39) - 4/19/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 91-71 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 44-31 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 61-41 ATS (+15.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 47-34 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 7-6 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (49 - 35) at NEW ORLEANS (50 - 34) - 4/19/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 47-36 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-18 ATS (+7.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 45-32 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 8-6 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 8-6 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (60 - 24) at SAN ANTONIO (47 - 37) - 4/19/2018, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-46 ATS (-15.6 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1045-918 ATS (+35.2 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 297-244 ATS (+28.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 191-141 ATS (+35.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 131-95 ATS (+26.5 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 11-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 19

76ers (1-1) @ Heat

Miami starters other than Johnson went 21-35 from floor in Game 2 win, after they were 8-31 in Game 1 loss. Sixers went 7-36 on arc in Game 2, after an 18-28 showing in Game 1; that was Philly’s first loss since March 13. Miami led both games of series at halftime- they got to foul line 61 times in first two series games. Home side is 10-1 in last 11 series games; 76ers lost their last four visits to South Beach (0-3-1 vs spread), by 9-1-30-23 points. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. Heat split its last dozen games overall; they won four of last six home games, with four of those games staying under.

Trailblazers @ Pelicans (2-0)


New Orleans starters were plus-62 in winning Games 1-2 at Portland; subs were minus-51. NO won/covered its last seven games overall; Davis has 57 points, 27 boards in this series. Pelicans won six of last eight games with Portland; last three series games stayed under. Blazers are 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Bourbon Street. Lillard/McCollum shot combined 29-80 in first two games; Portland lost its last five road games (1-4 vs spread). Pelicans were 12-24 on arc in Game 2 after going 8-24 in Game 1. Portland had 28 offensive boards in first two series games.

Warriors (2-0) @ Spurs

No word on whether Coach Popovich will be on bench after his wife passed away yesterday. San Antonio lost first two series games by 21-15; they played great first half in Game 2, led 53-47 at half, still lost by 15. Golden State won 10 of last 11 series games, winning/covering three of last four visits to the Alamo. Over is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. Warrior bench was +20 in Game 2; Golden State made 15-31 on arc on Game 2, after going 10-22 in first game. Spurs did better on boards (-4) in Game 2, after they were -21 in Game 1. No Curry or Leonard in this series.

Wizards-Raptors
Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211
Tor 130-119, -7, O214

Heat-76ers
Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212
Mia 113-103, +6.5, U217

Bucks-Celtics
Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5
Bos 120-106, -1, O200

Pacers-Cavaliers
Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5

Clev 100-97, -8, U209

Spurs-Warriors
GState 113-92, -8, U209.5

GState 116-101, -9 O205.5

Pelicans-Blazers
NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5
NO 111-102, +6, U216

Jazz-Thunder
OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205

Utah 102-95, +4, U206.5

Wolves-Rockets
Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5

Hst 102-82, -10.5, U212.5




NBA

Thursday, April 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami Heat
Miami is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Miami is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Portland's last 18 games on the road
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New Orleans's last 23 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland


Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
Golden State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Golden State is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
San Antonio is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games
San Antonio is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 11 games at home
San Antonio is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
San Antonio is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Golden State
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing at home against Golden State

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, APRIL 19
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at MIA 07:00 PM
MIA +2.5
U 216.0

POR at NO 09:00 PM
POR +3.0
U 216.0

GS at SA 09:30 PM
SA +3.5
O 206.0

[StarDust Bum]

Warriors pull away from Spurs for 3-0 lead
April 20, 2018

SAN ANTONIO (AP) Kevin Durant had 26 points, nine rebounds and six assists, and the Golden State Warriors beat San Antonio 110-97 on Thursday night for a 3-0 series lead over the Spurs, who were still reeling from the death of Gregg Popovich's wife, Erin.

Golden State can close the first-round series with a win Sunday afternoon in San Antonio in Game 4.

The Spurs were playing a day after the death of Erin Popovich, who passed away after battling an undisclosed long-term illness. Erin and Gregg Popovich were married four decades and had two children and two grandchildren.

San Antonio did not air a video tribute or hold a moment of silence for Erin in an apparent attempt to make the game as routine as possible for its players, but that was impossible.

Coach Popovich was not in his customary position roaming the sidelines, choosing instead to be with his family. San Antonio assistant Ettore Messina coached the team in Popovich's place.

76ERS 128, HEAT 108

MIAMI (AP) - A masked Joel Embiid scored 23 points in his postseason debut, Marco Belinelli and Dario Saric each added 21 and Philadelphia beat Miami to take a 2-1 lead in their Eastern Conference first-round series.

Ben Simmons finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists for the 76ers, who won for the 18th time in their last 19 games and reclaimed home-court advantage. Embiid went on a personal 7-0 run in the fourth quarter to help Philadelphia extend its lead to 14, and send many in the crowd to the exits.

Goran Dragic scored 23 points for Miami, which got 19 from Justise Winslow and 14 from Josh Richardson.

Game 4 is Saturday afternoon.

PELICANS 119, TRAIL BLAZERS 102

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Nikola Mirotic scored a career playoff-best 30 points to go with eight rebounds, three steals and a block, and New Orleans beat Portland to take a 3-0 lead in their first-round playoff series.

Anthony Davis had 28 points, 11 rebounds, three steals and two blocks for New Orleans, which can advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2008 with one more victory.

The 6-foot-10 Mirotic, acquired in a midseason trade after DeMarcus Cousins' season-ending Achilles tear, made 12 of 15 shots, scoring on everything from quick-release 3-pointers to cutting dunks and fast-break layups.

Damian Lillard scored 20 for Portland, but also missed nine of 14 shots. CJ McCollum scored 22 and Al-Farouq Aminu added 21, but Portland trailed by double digits for most of the first half and all of the second.

Game 4 is Saturday.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY APRIL 20, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:00 PM Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers Bankers Life Fieldhouse
8:00 PM Toronto Raptors Washington Wizards Capital One Arena
9:30 PM Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks BMO Harris Bradley Center

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY APRIL 21, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
2:30 PM Philadelphia 76ers Miami Heat AmericanAirlines Arena
5:00 PM Portland Trail Blazers New Orleans Pelicans Smoothie King Center
7:30 PM Houston Rockets Minnesota Timberwolves Target Center
10:00 PM Oklahoma City Thunder Utah Jazz Vivint Smart Home Arena

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY APRIL 22, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
1:00 PM Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks BMO Harris Bradley Center
3:30 PM Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs AT&T Center
6:00 PM Toronto Raptors Washington Wizards Capital One Arena
8:30 PM Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers Bankers Life Fieldhouse


************************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

04/19/2018 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
04/18/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
04/17/2018 4-2-0 66.67% +900
04/16/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/15/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
04/14/2018 1-6-1 14.29% -28.00

TOTALS.........14-23-1........37.83%....-56.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

— Cincinnati Reds fired manager Brian Price, after starting the season 3-15.

— 76ers 128, Heat 108— Philly takes a 2-1 series lead.

— Pelicans 119, Trailblazers 102— Yikes. New Orleans is up 3-0 in this series.

— Warriors 110, Spurs 97— Game went over total with 0:01.2 left.

— Bruins 3, Maple Leafs 1— Boston takes a 3-1 series lead.

— OF Trayce Thompson is on his third team in two weeks; A’s traded him back to Chicago.

Quote of the Day
“Never lose sight of the fact that the most important yardstick for your success will be how you treat other people – your family, friends, and co-workers, and even strangers you meet along the way.”
Barbara Bush

Friday’s quiz
Who was manager of the Cincinnati Reds before Bryan Price?

Thursday’s quiz
Alaska was the 49th state, Hawai’i the 50th— Arizona was the 48th state.

Wednesday’s quiz
Knicks lost 4-1 to San Antonio the last time they made the NBA Finals, in 1999.


********************************


Friday’s List of 13: Quick thoughts on the 2018 NFL schedule

Thoughts/comments on the NFL schedule release:
13) Week 1 Monday night doubleheader: Jets @ Lions, then Rams @ Raiders.

Super Bowl champion Eagles open on Thursday Sept 6 at home against Atlanta.

12) NFL went traditional rival-heavy for its Thanksgiving Day slate: Chicago-Detroit; Washington-Dallas; Atlanta-New Orleans. Good set of games.

This is third year in row the Redskins play on Thanksgiving Day.

11) Only four divisional games in Week 1, which is a good idea. Every game in Week 17 is a divisional game.

10) There is a Week 16 Monday night game on Christmas Eve; Broncos @ Raiders.

9) A sign the NFL doesn’t think you’re good: Miami Dolphins have a Week 8 Thursday night game in Houston- their other 15 games appear to be 1:00 Sunday games. If you NEVER play a 4:25 Sunday game, the league office isn’t too optimistic about your chances.

8) Rams-Chiefs in Mexico City on Monday night, November 19. Bye week the next week for both teams, which is weird but good for the team, having a bye week over Thanksgiving.

7) Chargers visit Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Denver in December, three potential cold weather games. Rams go to Chicago December 9, which will probably be a cruddy weather day.

6) Three teams have the unenviable “3 road games in 3 weeks” scenario:
— Ravens go to Pittsburgh-Cleveland-Tennessee in weeks 4-6
— Rams go to Seattle-Denver-San Francisco in weeks 5-7
— Saints go to Dallas-Tampa Bay-Carolina in weeks 13-15, but the Week 13 game is a Thursday game so they’ll have extra rest in there before the Bucs’ game.

11 teams have three home games in a row.

5) For first time since 2009, Bears open the season at Lambeau Field against the Packers, in the Week 1 Sunday night game.

4) Giants play four road games in domes, which at first glance is most in the league.

3) Speaking of domes, Lions/Saints both play three road games in domes, giving them only five outdoor games apiece this season.

2) In next few days, Las Vegas oddsmakers will have spreads for every game thru Week 16. Season over/under win totals don’t come out until after next week’s draft.

1) Here are the Week 1 NFL spreads from the Westgate SuperBook:

Falcons @ Philadelphia (-3.5, 47.5)
Steelers (-7, 48) @ Cleveland
49ers @ Minnesota (-4.5, 47.5)
Bengals @ Indianapolis (-1, 47.5)
Bills @ Ravens (-3.5, 42)
Jaguars (-4, 44.5) @ Giants
Buccaneers @ New Orleans (-7.5, 52.5)
Texans @ New England (-7, 51)
Titans (-2.5, 47) @ Miami
Chiefs @ LA Chargers (-3, 48.5)
Seahawks @ Denver (-2.5, 42)
Cowboys @ Carolina (-2.5, 45)
Redskins @ Arizona (-1, 45)
Bears @ Green Bay (-9, 48.5)
Jets @ Detroit (-6, 44)
Rams (even, 49.5) @ Oakland

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Playoff Tips
April 19, 2018

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Cleveland at Indiana (ESPN, 7:05 p.m. ET)

LeBron James and the Cavaliers avenged their Game 1 loss on Wednesday with a 100-97 win over Indiana in Game 2. James scored the first 16 points and had 29 at halftime before finishing with a game-high 46 in what many believed to be a must-win game for Cleveland. The Pacers managed to earn the cover as eight-point underdogs, while the ‘under’ (212 ½) was never in doubt.

The series heads back to Indiana tied at 1-1 and despite getting even, it seems as if a lot of pundits believe Cleveland is in for a dogfight.

Thanks to LeBron’s outburst, the Cavaliers came out on fire and led 33-18 after the first quarter but that lead was trimmed to 12 points at halftime (58-46) and seven (74-67) entering the final 12 minutes. If you watched the game, you're well aware that the Cavs were fortunate that the Indiana couldn’t connect from distance (6-of-22) and a lot of those shots were wide-open looks too.

Cleveland held advantages in both free throws made (15-9) and 3-pointers (11-6) in Game 2 and those numbers clearly turned out to be the difference and some would argue that the outcome (3) should’ve been larger for the Cavs.

Oddsmakers have adjusted the series price and Cleveland (-285) remains favored over Indiana (+230) but the odds are not nearly close to the opening numbers (Cavs -650, Pacers +480) before the series began.

For Game 3, Indiana opened as a two-point home favorite but the early money has come in on Cleveland and most betting shops are holding the Pacers -1 as of Thursday evening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line close as a pick ‘em and one offshore had the Cavs (-1) slightly favored.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers provided numbers on Cleveland as a playoff underdog in LeBron’s second go-round with the franchise.

He said, “Cleveland is listed as a road underdog against an Eastern Conference opponent in the playoffs for the first time since the 2015 conference finals against Atlanta. The Cavaliers won both of those games against the Hawks outright, but since LeBron James returned to Cleveland four seasons ago, the Cavs compiled a 6-7-1 ATS record as a road ‘dog in the postseason.”

Make a note that the 10 of the 14 encounters came against Golden State and the fortunate push came in Game 5 of last year’s NBA Finals.

If you take out the three losses to Golden State’s in last year’s finals, the Cavaliers went 7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread in their seven other road playoff games last season. Two of those wins came in the first round at Indiana but the outcomes were by a combined nine points (119-114, 106-102).

As a road ‘dog this season, the Cavaliers went 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS.

Indiana was a solid bet at home this season (27-14 SU, 24-17 ATS) and two of those wins came against Cleveland. Rogers also dug up a solid number on the Pacers after they lose. He explained, “The Pacers have done a solid job of rebounding off a loss since late January by going 11-2 in the last 13 games off a defeat.”

The two losses came on the road and Indiana has gone 6-0 at home after a loss in 2018.

The ‘under’ is 2-0 in this series and the books are holding a total of 208 ½ for Game 3, which is a four-point drop from the first two games.

The pace has been slow by NBA standards with both clubs taking less than 80 shots in each of the first two games. Indiana produced the best ‘under’ mark (48-31-3) this season and a lot of those winning tickets came at home (24-15-2). Including this series, the ‘under’ is on a 5-1-1 run between the pair.

The two teams will meet again on Sunday from Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Game 4.

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 3 – Raptors lead 2-0
Toronto at Washington (ESPN2, 8:05 p.m. ET)

The middle game on Friday is arguably the toughest one to handicap and the oddsmakers are expecting a tight affair. Washington opened as a one-point favorite and a couple books are showing -2 less than 24 hours before tip-off.

Even though they lost 114-106 in Game 1 last Saturday, the Wizards were competitive for three quarters but fell apart in the fourth. On Tuesday it was a different story in Game 2 as the Raptors cruised to a 130-119 win as seven-point favorites. Toronto shot 51 percent from the field and took advantage at the free throw stripe by knocking down 27-of-33 freebies. DeMar DeRozan had 37 points for the Raptors and his partner in crime Kyle Lowry finished with 13 points and 12 assists.

The outcome in Game 2 wasn’t surprising to VI’s Rogers. “The Wizards have been a horrible road team to back in the playoffs the last few seasons, but are money in the bank at home. In last season’s playoffs, Washington posted a perfect 6-0 SU record, while covering four times as a favorite at Capital One Arena,” he added.

The success for the Wizards during their recent home playoff run has been all about their defense. The team only allowed 98.1 PPG in those game which helped the ‘under’ go 4-2.

While Washington has been great at home in the postseason, the same can’t be said for Toronto on the road. Since they made a return to the playoffs in 2014, Toronto has gone 5-14 SU and 6- 13 ATS as a visitor and defense has been the key factor. In the five wins, the Raptors allowed 84 PPG while surrendering an eye-opening 108 PPG in the losses.

However, Toronto has won in five of its past six visits to D.C. since getting knocked out in the opening round of the 2015 playoffs by Washington.

If you believe Washington can rally, take note that the Wizards are listed as 10/1 underdogs on the series price.

The series will stay in D.C. for Game 4 on Sunday, which is set for 6:00 p.m. ET.

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 3 – Celtics lead 2-0
Boston at Milwaukee (ESPN, 9:35 p.m. ET)

After capturing Game 1 in overtime, the Celtics wasted no time on Tuesday as they earned a 120-106 wire-to-wire victory over the Bucks in Game 2. Boston opened as a three-point favorite but plenty of money came in on Milwaukee and it closed as a one-point road underdog.

The Celtics posted 60 points in both halves and that offensive effort helped the ‘over’ (200) connect midway through the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown posted a playoff career-high 30 points for the Celtics and Terry Rozier added 23 points.

Bucks All-Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped 35 in Game 1 and finished with 30 in Game 2 but outside of 25 points from Khris Middleton, Milwaukee didn't have anybody else step up on Tuesday.

Surprisingly, the Bucks have shot better from the field in the series (48%, 59%) but they've been hurting themselves with turnovers. They had 15 on Tuesday and that led to 21 points for Boston. Another factor in Game 2 was the bench as Boston's reserves outscored the Bucks 41-25 in Game 2. In the opener, the Celtics barely nipped the Bucks in bench scoring (27-23).

Despite facing a 0-2 deficit, it appears as if the bookmakers are still giving Milwaukee a chance to rally for the win especially when you look at the odds on other first round series where a team holds a 2-0 lead. The Celtics were listed as -150 prior to the series and are only -340 heading into Game 3, while the takeback on the Bucks is +275.

For Game 3, Milwaukee opened as a six-point favorite and the number was pushed up to 6 ½ as of Thursday.

For bettors believing that Milwaukee will right the ship at home, make a note that Boston owned the third best road record (28-13 SU, 28-13 ATS) in the regular season. The Celtics did close their schedule with three straight setbacks away from home and one of them did come against the Bucks, a 106-102 loss on Apr. 3. However, Boston had won four of its five previous trips to Milwaukee and it’s also covered seven of its last eight as a visitor in this series.

Milwaukee has played better at home (25-16) this season but it has burned backers at the betting counter with a 12-25-4 mark against the spread, the second worst record in the NBA. More importantly, the Bucks were awful as home favorites in the second-half of the season, going 4-5 SU and 1-9 ATS. As road ‘dogs, the Celtics are only 7-9 but they’ve managed to produce an 11-5 record ATS.

The total for Game 3 is sitting between 202 and 203, which is up a couple points higher from the first two games. The ‘over’ is 2-0 in the series but I believe the ‘under’ could be worth a look in Game 3 based on playoff tendencies we’ve seen from Boston. Since head coach Brad Stevens took over the C’s, the team has watched the ‘under’ go 10-3 in road playoff games and the offense has only averaged 96.3 PPG. Boston has gone 4-9 SU and 8-5 ATS in those 13 contests.

Game 4 will take place on Sunday afternoon at 1:00 p.m. ET from the BMO Harris Bradley Center.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Best Bet
April 19, 2018

NBA Best Bet – Game 3
Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards

For the first time in franchise history, the Toronto Raptors were able to win Game 1 of a playoff series and because of that they now head to Washington for Game 3 with a 2-0 series lead. Toronto has made no bones all year about the fact that this team is ready to take that next step in the playoffs and so far so good for Toronto in Round 1.

But as much of a highlight it was for Toronto to break through that Game 1 curse and parlay that into a 2-0 series lead, they really just did what they were supposed to as not only the higher seed in this matchup, but the #1 seed in the East.

As the old saying goes, a playoff series really doesn't start until someone loses at home and the Raptors know they are about to get Washington's best punch in Game 3. Is it going to be enough for the Wizards to get back in the series?

Washington (-2); Total set at 218

Not only did Toronto win the first two games SU, the Raptors went 2-0 ATS as the 'over' cashed both times as well. Toronto's depth and their “Bench Mob” proved to be too much for Washington in the first two games, but as we see every year in the playoffs, benches tend to play much better at home than on the road.

Toronto's stars like DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry stepped up in Game 2 after a so-so Game 1 effort, but it will be on the backs of those guys that Toronto's got to ride in Games 3 and 4 if they want to find success. As deep and as talented as Toronto's bench is, they are still a young group and going into hostile territory in the playoffs is still going to be relatively new for them.

Washington is going to need their own bench to step up in Game 3, but more importantly they are going to need everyone with a Wizards jersey on that hits the floor to actually play some defense. Washington allowed Toronto to shoot 53.2% and 51.7% from the floor in Games 1 and 2 respectively, as Toronto knocked in 16 and 13 three-pointers as well. You aren't going to last long in the playoffs if you continually let your opponent shoot 50%-plus from the floor, so hopefully for Washington fans their defense shows up now that they are back at home.

The good news in that regard is the notion that Toronto's bench won't be AS productive in hostile territory, and Washington's defense was 1.1 points better at home than they were overall this season (allow 105.3 at home compared to 106.4 overall). Clearly trying to run and gun with Toronto hasn't worked through two games for the Wizards, so Washington's success in Game 3 is going to be predicated on running Toronto off the three-point line, taking care of the ball, and cleaning up the glass on both ends.

Obviously that's a lot easier said then done, but I do expect Washington's defense to show their teeth in Game 3 and make this game much more physical with Toronto. Whether or not that leads to a Wizards win remains up in the air, but what it should do is see less points up on the scoreboard.

The totals in this series have cashed 'over' tickets both times as it's been a shooting clinic by Toronto and Washington has simply tried to keep up. Game 1's total opened up at 211 before getting bet up and closing around 214, while Game 2's number ended up in the same range at 213.5.

Now, after Toronto has scored 114 and 130 points respectively, and we got 249 combined points in Game 2, Game 3's number as risen by four points and quite frankly that's the definition of an over-adjustment to me.

I've already touched on the idea that Toronto isn't going to get the same amount of production from their depth guys, and Washington's got no choice but to come into this must-win game with a more defensive mindset.

The Wizards have kept four of their last five opponents at home to 103 points or less as that suggests Toronto's offense won't be hitting at at 50% clip again, and just mere regression to the mean on Toronto's shooting percentages in the series suggests the Raptors are going to struggle offensively much more then they have in this series to date.

If Toronto's shots aren't falling then the Raptors are going to have to rely on their own defensive play to carry them as they can't be thrilled about giving up 119 to the Wizards in Game 2 either. Three of the four regular season meetings between these two cashed 'under' tickets and not one of them closed with a total higher than 216.5.

In my eyes, that's probably the number we should have seen as the adjusted opener for Game 3 given the scoring output in the first two games, but I've got no problem taking the extra 1.5 points of value and going low here.

Best Bet: Under 218 points

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

The opening round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs continues Friday night with three Game 3s as the series' shift to the home court of the lower seeds.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers (PK, 209)

The Cleveland Cavaliers asked LeBron James to come out aggressive in Game 2 and lead them to victory over the Indiana Pacers, and he delivered. James will try to get more help and give the Cavaliers the upper hand when the first-round Eastern Conference series shifts to Indiana for Game 3 on Friday tied at one win apiece.

James scored the team's first 16 points to set the tone and finished with 46 as Cleveland barely hung up for a 100-97 victory in Game 2 on Wednesday. "Coach (Tyronn) Lue called the first play for me and it went down, so we went back to it and I was able to get another one," James told reporters. "I just felt like I was in a really good rhythm, so just tried to see how long I could stay in that zone and just try to make a mark on the game early on, especially after the way we started in Game 1." The Pacers dominated the first quarter en route to a Game 1 victory and remain confident heading home despite the tight loss in Game 2. "We really wanted to go home 2-0 but we got one on the road," Indiana center Myles Turner told reporters. "We did our jobs. I can't wait to be back in front of the Indy fans. I hope these guys are ready, I know they are."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN, FS Ohio (Cleveland), FS Indiana

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Pacers opened as 2-point home favorites but as of Thursday night that line has been bet down to a Pick 'Em - this is despite 55 percent of the early Covers Consensus action on Indiana. The total hit betting boards at 208.5 and is up slightly to 209.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (51-33 SU, 32-51-1 ATS, 39-43-2 O/U): Cleveland was embarrassed 98-80 in Game 1 and decided to make a lineup change for Game 2, inserting veterans Kyle Korver and JR Smith into the starting lineup in place of Jeff Green and Rodney Hood. Korver went 4-of-8 from 3-point range to help space the floor and drew praise from his coach. "(Korver) does all the little things it takes to win," Lue told reporters. "If you want to win a championship, you have to do all the little things. Outside of his great shooting, he was just doing all the little things and making the extra efforts, being in the right place defensively."

ABOUT THE PACERS (49-35 SU, 49-35 ATS, 32-51-1 O/U): Indiana All-Star guard Victor Oladipo scored a game-high 32 points in Game 1 but was limited to 22 on 9-of-18 shooting while battling foul trouble in Game 2. "Obviously, we're upset about the loss," Oladipo told reporters. "Just like the first game, it was only one game and this was only one game. We felt as though we had a chance to tie it, a chance to win and we feel confident going home." The Pacers shot 52.6 percent from the floor in Game 2 but struggled to 6-of-22 from 3-point range and committed 17 turnovers.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - C K. Love (Probable, Thumb).

Pacers - No injuries to report.

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
* Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 8-3 in Cavaliers' last 11 overall.
* Under is 13-2-1 in Pacers' last 16 vs. NBA Central.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.




Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards (-2, 218)

The Toronto Raptors showed off the depth of their roster in Game 1, but in Game 2 it was time for a star to shine. The Raptors will try to build off DeMar DeRozan's big game and take a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven first-round Eastern Conference series when they visit the Washington Wizards for Game 3 on Friday.

DeRozan managed 17 points on 6-of-17 shooting in a 114-106 victory in Game 1 but exploded for 37 on 14-of-23 in a 130-119 triumph in Game 2. "I just let the game come to me. I go based off that," DeRozan told reporters. "These days, it's not like I have to have the mindset to go out there and I've got to score 30, 40 points. ... I went out there to be aggressive. With my aggressiveness came 37 points." The Wizards fell behind early in Game 1 and were down 44-27 at the end of the first quarter in Game 2, and getting off to stronger starts is the team's goal. "We need a better start," Washington coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "All five guys need to lock in defensively. They've gotten free for a lot of jump shots, and give them credit, they made them. ... But we've got to be a little better. We've got to have a better start. It's not the only thing, but we've got to start there and then go from there."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2, TSN 1/4/5 (Toronto), NBCS Washington

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: Washington opened as 1-point favorites and there has been some reverse line movement as 57 percent of the Covers Consensus selections are on the Raptors but the spread has moved up to -2. The total hit betting boards at 218 and has yet to move.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (61-23 SU, 45-38-1 ATS, 43-40-1 O/U): DeRozan wasn't alone in Toronto's solid Game 2 performance, and center Jonas Valanciunas outplayed his counterparts on Washington while collecting 19 points and 14 rebounds. "We're strong as a team, we're not strong as individual players,” Valanciunas told reporters. "We did it as a team. We were great defending, helping each other, more than our own strengths. I think this is team sport and when you play it together, support each other, help each other, it’s fun. It gives you extra confidence to enjoy the game." All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry added a double-double as well with 13 points and 12 assists.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (43-41 SU, 37-46-1 ATS, 38-44-2 O/U): All-Star guard Bradley Beal is off to a slow start offensively in the series and was held to nine points on 3-of-11 shooting in Game 2, but defense was his main concern after the loss. "I think we're shooting ourselves in the foot coming out to slow starts, allowing guys to get open 3's, allowing guys to get those shots, allowing guys to get layups," Beal told reporters. "You can't allow a team to get both, it has to be one or the other. You can't give up 3's and layups, or you'll be down 20 in the first quarter like we were. We've just got to go back to the drawing board." Washington is allowing the Raptors to shoot 52.4 percent from the floor in the series.

INJURY REPORT:

Raptors - PG F. VanVleet (Questionable, Shoulder).

Wizards - SG J. Meeks (Out For Season, Suspension).

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 4-0 in Raptors' last 4 vs. NBA Southeast.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Wizards' last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Raptors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.




Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (-6, 203)

Milwaukee Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe says he doesn't know who Terry Rozier is, so it might be time for him to check the scouting report. Rozier fueled Boston to victories in the first two games of the Eastern Conference first-round series and the Celtics look to take a 3-0 lead when the series moves to Milwaukee on Friday.

The unsung Rozier is in the staring lineup due to Kyrie Irving's season-ending knee injury and he torched the Bucks for 23 points in each of the first two games and has yet to commit a turnover. Meanwhile, Bledsoe is averaging just 10.5 points on 9-of-25 shooting and making three turnovers per game and wasn't thrilled when asked about Rozier after a 120-106 loss in Game 2, saying "I don't even know who the (expletive) that is." Celtics coach Brad Stevens took the high road Wednesday when asked about the comment by saying, "I mean, I heard that. Our team is just focused on Game 3." Milwaukee lost in the first round in its past seven postseason appearances and it last prevailed in 2001, when it reached the Eastern Conference finals before losing to the Philadelphia 76ers.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, NBCS Boston, FS Wisconsin (Milwaukee)

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Bucks opened as 6.5-point home favorites and that pointspread is down slightly to -6. 69 percent of early consensus action is on the underdog Bruins. The total hit betting boards at 202.5 and has been nudged up to 203.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (57-27 SU, 52-30-2 ATS, 45-38-1 O/U): Second-year shooting guard Jaylen Brown is also lighting up the Bucks as he made five 3-pointers while scoring 30 points in Game 2 and is averaging 25 in the series. "Ultimately, we just want to win games, so that’s the only thing that we are concerned with," Brown told reporters after his big outing. "We are confident as ever. Teams have been writing us off all year and we just keep proving people wrong, so that’s what we’re going to do." Power forwards Al Horford and Marcus Morris are also off to strong starts in the series with Horford averaging 20 points and 8.5 rebounds and Morris coming off the bench to average 19.5 points and six boards.

ABOUT THE BUCKS (44-40 SU, 34-45-5 ATS, 48-35-1 O/U): Forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo (32.5 points, 11 rebounds, 7.5 assists) and Khris Middleton (28 points, six rebounds) have been superb in the series but haven't received much help from the supporting cast. "We got to play better," Antetokounmpo said. "We got to play with more effort. I think as a team we didn't show up (Tuesday). Hopefully we can go back home and protect our home and play better and get those two wins." Second-year guard Malcolm Brogdon is averaging 13 points in the series but played just 19 minutes in Game 2 despite being 5-of-7 shooting while scoring 10 points.

INJURY REPORT:

Celtics - PG M. Smart (Late April, Thumb), PG K. Irving (Out For Season, Knee), PF D. Theis (Out For Season, Knee), SF G. Hayward (Out For Season, Ankle).

Bucks - No injuries to report.

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Bucks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 6-0 in Celtics' last 6 overall.
* Over is 11-1 in Bucks' last 12 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Milwaukee.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, April 20


Cleveland @ Indiana

Game 711-712
April 20, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
116.093
Indiana
119.675
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 3 1/2
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 1
209
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-1); Under

Toronto @ Washington

Game 713-714
April 20, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
117.986
Washington
121.879
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 4
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-1 1/2); Over

Boston @ Milwaukee

Game 715-716
April 20, 2018 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
118.371
Milwaukee
114.072
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4 1/2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 6
203
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+6); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, April 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (51 - 33) at INDIANA (49 - 35) - 4/20/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 19-45 ATS (-30.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 221-166 ATS (+38.4 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
INDIANA is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 27-18 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
INDIANA is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 13-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 12-6 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (61 - 23) at WASHINGTON (43 - 41) - 4/20/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 197-247 ATS (-74.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 46-38 ATS (+4.2 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 36-46 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
WASHINGTON is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games this season.
WASHINGTON is 152-201 ATS (-69.1 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-5 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (57 - 27) at MILWAUKEE (44 - 40) - 4/20/2018, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 150-112 ATS (+26.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
BOSTON is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
BOSTON is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 35-44 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 9-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 20

Cavaliers @ Pacers (1-1)

Lebron had 46 in Cavaliers’ 100-97 Game 2 win; they led 16-1 early on, but hung on for win. Cleveland’s subs were combined -35 in Game 2; other four starters were 13-32 in Game 2, are 23-62 for series. Pacers were +11 with Oladipo on court, -14 without him- he got in foul trouble and only played 28:07. Both teams shot 50%+ in Game 2. Cleveland is 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Indiana. Under is 4-0-1 in last five series games. Cavs improved to 11-28 on arc last game, after going 8-34 in Game 1. Indiana won 8 of its last 12 games overall.


Raptors (2-0) @ Wizards


Toronto led 76-58 at halftime of Game 2; four of its five starters were +23 or better. Raptors made 13-35 on arc, are 29-65 in series. Toronto is 9-3 in its last dozen games against the Wizards, 3-1 vs spread in last four visits to this arena. Raptors won six of their last seven games overall, are 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. Four of their last five games went over total. Washington lost seven of its last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Wizards need more from Beal; they were -34 with him on floor in Game 2.

Celtics (2-0) @ Bucks

Milwaukee shot 59.7% from floor in Game 2 but lost by 14; not good for them- they were -10 in turnovers (15-5). Antetokounmpo/Middleton shot combined 23-31, but they need help from the others. Celtics shot 53.3% from floor in winning Game 2 by 14 after winning first game in OT; Boston covered its last three games in this arena, and last five games overall with the Bucks. Over is 9-2-1 in last 12 series games; seven of last eight Celtic games, nine of last 11 Buck games went over the total.

Wizards-Raptors
Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211
Tor 130-119, -7, O214

Heat-76ers
Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212
Mia 113-103, +6.5, U217

Phil 128-108, -2.5, O213.5

Bucks-Celtics
Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5
Bos 120-106, -1, O200

Pacers-Cavaliers
Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5

Clev 100-97, -8, U209

Spurs-Warriors
GState 113-92, -8, U209.5

GState 116-101, -9 O205.5

GState 110-97, -3.5, O205.5

Pelicans-Blazers
NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5
NO 111-102, +6, U216

NO 119-102, -3.5, O215.5

Jazz-Thunder
OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205

Utah 102-95, +4, U206.5

Wolves-Rockets
Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5

Hst 102-82, -10.5, U212.5




NBA

Friday, April 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Cleveland is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Indiana is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games at home
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Indiana is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland


Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Toronto is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Wizards
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing at home against Toronto


Boston Celtics
Boston is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games
Boston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Boston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 13 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 10 games
Milwaukee is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games at home
Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 13 games when playing at home against Boston

[StarDust Bum]

Weekend Betting Preview
April 20, 2018

NBA Playoff Betting Weekend Preview

The first round is roaring this year and I am loving every damn second of it. Here’s a breakdown of the Friday and Saturday games to get your blood pumping.

For what it’s worth, the Sunday slate odds aren’t up for obvious reasons but will be live at BetOnline.ag at the conclusion of each preceding game in the respective series. Those games are Boston-Milwaukee Game 4, Toronto-Washington Game 4, Warriors-Spurs Game 3 and Cavaliers-Pacers Game 4.

Indiana Pacers PK over Cleveland Cavaliers (Friday, 7pm ET)
Series Tied 1-1

It’s impossible not to pick the Pacers here. First of all, they’re 24-17 ATS when playing at home, and I know there’s no spread here but that’s still good evidence that this team knows how to defend homecourt. Not too long ago, the Pacers had a map punching win over the Golden State Warriors with a 126-106 win.

Everyone is super impressed with LeBron James doing the heavy lifting thanks to a 46 point performance where he basically scored 46-percent of his team’s points, but the Pacers have a keen lock on how to compete with Cleveland. They’ll use home court advantage to steal another win and take the lead in the series.

The memory of the Cavaliers watching their massive lead in Game 2 evaporate in to thin air, only to win 100-97 is too fresh. These Pacers can and will push hard. Maybe don’t keep Cory Joseph on the court for too long this time.

Toronto Raptors +2.0 over Washington Wizards (Friday, 8pm ET)
TOR Leads 2-0

After shedding the big, fat monkey off their back by finally winning a Game1, the Raptors continued to take care of business by burying Washington in three-pointers with a 130-119 victory. Expect more of the same. Toronto is a juggernaut offensively, and the Wizards are a fun team to talk about but they’re not to be taken seriously. This shaved line is a gift from the oddsmakers despite the overwhelming evidence of Game 3 rubber matches at home when teams are down. This series is ending in four.

Boston Celtics +6.0 over Milwaukee Bucks (Friday, 9:30pm ET)
BOS Leads 2-0

The overtime thriller in Game 1 notwithstanding, the Bucks were completely outworked by a much more disciplined side during their 120-106 loss on Tuesday night. The Celtics have problems with Giannis and Middleton, but who doesn’t? What Boston has successfully done is neutered the limited contributions of the remaining cast. No other player scored more than 12 points for the Bucks in Game 2. Ouch.

Meanwhile, Boston is reving up all the engines and the problem with them is that you never know who the go-to guy is going to be. Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown scored 53 combined points, while Jayson Tatum was abysmal with just 4 points of his own. There are too many weapons on the Celtics who can take over a game. Plus, it’s obvious that the Bucks have painted themselves in to a corner with coaching. They simply don’t have a counterpunch for the combinations being thrown by Brad Stevens.

Philadelphia 76ers -3.0 over Miami Heat (Saturday, 2:30pm ET)
PHI Leads 2-1

Embiid is baaaaaaaack and dropping 23-7-4 right in your face! Miami was able to get a renaissance game out of Dwyane Wade but any momentum that the South Beach Talent Takers had has absolutely gone up in smoke. There is so much balance on the Sixers right now. Six players scored in double-digits in Game 3 during a 128-108 mop job. Betting on Miami at home is cute, but the Sixers are looking for a death blow on Saturday. They’ll find their mark easy.

New Orleans Pelicans -6.5 over Portland Trail Blazers (Saturday, 5pm ET)
NO Leads 2-0

Uh, the Pelicans somehow crushed Portland in two games in one of the toughest arenas in the league and now they get to go back home? I know that Portland is due for a win, but when it comes to riding a hot hand there are none more scorching than these delightfully unexpected Pelicans. Murderous big man Anthony Davis? Yes please. Nikola Mirotic parking himself in the corner and popping threes? I’ll have thirds! Playoff Rondo? I’m in. Jrue Holiday as the best two-way player in the league? I’m drunk, let’s do this!

Houston Rockets -4.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves (Saturday, 7:30pm ET)
Hou Leads 2-0

The expected implosion of the Houston Rockets will have to wait for at least Round 2. These Timberwolves have no idea what they’re doing out there. It’s a mess. I don’t get it. Nerds can’t figure out the usage rate that Thibodeau is unleashing out there. Minnesota is a hot, goddamn mess and I want no part of it. The reduced odds on Houston since they’re on the road are a layup bet in my eyes.

Utah Jazz -4.0 over Oklahoma City Thunder (Saturday, 10:30pm ET)
Series Tied 1-1

I’m all over the place with this matchup. In Game 1, it seemed like Utah was just not going to survive having to play two of the best players in the game. And then they steamrolled Game 2 during a magnificent 102-95 win which included Donovan Mitchell going bananas with 28 points and 6 boards. The Oklahoma City Thunder have a problem in the form of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobbert, so when the Jazz go big like they did in Game 2, there’s no counter for them. Not with a lineup that includes just six players (sorry Raymond Felton, but you don’t count).

Quin Synder figured out his opponent masterfully after suffering a Game 1 loss, and slowing down the three is something that you can do against Oklahoma City because it’s not their main weapon. This might be a zigzag series that follows normal NBA betting logic, or it might be Utah’s turn to take the lead. I can’t tell. I love this series so much. You literally can’t make a bad bet here because George and Westbrook are that good at being takeover artists. But Utah stands as a more likely and reliable play given the edge they have with their bench boss.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, APRIL 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at IND 07:00 PM
IND -1.0
O 207.5

TOR at WAS 08:00 PM
TOR +1.5
O 218.0

BOS at MIL 09:30 PM
BOS +5.0
O 205.5