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Friday's Best Bet
December 15, 2017
Friday NBA Best Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Philadelphia 76ers
NBA bettors have a full slate of games to work with tonight as there are 11 games on tap and some big ones to boot. San Antonio in Houston as the nationally televised nightcap is going to attract plenty of eyeballs, but other games like Utah/Boston and LAC/Washington – which is a rematch of a game last week which L.A won 113-112 – are just as intriguing in their own way.
However, it's the first game on ESPN's Friday night double-header that has caught my eye as we've got Oklahoma City in Philadelphia to take on “The Process.”
Philadelphia (-1); Total set at 212.5
Both of these teams are coming off hard-fought wins in their last outings, as OKC was able to topple the Pacers in Paul George's return to Indiana, while Philadelphia was able to get an OT win in Minnesota against the Timberwolves. Each have had at least a day off since then leading up ton tonight so fatigue won't be a big concern, and given a tight point spread slightly in favor of Philadelphia winning tonight, oddsmakers expect a close game. I'm inclined to agree with them there and I don't really see much value on either team in terms of playing the side.
But this total of 212.5 – which has been bet up since opening around 210.5 late yesterday – has gotten to the point where this number is much too high, especially for an OKC game. The Thunder have had scoring issues all year long as George, Carmelo Anthony, and Russell Westbrook continue to work out the kinks in their new relationship as teammates.
It's because of those big names on the floor that OKC continues to get tagged with slightly inflated totals by oddsmakers (as a way to somewhat cover their ass) but the 101.7 points the Thunder average per game suggests that anything around 210 or more is probably a shade too high.
Obviously some of that has to do with the Thunder's opponent on a particular night, and while Philly is 6th in the league with a 108.6 points per game average, the only Top 3 defensive team they've faced this year (San Antonio, Boston, OKC) has been the Celtics (twice), and each time the 76ers were held to fewer than 100 points. OKC's play on defense has been what's kept them afloat so far this year and I expect it to be their calling card again tonight.
Furthermore, OKC has been lined with a total of 210 or higher 12 times so far this year and their O/U record in those games sits at 4-8 O/U. A 12-game sample size isn't huge by any means, but to have the 'under' hit at a 2-1 clip in that scenario and have bettors already pushing tonight's line up higher makes this play on the low side of tonight's total quite attractive.
With the Thunder also on a 2-10 O/U run against teams from the East, and a 6-14 O/U run in their last 20 on the road things look even better. Each of OKC's last four trips to Philadelphia have stayed below the posted total, and while this will be the first time they've got Anthony and George in the mix in that scenario, a 7-20 O/U run for the Thunder after scoring in triple digits themselves doesn't bode well for all those bettors pushing this line upwards.
Philly is in a favorable 'under' spot as well as they are 1-5 O/U after scoring 100+ themselves as a scoring outburst by Philly tends to attach a higher number to their next contest. The Sixers are also 1-4 O/U after getting an ATS win last time out, and 8-18-1 O/U at home vs a team with a losing record overall. It sounds funny to say, but OKC does indeed have a losing record at 13-14 SU, something I don't think many would have thought would be the case nearly two months into the season.
Yet, all of it adds up to what should be a lower scoring game tonight as this game probably tops out at that 210 number oddsmakers initially put out on the game.
Best Bet: Under 212.5 points
December 15, 2017
Friday NBA Best Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Philadelphia 76ers
NBA bettors have a full slate of games to work with tonight as there are 11 games on tap and some big ones to boot. San Antonio in Houston as the nationally televised nightcap is going to attract plenty of eyeballs, but other games like Utah/Boston and LAC/Washington – which is a rematch of a game last week which L.A won 113-112 – are just as intriguing in their own way.
However, it's the first game on ESPN's Friday night double-header that has caught my eye as we've got Oklahoma City in Philadelphia to take on “The Process.”
Philadelphia (-1); Total set at 212.5
Both of these teams are coming off hard-fought wins in their last outings, as OKC was able to topple the Pacers in Paul George's return to Indiana, while Philadelphia was able to get an OT win in Minnesota against the Timberwolves. Each have had at least a day off since then leading up ton tonight so fatigue won't be a big concern, and given a tight point spread slightly in favor of Philadelphia winning tonight, oddsmakers expect a close game. I'm inclined to agree with them there and I don't really see much value on either team in terms of playing the side.
But this total of 212.5 – which has been bet up since opening around 210.5 late yesterday – has gotten to the point where this number is much too high, especially for an OKC game. The Thunder have had scoring issues all year long as George, Carmelo Anthony, and Russell Westbrook continue to work out the kinks in their new relationship as teammates.
It's because of those big names on the floor that OKC continues to get tagged with slightly inflated totals by oddsmakers (as a way to somewhat cover their ass) but the 101.7 points the Thunder average per game suggests that anything around 210 or more is probably a shade too high.
Obviously some of that has to do with the Thunder's opponent on a particular night, and while Philly is 6th in the league with a 108.6 points per game average, the only Top 3 defensive team they've faced this year (San Antonio, Boston, OKC) has been the Celtics (twice), and each time the 76ers were held to fewer than 100 points. OKC's play on defense has been what's kept them afloat so far this year and I expect it to be their calling card again tonight.
Furthermore, OKC has been lined with a total of 210 or higher 12 times so far this year and their O/U record in those games sits at 4-8 O/U. A 12-game sample size isn't huge by any means, but to have the 'under' hit at a 2-1 clip in that scenario and have bettors already pushing tonight's line up higher makes this play on the low side of tonight's total quite attractive.
With the Thunder also on a 2-10 O/U run against teams from the East, and a 6-14 O/U run in their last 20 on the road things look even better. Each of OKC's last four trips to Philadelphia have stayed below the posted total, and while this will be the first time they've got Anthony and George in the mix in that scenario, a 7-20 O/U run for the Thunder after scoring in triple digits themselves doesn't bode well for all those bettors pushing this line upwards.
Philly is in a favorable 'under' spot as well as they are 1-5 O/U after scoring 100+ themselves as a scoring outburst by Philly tends to attach a higher number to their next contest. The Sixers are also 1-4 O/U after getting an ATS win last time out, and 8-18-1 O/U at home vs a team with a losing record overall. It sounds funny to say, but OKC does indeed have a losing record at 13-14 SU, something I don't think many would have thought would be the case nearly two months into the season.
Yet, all of it adds up to what should be a lower scoring game tonight as this game probably tops out at that 210 number oddsmakers initially put out on the game.
Best Bet: Under 212.5 points
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