Saturday's Best Bet
May 19, 2017
NBA Playoffs Best Bet (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Golden State vs. San Antonio – Game 3
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Golden State (-6.5); Total set at 213.5
The extra days off between Games 2 and 3 were a huge bonus for an injury-riddled Spurs team who are hoping their MVP Kawhi Leonard will be back on the floor.
With or without Leonard in Game 3, a return home to Stan Antonio should serve the Spurs well as they've got their backs to the wall against a Warriors team that has yet to lose in these playoffs.
Obviously whether or not Leonard plays will have a significant impact on the game (and the line), so that makes getting down on this game a little tougher at the moment.
Odds per - Sportsbook.ag
Best Bet: San Antonio +6.5
Knowing that this game is tough to get down on now, this play is based on the assumption that Leonard does suit up for the Spurs. The extra days off should help him enough to at least get out there and contribute in some fashion, especially with San Antonio's season on the line.
No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series hole, so the Spurs know they've got to find a way to win this game outright no matter who is on the floor. If Leonard doesn't suit up, the line will likely jump a point or two higher and if that's the case, grabbing those extra points isn't a bad idea either.
Situationally, San Antonio has to be happy to be back at home as role players typically play much better in comfortable surroundings then they do on the road.
That means that guys like Simmons and Murray should have solid games during their time on the floor, and even the bigger names like Aldridge, Gasol, and Ginobili should be poised to play much better.
Counting out this Spurs team in spots like this over the years has never treated any betting bankroll kindly, and I'm not about to go that route for Game 3.
From the Warriors perspective, they would love to put the dagger in San Antonio here and remain undefeated in these playoffs. But that is a lot easier said then done against a veteran team with their backs against the wall and from my view, this line is a point or two too high.
The Warriors are on a 0-4 SU run after having 3+ days off in their last four tries, while they are also 0-3-1 ATS after scoring 125+.
Compare those numbers to San Antonio's 7-2 ATS run after 3+ days off, and a 4-1 ATS run after allowing 125+ points, and it's tough not to grab the points with the home dog here in Game 3.
So with Leonard's status still up in the air at the time of this writing, some bettors may want to wait on that being confirmed before officially placing a bet.
However, just as the line will go up to +7.5 or more if he's out, this line will likely go down to +5.5 or so if he's confirmed to play.
Sometimes that extra point makes all the different in point spread betting, so deciding to spread out your wagers on the Spurs with some now at +6.5 and some later once Leonard's status is confirmed is another way to attack this game.
May 19, 2017
NBA Playoffs Best Bet (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Golden State vs. San Antonio – Game 3
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Golden State (-6.5); Total set at 213.5
The extra days off between Games 2 and 3 were a huge bonus for an injury-riddled Spurs team who are hoping their MVP Kawhi Leonard will be back on the floor.
With or without Leonard in Game 3, a return home to Stan Antonio should serve the Spurs well as they've got their backs to the wall against a Warriors team that has yet to lose in these playoffs.
Obviously whether or not Leonard plays will have a significant impact on the game (and the line), so that makes getting down on this game a little tougher at the moment.
Odds per - Sportsbook.ag
Best Bet: San Antonio +6.5
Knowing that this game is tough to get down on now, this play is based on the assumption that Leonard does suit up for the Spurs. The extra days off should help him enough to at least get out there and contribute in some fashion, especially with San Antonio's season on the line.
No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series hole, so the Spurs know they've got to find a way to win this game outright no matter who is on the floor. If Leonard doesn't suit up, the line will likely jump a point or two higher and if that's the case, grabbing those extra points isn't a bad idea either.
Situationally, San Antonio has to be happy to be back at home as role players typically play much better in comfortable surroundings then they do on the road.
That means that guys like Simmons and Murray should have solid games during their time on the floor, and even the bigger names like Aldridge, Gasol, and Ginobili should be poised to play much better.
Counting out this Spurs team in spots like this over the years has never treated any betting bankroll kindly, and I'm not about to go that route for Game 3.
From the Warriors perspective, they would love to put the dagger in San Antonio here and remain undefeated in these playoffs. But that is a lot easier said then done against a veteran team with their backs against the wall and from my view, this line is a point or two too high.
The Warriors are on a 0-4 SU run after having 3+ days off in their last four tries, while they are also 0-3-1 ATS after scoring 125+.
Compare those numbers to San Antonio's 7-2 ATS run after 3+ days off, and a 4-1 ATS run after allowing 125+ points, and it's tough not to grab the points with the home dog here in Game 3.
So with Leonard's status still up in the air at the time of this writing, some bettors may want to wait on that being confirmed before officially placing a bet.
However, just as the line will go up to +7.5 or more if he's out, this line will likely go down to +5.5 or so if he's confirmed to play.
Sometimes that extra point makes all the different in point spread betting, so deciding to spread out your wagers on the Spurs with some now at +6.5 and some later once Leonard's status is confirmed is another way to attack this game.
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