The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Tip Sheet
April 16, 2017

Eastern Conference First Round
No. 7 Indiana at No. 2 Cleveland (TNT, 7:00 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Cavaliers 3-1)
Nov. 16 Cavaliers at Pacers (-2.5) 103-93 (Under 208.5)
Feb. 8 Cavaliers (+3.5) at Pacers 132-117 (Over 216)
Feb. 5 Pacers at Cavaliers (-6) 113-104 (Under 219)
Apr. 2 Pacers at Cavaliers (-8) 135-130 (2OT) (Over 214)

2016-17 Postseason (Cavaliers 1-0)
Apr. 15 Pacers at Cavaliers (-9) 109-108 (Over 208.5)

In his previous 11 seasons in the playoffs, LeBron James had never been eliminated in the opening round. In fact, the Cavaliers and Heat never lost Game 1 of the quarterfinals in this stretch with James leading the way, but Cleveland needed to stave off Indiana on Saturday, 109-108 to keep that perfect record intact.

The Pacers had a shot to win it on the final possession, but C.J. Miles misfired as Cleveland dodged a bullet to grab a 1-0 series lead. Indiana managed a cover as nine-point underdogs thanks to a solid performance from All-Star forward Paul George, who scored 29 points. Recently acquired Lance Stephenson brought back some of his old Pacers’ magic by chipping in 16 points off the bench, but the Pacers lost for the eighth consecutive time at Quicken Loans Arena.

James paced the Cavaliers with 32 points and 13 assists, while Kyrie Irving dropped 23 points on 11-of-27 shooting from the floor in Game 1. Cleveland kept Indiana hanging around in the series opener by hitting only 14-of-27 free throw attempts, while getting outrebounded by Indiana, 41-34.

Following the cover on Saturday, Nate McMillan’s squad improved to 7-0 ATS the last seven games, including four straight ATS victories away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Over the previous two postseasons, the Cavaliers have compiled a 6-1 ATS record off a non-cover at Quicken Loans Arena. Only once in James’ playoff career has his teams not gone up 2-0 in the first round as that came back in his first postseason appearance in 2006 against Washington.

Indiana cashed a rare playoff OVER in Game 1 after the Pacers finished UNDER the total in six of seven games against Toronto in the opening round of 2016. Cleveland is currently on a 6-1 OVER run the last seven home contests as the lone UNDER came in the regular season finale against Toronto when James, Irving, and Kevin Love all rested.

The Cavaliers moved to -2000 to clinch this first round series at Sportsbook.ag after sneaking by in Game 1. If you have faith in the Pacers to come back and win this series, it may be time to jump on Indiana at +1000 (Bet $100 to win $1000) after starting the series at +700.

After closing as a nine-point favorite on Saturday, the Cavaliers have dropped to a 7 ½-point favorite in Monday’s Game 2 at Quicken Loans Arena with a total of 210.

Western Conference First Round
No. 7 Memphis at No. 2 San Antonio (TNT, 9:30 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Tied 2-2)
Feb. 6 Spurs at Grizzlies (-1) 89-74 (Under 200.5)
Mar. 18 Spurs (-4) at Grizzlies 104-96 (Over 196)
Mar. 23 Grizzlies at Spurs (-8) 97-90 (Under 197.5)
Apr. 4 Grizzlies at Spurs (-9) 95-89 (OT) (Over 195.5)

2016-17 Postseason (Spurs 1-0)
Apr. 15 Grizzlies at Spurs (-9.5) 111-82 (Over 190)

For the second straight postseason, the Spurs and Grizzlies are hooking up in the opening round. Last season, Memphis was the walking wounded heading into that series as it was short-handed and got swept by San Antonio. The Grizzlies are healthier this time around (for the exception of guard Tony Allen sidelined), but Memphis scored only 52 points in the final three quarters of Saturday’s 111-82 setback at San Antonio.

The Spurs fell behind, 30-25 after one quarter, but stepped up their defense in the final three quarters, while outscoring the Grizzlies, 59-33 in the second half. San Antonio easily cashed as 9 ½-point favorites to pick up its first ATS win against Memphis in five tries this season. The Spurs had only three players in double-figures, led by Kawhi Leonard’s 32 points on 11-of-14 shooting from the floor, while LaMarcus Aldridge contributed 20 points.

The Grizzlies shot 39% from the floor, which included Marc Gasol’s 11-of-18 performance for 32 points. Zach Randolph and Mike Conley, Jr. combined to shoot 8-of-27 from the field for 19 points, while Memphis lost its eighth consecutive playoff game dating back to the 2015 Western Conference semifinals. In fact, Memphis has been limited to 100 points or less in 13 straight postseason contests, as the UNDER has cashed nine times in this span.

The Spurs improved to 8-11 ATS as a favorite in the postseason since 2014, while winning 20 of their last 27 games in the opening round dating back to 2012. In this stretch, Gregg Popovich’s squad has either pulled off a sweep in the first round (2012, 2013, 2016), or been stretched to the limit, reaching a seventh game against the Mavericks in 2014 and the Clippers in 2015.

Just like Cleveland, San Antonio is an overwhelming favorite to advance to the second round as the Spurs are listed at -3500 to move forward after opening the series at -1000. The Grizzlies split the regular season series with the Spurs, but Memphis is climbing an uphill battle in a 1-0 hole as it is listed at a hefty +1500 to beat San Antonio four times at Sportsbook.ag.

The Spurs have been pushed up to 11-point favorites in Game 2, while the total dropped slightly from 190 in Game 1 to 188 ½ for Monday’s contest.

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

04/16/2017 3-5-0 37.50% -1250
04/15/2017 6-2-0 75.00% +1900

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

04/16/2017 .................2 - 2.............- 0.20.................1 - 2 - 1.20
04/15/2017..................3 - 0............+ 3.00.................1 - 2 - 1.20

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Early betting odds on the 2017 Heisman Trophy:

15-2— Sam Darnold (USC), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Lamar Jackson (Louisville)

9-1- JT Barrett, Ohio State

12-1— Jake Browning, Washington

14-1— Deondre Francois, Florida State

15-1— Jalen Hurts (Alabama), Saquon Barkley (Penn State)

16-1— Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend……..

13) Bulls 106, Celtics 102— Isaiah Thomas scored 33 points in 38:00, the day after he found out his 22-year old sister died in a car accident. Boston took 38 3’s, 48 2’s; seems like a lot- they only took 19 foul shots.

12) ESPN had the Cubs on in primetime Opening Night in St Louis, which is fine- they’re World Champs and deserve it; ESPN’s next three Sunday night games were in Queens, Bronx and next week again, Queens. What the bleep are they thinking?

Teams like Toronto, Kansas City and Houston are rarely on national TV, then networks wonder why playoff ratings are low when those teams make it. Promote the whole sport, not just teams in New York, plus the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox.

11) Mets’ first 32 games this season are all against NL East opponents.

10) Miami 4, Mets 2— JT Riddle’s first major league hit was a walk-off homer. The way the Marlins ran the bases in this game, home runs were a good idea.

Justin Boer got thrown out at the plate after maybe the worst slide in baseball history; Giancarlo Stanton got hit with an Ozuna line drive that would’ve put men on 1st and 3rd with one out had the ball not hit him. Ozuna got thrown out at the plate before Riddle’s winning home run.

9) Orioles pit closer Zach Britton on the 10-day DL; their pitching is really thin, but they’re still 8-3 and atop the AL East, but make no mistake about it, Baltimore needs to get healthy soon.

8) Rumors have it that the Chiefs will open Week 1 of the NFL season in Foxboro in a Thursday night game. Falcons were a more logical option, but Atlanta has a new stadium opening and they want to play there in Week 1, so apparently they’re no longer an option for the Thursday game.

7) It rained in Oakland Sunday, and the A’s couldn’t wait to cancel their game with the Astros; the Warriors were playing across the parking lot, the A’s are playing lousy anyway (shortstop Marcus Semien is on the DL, which hurts there defense) and there would’ve been a lousy crowd in the rain.

Giants played their home game across the bay, but the field was a mess- they sell out their games, so it would cost them seven figures to lose a home game to the weather.

6) Toronto-Cleveland-Texas are your last place teams in the American League.

5) Reds and Colorado are in first place in the National League; even after only two weeks, that is odd.

4) Baltimore’s Trey Mancini hit two more homers Sunday, has now hit seven in his first 12 major league games, which is really good.

Blue Jays lost again, are now 2-10, which is really bad.

3) Montreal 3, NY Rangers 1— New York seems to play better on the road. Canadiens lead this series, 2-1.

2) Penguins/Blues both won their games, grabbing 3-0 leads in their first round series.

1— Solid scheduling by the AD at U of Albany- they’re playing at Memphis next year, in a year when the Tigers will be in a total rebuild. Great Danes could actually win that game.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, April 17


Memphis @ San Antonio

Game 519-520
April 17, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
114.849
San Antonio
123.960
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 9
194
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 11
188 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+11); Over

Indiana @ Cleveland

Game 517-518
April 17, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
117.639
Cleveland
126.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 9
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 7 1/2
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-7 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, April 17

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INDIANA (42 - 41) at CLEVELAND (52 - 31) - 4/17/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in April games this season.
INDIANA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 10-3 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 9-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (43 - 40) at SAN ANTONIO (62 - 21) - 4/17/2017, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after a division game this season.
MEMPHIS is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 997-871 ATS (+38.9 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 801-682 ATS (+50.8 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 507-426 ATS (+38.4 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 78-51 ATS (+21.9 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 206-158 ATS (+32.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 178-132 ATS (+32.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-8 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 17

Cleveland held on for 109-108 win in Game 1; Pacers missed 14-footer at buzzer. Cavaliers won their last three games with Indiana, by 15-9-5-1 points, with last two wins by 5 in OT and by a point. Indiana won five of its last six games, covered last seven over is 11-4 in their last 15 games. Cleveland was just 14-27 on foul line in Game 1; they’re a shaky favorite right now. Seven of Cavaliers’ last nine games went over the total- they shot 54% from floor in Game 1. Indiana covered its last four road games.

Spurs won Game 1 by 29 after leading by only 3 at the half; they made 10-19 on arc, shot 53.2% from floor, held Memphis to 39.2%, blocking 11 shots. Memphis starters were combined -23; their subs were -72. Grizzlies lost last three games here, by 7-6-29 points. Memphis lost 10 of its last 13 games overall (under 8-5). Four of Spurs’ last five games went over the total- their Game 1 rout was their first cover in last five home games.

First round playoff series:
Boston-Chicago
Chi 106-102, +7, O207

Cleveland-Indiana
Clev 109-108, -9, O208.5

Toronto-Milwaukee
Mil 97-83, +7.5, U197.5

Washington-Atlanta
Wash 114-107, -5.5, O209.5

Golden State-Portland
GState 121-109, -15.5, O220

San Antonio-Memphis
SA 111-82, -9.5, O190.5

Houston-Oklahoma City
Hst 118-87 -7.5, U227.5

LA Clippers-Utah
Utah 97-95, +6, U198.5

Favorites: 3-5 vs spread
Totals: 5-3 over




NBA

Monday, April 17

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
INDIANA vs. CLEVELAND
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

9:30 PM
MEMPHIS vs. SAN ANTONIO
Memphis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
San Antonio is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Memphis

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Monday, April 17

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Monday’s NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
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Kawhi Leonard had an easy time of it against the Memphis defense in Game 1, scoring 32 points in as many minutes and shooting 11-of-14 from the field and 9-of-9 from the line.

A pair of powerhouse teams trying to protect 1-0 series leads take to the floor Monday. The Cavaliers survived a scare from the Pacers in Game 1 while the Spurs absolutely dismantled the Grizzlies in their series opener.

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5, 210)

Cavs lead series 1-0

ABOUT THE PACERS (42-41 SU, 40-42-1 ATS, 42-41 O/U): C.J. Miles missed a mid-range jumper at the buzzer in Saturday's loss but Indiana just confirmed its belief that it could hang with the defending champions. The last possession of Game 1 was a hot topic of conversation after the contest, with George wondering why he didn't get the ball back after passing out of a double team. "I talked to C.J. about it," George told reporters. "In situations like that, I've got to get the last shot. ... But at the same time, I've got to have trust in my teammates. C.J.'s been in that position in this season where I've needed him to make a big shot and I've kicked to him and he's made that big shot." George finished with 29 points and went 6-of-8 from 3-point range in the loss, marking the sixth time in eight playoff games the last two seasons that he scored at least 25 points.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (52-31 SU, 36-44-3 ATS, 48-34-1 O/U): The Cleveland Cavaliers withstood a late comeback and earned a one-point win in the first game of the Eastern Conference playoffs, but questions about the team remain. Cleveland stumbled out of the top spot in the East with a 12-15 record after the All-Star break, including four straight losses to end the campaign, and Game 1 wasn't the dominant effort the team had been seeking. "The playoffs are about adjustments and what you can do better," Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters "I just think that if we got to those 50-50 balls and the offensive rebounds, that it would have been a totally different game. Hats off to (Indiana). They played well, but we’ll be better." Cleveland went 14-of-27 from the free-throw line in Game 1 and surrendered 12 offensive rebounds.

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as 7.5-point home favorites for Game 2 and the total hit the board at 210.

INJURY REPORT:

Pacers - SG G. Robinson III (Questionable, calf), C A. Jefferson (Questionable, ankle).

Cavaliers - PG K. Felder (Questionable, leg).

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Over is 8-0 in Pacers last 8 road games.
* Over is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.




Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-11, 188.5)

Spurs lead series 1-0

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (43-40 SU, 41-42 ATS, 39-41-3 O/U): The seventh-seeded Grizzlies will try to put the big Game 1 loss behind them and even the best of seven series when they visit the second-seeded Spurs in Game 2 on Monday. The biggest thing the Spurs did to disrupt Memphis was getting point guard Mike Conley out of his rhythm, and the team leader managed just 13 points on 5-of-14 shooting. "They forced other guys to handle the ball," Grizzlies coach David Fizdale told reporters. "We went over it, we expected it, but we just didn't respond well to it. I thought Mike missed some chippies in there in the paint. But give them credit; they really turned the game around defensively against us." The bright spot offensively was center Marc Gasol, who scored 32 points on 11-of-18 shooting while outplaying older brother Pau, who managed six points off the Spurs' bench.

ABOUT THE SPURS (62-21 SU, 42-39-2 ATS, 44-37-2 O/U): San Antonio allowed 30 points in the first quarter of Game 1 but did not surrender more than 19 in any of the following three frames en route to a 111-82 drubbing. San Antonio got a different performance out of their starting point guard, with veteran Tony Parker scoring 18 points on 8-of-13 shooting while stepping up defensively against Conley. "Him being aggressive and knocking down shots and just penetrating, and getting the defense to get an extra guy to go to him is big for us," Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard told reporters. "Not just me, but everybody. He gets us open shots." Leonard had an easy time of it against the Memphis defense while scoring 32 points in as many minutes and shooting 11-of-14 from the field and 9-of-9 from the line.

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 10.5-point home favorites for Game 2 and after their convincing Game 1 victory the public jumped on them and forced a line move up to -11. The total opened at 189.5 and came down a full point to 188.5 by Sunday evening.

INJURY REPORT:

Grizzlies - SG T. Allen (Out Indefinitely, calf), SF C. Parsons (Out For Season, knee).

Spurs - No injuries to report.

TRENDS:

* Grizzlies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 overall.
* Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Monday, April 17


After two days of NBA Playoffs betting, underdogs are 5-3 ATS (3-5 SU) with a 5-3 Over/Under count. Over went 3-1 Sunday.
Two games Monday.

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

04/16/2017 3-5-0 37.50% -1250
04/15/2017 6-2-0 75.00% +1900

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

04/16/2017 .................2 - 2.............- 0.20.................1 - 2 - 1.20
04/15/2017..................3 - 0............+ 3.00.................1 - 2 - 1.20

[StarDust Bum]

Hawks' Millsap ready to match Morris, Wiz with 'MMA' style
April 17, 2017

WASHINGTON (AP) Atlanta forward Paul Millsap got a taste Sunday of what the Washington Wizards have planned for him in their first-round playoff series.

Now he's promising to dish it back.

Markieff Morris told Millsap to shut up during Game 1, escalating a physical showdown between the power forwards. Morris and Millsap exchanged heated words before the teams retreated to their locker rooms at halftime, and more fireworks could be coming in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

Millsap took issue with the way Morris and the Wizards tried to overpower him in the Hawks' 114-107 loss.

''The difference in the game is we were playing basketball and they were playing MMA,'' Millsap said.

Frustrating Millsap is part of the plan for Washington. Two years ago, the Hawks and their 6-foot-8 forward beat a banged-up Wizards team in a six-game second-round series. Morris wasn't with Washington then, though, and his matchup with Millsap could be the difference this time around.

''When you're guarding an All-Star, all you have to do is focus on just making him take tough shots,'' Wizards coach Scott Brooks said. Markieff is ''a very competitive guy. He's the most mild-mannered person that I've been around that has a competitive spirit. He challenges himself to play against an All-Star player like Millsap. It's not easy.''

Morris scored 21 points in his NBA playoff debut and limited Millsap to just 19. He doesn't plan to ease up on Millsap any time soon.

''If we're going to jostle the whole series,'' the 6-foot-10 Morris said, ''then that's what it's going to be.''

All that scrambling inside could create more tension like Sunday's altercation. Millsap channeled Rasheed Wallace - ''It was just two guys playing hard, man, it was two guys playing hard'' - but Morris didn't shy away from initiating the chirping.

''It's all a part of the game, man,'' Morris said. ''It's all love of the game. I trash talk all the time.''

It's not the talk that bothered Millsap, though. The four-time All-Star said he wanted to ''get some moves'' to fit the MMA playing style and vowed to match the Wizards' and Morris' physicality going forward.

''I just got to be more aggressive,'' Millsap said. ''I can't let (anybody) come out here and just push me around. He was more physical than me (Sunday), and if that's how we're going to play, then that's how we're going to play, and I've got to do a better job at that.''

Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer said Millsap and center Dwight Howard can be better inside than they were in Game 1. Some of that is self-inflicted, but Morris also presents a matchup nightmare that Wall knew was possible when the Wizards traded a first-round pick for the power forward at the 2016 trade deadline.

''He changed everything right away for us,'' Wall said. ''We didn't have to double team in the post anymore. If any team had a 4-man that could score, we could go right back to him and he can score on the perimeter and score in the post. He changed our team a whole lot, and he understands that. ... He's doing everything to help our team win, and when he's playing as well as he did today for us, we're unstoppable.''

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, April 17

Eastern Conference – Round 1 – Best of 7 – Game 2 – CLE Leads 1-0

Indiana at Cleveland, 3:00 PM ET
Indiana: Perfect 7-0 ATS in april games
Cleveland: 3-11 ATS off an outright ATS loss

Western Conference – Round 1 – Best of 7 – Game 2 – SAS Leads 1-0

Memphis at San Antonio, 5:30 PM ET
Memphis: 15-7 ATS off a road loss
San Antonio: 0-7 ATS at home off a win against a division rival

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Best Bet
April 17, 2017

NBA Playoffs Best Bet
Game 2: Indiana vs. Cleveland

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Cleveland (-8.5); Total set at 209

With all the talk after Game 1 being about the Pacers missed shot at the buzzer and who on Indiana should have taken that shot, many are failing to remember that Indiana played a hell of a game for 48 minutes and cashed an ATS ticket as sizable underdogs fairly easily.

Tonight the Pacers get another crack at this Cleveland team who still showed that their defensive issues haven't quite been resolved. Will the Pacers get over the hump with the outright win tonight, or will Cleveland hunker down and dominate Indiana like this point spread suggests?


After a 2-0 ATS start to the NBA playoffs with two outright underdog winners in Milwaukee and Chicago, let's get right to tonight's best bet on this Cavs/Pacers game.

Sportsbook.ag Best Bet: Indiana/Cleveland Under 209

The 109-108 score wasn't that uncommon for these two teams as their final three meetings of the year – all played from February or beyond – were high scoring affairs. Cleveland topped the 130+ point mark twice (one in OT) and now game between these two during that span finished with less than 217 points. So why is the 'under' the best bet tonight?

Well for one, the Game 1 shooting percentages for both teams were well above the norm as Indiana was 49.4% from the field while Cleveland came in at 53.8%. Those numbers are absurdly high for an opening game of a playoff series, let alone the opening game of the playoffs in general, and the 22 combined three-point shots made likely won't be reached tonight.

Each side has a much thorough understanding of how the other plans on attacking them and with adjustments critical to success this time of year, both sides should make some of the necessary ones to have more success defensively.

Secondly, I've already touched on the idea that Cleveland “tanked” down the stretch to avoid Chicago, and that they've stated multiple times that while there are issues defensively for them, they were in no hurry to “show their hand” and give competitors ample film to know what to expect.

For all intents and purposes the Cavs stuck to that idea in Game 1, going out there believing they could beat Indiana with their offense alone and that's exactly what happened. However, the fact that Indiana was one make away from stealing Game 1 couldn't have sat well with the Cavs and we should see their defensive intensity pick up quite a bit here.

That's not to say Cleveland will expose their cards face up after one scare, but adding a few wrinkles here and there should make life much more difficult for the Pacers this evening.

Finally, there has been quite a bit of overreaction to how Game 1 played considering many bettors got burned on that total. Game 1 opened up in the 213 range, was instantly bet down to 212 and 211, before further movement saw the game bottom out at 207.5 before a bit of money came back the other way.

With that much action on the 'under' getting burned – and it really was never in question after the 1st half – bettors are expecting a similar script to play out in Game 2 and backing the 'over' because of it.

Right now, VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show about 75% of the bets on tonight's total being on the high side and it's puzzling to think that that many people who felt so strongly about the 'under' in Game 1 can flip their tune in a heartbeat because of one result.

Many of those signs and reasons behind backing an 'under' between these two teams still exist two days later, and you saw in the 4th quarter (41 points scored) that come crunch time both sides aren't afraid to lock it down.

Given how close Game 1 was, expect the defense to reach that “lock down mode” much earlier tonight as those same bettors that got burned with the 'under' in Game 1 and are now flipping to the 'over' will likely get burned again.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, APRIL 17

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IND at CLE 07:00 PM

CLE -8.5

U 209.5

MEM at SA 09:30 PM

SA -10.5

O 189.0

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Playoff Capsules
April 18, 2017

CLEVELAND (AP) Kyrie Irving scored 37 points, Kevin Love added 27 and the Cleveland Cavaliers avoided another fourth-quarter collapse in Game 2, beating the Indiana Pacers 117-111 on Monday night to take a 2-0 lead in the series.

After squeaking out the opener by a point, LeBron James and Co. showed more intensity on defense, more swagger in general and won their 10th straight first-round game over the past three seasons.

However, they nearly blew an 18-point lead in the fourth as the Pacers got within four before Cleveland closed it out at the line.

James added 10 rebounds and seven assists, but had eight of Cleveland's 19 turnovers.

Game 3 is Thursday night.

Paul George scored 32 and Jeff Teague 23 for Indiana, which showed more fight, but now has a steep hill to climb to get back in the series. Cleveland is 12-0 when starting 2-0 in the postseason.

SPURS 96, GRIZZLIES 82

SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Kawhi Leonard had a postseason career-high 37 points and added 11 rebounds and San Antonio beat Memphis to take a 2-0 lead in the first-round series.

San Antonio led for all but 13 seconds in winning its 10th consecutive postseason game over Memphis.

Leonard finished the game 9 for 14 from the field and was 19 for 19 on free throws.

Tony Parker added 15 points for the Spurs, who had three others score in double figures.

Mike Conley scored 24 points, Zach Randolph had 18 points and Marc Gasol added 12 points for the Grizzlies.

Game 3 is Thursday night in Memphis.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s six-pack

Six batters who have come to bat with most men on base this season, and %age of those runners they knocked in:
6) Christian Yelich 41 (14.6%)
T4) Carlos Santana 42 (19.0%)
T4) Kris Bryant 42 (11.9%)
3) Carlos Correa 43 (4.7%)
2) Robinson Cano 44 (15.9%)
1) Pablo Sandoval 46 (13.0%)

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Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) They ran the Boston Marathon Monday; I’m thinking it isn’t healthy to run 26 miles.

A marathon is an event that was established “…….in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory.”

Unfortunately for Pheidippides, as soon as he reported the victory, he collapsed and dropped dead. Like I said, running 26 miles at once might not be good for you.

12) That said, it does take serious onions to run that far; it is demanding, both physically, mentally. Monday, a retired Marine who lost the lower part of his left leg by stepping on an IED in Afghanistan in 2011. ran on his prosthetic leg while carrying a large American flag for the entire 26.2-mile race, finishing in 5:46:13.

That is one tough human.

11) I’m probably not the best person to discuss running; if I drive 26 miles, I’m looking for the drive-thru window at Wendy’s or McDonald’s.

10) Rough start to the year for my A’s; their two best pitchers (Gray/Graveman) are both hurt already, now SS Semien has a broken wrist and is done for couple months. Not like he is Ozzie Smith or anything, but unless they bring highly touted prospect Franklin Barreto up from AAA, best they can do is move Lowrie back to SS and bring a 2B up from Nashville. Oy.

9) Toronto 4, Washington 3 OT— All three series games have gone OT, second time in Washington’s franchise history that has happened. Caps are 1-5 in those six games.

8) Cole Hamels has started three games for Texas this month; Rangers led all three games after the fifth inning. Texas bullpen, however, has allowed 14 runs in 9.2 innings in those games and Texas lost all three.

7) A 17-year old basketball prospect named Kevin Knox was offered $1.4M to play basketball for a Chinese pro team next year, but declined the offer. He’ll announce his college choice next week; most of top programs are involved.

6) Angel Hernandez is a bad umpire; he just is. You watch him work the plate and there is always a lot of crabbing by players during his games there.

5) Carlos Martínez pitched for the Cardinals in the Bronx Saturday; he lost 3-2. Martinez faced 30 batters; 19 of them either walked (8) or struck out (11).

Martinez threw 118 pitches, 25 were called strikes, 19 were swinging strikes, 16 were fouled off, 47 were balls and 11 were put in play. Of the 11 balls put in play, four were hits. Very odd line for him.

4) Brewers 6, Cubs 3— World Champs have lost four in row, are 6-7 overall, 2-5 at home.

3) Cavaliers 117, Pacers 111— Indiana was down 18 after three quarters, but covered thru the backdoor. Kevin Love was +!7; Cavaliers were -11 with him off the floor.

As I type this, Spurs are up 56-30 over Memphis. Not a lot of competition there.

2) NFL schedule gets released Thursday night, the draft is next week. It is freakin’ April, but the NFL has an amazing ability to stay in the news.

1— Utah Jazz have a problem, with Rudy Gobert out for Game 2 with the Clippers, but this year, Jazz are +102 with Derrick Favors on the floor, if they didn’t play the night before. When they played the night before, Favors was -45. No back/backs in the playoffs, good for Utah.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Zig-Zag Theory
April 17, 2017

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs.

The premise is simple:

‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late?

You might be surprised.

Here are point-spread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2016.

Game On, Dude

Overall: 855-760-726-38 (52.9%)
Game Two: 209-169-13 (55.3%)
Game Three: 212-172-6 (55.2%)
Game Four: 175-177-170-8 (49.7%)
Game Five: 142-129-7 (52.4%)
Game Six: 85-81-2 (51.2%)
Game Seven: 32-32-2 (50.0%)

The moderate strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Games 3 and 4 where collectively they become a better than 55% point spread proposition on the blind.

Burn Baby Burn

Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the odds makers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 16 years (2001-2016), going 544-511-28 – or 51.5% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

That’s a decline of 4 full percentage points. Or in bottom line terms, they have been money burners on the blind the last 15 seasons. That’s what I would call a major buzz kill.

Round ‘Em Up

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared during each round of the NBA Playoffs since 1991:

Round One: 410-365-22 (52.9%)
Round Two: 257-222-7 (53.7%)
Round Three: 125-117-7 (51.7%)
Round Four: 63-56-3 (52.9%)

While it appears Round Two holds a scant edge, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round Two have yielded the largest profits, as they are 86-56-3 (60.5%).

Planting The Seeds

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:

No. 1 Seeds: 125-111-5 (53.0%)
No. 2 Seeds: 118-99-4 (54.4%)
No. 3 Seeds: 104-90-9 (53.3%)
No. 4 Seeds: 83-81-1 (50.7%)
No. 5 Seeds: 79-75-3 (51.3%)
No. 6 Seeds: 69-60-2 (53.4%)
No. 7 Seeds: 48-68-4 (41.4%)
No. 8 Seeds: 68-49-5 (58.1%)

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.

Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Rocky Mountain High

So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Simple. Look to support double-digit underdogs that scored 88 or less points in their last game as they’ve gone 32-13-2 ATS since 1991. That’s a pretty high 71.1% winning percentage when you think about it.

So now instead of zigging when you should be zagging, check out the optimum roles outlined above... and enjoy the games.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Bucks (42-40) at Raptors (51-31)
Date: April 18, 2017 7:00 PM EDT

TORONTO -- The Toronto Raptors have been here before, down 1-0 in a first-round playoff series.

After the Milwaukee Bucks earned a 97-83 victory Saturday night at the Air Canada Centre, the Raptors are 0-9 in opening games of first-round playoff series. They are 1-11 in Game 1 overall.

The Bucks go into Game 2 on Tuesday night knowing they can do no worse than a split before the series returns to Milwaukee.

It is one thing to lose, but the way the Raptors played in the second half of Game 1 was surprisingly poor.

Toronto was outscored 51-32 in the second half. All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry scored two points in the second half and four points for the game on 2-for-11 shooting. The Bucks played good defense but the effort was not there from the Raptors, either.

"It sounds like a yearly song we sing but we're going to go as (Lowry) and DeMar (DeRozan) go and he's got to be aggressive no matter what the defense is doing," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said.

"I thought our energy was high on the defensive end, against using our length, trying to make it tough," Bucks coach Jason Kidd said. "They have a lot of talented players over there that are going to put the ball in the basket. You just want to make it as tough as possible on them and I thought Thon (Maker) did that in the second half. I thought Moose (Greg Monroe) did a great job on the pick-and-roll, knowing they were going to put him in the pick-and-roll and he was up for it (Saturday)."

Lowry failed to score in double figures for the first time since Jan. 3 at San Antonio.

"Every shot I took was contested or ran off," Lowry said. "They did a good job. They game-planned really well for us. That's one thing about the playoffs, teams are gonna game-plan for me and DeMar. We gotta figure out ways to make tough shots or everybody else has to help us, we've got to get other guys to get even more open looks."

Lowry is being urged to be more aggressive.

"Every time I (used) a screen, I had four arms around me," Lowry said "Put it this way: I guess I'm (going to) have to force shots. My teammates want me to be more aggressive, so I'm (going to) have to force some more shots. Simple as that."

Another problem for the Raptors is containing Giannis Antetokounmpo, who scored 28 points Saturday. Casey said Toronto must do a better job at getting back in transition.

"It wasn't like they jumped out to a big lead or anything like that, but in the minute where it was important, we didn't do a good job of getting back in transition,' Casey said. "(DeRozan) drives to the basket or (Lowry) drives to the basket and now it's five on four or one on two or three. We need all five men or four men back to guard (Antetokounmpo), and out of that make sure we are in scramble mode and have our scramble rotation in and we didn't do a good job of that."

Antetokounmpo scored nine baskets in the paint Saturday.

"We were taking negative steps going toward the basket instead of getting back," Casey said Sunday. "You know what freight train is coming down the road, so you've got to turn and sprint back. Make sure you have every man available. Our philosophy here from Day 1 is never to go to the offensive boards. There's no reason for our wings to be going into the paint. You might think you're going to get that ball, but you're going to give up something on the other end."

Raptors forward Serge Ibaka, who scored 19 points and had 14 rebounds Saturday, was able to continue in Game 1 after turning an ankle in the third quarter. He did not practice Monday, is listed as day-to-day and is expected to play in Game 2.

Casey commented on the hard screens set by Milwaukee.

"We had numerous situations where they were cracking us with screens, whether illegal or not," Casey said. "If they're going to let us play that way, we've got to set screens that way."

"It's part of the game," Kidd said. "It's physical. It's the playoffs. Everybody is going to set screens. Everybody is fighting for that inch."

Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon, who scored 16 points, said his team was prepared for a rugged battle.

"Physicality was really the emphasis going into the game," Brogdon said. "Playing in that arena is tough. They're always the more physical, faster-paced team at home. We knew we had to match that. All season we've been talking about screening hard and making people feel screens. I thought we did a good job of that."