The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, March 10

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ORLANDO (24 - 41) at CHARLOTTE (28 - 36) - 3/10/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) in home games in March games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 6-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 7-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (52 - 12) at MINNESOTA (26 - 37) - 3/10/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 144-120 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 134-111 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 46-67 ATS (-27.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-3 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (44 - 21) at CHICAGO (31 - 33) - 3/10/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 37-28 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 315-260 ATS (+29.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 96-59 ATS (+31.1 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHICAGO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 123-167 ATS (-60.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (38 - 26) at ATLANTA (35 - 29) - 3/10/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 109-142 ATS (-47.2 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
TORONTO is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 7-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-3 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (33 - 31) at MILWAUKEE (30 - 33) - 3/10/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 210-155 ATS (+39.5 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
INDIANA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 351-423 ATS (-114.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 124-159 ATS (-50.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 5-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (41 - 24) at DENVER (29 - 35) - 3/10/2017, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (11 - 52) at DALLAS (27 - 36) - 3/10/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 64-78 ATS (-21.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 36-27 ATS (+6.3 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
DALLAS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games this season.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in the second half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (39 - 24) at SACRAMENTO (25 - 39) - 3/10/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 145-187 ATS (-60.7 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WASHINGTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 47-74 ATS (-34.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, March 10

Orlando split its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 4-6 vs spread in last ten road games. Three of their last four games went over total. Charlotte is 4-4 since All-Star Game; they’re 1-8 vs spread in last nine home games. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Hornets won their last five games with Orlando (4-1 vs spread); over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Magic lost their last three games in Charlotte, by 8-14-21 points. Orlando

Golden State is 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six road games. Six of their last seven games stayed under. Wolves won five of last seven games (6-1 vs soread); they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six home games. Under is 7-1 in their last 8 games. Warriors won nine of last ten games with Minnesota but Wolves covered seven of last eight; Golden State won its last five visits to Twin Cities (2-3 vs spread). Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Houston lost three of last five games; they covered last four road games. Last three Rocket games went over total. Chicago lost four of last five games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven home games. Last four Bulls’ games stayed under total. Bulls won four of last six games with Houston; home side won six of last seven series games, with three of last four staying under total. Rockets lost last three visits to Chicago, by 24-9-8 points.

Raptors won seven of last eight games; they covered three of last four on road. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Atlanta lost three of last four games; they’re 0-6 vs spread in last six home games. Three of their last four games went over total. Toronto won seven of last ten games with Atlanta; three of last four went over total. Raptors won three of their last four visits to Peachtree Street.

Indiana is 4-3 since All-Star Game; they covered three of last four road games. Eight of their last nine games stayed under total. Bucks won/covered their last four games; they covered last three home games. Under is 6-0-1 in their last seven games overall. Road team won four of last five Indiana-Milwaukee games; Pacers won three of last five visits to Milwaukee. Six of last eight series games went over.

Celtics won four of their last five games against Denver; they won their last two visits to Colorado, by 1-20 points. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Boston is 4-5 in its last nine games, 3-4 in last seven on road; under is 7-0-2 in their last nine games. Denver is 4-5 in its last nine games, losing three of last four home games. Six of their last nine games stayed under the total.

Brooklyn lost 19 of last 21 games; they’re 9-4 vs spread in last 13 road games. Last four Net games went over total. Mavericks won/covered their last five home games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games overall. Dallas won three of last four games with the Nets; road teams won eight of last ten in series. Brooklyn won four of last five games in this building. Three of last four series games stayed under total.

Washington won five of its last six games; they won eight of last nine road games. Last four Wizard games went over total. Kings lost their last six games; they’re 6-4 vs spread in last ten home games. Under is 8-2 in their games since the Cousins trade. Home side won last seven Washington-Sacramento games; Wizards lost last four visits here (0-3 vs spread in last three). Three of last four series games stayed under.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, March 10

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. CHARLOTTE
Orlando is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing Charlotte
Charlotte is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Orlando
Charlotte is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando

8:00 PM
TORONTO vs. ATLANTA
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Atlanta is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Toronto
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Toronto

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. MILWAUKEE
Indiana is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing Milwaukee
Indiana is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana

8:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Golden State
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

8:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Houston's last 24 games when playing Chicago
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

9:00 PM
BOSTON vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games on the road
Boston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston

9:00 PM
BROOKLYN vs. DALLAS
Brooklyn is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Brooklyn is 2-19 SU in its last 21 games
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

10:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. SACRAMENTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Sacramento's last 9 games when playing Washington
Sacramento is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Friday
March 9, 2017

Game of the Night – Toronto (38-26 SU, 35-28-1 ATS) at Atlanta (35-29 SU, 29-35 ATS)

Despite losing Kyle Lowry to a wrist injury right before the second-half of the season began, the Raptors have turned some heads with a 5-2 record without the All-Star point guard. The wins haven’t been exactly pretty but it’s hard to replace a player that is averaging 22.8 points per game and 6.9 assists.

During his seven-game absence, the Raptors are averaging 101.2 PPG but the defense has stepped up by only allowing 99 PPG. The ‘under’ has gone 5-2 and is 17-8 in the last 25 for Toronto.

The Raptors opened as short road underdogs (+1) on Friday versus Atlanta and this will be the third and final meeting between the pair this season. They met twice from Toronto in December and Atlanta earned a split as the Raptors earned a 40-point (128-84) win in the first matchup before the Hawks captured a 125-121 shootout victory in the second encounter.

If the postseason would begin tomorrow, these teams would meet in the first round with Toronto having the homecourt edge.

Fast forward to Friday and bettors could be hesitant to back the Hawks in this spot due to their recent form. The club has gone 3-5 since the All-Star break and is just 1-7 ATS with the lone win coming in a surprising effort at Boston (114-98) on Feb. 27.

At home, the Hawks have gone 2-4 during this span and the two victories came against teams with losing records (Nets, Mavericks). To be fair, the losses were against the top two teams in the league (Warriors, Cavaliers) while another was against the red-hot Heat and the fourth came on a buzzer beater to Indiana.

When you take all that into consideration, the line could seem a little off considering the Raptors gave much more in the earlier matchups (-7 ½, -8) at home. I understand that Lowry is ‘out’ but Atlanta’s form is very suspect yet they received a quick bump from pro bettors.

Perhaps the sharps are aware that the Hawks have played very well versus the Atlantic Division this season, going 10-3 SU and 6-7 ATS. Meanwhile, Toronto is a pedestrian 7-5 versus the Southeast this season and it heads to Miami on Saturday for a back-to-back spot.

The total opened at 199 ½ and was pushed up to 201. As mentioned above, the Raptors have been a solid lean to the ‘under’ and Atlanta enters this game on an 8-2 run to the low side.

Road Favorites

Friday’s card is expected to have four teams laying points on the road. Opening numbers haven’t been posted yet for one of the matchups (Boston-Denver) due to injuries for the Nuggets (Jokic, Gallinari).

Even if those players go, I still don’t see Boston being listed as a road underdog in this matchup, especially after it upset Golden State on Thursday. If that’s the case, then I would respect the number and give Denver a second look.

Golden State (-5) at Minnesota: To no surprise, the Warriors have been favored in every road game this season and they’ve gone 26-8 SU and 14-19-1 ATS. They did just earn a win and cover at Atlanta on Mar. 6 yet they’re just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six away. The Timberwolves are 0-2 versus Golden State this season but they usually receive double digits and that’s not the case on Friday.

Boston (TBA) at Denver: The Celtics have been one of the best bets as road favorites this season, going 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS. Make a note that three of the losses came in their last six on the road and that includes a 109-106 setback at Phoenix on Mar. 5. The Nuggets have been terrible (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) as home ‘dogs and the ‘over’ has gone a perfect 9-0 in those games.

Houston (-4 ½) at Chicago: The Rockets have gone 14-8 SU and 12-10 ATS in this role. Based on those records, you can see that Houston received backdoor treatment versus the spread twice and both of those covers missed by a combined three points. So if you’re leaning Chicago in this matchup, a money-line should be warranted and confidence should be high with the Bulls going 7-3 as home ‘dogs this season.

Washington (-8) at Sacramento: Of the road favorites in action on Friday, the Wizards have the least experience in this role but they’ve managed to go 8-4. Unfortunately for some, they burned bettors with a 5-7 ATS record and this number (-10 ½) versus the Kings is quite healthy. Total bettors should note that the ‘over’ has gone 9-3 in these games. Sacramento is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS as a home ‘dog since trading DeMarcus Cousins.

Hot and Hotter

If the postseason began today, the Bucks and Mavericks would both be on the outside looking in. Fortunately, the pair has a little more than a quarter of a season left and they’re rolling right now on the hardwood and at the betting counter.

Milwaukee (30-33 SU, 27-36 ATS) closed the first-half of the season with a strong push and it’s starting to show more effort in the second-half. The Bucks have won and covered their last four and they’ve gone 8-3 in their last 11. Five of those wins did come at home but that includes victories over the Raptors and Clippers. The defense has improved during this 11-game span (101.5 PPG) and that’s helped the ’under’ go 8-3. Knowing that 11 of the final 16 games are on the road, the sense of urgency to win these home games has to be very high for Jason Kidd’s squad. The Pacers visit the Bradley Center on Friday and the Bucks have already handled them twice this season, fairly easily too (125-107, 116-100). Milwaukee has gone 8-4 versus Central opponents and that’s the best record amongst the five teams in that division.

Dallas (27-36 SU, 36-27 ATS) has been on fire, covering 16 of its last 22 games. The Mavericks enter Friday’s game versus Brooklyn on a six-game winning streak versus the spread and they won five of those games straight up. Dallas has gone 8-1 both SU and ATS as a home favorite this season and that includes Tuesday’s 122-111 win over Los Angeles. The Mavericks shot very well in that game and still covered (-9) the number despite a lackadaisical fourth quarter.

Friday’s matchup presents a similar opponent in Brooklyn that likes to chuck and you might wonder if this ATS luck will eventually come to an end. The Nets have covered two straight and four of their last six games since the All-Star break and the defense, for their standards, has been better the last two games (109.5 PPG). Dallas opened as a 9 ½-point home favorite and it’s expected to have backup point guard J.J. Barea back in the mix on Friday.

Total Notes

The Bulls have been the best ‘under’ bet in the NBA with a 40-24 mark and that includes a 19-13 record at the United Center. Chicago has watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight games entering Friday’s matchup, largely due to an offense averaging 92.3 PPG during this span.

Tom Thibodeau’s defense is starting to take shape lately with Minnesota holding five of its last six opponents under 100 points. The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.

Golden State owns the best ‘under’ record on the road this season, producing a 23-11 mark to the low side.

Charlotte has seen the ‘under’ go 18-12 at Time Warner Cable Arena this season and that includes a 5-0 run in its last five at home.

The Wizards have seen the ‘over’ cash in their last four games and the offense has been on fire during their most recent trip, scoring 131 and 123 in the previous two stops.

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Friday
March 10, 2017

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Celtics are 12-0 ATS (9.04 ppg) on the road with less than two days rest after they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers since Oct 29, 2016.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Raptors are 0-10 OU (-13.90 ppg) with rest off a road game since Jan 03, 2017.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mavericks are 10-0-1 ATS (5.91 ppg) after Wesley Matthews took fewer than 10 shots last game since Nov 06, 2016.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Hawks are 0-11 ATS (-13.86 ppg) at home when the line is within 3 of pick since Apr 01, 2016.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Wizards are 9-0 OU (13.11 ppg) off a win in a road game in which John Wall had at least 10 assists since Apr 03, 2016.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, MARCH 10

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ORL at CHA 07:00 PM

ORL +8.0

U 206.5

IND at MIL 08:00 PM

MIL -3.0

U 205.5

GS at MIN 08:00 PM

MIN +5.0

U 213.5

HOU at CHI 08:00 PM

CHI +5.5

U 224.0

TOR at ATL 08:00 PM

TOR +2.5

U 201.0

BK at DAL 09:00 PM

DAL -11.0

O 212.5

BOS at DEN 09:00 PM

BOS -3.0

U 222.0

WAS at SAC 10:30 PM

SAC +8.0

O 213.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Odds to win major league ERA title this season:

9-5— Clayton Kershaw

5-1— Madison Bumgarner

8-1— Noah Synderaard

10-1— Jon Lester

12-1— Max Scherzer

15-1— Jake Arrieta

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Wrapping up a busy Friday of basketball

13) Duke 93, North Carolina 83— UNC point guard Joel Berry got in foul trouble and Carolina fell apart. Did they keep him out too long? Doug Gottlieb called it coaching malpractice. Duke made 10-17 on the arc and wins for the third day in a row- they play Notre Dame in the ACC final tonight.

12) Arizona 86, UCLA 75— No love lost between these two; Wildcats called timeout with 0:01 left, apparently in retaliation for Bruins doing a similar thing in Tucson last month. Coaches had words in the handshake line. Arizona plays Oregon for Pac-12 title tonight.

3:20 into this game, Bill Walton is hugging someone who patted him on the back at the broadcast table- while they’re on the air. It is Julius Erving, wearing a golf cap and shorts. He stopped by to say hello. Don’t see that every day.

11) Marshall 93, Louisiana Tech 77— #2-seed in Conference USA goes down; Thundering Herd was an amazing 19-35 on the arc; when you do that, you win. Marshall scored 1.31 points per possession, a very high number.

Over last five years, La Tech is 70-18 in conference play, but with zero NCAA tournaments; they are 4-5 in conference tournaments. For mid-majors, the conference tournament is the thing.

10) Michigan 74, Purdue 70 OT— Quite a week for the Wolverines, who played three guys 40:00+ in this game, after hammering Illinois yesterday. Tomorrow they play for third day in row against Minnesota, another very hot team.

9) Davidson 73, Dayton 67— Big upset in Atlantic 14; Wildcats got 34 from senior G Gibbs, and Aldridge played 40:00 for second day in a row.

8) Vanderbilt 72, Florida 62— Commodores beat Florida three times this season; is it enough to get them in the Field of 68? Commodores are 19-14; a win over Arkansas today might be needed.

7) Richmond 70, George Washington 67— Spiders’ best player is senior TJ Cline, a 6-9 kid who is a very good passer, smart player- he is also Nancy Lieberman’s son, a fact that the announcers in this game beat to death. We get it, his mom was a great player. Don’t need to interview her (or any parent), don’t need to see her on the screen six times a game.

Richmond’s coach played at Princeton, so the Spiders spread the floor a lot and pass the ball well; they led this game 68-62 with 3:42 left but never scored again until a breakaway layup at the buzzer provided the final margin.

6) Game of the Day: Cal-Bakersfield 81, Utah Valley 80, 4OT— Roadrunners forced 28 turnovers (+12) and advance to the WAC final tonight at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

5) Nevada 83, Fresno State 72— Wolf Pack had already lost twice to Fresno State this season, trailed by 11 at the half in this game, but used a 16-0 run in second half to win and advance to the Mountain West final, on their arch-rival’s home court in Las Vegas.

4) Creighton 75, Xavier 72— Musketeers hit a 3 to tie game, then Creighton won it with another 3-pointer as a team from Omaha beat a team from Cincinnati in the Big East tournament. If I was a kid and did lousy on a Geography test in school, I’d blame the Big East commissioner.

3) Big Sky final: Top-seeded North Dakota (the Fighting Hawks, not Fighting Sioux anymore) will face Weber State in the final in beautiful downtown Reno.

Big West final: Top-seeded Cal-Irvine will face Cal-Davis after the Aggies nipped Fullerton in OT late Friday night. Davis is looking for its first Big West championship.

2) West Virginia 51, Kansas State 50— Mountaineers shot 6-32 (6 for 32!!!!) in the first half, but hung in there, survived and may have snuffed out K-State’s last chance for an NCAA bid.

1— Kent State 68, Ohio U 66— Upset in MAC semis produces a final between arch-rivals, Kent and MAC kingpin Akron. Golden Flashes haven’t been in NCAA’s since 2008.

All the #1 seeds who played Friday won. Unusual.

There is an 11am tipoff for Albany-Vermont; my alma mater is trying for their sixth America East title. I better sleep fast. ��

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 11

Utah won its last four games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Three of their last four games went over. Oklahoma City lost four of last five games overall but won/covered eight of last ten at home. Five of their last seven games went over. Thunder won eight of last ten games with Utah; eight of last ten series games stayed under the total. Jazz lost their last five visits to Oklahoma (2-3 vs spread).

76ers lost six of last seven games; they’re 5-1 vs spread in last six road games. Over is 9-4 in their last thirteen games. Clippers won three of last four games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven home games. Under is 3-1-2 in their last six games. LA won nine of last ten games with Philly (8-2 vs spread); four of last five series games went over total. 76ers lost last four series games in Staples Center (0-4 vs spread).

Knicks lost three of last four games; they’re 6-9 vs spread in last fifteen road games. Five of their last six games stayed under. Pistons won/covered 10 of last 12 home games; they won six of last nine games overall. Under is 8-4 in their last twelve games. Home side won last five New York-Detroit games; Knicks lost four of last five visits to Detroit (2-3 vs spread). Five of last seven series games went over total.

Pelicans lost six of last eight games, are 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Under is 10-1 in their last eleven games. Hornets won three of last four games; they won/covered last two at home, after an 0-8 spread skid at home. Under is 3-1 in their last four games. Home side won last seven New Orleans-Charlotte games; Pelicans lost last three visits here, by 3-4-9 points (0-2-1 vs spread). Eight of last nine series games went over total.

Cleveland lost its last three games; they’re 6-9 vs spread in last fifteen road games. Eight of their last nine games stayed under. Magic lost three of last four games; they’re 5-11 vs spread in last 16 home games. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Cavaliers won their last ten games with Orlando (9-1 vs spread); they won their last five visits to Magic Kingdom (4-1 vs spread). Three of last four series games stayed under.

Raptors won seven of last nine games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. Under is 8-3 in their last eleven games. Heat won 12 of last 13 home games, covering last four; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games. Toronto won five of its last seven games with Miami; home side won last five series games. Three of last four series games went over. Raptors lost last two visits to Miami, by 7-12 points.

Minnesota won six of last eight games; they won/covered four of last five home games. Eight of their last nine games stayed under. Milwaukee won/covered its last five games; they covered last four home games. Under is 7-0-1 in their last eight games. Bucks won four of last five games with Minnesota; six of last nine series games stayed under total. Wolves lost last two visits to Milwaukee, by 14-15 points.

Warriors are sitting bunch of good players tonight; be careful with this game. Golden State lost four of last six games; they’re 1-6 vs spread in last seven road games. Seven of their last eight games stayed under total. San Antonio won nine of last ten games but is 0-6 vs spread in its last six. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Spurs won six of last ten games with Golden State (under 7-3). Warriors lost three of last four visits to Alamo (1-3 vs spread).

Suns lost their last six road games, covering one of last five. Five of last six Phoenix games went over total. Dallas won its last six home games (5-1 vs spread); they covered six of last seven games overall. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Mavericks won five of last six games with Phoenix; three of last four series games stayed under total. Suns lost three of last four visits to Dallas, but covered four of last six.

Atlanta is 4-6 in its last ten games, 4-6 vs spread in its last ten road games. Four of their last five games went over total. Grizzlies lost their last four games (0-4 vs spread); they’re 2-7 vs spread in last nine home games. Last five Memphis games went over the total. Hawks won three of last four games with Memphis; teams split last four meetings played here. Four of last five series games stayed under.

Wizards won six of last seven games; they’re 8-2-2 vs spread in last dozen road games. Last five Washington games went over total. Trailblazers won last four games; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six home games. Last six Portland games went over total. Home side won six of last seven Washington-Portland games; Wizards lost last three visits to Portland, by 13-7-7 points. Five of last six series games went over total.

Nuggets won four of last six games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. Four of their last five games stayed under. Sacramento lost its last seven games; they’re 1-3-1 vs spread in last five home games. Three of their last four games went over. Kings won five of last six games with Denver; eight of last ten series games went over the total. Nuggets lost three of last four visits to Sacramento (1-3 vs spread).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, March 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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3:00 PM
UTAH vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Utah is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

3:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. LA CLIPPERS
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Philadelphia's last 23 games
LA Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at home
LA Clippers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games at home

5:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. DETROIT
New York is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
New York is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing New York

7:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. ORLANDO
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Orlando is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games

7:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CHARLOTTE
New Orleans is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Charlotte is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Charlotte is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games

8:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. MILWAUKEE
Minnesota is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
TORONTO vs. MIAMI
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

8:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

9:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. DALLAS
Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Phoenix

9:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. MEMPHIS
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games at home

10:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PORTLAND
Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Portland's last 19 games when playing at home against Washington
Portland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington

10:30 PM
DENVER vs. SACRAMENTO
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Sacramento is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Sacramento is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, March 11


Denver @ Sacramento

Game 723-724
March 11, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
116.148
Sacramento
107.636
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 8 1/2
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
N/A

Washington @ Portland

Game 721-722
March 11, 2017 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
119.534
Portland
125.726
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 6
229
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 4
223
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-4); Over

Atlanta @ Memphis

Game 719-720
March 11, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
118.004
Memphis
120.601
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 2 1/2
195
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 5
204
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+5); Under

Phoenix @ Dallas

Game 717-718
March 11, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
117.278
Dallas
117.968
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7 1/2
215
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+7 1/2); Under

Golden State @ San Antonio

Game 715-716
March 11, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
133.801
San Antonio
127.274
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6 1/2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
N/A

Minnesota @ Milwaukee

Game 713-714
March 11, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
118.310
Milwaukee
114.853
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
198
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 2
203
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+2); Under

Toronto @ Miami

Game 711-712
March 11, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
113.173
Miami
127.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 14
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 5
201 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-5); Over

Cleveland @ Orlando

Game 709-710
March 11, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.672
Orlando
117.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 9 1/2
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
N/A

New Orleans @ Charlotte

Game 707-708
March 11, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
122.504
Charlotte
117.562
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 5
196
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 3
201 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3); Under

New York @ Detroit

Game 705-706
March 11, 2017 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
117.535
Detroit
113.031
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
by 4 1/2
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 6
212
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+6); Under

Philadelphia @ LA Clippers

Game 703-704
March 11, 2017 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
111.847
LA Clippers
120.752
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 9
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 13 1/2
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+13 1/2); Over

Utah @ Oklahoma City

Game 701-702
March 11, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
119.287
Oklahoma City
121.610
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 2 1/2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
N/A

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 11

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UTAH (41 - 24) at OKLAHOMA CITY (36 - 29) - 3/11/2017, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 165-127 ATS (+25.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=98 points/game since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=98 points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
UTAH is 70-44 ATS (+21.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-3 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (23 - 41) at LA CLIPPERS (39 - 26) - 3/11/2017, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 4-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (26 - 39) at DETROIT (32 - 33) - 3/11/2017, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 110-156 ATS (-61.6 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-4 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (25 - 40) at CHARLOTTE (29 - 36) - 3/11/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in home games in March games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games on Saturday games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 47-74 ATS (-34.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 162-202 ATS (-60.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (42 - 21) at ORLANDO (24 - 42) - 3/11/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ORLANDO is 28-37 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games this season.
ORLANDO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a division game this season.
ORLANDO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 8-0 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (38 - 27) at MIAMI (31 - 34) - 3/11/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 46-32 ATS (+10.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 9-6 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-5 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (27 - 37) at MILWAUKEE (31 - 33) - 3/11/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 24-40 ATS (-20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 352-423 ATS (-113.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 144-185 ATS (-59.5 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 248-305 ATS (-87.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after allowing 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 56-89 ATS (-41.9 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 51-91 ATS (-49.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (52 - 13) at SAN ANTONIO (50 - 14) - 3/11/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 988-862 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 78-64 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 501-419 ATS (+40.1 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 159-122 ATS (+24.8 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 202-142 ATS (+45.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 173-128 ATS (+32.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 4-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 4-4 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (21 - 44) at DALLAS (28 - 36) - 3/11/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 82-68 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
DALLAS is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games this season.
DALLAS is 316-263 ATS (+26.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
PHOENIX is 148-108 ATS (+29.2 Units) after allowing 115 points or more since 1996.
PHOENIX is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (36 - 29) at MEMPHIS (36 - 29) - 3/11/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 91-64 ATS (+20.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
ATLANTA is 72-53 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (40 - 24) at PORTLAND (28 - 35) - 3/11/2017, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WASHINGTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 26-37 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (30 - 35) at SACRAMENTO (25 - 40) - 3/11/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 168-219 ATS (-72.9 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
DENVER is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 7-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 7-3 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Saturday
March 11, 2017

ATS Rankings · Totals (O/U) Report · Betting Projections It’s been a solid week of back-and-forth NBA action, especially for bettors. After watching the underdogs go 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread on Thursday, we saw the favorites strike back on Friday with a 6-2 record while covering four of those games. Seven of the 16 teams in action last night were held under 100 points and that helped the ‘under’ go 6-2.

Bombs Away

If you’re looking for the hottest team in the league, then check out the Miami Heat (31-34 SU, 39-26 ATS). Since starting the season 11-30 and what looked like an automatic trip to the NBA Draft Lottery, the club has turned it around in emphatic fashion.

The Heat are 20-4 in their 24 games and the success has been directly attributed to shooting, in particular 3-point shooting. The club couldn’t buy a shot in the first-half of the season and was ranked 26th but they’re now 12th and if you look at the numbers since the aforementioned run, they’re the best 3-point shooting team at 40.8 percent. They’ve hit at least 17 bombs from 3-point land in each of their last three games, all victories.

What’s even more impressive is that Miami has gone 20-4 against the spread during this span. On Saturday, the club will host Toronto (38-27 SU, 35-29 ATS).

The Heat are listed as a five-point home favorite over Toronto. The Raptors come into this game without point guard Kyle Lowry and they’ll be playing on no rest. The club has gone 5-3 without Lowry and one of the losses came on Friday to Atlanta (105-99).

As a road underdog, Toronto has struggled to a 5-8 record. However, they’ve gone 9-4 ATS in those games and they’ve covered four of their last five in this role with the lone loser coming to Atlanta last night.

The Raptors defeated the Heat 96-87 on Nov. 4 as seven-point home favorites. These teams met in the playoffs last season and the home team went 5-2 in those games.

Western Showdown?

Saturday’s “Matchup of the Day” was expected to take place from the AT&T Center with San Antonio (50-14 SU, 34-20 ATS) and Golden State (52-13 SU, 29-34-2 ATS) squaring off in a key Western Conference affair. Unfortunately, the game is likely going to be a major disappointment since both clubs won’t be at full strength.

On Friday afternoon, Spurs All-Star Kawhi Leonard was put into the league’s concussion protocol and will be ‘out’ for this matchup. Then later that night, Golden State head coach Steve Kerr announced that Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and Klay Thompson will all rest and not play Saturday night at San Antonio.

While Kerr and the Warriors will take some heat from fans and ABC, the move is understood. Golden State is already dealing with the injury to Kevin Durant and its likely worn out after playing seven games in seven cities during the past 12 days.

Truth be told, it wouldn’t been tough making an argument for either team in this spot just based on their form.

Since the All-Star break, Golden State has gone 5-4 SU and 1-8 ATS. The Warriors have dropped two straight games and that includes a 103-102 loss at Minnesota last night. Since Durant went down in a 112-108 loss at Washington, the team has gone 2-3 and is only averaging 103.5 points per game. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in that span and is 8-2 in the last 10 for Golden State.

The Warriors remain the best ‘under’ bet on the road this season with a 24-11 (68.5%) record.

San Antonio also enters this game off a loss, which occurred on Thursday at Oklahoma City (102-90). The setback snapped a nine-game winning streak for the club. Despite the solid run, the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in six straight games.

Even with Leonard out of the lineup, the Spurs are much deeper than the Warriors and are deserving favorites in this matchup. This will be the first time that Golden State is listed as an underdog this season.

In the season opener on Oct. 25, San Antonio diced up Golden State 129-100 as an 8 ½-point road underdog. Another double-digit victory could be in hand Saturday and that will help the Spurs trim into the Warriors 1 ½-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the West.

The pair will meet one more time this season on Mar. 29 from San Antonio.

For those interested in futures, Golden State remains an odds-on 4/9 favorite (Bet $100 to win $44) to win the West at Sportsbook.ag while San Antonio is a 7/2 choice (Bet $100 to win $350).

ABC will provide national coverage of this matchup at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Total Notes

DeMarcus Cousins is a great talent but he’s one player and New Orleans is starting to find that out, especially on offense. Since they acquired the big man, they’ve been held under 100 points in five of eight games and one of offensive outbursts came when he was out with a suspension. The ‘under’ has gone 7-1 during this span.

Memphis is on a 5-0 run the ‘over’ and the defense has been a mess lately, surrendering 115 PPG in this span.

The Timberwolves have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight and seven of their last eight games. Minnesota is allowing just 91.6 PPG in its last five and that includes a 103-102 stifling victory over Golden State on Friday.

Portland (6-0 L6) and Washington (5-0 L5) will meet tonight at the Moda Center and they both bring strong ‘over’ runs into this matchup. Five of the last six meetings between this pair have seen the high side cash.

Zero Days Rest

We had 16 teams play last night and 24 will be action on Saturday which means plenty of teams are playing on no rest.

Listed below are SU and ATS records for each clubs plus any notable trends to watch.

Orlando: 3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS (Magic have dropped four straight, allowing 112.8 PPG)

Charlotte: 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS (Over has gone 8-4, which includes 4-1 in last five)

Minnesota: 4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS (Three of the four wins came on the road)

Milwaukee: 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS (Since February, 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS)

Toronto: 6-8 SU, 7-6-1 ATS (Under 4-1 in last five, held under 100 in three of those games)

Golden State: 10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS (3-1 both SU and ATS last four. Over 3-1 as well)

Atlanta: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS (0-2 SU and ATS since the All-Star break)

Dallas: 2-11 SU, 6-7 ATS (After 0-10 start, Mavs 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS last three)

Washington: 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS (Wizards 4-0 both SU/ATS last four, Over 10-2)

Denver: 3-10 SU, 5-7-1 ATS (2-0 both SU and ATS since the All-Star break)

Sacramento: 4-10 SU, 6-7-1 ATS (Under has hit in four straight games)

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Saturday
March 11, 2017


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Trail Blazers are 0-12 ATS (-8.50 ppg) off a win in a home game in which they had more than 10 blocks since Mar 07, 2004.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Magic are 12-0 OU (7.42 ppg) with no rest off a road game after scoreing 15+ points less than Vegas projected since Feb 01, 2005.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Timberwolves are 10-0 ATS (11.55 ppg) on the road after a game as a home dog in which Andrew Wiggins was the high scorer since Feb 02, 2015.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Hawks are 11-0 OU (12.95 ppg) off a win as a home favorite since Dec 09, 2016.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Wizards are 10-0 OU (15.60 ppg) off a win in a road game in which John Wall had at least 10 assists since Apr 03, 2016.

[StarDust Bum]

Curry, Klay, Green, Iguodala out at Spurs
March 10, 2017

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) The showdown between the top two teams in the Western Conference is going to be lacking a whole lot of star power.

Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr says Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala all will sit out the nationally televised game on Saturday night in San Antonio against the second-seeded Spurs.

''It's my call and it's the right thing to do in terms of the way the season is playing out and the way the minutes have gone and (Kevin Durant's) injury,'' coach Steve Kerr said after a 103-102 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. ''It's the right thing to do, so we're doing it.''

The Warriors are 2-4 since Durant went down with a knee injury on Feb. 28, and they have looked little like the seemingly invincible group in search of a third straight trip to the NBA Finals. Curry is shooting a ghastly 31 percent from 3-point range in March, and the schedule could have something to do with that.

The Warriors are at the tail end of a stretch of eight games in eight different cities in 13 days, something Kerr said he's never seen before. Golden State finished a five-game East Coast road trip with a win in Atlanta on Monday, flew all the way back home for a game against Boston on Wednesday and then got right back on a plane for a tough back-to-back in Minnesota and San Antonio.

''That can't be healthy for the human body,'' Green said. ''It's a very interesting thing that Steve's doing by sitting us. I can't say we don't need it. It's been a brutal stretch. ... It's a bit much. It's cool.''

Kerr said he consulted with the athletic training staff on which game would make the most sense to rest the Warriors who play the biggest minutes, and they all settled on San Antonio.

The Spurs will be short-handed as well. Kawhi Leonard will miss the game after being entered in the NBA's concussion protocol.

Kerr's decision likely won't sit well with fans, and maybe not the league. The topic of rest is a big one across the league, with fans clamoring to see star players and the league recently signing a $24 billion television contract that is built on showcasing the league's biggest stars.

The Warriors contingent certainly qualifies there, but Kerr said the team has to prioritize health over a single game, even if it does come against a team that is just 1+ games behind them for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference playoff race.

''I don't know if it's a statement,'' Green said. ''I think it's for us to be better down the stretch. For us to get a little rest and get back in a groove. You're more or less saying we don't care if we win or lose this game tomorrow. I don't think you lose a game to say screw the league. You do that for the better health of your team.''

Commissioner Adam Silver has said the league is very sensitive to players needing as much rest as possible to perform at their best and avoid injury. The league will start the regular season earlier next year so it can reduce the number of back-to-backs and stretches of four games in five nights that teams face.

But the Warriors are living in the moment right now, and this moment called for a breather.

''He's done it before,'' Curry said. ''It's obviously a different situation with San Antonio and whatnot, but we've had a tough schedule and he made that decision. Even if we tried to suit up tomorrow he's not going to play us, so it is what it is.''

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Leonard to miss showdown with Warriors
March 10, 2017

San Antonio Spurs All-Star forward Kawhi Leonard has entered the NBA's concussion protocol and will miss Saturday's showdown with the Golden State Warriors, the team announced Friday.

Leonard apparently suffered a concussion when struck in the head by an elbow from Oklahoma City guard Victor Oladipo during the third quarter of Thursday's game against the Thunder. Leonard departed the contest and didn't return.

The MVP candidate has been leading San Antonio's charge at overtaking Golden State for the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference. The Warriors hold a two-game lead over the Spurs entering Friday's game against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

San Antonio point guard Tony Parker (back) is questionable for the contest.

The Warriors will also be without an All-Star as forward Kevin Durant remains sidelined with a knee injury.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, MARCH 11

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UTA at OKC 03:00 PM

UTA +2.5

U 202.5

PHI at LAC 03:30 PM

PHI +13.5

NY at DET 05:00 PM

DET -6.5

NO at CHA 07:00 PM

O 201.5

CLE at ORL 07:00 PM

O 213.0

TOR at MIA 08:00 PM

TOR +5.5

MIN at MIL 08:00 PM

MIL -2.5

GS at SA 08:30 PM

GS +11.0

PHO at DAL 09:00 PM

DAL -6.0

O 215.0

ATL at MEM 09:00 PM

MEM -5.0

WAS at POR 10:00 PM

WAS +5.0

DEN at SAC 10:30 PM

SAC +5.5

O 215.5