Inside the Paint - Thursday
December 29, 2016
It’s been a chalky week in the NBA with favorites going 23-7 straight up and 16-14 against the spread since Sunday. Thursday’s card has six games on tap, which includes the nationally televised double-header on TNT.
Game of the Night – Boston at Cleveland (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
The Cavaliers (23-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) opened as six-point home favorites for this matchup and a few books have moved to seven as of Thursday morning. Cleveland has won seven of the previous eight meetings against Boston which includes a 128-122 decision on Nov. 3 as a 10 ½-point home favorite. The ‘over’ (207) easily cashed in that game but the ‘under’ was on a 6-1 run prior to that result.
Boston (19-13 SU, 18-13-1 ATS) is starting to come together and Tuesday’s 113-103 victory over Memphis was their second straight win and sixth in the last seven games. The Celtics have gone 16-9 since a 3-4 start and bettors should note that they didn’t have Al Horford or Jae Crowder playing in the aforementioned loss at Cleveland.
I’ve identified the Celtics as bullies before and until they improve on their record (7-9) versus teams with winning records, you can’t consider them a serious contender. Boston is listed as a 12/1 choice to win the Eastern Conference at Sportsbook.ag behind Cleveland (1/6) and Toronto (10/1). To put things in perspective, the Cavaliers are 13-5 vs. clubs above .500 while the Raptors are 10-7.
From a betting perspective, Boston has been a very good investment this season and its production on the road has been incredible. The Celtics are 12-7 SU and 13-5-1 ATS as visitors and what’s really impressive is that they’ve been in every game since they got healthy. After starting 1-3 on the road, Boston has won 11 of 15 and the four losses came by a combined 12 points with the worst decision coming at San Antonio (108-101).
The Cavaliers enter this game off a 106-90 loss at Detroit on Monday but LeBron James sat out and the team is now 0-3 without him in the lineup this season. As a home favorite, Cleveland has gone 15-2 SU and 9-7-1 ATS.
Along with the Cavs and Celtics, bettors have five other games to follow and below is my quick handicap.
Miami at Charlotte: I thought this line would be higher knowing the Hornets (-6) have been the better team this season and Miami’s playing with a short-handed roster. Charlotte has won four of its last five and is coming off a 120-101 win over Orlando on Wednesday as a 4 ½-point road favorite. Make a note that the Hornets have gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing on no rest this season. Also, Charlotte is 10-3 SU as a home favorite but it’s only managed to produce a 7-6 ATS mark. Miami point guard Goran Dragic (back) is listed as ‘questionable’ for Thursday.
Oklahoma City at Memphis: This will be the first meeting between the pair this season and the Grizzlies opened as short home favorites (-1 ½) over the Thunder and that says a lot especially since the team might not have point guard Mike Conley (toe) in the lineup. Oklahoma City has won and covered four straight and five of its last six yet they’re an underdog in this spot. Memphis has dropped two straight games and the defense looked very suspect (112, 113) in those setbacks. Tough schedule spot for the Grizzlies who are home for this game before heading out West for four straight contests on the road. This total opened 199 ½ and is down to 198 as of Thursday morning. The Thunder have been a great ‘under’ bet on the road (9-4) and Memphis has leaned to the low side (13-6) at FedEx Forum.
Philadelphia at Utah: The Jazz have won eight straight against the 76ers and have covered five of those games, which includes a 109-94 victory on Nov. 7 as a five-point road favorite. Utah has only been a double-digit favorite once this season and while it won, it never had a chance to cover (-13) in a 103-100 win over Dallas at home on Dec. 16. The 76ers are 1-9 SU this season when catching double digits and just 4-6 ATS. Center Joel Embiid is expected to miss and the club has gone 2-6 without him in the lineup this season.
Toronto at Phoenix: Tough game to handicap with both clubs playing on no rest and both coming off rough losses on the road. The Raptors fought back but wound up dropping a 121-111 decision at Golden State while Phoenix was run 119-98 at San Antonio. Toronto has gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in back-to-back spots while the Suns have gone 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in those situations. The Raptors (-8) are laying a heavy price but they’ve been a good investment (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) as road favorites this season. Meanwhile, the Suns have been a respectable 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS as home ‘dogs. The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between this pair and Thursday’s number (220) is the highest total on the board.
Dallas at L.A. Lakers: It’s hard to argue for either one of these clubs but be aware that the Lakers are just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS as home favorites this season. They allowed 114.4 PPG in those games and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 5-0. The sense of urgency could be high for Dallas knowing it has a likely loss on tap with a trip to Golden State scheduled for Friday. The Mavericks already defeated the Lakers this season at the Staples Center, earning a 109-97 win as 4 ½-point road underdogs on Nov. 8. TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.
December 29, 2016
It’s been a chalky week in the NBA with favorites going 23-7 straight up and 16-14 against the spread since Sunday. Thursday’s card has six games on tap, which includes the nationally televised double-header on TNT.
Game of the Night – Boston at Cleveland (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
The Cavaliers (23-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) opened as six-point home favorites for this matchup and a few books have moved to seven as of Thursday morning. Cleveland has won seven of the previous eight meetings against Boston which includes a 128-122 decision on Nov. 3 as a 10 ½-point home favorite. The ‘over’ (207) easily cashed in that game but the ‘under’ was on a 6-1 run prior to that result.
Boston (19-13 SU, 18-13-1 ATS) is starting to come together and Tuesday’s 113-103 victory over Memphis was their second straight win and sixth in the last seven games. The Celtics have gone 16-9 since a 3-4 start and bettors should note that they didn’t have Al Horford or Jae Crowder playing in the aforementioned loss at Cleveland.
I’ve identified the Celtics as bullies before and until they improve on their record (7-9) versus teams with winning records, you can’t consider them a serious contender. Boston is listed as a 12/1 choice to win the Eastern Conference at Sportsbook.ag behind Cleveland (1/6) and Toronto (10/1). To put things in perspective, the Cavaliers are 13-5 vs. clubs above .500 while the Raptors are 10-7.
From a betting perspective, Boston has been a very good investment this season and its production on the road has been incredible. The Celtics are 12-7 SU and 13-5-1 ATS as visitors and what’s really impressive is that they’ve been in every game since they got healthy. After starting 1-3 on the road, Boston has won 11 of 15 and the four losses came by a combined 12 points with the worst decision coming at San Antonio (108-101).
The Cavaliers enter this game off a 106-90 loss at Detroit on Monday but LeBron James sat out and the team is now 0-3 without him in the lineup this season. As a home favorite, Cleveland has gone 15-2 SU and 9-7-1 ATS.
Along with the Cavs and Celtics, bettors have five other games to follow and below is my quick handicap.
Miami at Charlotte: I thought this line would be higher knowing the Hornets (-6) have been the better team this season and Miami’s playing with a short-handed roster. Charlotte has won four of its last five and is coming off a 120-101 win over Orlando on Wednesday as a 4 ½-point road favorite. Make a note that the Hornets have gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing on no rest this season. Also, Charlotte is 10-3 SU as a home favorite but it’s only managed to produce a 7-6 ATS mark. Miami point guard Goran Dragic (back) is listed as ‘questionable’ for Thursday.
Oklahoma City at Memphis: This will be the first meeting between the pair this season and the Grizzlies opened as short home favorites (-1 ½) over the Thunder and that says a lot especially since the team might not have point guard Mike Conley (toe) in the lineup. Oklahoma City has won and covered four straight and five of its last six yet they’re an underdog in this spot. Memphis has dropped two straight games and the defense looked very suspect (112, 113) in those setbacks. Tough schedule spot for the Grizzlies who are home for this game before heading out West for four straight contests on the road. This total opened 199 ½ and is down to 198 as of Thursday morning. The Thunder have been a great ‘under’ bet on the road (9-4) and Memphis has leaned to the low side (13-6) at FedEx Forum.
Philadelphia at Utah: The Jazz have won eight straight against the 76ers and have covered five of those games, which includes a 109-94 victory on Nov. 7 as a five-point road favorite. Utah has only been a double-digit favorite once this season and while it won, it never had a chance to cover (-13) in a 103-100 win over Dallas at home on Dec. 16. The 76ers are 1-9 SU this season when catching double digits and just 4-6 ATS. Center Joel Embiid is expected to miss and the club has gone 2-6 without him in the lineup this season.
Toronto at Phoenix: Tough game to handicap with both clubs playing on no rest and both coming off rough losses on the road. The Raptors fought back but wound up dropping a 121-111 decision at Golden State while Phoenix was run 119-98 at San Antonio. Toronto has gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in back-to-back spots while the Suns have gone 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in those situations. The Raptors (-8) are laying a heavy price but they’ve been a good investment (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) as road favorites this season. Meanwhile, the Suns have been a respectable 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS as home ‘dogs. The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between this pair and Thursday’s number (220) is the highest total on the board.
Dallas at L.A. Lakers: It’s hard to argue for either one of these clubs but be aware that the Lakers are just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS as home favorites this season. They allowed 114.4 PPG in those games and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 5-0. The sense of urgency could be high for Dallas knowing it has a likely loss on tap with a trip to Golden State scheduled for Friday. The Mavericks already defeated the Lakers this season at the Staples Center, earning a 109-97 win as 4 ½-point road underdogs on Nov. 8. TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.
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