The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
January 17, 2017


The MLK Day basketball board saw eight of nine favorites win outright, including the Warriors routing the Cavaliers in an NBA Finals rematch, 126-91. Golden State easily cashed as nine-point favorites, while snapping a four-game skid to Cleveland that stretched back to Game 5 of the NBA Finals last June.

The only underdog to win outright was Philadelphia, who rallied past Milwaukee, 113-104 as 8 ½-point ‘dogs to improve to 7-1 ATS the last eight games. The Pelicans, Knicks, and Suns all covered in losses, while the Clippers, Wizards, Nuggets, and Celtics all won by double-digits in the home favorite role.

Game of the Night – Nuggets at Lakers (-1 ½, 228) – 10:35 PM EST

On a night with only five contests and four involving total mismatches, this matchup at Staples Center looks to be the most competitive, at least on paper. Denver (16-23 SU, 19-20 ATS) heads to Los Angeles with no rest following Monday’s 125-112 victory over Orlando as 5 ½-point home favorites. The Nuggets dominated in the paint as Nikola Jokic and Kenneth Faried combined to score 50 points, while Denver picked up its second consecutive win.

The Lakers (15-30 SU, 19-25-1 ATS) have dropped four consecutive games after Sunday’s 102-97 setback to the Pistons as two-point underdogs. Los Angeles squandered an early double-digit lead as the Lakers’ starters put up only 40 points. The offense has faltered recently by scoring 97 points or less in each of the past four losses, while the UNDER has hit in four of the last five games. The Lakers own a 3-5 ATS record as a favorite this season, as Luke Walton’s team has won and covered in each of its past two favorite opportunities against the Heat and Magic.

The Nuggets and Lakers have not hooked up this season as Denver captured three of four matchups last season from Los Angeles. Denver has owned Los Angeles at Staples Center over the last few seasons by winning and covering six straight matchups in southern California since January 2013. However, the Nuggets own a dreadful 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record with no rest this season, while Denver is riding a seven-game streak to the OVER.

Raptor Domination

Toronto has won six consecutive matchups with Brooklyn since January 2016, including a pair of home victories over the last month. The Raptors pulled away from the Nets on Friday, 132-113 as Toronto outscored Brooklyn in the fourth quarter, 42-24 to cash as 15 ½-point favorites. Toronto begins a three-game road swing at Barclays Center as the Raps are coming off a three-game winning streak following Sunday’s triumph over New York.

It’s been a rough stretch for Brooklyn, who has lost 10 consecutive contests and 15 of the past 16 games. The Nets allowed a season-high 132 points to the Raptors on Friday, but then gave up a new season-high in points two nights later in Sunday’s 137-112 home blowout to the Rockets. Brooklyn may own one of the worst defenses ever as this team has given up at least 100 points in 16 straight games, but the UNDER is 6-4 in the past 10 games.

Heat Homecoming

Miami is back at home following a 1-5 road swing as things don’t get easier tonight with a visit from Houston. The Heat beat Sacramento on January 4, but lost the final four games, including three defeats by double-digits. Over the last month, Miami has dropped 13 of the past 15 contests, as the Heat look to improve on a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS record the last six games at American Airlines Arena.

The Rockets rebounded from a brief two-game skid by pounding the Nets on Sunday by 25 points, as Houston knocked down 21 three-pointers. Since the start of December, Houston has won nine of its past 11 games away from Toyota Center, while covering in eight of those victories. The Rockets have lost six of the last seven visits to Miami, including a 109-89 setback in November 2015 as the Heat outscored Houston in the second half, 65-36.

Revenge of the Bulls

The last time Dallas and Chicago hooked up at American Airlines Center on December 3, the Mavericks routed the Bulls, 107-82 as four-point home underdogs. Wesley Matthews drilled seven three-pointers as Dallas led from start to finish, while the Bulls played with no rest following a home underdog victory over the Cavaliers the night before. Both teams are rested heading into tonight’s matchup at the United Center as each squad is riding a two-game winning streak.

Chicago is fresh off victories over New Orleans and Memphis, as the Bulls held off the Grizzlies as 8 ½-point road underdogs, 108-104 on Sunday night. The Bulls have won five of the last seven games at the United Center, but Chicago owns a 2-4 home record against Western Conference foes. The Mavericks pulled away from the Timberwolves on Sunday, 98-87, while Dallas has won four of its past seven road games since a 1-13 start on the highway.

Alamo Bounce Back

The Spurs have lost consecutive games only once this season, coming off Saturday’s 108-105 setback to the Suns in Mexico as 12 ½-point favorites. San Antonio owns a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS record off a defeat as the Spurs return home to entertain the Timberwolves tonight. The Spurs have won 10 of the past 11 games against Minnesota since the start of the 2014-15 season, including five straight victories over the Wolves at the AT&T Center.

Minnesota had its three-game winning streak snapped in Sunday’s loss at Dallas, as the Wolves look to snap a five-game skid away from the Target Center. The Wolves have covered once in the last five road losses, as the last away victory for Minnesota came in Atlanta on December 21. In spite of the road woes lately, the Wolves have put together a 4-1 ATS record in its last five games, while trying to avenge a 105-91 home setback to the Spurs in December.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, JANUARY 17

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at BK 07:30 PM

TOR -11.5

U 227.0

HOU at MIA 07:30 PM

MIA +8.5

U 221.5

DAL at CHI 08:00 PM

CHI -5.5

O 197.0

MIN at SA 08:30 PM

MIN +12.0

O 200.5

DEN at LAL 10:30 PM

DEN -1.0

O 230.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Random NFL coaches’ records on replay challenges:

— Jack Del Rio, Jax/Oak— 77 of 103, 74.8%

— Mike Mularkey, Buff/Jax/Tenn— 29 of 39, 74.4%

— Jay Gruden, Wash— 17 of 23, 73.9%

— John Fox, Car/Den/Chi— 125 of 170, 73.5%

— Bill O’Brien, Hst— 19 of 26, 73.1%

— Mike Zimmer, Minn— 15 of 21, 71.4%

No current NFL head coach has less than a 60% success rate in replay challenges.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) Alex Rodriguez is going to have his own TV show on CNBC, dealing with athletes who have had financial problems in their post-playing days. The show will match athletes with “money-savvy mentors” who will advise the athletes on way to upgrade their financial situations.

12) One growing trend in college basketball; more and more teams are playing only 7-8 guys in a game, some only six. Would expect to see a rule change next year, where it’ll take six fouls to foul out, rather than five fouls.

11) Creighton guard Mo Watson tore his ACL Monday at Xavier, his college career is over. Very sad for the young man and his team; he is the Bluejays’ best player.

10) This is tremendous; 25 moving companies based in San Diego banded together and refuse to help the Chargers move north to Los Angeles.

Chargers kept Ken Whisenhunt as OC, a good move.

9) ESPN’s Sean McDonough did his first basketball telecast of the season Monday night in Chapel Hill; he seemed positively giddy to be working with Jay Bilas, after working with Jon Gruden on Monday Night Football all season. Draw your own conclusions.

8) Oklahoma City Thunder has nine games left in January; eight of them are on the road. Thunder will fly over 14,000 miles in January alone.

7) Happy birthday to the great Betty White, who turned 95 on Tuesday.

Also congrats to Roy Williams on his 800th win Monday night.

6) Phillies signed OF Michael Saunders to a 1-year deal; the oft-injured Saunders is 30, has played 130+ games in only three seasons, but he did hit 24 HR’s for Toronto LY.

5) Two guys in Las Vegas pooled $300 and money-lined the Packers in Week 12, and let it ride ever since. Their $300 investment now is worth $28,213.60 and if Green Bay wins on Sunday, it’ll be worth $76,176.70.

These guys tried the same thing LY (with two other friends) but the Cowboys lost the first week of the wager. I’m guessing the two friends who didn’t re-up this year are kicking themselves.

One of the two guys played basketball for Seth Greenberg at Long Beach State and later was an assistant coach for Greenberg, I think at South Florida.

4) Quinnipiac is 4-4 in the MAAC, an ordinary team, but they’ve covered their last seven MAAC games, making them a great team for those who wager on the Bobcats.

3) Chris Paul tore ligaments in his thumb Monday night, is out 6-8 weeks.

2) Houston Texans fired their offensive coordinator two days after their loss in Foxboro; they said “they mutually parted ways” which means they paid off his contract and told him to take a hike.

1— Interesting discussion on the Australian Open late Monday night, on how tennis players on the rise can actually play too much, if they advance further than expected in tournaments.

Marginal players play in more events, but if they go deep into the tournaments, it reduces their down time between events, increasing their risk of injury and making conditioning a lot more important. As a player improves, he/she actually reduce the number of events they play in.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, January 18

Portland split its last ten games, covered three of last four on road; they’re 5-11 as road underdogs. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Hornets lost seven of last eight games; they’re 6-1 in last seven games as a home favorite. Three of their last four games stayed under the total. Portland won seven of last nine games with Charlotte (6-3 vs spread); Trailblazers lost three of last five visits here (2-3 vs spread). Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Memphis is 3-4 in its last seven games, 7-7 vs spread as a road underdog. Grizzlies are 5-7 vs spread in last 12 road games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Wizards won five of last six games, are 11-1 vs spread in last 12 home games. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 home games. Home side won eight of last ten Memphis-Washington games; Grizzlies lost three of last four visits here (1-3 vs spread, over 3-1).

Raptors won its last four games, is 4-6 vs spread as a road favorite. Last six Toronto games went over the total. 76ers won four of last five games, covered seven of last eight; they’re 12-6 as home underdogs. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Toronto won its last ten games with the 76ers, covered last seven; Raptors won last five visits to Philly, covered last four. Six of last seven series games went over total.

New York lost 11 of last 13 games, 8-4 vs spread in last 12 games as a road underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under. Celtics won seven of last eight games, are 9-7 as home favorites; six of their last eight home games went over the total. Knicks lost eight of last nine games with Boston, losing last four visits to Beantown (1-3 vs spread). Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Magic lost six of last seven games, is 3-5 in last eight games as a road underdog. Last three Orlando games went over. Pelicans won four of last five home games, are 5-9 as home faves (star Davis is banged up, check status). Last four NO games stayed under. Orlando won its last four games with New Orleans (3-1 vs spread); Magic lost three of last five visits to Bourbon Street. Last six series games stayed under the total.

Atlanta won nine of last ten games, covered eight of last ten on road. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Pistons lost three of last four games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight home games. Three of last four Detroit games stayed under. Hawks won four of last five games with Detroit; six of last seven series games went over total. Atlanta won three of last four visits to Motor City, winning last two by 17-4 points.

Bucks lost four of last six games, are 5-9 as road underdogs. Five of their last six games went over total. Houston lost three of last four games; they’re 1-4 in last five games as a home favorite. Five of their last six games went over the total. Rockets won five of last six games with Milwaukee; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Bucks lost last three visits to Houston, by 10-6-4 points.

Pacers won six of last seven games, but lost four of last five games away from home. Seven of their last eight games went over total. Sacramento lost five of its last six games, six of last seven at home; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Kings won last four games with Indiana; they covered four of last five series games. Pacers lost by 1-11 points in last two visits here. Last three series games stayed under total.

Warriors won last four games with Oklahoma City, winning by 26 in first reunion with Durant and his old team on Nov 3. Thunder lost last four visits to Oakland (0-4 vs spread). Under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Thunder won four of last six games overall, but lost six of last eight on road; they’re 2-4 in last six games as a road dog. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Golden State won four in row, eight of last nine games; they’re 10-12 as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, January 18

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
TORONTO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. WASHINGTON
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Memphis is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis

7:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Charlotte is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Charlotte is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Portland

7:30 PM
NEW YORK vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
New York is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. NEW ORLEANS
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Orlando

8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. DETROIT
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Atlanta

8:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. HOUSTON
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home

10:30 PM
INDIANA vs. SACRAMENTO
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Sacramento is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

10:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Golden State
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Golden State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, January 18

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PORTLAND (18 - 25) at CHARLOTTE (20 - 21) - 1/18/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 2-2 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (25 - 18) at WASHINGTON (21 - 19) - 1/18/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
MEMPHIS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (28 - 13) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 26) - 1/18/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
TORONTO is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
TORONTO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 81-110 ATS (-40.0 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 114-155 ATS (-56.5 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (18 - 24) at BOSTON (26 - 15) - 1/18/2017, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (17 - 26) at NEW ORLEANS (16 - 26) - 1/18/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 4-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (24 - 17) at DETROIT (19 - 24) - 1/18/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-3 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (20 - 20) at HOUSTON (32 - 12) - 1/18/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 245-298 ATS (-82.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
HOUSTON is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 312-252 ATS (+34.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (21 - 19) at SACRAMENTO (16 - 24) - 1/18/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
INDIANA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games this season.
INDIANA is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
SACRAMENTO is 41-58 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 28-45 ATS (-21.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 4-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (25 - 18) at GOLDEN STATE (35 - 6) - 1/18/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-64 ATS (-24.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 133-109 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 123-100 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 73-53 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 74-52 ATS (+16.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 73-54 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 64-47 ATS (+12.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 110-80 ATS (+22.0 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 167-121 ATS (+33.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
January 18, 2017

The underdogs profited on Tuesday night in the NBA by going 3-2 ATS as the Heat and Mavericks each won outright as a ‘dog. The Raptors sent the Nets to their 11th straight loss, while the Nuggets held off the Lakers, 127-121. The only underdog to cash in a loss was Minnesota, who fell short in a 122-114 setback at San Antonio as 12-point ‘dogs. The OVER hit in three of five games, including the Nuggets/Lakers matchup which had a total of 230.

Game of the Night – Thunder at Warriors (-13, 228) – 10:35 PM EST – ESPN

Golden State (35-6, 17-23-1 ATS) picked up a bit of revenge on Monday in a 126-91 blowout of Cleveland in an NBA Finals rematch. The Warriors scored 78 first half points, while Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined to hit 10 three-pointers to give Golden State its fourth consecutive victory. Steve Kerr’s squad wraps up a four-game homestand as the Warriors have covered two straight games since a 1-8 ATS slump that began on December 23.

Oklahoma City (25-18 SU, 23-19-1 ATS) continues a six-game road swing as the Thunder looks to rebound from a 120-98 setback to the Clippers on Monday as 8 ½-point underdogs. Russell Westbrook failed to post a triple-double as he finished with 24 points, five rebounds, and four assists, while OKC lost its fifth straight game in the role of a road underdog (1-4 ATS). The Thunder have bounced back after a defeat in which they were held below 100 points by posting a 6-2 SU and 4-3-1 ATS record.

Of course the top storyline is Kevin Durant facing his former team as the ex-Thunder standout crossed over to the Warriors in the offseason. Golden State erased a 3-1 deficit to Oklahoma City in last season’s Western Conference Finals, as the Warriors continued their recent ownership of the Thunder in a 122-96 blowout on November 3 at Oracle Arena. However, OKC played with no rest in that loss as 12-point underdogs, as Durant torched his former mates for 39 points, while the Warriors blew the game open in the second quarter by outscoring the Thunder, 37-11.

Capital Punishment

The Wizards suddenly have the best home-court advantage in the league, at least recently. Washington has won 12 consecutive games at the Verizon Center, while covering 11 times in this span following Monday’s 120-101 rout of Portland as 3 ½-point favorites. The Wizards will be tested tonight as the Grizzlies invade the Nation’s Capital, as Memphis will try to bounce back from Sunday’s home loss to Chicago.

Earlier this season, the Grizzlies held off the Wizards in overtime at home, 112-103, but Washington has captured three of the past four matchups in D.C. since 2013. Memphis has lost five of its past eight games away from FedEx Forum, but has earned solid road victories as heavy underdogs at Golden State and Houston this month.

No Rest Needed

The Rockets were silenced in last night’s shocking 109-103 defeat to the struggling Heat as Houston knocked down only 9-of-39 attempts from three-point range. Houston returns to the Toyota Center tonight to host Milwaukee as the Rockets try to improve on a solid 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS record on the second of a back-to-back set. However, Houston has covered just once in the last five games, including three consecutive non-covers at home.

The Bucks are back in Texas after pulling out their best win of the season at San Antonio on January 10 as 10-point underdogs, 109-107. However, Milwaukee is looking to snap a two-game skid, including a surprising 113-104 home setback to Philadelphia on Monday as 8 ½-point favorites. Milwaukee’s defense hasn’t been sharp of late by allowing at least 100 points in seven straight contests, while riding a four-game streak to the OVER.

Lacking Pace

Indiana is rolling at home this season by posting a solid 16-5 record at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The road has been a different story for Nate McMillan’s squad by losing 13 of 18 contests on the highway, including seven of the last nine away from Indianapolis. The Pacers begin a three-game road swing tonight in Sacramento against a Kings’ club closing out a seven-game homestand. Sacramento has dropped five of six games on this homestand, but the Kings have owned the Pacers recently by winning four straight meetings.

Bee Sting

The Hornets had expectations to advance past the first round of the playoffs this season after losing in seven games to the Heat last season. However, Charlotte has stumbled recently to fall below the .500 mark at 20-21 by losing seven of the past eight games. The Hornets welcome in the Blazers tonight as Charlotte starts an important five-game homestand. Portland attempts to snap a mini two-game skid as the Blazers allowed 115 and 120 points in its past two losses, while losing in two of its previous three trips to Charlotte.

Motor City Struggles

The Pistons finished off their five-game Western Conference road swing with a victory over the Lakers, but Detroit has dropped 11 of its past 16 games as it welcomes Atlanta to the Palace of Auburn Hills. Playing at home hasn’t been easy for the Pistons, as Stan Van Gundy’s team has compiled a 2-6 SU/ATS in the last eight at the Palace, which includes a victory over the Cavaliers without LeBron James.

The Hawks continue to remain hot after Monday’s one-point triumph at New York, as Atlanta has won nine of its past 10 games overall. Atlanta has been true road warriors by winning five consecutive contests away from Philips Arena, while capturing a pair of victories at the Palace last season.

Head-to-Head Trends

-- The Raptors have won 14 straight meetings with the 76ers since the 2013-14 season, while covering 11 times in this span. Toronto visits Philadelphia tonight as the Raptors are riding a seven-game winning streak at Wells Fargo Center.

-- Boston owns an 8-1 record in the past nine matchups with New York, including a 2-0 mark this season. The Celtics host the Knicks this evening as Boston has scored 115 and 119 points in the first two matchups this season, while the last three meetings at TD Garden have finished UNDER the total.

-- Orlando has captured the last four meetings with New Orleans, as the two squads hook up in the Big Easy tonight. The Magic topped the Pelicans at home in November, 89-82, the fifth consecutive time in this series the two teams have gone UNDER the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot and Cold Teams
January 17, 2017

The NBA season has reached the halfway point for many teams as several key trends have materialized to keep an eye on moving forward. There aren’t many surprises as far as the best teams against the spread this season, but one squad being the worst covering numbers may be a bit of a shocker.

Best ATS Teams

Houston: 27-16 ATS

The Rockets return home on Wednesday for a pair of games against the Bucks and Warriors as Houston is tied atop the Southwest division with San Antonio. Houston has done a majority of its damage on the road this season by posting a terrific 16-7 SU and 17-6 ATS mark away from Toyota Center, including 12 wins in their past 15 road contests.

However, Mike D’Antoni’s team is rolling at home of late by going 12-2 SU in their last 14 games at Toyota Center, although the Rockets have failed to cover in their last three at home.

Toronto: 25-14-1 ATS

The Raptors have split their success at home (13-7-1 ATS) and on the road (12-7 ATS), as 18 of their 27 wins this season have come against teams currently at .500 or below. Toronto continues a three-game road trip at Philadelphia on Wednesday, playing in the midst of six consecutive contests against under .500 teams, as the trip wraps up on Friday in Charlotte.

Dwane Casey’s squad started the season with a strong 11-3 road record, but have fallen back to 1-4 SU/ATS the past five games away from the Air Canada Center.

Worst ATS Teams

Cleveland: 17-21-2 ATS

Yep, the defending champions take this dubious honor of owning the worst record against the number at the halfway point. Cleveland finished a six-game road swing with a 126-91 beatdown at Golden State in a rematch of last June’s NBA Finals, suffering its largest defeat of the season. The Cavaliers are currently riding a 1-7 ATS run, while scoring less than 92 points in three of their past four contests.

After facing the Suns on Thursday, the Cavaliers welcome the Spurs on Saturday night, as Cleveland plays five of the next six games at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is rolling at home lately by winning nine of the past 10 at the Q, while compiling a 6-3-1 ATS mark in this stretch.

Indiana: 17-23 ATS

The Pacers sit in second place of the Central division behind Cleveland, but the home/road splits for Indiana have been daunting. At home, the Pacers own a solid 16-5 mark, while covering 12 times. However, Indiana has slumped to a 5-14 SU/ATS record away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse, while losing seven of the past nine games on the highway.

Indiana heads back on the dreaded road for four of the next five games, starting Wednesday night in Sacramento. The Pacers head to Los Angeles to face the Lakers on Friday, followed by a trip to Utah on Saturday. One thing to note for Saturday, Indiana owns a horrible 1-6 SU/ATS record with no rest.

HOT STREAKS

Team Trend (SU/ATS)

Atlanta Hawks 9-1, 8-2 on road

Boston Celtics 13-3, 11-4-1

Cleveland Cavaliers 9-1, 6-3-1 at home

Golden State Warriors 12-1, 7-6 at home

Houston Rockets 12-2, 7-7 at home

Los Angeles Clippers 7-0, 6-1

Philadelphia 76ers 6-2, 7-1

San Antonio Spurs 10-1, 9-2 at home

Utah Jazz 11-0, 8-3 as road favorite

Washington Wizards 12-0 SU, 11-1 at home


COLD STREAKS

Team Trend (SU/ATS)

Brooklyn Nets 0-10, 2-8

Charlotte Hornets 1-7, 3-4

Chicago Bulls 2-8, 3-7 on road

Detroit Pistons 2-6, 2-6 at home

Indiana Pacers 2-7, 2-7 on road

Miami Heat 1-5, 2-4 at home

Minnesota Timberwolves 0-5, 1-4 on road

New York Knicks 1-9, 4-6 on road

Phoenix Suns 1-6, 2-5 on road

Portland Trail Blazers 2-10, 4-8 on road

Sacramento Kings 1-6, 2-5 at home

Toronto Raptors 1-4, 1-4 on road

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 18

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MEM at WAS 07:00 PM

WAS -2.0

O 207.0

POR at CHA 07:00 PM

CHA -5.0

O 217.0

TOR at PHI 07:00 PM

PHI +6.5

O 215.0

NY at BOS 07:30 PM

BOS -9.5

O 221.0

MIL at HOU 08:00 PM

MIL +7.0

O 226.0

ATL at DET 08:00 PM

ATL -2.0

O 201.5

ORL at NO 08:00 PM

NO -5.5

U 210.0

OKC at GS 10:30 PM

GS -13.5

U 230.5

IND at SAC 10:30 PM

SAC -1.5

U 214.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— South Carolina 57, Florida 53— Gators were 0-17 behind the arc.

— Upsets of the Night: Oklahoma (+17) 89, West Virginia 87 OT……and Fordham (+11.5) 69, VCU 67.

— Auburn 78, LSU 74— Bruce Pearl gets his 500th coaching win.

— Pacers 106, Kings 100— Sacramento’s Rudy Gay tore his achilles tendon.

— Florida State 83, Notre Dame 80— First ACC loss for the Irish.

— Washington 85, Colorado 83 OT— Fun game to watch, but some of the worst defense I’ve ever seen played. Seriously, just terrible defense by both teams. Buffs led by 17 in second half.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Did you know that Anheuser-Busch has the option to buy the first ad of the Super Bowl, and they’ve declined two of the past three years? Their research shows them that commercials later in the game get more attention that those early on. By doing that, they’re gambling the game isn’t a blowout and people stop paying attention.

Advertising is also a big money game. Over the last 35 Super Bowls, Anheuser Busch has spent over $520M in advertising.

12) Three Oregon football players went to the hospital after off-season workouts, and so the new strength coach of the Ducks has been suspended for a month, replaced by the old strength coach, who must be laughing up his sleeve.

The new strength coach came from South Florida with coach Willie Taggart; supposedly he does not have the college degree a person in his position usually has.

Signing Day is 13 days away; stuff like that can hurt your recruiting.

11) Back in 1960, the first year of the AFL, the Los Angeles Chargers had a damn good coaching staff. Sid Gillman was head coach; two of his assistants were Al Davis and Chuck Noll. Not bad.

10) Tony Romo has a steel rod in the collarbone that has been broken three times.

I mention this because the last couple of times I flew, the security person asked me if I had any steel rods in my body. Maybe I look like an NFL quarterback or maybe I just look old, you make the call but my preference is to think I look like a former signal caller.

9) Tennis player Nick Kyrgios was trailing 6-5 in the third set late Tuesday night in Australia when he actually hit a return shot between his legs, like it was nothing. Seriously, I’d be in traction if I tried to do what he did, even without any steel rods in my body.

I don’t know much about tennis, but this guy looks like a little like Giancarlo Stanton, resembles a Greek Adonis, but John McEnroe ripped Kyrgios after he lost his second round match, saying “…..he has about the #200 mental game.” Alrighty then.

8) Congrats to Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Pudge Rodriguez on getting into the Hall of Fame. Will be lot of people coming down from Montreal to Cooperstown in July, I’m pretty sure.

One other HOF note: if David Ortiz gets put in the Hall of Fame someday and that seems likely, then they need to put Edgar Martinez in also. His career on-base %age was .418. Four-Freakin’-eighteen.

Just because he played on the west coast shouldn’t mean he gets excluded.

7) Since 2010, your major league leader in home runs? Jose Bautista, with 249.

6) If I ever get involved in coaching basketball again, I’d be a strong advocate for spending eight minutes of EVERY practice with kids practicing all different kinds of layups. It really helps.

This is something from the Princeton school of coaching; I’m no fan of the Princeton offense itself, but if you’re lucky enough to have players who get the ball close to the basket, it is a big help to have guys who can finish plays. Watch Belmont in the OVC; they’re crafty around the basket and it helps them neutralize more athletic opponents.

I see it all season watching college hoop for 5-6 hours a night; some teams have kids who are uncomfortable when they have the ball around the basket, unless they can dunk it.

5) Surprising fact: Atlanta Falcons have four rookie starters on defense.

4) Over last two years, Clippers are 5-12 in games that Chris Paul missed; he is now out 6-8 weeks with a torn ligament in his thumb.

3) Baylor’s Johnathan Motley had 32 points, 20 rebounds against Texas Monday night; it is really hard to go 30-20 in a basketball game, you have to be totally dominant. Baylor got zero votes in the preseason college hoop poll, but now they’re a top 10 team.

2) Washington Huskies QB Jake Browning had shoulder surgery this week; they did a nice job of hiding his injury thru the season.

1— The following numbers are presented as facts, not as any sort of political statement, but they are facts, and they are interesting.

President Obama commuted 1,385 prison sentences in his eight years in office, 504 of which were life sentences. He also pardoned 212 people. This is more than the last 12 presidents did combined.

I don’t have an opinion on these stats, other than when you do something more than the 12 people who had your job before you (combined), it is an interesting statistic.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, January 19

Cavaliers won last four games with Phoenix but Suns covered six of last eight series games. Phoenix lost by 10-22 points in last two visits here. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games. Suns lost three of last four games, covered five of last six; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as a road underdog- their last four games went over total. Cleveland lost three of last four games (under 3-1); they’re 8-4-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite.

Miami won nine of last ten games with Dallas, covered four of last five; Mavericks lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Last four series games stayed under. Dallas won its last three games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a road underdog. Heat lost four of last five games, is 2-5 in last seven home games, 3-4 vs spread as a home favorite. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Washington won nine of its last ten games with the Knicks (7-2-1 vs spread); Wizards won last five visits to Manhattan, with 3 of 5 wins by 3 or less points. Three of last four series games went over total. Washington won six of its last seven games, but they lost four of last five road games. Knicks lost five of last seven games but covered three of last four; they’re 1-5 in last six home games. Three of their last four home games stayed under.

Spurs won nine of last ten games with Denver (7-3 vs spread); Nuggets lost last four visits to Alamo (2-2 vs spread). Six of last eight series games went over total. Denver won/covered its last three games; they’re 9-6 as road underdogs. Last eight Nugget games went over the total. Spurs won nine of last 12 games, are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite. Over is 9-2 in San Antonio’s last 11 games.

Clippers are 7-12 without Paul the last two years. Clippers won nine of last ten games with Minnesota but are 3-3-1 in last seven series games; Timberwolves lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Minnesota lost six of last nine games; they’re 7-7 as a road underdog. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Clippers won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread) but are missing Griffin/Paul now. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.




NBA

Thursday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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7:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. CLEVELAND
Phoenix is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Phoenix's last 23 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix

7:30 PM
DALLAS vs. MIAMI
Dallas is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Dallas
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Washington's last 20 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
New York is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. SAN ANTONIO
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Denver's last 22 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
San Antonio is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

10:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. LA CLIPPERS
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, January 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (13 - 28) at CLEVELAND (29 - 11) - 1/19/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games in January games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (14 - 27) at MIAMI (12 - 30) - 1/19/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 364-301 ATS (+32.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 474-395 ATS (+39.5 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 311-259 ATS (+26.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
MIAMI is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (22 - 19) at NEW YORK (19 - 24) - 1/19/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (17 - 23) at SAN ANTONIO (32 - 9) - 1/19/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 73-59 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 70-52 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 498-413 ATS (+43.7 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 300-240 ATS (+36.0 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 90-69 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 41-25 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (14 - 28) at LA CLIPPERS (29 - 14) - 1/19/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 199-244 ATS (-69.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 93-62 ATS (+24.8 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 86-118 ATS (-43.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, January 19


Minnesota @ LA Clippers

Game 709-710
January 19, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
118.292
LA Clippers
126.896
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 8 1/2
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 1 1/2
205
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-1 1/2); Under

Denver @ San Antonio

Game 707-708
January 19, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
115.446
San Antonio
132.339
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 17
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 12
222
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-12); Under

Washington @ New York

Game 705-706
January 19, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
127.037
New York
117.167
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 10
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 2
219
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-2); Under

Dallas @ Miami

Game 703-704
January 19, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
118.610
Miami
115.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
197
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+2 1/2); Over

Phoenix @ Cleveland

Game 701-702
January 19, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
117.743
Cleveland
119.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 13
218
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+13); Over

[StarDust Bum]

How to get rich betting NBA back-to-back scenarios

The youthful Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the NBA's top teams in back-to-back situations at 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU).

Ask yourself a simple question before we dive into this week’s column: Have you come across a single NBA analyst, former player, friend or even twitter troll who has predicted anything but a Golden State-Cleveland showdown in this season’s NBA Finals?

While I’m virtually certain that Planet Earth contains at least one human being who believes that, perhaps, the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs or Houston Rockets will prevent us from the championship trilogy we appear destined to enjoy, the fact remains that the Warriors and Cavaliers boast such ridiculously impressive resumes that very few would be willing to bet against either team making it back to the NBA Finals.

Entering Wednesday night’s slate of action, Golden State and Cleveland ranked in the top five in the NBA in scoring, three-point percentage and a bevy of other statistical categories. But interestingly enough, there is one wagering category in which both the top seed in the Western Conference and the top seed in the Eastern Conference rank in the bottom five of the Association.

Boys and girls, if you plan to bet against the Warriors or Cavaliers, do it when either team is on the second half of a back-to-back stretch.

As of the close of business on Tuesday, January 16, LeBron James and the Cavaliers are just 2-6 against the spread this season when playing the second half of a back-to-back. As for Kevin Durant and the Warriors, Golden State is an abysmal 1-6 ATS in the second half of a back-to-back situation this season. Only Indiana (1-6 ATS) comes close to matching Golden State’s ATS futility as it pertains to this particular scenario.

A litany of reasons exist as to why certain teams struggle while others thrive when playing the second half of a back-to-back. Resting starters or established veterans, long travel, late nights and a lack of sleep are just a few of the possible reasons when it comes to the “why.” But now that we’re officially halfway through the 2016-2017 NBA season, it’s time to take a good, long look as to which teams excel and which clubs falter in this situation so we can better position ourselves to gain a potential edge over the bookmakers.

Entering Wednesday night, there were exactly 248 instances in which an NBA team played the second half of a back-to-back scenario this season:

Overall record straight-up: 101-147 (.407)
Overall record against the spread: 116-128-4 (.475)

At first glance, there really isn’t much to get excited about here. If we had bet against every single team every time they were playing in the second half of a back-to-back, we would barely have broken even up until this point.

But what if we were betting ON the top five clubs and AGAINST the bottom five franchises?

Top five teams in second half of a back-to-back: 33-10 ATS (.767)
Bottom five teams in second half of a back-to-back: 8-30 ATS (.210)

Granted, there was no way to know at the beginning of the season which teams would rank in the top five and which squads would rank in the bottom five at the midway point of the 2016-2017 NBA campaign. However, this should serve as useful information moving forward, as betting ON the top five and AGAINST the bottom five in the second half of a back-to-back has produced a combined record of 63-18 ATS this season (.777).

NBA teams in the second half of a back-to-back this season

*All records updated as of Wednesday, January 18.

Miami Heat: 7-1 ATS (2-6 SU)

Minnesota Timberwolves: 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU)

San Antonio Spurs: 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU)

Houston Rockets: 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU)

Memphis Grizzlies: 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU)

Atlanta Hawks: 6-3 ATS (6-3 SU)

Orlando Magic: 6-3 ATS (3-6 SU)

Toronto Raptors: 4-2-1 ATS (3-4 SU)

Los Angeles Clippers: 5-3 ATS (5-3 SU)

Phoenix Suns: 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU)

Boston Celtics: 5-4 ATS (6-3 SU)

Chicago Bulls: 5-5 ATS (4-6 SU)

New York Knicks: 4-5 ATS (1-8 SU)

Utah Jazz: 4-5-1 ATS (6-4 SU)

Sacramento Kings: 3-4-1 ATS (2-6 SU)

Los Angeles Lakers: 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU)

Brooklyn Nets: 2-3-1 ATS (0-6 SU)

Charlotte Hornets: 3-5 ATS (3-5 SU)

Denver Nuggets: 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU)

Oklahoma City Thunder: 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU)

Philadelphia 76ers: 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU)

Washington Wizards: 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU)

Portland Trail Blazers: 3-6 ATS (3-6 SU)

New Orleans Pelicans: 3-6 ATS (3-6 SU)

Dallas Mavericks: 2-5 ATS (0-7 SU)

Cleveland Cavaliers: 2-6 ATS (3-5 SU)

Detroit Pistons: 2-6 ATS (2-6 SU)

Milwaukee Bucks: 2-6 ATS (2-6 SU)

Golden State Warriors: 1-6 ATS (6-1 SU)

Indiana Pacers: 1-6 ATS (1-6 SU)


Here’s your rundown of back-to-back scenarios to monitor as we head into the weekend:

THURSDAY

Wizards at Knicks (8:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

FRIDAY

None

SATURDAY

Trail Blazers at Celtics (5:00pm ET): Portland is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Blazers are 3-6 ATS.

Nets at Hornets (7:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

76ers at Hawks (7:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Bucks at Heat (7:30pm ET): Milwaukee is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Bucks are just 2-6 ATS.

Rockets at Grizzlies (8:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Pacers at Jazz (9:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Kings at Bulls (9:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

SUNDAY

Suns at Raptors (6:00pm ET): Phoenix is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Suns are 4-3 ATS.

Nuggets at Timberwolves (7:00pm ET): Denver is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Nuggets are just 3-5 ATS.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Thursday
January 19, 2017

George Karl is no longer coaching in Denver but it’s hard to tell when you watch this year’s Nuggets squad, especially lately.

It’s rare to make the playoffs in the Western Conference with a losing record but Denver (17-23 straight up, 21-19 against the spread) currently sits in the eighth and final spot. If the club makes the postseason, a quick first-round exit would be likely against the Warriors or Spurs but it’s safe to say that either series would be entertaining to watch.

The Nuggets are ranked fourth in scoring offense with 109.7 points per game and they’re attempting 87.7 shots per game, which is the third fastest pace in the league. Defensively, Denver is ranked 28th in both field goal percentage (47.2%) and scoring (111.5 PPG).

A great offense and suspect defense usually produces ‘over’ tickets and it’s not surprising to see Denver lead the league with a 29-10-1 (74%) record to the high side.

VegasInsider.comNBA handicapper Paul Bovi is a little surprised that Denver continues to play so recklessly and actually win. He said, “The Nuggets have become amongst the most prolific scoring offenses in the league, while at the same time deemphasizing defense despite the outspoken criticism of their coach Mike Malone. Since his comments were made public on Jan. 4, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 118 PPG in winning three of five games while scoring at a 120 clip themselves. In the last three, they've logged an astounding 214 points in the paint but have allowed 166.”

Bovi isn’t sure if the points will keep coming but the bookmakers have taken notice.

“There was some value in their totals recently however those bargains are likely to evaporate going forward,” explained Bovi.

Denver visits San Antonio (32-9 SU, 24-17 ATS) on Thursday and the oddsmakers aren’t expecting the club to extend the winning streak on the road. The Spurs opened as 11 ½-point home favorites and the number moved quickly to 12 ½ at most betting shops.

The total opened 219 overnight but was as high as 222 as of Thursday morning. The Nuggets are on a 7-0 run to the ‘over’ and one of those outcomes came on Jan. 5 when they were blasted 127-99 to the Spurs at home. San Antonio was the club shooting lights out in that win, connecting on 56.7 percent of its shots and 12-of-24 from 3-point land.

That effort from the Spurs has become a common theme this season. San Antonio is averaging 107.1 PPG, up four points from last season, and it leads the league in 3-point shooting percentage (41.5%). Those offensive results have translated into a 24-16-1 ‘over’ mark for the Spurs.

Including the win a couple weeks ago, the Spurs have taken 11 of 12 versus the Nuggets and they’ve covered eight of those wins. Make a note that even though Denver is playing looser lately, the Spurs have had their number defensively in recent meetings from the AT&T Center. Denver has dropped seven straight trips at this venue and the offense has been held in check (98.5 PPG) during this stretch.

Along with this matchup from San Antonio, there are four other games on tap for Thursday.

Phoenix (13-28 SU, 21-19 ATS) at Cleveland (29-11 SU, 17-21 ATS): The Cavaliers return home Thursday after a six-game road trip that watched them to struggle to a 3-3 record which ended with a humbling 35-point loss (126-91) at Golden State on Monday. Despite owning the best record in the Eastern Conference, the defending NBA champions have been the second worst team against the spread this season (17-21) and most of the losses have come in January (1-7 ATS). These teams just met on Jan. 8 and the Suns dropped a 120-116 home decision to Cleveland but they covered as 8 ½-point home underdogs. Since LeBron James returned to the Cavs, the club has gone 5-1 in the last six encounters in this series but Phoenix has managed to earn covers in four of those games. Even though Phoenix is 15 games under .500 this season, it has produced an 8-5 record versus the East and that includes a 2-2 road mark (3-1 ATS). Most shops have Cleveland listed as an 11 ½-point favorite. Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (back) is listed as ‘questionable’ for this game.

Dallas (14-27 SU, 20-21 ATS) at Miami (12-30 SU, 20-22 ATS): Neither of these teams are going to this year’s playoffs but they both enter this matchup off wins. Miami knocked off Houston 109-103 on Tuesday as a 7 ½-point home underdog which snapped a four-game losing skid. The Heat haven’t been a great bet off a win this season, going 3-8 and they face a Dallas team that brings a three-game winning streak to town. The Mavericks started the season 1-12 on the road but have gone 4-3 in their last seven and they’ve covered five of those games. For what it’s worth, this series has been one-sided in the Heat’s favor since the Dallas beat Miami in six games of the 2011 NBA Finals. The Heat have captured nine of the past 10 meetings and four of the previous five from South Florida. Total bettors should note that Dallas has been one of the better ‘under’ wagers (24-17) and it enters this game on a 5-1 run to the low side and tonight’s number (197) is the lowest on the board.

Washington (22-19 SU, 22-19 ATS) at New York (19-24 SU, 25-18 ATS): The Wizards have won 11 of the past 12 meetings against the Knicks, which includes a 119-112 decision on Nov. 17 as five-point home favorites. During this span, the Wizards have won five straight at Madison Square Garden but three of the five victories were decided by three points or less. Both of these clubs won on Wednesday and bettors could be hesitant to back either one in this spot tonight. When playing with no rest, neither Washington (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) or New York (1-8 SU, 5-4 ATS) have been sound investments in back-to-back spots. The Wizards have been in much better form than the Knicks, winners in six of their last seven games. However, Washington’s home (18-6) and away (4-13) tendencies have been very drastic this season. New York hasn’t won back-to-back games since mid-December but it has been solid at Madison Square Garden (12-9 SU, 14-7 ATS) this season.

Minnesota (14-28 SU, 19-23 ATS) at L.A. Clippers (29-14 SU, 22-21 ATS): Tough game to handicap here due to the Chris Paul thumb injury, which occurred in Monday’s 120-98 home win over Oklahoma City. The All-Star point guard is expected to miss up to eight weeks and those minutes will likely be filled by a combination of Austin Rivers, Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford. The Clippers have gone 3-5 without him this season and were playing at a high level recently, winners in seven straight games (6-1 ATS). Los Angeles has won 17 of the last 20 meetings against Minnesota and that includes a 119-105 win on Nov. 12 as a 5 ½-point road favorite. The Timberwolves have struggled on the road (5-15 SU, 7-13 ATS) and they enter this game with six straight losses as visitors. As expected, the Clippers (-2) aren’t going to be laying heavy digits anymore until Paul returns.