The Bum's National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[StarDust Bum]

Green to watch Game 5 next door
June 13, 2016

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Suspended Golden State Warriors star Draymond Green was expected to watch Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night in a baseball suite next door to Oracle Arena at the Oakland Coliseum, where the Athletics are playing the Texas Rangers.

The Warriors, however, said Green's plans had already changed several times Monday morning.

The defending champions held a 3-1 lead against LeBron James and Cleveland in their best-of-seven series and were trying to close out a second straight title against the Cavaliers - this time in front of their raucous home fans.

''It's another test,'' guard Shaun Livingston said of playing without emotional leader Green. ''We've went through a lot of tests this year. It's kind of the ultimate being in the position that we're in, so it's a great opportunity for a lot of guys and for our team and coaches. ... It's a cohesion thing throughout the whole team. We rely on our chemistry, we rely on each other, we play for each other. One guy is not just going to make up what Draymond brings to the table. It's all the little things he does that wins championships.''

Green was suspended by the NBA on Sunday for a fourth-quarter scuffle with James in Game 4, during which the league said Green ''made unnecessary contact with a retaliatory swipe of his hand to the groin'' of James. Green was issued a retroactive Flagrant-1 foul for his fourth flagrant point of the postseason, drawing an automatic suspension.

James said Green's trash talk also went ''a little bit outside of basketball.''

After Monday's game, Green will be allowed to enter Oracle Arena to either celebrate with his teammates or prepare for a trip to Ohio for Game 6. Hallways connect the side-by-side venues, providing Green an ideal option to stay close by.

Smiling and being playful, Green was his upbeat, high-energy self - or at least appeared so - during a shootaround Monday morning at the team's downtown practice facility. He pulled off a set of pushups between taking shots, let out a loud ''Ahhhhh!'' for all to hear and animatedly pointed his right arm in the direction of center Andrew Bogut before disappearing as the Warriors wrapped up their day-of-game preparations.

While coach Steve Kerr has advised all of his players to stay ready because there might be some varying lineups and rotations, Livingston said Green hadn't addressed the team. There's a lot of production to make up for without Green's postseason 15.3 points, team-high 9.6 rebounds and six assists - not to mention his defense.

''It's tough. He's in a different position now,'' Livingston said. ''Usually he's able to be vocal and then go out and then go out and set the example. Now with him not playing, it's kind of speaking from a different position. Steve has been great kind of feeding us what we need. I don't think we should need any extra motivation tonight.''

[StarDust Bum]

Game 5 Props - Best Bets
June 13, 2016

The NBA Finals continues on Monday with Game 5 between the Cavaliers and Warriors from Oracle Arena. If you’re hesitant to back the side or total for the second contest in this series, then we suggest you take a closer look at the available player props.

Our trio of NBA experts produced a 6-2 overall record for Game 4 and those winners produced over eight units of profit.


Chris David: 7-2 (+1345)
Tony Mejia: 8-4 (+800)
Kevin Rogers: 5-6 (-480)

Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 5 below.

Odds & Props provided by Sportsbook.ag

Chris David

3 Units - Over Stephen Curry Total Field Goal Attempts 20 (-115)

Curry stepped up in Game 4 and I expect him to continue firing away in Game 5 on Monday. In this year's playoffs, Curry has played 40-plus minutes in four games and he attempted 22, 22, 24 and 25 shots in those games. In the one contest that Draymond Green missed in the regular season, Curry hoisted 25 shots and I would expect a comparable number in Game 5. As long as he stays on the court, this wager could connect early.

2 Units - Under LeBron James Total 3-Point Field Goal Attempts 4.5 (-120)

This particular wager is going to be tight but with the paint opening up, I'm expecting LeBron to drive and dish in Game 5 rather than camp outside. In the first 18 games of this year's playoffs, he's eclipsed this number (4.5) eight times while attempting no more than six in a game. In Cleveland's last five postseason wins, he's attempted a combined 15 shots from 3-point land. Knowing he's the smartest player in the NBA, I'm believing that he knows the best chance to win Game 5 is to get inside and grind out a win.

Kevin Rogers

2 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Total Points 10.5 (-115)

With Draymond Green sidelined due to his suspension, Iguodala will get more minutes in Game 5. Iguodala continues to show consistency off the bench by averaging 10 points per game in the Finals.

2 Units – Under J.R. Smith Made Three-Pointers 2.5 (-120)

Smith hit 5-of-10 three-pointers in the Game 3 blowout, but has shot 4-of-15 from downtown in the other three games of this series. The Cavaliers’ guard attempted only seven three-pointers in the opening two games at Oracle Arena, while hitting four treys or fewer in seven consecutive contests in Oakland.

1 Unit – Under Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 20 (-120)

Barnes has stepped up in this series, averaging 12.5 points per game. In the three prior Game 5’s of the playoffs, Barnes has scored 8, 8, and 6 points, while pulling down a total of 11 rebounds in those games. The Warriors’ swingman hasn’t dished out more than three assists in a game this postseason, so as long as that trend remains true and he struggles from the floor, then this should stay ‘under’ the total.

Tony Mejia

2 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Total Rebounds + Assists 9.5 (-115)

Draymond Green's absence makes Iggy even more important and ensures he's likely to get 35-plus minutes barring foul trouble. Expect him to pack the stat sheet in these two categories.

2 Units – Over LeBron James Points + Rebounds + Assists 45.5 (-115)

It would be shocking if he doesn't go down swinging, which means he'll be in attack mode and involved in every aspect of the game.

1 Unit – Over J.R. Smith 3-pointers made 2.5 (-120)

Given the extra attention the Warriors will have to give LeBron with Green not out there, expect there to be open looks for the Cavs' inconsistent sniper, who should deliver on his share.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, JUNE 13

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at GS 09:00 PM

GS -5.5

O 208.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Regular season plus/minus for the Golden State Warriors this year:

+1,068-- Draymond Green (70% of minutes)

+1,023-- Steph Curry (67%)

+835-- Klay Thompson (67%)

+454-- Andre Iguodala (43%)

+451-- Harrison Barnes (51%)

+399-- Andrew Bogut (36%)

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) Baseball's interleague trading deadline is July 31, but when I was a kid, back in the 70's, it was June 15. On June 15, 1976, the A's tried to sell Rollie Fingers/Joe Rudi to the Red Sox and Vida Blue to New York. Oakland had won the last five AL West titles, but had lost Catfish Hunter to free agency, and the owner was bailing out.

Now I was a 16-year old high school junior; this didn't set well with me, someone who had zero idea how the real world works. Three days later, the baseball commish nixed the deals and the players went back to Oakland, but things were never the same again.

I guess that day was when it hit me that sports are a big business, not just something that people do for fun.

12) Nationals 5, Cubs 4 (12)-- Chicago is now 40-4 when it scores 4+ runs. This had the feel of a postseason game.

11) Last time the #1 pick in NBA Draft came from the Pac-12 (or Pac-8 or Pac-10) was Bill Walton way back in 1974.

10) Philadelphia Eagles have doled out $280,254,834 in guaranteed salary so far in 2016; next highest figure in NFL this year: Giants, at roughly $141M.

9) You don't see a starting pitcher thrown out of a game for arguing balls, strikes very often; Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi got run by umpire Jerry Meals Tuesday nite. Meals is a notorious hitters' ump (over is 28-13-3 in Meals' games last two years).

8) Last major league player to play every position in one game: Shane Halter, way back on October 1, 2000 for Detroit.

7) Obscure baseball record: since 1938, of all the hitters to bat .300+ in a season, Billy Butler into the most doubleplays-- he hit into 32 twin killings in 2010, when he hit .318. Four guys hit into 31 DPs, including Matt Holliday and Jim Rice.

6) Another nominee for "Worst TV show ever": Marriage Boot Camp. Horrendous progam showcasing attention-starved couples getting in disputes of various kinds. I'd rather stare at color bars for an hour than watch another minute of that garbage.

5) Colorado Rockies DFA'd Jose Reyes yesterday, meaning they have ten days to trade him or else they can release him or send him to the minors, if he agrees to do that. Reyes will still get his $22M a year salary, but not sure a contender will want to pick him up-- there is no way a non-conender would pick him up, given domestic violence backlash involved. Hard to believe his career would end this way.

4) Chris Sale was 9-0, 1.58 in his first nine starts this year; he is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four. Why do players suddenly lose it or why do they suddenly regain their form?

3) WWE is returning to Las Vegas Sunday night for first time in eight years, at the new T-Mobile Arena just off the strip, kind of behind the New York-New York hotel.

2) Portland Trailblazers decided to fire their TV announcers this week, which makes me sad, since Mike Rice is one of my favorites. A former coach, Rice used to call Big West games on USA Network in the Tark the Shark glory years in the 80's-- his son Mike was the coach at Rutgers a few years ago. Rice was with the Trailblazers for 26 yeasrs and is immensely popular with Trailblazer fans.

1) Apparently they don't have public rest rooms in North Dakota.

Eagles' rookie QB Carson Wentz somehow got locked in a bathroom at a gas station in New Jersey on Wednesday; his rescue included garden shears.

If the Rams had drafted this guy, I'd probably be a little worried right now.

[StarDust Bum]

Favored Cavaliers battling some nasty NBA betting trends in Game 6

There have been six NBA Finals teams, down 3-2 in the series, favored in Game 6 since 1991. Just one of those favorites managed to cover, finishing 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU).

The Cleveland Cavaliers have jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire after avoiding elimination with a stunning 112-97 road win over the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

The Cavaliers, who are now down 3-2 to the Warriors in the championship series after twin 41-point efforts from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving Monday, find themselves not only fighting a motivated Golden State squad (one with star forward Draymond Green returning from suspension), but also battling an eye-opening NBA betting trend as sportsbooks currently have Cleveland pegged as a 2.5-point home favorite for Game 6 Thursday.

The Cavs are a rare betting favorite facing elimination in the NBA Playoffs, a situation that has produced a 50-72-2 ATS record (71-53 SU) going back to the 1991 NBA Playoffs, with those faves covering the spread just 41 percent of the time. Narrowing down those numbers to just favorites down 3-2 in the series, and that NBA chalk is a measly 26-41-0 ATS (35-32 SU) – a 39 percent ATS belly ache.

Betting history continues to pile on LeBron & Co. heading into Game 6. Looking exclusively at the NBA Finals, there have been six teams, down 3-2 in the series, favored in Game 6 of the finals in the past 25 years. Just one of those favorites managed to cover the pointspread (2010 Los Angeles Lakers), finishing 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU).

The size of the spread has also played a significant factor when it comes to favorites facing elimination. Favorites of -3 or less (Cleveland opened -2 and moved to -2.5) have gone a collective 12-25-0 ATS or 32 percent (14-23 SU), with teams stuck in a 3-2 hole producing a 9-17-0 ATS mark (10-16 SU) for a 35 percent success rate at the window. Those favorites of -3 or less down 3-2 in the NBA Finals have been outscored 94.5-92.4 in Game 6 since 1991, equaling a 10-16-0 Over/Under count.

On the season, the Cavaliers are 7-5 SU and ATS as favorites of -3 or less including the postseason. The Warriors, on the other hand, have been betting underdogs just 10 times this season, boasting a 7-3 ATS record as pups including a 2-1 ATS mark in the playoffs.

Golden State is 3-2 ATS in the 2016 NBA Finals and has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games versus Cleveland, including a 4-1 ATS record in its last five contests inside Quicken Loans Arena.

Over/Under note: Favorites facing elimination in the NBA Playoffs have produced a 56-66 Over/Under record in the past 25 years (32-35 O/U in Game 6 situations), with faves trailing 3-2 in the NBA Finals finishing with a 2-4 O/U mark in Game 6.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, June 16

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NBA Finals Game 6 betting preview and odds: Warriors at Cavaliers
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The Cavaliers haven't lost back-to-back home games this season. If they do in Game 6 their season is over.

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5, 207.5)

Warriors lead series 3-2

The Cleveland Cavaliers needed historic performances from Kyrie Irving and LeBron James to stay alive in the NBA Finals, and the two stars delivered. James and Irving will try to follow up their incredible efforts when Draymond Green returns to the lineup and the Golden State Warriors visit the Cavaliers with another chance to close out the series in Game 6 on Thursday.

Green was hit with a one-game suspension after the NBA deemed his hit to James’ groin in Game 4 a flagrant foul, and the Warriors defense was noticeably less cohesive without its leader. “I thought our defensive communication was lacking,” Golden State coach Steve Ker told reporters. “We had some plays where we didn’t pick up in transition and we had some cross matches that we didn’t identify and they got free, especially Kyrie, and made a lot of shots in transition where we just weren’t there.” James and Irving became the first pair of teammates in NBA Finals history to score at least 40 points in the same game when they both finished with 41 in Game 5, and Irving went 9-of-14 from the field in the second half as Cleveland pulled away. "You've got a guy like this who is very special," James told reporters of Irving. "It's probably one of the greatest performances I've ever seen live."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as slight 2-point home favorites and were quickly bet to -2.5 and have been at that number ever since. The total has yet to move off the opening number 207.5. Check out the complete line history for Game 6 here.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State’s defense took a second hit in addition to the loss of Green when anchor Andrew Bogut went down early in the third quarter of Game 5 with a knee injury. Bogut did not return to the game and underwent an MRI exam that revealed bone bruises that will force him out for the rest of the Finals but will not require surgery. The Warriors could make up for the loss with a little help on the offensive end from MVP Steph Curry, who went 8-of-21 from the field on Monday and is averaging 22.2 points on 42.4 percent shooting in the series – down from a league-best 30.1 points on 50.4 percent in the regular season.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Cleveland is trying to become the first team ever to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals and needs another blistering effort from Irving and James, who combined to account for 97 of the team’s 112 points in Game 5 including assists to other teammates. "Same thing,” Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters of the plan for Game 6 at home. “Continue to be aggressive, continue to bring physicality and continue to attack.” Cleveland got forward Kevin Love back from a concussion in Game 5 but the former All-Star was limited to two points on 1-of-5 shooting in 33 minutes.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.
* Warriors are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Warriors last nine versus Eastern Conference opponents.
* Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six games following a ATS win.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to the Warriors with 53 percent of wagers taking the +2.5 and Golden State. As for the total, 58 percent of bettors are on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 16


Golden State @ Cleveland

Game 511-512
June 16, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
135.797
Cleveland
131.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 4
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2
207 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 16

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GOLDEN STATE (88 - 16) at CLEVELAND (71 - 30) - 6/16/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-43 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 65-45 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-8 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-6 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 16

Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 3-2)
Green is back for this game, which makes Warriors better on defense; Golden State is 4-5 on road in playoffs, with four of those five losses coming in Game 3's. Cleveland's loss in Game 4 was their first loss in eight home games in playoffs. Five of last seven Golden State games, four of last six Cavalier games stayed under the total. Warriors are 8-2 in last 10 games with Cleveland (under 6-3-1).

In the playoffs this spring, under is 50-32-1

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 3-2, Over: 2-3




NBA

Thursday, June 16

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

[StarDust Bum]

NBA ATS

NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE against the spread in All games after a non-conference game
The record is 23 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (+13.1 units)

NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE against the spread in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 28 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.9 units)

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NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 30 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+23.15 units)

NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games off a upset loss as a favorite
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+9.7 units)

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NBA FIRST HALF

NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE@ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Play AGAINST GOLDEN STATE ?>in the first halfin Road games in all playoff games
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (-9.9 units)

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NBA TOP POWERLINE

NBA > (511) GOLDEN STATE @ (512) CLEVELAND | 2016-06-16 21:05:00 - 2016-06-16 21:05:00
Line: CLEVELAND-2 BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND-6
Edge On: CLEVELAND (4)

[StarDust Bum]

Curry says he's poised for Game 6
June 16, 2016

CLEVELAND (AP) Stephen Curry has had his shoulder wrapped in this series, been questioned about his level of fatigue, even had his choice of footwear shredded on Twitter.

It hasn't been the easiest time for the MVP.

He could get the most perfect of endings anyway.

Golden State's point guard - the two-time reigning MVP who had the most prolific 3-point season in league history by a ridiculously wide margin on his way to a scoring title - has had probably more moments of struggle than many expected in these NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Still, his Warriors are on the cusp of back-to-back titles and could hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy again with a win in Game 6 on Thursday night.

''Definitely the biggest game,'' Curry said. ''And I'm ready for it.''

The Warriors can only hope he's right.

Golden State leads the series 3-2 and can win the title on Cleveland's home floor for the second straight year - which would probably be plenty sweet for Curry, who was born in nearby Akron, Ohio (as was Cavs' star LeBron James). He could join a very select club of players who won MVP awards and NBA titles in consecutive seasons, the others on that list being James, Michael Jordan and Bill Russell.

Not bad.

But to get there, Curry and the Warriors still need one more win - and a big night from their best scorer would go a long way toward making that a reality. Even with Draymond Green suspended for Game 5 because of too many flagrant fouls, Golden State still felt it had a chance to close the series out at home on Monday night but succumbed to 41-point barrages from James and Kyrie Irving.

''I don't want to be a prisoner of the moment and say Game 5 was a direct reflection of who we are as a team and who I am as an individual, as a player, as a leader,'' Curry said. ''I was out there doing what I was trying to do to help our team win and it didn't work. So that happens in sports. It happens in our game, and nothing's going to stop me from coming back and doing what I do to help lead my team in Game 6.''

Curry isn't exactly looking for a breakout game - he already had a 38-point effort in Game 4, when the Warriors won in Cleveland and grabbed a 3-1 series lead.

But the Cavs have not made this simple.

They've held Curry under 50 percent shooting in four of the five games so far, kept him under 20 points in three of them and have essentially forced him into one turnover for every assist (23 assists, 22 turnovers). Everyone knows that the Warriors' attack is fueled by Curry and Klay Thompson, and Cleveland has frustrated both at times.

''We want to continue to not turn the ball over and stop those guys, Steph and Klay, from just having one of these barrages from the perimeter,'' James said. ''We also want to try to put pressure on those other guys. Those other guys can beat you as well.''

The Warriors reviewed the Game 5 film on Wednesday morning, and Curry didn't like a lot of what he saw.

It wasn't his 8-for-21 shooting, 5 for 14 from 3-point land, that made him cringe. Instead, he noticed tons of slippage in areas where Golden State usually excels, and he knows that if those areas get cleaned up for Game 6, the Warriors could cap a year that already includes an NBA-record 73 regular-season wins with the title they need to make this run truly historic.

''I don't really worry about the shots that I missed,'' Curry said. ''Those are ones you live with. ... The stuff that kind of bothered me the most is on the offensive end there were certain possessions where we had the right reads and right looks, but passes got deflected because they were a little lazy or we didn't have a crispness to what we were doing. That was a situation where you felt like you had missed opportunities.''

Game 6 is another opportunity.

He believes he won't miss this one.

''Yeah, I want to honestly play better and more consistent,'' Curry said. ''But the situation is right now we're one game away from winning a second championship, and I personally have 48 minutes to do what I need to do to help my team win.''

[StarDust Bum]

LeBron, Cavs pushing for Game 7
June 15, 2016

CLEVELAND (AP) LeBron James has watched ''The Godfather'' trilogy over and over during these playoffs. The Oscar-winning films about crime, family, honor - and revenge - soothe and motivate him. He can't get enough.

But while he's not tired of the classic films, there's a final scene in the NBA Finals he has witnessed too many times, and if he can avoid it again Thursday night, there will be an offer he and the Cleveland Cavaliers can't refuse.

''Two of the best words ever,'' James said, ''Game 7.''

On the strength of a historic performance by James and Kyrie Irving in Game 5, the Cavs saved their season and are home with a second chance to even this unpredictable series against the defending champion Golden State Warriors, who will have forward Draymond Green back from his one-game suspension for bad behavior.

James has been in this spot before.

So have the Warriors.

It was on June 16 last year when they closed out a short-handed Cavaliers squad in six games to win their first title since 1975. The Warriors, their families and friends partied into the early morning hours in Quicken Loans Arena, spraying champagne around their small locker room and adding another close-but-no-title entry to Cleveland's 52-year-old list of sports misery.

The Cavs, who are trying to become the first team in history to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the finals, can't bear the thought of Stephen Curry and Co. doing it to them a second time.

''No matter where it gets done, stopping them is the point,'' J.R. Smith said. ''If they win it here, it's going to hurt. If they get it there, it's going to hurt.''

To avoid any pain whatsoever, and pack this series up for a third trip to Northern California, the Cavs can't count on James and Irving to duplicate their effort in Game 5, when they scored 41 points apiece and had a hand in 97 as Cleveland won 112-97. It would help if they got something from Kevin Love, who scored just 2 points in the close-out game and added only three rebounds in 33 minutes.

Love's first finals - he missed last year's with a shoulder injury - have gone poorly. He missed Game 3 with a concussion, and his ineffectiveness in this series is driving discussion about the Cavs moving him this summer.

Following Wednesday's practice, Love spent several minutes sitting on the scorer's table and chatting with Cavs coach Tyronn Lue, who must weigh whether to stick with the struggling forward or start Richard Jefferson, who gave Cleveland a huge spark in its Game 3 win.

Whatever Lue decides, James knows how Love can help.

''Just need him to be aggressive,'' he said. ''From the defensive side of the floor and the offensive side of the floor, go out and make an impact on the game, no matter if he's not scoring, no matter if at times he feels like he's not getting touches. We all just need to continue to be aggressive. He needs to be aggressive to help us try to send this game back to Golden State.

''I think he's looking forward to the challenge. I think he's looking forward to the moment. We definitely need him. He's too big of a piece to our puzzle.''

Although the Cavs face an unnerving task trying to unseat the Warriors by beating them three times in a row, James is no stranger to the challenge.

In the 2013 finals, he twice helped Miami stave off elimination against San Antonio before the Heat beat the Spurs in seven games. James, who is 2-4 in the finals, has saved his best performances for close-out games, averaging 32.4 points, 11 rebounds and 6.6 assists in 15 of them. His teams are 8-7.

While others wilt in do-or-die games, James thrives.

''I've just been fortunate enough to make some shots, for one,'' he said, explaining his calm under pressure. ''Grab some rebounds, find some teammates. Guys put the ball in my face and get some blocks, and guys throw some errant passes and I'm able to get some steals. It's that simple. It's not easy, but it's that simple. I know what happens in elimination games. I understand the magnitude of it, but it doesn't bother me too much.

''I know how true I am to the game. So I'm able to try to just bottle that and live with the results. It's not always been great, but I guess the last few elimination games it's been pretty good, and hopefully I can continue that tomorrow.''

If he does, there's a long flight to Oakland awaiting him.

Plenty of time to watch his favorite movie again, too.

[StarDust Bum]

Green vows to be better in Game 6
June 15, 2016

CLEVELAND (AP) For all the criticism of Golden State's Draymond Green and his penchant for committing flagrant fouls during these playoffs, Wednesday may have brought the harshest words yet.

The critic: Green himself.

Saying he let the Warriors down and that he was a ''terrible teammate,'' Green spoke on how it pained him to be suspended for Game 5 of the NBA Finals - and how he will make amends Thursday night in Game 6, when the Warriors visit the Cleveland Cavaliers and get a second shot at winning what would be their second straight championship.

''I owe to my teammates to come back and give all that I have, all that I can do to better this situation,'' Green said. ''I have strong belief that if I play Game 5, we win. But I didn't because I put myself in a situation where I wasn't able to play.''

Golden State leads the series 3-2, but now knows it will play the rest of the series without starting center Andrew Bogut because of a left knee injury. Green - who missed Game 5 because of how many flagrants he has accrued during the playoffs - will be called upon to play some center in Game 6, as he has plenty of times in this postseason already.

''Draymond is the spirit of what we do,'' said Warriors guard Stephen Curry, the NBA's two-time reigning MVP. ''You see it out on the floor.''

This series is back in Cleveland largely because LeBron James and Kyrie Irving could not be stopped in Game 5, when the Warriors' best defender was watching the Cavaliers' star duo score 41 points apiece from a suite at the adjacent baseball stadium that the Oakland Athletics call home. Green alone could not have stopped their onslaught, but it surely stands to reason that life would have been more difficult for Cleveland if he was in uniform.

With Green watching, the A's won by nine.

Without Green playing, the Warriors lost by 15. He's already spoken to his teammates about his mistakes, and made clear that watching Game 5 from next door left him hurting.

''Everybody's helped with Draymond being on the floor,'' Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. ''So that will be nice to have him back. We missed him the other night. We were disappointed in our performance without him. We thought we could still get it done, but we didn't. So now it's time to recharge the batteries and get ready.''

The straw that got Green suspended was when he took a swipe at James' groin area in Game 4. But when asked what he expected when he sees Green in Game 6, James showed he's only focused on bigger pictures and no mano-a-mano battle.

''My only job is to get this win, man,'' James said.

Green met with reporters for about 11 minutes before practice, and didn't shy away from his mistakes in these playoffs. Some thought he merited a suspension when he kicked Oklahoma City's Steven Adams in the groin area during the Western Conference finals. The NBA upgraded the foul and fined him after reviewing that play, and when another flagrant was assessed after-the-fact for taking the shot at James a suspension was automatic.

''I move on from the suspension. We move on. It was Game 5. We're here in Game 6,'' Green said. ''So it's behind us. We've got an opportunity to do something that, I don't know if it's ever been done ... where you win a championship on someone else's floor two years in a row.''

Teams have won at home in consecutive years, but to do it in the same road locale has only happened once before - the Boston Celtics celebrated on the Los Angeles Lakers' home floor in back-to-back years, 1968 and 1969.

Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue was asked if his team might try to prod Green a bit, knowing another flagrant foul or two technicals in Game 6 would mean another suspension for Game 7.

''You just play the game,'' Lue said.

Green, who acknowledged that he's been working on keeping emotions in check, didn't sound worried.

''I think I've got to come out and play my game regardless,'' Green said. ''But there are those little fine lines where you just know you can't cross them.''

If Cleveland wins, Game 7 is in Oakland, California on Sunday.

If Cleveland loses, the Warriors will celebrate on the Cavs' home floor for the second consecutive year - exactly one year to the day from last year's clincher. And if Golden State gets to spray champagne the cramped visiting locker room at Quicken Loans Arena around again, those bubbles will likely wash away most of not all the sting Green is feeling for letting his team down.

''Nobody will remember this down the road if we get this done tomorrow night,'' Curry said. ''So that's really all we need to talk about.''

[StarDust Bum]

Books gear up for Game 6
June 14, 2016

NBA Finals bettors have a lot to think about before wagering on Thursday's Game 6 at the Quicken Loans Center where do-or-die Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite over Golden State at most Las Vegas sports books.

Can the Cavs duplicate the insanely efficient Game 6 performance where they won 112-97 to cut the Warriors lead to 3-2. Or do the Warriors step up with Draymond Green back in the lineup and win a Game 6 and an NBA Championship at Cleveland for the second consecutive year?

In Monday's game the Cavs played to the high level most saw when they began the playoffs on a 10-0 run. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both scored 41-points in the runaway win becoming the only duo in NBA Finals to score more than 40 in a game.

They didn't seem to miss -- especially early on -- combining to make 33 of 54 shots while letting Kevin Love shoot only five times (2 pts in 33 mins). James and also chipped in with 18 boards and seven assists in a game he was obviously charged up for.

So what are bettors on the strip saying?

MGM Resorts sports book hub director Jeff Stoneback already heard people talking when he came into work Tuesday morning. "A regular bettor with us came up to me this morning saying 'I don't know who to play for the next game."

There's a feeling that nobody can beat the Cavs if Kyrie and LeBron do what they did in Game 5, but the same can be said for Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. Which duo does the best? And does momentum carry over into Cleveland with a city that will be going absolutely wild as they hope to win its first pro sports championship since 1964. "We're still alive, we believe".

After the home team won and covered the first three games, the last two have been won by the road underdogs. Stoneback said bettors were on the Cavs in Game 6 and they were even taking +5.5 when there were +6 and +6.5s available around town. He said they were a small loser after getting late Warriors money to help balance the risk.

An area where the MGM books aren't balanced is the series price.

"We had lots of people playing the Cavs adjusted series price taking 10-to-1 prior to Game 5," said Stoneback.

"It's a big loss for us; we had over $100,000 worth of liability on it with Monday's action alone."

Because of that risk Stoneback wanted to at least re-open the adjusted price Tuesday morning lower than the market to attract a little more Warriors money.

The Westgate SuperBook had been at Warriors -500/+400 and dropped to -450/+375 Tuesday morning and the Wynn was at -425/+325.

Stoneback re-opened the price at his 10 MGM books along the strip at -420/+340, saying "we can't open it any higher."

The MGM staff will monitor the series price with the goal of not wanting any more Cavs action and attempt to attract Warriors money to balance things out.

Look for them to stay lower throughout the next few days and it's the place to wager at if believing the Warriors will close this thing out within the next two games. Green, who was suspended for Game 5, could be just the boost Golden State needs.

Since posted Game 6 with the Cavs at home being -2 and 207.5 at, Stoneback said he's "seen very little action, like only a couple thousand."

[StarDust Bum]

Cavs face must-win Game 6
June 16, 2016


GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (88-16) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (71-30)

NBA Finals, Game 6
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -2.5, Total: 207.5

The Cavaliers will be hoping to force a Game 7 when they host the Warriors in Game 6 on Thursday.

Cleveland seemed like it was heading towards a Game 5 loss in this series, but PF Draymond Green was suspended and the Cavaliers took advantage of it. With no Green, the Warriors were vulnerable defensively and Cleveland was able to win Game 5 112-97 as a 5.5-point underdog at Oracle Arena.

The Cavaliers shot 53.0% from the floor in the game and they also held the Warriors to just 36.4% shooting. They’ll be hoping they can keep that up when they host Golden State on Thursday, but Green will be back in the lineup for this contest.

C Andrew Bogut (Knee), however, is out for the remainder of the series for Golden State, so not all is well for the Warriors.

One trend that does favor the team is that Golden State is 23-8 ATS when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points over the past two seasons.

The Warriors are also 14-4 ATS after having lost two of their past three games over the past two seasons.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are an impressive 20-9 ATS when playing only their second game in five days. They also happen to be completely healthy coming into this pivotal Game 6.

The Warriors had complete control of this series after winning Game 4 in Cleveland, but they were dealt a huge blow with PF Draymond Green (15.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) being suspended in Game 5. Green is the best defender that Golden State has and he is the guy that makes their small-ball lineup so dangerous.

The Warriors lost without him in Game 5, but he’ll be back to give them another shot at winning the championship on Thursday. Green will be well rested coming into the game and he’ll surely play with a ton of passion in this one. It is, however, important that he stays out of foul trouble. With Bogut out, Green will be the guy that plays most of the Warriors’ minutes at center and the team can’t afford to lose him anymore.

The play of PG Stephen Curry (25.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) will also come a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Curry has been miserable in the Finals, shooting just 42.4% from the floor and averaging 4.4 turnovers per game. Golden State needs the MVP to start knocking down shots at a higher clip, but he also needs to take much better care of the ball on Thursday.

One guy that has been doing his job has been SG Klay Thompson (24.7 PPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs). Thompson did everything he could to keep Golden State in Game 5, pouring in 37 points in 41 minutes of action. He’s been knocking down threes consistently and will need to continue to play his solid brand of two-way basketball on Thursday.

The Cavaliers are coming off of a gutsy victory over the Warriors in Game 5 of the Finals and the reason Cleveland was able to win was because of heroic performances from both SF LeBron James (25.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.3 APG, 2.3 APG, 1.1 BPG in playoffs) and PG Kyrie Irving (25.3 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs).

James had 41 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks and three steals in 43 minutes of action in Game 5. He was an impressive 16-for-30 from the field in that one, but Irving might have been even better.

The young guard poured in 41 points on 17-for-24 shooting from the field in that game and also dished out six assists and had two steals. If Irving can continue to outplay Stephen Curry in this series then it’s extremely possible that the Cavaliers will end up completing the comeback to win this series.

The team will, however, need PF Kevin Love (15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG in playoffs) to play a bit better on Thursday. He had just two points in 33 minutes of action on Monday and he is capable of playing a lot better than that.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Finals Game 6 Preview
June 16, 2016


NBA Finals - Game 6 - Warriors lead 3-2

Golden State at Cleveland (-2/207.5), 9:00 p.m. ET - ABC

The NBA Finals are back in Cleveland. Considering where things stood last time they were in town last Friday night, that’s a mild upset, but don’t believe for a second the Cavs are playing with house money.

No, there’s genuine pressure. Not only are they two-point favorites to get the series back to Oakland for a Game 7, but a loss would mean that the Warriors would be celebrating another title one year to the date of last year’s conquest.

A loss would not only make LeBron James 0-for-3 in NBA Finals with his hometown team, but it would also mean that all three times, the visitors celebrated winning the title in a city that hasn’t claimed one of their own in any major sport since 1964. That’s cold, but very Cleveland-like.

Worse yet, Stephen Curry would claim a second straight title in a year where he was named regular-season MVP, dancing and partying it up at LeBron’s house while joining him, Michael Jordan and Bill Russell as the only players in league history to accomplish that feat in consecutive seasons.

James and Kyrie Irving come in after carving out their own piece of history, becoming the first teammates to each top the 40-point mark in the NBA’s championship round. They combined to shoot 33-for-54 (61 pct) against the Draymond Green-less Warriors, doing so while helping the Cavs buckle down defensively in allowing just 13 fourth-quarter points in the 112-97 win.

“They’re special players. They’re capable of having special nights,” said Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue. “We know that, we’ve seen it before. If they didn’t have it going then we’d have run other things to get other guys involved, but with those two guys having a special night, we rode them and they came through for us.”

Although returning home should help them maintain a rhythm, Green’s return from suspension means the Warriors will have their defensive driving force back in the fold. Without his presence helping Andre Iguodala guard James and communicating on switches, the Warriors were unable to get the stops they needed to maintain a rhythm at both ends. Head coach Steve Kerr made no secret of his disappointment with how Golden State responded without him in Game 5, but conceded everyone is obviously better with Green on the floor.

Green felt he let teammates down regardless of whether he agreed with the decision, calling it “awful” that he missed the game and referring to himself as a “terrible teammate” for putting his guys in that situation.

“I owe it to my teammates to come back and give all that I have, all that I can do to better the situation,” Green said. “I have a strong belief that if I played Game 5 we win, but I didn’t because I put myself in a situation where I wasn’t able to play.”

Curry’s rough shooting night (8-for-21) compounded the issue, as did Harrison Barnes finishing 2-for-14 while playing 38 minutes, the most he’s played all series due to Green’s absence. Losing Andrew Bogut to a knee injury after just eight minutes of action didn’t help matters, throwing Kerr’s rotations further out of whack. Little went right for Golden State, spoiling what Curry felt would’ve been a dream ending where cameras would’ve memorably followed Green as he ran over from the Oakland Coliseum to celebrate a championship. Instead, the Warriors’ emotional leader will have to try and make up for the missed opportunity while reining in his temper since there would be dire circumstances if he’s whistled for another flagrant foul or two technicals.

“He knows that if he gets another flagrant he misses Game 7. He’s well aware of that so I’d be shocked if anything happened on that front,” said Kerr. “He feels bad enough as it is about missing Game 5. He’s not going to put himself at risk of missing another game.”

It’s imperative that he remains on the floor since Bogut has been ruled out for the next 6-to-8 weeks with a left knee sprain. It remains to be seen how Kerr chooses to start the game without his center, staying close to status quo by bumping up Festus Ezeli or going small right from the jump by leaving Iguodala in the starting lineup and putting Green as his primary big.

Whether they see it right from the onset or not, the Cavs are prepared to see Green at center when it matters most.

“Their money lineup is going small with Green at the five,” said Lue, “so there’s not really a big difference in preparing for that.

Although that lineup isn’t necessarily a lock to produce a fast pace since it’s among their top defensive group, the Warriors are 1-4 this postseason when held under 100 points, so they won’t shy away if the Cavs opt to get up and down on their home floor.

Depending on when and where you bet the total in Game 5, you could’ve won, lost or pushed. Most betting shops closed at 209 and that’s exactly where the score finished. The ‘over’ was definitely the right side since the score was knotted 61-61 at halftime, but 32 combined fourth-quarter points turned some expected winning tickets into losers.

Game 6 opened at 207 ½ and that number has held steady as of Wednesday, climbing to 208 at some spots. VegasInsider.com NBA Totals expert Chris David weighs in on Thursday’s matchup with his quick handicap.

“The Draymond Green effect not only played a factor defensively in Game 5 but his absence really screwed up Golden State offensively as they settled for too many jumpers. The Warriors took a series-high 42 attempts from 3-point land in Game 5 and only made 14 of them. As a team, Golden State shot 36 percent from the field and only scored 13 in the final quarter yet they still finished with 97 points,” said David. “Holding the Warriors under 100 points in a game doesn’t happen often. Including Game 5, the feat has only been accomplished 12 times this season.

“Looking back at the 11 situations, Golden State rebounded with an average score 118.4 points per game. In this year’s playoffs, the Warriors were held under the century mark three times and they posted 120, 104 and 108 in the next game, all victories as well. In case you’re wondering, Golden State has gone 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread after being held under 100 and the ‘over’ went 7-4 in those games. It’s hard to go against these seasonal trends and I’m going to buy Golden State’s team total ‘over’ 102 ½ in Game 6. I would lean to the game total going ‘over’ as well with the series wrapping up.”

The Cavs will likely do everything in their power to avoid getting bogged down, since they’re 0-3 in the series when failing to top the century mark. They’re 8-0 at home this postseason when topping 100 points and lost Game 4 108-97 the only time they didn’t.

On that note, Golden State has made an NBA-record 276 3-pointers during these playoffs, while Cleveland has made 242, now good for second all-time. This may very well be a situation where the team that strokes it best from beyond the arc survives. Normally you wouldn’t want to challenge the Warriors at their own game, but the Cavs have seen role players Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and Channing Frye find the range at home enough to trust they’ll hold their own.

Live by the 3, die by 3. Wish there was a total set on how many times you might here that old adage uttered on Thursday night because the over would be a lock.

The Cavs are looking to become the third team among the last 33 to have fallen behind 3-1 in an NBA Finals to force a Game 7. The 1951 Knicks and ’66 Lakers managed to force a deciding game. It hasn’t been done in 50 years. No NBA team has ever rallied to win it all after backing themselves into that corner.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 6 Props - Best Bets
June 15, 2016

Chris David: 8-3 (+1405)
Tony Mejia: 10-5 (+1080)
Kevin Rogers: 8-6 (+20)

Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 6 below.

Odds & Props provided by Sportsbook.ag

Chris David

2 Units – Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17 ½ (-115)

Harrison Barnes is a tough player to figure out and he’s been very inconsistent in this year’s playoffs but for whatever reason, he’s produced better numbers on the road versus Cleveland. In the first two road battles versus the Cavaliers, he combined for 29 points, rebounds and assists in Game 3 and a total of 24 in Game 4. He’s coming off his second worst shooting performance (2-of-14) of the playoffs in Game 5 and I believe he bounces back in this spot. For what it’s worth, Barnes averaged 15.3 PPG in the regular season in games played on Thursday, which was the highest daily average.

2 Units – Under Kevin Love Total Points+Rebounds 17 ½ (-105)

After putting up 17 points and 13 boards in the opener of this series, Kevin Love has fallen off the map due to the concussion injury and more importantly the matchup against Golden State. Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue knows he’s a liability defensively and his minutes have been limited, more now with the Warriors likely going even smaller with no Bogut. If the game gets out of hand, Love will be subbed out and could be watching his final game in Cleveland from the bench.

1 Unit – Richard Jefferson will make a 3-Point Field Goal (+180)

In the 14 playoff games that Jefferson has attempted a 3-point shot, he’s made at least one in nine of those games. Since my above prop is leaning to Love being replaced by Jefferson, I’m going to double-up and hope RJ hoists at least one or two from 3-point land. He’s shooting 41 percent from the playoffs and that’s a solid number to back, especially with a return close to 2/1 odds.

Kevin Rogers

2 Units - Under Draymond Green Total Points 15 (-115)

Green returns from his suspension, but struggled in both games at Quicken Loans Arena. In the two road games at Cleveland, Green scored a total of 15 points, while failing to hit a three-pointer in eight attempts. Green will make more of an impact defensively on James and should grab double-digit rebounds, but not score more than 15 points.

2 Units - Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17 ½ (-115)

For as bad as Green has been in Cleveland in this series, Barnes has been the opposite. The former UNC standout stunk in Game 5 by shooting 2-of-14 from the floor for 5 points, but averaged 16 points per game in two games at the Q. Barnes pulled down eight rebounds in each of those games, as he should have a nice bounce-back in Game 6.

1 Unit - Over Kyrie Irving Total Made Free Throws 3 ½ (-125)

Irving blew up for 41 points in Game 5, while attempting at least 24 shots in each of the last three games. After attempting 12 free throws in Game 1, Irving has been to the line only 10 times in the last four games. However, Irving is going to get plenty of opportunities to score and is an excellent free throw shooter, so if he can attack the basket in Game 6, the 'over' should cash.

Tony Mejia

2 Units – Over LeBron James Rebounds+Assists 19 ½ (-115)

After a dominant Game 5 on the glass in which he grabbed 16 boards, James isn't likely to surpass that number, but should break into double-digits in assists, surpassing his series average and likely notching a triple-double, win or lose.

1.5 Units – Over Stephen Curry Points 28 (-115)

After a brutal Game 3 where he wasn't mentally ready at the onset, Curry played his best, quieting critics as well as the Cleveland crowd. Expect him to at least match his regular-season average of 30 points here.

1.5 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Rebounds+Assists 10 ½ (-115)

Even with Draymond Green back, the Warriors should get plenty out of Andre Iguodala, who had 11 boards and six dimes in Game 5 and will again be involved in all facets off the bench.