The Bum's National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- NFL awarded Super Bowls to Atlanta-Miami-LA; two of those three cities are getting new stadiums, which is not a coincidence.

-- Nationals 7, Mets 4-- Matt Harvey wouldn't asnwer questions after game. Uh-oh.

-- Bengals' TE Tyler Eifert hurt his ankle in the Pro Bowl, had it operated on this week, may miss Cincinnati's season opener. What took so long?

-- BYU's football team has a tough September: Arizona, @ Utah, then UCLA, West Virginia at home. They also visit Michigan State, Boise State, Cincinnati later on.

-- 28 college football teams changed head coaches this year, 22% of all I-A teams.

-- Oklahoma City 118, Golden State 94-- Thunder go up 3-1; defending champs are in real trouble- they gave up 70+ points in first half of this game.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings.......

13) Under Armour, UCLA signed a 15-year, $280M apparel/shoe deal this week, which will make entitled athletes in football/basketball complain that they're not going to get a piece of that pie. They are getting a free college education, so there's that.

12) In a probably-related development, Pac-12 football teams will play fewer 10:30 kickoff games, in part so Under Armour brand can get more eastern exposure on TV.

11) Monday night in Miami, Logan Morrison took a marginal pitch for a strike and before the TV people could mute their field mikes, Morrison unleashed a string of obscenities against plate umpire Lance Barksdale. Good stuff.

10) Former NBA vet Kerry Kittles signed on as an assistant coach at Princeton.

9) ACC-Big 14 basketball challenge is a mere six months away; Michigan State-Duke is the premere matchup. UNC-Indiana, Ohio State-Virginia, Purdue-Louisville are some of the other featured games.

8) Devin Watson, who scored 20.3 ppg as a soph at San Francisco LY, transferred to San Diego State, where he will sit out this year, then play two more years. More good news for Steve Fisher; Malik Pope dropped out of the NBA Draft, will go back to school for another year. Decisions like that will mean a lot next winter.

7) Delaware Blue Hens finally hired a basketball coach, Notre Dame assistant coach Martin Inglesby, who has ties to the Philadelphia area. Plus Mike Brey used to be the Delaware coach, so that helps. Delaware has very few players; hiring a coach on May 24 is not the ideal way to run an athletic program.

6) Looking thru all-time college records today, noticed that Rams' QB Case Keenum holds I-A records for most career passing yards (19,217) and pssing TDs (217). it didn't prevent the Rams from spending a king's ransom on acquiring Jared Goff to take Keenum's job, but those records are still impressive.

5) Are there any phone booths left in this country? Was watching a movie the other night and someone ran to a phone booth to make a call, which automatically makes it a fairly old movie, I guess.

4) Was doing NFL research today; Carolina beat the Buccaneers twice LY, 37-23 and 38-10. Panthers scored nine TDs in the two games: two by the defense, with five of the seven TDs scored by the offense coming on drives of less than 50 yards.

3) NHL's Florida Panthers had 103 points this year, most they've ever had in their 23-year history, but they just fired their scouting dorector who had been with the team for 14 years, thru seven head coaches and five GMs. There is a battle there between the analytics people and the old school people, and analytics people are winning.

2) Long time ago, November 1993, I'm an assistant high school basketball coach, in my first year at this school, whose program was a mess. Our head coach is a great guy but he was in over his head at this job. After the second game of the year (we had won the first game), there were some attitude problems in the group.

Coach said something after that game that I've never forgotten: "So we lose a game and the rats start jumping off the ship", one of the all-time best quotes I've heard.

That is where the Warriors are now; their bandwagon is emptying quickly; nitwit media people have declared this series over, even though nine NBA teams have rallied from 3-1 deficits to win their series. Steve Kerr will probably rally his troops with an "us against the world" speech, since no one thinks Golden State can rally now.

We'll see.

1) White Sox TV voice Jason Benetti has an inspirational story; he was born with cerebral palsy, but never let that stop him. He went to college at Syracuse, then got his law degree from Wake Forest. He later joined ESPN and now has a job broadcasting ball in the major leagues, and he is very good at it. Good for him.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, May 25

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Wednesday's NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Raptors at Cavaliers
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The Raptors lost the first two games in Cleveland by an average of 25 points but they ignored the opinions of people saying they would be swept to post two impressive victories.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 199)

Series tied 2-2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are suddenly locked in a fierce battle in the Eastern Conference finals after once being in position to roll over the Toronto Raptors. Two victories by Toronto changed the complexion of the now-tied series, and it is a best-of-three competition when the series returns to Cleveland for Wednesday's Game 5.

The Raptors lost the first two games in Cleveland by an average of 25 points but they ignored the opinions of people saying they would be swept to post two impressive victories. "We've been playing with our backs against the wall," Toronto shooting guard DeMar DeRozan said at a press conference after scoring 32 points in Monday's 105-99 victory. "We never cared what anybody else thought. It was a challenge for us every single day. We've been counted out and we like that challenge." Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue didn't play ineffective power forward Kevin Love in the fourth quarter for the second consecutive contest but pinpointed his team's mistakes as the biggest factor in the Game 4 loss. "We came up short," Lue said in his postgame press conference. "We had a few defensive breakdowns that you can't have down the stretch of a game, especially in the playoffs, and they executed every time we made a mistake."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as 10-point home favorites against the Raptors for Game 5. The line was bumped up a half point early Tuesday morning to -10.5, which is where it sits at the time of publication of this preview. The total opened at 198 and was bumped up to 199 at the same time as the spread was moved. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (66-34, 52-48 ATS, 49-50-1 O/U): Getting a combined 67 points on 28-of-43 shooting from point guard Kyle Lowry (35) and DeRozan was huge for Toronto as the two All-Stars have both experienced some struggles in the postseason. "One thing about us, we can take the bad with the good any day," DeRozan said. "It's life, man. You can't get too down when things are not going your way, but you understand the work that you put in all summer, all throughout the season, for moments like this. You've got to be ready." The Raptors expect center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) to be ready for the first time in the series to team up with defensive dynamo Bismack Biyombo, who has averaged 20 rebounds and 3.5 blocked shots over the past two games.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (67-27, 44-47-3 ATS, 47-47 O/U): Love, who tweaked his knee in the second half, averaged just 6.5 points on 5-of-23 shooting in the two games in Toronto and has no explanation for his poor play. "I had a lot of great shots, I just didn't knock them down," Love told reporters. "It's as simple as that. I had a lot of confidence in shooting the ball, a lot of really wide open 3's, especially to start that first quarter. A number of them went in and out so I just need to continue to stay aggressive." Point guard Kyrie Irving bounced back with 26 points and suffering through a 3-of-19 shooting performance in Game 3 when he scored a series-low 13 points.

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 8-2 in Cavaliers last 10 Wednesday games.
* Home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Somewhat shockingly, at the time of publication of this preview, the Raptors are picking up 59 percent of the Consensus action. It seems as though #WeTheNorth is getting noticed a bit further south. As usual in the NBA Playoffs, Over is grabbing the majority of the total wagers at 61 percent.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 25


Toronto @ Cleveland

Game 717-718
May 25, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
120.704
Cleveland
134.377
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 13 1/2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 10 1/2
198 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-10 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, May 25

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TORONTO (66 - 34) at CLEVELAND (67 - 27) - 5/25/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 31-44 ATS (-17.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 51-65 ATS (-20.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 38-46 ATS (-12.6 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 7-7 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 7-7 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, May 25

Toronto at Cleveland, 8:35 ET
Toronto: 7-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog
Cleveland: 14-3 ATS after allowing 55 or more in the first half in 2 straight games




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, May 25

Toronto-Cleveland (2-2)
Home team has dominated series, winning all four games by average of 18 points. Over is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. Raptors lost last four games in Cleveland (0-3 vs spread in last three)- hosts won last seven series games. Four of last six Toronto games went over the total. Lowry/DeRozan went a combined 28-43 in Game 4, scoring 67 points; can they produce close to that in Cleveland? Cavaliers won/covered last four home games; this is a best-of-3 series now.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 3-5, over: 3-4-1




NBA

Wednesday, May 25

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Toronto is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

[StarDust Bum]

East Finals Game 5 Essentials
May 25, 2016

Eastern Conference - Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
Toronto at Cleveland (-10.5/199), 8:35 p.m. ET - ESPN
This will be the first Game 5 of Cleveland’s 2016 postseason.

They’re 0-1 coming off a loss, so the Cavs haven’t necessarily dealt with the adversity they have faced well, but they’re expecting a return home will help them stabilize themselves as they look to move one win from a return to the NBA Finals.

Despite the 2-2 tie, Sportsbook.ag has set the series prices at -1150 for favored Cleveland while enticing Toronto backers with a return of +700. The Cavs are favored by 10.5 in Game 5, while the total has been set at 199.

For Toronto, this will be the third Game 5 of its playoff run, but will also be a new experience since the first two came at Air Canada Centre. Their group won’t have much to reference from personal experience going forward since the organization is making their first appearance in a conference finals and only head coach Dwane Casey and backup point guard Cory Joseph have championship experience, but that hasn’t been a detriment over the past week.

The Raptors are figuring things out as they go, and have proven to be quite resilient in guaranteeing themselves at least a Game 6 in an East finals series where they fell by 50 combined points in the first two contests. Toronto is just 2-6 on the road thus far in the playoffs and was 24-17 in the regular season. The Raptors lost their only regular-season game at Quicken Loans Arena 122-100, so they’ve been outscored by an average of 24 points in three losses in Cleveland.

Of course, none of that really matters at this point. The Raptors find themselves in a situation no one expected they would be in, an upset away from a series lead over heavily favored Cleveland and just two away from a spot in the Finals as Eastern Conference champs. Although they’ve done nothing on the road, the All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan did figure things out at the Air Canada Centre against this group. Lowry scored 35 points on 14-for-20 shooting in Game 4 and averaged 27.5 points per game after scoring a total of 18 points on 8-for-28 shooting in his two outings in Cleveland, shooting 1-for-15 3-point range. If he’s his usual fearless self, Toronto will have a puncher’s chance. If he doubts himself, or needs to decompress, odds are good that the Raptors won’t have a chance.

DeRozan has actually been good in every game in the series. He averaged 20 points per game in Cleveland over the first two games, shooting nearly 50 percent from the field, then stepped his game up in Canada, shooting 26-for-47 (55 pct) while scoring 32 points in the Raptors wins. Despite limiting his game by staying primarily inside the 3-point line, he’s been able to get to the free-throw line while also setting himself up for easy looks.

Because he’s been such a catalyst and this game means so much, it wouldn’t be surprising to see LeBron James find himself defending DeRozan more than he has all series. Offensively, James hasn’t forced the issue at all, shooting 77.5 percent (38-for-49) while averaging 25 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists in the series, but after playing a postseason-high 46 minutes in Game 4, he’s ready to do whatever it takes to make sure the Cavs are playing in the NBA Finals next week.

“I’m comfortable playing him whatever he feels good (playing), I’m comfortable with,” head coach Tyronn Lue said Tuesday. “We talked about it before the game and the night before about how his body felt and wanting to play more minutes because we knew it was a big game for us, but it didn’t work out.”

Lineup combinations will be a major point of emphasis in this Game 5, since Kevin Love sat during the fourth quarter for the second straight game and was available despite ankle and possibly tweaking his knee after stepping on an official’s foot. He’s shot 5-for-23 over the last two games, including 3-for-11 from 3-point range, so Lue has gone with Channing Frye in key situations, preferring his height and more accurate shooting touch as opposed to going small and playing Love.

Bismack Biyombo has been the x-factor for the Raptors and has altered the course of the series with his rim protection. Tristan Thompson, considered Cleveland’s primary threat at the basket, has been outplayed by the 6-foot-10 center, who has come up with an average of 20 rebounds and 3.5 blocks over the last two games after grabbing just nine total boards over the course of the first two losses. His activity will be essential on the road.

Besides Love finding his range, the Cavs are hoping that being back home will guarantee Kyrie Irving being a positive factor in the series. He had 26 points and six assists in Game 4, but was just 3-for-19 in Saturday’s 99-84 loss, which came out of nowhere considering he’s averaged 26.5 points while shooting 59 percent from the field in leading the Cavs to a 2-0 lead.

As we anticipated coming in, James/DeRozan and Irving/Lowry is ultimately going to decide this series, but the first time, Toronto is going to take the court in Cleveland confident that they can hang with the Cavs. That could make all the difference.

[StarDust Bum]

Cavs lose series lead, aura to Raptors
May 24, 2016

INDEPENDENCE, Ohio (AP) Upon their return from Canada, the Cavaliers had nothing to declare at U.S. Customs.

Their lead in the Eastern Conference finals had already been confiscated.

Cleveland was stripped of its dominance and a 2-0 advantage during a long weekend in Toronto, where the growing-confident-by-the-shot Raptors, propelled by a crowd and city that believes they can make the NBA Finals, won two straight games.

''They flipped the script on us,'' Cavs coach Tyronn Lue said.

After being throttled by a combined 50 points in Games 1 and 2, the Raptors turned a series that began with blowouts into a best-of-3, winner-take-all slugfest. There wasn't supposed to be a Game 5, and now there will be a Game 6 as well.

Unable to contain Toronto All-Star guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan from scoring or keep Raptors super sub Bismack Biyombo off the boards, the Cavs have put themselves in a predicament.

Gone is their entire margin for error, some of their swagger and any aura of invincibility that surrounded them after reeling off 10 straight wins to open the postseason.

And as the teams prepared for Game 5 on Wednesday night, the pressure has swung back on superstar LeBron James and the Cavs, who spent Tuesday in film sessions breaking down went wrong during their visit to Toronto.

There was plenty to process from Monday's 105-99 loss.

Cleveland came out flat, falling behind by 16 in the first half and relying too much on its 3-point shooting, which has suddenly gone as cold as a Saskatchewan winter.

The Cavs fought their way back using a smaller lineup that didn't include the suddenly struggling Kevin Love, but they didn't have enough down the stretch as costly defensive lapses - and terrific shot-making by Lowry and DeRozan - helped the Raptors even the series.

No offense to rapper Drake and Toronto's rowdy fans, but Lue was happy to escape ''We The North.''

''Now it's our chance to come back, get some home cooked meals and have a chance to play in front of our home crowd,'' he said.

James, who logged 46 minutes in Game 4, did not speak to the media on Tuesday, choosing to stay far from the view of reporters and cameras.

Lue has carefully administered the four-time MVPs minutes during the second half of the regular season and playoffs, hoping to keep James as fresh as possible. James pushed himself harder in Game 4, and Lue said that was the plan.

''We talked about it before the game and the night before how his body felt and wanting to play more minutes because we knew it was a big game for us, but it didn't work out,'' Lue said.

James maximized his minutes in Game 4, scoring 29 on 11-of-16 shooting with nine rebounds and six assists. But he was somewhat passive in the fourth quarter, attempting just one shot in the final 5:28.

Again, Lue said that was by design as the Cavs took what the Raptors' defense gave them.

''LeBron knows when he has to take over a basketball game, but also knows he has to trust his teammates,'' Lue said.

James' faith in Love is being tested.

Cleveland's big man has lost his shooting touch at the worst time possible. After going 1-for-9 in Game 3, Love was only 4-of-14 in Game 4, and Lue left him on the bench in the fourth, playing Channing Frye instead.

Love's confidence appears shaken, but Lue insists there's nothing wrong that can't be fixed by the ball falling through the net.

''He's just missed shots. That's part of the game,'' Lue said. ''He's been playing great all playoffs and at some point you're going to miss some shots, but that's not our main concern, we gotta be better defensively and we're going to make shots.''

The Raptors have been daring the Cavs to launch from behind the arc. Without center Jonas Valanciunas, who could return in Game 5 from a sprained right ankle, Toronto gave up 106 inside points in the first two games before adjusting in Games 3 and 4 by packing the paint and forcing Cleveland to rely on its outside attack.

It was a risky move by coach Dwane Casey and his staff, but the strategy paid off and helped the Raptors reverse the series.

Casey has watched his young team survive a pair of knockout punches by the Cavs only to get up and deliver two of their own. They'll need at least another big one to stop James from getting to his sixth straight Finals.

After being counted out by many, the Raptors have a chance.

''It's a feel,'' Casey said. ''It's a rhythm. It's confidence. But I will say this: It's going to be a different animal back in Cleveland.''

[StarDust Bum]

SERIES AT A GLANCE

GAME 1
Raptors at Cavaliers
Tue, May 17 Final 84 to 115
Recaps

GAME 2
Raptors at Cavaliers
Thu, May 19 Final 89 to 108
Recaps

GAME 3
Cavaliers at Raptors
Sat, May 21 Final 84 to 99
Recaps

GAME 4
Cavaliers at Raptors
Mon, May 23 Final 99 to 105
Recaps

GAME 5
Raptors at Cavaliers
Wed, May 25 - 8:30PM EDT

GAME 6
Cavaliers at Raptors
Fri, May 27 - 8:30PM EDT

GAME 7
Raptors at Cavaliers
Sun, May 29 - 8:30PM EDT

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at CLE 08:30 PM

TOR +10.5

U 198.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Giants 4, Padres 3 (10)-- Giants are 9-0 against San Diego this season.

-- Vin Scully turned down a chance to call the All-Star Game in his final season as a broadcaster.

-- Jackie Bradley Jr's hitting streak is now at 29 games.

-- Indians 4, White Sox 3-- Chicago is now 4-11 in its last 15 games, leads Indians by only a half-game in AL Central.

-- Sharks 5, Blues 2-- St Louis made Stanley Cup finals in their first three years of existence (1967-70); they haven't been back since.

-- Cavaliers 116, Raptors 78-- Another uninteresting game. The average margin of victory in these five games has been 21.8 points.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) Wednesday was the deadline for NBA prospects to drop out of the draft and go back to school-- at least 45 players have done that. Dillon Brooks, Tyler Dorsey both went back to school, making Oregon a national title contender next winter.

12) Purdue gets big man Caleb Swanigan back for next year: "I'm going back to school. I feel I'm only a 2nd round pick and I can do better than that. I love Purdue.'' Boilermakers still need better guard play, but Swanigan's return is important.

11) Clemson also got very good news that Jaron Blossonggame will return to school; Littlejohn Coliseum was re-done last winter, so Brad Brownell will be on the hot seat to make the NCAAs next year. When boosters kick in a lot of money to refurbish an arena, they expect results. With Blossingame, Clemson can make the NCAAs.

10) USC appears to be the big loser Wednesday; they lost two starters, their point guard and center, despite thought that neither one will get drafted. Trojans were going to be a top 15 team if both kids came back. Now they're out of the top 25. .

9) Similar bad news at Seton Hall, after Isaiah Whitehead stayed in the draft- had he stayed in school, he would've been a preseason All-American, and Kevin Willard is a much smarter coach. Whitehead may or may not get picked in the first round.

8) Los Angeles Rams will travel 32,072 miles this coming season, most of any team; even without their London trip, Rams would travel 5th-most miles in league.

7) There are six teams who will travel less than 10,000 miles this year, all from the two north divisions-- Lions-Packers-Bears-Ravens-Browns-Steelers.

6) Memphis Grizzlies offered their coaching job to Miami assistant David Fizdale, who has been an NBA assistant for 14 years. Grizzlies are tough team to work for; in last four years, they've fired a coach who went 56-26, then a coach who went 42-40 despite using 28 players, the most players an NBA team has ever had in one season.

5) Odubel Herrera, Yasiel Puig were both benched this week for not running balls out. Herrera returned to the lineup and homered Wednesday afternoon.

4) Rougned Odor punched an opponent in the face 11 days ago; when does he get suspended? Baseball does this so badly; by the time he gets suspended, we'll forget what he got suspended for. For that fight, the suspension should've been immediate.

3) Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .214 this year and is hurt again; this is his 7th year in the major leagues- he's played more than 123 games twice. I look at the guy and I see a WWE wrestler; he is too damn bulked-up to play baseball. Yes I'm bitter because he has been on my fantasy team since he was an 18-year old in the Florida State League, but how can a guy like this have only one season with 90+ RBI?

2) Imagine how bitter you would be if you were paying Stanton's salary? The meat of his big-money deal doesn't start for two more years-- starting in 2018, Stanton will make an average of $31M a year for 11 years, from age 28 to 38. Oy.

1) Matt Harvey is 3-7, 6.08 this season; he's allowed 73 hits in 53.1 IP. No bueno.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, May 26

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Thursday's NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Thunder at Warriors
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Oklahoma City is the first team to post 72 points in the first half of back-to-back playoff games since the 1987 Los Angeles Lakers.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-7.5, 220)

Thunder lead series 3-1

The Oklahoma City Thunder have made the defending champion Golden State Warriors look like a lottery team in the last two games and are on the verge of advancing to the NBA Finals. The Warriors will try to stave off elimination and pull within 3-2 in the series when they host Game 5 on Thursday.

The Thunder have been more aggressive, more athletic, faster and much better at executing on both ends of the floor in 3 1/2 of the first four games of the series and scored 72 first-half points in each of the last two contests while winning both by an average of 26 points. “You’re not always going to play a perfect game,” Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “You have to have some resiliency and some toughness and some fight to you. I think our team has it.” The Warriors looking for some resiliency as they attempt to stay in the series and MVP Stephen Curry insisted that the team wasn’t done. "The series isn't over," Curry told reporters. "We've got to believe in ourselves. It's obviously frustration. It's a terrible feeling once again not stepping up and being ourselves and playing our game. But I think we're a special team. This isn't how we're going to go out."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 7.5-point favorites, with their backs against the wall for Game 5. The books dropped the line down to -7 on Wednesday morning and that is where it sits at the time of publication of this preview. The total opened at 221 and has dropped sharply down to 219.5 during the opening 12 hours on the board. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (66-31, 47-49-1 ATS, 46-51 O/U): Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been strong in the series, and Westbrook filled up the boxscore with his first triple-double of the postseason with 36 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in the 118-94 Game 4 triumph. “Russell plays with incredible passion,” Donovan told reporters. “He has such great force and great will. He’s a really high basketball IQ player. He sees a lot of things going on out there. His effort and his energy throughout the course of the entire game, with our team, was terrific.” Westbrook is averaging 27.3 points, 11.8 assists and 3.8 steals in the series.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (82-14, 53-41-2 ATS, 51-44-1 O/U): Curry had one burst in the third quarter of Game 2 that propelled Golden State to its lone win in the series but went 5-of-21 from 3-point range in the last two games and committed six turnovers in Game 4. The MVP could use more help from All-Star Draymond Green, who heard boos all night from Oklahoma City fans on Tuesday after avoiding a suspension for kicking Thunder center Steven Adams in the groin and matched Curry with six turnovers while going 1-of-7 from the floor. “I bring the energy to this team, and I have not been that," Green told reporters. “I think our energy goes as my energy goes, and I've been awful. ... At the end of the day, I know I've got to be better in Game 5.”

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Home team is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The early returns for the Consensus are 52 percent of the picks on the Thunder and 66 percent of the wagers on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 26


Oklahoma City @ Golden State

Game 719-720
May 26, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
132.175
Golden State
130.558
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+7 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 26

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OKLAHOMA CITY (66 - 31) at GOLDEN STATE (82 - 14) - 5/26/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-50 ATS (-19.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-39 ATS (-13.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-41 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 66-52 ATS (+8.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-40 ATS (+5.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-40 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 59-43 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 41-29 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 67-48 ATS (+14.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-6 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-6 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 26

Oklahoma City-Golden State (OC 3-1)
Thunder led 72-47/72-53 at half of last two games; Warriors have to defend better or this series is over. Home side won/covered last three games in this series; three of four games in series stayed under the total. Golden State is 9-5 in playoffs after going 73-9 during year; they won five of last six home games (4-2 vs spread). Thunder won/covered once in last six visits here; they won three of last four road games.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 4-5, over: 3-5-1




NBA

Thursday, May 26

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

Game 5 - Thunder at Warriors
May 25, 2016

Where have all of Billy Donovan’s critics gone? The first-year NBA head coach is only five wins away from becoming just the second coach to win a championship in college and pro basketball, an accomplishment that’s only been pulled off by Larry Brown at Kansas (1988) and with the Detroit Pistons (2004).

Donovan took a lot of criticism during the regular season when Oklahoma City appeared to clearly be a step (or two) behind San Antonio and Golden State in the Western Conference. Many pundits went so far as to say the two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida was in over his head as an NBA coach.

Well, Donovan is clearly pulling the right strings recently, as the Thunder have won seven of their last nine games, which have happened to come against the Spurs and Warriors. The last two victories over Golden State have come by 52 combined points.

The narrative for OKC in its previous playoff exits have centered around shot selection, poor decisions and Russell Westbrook not getting Kevin Durant the ball enough. Westbrook, a high-volume shooter who has spent his entire career being maligned for his score-first mentality as a point guard, is suddenly playing high-IQ basketball.

Hell, he’s even verbally discussing with the media how important it is for him to get others involved. Now that is a revelation and Billy D might have something to do with it.

Whatever the case, Oklahoma City (66-31 straight up, 47-49-1 against the spread) dealt out woodshed treatment to the defending champs for the second straight time in Tuesday’s 118-94 scalp as a 1.5-point home underdog. The 212 combined points fell ‘under’ the 221-point total in what was a gut-wrenching defeat for ‘over’ backers.

There were only 36 combined points scored in the fourth quarter. The Thunder alone scored 42 points in the second quarter. As I checked in-game lines during commercial breaks throughout the third stanza, the total was always in the 230s. Golden State had scored 26, 27 and 29 points in the first three quarters, only to be limited to 12 in the final 12 minutes for its lowest-scoring quarter of the entire season.

All five OKC starters scored in double figures. Westbrook was nothing short of sensational, recording a triple-double with 36 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists and four steals. Durant produced 26 points, 11 boards, four assists and four steals, while Serge Ibaka contributed 17 points, seven rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

Andre Roberson is averaging only 5.3 points and 5.0 rebounds per game in these playoffs, but he exploded in Game 4 for 17 points, 12 rebounds, five steals, two blocked shots and three assists without a turnover. Steven Adams finished with 11 points, seven boards, two assists, two steals and one block, while Dion Waiters had 10 points, three boards and three assists.

In the losing effort, Klay Thompson paced Golden State with 26 points, five rebounds and three steals. His hot shooting in the third quarter helped the Warriors slice a 17-point halftime deficit down to six at the 4:20 mark, but they would get no closer.

Steph Curry struggled mightily with more turnovers (six) than assists (five). The two-time MVP hit only 6-of-20 shots from the field and 2-of-10 from 3-point range. Curry finished with 19 points. The only other Warrior in double figures was Harrison Barnes with 11 points.

Draymond Green, believed by many to be the backbone of this team who always brings fire and intensity, was inexplicably absent for a second straight game. In Game 3, Green had six points, four rebounds, three assists and four turnovers while missing nine of his 10 shots from the field and registering a deplorable plus-minus ratio of -43.

The Michigan State product was equally inept in Game 4. Green made only 1-of-7 shots to leave him in a 2-for-16 shooting slump. He finished with six points, 11 rebounds, three steals, one block and two assists compared to six turnovers. To give you an idea of how dismal those numbers are, consider that Green is (even with his Games 3 and 4 stats included) still averaging 15.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 2.0 blocked shots and 1.6 steals per game in these playoffs. His assists-to-turnovers ratio was 81/27 before producing more giveaways than helpers in back-to-back tilts at OKC.

For Thursday’s Game 5 at Oracle Arena in Oakland, the Westgate SuperBook opened Golden State (82-14 SU, 53-41-2 ATS) as an eight-point favorite with a total of 221 points. Those numbers were sent out late Tuesday night after OKC’s blowout victory.

By Wednesday afternoon, however, the Warriors were favored by seven and the total was down to 220 points. Then by early Wednesday night, Golden State was back to being a 7.5-point ‘chalk.’ Gamblers can take the Thunder to win outright for a monster +275 return (risk $100 to win $275). For first-half wagers, Steve Kerr’s team is favored by five points with a 112.5-point tally. OKC is +240 on the money line for the first half.

These consecutive losses represent the first back-to-back defeats for Golden State since last year’s NBA Finals. While setting an NBA-record with 73 regular-season wins, the Warriors were a perfect 9-0 in bounce-back spots. Likewise, they had responded with three wins in their postseason games coming off a loss prior to Tuesday.

Trailing 3-1 in the series, Golden State is now the +250 underdog to win the series (risk $100 to win $250). OKC is the -300 favorite.

VegasInsider.com’s Kevin Rogers offered up these numbers for teams facing 3-1 deficits: “Nine teams in NBA history have overcome a 3-1 series deficit in the playoffs, as the Warriors are looking to become the 10th squad in this class. Seven of those nine clubs won Game 5 at home with the last team to accomplish this feat being the Rockets last season, who shocked the Clippers with three consecutive victories.”

Rogers continued, “Since 2013, five road teams have had the opportunity to close out a series with a 3-1 advantage, as the Clippers were the last team to fall in this category in 2015. Los Angeles was tripped up at Houston as three-point favorites in the conference semifinals before eventually melting down and getting knocked out. The last squad to win a Game 5 on the road with a 3-1 series lead was Washington in the 2014 opening round against Chicago, while road underdogs up 3-1 in a playoff series have posted a 3-1 ATS record in the last four postseasons.”

VI’s Chris David, who predicted OKC to win the series for a +400 return, was surprised when OKC was at -280 (risk $100 to win $33) for the series price early Wednesday morning. Since then, the number for Thunder has gone up to -300 as noted above.

David explained, “To put things in perspective, the Trail Blazers were 200/1 underdogs to the Warriors after facing a 3-1 series deficit in this year’s conference semifinals. It’s well understood that Portland isn’t on the same level as Golden State but most would agree that the Trail Blazers showed some fire while losing and the same can’t be said for the Warriors in their last two games.”

Golden State has won 46 of its 49 home games, compiling a 28-21 spread record. The Warriors have posted an 11-5 ATS record in 16 games as single-digit home favorites.

OKC owns a 28-20 SU record and a 22-26 ATS mark in its road assignments. The Thunder is 7-7 ATS with four outright wins in 14 games as a road underdog.

The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the four games in this series, with the ‘over’ making its lone appearance in Game 3. The ‘under’ went 2-1 in three regular-season meetings, so it is 5-2 in the seven head-to-head encounters between these West rivals this year.

The ‘over’ is 51-44-1 overall for the Warriors, 26-23 in their home contests. However, the ‘under’ is 5-3 in their eight home playoff games.

The ‘under’ is 51-46 overall for the Thunder, but the ‘over’ has hit at a 26-22 clip in their road outings. The ‘under’ is 4-3 in OKC’s seven postseason road assignments.

David had these thoughts on how the totals have gone in the West finals going into Game 5: “I thought the total outcome for Game 4 was going to be tight and it turned out to be a bad beat, which was directly attributed to Golden State’s offensive collapse in the fourth quarter (12 points). The ‘over’ (222) was the right side and after getting 125 points at the half, needing only 98 points in the final 24 minutes between this pair seemed like a formality. This was the second time in this series that we’ve seen Golden State have a horrendous final 12 minutes (Game 1) and threfore effort affect the game total as well. Including Tuesday’s result, the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 through the first four games but based on the droughts from the Warriors, the ‘over’ could easily be 3-1.”

David added, “Fast forward to Thursday and the total for Game 5 is hovering around 220 points and if you’re leaning to the high side in this game, then you better hope OKC stays off the free throw line. Normally, these freebies help ‘over’ bets but what it’s done is keep Golden State out of its rhythm. The Warriors can post 30-plus points in a quarter on any given night, but they’ve only managed to eclipse that mark five times in this series out of a possible 16 quarters while Oklahoma City has done so six times. The Thunder have combined for 251 points in their two blowout victories and over 25 percent (64) came from the charity stripe. Golden State has been able to control the flow better at home and I’d expect them to connect on Thursday.”

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Before Wednesday’s Game 5 of the East finals, Sportsbook.ag had Cleveland listed as the +125 favorite to win this year’s NBA Finals. OKC was at +130, followed by Golden State (4/1) and Toronto (30/1). The Raptors were at 200/1 going into Game 3 after losing in blowout fashion to the Cavs in the first two games.

-- Sportsbook has the following odds for players to win NBA Finals MVP honors. LeBron James is the +180 ‘chalk.’ The next-shortest odds belong to Durant (+220), Westbrook (+280), Curry (5/1), Kyrie Irving (8/1), Green (30/1), Kevin Love (30/1), Ibaka (40/1), Thompson (50/1), Adams (50/1), J.R. Smith (65/1), DeMar DeRozan (75/1), Waiters (100/1) and Tristan Thompson (100/1).

-- Sportsbook’s head oddsmaker Peter Childs provided VI with these potential series prices in the NBA Finals: OKC -130 vs. Cleveland, OKC -800 vs. Toronto, Golden State -300 vs. Cleveland and Golden State -1200 or higher vs. Toronto. Childs told VI, “Even though the Cavaliers would have home court in the finals and LeBron has owned Durant, I believe the Thunder are the better team and would make them a slight favorite here. If the Warriors overcome this deficit, I believe the gambling world would be that much more impressed with this team and that would warrant the higher prices versus the Cavaliers. If the Raptors advance, their only accomplishment would be beating an overrated Cavs team and that’s why they would be sizable ‘dogs in either matchup versus OKC or Golden State.”

-- According to a Wednesday report from the Chicago Sun-Times quoting an anonymous player, Chicago center Joakim Noah has informed teammates that he’s going to leave the Bulls via free agency this offseason. Noah has been a huge part of the organization’s success since coming into the league nine seasons ago. The University of Florida product is reportedly not on good terms with Chicago GM Gar Forman. Noah’s agent denied the accuracy of the report early Wednesday night.

-- Unless you’re a huge OKC fan, I would assume that most people would like to be able to see a Game 6 between the Thunder and Warriors this weekend. There is a huge bright side to the series ending Thursday night, however. It would signal that I don’t have to listen to Chris Weber’s voice and his unfathomably annoying analysis for a long time. And that would be GREAT!

[StarDust Bum]

Kerr: Warriors on brink but ready to rally
May 25, 2016

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Steve Kerr gave his Golden State players a much-needed mental day off with time to rest their weary bodies, and he got back to work trying to figure out how to save the season against a powerful Thunder team that shows no signs of slowing down.

Back to the basics, back to doing the little things that got the Warriors this far.

After a record 73 wins in the regular season, the Warriors are on the brink as they go into Game 5 of the Western Conference finals Thursday night in Oakland trailing the Thunder 3-1 after a second straight lopsided loss in Oklahoma City.

No denying it's a daunting task for the defending champs - especially given that MVP Stephen Curry is a far cry from being completely healthy.

''Well, it's a sense of reality staring us in the face. We're down 3-1,'' Kerr said Wednesday. ''Momentum can shift quickly in the playoffs. We've seen that the last couple years. Let's take care of business at home, get some momentum back and we've got a chance.''

All season long, the Warriors have taken the best efforts from every opponent. The just haven't shown the vulnerabilities that appeared the past two games in Oklahoma City, where Golden State lost back-to-back games for the first time during its record-setting season.

The flight home was hardly fun following Tuesday's 118-94 defeat.

''It was not festive. It was quiet,'' Kerr said.

The Warriors shot 41 percent and committed 21 turnovers that led to 18 Thunder points. Curry was 6 for 20 and missed eight of his 10 3-point attempts to score 19 points, sparking further talk that he's far from full strength. The unanimous MVP has dealt with ankle, knee and elbow injuries this postseason alone.

Kerr isn't about to put a percentage on his superstar's health.

''I don't do that. If he were struggling with anything, I would know,'' Kerr said. ''Nobody has said anything about Steph being 70 percent to me. Our training staff, relatives, friends, sources with knowledge of our team's thinking, nobody has told me he's 70 percent.''

Golden State will likely need a big night from Curry to get back in this.

Only nine teams in NBA history have rallied from being down 3-1 to win a postseason series, yet Kerr was quick to note, ''I'm guessing most of them weren't the defending champs.''

With the season on the line, first-year Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan expects the Warriors to bring their best while back in front of their home fans.

''Again, we have great respect for Golden State. We know how good of a team they are. You've got to get to a place after each game - what happened in the game, what do we need to get better, what do we do well, what are some changes or adjustments we need to make - and then you've got to move into the next one,'' Donovan said.

''I just don't believe that Game 5 is a continuation from Game 4. This is its own separate game and we're going to have to go now on the road to play in a very difficult environment against a great team.''

The Thunder know full well how close they are but also that nothing will be given to them easily. They last reached the NBA Finals in 2012, losing in five games to the Miami Heat.

Oklahoma City stole Game 1 on the Warriors' raucous home floor in Oracle Arena, where Golden State has lost just three times all season.

''Every game you have a sense of urgency, it's the playoffs and you know what everybody's playing for. We've just got to come out there and be who we are,'' Kevin Durant said. ''We can't put too much pressure on ourselves. We have to go out, play the game, and play with passion and energy. And we know the whole crowd's going to be against us and we have to stick together even more.''

The Thunder are playing with all the poise and passion on both ends, while the Warriors haven't been able to hang around the past two games, in part because of uncharacteristic miscues.

''They've had a lot of frustration over the years. They're healthy. They're whole. They are determined, and they want what we have,'' Kerr said. ''We have a banner hanging up in here and we take great pride in that. It's a hard thing to accomplish, and they've been close, but they haven't done it, and they're coming after us. They're really getting after it and playing well and competing. We've got to stand up to that.''

[StarDust Bum]

Warriors could join list of flopped teams
May 25, 2016

Despite finishing the regular season with a record-breaking 73 wins, the Golden State Warriors find themselves one game away from playoff elimination. Down 3-1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference finals after a 118-94 road loss Tuesday night, the defending NBA champions will have to win three straight games to advance. Golden State would join a list of dominant regular season teams that were eliminated without reaching the finals. Teams like the undefeated 2007 Patriots, who lost after advancing to the Super Bowl, were not included.

- NBA: 1993-94 Seattle SuperSonics

The Sonics had a league-best 63-19 record and the top seed in the West. Behind third-season head coach George Karl and All-Stars Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp, Seattle scored an average of 105.9 points per game. With the retirement of Michael Jordan prior to the 1993-1994 season, the Sonics were a favorite to win the championship. Facing the Denver Nuggets and Hall of Famer Dikembe Mutombo in the first round, the Sonics lost in five games. The Nuggets were the first eight seed to win a playoff series. They lost to the Utah Jazz in the next round.

- NHL: 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings finished with 62 wins and 131 points, breaking the regular season records set by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens. Under coach Scotty Bowman, the Red Wings had two separate streaks of nine wins and a 13-game unbeaten streak. Right wing Sergei Fedorov had a team-high 39 goals, followed by captain Steve Yzerman with 36. Colorado upset the Red Wings in six games in the conference finals, then went on to win the Stanley Cup.

- NFL: 1998 Minnesota Vikings

The 15-1 Vikings earned the top spot in the NFC Central and were only the third team in NFL history to win 15 games. Minnesota broke the then scoring record with 556 points, led by quarterback Randall Cunningham, wide receiver Cris Carter and rookie wide receiver Randy Moss. Moss and Carter combined for 29 touchdowns and each had over 1,000 yards receiving. John Randle had 10.5 sacks and anchored a defense that allowed only 296 points in the regular season. The team lost 30-27 to the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC championship. Kicker Gary Anderson - who had not missed a kick all season - missed a 38-yard field goal that would have iced the game for the Vikings, who lost in overtime.

- MLB: 2014 Los Angeles Angels

With a 98-64 record, the Angels were the best team in baseball during the 2014 regular season. Los Angeles was first in runs behind sluggers Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. The team also had starting pitcher Garrett Richards, but the Cy Young contender injured his knee in August and missed the remainder of the season. The Kansas City Royals stunned the Angels with a 3-0 sweep in the American League Division Series. Los Angeles' offense disappeared in the series, as the team batted just .170.

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This story has been corrected to show that the Red Wings scored 131 points during the 1995-96 regular season.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (719) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (720) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-26 21:05:00 - 2016-05-26 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 28 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+20.95 units)

NBA > (719) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (720) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-26 21:05:00 - 2016-05-26 21:05:00
Play ON OKLAHOMA CITY using money line in All games in all playoff games
The record is 10 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+12 units)

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NBA FIRST HALF

NBA > (719) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (720) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-26 21:05:00 - 2016-05-26 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE ?>in the first halfin All games versus the 1rst half line in home games
The record is 32 Wins and 16 Losses for the this season (+14.4 units)

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TOP POWERLINE

NBA > (719) OKLAHOMA CITY @ (720) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-26 21:05:00 - 2016-05-26 21:05:00
Line: OKLAHOMA CITY BTB PowerLine: OKLAHOMA CITY3
Edge On: OKLAHOMA CITY (10.5)

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, MAY 26

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OKC at GS 09:00 PM

GS -7.5

U 220.5