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Monday's Playoff Essentials
April 18, 2016
Indiana at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET - NBA TV
2015-16 Meetings
Oct 28, 2015 - Indiana 99 at Toronto 106 (Raptors -5.5, Over 200)
Dec 14, 2015 - Toronto 90 at Indiana 106 (Pacers -4.5, Under 200)
Mar 17, 2016 - Toronto 101 at Indiana 94 - OT (Raptors +1.5, Under 203.5)
Apr 8, 2016 - Indiana 98 at Toronto 111 (Raptors +5.5, Over 195)
Apr 16, 2016 - Indiana 100 at Toronto 90 (Pacers +7, Under 195)
The Pacers (46-37 SU, 43-40 ATS) opened action north of the border wanting to put some doubts in the Raptors (56-27 SU, 45-38 ATS) given their recent playoff history. Consider that mission accomplished, as Indiana walked out of Air Canada Centre with a 100-90 Game 1 win that extended Toronto’s playoff losing streak to seven games. Despite wrapping up its third consecutive Atlantic Division title with a franchise-record 56 victories, the Raptors face a must-win situation considering that they’ve already surrendered homecourt advantage and will play the next two in Indianapolis beginning Thursday.
Failing to win here would make life tough on head coach Dwane Casey, who is just 3-6 since joining the Raps after serving as a top assistant on Rick Carlisle’s staff for 2010-11 NBA Champion Dallas. Casey is the franchise’s all-time winningest coach, but there’s disappointment that his reputation as a great defensive mind has been unable to produce results when it matters most. The Wizards averaged 116 points over the last three contests of the 2015 playoffs in closing out Toronto, while the Pacers reached 100 on Saturday, scoring 30 in the fourth quarter and connecting on 11 3-pointers.
Paul George finished with 33 points and team-highs with six assists and four steals, so Casey is going to have to come up with answers to stop him from getting into a similar rhythm in Game 2. Monta Ellis came through with 15 points and five assists, while George Hill scored 10 and helped handle pressure and keep the ball movement. Off the bench, Solomon Hill and rookie Myles Turner, Indiana’s most recent first-round picks, combined for 23 points, seven rebounds and five blocks.
DeMar DeRozan (23.5 points per game) and Kyle Lowry (21.2 ppg), combined to shoot 8-for-32 (25 percent) in Game 1, which included going 1-for-10 from beyond the arc. Toronto shot 4-for-19 from 3-point range. No matter what Casey devises on the defensive end, the Raptors don’t have a prayer if their All-Star backcourt is going to perform as poorly as they did Saturday. Casey commented that it was the most tentative he'd seen his team play on the offensive end this entire season. The Raptors did win the rebounding battle by a 52-38 count, getting a franchise playoff-record 19 from Jonas Valanciunas, who kept possessions alive with 11 offensive boards.
The Raptors won three of four meetings from the Pacers this season, including both in Toronto, but those results are ancient history entering Monday. The Raptors are now 11-12 ATS record as a home favorite of nine points or less, but had won seven consecutive games (5-2 ATS) where they were favored prior to the Game 1 upset. Indiana is now an impressive 7-1 ATS mark this season as an underdog of six points or more. Indiana snapped a five-game losing streak in Toronto that dated back to March 1, 2013. The ‘under’ has prevailed in the last three Pacers games and three of the last four involving the Raptors.
Dallas at Oklahoma City, 8:05 p.m. ET - TNT
2015-16 Meetings
Nov 22, 2015 - Dallas 114 at Oklahoma City 117 (Mavs +3.5, Over 208.5)
Jan 13, 2016 - Dallas 89 at Oklahoma City 108 (Thunder -12.5, Under 207)
Jan 22, 2016 - Oklahoma City 109 at Dallas 106 (Mavs +6.5, Over 208)
Feb 24, 2016 - Oklahoma City 116 at Dallas 103 (Thunder -5.5, Over 215)
Apr 16, 2016 - Dallas 70 at Oklahoma City 108 (Thunder -12, Under 206)
While the Mavericks (42-41 SU, 44-38-1 ATS) knew they were in for a tough time against a full-strength Thunder squad on the road, Saturday’s 108-70 result provided a glaring reminder of just how tough the sledding is for the short-handed visitors. Oklahoma City led wire-to-wire, scoring the first nine points en route to winning the first three quarters by a 93-51 count. OKC took its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, resting regulars, but dominated at both ends of the floor over the first 36 minutes. In all, the 38-point win was the largest since the team moved to Oklahoma from Seattle and the 33 points surrendered at halftime set a new franchise defensive record.
Dallas shot a franchise playoff record-worst 29.8 percent from the field in the loss and didn’t have one of its primary catalysts, guard J.J. Barea, available for the second half due to a groin injury that is expected to keep him out of this one. He shot just 1-for-6, scoring 2 points in 16 minutes after often leading the team in scoring as one of the driving forces for the team’s playoff push down the stretch.
One of the few advantages Dallas figured to have in this series was with veteran Rick Carlisle pushing buttons against playoff newbie Billy Donovan, but without a healthy team, his hands appear tied. Deron Williams, who has also been nursing a number of ailments over the past few weeks, shot 1-for-9. He's considered doubtful here. Dirk Nowitzki (7-for-15), Justin Anderson (2-for-5) and JaVale McGee (1-for-1) were the only Mavs to shoot even 40 percent from the field. The rest of the team went a combined 15-for-63 (23.8 pct). Besides Barea, David Lee (foot) missed Game 1 and is considered a long shot to participate on Monday. Key forward Chandler Parsons, a versatile starter, was lost to a season-ending knee injury in mid-March.
OKC won the rebounding battle 56-33 and blocked six shots while Dallas swatted none, controlling every aspect of the contest. Bigs Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams combined to shoot 16-for-22, feeding off the attention the Mavs had to pay Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who combined for 47 points, 10 rebounds and 16 assists despite neither playing 30 minutes.
Oklahoma City (56-27 SU, 38-44-1 ATS) is now 5-0 against the Mavericks this season and is 33-9 at home (21-20-1 ATS). The Thunder have gone 19-2 as a double-digit home favorite this season and are now 11-10 ATS. Dallas has been a road underdog 33 times, going 17-15-1 ATS with 11 outright victories, but they’re now 2-5 against the number in the same double-digit road underdog role that awaits it tonight. The ‘under’ is now 44-39 overall for the Thunder, and has prevailed in 26 of their 42 home contests. The ‘under’ has cashed in 8 of the Mavs’ last 10 games.
Houston at Golden State, 10:35 PM EST - TNT
2015-16 Meetings
Oct 30, 2015 – Golden State 112 at Houston 92 (Warriors -1, Under 216.5)
Dec 31, 2015 – Golden State 114 at Houston 110 (Warriors +3.5, Over 211)
Feb 9, 2016 - Houston 110 at Golden State 123 (Rockets +13.5, Over 229)
Apr 16, 2016 - Houston 78 at Golden State 104 (Warriors -13, Under 224.5)
All eyes will be on the right ankle of soon-to-be back-to-back MVP Stephen Curry, who is officially listed as questionable after tweaking it in the second quarter while trying to get back on defense. He had his ankle re-taped at halftime but played less than three second-half minutes due to discomfort and then sat the rest of the way since the game was out of hand. While Curry said post-game that he expects to play, monitor his availability throughout the day to see if he’s undergoing his normal pre-game routines. Obviously, if developments arise that lead to him missing this Game 2, the point spread should be affected by at least 3-to-4 points.
Curry scored 24 points in less than 20 minutes of action on Saturday afternoon, getting his team off to a hot start by knocking down 5-of-7 from 3-point range. The rest of the Warriors were just 5-for-18 from beyond the arc, dominating instead by locking down defensively in holding Houston to just 35.7 percent shooting. Curry made just one 3-pointer less than the entire Rockets team despite taking 15 fewer attempts.
The Rockets committed 24 turnovers in a brutal performance. James Harden was the primary culprit with six and was a team-worst -27 when out on the floor. Dwight Howard turned it over five times, shot 4-for-11 from the free-throw line and was unable to get much done in the post against Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and the undersized Draymond Green. If Houston can’t get much done in the paint, they’re at the mercy of Golden State’s pace and aren’t likely to get the open looks necessary to hang with the NBA’s most efficient offensive team. The Rockets shot 6-for-22 from 3-point range as a group, while Harden missed 12 of his 19 attempts and failed to get to the free-throw line even once.
Golden State (74-9 SU, 46-35-2 ATS) eliminated Houston in last year’s Western Conference finals, so they came into this postseason with plenty of respect for a team that has fallen on hard times. Houston (41-42 SU, 37-46 ATS) finally reached the playoffs on the final night of the regular season after Utah left the door open due to its own collapse, but any thought that it might be able to capitalize on its late momentum and catch the Warriors basking in their newly minted place in NBA regular-season history went out the window during a 33-15 first quarter in which the champs never trailed.
Harden has a 37-point game against Golden State this season but has largely struggled, now shooting just 38 percent from the field against the Warriors through the three games he’s participated in. After coming in second to Curry in this year’s league scoring race, the Rockets star had to come into this series expecting that his team would only go as far as he’d be able to take them by matching Curry shot for shot. The inability to even get to the free-throw line and his struggles against the Dubs’ long wing defenders limited his effectiveness in the series opener, so we’ll see how he’s able to adjust.
Golden State is 2-1 (1-2 ATS) without Curry in the lineup this season, which includes a 114-110 win over Houston when he sat on Dec. 31. The Warriors are now 23-21 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In last year’s postseason, The Rockets are now 1-2 ATS and 0-3 straight up as a double-digit underdog, losing games by an average margin of 19 points.
April 18, 2016
Indiana at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET - NBA TV
2015-16 Meetings
Oct 28, 2015 - Indiana 99 at Toronto 106 (Raptors -5.5, Over 200)
Dec 14, 2015 - Toronto 90 at Indiana 106 (Pacers -4.5, Under 200)
Mar 17, 2016 - Toronto 101 at Indiana 94 - OT (Raptors +1.5, Under 203.5)
Apr 8, 2016 - Indiana 98 at Toronto 111 (Raptors +5.5, Over 195)
Apr 16, 2016 - Indiana 100 at Toronto 90 (Pacers +7, Under 195)
The Pacers (46-37 SU, 43-40 ATS) opened action north of the border wanting to put some doubts in the Raptors (56-27 SU, 45-38 ATS) given their recent playoff history. Consider that mission accomplished, as Indiana walked out of Air Canada Centre with a 100-90 Game 1 win that extended Toronto’s playoff losing streak to seven games. Despite wrapping up its third consecutive Atlantic Division title with a franchise-record 56 victories, the Raptors face a must-win situation considering that they’ve already surrendered homecourt advantage and will play the next two in Indianapolis beginning Thursday.
Failing to win here would make life tough on head coach Dwane Casey, who is just 3-6 since joining the Raps after serving as a top assistant on Rick Carlisle’s staff for 2010-11 NBA Champion Dallas. Casey is the franchise’s all-time winningest coach, but there’s disappointment that his reputation as a great defensive mind has been unable to produce results when it matters most. The Wizards averaged 116 points over the last three contests of the 2015 playoffs in closing out Toronto, while the Pacers reached 100 on Saturday, scoring 30 in the fourth quarter and connecting on 11 3-pointers.
Paul George finished with 33 points and team-highs with six assists and four steals, so Casey is going to have to come up with answers to stop him from getting into a similar rhythm in Game 2. Monta Ellis came through with 15 points and five assists, while George Hill scored 10 and helped handle pressure and keep the ball movement. Off the bench, Solomon Hill and rookie Myles Turner, Indiana’s most recent first-round picks, combined for 23 points, seven rebounds and five blocks.
DeMar DeRozan (23.5 points per game) and Kyle Lowry (21.2 ppg), combined to shoot 8-for-32 (25 percent) in Game 1, which included going 1-for-10 from beyond the arc. Toronto shot 4-for-19 from 3-point range. No matter what Casey devises on the defensive end, the Raptors don’t have a prayer if their All-Star backcourt is going to perform as poorly as they did Saturday. Casey commented that it was the most tentative he'd seen his team play on the offensive end this entire season. The Raptors did win the rebounding battle by a 52-38 count, getting a franchise playoff-record 19 from Jonas Valanciunas, who kept possessions alive with 11 offensive boards.
The Raptors won three of four meetings from the Pacers this season, including both in Toronto, but those results are ancient history entering Monday. The Raptors are now 11-12 ATS record as a home favorite of nine points or less, but had won seven consecutive games (5-2 ATS) where they were favored prior to the Game 1 upset. Indiana is now an impressive 7-1 ATS mark this season as an underdog of six points or more. Indiana snapped a five-game losing streak in Toronto that dated back to March 1, 2013. The ‘under’ has prevailed in the last three Pacers games and three of the last four involving the Raptors.
Dallas at Oklahoma City, 8:05 p.m. ET - TNT
2015-16 Meetings
Nov 22, 2015 - Dallas 114 at Oklahoma City 117 (Mavs +3.5, Over 208.5)
Jan 13, 2016 - Dallas 89 at Oklahoma City 108 (Thunder -12.5, Under 207)
Jan 22, 2016 - Oklahoma City 109 at Dallas 106 (Mavs +6.5, Over 208)
Feb 24, 2016 - Oklahoma City 116 at Dallas 103 (Thunder -5.5, Over 215)
Apr 16, 2016 - Dallas 70 at Oklahoma City 108 (Thunder -12, Under 206)
While the Mavericks (42-41 SU, 44-38-1 ATS) knew they were in for a tough time against a full-strength Thunder squad on the road, Saturday’s 108-70 result provided a glaring reminder of just how tough the sledding is for the short-handed visitors. Oklahoma City led wire-to-wire, scoring the first nine points en route to winning the first three quarters by a 93-51 count. OKC took its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, resting regulars, but dominated at both ends of the floor over the first 36 minutes. In all, the 38-point win was the largest since the team moved to Oklahoma from Seattle and the 33 points surrendered at halftime set a new franchise defensive record.
Dallas shot a franchise playoff record-worst 29.8 percent from the field in the loss and didn’t have one of its primary catalysts, guard J.J. Barea, available for the second half due to a groin injury that is expected to keep him out of this one. He shot just 1-for-6, scoring 2 points in 16 minutes after often leading the team in scoring as one of the driving forces for the team’s playoff push down the stretch.
One of the few advantages Dallas figured to have in this series was with veteran Rick Carlisle pushing buttons against playoff newbie Billy Donovan, but without a healthy team, his hands appear tied. Deron Williams, who has also been nursing a number of ailments over the past few weeks, shot 1-for-9. He's considered doubtful here. Dirk Nowitzki (7-for-15), Justin Anderson (2-for-5) and JaVale McGee (1-for-1) were the only Mavs to shoot even 40 percent from the field. The rest of the team went a combined 15-for-63 (23.8 pct). Besides Barea, David Lee (foot) missed Game 1 and is considered a long shot to participate on Monday. Key forward Chandler Parsons, a versatile starter, was lost to a season-ending knee injury in mid-March.
OKC won the rebounding battle 56-33 and blocked six shots while Dallas swatted none, controlling every aspect of the contest. Bigs Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams combined to shoot 16-for-22, feeding off the attention the Mavs had to pay Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who combined for 47 points, 10 rebounds and 16 assists despite neither playing 30 minutes.
Oklahoma City (56-27 SU, 38-44-1 ATS) is now 5-0 against the Mavericks this season and is 33-9 at home (21-20-1 ATS). The Thunder have gone 19-2 as a double-digit home favorite this season and are now 11-10 ATS. Dallas has been a road underdog 33 times, going 17-15-1 ATS with 11 outright victories, but they’re now 2-5 against the number in the same double-digit road underdog role that awaits it tonight. The ‘under’ is now 44-39 overall for the Thunder, and has prevailed in 26 of their 42 home contests. The ‘under’ has cashed in 8 of the Mavs’ last 10 games.
Houston at Golden State, 10:35 PM EST - TNT
2015-16 Meetings
Oct 30, 2015 – Golden State 112 at Houston 92 (Warriors -1, Under 216.5)
Dec 31, 2015 – Golden State 114 at Houston 110 (Warriors +3.5, Over 211)
Feb 9, 2016 - Houston 110 at Golden State 123 (Rockets +13.5, Over 229)
Apr 16, 2016 - Houston 78 at Golden State 104 (Warriors -13, Under 224.5)
All eyes will be on the right ankle of soon-to-be back-to-back MVP Stephen Curry, who is officially listed as questionable after tweaking it in the second quarter while trying to get back on defense. He had his ankle re-taped at halftime but played less than three second-half minutes due to discomfort and then sat the rest of the way since the game was out of hand. While Curry said post-game that he expects to play, monitor his availability throughout the day to see if he’s undergoing his normal pre-game routines. Obviously, if developments arise that lead to him missing this Game 2, the point spread should be affected by at least 3-to-4 points.
Curry scored 24 points in less than 20 minutes of action on Saturday afternoon, getting his team off to a hot start by knocking down 5-of-7 from 3-point range. The rest of the Warriors were just 5-for-18 from beyond the arc, dominating instead by locking down defensively in holding Houston to just 35.7 percent shooting. Curry made just one 3-pointer less than the entire Rockets team despite taking 15 fewer attempts.
The Rockets committed 24 turnovers in a brutal performance. James Harden was the primary culprit with six and was a team-worst -27 when out on the floor. Dwight Howard turned it over five times, shot 4-for-11 from the free-throw line and was unable to get much done in the post against Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and the undersized Draymond Green. If Houston can’t get much done in the paint, they’re at the mercy of Golden State’s pace and aren’t likely to get the open looks necessary to hang with the NBA’s most efficient offensive team. The Rockets shot 6-for-22 from 3-point range as a group, while Harden missed 12 of his 19 attempts and failed to get to the free-throw line even once.
Golden State (74-9 SU, 46-35-2 ATS) eliminated Houston in last year’s Western Conference finals, so they came into this postseason with plenty of respect for a team that has fallen on hard times. Houston (41-42 SU, 37-46 ATS) finally reached the playoffs on the final night of the regular season after Utah left the door open due to its own collapse, but any thought that it might be able to capitalize on its late momentum and catch the Warriors basking in their newly minted place in NBA regular-season history went out the window during a 33-15 first quarter in which the champs never trailed.
Harden has a 37-point game against Golden State this season but has largely struggled, now shooting just 38 percent from the field against the Warriors through the three games he’s participated in. After coming in second to Curry in this year’s league scoring race, the Rockets star had to come into this series expecting that his team would only go as far as he’d be able to take them by matching Curry shot for shot. The inability to even get to the free-throw line and his struggles against the Dubs’ long wing defenders limited his effectiveness in the series opener, so we’ll see how he’s able to adjust.
Golden State is 2-1 (1-2 ATS) without Curry in the lineup this season, which includes a 114-110 win over Houston when he sat on Dec. 31. The Warriors are now 23-21 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In last year’s postseason, The Rockets are now 1-2 ATS and 0-3 straight up as a double-digit underdog, losing games by an average margin of 19 points.
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