Tweet
Final Four Opening Line Report: Books weigh in on NCAA Tournament semifinals
Since the NCAA Tournament’s round of 64 began March 17, we’ve seen a flurry of 60 games in 11 days while watching the field whittled down to the Final Four. Now, there’s only one No. 1 seed standing, along with a pair of No. 2s and a stunning No. 10.
No. 10 Syracuse vs. No. 1 North Carolina (-9.5)
Syracuse is the odd man in and will face No. 1 North Carolina on one side of the bracket in next Saturday’s Final Four in Houston.
The Orange rallied from a 15-point second-half deficit against No. 1 Virginia to post a shocking 68-62 victory as an 8-point underdog in Sunday’s Midwest Region final. Trailing 54-39, the Orange (23-13 SU, 20-15 ATS) outscored the Cavaliers 29-8 over the final 9½ minutes.
Syracuse is the first No. 10 seed to reach the Final Four, and the Orange will be prohibitive underdogs to the Tar Heels, who opened as 9.5-point favorites.
North Carolina pulled away from No. 6 Notre Dame 88-74 as a 9.5-point chalk in Sunday’s East Region final. It was the ninth consecutive SU win for the Tar Heels (32-6 SU, 19-18-1 ATS), who are also on a 7-1 spread-covering streak.
Jay Kornegay, executive vice president for race and sports at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, told Covers that there wasn’t much debate on the opening line.
“We had a 9, a 10, a 9.5, so we were all really close. It wasn’t a long discussion,” Kornegay said. “I’m sure the public will be on the favorite. The guessing game is where the big money will come in at. The numbers are so good that you don’t see the big money sometimes.”
It’s a rare instance that an NCAA semifinal has a spread approaching double digits.
“It’s a pretty big number for a Final Four game, so I’d suspect we’ll see a little Syracuse money,” Kornegay said. “We think 9.5 is a good number for the sharps. If the public drives it up to double digits, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a bigger play on the underdog.”
The Golden Nugget didn’t post a number on Sunday night, but oddsmaker Aaron Kessler was a little surprised the early line wasn’t a little higher.
“Notre Dame is no worse than Syracuse, and North Carolina has been nothing but impressive at every stop,” Kessler said. “We’ll probably be on the high side of that number. I’ve got to anticipate a lot of public money on Carolina in this one.”
Kessler said he sees a lot of similarities between Notre Dame and Syracuse – which bodes well for the Tar Heels.
“It’s a good matchup for them, kind of like the Notre Dame game,” he said. “North Carolina is the bigger, stronger team, by a lot. Carolina’s just got great athletes at every position.”
John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.ag, shared concerns about the hefty underdog.
“I'm not sure how we're going to attract Syracuse money on this game,” Lester said. “The line will be inflated, and we'll still be heavily one-sided on North Carolina. The Tar Heels are as complete a team as we've seen in a while, and they can simply turn it on when needed, which you can't say about many NCAA teams in history. However, the Orange have been defying odds since the outset of the tourney. So why not one more time?”
No. 2 Villanova (-2) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
Villanova advanced with a 64-59 victory as a 2-point underdog against overall No. 1 seed Kansas in the South Region final Saturday. Oklahoma was a 1-point pup in Saturday’s West Region final against Oregon, but rolled to an 80-68 victory.
The ‘Cats (33-5 SU) are barely above water against the oddsmakers, at 19-17 ATS this season, though the Sooners (29-7 SU) are just 14-20 ATS, which rates 317th in the nation. However, this game is a rematch of a Dec. 7 regular-season meeting on a neutral floor in Hawaii, where the Sooners, catching 5 points, boat raced the Wildcats 78-55.
Kessler was a bit surprised with where the line sits at this point.
“Oklahoma has been a very public team this year, so I think Villanova’s upset of Kansas has already come into play,” Kessler said. “I tend to think the line might come down a little bit. I’m not sure we’ll see a flip, but I think it will go lower before it goes higher. If it goes up to 3, I’ll probably be in line!”
To Kessler’s point, the line actually did drop at Bookmaker.ag – but then it rebounded all the way to 2.5.
“Most of the action in the first half hour was on Oklahoma, but when we dropped Villanova from -1.5 to -1, we saw an influx of money on the favorite,” Lester said. “Some of the sharps were just waiting to see where the opener went, and once it was basically a pick 'em, they pounced on the Wildcats. We quickly moved to -2 and then -2.5.”
The matchup of No. 2 seeds is the more interesting one, according to Kornegay, who said the Superbook opened at Villanova -1.5 but has since moved to 2.
“I expect this one to be pretty solid, and the more popular game to wager on,” he said. “This is a more intriguing matchup. There’ll be support for both teams here.”
Since the NCAA Tournament’s round of 64 began March 17, we’ve seen a flurry of 60 games in 11 days while watching the field whittled down to the Final Four. Now, there’s only one No. 1 seed standing, along with a pair of No. 2s and a stunning No. 10.
No. 10 Syracuse vs. No. 1 North Carolina (-9.5)
Syracuse is the odd man in and will face No. 1 North Carolina on one side of the bracket in next Saturday’s Final Four in Houston.
The Orange rallied from a 15-point second-half deficit against No. 1 Virginia to post a shocking 68-62 victory as an 8-point underdog in Sunday’s Midwest Region final. Trailing 54-39, the Orange (23-13 SU, 20-15 ATS) outscored the Cavaliers 29-8 over the final 9½ minutes.
Syracuse is the first No. 10 seed to reach the Final Four, and the Orange will be prohibitive underdogs to the Tar Heels, who opened as 9.5-point favorites.
North Carolina pulled away from No. 6 Notre Dame 88-74 as a 9.5-point chalk in Sunday’s East Region final. It was the ninth consecutive SU win for the Tar Heels (32-6 SU, 19-18-1 ATS), who are also on a 7-1 spread-covering streak.
Jay Kornegay, executive vice president for race and sports at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, told Covers that there wasn’t much debate on the opening line.
“We had a 9, a 10, a 9.5, so we were all really close. It wasn’t a long discussion,” Kornegay said. “I’m sure the public will be on the favorite. The guessing game is where the big money will come in at. The numbers are so good that you don’t see the big money sometimes.”
It’s a rare instance that an NCAA semifinal has a spread approaching double digits.
“It’s a pretty big number for a Final Four game, so I’d suspect we’ll see a little Syracuse money,” Kornegay said. “We think 9.5 is a good number for the sharps. If the public drives it up to double digits, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a bigger play on the underdog.”
The Golden Nugget didn’t post a number on Sunday night, but oddsmaker Aaron Kessler was a little surprised the early line wasn’t a little higher.
“Notre Dame is no worse than Syracuse, and North Carolina has been nothing but impressive at every stop,” Kessler said. “We’ll probably be on the high side of that number. I’ve got to anticipate a lot of public money on Carolina in this one.”
Kessler said he sees a lot of similarities between Notre Dame and Syracuse – which bodes well for the Tar Heels.
“It’s a good matchup for them, kind of like the Notre Dame game,” he said. “North Carolina is the bigger, stronger team, by a lot. Carolina’s just got great athletes at every position.”
John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.ag, shared concerns about the hefty underdog.
“I'm not sure how we're going to attract Syracuse money on this game,” Lester said. “The line will be inflated, and we'll still be heavily one-sided on North Carolina. The Tar Heels are as complete a team as we've seen in a while, and they can simply turn it on when needed, which you can't say about many NCAA teams in history. However, the Orange have been defying odds since the outset of the tourney. So why not one more time?”
No. 2 Villanova (-2) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
Villanova advanced with a 64-59 victory as a 2-point underdog against overall No. 1 seed Kansas in the South Region final Saturday. Oklahoma was a 1-point pup in Saturday’s West Region final against Oregon, but rolled to an 80-68 victory.
The ‘Cats (33-5 SU) are barely above water against the oddsmakers, at 19-17 ATS this season, though the Sooners (29-7 SU) are just 14-20 ATS, which rates 317th in the nation. However, this game is a rematch of a Dec. 7 regular-season meeting on a neutral floor in Hawaii, where the Sooners, catching 5 points, boat raced the Wildcats 78-55.
Kessler was a bit surprised with where the line sits at this point.
“Oklahoma has been a very public team this year, so I think Villanova’s upset of Kansas has already come into play,” Kessler said. “I tend to think the line might come down a little bit. I’m not sure we’ll see a flip, but I think it will go lower before it goes higher. If it goes up to 3, I’ll probably be in line!”
To Kessler’s point, the line actually did drop at Bookmaker.ag – but then it rebounded all the way to 2.5.
“Most of the action in the first half hour was on Oklahoma, but when we dropped Villanova from -1.5 to -1, we saw an influx of money on the favorite,” Lester said. “Some of the sharps were just waiting to see where the opener went, and once it was basically a pick 'em, they pounced on the Wildcats. We quickly moved to -2 and then -2.5.”
The matchup of No. 2 seeds is the more interesting one, according to Kornegay, who said the Superbook opened at Villanova -1.5 but has since moved to 2.
“I expect this one to be pretty solid, and the more popular game to wager on,” he said. “This is a more intriguing matchup. There’ll be support for both teams here.”
Comment