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Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, February 28
Home side won last four Xavier-Seton Hall games; Musketeers lost by 9-8 points in two Big East visits here, but beat Pirates 84-76 at home on Jan 23. Xavier won nine of last ten games; they beat #1 Villanova in last game Wednesday; Musketeers won seven of last eight road tilts, losing at Crieghton. Seton Hall won seven of last eight games. Big East home teams are 7-9 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
UConn outscored Houston 28-8 over last 12:50 of 69-57 win Jan 17 in Texas; teams split four AAC meetings- Cougars lost 80-43 in only visit two years ago. Huskies won six of last eight games, winning last three at home, by 18-2-6 points. Houston won seven of its last nine games; they are 3-1 in last four road games, losing by 14 at Tulsa. AAC double digit home favorites are 7-15 against the s spread.
Duke won six of its last seven games, losing at Louisville in its last road game; Blue Devils won 80-65/79-65 in two ACC games vs Pittsburgh, which is 5-7 in its last dozen games, losing two of its last three at home- the win was over Wake Forest in double OT. ACC home teams are 11-7 vs spread in games where spread was 2 or less points. Duke is shooting 39.3% on arc in ACC tilts; Pitt is last in ACC in 3-point defense.
Valparaiso/Green Bay are locked into #1/4 seeds for Horizon tourney, so this is for pride; Valpo is 7-2 in last nine series games, winning 85-70 at home Jan 16, holding Phoenix to 32.4% from floor- they lost last two visits here, by 1-14 points. Crusaders won last four road games, winning in OT at Milwaukee Friday. Green Bay won its last five home games. Horizon home underdogs of 4+ points are 12-10 vs spread.
Michigan is 3-4 in its last seven games, losing last two on road by 10-4 points; they get 39.8% of points behind arc, 7th-most in country. Big 14 home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-7 vs spread. Wolverines lost 15 of last 17 games with Wisconsin- their 77-70 win here in '14 was first in last 10 visits to Madison. Badgers won nine of last 10 games, including last five at home, as they worked their way back onto the bubble.
Memphis lost eight of last 11 games after a 12-5 start; they're 2-3 in last five home games, where natives are restless. Tigers got swept by Tulsa LY, losing by 18 on road, by 2 in OT here. Tulsa won five of its last six games, but is 2-3 in last five road games- one of wins was at SMU. AAC home teams are 8-6 against the spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Tulsa is forcing turnovers 21% of time in conference play.
Arizona State lost last two games by 38-45 points; they trailed 44-10 at half in last game, so they have issues. ASU lost three of four visits to Boulder, losing by 9-6 points last two years- home side won six of eight series games. Colorado won seven in a row at home since losing its home opener by hoop to Utah; they upset Arizona here in last game. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 22-9 against the spread.
Nevada can tie for third in league with win here, but UNLV is #6- you want to play them first in MW tourney, in Vegas? Wolf Pack lost by 9 in Ft Collins Feb 6, after leading by 9 early in second half. Rams are 5-1 in last six series games, winning three of last four visits here. Nevada has improved a lot this year; they've won four of last five games, losing in OT at UNLV. Colorado State lost its last four road games, by 7-2-13-7 points. Mountain West home favorites of 4 or less points are 8-5.
Virginia Tech beat Wake Forest 93-91 at home Jan 13, with both teams scoring over 1.25 ppp; Wake lost despite going 13-25 on arc. Teams are 4-4 in last eight series games, with last three decided by total of 5 points; Hokies lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. Deacons are 1-12 in last 13 games; they get leading scorer Thomas (suspension) back here. ACC hosts are 11-7 vs spread in games where spread was 2 or less.
California won its last six games, five by 12+ points; they're 8-0 at home in Pac-12, beating Oregon/Arizona/Utah here. Home side won last five USC-Cal games; Trojans lost last four visits to Berkeley, by 4-8-1-13 points. USC lost four of last five games after an 18-5 start, getting beat by 20 at Stanford last game; Trojans' only Pac-12 road win outside of LA was Jan 1, at Wazzu. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 22-9.
Oregon won eight of last ten games; they're 8-0 at home in Pac-12, with last five home wins all by 10+ points. Washington lost its last five visits here, by 5-25-5-7-4 points. Huskies lost five of last six games after 15-7 start; they've lost last four road games, giving up 87.8 ppg. Washington is 5th-least experienced team in country- it has begun to show. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 8-4 against the spread.
Tennessee State is 5-5 in its last ten games after a 14-4 start; they lost at Belmont 103-95 in first meeting- Belmont shot 71% inside arc, scored 1.27 ppp. Bruins are 6-1 in OVC series games, winning by 31-6 points in three visits here. State is 19-9 after being 10-51 last two years; this is Senior Day for them. OVC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 6-10 vs spread. Young Belmont team lost two of its last three road games.
Iowa lost three of last four games after a 19-4 start; they've lost three of last four on road, with only win at Illinois. Hawkeyes won three of last four games with Ohio State, winning by 10-6 points in last two visits here. Buckeyes won four of last five games, beating stiff teams; they've split last four home games, are now without Jae'Sean Tate for season, a big loss. Big 14 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 4-10 vs spread.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, February 28
Home side won last four Xavier-Seton Hall games; Musketeers lost by 9-8 points in two Big East visits here, but beat Pirates 84-76 at home on Jan 23. Xavier won nine of last ten games; they beat #1 Villanova in last game Wednesday; Musketeers won seven of last eight road tilts, losing at Crieghton. Seton Hall won seven of last eight games. Big East home teams are 7-9 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
UConn outscored Houston 28-8 over last 12:50 of 69-57 win Jan 17 in Texas; teams split four AAC meetings- Cougars lost 80-43 in only visit two years ago. Huskies won six of last eight games, winning last three at home, by 18-2-6 points. Houston won seven of its last nine games; they are 3-1 in last four road games, losing by 14 at Tulsa. AAC double digit home favorites are 7-15 against the s spread.
Duke won six of its last seven games, losing at Louisville in its last road game; Blue Devils won 80-65/79-65 in two ACC games vs Pittsburgh, which is 5-7 in its last dozen games, losing two of its last three at home- the win was over Wake Forest in double OT. ACC home teams are 11-7 vs spread in games where spread was 2 or less points. Duke is shooting 39.3% on arc in ACC tilts; Pitt is last in ACC in 3-point defense.
Valparaiso/Green Bay are locked into #1/4 seeds for Horizon tourney, so this is for pride; Valpo is 7-2 in last nine series games, winning 85-70 at home Jan 16, holding Phoenix to 32.4% from floor- they lost last two visits here, by 1-14 points. Crusaders won last four road games, winning in OT at Milwaukee Friday. Green Bay won its last five home games. Horizon home underdogs of 4+ points are 12-10 vs spread.
Michigan is 3-4 in its last seven games, losing last two on road by 10-4 points; they get 39.8% of points behind arc, 7th-most in country. Big 14 home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-7 vs spread. Wolverines lost 15 of last 17 games with Wisconsin- their 77-70 win here in '14 was first in last 10 visits to Madison. Badgers won nine of last 10 games, including last five at home, as they worked their way back onto the bubble.
Memphis lost eight of last 11 games after a 12-5 start; they're 2-3 in last five home games, where natives are restless. Tigers got swept by Tulsa LY, losing by 18 on road, by 2 in OT here. Tulsa won five of its last six games, but is 2-3 in last five road games- one of wins was at SMU. AAC home teams are 8-6 against the spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Tulsa is forcing turnovers 21% of time in conference play.
Arizona State lost last two games by 38-45 points; they trailed 44-10 at half in last game, so they have issues. ASU lost three of four visits to Boulder, losing by 9-6 points last two years- home side won six of eight series games. Colorado won seven in a row at home since losing its home opener by hoop to Utah; they upset Arizona here in last game. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 22-9 against the spread.
Nevada can tie for third in league with win here, but UNLV is #6- you want to play them first in MW tourney, in Vegas? Wolf Pack lost by 9 in Ft Collins Feb 6, after leading by 9 early in second half. Rams are 5-1 in last six series games, winning three of last four visits here. Nevada has improved a lot this year; they've won four of last five games, losing in OT at UNLV. Colorado State lost its last four road games, by 7-2-13-7 points. Mountain West home favorites of 4 or less points are 8-5.
Virginia Tech beat Wake Forest 93-91 at home Jan 13, with both teams scoring over 1.25 ppp; Wake lost despite going 13-25 on arc. Teams are 4-4 in last eight series games, with last three decided by total of 5 points; Hokies lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. Deacons are 1-12 in last 13 games; they get leading scorer Thomas (suspension) back here. ACC hosts are 11-7 vs spread in games where spread was 2 or less.
California won its last six games, five by 12+ points; they're 8-0 at home in Pac-12, beating Oregon/Arizona/Utah here. Home side won last five USC-Cal games; Trojans lost last four visits to Berkeley, by 4-8-1-13 points. USC lost four of last five games after an 18-5 start, getting beat by 20 at Stanford last game; Trojans' only Pac-12 road win outside of LA was Jan 1, at Wazzu. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 22-9.
Oregon won eight of last ten games; they're 8-0 at home in Pac-12, with last five home wins all by 10+ points. Washington lost its last five visits here, by 5-25-5-7-4 points. Huskies lost five of last six games after 15-7 start; they've lost last four road games, giving up 87.8 ppg. Washington is 5th-least experienced team in country- it has begun to show. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 8-4 against the spread.
Tennessee State is 5-5 in its last ten games after a 14-4 start; they lost at Belmont 103-95 in first meeting- Belmont shot 71% inside arc, scored 1.27 ppp. Bruins are 6-1 in OVC series games, winning by 31-6 points in three visits here. State is 19-9 after being 10-51 last two years; this is Senior Day for them. OVC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 6-10 vs spread. Young Belmont team lost two of its last three road games.
Iowa lost three of last four games after a 19-4 start; they've lost three of last four on road, with only win at Illinois. Hawkeyes won three of last four games with Ohio State, winning by 10-6 points in last two visits here. Buckeyes won four of last five games, beating stiff teams; they've split last four home games, are now without Jae'Sean Tate for season, a big loss. Big 14 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 4-10 vs spread.
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