Wednesday's Top 25 Trends
February 16, 2016
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 17
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
Dayton
Overall: 21-3 SU, 12-10-1 ATS
Atlantic 10: 11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS
Totals: 9-13-1 O/U
St. Joseph's
Overall: 21-4 SU, 17-6-1 ATS
Atlantic 10: 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS
Totals: 12-11-1 O/U
(15) Dayton at St. Joseph's (CBSSN, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Two of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 hook up for a huge showdown in Philadelphia. The Flyers are riding a nine-game winning streak after holding off Rhode Island on Friday night, 68-66. Dayton has won four straight road contests since losing at La Salle as 12-point favorites on January 9, while looking to snap a four-game skid at St. Joe’s dating back to 2010. The Hawks are red-hot of late by winning 10 of their past 11 contests, while covering nine times in this stretch. St. Joe’s are riding a four-game ‘over’ streak, as the Hawks have topped the 82-point mark in three consecutive trips to the court.
Dayton 75
St. Joseph's 78
Iowa
Overall: 20-5 SU, 13-9 ATS
Big 10: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS
Totals: 12-10 O/U
Penn State
Overall: 12-13 SU, 11-12-1 ATS
Big 10: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS
Totals: 11-13 O/U
(4) Iowa at Penn State (BTN, 6:30 p.m. ET)
The Hawkeyes sit alone atop the Big 10 with an 11-2 record after sneaking past Minnesota as 19 ½-point favorites on Sunday, 75-71. Iowa owns a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS record as a road favorite this season, including a 77-65 victory at Illinois on February 11 as 7 ½-point favorites. Iowa goes for the season sweep of Penn State after dominating the Nittany Lions two weeks ago, 73-49 as 15 ½-point home favorites. PSU has dropped five of its last six games, but won and covered in its last opportunity as a home underdog against Indiana on February 6 in a five-point victory.
Iowa 72
Penn State 63
Syracuse
Overall: 18-8 SU, 13-12 ATS
ACC: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
Totals: 13-12 O/U
Louisville
Overall: 19-6 SU, 10-11 ATS
ACC: 8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS
Totals: 8-12-1 O/U
Syracuse at (18) Louisville (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Orange is surging towards the NCAA Tournament following a five-game winning streak. Four of those five victories came at the Carrier Dome with the latest win coming at Boston College, who owns an 0-12 ACC record. The Cardinals have gone backwards of late by dropping consecutive games at Duke and Notre Dame to fall to 8-4 in the ACC. Louisville has cashed the ‘under’ in five straight contests, while going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home in conference action. Syracuse is making its first trip to Louisville since 2013 when the Orange pulled out a 70-68 triumph as seven-point underdogs.
Syracuse 71
Louisville 75
Providence
Overall: 19-7 SU, 13-12 ATS
Big East: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS
Totals: 15-10 O/U
Xavier
Overall: 22-3 SU, 15-10 ATS
Big East: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS
Totals: 14-11 O/U
(23) Providence at (8) Xavier (FS1, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Providence snapped a three-game losing streak against Georgetown, but the Friars blew a 26-point lead in a 75-72 victory as four-point favorites. The Friars own a 1-5 ATS record the last six games, which includes a 75-68 home loss to Xavier last month. The Musketeers bounced back from an ugly loss at Creighton to rout Butler on Saturday, 74-57 as 3 ½-point underdogs. Xavier has won five of six conference home games, but is 0-4 ATS the last four as a favorite at the Cintas Center. Five of the past six home contests have sailed ‘over’ the total for Xavier, while scoring at least 84 points five times in this span.
Providence 77
Xavier 80
Villanova
Overall: 22-3 SU, 12-11-1 ATS
Big East: 12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS
Totals: 9-14-1 O/U
Temple
Overall: 16-8 SU, 13-9 ATS
Atlantic 10: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS
Totals: 12-9-1 O/U
(1) Villanova at Temple (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Villanova remains the top team in the country for the second straight week as the Wildcats play their final game against a Big Five rival. ‘Nova crushed St. Joe’s, Pennsylvania, and La Salle already, while coming off a 73-63 victory over St. John’s on Saturday as a hefty 26 ½-point favorite. The Owls have lost each of the last two meetings with the Wildcats, including a 23-point setback last season as 16 ½-point ‘dogs. Temple has won five consecutive games since losing at East Carolina, while posting an impressive 8-2 ATS record this season in the underdog role.
Villanova 65
Temple 60
Nebraska
Overall: 14-12 SU, 13-8 ATS
Big 10: 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS
Totals: 14-6-1 O/U
Indiana
Overall: 20-6 SU, 13-13 ATS
Big 10: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS
Totals: 13-13 O/U
Nebraska at (22) Indiana (BTN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Indiana has yet to lose a home game this season, compiling a perfect 14-0 record at Assembly Hall, while covering four of its last five in Bloomington. The Hoosiers were steamrolled at Michigan State on Sunday, 88-69 as seven-point underdogs to allow their most points since a 94-74 setback at Duke in December. IU cruised past Nebraska in their first matchup in Lincoln, 79-69 in January, while finishing ‘under’ the total for the fifth straight meeting since 2013. The Huskers have stumbled to a 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS record since a four-game winning streak in January, including double-digit road losses to Wisconsin and Purdue.
Nebraska 71
Indiana 78
Oklahoma
Overall: 20-4 SU, 10-12 ATS
Big 12: 8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS
Totals: 13-9 O/U
Texas Tech
Overall: 15-9 SU, 11-10 ATS
Big 12: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Totals: 11-10 O/U
(3) Oklahoma at Texas Tech (ESPNU, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Sooners have dropped two of their last three games, including Saturday’s 76-72 home defeat to Kansas. Oklahoma has posted a 3-9 ATS record the last 12 games, including a 1-4 ATS mark away from Norman. The Sooners hope to turn things around while going for the season sweep of Texas Tech after demolishing the Red Raiders in Norman, 91-67 last month. Texas Tech has been the epitome of an up-and-down team in Big 12 play, losing four of five games prior to outright underdog wins over Iowa State and Baylor. The Red Raiders have lost three of five home conference contests with both victories coming in overtime against Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma 78
Texas Tech 72
Virginia Tech
Overall: 13-12 SU, 11-8 ATS
ACC: 5-7 SU, 9-3 ATS
Totals: 10-8-1 O/U
Miami, FL
Overall: 20-4 SU, 14-8-1 ATS
ACC: 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS
Totals: 11-12 O/U
Virginia Tech at (11) Miami, FL (ESPN3, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Hurricanes are creeping closer to the top of the ACC standings following a four-game winning streak. Miami trails North Carolina by one game for first place in the conference after picking up its second straight two-point victory by holding off rival Florida State on Sunday. The ‘Canes own a perfect 6-0 home conference mark, while posting a 4-1-1 ATS ledger in these games. The Hokies have been one of the top ATS teams in conference play with a 9-3 ATS record, but Virginia Tech has lost six times in the last seven trips to the court. VT has won just once in six ACC road games, while putting together a 1-3 ATS mark as a double-digit away ‘dog.
Virginia Tech 66
Miami, FL 78
Duke
Overall: 19-6 SU, 11-12-1 ATS
ACC: 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS
Totals: 12-12 O/U
North Carolina
Overall: 21-4 SU, 10-14-1 ATS
ACC: 10-2 SU, 4-8 ATS
Totals: 14-11 O/U
(20) Duke at (5) North Carolina (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Blue Devils swept their rivals last season, including a 84-77 triumph at Chapel Hill last March. Duke has come back to life following a 1-4 SU/ATS run to close January by winning four straight, including Saturday’s buzzer-beating victory over Virginia. The Blue Devils have won four of six road games against ACC foes, but all four victories came against the bottom four teams in the conference (Boston College, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and N.C. State). The Tar Heels have won back-to-back games since consecutive losses, as UNC dominated Pittsburgh, 85-64 as 10 ½-point favorites on Sunday. North Carolina has cashed the ‘under’ in seven of its last eight games, while posting a 2-4 ATS mark in home conference action.
Duke 75
North Carolina 80
Arizona State
Overall: 14-12 SU, 12-12-1 ATS
Pac-12: 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
Totals: 15-9 O/U
Arizona
Overall: 21-5 SU, 14-12 ATS
Pac-12: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS
Totals: 17-9 O/U
Arizona State at (12) Arizona (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats have rebounded nicely since losing at home to Oregon in late January by winning five straight games. Arizona pulled off a sweep of the Los Angeles teams at home (UCLA and USC) this past weekend, but failed to cover in each win. The Wildcats took care of the Sun Devils in the Pac-12 opener in Tempe, 94-82, while Arizona has won five straight home matchups with Arizona State since 2011. ASU lost its first five conference road games before beating Washington State earlier this month, 67-55. The Sun Devils are listed as a double-digit underdog for just the second time this season after losing at Kentucky in December, 72-58 as 13-point ‘dogs.
Arizona State 69
Arizona 79
February 16, 2016
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 17
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
Dayton
Overall: 21-3 SU, 12-10-1 ATS
Atlantic 10: 11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS
Totals: 9-13-1 O/U
St. Joseph's
Overall: 21-4 SU, 17-6-1 ATS
Atlantic 10: 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS
Totals: 12-11-1 O/U
(15) Dayton at St. Joseph's (CBSSN, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Two of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 hook up for a huge showdown in Philadelphia. The Flyers are riding a nine-game winning streak after holding off Rhode Island on Friday night, 68-66. Dayton has won four straight road contests since losing at La Salle as 12-point favorites on January 9, while looking to snap a four-game skid at St. Joe’s dating back to 2010. The Hawks are red-hot of late by winning 10 of their past 11 contests, while covering nine times in this stretch. St. Joe’s are riding a four-game ‘over’ streak, as the Hawks have topped the 82-point mark in three consecutive trips to the court.
Dayton 75
St. Joseph's 78
Iowa
Overall: 20-5 SU, 13-9 ATS
Big 10: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS
Totals: 12-10 O/U
Penn State
Overall: 12-13 SU, 11-12-1 ATS
Big 10: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS
Totals: 11-13 O/U
(4) Iowa at Penn State (BTN, 6:30 p.m. ET)
The Hawkeyes sit alone atop the Big 10 with an 11-2 record after sneaking past Minnesota as 19 ½-point favorites on Sunday, 75-71. Iowa owns a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS record as a road favorite this season, including a 77-65 victory at Illinois on February 11 as 7 ½-point favorites. Iowa goes for the season sweep of Penn State after dominating the Nittany Lions two weeks ago, 73-49 as 15 ½-point home favorites. PSU has dropped five of its last six games, but won and covered in its last opportunity as a home underdog against Indiana on February 6 in a five-point victory.
Iowa 72
Penn State 63
Syracuse
Overall: 18-8 SU, 13-12 ATS
ACC: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
Totals: 13-12 O/U
Louisville
Overall: 19-6 SU, 10-11 ATS
ACC: 8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS
Totals: 8-12-1 O/U
Syracuse at (18) Louisville (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Orange is surging towards the NCAA Tournament following a five-game winning streak. Four of those five victories came at the Carrier Dome with the latest win coming at Boston College, who owns an 0-12 ACC record. The Cardinals have gone backwards of late by dropping consecutive games at Duke and Notre Dame to fall to 8-4 in the ACC. Louisville has cashed the ‘under’ in five straight contests, while going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home in conference action. Syracuse is making its first trip to Louisville since 2013 when the Orange pulled out a 70-68 triumph as seven-point underdogs.
Syracuse 71
Louisville 75
Providence
Overall: 19-7 SU, 13-12 ATS
Big East: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS
Totals: 15-10 O/U
Xavier
Overall: 22-3 SU, 15-10 ATS
Big East: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS
Totals: 14-11 O/U
(23) Providence at (8) Xavier (FS1, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Providence snapped a three-game losing streak against Georgetown, but the Friars blew a 26-point lead in a 75-72 victory as four-point favorites. The Friars own a 1-5 ATS record the last six games, which includes a 75-68 home loss to Xavier last month. The Musketeers bounced back from an ugly loss at Creighton to rout Butler on Saturday, 74-57 as 3 ½-point underdogs. Xavier has won five of six conference home games, but is 0-4 ATS the last four as a favorite at the Cintas Center. Five of the past six home contests have sailed ‘over’ the total for Xavier, while scoring at least 84 points five times in this span.
Providence 77
Xavier 80
Villanova
Overall: 22-3 SU, 12-11-1 ATS
Big East: 12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS
Totals: 9-14-1 O/U
Temple
Overall: 16-8 SU, 13-9 ATS
Atlantic 10: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS
Totals: 12-9-1 O/U
(1) Villanova at Temple (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Villanova remains the top team in the country for the second straight week as the Wildcats play their final game against a Big Five rival. ‘Nova crushed St. Joe’s, Pennsylvania, and La Salle already, while coming off a 73-63 victory over St. John’s on Saturday as a hefty 26 ½-point favorite. The Owls have lost each of the last two meetings with the Wildcats, including a 23-point setback last season as 16 ½-point ‘dogs. Temple has won five consecutive games since losing at East Carolina, while posting an impressive 8-2 ATS record this season in the underdog role.
Villanova 65
Temple 60
Nebraska
Overall: 14-12 SU, 13-8 ATS
Big 10: 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS
Totals: 14-6-1 O/U
Indiana
Overall: 20-6 SU, 13-13 ATS
Big 10: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS
Totals: 13-13 O/U
Nebraska at (22) Indiana (BTN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Indiana has yet to lose a home game this season, compiling a perfect 14-0 record at Assembly Hall, while covering four of its last five in Bloomington. The Hoosiers were steamrolled at Michigan State on Sunday, 88-69 as seven-point underdogs to allow their most points since a 94-74 setback at Duke in December. IU cruised past Nebraska in their first matchup in Lincoln, 79-69 in January, while finishing ‘under’ the total for the fifth straight meeting since 2013. The Huskers have stumbled to a 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS record since a four-game winning streak in January, including double-digit road losses to Wisconsin and Purdue.
Nebraska 71
Indiana 78
Oklahoma
Overall: 20-4 SU, 10-12 ATS
Big 12: 8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS
Totals: 13-9 O/U
Texas Tech
Overall: 15-9 SU, 11-10 ATS
Big 12: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Totals: 11-10 O/U
(3) Oklahoma at Texas Tech (ESPNU, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Sooners have dropped two of their last three games, including Saturday’s 76-72 home defeat to Kansas. Oklahoma has posted a 3-9 ATS record the last 12 games, including a 1-4 ATS mark away from Norman. The Sooners hope to turn things around while going for the season sweep of Texas Tech after demolishing the Red Raiders in Norman, 91-67 last month. Texas Tech has been the epitome of an up-and-down team in Big 12 play, losing four of five games prior to outright underdog wins over Iowa State and Baylor. The Red Raiders have lost three of five home conference contests with both victories coming in overtime against Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma 78
Texas Tech 72
Virginia Tech
Overall: 13-12 SU, 11-8 ATS
ACC: 5-7 SU, 9-3 ATS
Totals: 10-8-1 O/U
Miami, FL
Overall: 20-4 SU, 14-8-1 ATS
ACC: 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS
Totals: 11-12 O/U
Virginia Tech at (11) Miami, FL (ESPN3, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Hurricanes are creeping closer to the top of the ACC standings following a four-game winning streak. Miami trails North Carolina by one game for first place in the conference after picking up its second straight two-point victory by holding off rival Florida State on Sunday. The ‘Canes own a perfect 6-0 home conference mark, while posting a 4-1-1 ATS ledger in these games. The Hokies have been one of the top ATS teams in conference play with a 9-3 ATS record, but Virginia Tech has lost six times in the last seven trips to the court. VT has won just once in six ACC road games, while putting together a 1-3 ATS mark as a double-digit away ‘dog.
Virginia Tech 66
Miami, FL 78
Duke
Overall: 19-6 SU, 11-12-1 ATS
ACC: 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS
Totals: 12-12 O/U
North Carolina
Overall: 21-4 SU, 10-14-1 ATS
ACC: 10-2 SU, 4-8 ATS
Totals: 14-11 O/U
(20) Duke at (5) North Carolina (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Blue Devils swept their rivals last season, including a 84-77 triumph at Chapel Hill last March. Duke has come back to life following a 1-4 SU/ATS run to close January by winning four straight, including Saturday’s buzzer-beating victory over Virginia. The Blue Devils have won four of six road games against ACC foes, but all four victories came against the bottom four teams in the conference (Boston College, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and N.C. State). The Tar Heels have won back-to-back games since consecutive losses, as UNC dominated Pittsburgh, 85-64 as 10 ½-point favorites on Sunday. North Carolina has cashed the ‘under’ in seven of its last eight games, while posting a 2-4 ATS mark in home conference action.
Duke 75
North Carolina 80
Arizona State
Overall: 14-12 SU, 12-12-1 ATS
Pac-12: 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
Totals: 15-9 O/U
Arizona
Overall: 21-5 SU, 14-12 ATS
Pac-12: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS
Totals: 17-9 O/U
Arizona State at (12) Arizona (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats have rebounded nicely since losing at home to Oregon in late January by winning five straight games. Arizona pulled off a sweep of the Los Angeles teams at home (UCLA and USC) this past weekend, but failed to cover in each win. The Wildcats took care of the Sun Devils in the Pac-12 opener in Tempe, 94-82, while Arizona has won five straight home matchups with Arizona State since 2011. ASU lost its first five conference road games before beating Washington State earlier this month, 67-55. The Sun Devils are listed as a double-digit underdog for just the second time this season after losing at Kentucky in December, 72-58 as 13-point ‘dogs.
Arizona State 69
Arizona 79
Comment