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Inside the Paint - Thursday
January 28, 2016
This week in the Association started with some great back-and-forth action at the betting counter but the last two days has been nothing but easy ‘chalk’ winners, with favorites going 15-1 straight up and 11-5 against the spread.
Last night’s card saw watched the three heavyweights of the NBA cover as the Cavaliers (-18), Spurs (-9.5) and Warriors (-18) connected.
Since Sunday, favorites are 22-7 SU and 17-12 ATS while the ‘over’ has gone 16-13.
Thursday’s card features six games on tap, including the weekly TNT double-header.
Some of the lines are tight and I’d expect a couple of these underdogs to strike back. Below is my quick handicap on the entire card.
Denver (17-29 SU, 23-21-2 ATS) at Washington (20-23 SU, 22-21 ATS)
The Nuggets enter this game off back-to-back losses, which includes a 111-103 loss at Boston last night. Denver did captured the cover (+9.5) and it’s been a solid lean for bettors lately with an 8-3 ATS mark over its 11 games.
Denver has struggled on no rest this season with a 3-7 record but it has been competitive at the betting counter with a 6-4 mark versus the number. The Nuggets have averaged 107.2 points per game in their last six back-to-back spots, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1. Tonight’s total is hovering around 210.
Make a note that the Wizards have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight and the offense just isn’t consistent without Bradley Beal in the lineup and he’s ‘doubtful’ for tonight’s game with a concussion. Washington has dropped four of its last five games and the defense (104 PPG) can take a lot blame too.
Last season, the Wizards swept the regular season series against Denver last season, posting 119 and 117 points in both victories. However, Washington has struggled to a 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS mark versus the West this season.
Washington (-6) has also been less than stellar as a home favorite this season, going 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS.
Atlanta (27-20 SU, 22-23-2 ATS) at Indiana (23-22 SU, 23-22 ATS)
This is a very tough game to pick and the opening line, Indiana -2 ½, tells you that the game is practically even. Both clubs enter this game off home losses and coincidentally each team lost to the Clippers at home after long road trips.
Indiana point guard George Hill returned from injury last Saturday but he still looks rusty and I’m hesitant to back this team until backup PG Rodney Stuckey returns. Since he’s been out, the Pacers have gone 1-6 both SU and ATS.
Including last night’s 85-83 loss to Los Angeles, the Hawks are 1-3 in their last four the three setbacks came by a combined eight points. The Hawks are a respectable 7-4 SU (5-6 ATS) in back-to-back spots this season but that record is very misleading. Atlanta is 6-0 at home on zero days rest but just 1-4 on the road and that lone win came versus Houston, who blew a huge lead to the Hawks.
These teams met in late December from Indiana and the Pacers captured a 93-87 victory as 1 ½-point home favorites. Prior to that setback, Atlanta had won and covered three straight against Indiana.
The total seems a tad high at 203 ½ just based on form, with Indiana (6-1) and Atlanta (4-1) bringing strong ‘under’ leans into this game.
Milwaukee (20-27 SU, 25-22 ATS) at Memphis (26-20 SU, 21-24-1 ATS)
Head coach Jason Kidd returned to the Bucks on Tuesday and the team responded with a 107-100 win over the Magic and they actually managed to cover as five-point favorites due to another Magic collapse. Without Kidd, assistant Joe Prunty guided the team to a respectable 8-9 SU and 10-7 ATS mark and that included notable wins over the Bulls, Hawks, Heat and Mavericks.
Based on this year’s ratings, Memphis is certainly in the same class with that quartet but down from previous years. The Grizzlies have won five of six and seven of their last nine games yet they’re not getting as much respect by the oddsmakers, and a lot of that has to with their defense.
The Grizzlies are allowing 99 points per game, compared to 95.2 PPG the two previous seasons. Everybody is a little older now and you have a lot of new faces on the court. The effort hasn’t been great lately and total bettors have seen the ‘over’ cash in the last eight games. Memphis has helped that cause with some great offensive production lately, plus all these totals in hovering in the mid-nineties.
Memphis has owned Milwaukee recently, winning eight of the last 10 encounters and that includes four straight setbacks at the FedEx Forum by nine or more points.
New York (22-25 SU, 27-20 ATS) at Toronto (30-15 SU, 26-18-1 ATS)
Toronto opened as a 9 ½-point home favorite against New York. Early reports have PG Kyle Lowry (wrist) listed as ‘questionable’ for the Raptors and New York could be without Carmelo Anthony (knee) as well.
Entering Thursday, the Raptors have won nine straight and more importantly they’ve covered eight of those games. It’s noted here that the schedule has been kind with the last five played at the Air Canada Centre but four of those victories were by double digits.
The Raptors play great defense and since center Jonas Valanciunas returned to the lineup, the club has gone 12-3 and he’s been a double-double machine recently. When he was out for 17 games, they went 10-7.
New York is definitely more competitive this season but if the shots aren’t falling, they have no shot. The Knicks have won five games this season when they were held under 100 points, 17 when eclipsing the century mark. Toronto’s defense (96.6 PPG) is vastly underrated and that could have you leaning host in this spot.
Despite the Raptors sound defense, these teams have played fast in their recent meetings. The ‘over’ has cased in four straight and seven of the last 10 games between the pair. Both clubs have notched five wins a piece during this span with New York winning the last decision, a 111-109 victory at Toronto on Nov. 10 as a 7 ½-point underdog.
Sacramento (20-25 SU, 22-23 ATS) at New Orleans (16-28 SU, 19-25 ATS)
No overnight line was posted with Rudy Gay (eye) expected to miss for the Kings and the Pelicans will more than likely not have Anthony Davis (head) ready to go tonight.
The Davis injury doesn’t help New Orleans, who was starting to turn the corner after an atrocious start to the season. The team is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five and both losses came by a combined three points.
Sacramento isn’t a world beater but it’s on the cusp of making the playoffs and DeMarcus Cousins continues to wreak havoc on all frontcourts. The Kings have dropped two in a row and the second one was expected on zero days rest at Portland this past Tuesday. Prior to that setback, Sacramento was 4-1 in its previous five road games and two of those wins came against OKC and the Clippers.
New Orleans dropped Sacramento 109-97as a 6 ½-point road underdog earlier this month on Jan. 13. Including this win, the Pelicans have won three straight and four of the last five against the Kings. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 over this stretch.
As of early Thursday morning, Sacramento opened as a two-point road favorite and its gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in that role this season.
Chicago (25-19 SU, 17-27 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (9-38 SU, 20-26-1 ATS)
Another game where the opener was delayed due to injuries and not for nothing but does the status of Derrick Rose (hamstring) or Kobe Bryant (shoulder) even matter?
Chicago opened as an 8 ½-point road favorite over Los Angeles and the total is sitting at 202 ½. The Bulls have gone 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS when laying points as visitors this season.
This will be the first of seven straight road games for the Bulls and you have to believe that head coach Fred Hoiberg will press his team tonight, especially since they’ve dropped three of four.
L.A. has dropped seven straight and six of those defeats came by double digits. The Lakers showed some fight on Tuesday against the Mavericks, but still lost 92-90 as 6 ½-point ‘dogs.
This will be the first meeting between the pair this season. The Bulls have won six of the last eight against the Lakers but one of those losses came last season at the Staples Center when the Purple and Gold captured a 123-118 win over Chicago.
While the Bulls are clearly better than Los Angeles, the Lakers have captured six of their nine wins this season against the Eastern Conference and own a 6-10 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in non-conference opponents.
January 28, 2016
This week in the Association started with some great back-and-forth action at the betting counter but the last two days has been nothing but easy ‘chalk’ winners, with favorites going 15-1 straight up and 11-5 against the spread.
Last night’s card saw watched the three heavyweights of the NBA cover as the Cavaliers (-18), Spurs (-9.5) and Warriors (-18) connected.
Since Sunday, favorites are 22-7 SU and 17-12 ATS while the ‘over’ has gone 16-13.
Thursday’s card features six games on tap, including the weekly TNT double-header.
Some of the lines are tight and I’d expect a couple of these underdogs to strike back. Below is my quick handicap on the entire card.
Denver (17-29 SU, 23-21-2 ATS) at Washington (20-23 SU, 22-21 ATS)
The Nuggets enter this game off back-to-back losses, which includes a 111-103 loss at Boston last night. Denver did captured the cover (+9.5) and it’s been a solid lean for bettors lately with an 8-3 ATS mark over its 11 games.
Denver has struggled on no rest this season with a 3-7 record but it has been competitive at the betting counter with a 6-4 mark versus the number. The Nuggets have averaged 107.2 points per game in their last six back-to-back spots, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1. Tonight’s total is hovering around 210.
Make a note that the Wizards have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight and the offense just isn’t consistent without Bradley Beal in the lineup and he’s ‘doubtful’ for tonight’s game with a concussion. Washington has dropped four of its last five games and the defense (104 PPG) can take a lot blame too.
Last season, the Wizards swept the regular season series against Denver last season, posting 119 and 117 points in both victories. However, Washington has struggled to a 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS mark versus the West this season.
Washington (-6) has also been less than stellar as a home favorite this season, going 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS.
Atlanta (27-20 SU, 22-23-2 ATS) at Indiana (23-22 SU, 23-22 ATS)
This is a very tough game to pick and the opening line, Indiana -2 ½, tells you that the game is practically even. Both clubs enter this game off home losses and coincidentally each team lost to the Clippers at home after long road trips.
Indiana point guard George Hill returned from injury last Saturday but he still looks rusty and I’m hesitant to back this team until backup PG Rodney Stuckey returns. Since he’s been out, the Pacers have gone 1-6 both SU and ATS.
Including last night’s 85-83 loss to Los Angeles, the Hawks are 1-3 in their last four the three setbacks came by a combined eight points. The Hawks are a respectable 7-4 SU (5-6 ATS) in back-to-back spots this season but that record is very misleading. Atlanta is 6-0 at home on zero days rest but just 1-4 on the road and that lone win came versus Houston, who blew a huge lead to the Hawks.
These teams met in late December from Indiana and the Pacers captured a 93-87 victory as 1 ½-point home favorites. Prior to that setback, Atlanta had won and covered three straight against Indiana.
The total seems a tad high at 203 ½ just based on form, with Indiana (6-1) and Atlanta (4-1) bringing strong ‘under’ leans into this game.
Milwaukee (20-27 SU, 25-22 ATS) at Memphis (26-20 SU, 21-24-1 ATS)
Head coach Jason Kidd returned to the Bucks on Tuesday and the team responded with a 107-100 win over the Magic and they actually managed to cover as five-point favorites due to another Magic collapse. Without Kidd, assistant Joe Prunty guided the team to a respectable 8-9 SU and 10-7 ATS mark and that included notable wins over the Bulls, Hawks, Heat and Mavericks.
Based on this year’s ratings, Memphis is certainly in the same class with that quartet but down from previous years. The Grizzlies have won five of six and seven of their last nine games yet they’re not getting as much respect by the oddsmakers, and a lot of that has to with their defense.
The Grizzlies are allowing 99 points per game, compared to 95.2 PPG the two previous seasons. Everybody is a little older now and you have a lot of new faces on the court. The effort hasn’t been great lately and total bettors have seen the ‘over’ cash in the last eight games. Memphis has helped that cause with some great offensive production lately, plus all these totals in hovering in the mid-nineties.
Memphis has owned Milwaukee recently, winning eight of the last 10 encounters and that includes four straight setbacks at the FedEx Forum by nine or more points.
New York (22-25 SU, 27-20 ATS) at Toronto (30-15 SU, 26-18-1 ATS)
Toronto opened as a 9 ½-point home favorite against New York. Early reports have PG Kyle Lowry (wrist) listed as ‘questionable’ for the Raptors and New York could be without Carmelo Anthony (knee) as well.
Entering Thursday, the Raptors have won nine straight and more importantly they’ve covered eight of those games. It’s noted here that the schedule has been kind with the last five played at the Air Canada Centre but four of those victories were by double digits.
The Raptors play great defense and since center Jonas Valanciunas returned to the lineup, the club has gone 12-3 and he’s been a double-double machine recently. When he was out for 17 games, they went 10-7.
New York is definitely more competitive this season but if the shots aren’t falling, they have no shot. The Knicks have won five games this season when they were held under 100 points, 17 when eclipsing the century mark. Toronto’s defense (96.6 PPG) is vastly underrated and that could have you leaning host in this spot.
Despite the Raptors sound defense, these teams have played fast in their recent meetings. The ‘over’ has cased in four straight and seven of the last 10 games between the pair. Both clubs have notched five wins a piece during this span with New York winning the last decision, a 111-109 victory at Toronto on Nov. 10 as a 7 ½-point underdog.
Sacramento (20-25 SU, 22-23 ATS) at New Orleans (16-28 SU, 19-25 ATS)
No overnight line was posted with Rudy Gay (eye) expected to miss for the Kings and the Pelicans will more than likely not have Anthony Davis (head) ready to go tonight.
The Davis injury doesn’t help New Orleans, who was starting to turn the corner after an atrocious start to the season. The team is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five and both losses came by a combined three points.
Sacramento isn’t a world beater but it’s on the cusp of making the playoffs and DeMarcus Cousins continues to wreak havoc on all frontcourts. The Kings have dropped two in a row and the second one was expected on zero days rest at Portland this past Tuesday. Prior to that setback, Sacramento was 4-1 in its previous five road games and two of those wins came against OKC and the Clippers.
New Orleans dropped Sacramento 109-97as a 6 ½-point road underdog earlier this month on Jan. 13. Including this win, the Pelicans have won three straight and four of the last five against the Kings. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 over this stretch.
As of early Thursday morning, Sacramento opened as a two-point road favorite and its gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in that role this season.
Chicago (25-19 SU, 17-27 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (9-38 SU, 20-26-1 ATS)
Another game where the opener was delayed due to injuries and not for nothing but does the status of Derrick Rose (hamstring) or Kobe Bryant (shoulder) even matter?
Chicago opened as an 8 ½-point road favorite over Los Angeles and the total is sitting at 202 ½. The Bulls have gone 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS when laying points as visitors this season.
This will be the first of seven straight road games for the Bulls and you have to believe that head coach Fred Hoiberg will press his team tonight, especially since they’ve dropped three of four.
L.A. has dropped seven straight and six of those defeats came by double digits. The Lakers showed some fight on Tuesday against the Mavericks, but still lost 92-90 as 6 ½-point ‘dogs.
This will be the first meeting between the pair this season. The Bulls have won six of the last eight against the Lakers but one of those losses came last season at the Staples Center when the Purple and Gold captured a 123-118 win over Chicago.
While the Bulls are clearly better than Los Angeles, the Lakers have captured six of their nine wins this season against the Eastern Conference and own a 6-10 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in non-conference opponents.
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