Game 1 trends lean to Warriors
June 1, 2015
Game 1 of the NBA Finals takes place Thursday June 4 from Oracle Arena as Golden State hosts Cleveland in the opener.
Based on betting percentages at Sportsbook.ag, the public is backing the Cavaliers in Game 1 as six-point road underdogs as of Monday morning.
It’s certainly not going to be easy to bet against Cleveland, who bring a seven-game winning streak into this series. Also, the Cavaliers have gone 2-1 both straight up and against the spread as underdogs in this year’s playoffs and the lone loss came in Game 3 of the conference semifinals to Chicago. In case you forgot that outcome, the Bulls won 99-96 on a buzzer beater from Derrick Rose.
If you like to use historical numbers in your handicapping, then you could easily change your mind and lay the points with the Warriors this Thursday.
In the last 17 openers of the NBA Finals, the home team has gone 14-3 SU and the majority of these victories haven’t been close with 12 of the 14 wins decided by eight points or more.
The last visitor to win Game 1 on the road came in the 2013 playoffs as San Antonio defeated Miami 92-88 as five-point road underdogs.
The Spurs quickly got the trend back on track last postseason as they cruised past Miami 110-95 in Game 1 of the 2014 NBA Finals.
Can LeBron James and the Cavaliers steal the opener? According to VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers, it doesn’t seem likely.
“James has struggled in his career in playoff series openers on the road, going 1-8 with the Cavaliers and Heat as the lone victory came in the 2015 conference finals against Atlanta. Make a note that it was also the first time that LeBron led a series 2-0 with both victories on the road,” explained Rogers.
Golden State has gone 3-0 in Game 1’s at home in this year’s playoffs but only managed to cover one of those games, which came in the conference semifinals against the Grizzlies. In the non-covers, the Warriors were backdoored by the Pelicans in the first round and despite having a late chance, they couldn’t pull away from the Rockets in the conference finals opener.
Another solid trend to watch for Game 1 on Thursday focuses on the total. The last 17 openers have watched the 'under' go 11-5-1 and a few of the ‘over’ tickets were very fortunate to cash.
For Game 1, oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out an ‘over/under’ of 204 and that number is sitting at 202 ½ as of Monday.
In the two regular season matchups that were split between the pair, the totals ranged from 211 to 216. You could argue that both numbers were fair considering the winner scored 112 and 110 points, but the loser didn’t do their part, failing to break the century mark in both defeats.
Golden State has been a great ‘under’ bet (11-3-1) in the playoffs, especially at home (7-0-1).
Cleveland has leaned slightly to the ‘under’ (8-6) in the postseason and most of the winning tickets have come away from home (6-1).
Listed below are the past 17 results for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
GAME 1 OF THE NBA FINALS (1998-2014)
Year Matchup Total
2014 San Antonio 110 vs. Miami 95 Over 198.5
2013 Miami 88 vs. San Antonio 92 Under 189.5
2012 Oklahoma City 105 vs. Miami 94 Over195
2011 Miami 92 vs. Dallas 84 Under 188
2010 L.A. Lakers 102 vs. Boston 89 Push 191
2009 L.A. Lakers 100 vs. Orlando 75 Under 205.5
2008 Boston 98 vs. L.A. Lakers 88 Under 191.5
2007 San Antonio 85 vs. Cleveland 76 Under 179.5
2006 Dallas 90 vs. Miami 80 Under 194
2005 San Antonio 84 vs. Detroit 69 Under 176
2004 L.A. Lakers 75 vs. Detroit 87 Under 171
2003 San Antonio 101 vs. New Jersey 89 Over187
2002 L.A. Lakers 99 vs. New Jersey 94 Over191
2001 L.A. Lakers 101 vs. Philadelphia 107 (OT) Over191
2000 L.A. Lakers 104 vs. Indiana 87 Under 194
1999 San Antonio 89 vs. New York 77 Under 172
1998 Utah 88 vs. Chicago 85 (OT) Under 186
June 1, 2015
Game 1 of the NBA Finals takes place Thursday June 4 from Oracle Arena as Golden State hosts Cleveland in the opener.
Based on betting percentages at Sportsbook.ag, the public is backing the Cavaliers in Game 1 as six-point road underdogs as of Monday morning.
It’s certainly not going to be easy to bet against Cleveland, who bring a seven-game winning streak into this series. Also, the Cavaliers have gone 2-1 both straight up and against the spread as underdogs in this year’s playoffs and the lone loss came in Game 3 of the conference semifinals to Chicago. In case you forgot that outcome, the Bulls won 99-96 on a buzzer beater from Derrick Rose.
If you like to use historical numbers in your handicapping, then you could easily change your mind and lay the points with the Warriors this Thursday.
In the last 17 openers of the NBA Finals, the home team has gone 14-3 SU and the majority of these victories haven’t been close with 12 of the 14 wins decided by eight points or more.
The last visitor to win Game 1 on the road came in the 2013 playoffs as San Antonio defeated Miami 92-88 as five-point road underdogs.
The Spurs quickly got the trend back on track last postseason as they cruised past Miami 110-95 in Game 1 of the 2014 NBA Finals.
Can LeBron James and the Cavaliers steal the opener? According to VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers, it doesn’t seem likely.
“James has struggled in his career in playoff series openers on the road, going 1-8 with the Cavaliers and Heat as the lone victory came in the 2015 conference finals against Atlanta. Make a note that it was also the first time that LeBron led a series 2-0 with both victories on the road,” explained Rogers.
Golden State has gone 3-0 in Game 1’s at home in this year’s playoffs but only managed to cover one of those games, which came in the conference semifinals against the Grizzlies. In the non-covers, the Warriors were backdoored by the Pelicans in the first round and despite having a late chance, they couldn’t pull away from the Rockets in the conference finals opener.
Another solid trend to watch for Game 1 on Thursday focuses on the total. The last 17 openers have watched the 'under' go 11-5-1 and a few of the ‘over’ tickets were very fortunate to cash.
For Game 1, oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out an ‘over/under’ of 204 and that number is sitting at 202 ½ as of Monday.
In the two regular season matchups that were split between the pair, the totals ranged from 211 to 216. You could argue that both numbers were fair considering the winner scored 112 and 110 points, but the loser didn’t do their part, failing to break the century mark in both defeats.
Golden State has been a great ‘under’ bet (11-3-1) in the playoffs, especially at home (7-0-1).
Cleveland has leaned slightly to the ‘under’ (8-6) in the postseason and most of the winning tickets have come away from home (6-1).
Listed below are the past 17 results for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
GAME 1 OF THE NBA FINALS (1998-2014)
Year Matchup Total
2014 San Antonio 110 vs. Miami 95 Over 198.5
2013 Miami 88 vs. San Antonio 92 Under 189.5
2012 Oklahoma City 105 vs. Miami 94 Over195
2011 Miami 92 vs. Dallas 84 Under 188
2010 L.A. Lakers 102 vs. Boston 89 Push 191
2009 L.A. Lakers 100 vs. Orlando 75 Under 205.5
2008 Boston 98 vs. L.A. Lakers 88 Under 191.5
2007 San Antonio 85 vs. Cleveland 76 Under 179.5
2006 Dallas 90 vs. Miami 80 Under 194
2005 San Antonio 84 vs. Detroit 69 Under 176
2004 L.A. Lakers 75 vs. Detroit 87 Under 171
2003 San Antonio 101 vs. New Jersey 89 Over187
2002 L.A. Lakers 99 vs. New Jersey 94 Over191
2001 L.A. Lakers 101 vs. Philadelphia 107 (OT) Over191
2000 L.A. Lakers 104 vs. Indiana 87 Under 194
1999 San Antonio 89 vs. New York 77 Under 172
1998 Utah 88 vs. Chicago 85 (OT) Under 186
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