Warriors vs. Cavs NBA Finals is a double-edged sword for sportsbooks
When the final horn sounded on the Golden State Warriors’ 104-90 victory over the Houston Rockets Wednesday night, plenty of sportsbooks - both online and in Nevada – put their heads in their hands and let out a heavy sigh.
The 2015 NBA Finals is a perfect storm when it comes to the NBA futures market. The Warriors and Cavaliers held the most liability for bookmakers across the industry heading into the playoffs, with some books exposed on Golden State’s sudden rise in the West or caught with their pants down before LeBron James returned to Cleveland last summer. And some unfortunate books, are looking at a futures loss no matter the outcome.
“We’re screwed either way,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag tells Covers.
Childs says the liability on the Cavs is far more than the Warriors because basketball bettors jumped on Cleveland’s early title odds last summer, when rumors started to swirl about James returning home. Cleveland was as big as 60/1 and people pounded it, looking for that added value – if LeBron signed. He, of course, did.
“Hindsight’s 20/20 and my bosses aren’t all that pleased with me right now,” says Childs, “but we’re talking June and July of last year. And while I was proven wrong, the Cavs had to overcome a lot just to get here. Regardless, we’re rooting hard for the Warriors even though we do lose a bit of money on them as well.”
Childs isn’t alone when it comes to losing money on Golden State. Many Nevada bookmakers are suddenly Cavs fans for this final due to the California crowds coming in and betting the Warriors to win.
According to Nick Bogdanovich, U.S. director of trading for William Hill, action on Golden State was constant throughout the season, walking their futures odds from +2,500 to their current price as -240 series favorites (Cleveland +200) at most shops.
Bogdanovich says the NBA futures book would be a small to medium loser on Golden State, with a win on Cleveland, due to William Hill’s sportsbooks outside of Las Vegas, namely those up north in Tahoe, Reno and right on the California border.
Those books see a lot of California bettors coming to town to watch and wager on their Warriors. But, in the same breath, having Golden State in the Finals and its fans flooding the book is good for business, be it action on the NBA or basketball fans making a few other wagers on baseball and NFL futures while they wait for the playoff games to start.
“It’s great for business – 100 percent,” says Bogdanovich. “That’s why we’re in the position we’re in, because of those books up north, but having (Golden State) in the Finals is good for business. And while it would have been nice to have Houston in the final, (the Warriors) are a great story to get behind. Rookie coach taking the team to the Finals for the first time since 1975. That’s a good story.”
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook was on one side of the fence when the season started, holding liability on the Cavaliers' NBA title odds, which were as big as 60/1 when 2014-15 NBA futures opened. They were able to trim down that liability over the course of the season, but now would be a small loser on Golden State.
"Most of the early money that came in on the Cavs was at 20/1 and then we dropped them pretty quickly, down to 5/2 where they stood most of the season," Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the Westgate Superbook, tells Covers. "We were able to work that liability off. But with the Warriors, they opened at 25/1 and their consistently good play got them support all season."
The matchup, regardless of how it impacts the futures market, is the one the NBA wanted and bookmakers can’t deny the appeal of a Cleveland-Golden State clash for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. That should help drum up a bigger TV audience for the Finals, which start on June 4, and a bigger audience means more betting action.
“This is a fantastic matchup for betting action because you’ve got all the glitz and glamour with LeBron vs. Curry,” John Lester, lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, tells Covers. “Our biggest concern is the casual fan and bettor losing interest and forgetting about the series due to the long layoff.”
The star power of James as well as the public appeal of current MVP Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ up-tempo offense is a tremendous blend of factors that should give the 2015 NBA Finals a boost. Last year’s Finals, between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat, recorded a five-year low in TV ratings for the NBA championship round (9.3 rating) and was the ninth-lowest rated NBA Finals since 1976.
“The Warriors are the most fun team to watch, playing with such great flow from a major market in Northern California and the first true West Coast team since the Lakers in 2010 to represent the West,” says Childs. “It’s going to be a great, great finals no matter what the outcome is.”
Bogdanovich agrees and says a solid matchup in the NBA Finals will help stave off the "Dog Days of Summer", when sports bettors are pretty much left with nothing but baseball until football begins in September.
"If this were a garbage matchup in the Finals, the 'Dog Days' would officially be on."
Poker pick up
The World Series of Poker takes over Las Vegas, starting this week and that means plenty of big-money bankrolls looking to kill time between tournament games. Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM properties, is hoping those WSOP players find their way to the sportsbook for the NBA Finals.
“It’s such a tremendous matchup from a betting perspective and if we can get some of those guys involved, the handle on this could be really, really good,” Rood tells Covers.
Under-whelming Finals
The Warriors’ presence in the NBA Finals has forced books to open the Game 1 total at 203.5 points. That’s a massive number compared to the average Game 1 Over/Under since the 2006 NBA Finals. In that span, the Finals opener has had an average betting total of 192.56 points with teams combining for an average of 182 points in those contests. That’s led to a 2-6-1 Over/Under record in the last nine Game 1s of the NBA Finals.
Overall, NBA Finals games have finished 19-29-3 O/U since 2006, with an average of 187.14 points scored versus an average betting total of 190.3 points. The only two Finals scenarios that have favored the Over are Game 5 and Game 6, going 5-3 O/U (202 pts/191.31 total) and 3-2 O/U (193 pts/189.7 total) respectively in that time frame.
Sweep the leg!
The Cavaliers are just the eighth team to sweep their conference championship series since 1991. The last seven NBA teams coming off a series sweep in the conference finals are just 23-17 SU, 21-19 ATS, and 14-26 O/U in the NBA Finals.
Of those past seven teams, four have gone on to win the NBA title – ’91 Bulls, ’96 Bulls. ’99 Spurs, and ’01 Lakers. The last two teams to sweep their respective conference championship, the ’03 Nets and ’13 Spurs, join the ’98 Jazz as the three teams to follow a series sweep with a loss in the NBA Finals.
Best of the Best
Stephen Curry is a trying to join an elite group of NBA players who have won the regular season MVP, Finals MVP and the NBA Championship all in the same season. That would put him up there with names like Willis Reed, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan and his 2015 finals opponent LeBron James.
Oddsmakers are pegging Curry as a -200 favorite to earn Finals MVP honors, with James set at +225. Behind those two superstars are Kyrie Irving +1,200, Draymond Green +1,400, Klay Thompson +1,600, J.R. Smith +8,000, Tristan Thompson +10,000, Andrew Bogut +15,000 and Harrison Barnes +15,000.
While it’s tough to look beyond Curry and James, last year’s NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat proved profitable for those Finals MVP bettors who took a flyer on Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, who entered the 2014 NBA Finals as a +1,500 underdog to win the top individual honor.
The health of Thompson is obviously a big factor in his current MVP prices. As of last week, Thomson was as low as +800 to win the Bill Russell Award. But since suffering a concussion in Game 5 versus Houston Wednesday, his status for Game 1 on June 4 is up in the air.
When the final horn sounded on the Golden State Warriors’ 104-90 victory over the Houston Rockets Wednesday night, plenty of sportsbooks - both online and in Nevada – put their heads in their hands and let out a heavy sigh.
The 2015 NBA Finals is a perfect storm when it comes to the NBA futures market. The Warriors and Cavaliers held the most liability for bookmakers across the industry heading into the playoffs, with some books exposed on Golden State’s sudden rise in the West or caught with their pants down before LeBron James returned to Cleveland last summer. And some unfortunate books, are looking at a futures loss no matter the outcome.
“We’re screwed either way,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag tells Covers.
Childs says the liability on the Cavs is far more than the Warriors because basketball bettors jumped on Cleveland’s early title odds last summer, when rumors started to swirl about James returning home. Cleveland was as big as 60/1 and people pounded it, looking for that added value – if LeBron signed. He, of course, did.
“Hindsight’s 20/20 and my bosses aren’t all that pleased with me right now,” says Childs, “but we’re talking June and July of last year. And while I was proven wrong, the Cavs had to overcome a lot just to get here. Regardless, we’re rooting hard for the Warriors even though we do lose a bit of money on them as well.”
Childs isn’t alone when it comes to losing money on Golden State. Many Nevada bookmakers are suddenly Cavs fans for this final due to the California crowds coming in and betting the Warriors to win.
According to Nick Bogdanovich, U.S. director of trading for William Hill, action on Golden State was constant throughout the season, walking their futures odds from +2,500 to their current price as -240 series favorites (Cleveland +200) at most shops.
Bogdanovich says the NBA futures book would be a small to medium loser on Golden State, with a win on Cleveland, due to William Hill’s sportsbooks outside of Las Vegas, namely those up north in Tahoe, Reno and right on the California border.
Those books see a lot of California bettors coming to town to watch and wager on their Warriors. But, in the same breath, having Golden State in the Finals and its fans flooding the book is good for business, be it action on the NBA or basketball fans making a few other wagers on baseball and NFL futures while they wait for the playoff games to start.
“It’s great for business – 100 percent,” says Bogdanovich. “That’s why we’re in the position we’re in, because of those books up north, but having (Golden State) in the Finals is good for business. And while it would have been nice to have Houston in the final, (the Warriors) are a great story to get behind. Rookie coach taking the team to the Finals for the first time since 1975. That’s a good story.”
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook was on one side of the fence when the season started, holding liability on the Cavaliers' NBA title odds, which were as big as 60/1 when 2014-15 NBA futures opened. They were able to trim down that liability over the course of the season, but now would be a small loser on Golden State.
"Most of the early money that came in on the Cavs was at 20/1 and then we dropped them pretty quickly, down to 5/2 where they stood most of the season," Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the Westgate Superbook, tells Covers. "We were able to work that liability off. But with the Warriors, they opened at 25/1 and their consistently good play got them support all season."
The matchup, regardless of how it impacts the futures market, is the one the NBA wanted and bookmakers can’t deny the appeal of a Cleveland-Golden State clash for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. That should help drum up a bigger TV audience for the Finals, which start on June 4, and a bigger audience means more betting action.
“This is a fantastic matchup for betting action because you’ve got all the glitz and glamour with LeBron vs. Curry,” John Lester, lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, tells Covers. “Our biggest concern is the casual fan and bettor losing interest and forgetting about the series due to the long layoff.”
The star power of James as well as the public appeal of current MVP Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ up-tempo offense is a tremendous blend of factors that should give the 2015 NBA Finals a boost. Last year’s Finals, between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat, recorded a five-year low in TV ratings for the NBA championship round (9.3 rating) and was the ninth-lowest rated NBA Finals since 1976.
“The Warriors are the most fun team to watch, playing with such great flow from a major market in Northern California and the first true West Coast team since the Lakers in 2010 to represent the West,” says Childs. “It’s going to be a great, great finals no matter what the outcome is.”
Bogdanovich agrees and says a solid matchup in the NBA Finals will help stave off the "Dog Days of Summer", when sports bettors are pretty much left with nothing but baseball until football begins in September.
"If this were a garbage matchup in the Finals, the 'Dog Days' would officially be on."
Poker pick up
The World Series of Poker takes over Las Vegas, starting this week and that means plenty of big-money bankrolls looking to kill time between tournament games. Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM properties, is hoping those WSOP players find their way to the sportsbook for the NBA Finals.
“It’s such a tremendous matchup from a betting perspective and if we can get some of those guys involved, the handle on this could be really, really good,” Rood tells Covers.
Under-whelming Finals
The Warriors’ presence in the NBA Finals has forced books to open the Game 1 total at 203.5 points. That’s a massive number compared to the average Game 1 Over/Under since the 2006 NBA Finals. In that span, the Finals opener has had an average betting total of 192.56 points with teams combining for an average of 182 points in those contests. That’s led to a 2-6-1 Over/Under record in the last nine Game 1s of the NBA Finals.
Overall, NBA Finals games have finished 19-29-3 O/U since 2006, with an average of 187.14 points scored versus an average betting total of 190.3 points. The only two Finals scenarios that have favored the Over are Game 5 and Game 6, going 5-3 O/U (202 pts/191.31 total) and 3-2 O/U (193 pts/189.7 total) respectively in that time frame.
Sweep the leg!
The Cavaliers are just the eighth team to sweep their conference championship series since 1991. The last seven NBA teams coming off a series sweep in the conference finals are just 23-17 SU, 21-19 ATS, and 14-26 O/U in the NBA Finals.
Of those past seven teams, four have gone on to win the NBA title – ’91 Bulls, ’96 Bulls. ’99 Spurs, and ’01 Lakers. The last two teams to sweep their respective conference championship, the ’03 Nets and ’13 Spurs, join the ’98 Jazz as the three teams to follow a series sweep with a loss in the NBA Finals.
Best of the Best
Stephen Curry is a trying to join an elite group of NBA players who have won the regular season MVP, Finals MVP and the NBA Championship all in the same season. That would put him up there with names like Willis Reed, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan and his 2015 finals opponent LeBron James.
Oddsmakers are pegging Curry as a -200 favorite to earn Finals MVP honors, with James set at +225. Behind those two superstars are Kyrie Irving +1,200, Draymond Green +1,400, Klay Thompson +1,600, J.R. Smith +8,000, Tristan Thompson +10,000, Andrew Bogut +15,000 and Harrison Barnes +15,000.
While it’s tough to look beyond Curry and James, last year’s NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat proved profitable for those Finals MVP bettors who took a flyer on Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, who entered the 2014 NBA Finals as a +1,500 underdog to win the top individual honor.
The health of Thompson is obviously a big factor in his current MVP prices. As of last week, Thomson was as low as +800 to win the Bill Russell Award. But since suffering a concussion in Game 5 versus Houston Wednesday, his status for Game 1 on June 4 is up in the air.
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