NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, March 1
SMU won five in row, 21 of last 23 games, with Cincinnati beating them twice; Mustangs (-6.5) beat UConn 73-55 at home Feb 14. Huskies shot 34% for game, 7-25 from arc. SMU won its last seven road games, is 4-1 vs spread in last five overall. UConn won five of last six games, won its last six home games since losing home opener to Temple. AAC home teams are 15-7-1 in games with spread of 5 or less points.
Oregon State lost four of last five games, is 1-6 as road underdog, with all seven road losses by 12+ points (won at Wazzu). Beavers are 4-0 when they score 60+ points, 4-8 when they don't. Cal lost its last three games by 15-11-11 points; they're 0-3 as home favorites, 3-5 SU at home, with wins by 6-1-2 points. Cal won last four series, with three of four wins by 5 or less points. Underdogs are 10-6 in Pac-12 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Marquette (-1.5) beat Providence 75-66 at home Jan 3; they had turnover ratio of +6 (17-11) in game that was tied at half, but Eagles lost eight of last nine games, losing last four, three by 11+ points. Marquette is 4-3 as road underdogs, losing seven of eight on road, with last three road losses by 18-7-21 points. Friars are 3-4 in last seven games; they're 4-2 as home favorites, with only two home wins by more than seven points. Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 17-12 vs spread.
Purdue won eight of its last nine games, winning three of last four on the road (4-0 vs spread); Boilers (+2.5) upset Ohio State 60-58 at home Feb 4, in game Loving sat out for OSU; Purdue outscored OSU 19-6 on foul line in brickfest where teams were combined 7-27 on arc. Buckeyes split last six games, are 6-1 as home favorites, winning/covering last six after a loss to Iowa in home opener. Big 14 home favorites of 8+ points are 7-19 against the spread.
Michigan State gagged away 5-point lead to Minnesota in last 0:15 of last game Thursday, snapping Spartans' 4-game win streak. State won its last four road games, is 1-1 as Big 14 underdog; they've played better on road. Wisconsin got upset at Maryland last game; they're 2-5-1 as favorites at home, with six of eight home wins by 14+ points. Big 14 home favorites of 8+ points are 7-19 vs spread. Spartans won six of last seven games vs Wisconsin; not lot of teams have that much success vs Bo Ryan.
Pitt won six of last eight games, but lost three of last four on road; they beat Wake Forest twice LY, by 15 in regular season, 29 in ACC tourney, but that was last year. Deacons won last three home games by total of 9 points; they're 5-2 vs spread at home- their three home losses are Duke, UNC, Louisville. Panthers have #14 eFG% defense in ACC, unusually bad for them; they play slow tempo, Wake plays fastest tempo in ACC. ACC home teams are 9-8 in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Oregon won seven of last eight games, covered five of last six; Ducks won last three games, all by 11 points and won three of last four road games, after losing first three- they're 1-3 as dogs on road, with road losses by 9-8-34-9 points. Stanford won last three at home by 8-11-27 points; they are 4-3 as home favorites, 6-2 SU with all six wins by 8+ points. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 23-15-2 against the spread.
Arizona State was down 41-9 at half in last game at Utah; ASU (-5.5) got 78-72 home win over Colorado Jan 17, shooting 59% inside arc, 10-20 on arc (Buffs were 10-21). Sun Devils won three of last four games, are 3-2 as road underdogs, with only road wins at Cal/Washington. Pac-12 home favorites of less than 5 points are 8-6 vs spread. Colorado lost three in a row, six of last games, with their last three losses all by 13+ points.
UCLA won/covered all seven of its home games (5-0 as home favorite), with four of seven home wins by 13+ points. Washington State split its last four games, is 4-3 vs spread in last seven, 4-2-2 as road underdogs, with four of five road losses by 15+ points- they won games at USC, Cal and Washington. Coogs' two spread losses on road were both in second game of weekend, at Colorado/Oregon. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 12-6-2 vs spread.
Quinnipiac (-3.5) won 73-59 at home vs Manhattan Jan 23, outscoring Jaspers 24-11 on foul line- they blew 10-point halftime lead in this game, pulled away late. Bobcats lost three of last four games, are 3-2 as dog on road, but they lost three of last four away games. Manhattan lost rivalry game with Iona Friday, snapping 3-game winning streak; they're 5-3 as a home favorite, with five of their seven home wins by 7+ points. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 13-19 vs spread.
Iona has top seed clinched for MAAC tourney, won rivalry game Friday over Manhattan, isn't real deep, not sure how much they'll extend to beat St Peter's team they nipped 68-61 (-9.5) in OT Jan 31, in brickfest where teams made 9-41 from arc. Gaels won last 11 games and 16 of last 17, are 3-4 as road favorites. Peacocks lost last four games, losing at Marist last game; they're 3-6 SU at home. MAAC home dogs of 5 or less points are 7-8 against the spread.
Fairfield lost 11 of its last 12 games, including 55-53 (-5.5) home loss to Niagara ten days ago, when Eagles outscored Fairfield 15-5 on foul line in Stags' gym. Stags are 5-3-1 as road underdogs, losing last seven on road, all by 6+ points. Niagara won its last three games by 2-4-11 after a 4-21 start to season; Eagles are 0-2 as MAAC favorites, losing six of their last seven home games, with only win in double OT. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 13-19 vs spread.
Monmouth (+1.5) won 83-64 at Siena Feb 14, scoring 1.36 ppp, a very high number- they held Siena to 3-17 from arc. Hawks lost their last two games by total of four points,. after a solid 8-3 run; they're 3-4-1 as home favorites, splitting last four home games, with both wins by four points. Siena lost its last four games; three of them were at home; Saints are 3-5-1 as road underdogs; only one of their last four losses was by more than 8 points. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-17 vs spread.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, March 1
SMU won five in row, 21 of last 23 games, with Cincinnati beating them twice; Mustangs (-6.5) beat UConn 73-55 at home Feb 14. Huskies shot 34% for game, 7-25 from arc. SMU won its last seven road games, is 4-1 vs spread in last five overall. UConn won five of last six games, won its last six home games since losing home opener to Temple. AAC home teams are 15-7-1 in games with spread of 5 or less points.
Oregon State lost four of last five games, is 1-6 as road underdog, with all seven road losses by 12+ points (won at Wazzu). Beavers are 4-0 when they score 60+ points, 4-8 when they don't. Cal lost its last three games by 15-11-11 points; they're 0-3 as home favorites, 3-5 SU at home, with wins by 6-1-2 points. Cal won last four series, with three of four wins by 5 or less points. Underdogs are 10-6 in Pac-12 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Marquette (-1.5) beat Providence 75-66 at home Jan 3; they had turnover ratio of +6 (17-11) in game that was tied at half, but Eagles lost eight of last nine games, losing last four, three by 11+ points. Marquette is 4-3 as road underdogs, losing seven of eight on road, with last three road losses by 18-7-21 points. Friars are 3-4 in last seven games; they're 4-2 as home favorites, with only two home wins by more than seven points. Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 17-12 vs spread.
Purdue won eight of its last nine games, winning three of last four on the road (4-0 vs spread); Boilers (+2.5) upset Ohio State 60-58 at home Feb 4, in game Loving sat out for OSU; Purdue outscored OSU 19-6 on foul line in brickfest where teams were combined 7-27 on arc. Buckeyes split last six games, are 6-1 as home favorites, winning/covering last six after a loss to Iowa in home opener. Big 14 home favorites of 8+ points are 7-19 against the spread.
Michigan State gagged away 5-point lead to Minnesota in last 0:15 of last game Thursday, snapping Spartans' 4-game win streak. State won its last four road games, is 1-1 as Big 14 underdog; they've played better on road. Wisconsin got upset at Maryland last game; they're 2-5-1 as favorites at home, with six of eight home wins by 14+ points. Big 14 home favorites of 8+ points are 7-19 vs spread. Spartans won six of last seven games vs Wisconsin; not lot of teams have that much success vs Bo Ryan.
Pitt won six of last eight games, but lost three of last four on road; they beat Wake Forest twice LY, by 15 in regular season, 29 in ACC tourney, but that was last year. Deacons won last three home games by total of 9 points; they're 5-2 vs spread at home- their three home losses are Duke, UNC, Louisville. Panthers have #14 eFG% defense in ACC, unusually bad for them; they play slow tempo, Wake plays fastest tempo in ACC. ACC home teams are 9-8 in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Oregon won seven of last eight games, covered five of last six; Ducks won last three games, all by 11 points and won three of last four road games, after losing first three- they're 1-3 as dogs on road, with road losses by 9-8-34-9 points. Stanford won last three at home by 8-11-27 points; they are 4-3 as home favorites, 6-2 SU with all six wins by 8+ points. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 23-15-2 against the spread.
Arizona State was down 41-9 at half in last game at Utah; ASU (-5.5) got 78-72 home win over Colorado Jan 17, shooting 59% inside arc, 10-20 on arc (Buffs were 10-21). Sun Devils won three of last four games, are 3-2 as road underdogs, with only road wins at Cal/Washington. Pac-12 home favorites of less than 5 points are 8-6 vs spread. Colorado lost three in a row, six of last games, with their last three losses all by 13+ points.
UCLA won/covered all seven of its home games (5-0 as home favorite), with four of seven home wins by 13+ points. Washington State split its last four games, is 4-3 vs spread in last seven, 4-2-2 as road underdogs, with four of five road losses by 15+ points- they won games at USC, Cal and Washington. Coogs' two spread losses on road were both in second game of weekend, at Colorado/Oregon. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 12-6-2 vs spread.
Quinnipiac (-3.5) won 73-59 at home vs Manhattan Jan 23, outscoring Jaspers 24-11 on foul line- they blew 10-point halftime lead in this game, pulled away late. Bobcats lost three of last four games, are 3-2 as dog on road, but they lost three of last four away games. Manhattan lost rivalry game with Iona Friday, snapping 3-game winning streak; they're 5-3 as a home favorite, with five of their seven home wins by 7+ points. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 13-19 vs spread.
Iona has top seed clinched for MAAC tourney, won rivalry game Friday over Manhattan, isn't real deep, not sure how much they'll extend to beat St Peter's team they nipped 68-61 (-9.5) in OT Jan 31, in brickfest where teams made 9-41 from arc. Gaels won last 11 games and 16 of last 17, are 3-4 as road favorites. Peacocks lost last four games, losing at Marist last game; they're 3-6 SU at home. MAAC home dogs of 5 or less points are 7-8 against the spread.
Fairfield lost 11 of its last 12 games, including 55-53 (-5.5) home loss to Niagara ten days ago, when Eagles outscored Fairfield 15-5 on foul line in Stags' gym. Stags are 5-3-1 as road underdogs, losing last seven on road, all by 6+ points. Niagara won its last three games by 2-4-11 after a 4-21 start to season; Eagles are 0-2 as MAAC favorites, losing six of their last seven home games, with only win in double OT. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 13-19 vs spread.
Monmouth (+1.5) won 83-64 at Siena Feb 14, scoring 1.36 ppp, a very high number- they held Siena to 3-17 from arc. Hawks lost their last two games by total of four points,. after a solid 8-3 run; they're 3-4-1 as home favorites, splitting last four home games, with both wins by four points. Siena lost its last four games; three of them were at home; Saints are 3-5-1 as road underdogs; only one of their last four losses was by more than 8 points. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-17 vs spread.
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