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Thursday, March 5
Five ways basketball bettors can size up NCAAB Cinderellas
Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away and college basketball bettors will be enthralled by a handful of Cinderella teams making improbable runs in the NCAA tournament. By that time though, it will be too late for said bettors to cash in on those surprise squads.
Hoops fans will look back to the regular season for signs of those teams turning the corner as contenders and wonder, “Why didn’t I see that coming?”
If you would rather be the guy saying “I told you so” and making money on those underdog runs, now is the time to start sizing up possible Cinderella teams. They can come from small mid-major leagues, like VCU in 2011, or could be under our nose the entire year in a major conference, like UConn in 2011 and again last March.
Here are a few things to look for when trying the glass slipper on a potential Cinderella team before the NCAA tournament tips off.
Non-conference success
Probable Cinderella teams can show their true colors as early as November by putting together a strong effort against non-conference foes. Many programs load up on major-conference competition in order to jack their RPI and strength of schedule, giving bettors an idea of how they’ll react against tougher and unknown opponents.
Teams playing in poor conferences that played a meaningless non-conference schedule likely will not come close to getting out of the first round. Teams like VCU (1st non-conf SOS), BYU (16th), Wofford (17th), William & Mary (47th) are potential Cinderella’s thanks to their stout non-conference calendar.
Experience and chemistry
Whether it be a roster packed with upperclassmen or past tournament success, experience is worth its weight in gold come March – especially when taking on some of the younger major-conference squads.
For instance, you can keep a close eye on Harvard (eight seniors), St. Francis (NY) (four seniors, five juniors), Charleston Southern (five seniors, five juniors), and UC Davis (four seniors, three juniors).
Defense
When talking to experts about what stands out most for potential Cinderellas, defense is the one attribute that comes up over and over again. All of them would take a lockdown defence over a potent offence any day of the week during March Madness.
One of the names being brought up is Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers rank fourth in the country in points allowed (54.6), limiting opponents to just 39 percent shooting, including 31.2 percent from beyond the arc.
Momentum
The most dangerous team in the tournament is the hottest team, which we saw from UConn in 2011. Plenty of teams are rolling toward the postseason, but there could be added value behind under-the-radar streaks like Davidson winning seven in a row and BYU putting together six straight wins.
The pointspread is a great way to gauge just how well a team is playing heading into and during its conference tournament. The oddsmakers’ numbers give you an idea of the expectations on a team, and whether or not they are playing above or below that bar. The IUPU - Ft. Wayne Mastodons are long-shot contenders to win the Summit League tournament, but have covered in nine of their last 10 games (8-2 SU) heading in the postseason.
Silent superstars
The NCAA tournament has made household names out of unknown ballers. There are more and more pros coming out of smaller conferences each year. Past Cinderellas like Butler with Gordon Hayward, Davidson with Stephen Curry and Western Kentucky with Courtney Lee, have put their teams on their back come tourney time and given the favorites fits.
UC Davis has a sharp-shooting scorer in Corey Hawkins, who is averaging 20.2 points per game, BYU’s top-ranked offense is paced by Tyler Haws, who scores 0.69 points per minute, and David Laury leads an Iona attack that runs one of the fastest tempos in the country.
Thursday, March 5
Five ways basketball bettors can size up NCAAB Cinderellas
Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away and college basketball bettors will be enthralled by a handful of Cinderella teams making improbable runs in the NCAA tournament. By that time though, it will be too late for said bettors to cash in on those surprise squads.
Hoops fans will look back to the regular season for signs of those teams turning the corner as contenders and wonder, “Why didn’t I see that coming?”
If you would rather be the guy saying “I told you so” and making money on those underdog runs, now is the time to start sizing up possible Cinderella teams. They can come from small mid-major leagues, like VCU in 2011, or could be under our nose the entire year in a major conference, like UConn in 2011 and again last March.
Here are a few things to look for when trying the glass slipper on a potential Cinderella team before the NCAA tournament tips off.
Non-conference success
Probable Cinderella teams can show their true colors as early as November by putting together a strong effort against non-conference foes. Many programs load up on major-conference competition in order to jack their RPI and strength of schedule, giving bettors an idea of how they’ll react against tougher and unknown opponents.
Teams playing in poor conferences that played a meaningless non-conference schedule likely will not come close to getting out of the first round. Teams like VCU (1st non-conf SOS), BYU (16th), Wofford (17th), William & Mary (47th) are potential Cinderella’s thanks to their stout non-conference calendar.
Experience and chemistry
Whether it be a roster packed with upperclassmen or past tournament success, experience is worth its weight in gold come March – especially when taking on some of the younger major-conference squads.
For instance, you can keep a close eye on Harvard (eight seniors), St. Francis (NY) (four seniors, five juniors), Charleston Southern (five seniors, five juniors), and UC Davis (four seniors, three juniors).
Defense
When talking to experts about what stands out most for potential Cinderellas, defense is the one attribute that comes up over and over again. All of them would take a lockdown defence over a potent offence any day of the week during March Madness.
One of the names being brought up is Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers rank fourth in the country in points allowed (54.6), limiting opponents to just 39 percent shooting, including 31.2 percent from beyond the arc.
Momentum
The most dangerous team in the tournament is the hottest team, which we saw from UConn in 2011. Plenty of teams are rolling toward the postseason, but there could be added value behind under-the-radar streaks like Davidson winning seven in a row and BYU putting together six straight wins.
The pointspread is a great way to gauge just how well a team is playing heading into and during its conference tournament. The oddsmakers’ numbers give you an idea of the expectations on a team, and whether or not they are playing above or below that bar. The IUPU - Ft. Wayne Mastodons are long-shot contenders to win the Summit League tournament, but have covered in nine of their last 10 games (8-2 SU) heading in the postseason.
Silent superstars
The NCAA tournament has made household names out of unknown ballers. There are more and more pros coming out of smaller conferences each year. Past Cinderellas like Butler with Gordon Hayward, Davidson with Stephen Curry and Western Kentucky with Courtney Lee, have put their teams on their back come tourney time and given the favorites fits.
UC Davis has a sharp-shooting scorer in Corey Hawkins, who is averaging 20.2 points per game, BYU’s top-ranked offense is paced by Tyler Haws, who scores 0.69 points per minute, and David Laury leads an Iona attack that runs one of the fastest tempos in the country.
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