Saturday’s 6-pack
— Astros 7, Rays 4— Houston forces a Game 7.
— Dodgers 7, Braves 3— Seager homered twice for LA.
— BYU 43, Houston 26— BYU improves to 5-0.
— SMU 37, Tulane 34 OT— Mustangs stay unbeaten.
— In the Dodger game, Will Smith hit a homer off of Will Smith.
— Clippers named Tyronn Lue their new head coach.
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 217,987
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
“It’s not a very good number — and a lot of it’s not all defensively. It’s points on the board and we’ve got to do a good job of that, and how you do that is make them kick more field goals, got to do a better job in field-position-type things. As you see, the scoring is up in the league, but it still makes me sick.”
Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, pointing a finger at the Jets’ offense
Saturday’s quiz
How many black keys are found on a traditional piano?
Friday’s quiz
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan played his college football at Boston College.
Thursday’s quiz
Seattle Mariners are the only major league team is the only one that has never played in a World Series.
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Saturday’s Den:
Looking at the successful but very unusual coaching career of Larry Brown
Larry Brown needs to write a book; he’s had a fascinating career, changing jobs a lot, which is a huge understatement. Coach Brown is 80 now; his mom lived to 106. Here is a brief outline of his coaching stops, most of which were very successful.
1972-74) Carolina Cougars, ABA— Went 104-64 in two years; some of his players were Joe Caldwell, Ed Manning (Danny’s father), Billy Cunningham.
1974-79) Denver Nuggets, ABA/NBA— Went 125-43 with Denver in the ABA, 126-91 in the NBA; he had David Thompson, Dan Issel, Paul Silas, Mack Calvin.
1979-81) UCLA Bruins— Went 42-17 in two seasons, lost the 1980 national title game 59-54 to Louisville. But the NCAA vacated these wins because they used two ineligible players during these two seasons.
1981-83) New Jersey Nets— Went 91-67 in two years, then left. He did this more than once.
1983-88) Kansas Jayhawks— Went 135-44 in five years, won the 1988 national title behind star Danny Manning (his dad Ed played for Brown’s Carolina Cougars).
Just as soon as he won the national title, Brown bolted back to pro ball……..
1988-92) San Antonio Spurs— Went 153-131 over 3.5 years, was canned during the 4th year. The next year, San Antonio replaced him with Jerry Tarkanian.
1992-93) Los Angeles Clippers— At one point during his career, I suggested that he might change jobs during a TV timeout; we’d come back and he’d be coaching the other team. It didn’t seem impossible.
He went 64-53 in 1.5 seasons; I mean, the guy won all the time, but never stayed anywhere.
1993-97) Indiana Pacers— Went 190-138 in four seasons, then 22-16 in playoff games, losing twice in Eastern Conference finals.
1997-2003) Philadelphia 76ers— Six years had to feel like an eternity, but he was coaching Allen Iverson. Sixers went 255-205 under Brown, 28-30 in playoff games, losing the 2001 Finals.
2003-05) Detroit Pistons— Won the NBA title the first year, lost in Finals the second, then just like that, he was gone.
2005-06) New York Knicks— Went 23-59 in one very forgettable season.
2008-11) Charlotte Bobcats— Went back to his Carolina basketball roots, went 88-104, made the playoffs the 2nd year, left 28 games (9-19) into the third year.
2012-16) SMU Mustangs— Went 85-39 at SMU, got them to the NCAA’s and to an NIT Final Four, but just like UCLA, he also ran afoul of the NCAA, and left unexpectedly.
— Brown was a good point guard; he was the MVP of the first-ever ABA All-Star Game
— Brown won a national title in the NBA and in college ball, the only guy to do that.
— Brown played for Dean Smith in college at North Carolina, was a very good point guard; his story is unique in basketball- he and his family must be great at packing.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
Sunday’s 6-pack
How home favorites/underdogs are doing, by conference:
AAC— Home favorites 2-5-1……home underdogs 4-1
ACC— HF 8-7-1…….HU 8-3
Big X— HF 6-4…….HU 3-2
C-USA— HF 1-8……HU 1-3
SEC— HF 6-7…….HU 7-5
Sun Belt— HF 3-2……HU 3-1
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 218.766
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
“Voting is the greatest form of non-violent protest ever devised.”
Historian Jon Meacham
Sunday’s quiz
What was the last college team Nick Saban coached, before he went to coach the Miami Dolphins for two seasons?
Saturday’s quiz
There are 32 black keys on a traditional piano.
Friday’s quiz
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan played his college football at Boston College.
**********************************
Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday
13) Kentucky 34, Tennessee 7:
— Wildcats had lost 17 games in a row in Knoxville, which was the longest losing skid in one visiting stadium in the country- their last win at Tennessee was in 1984.
— Kentucky won its last two games by a combined 58-9.
— Tennessee changed QB’s twice; Kentucky’s first two scores of the day were pick-6’s.
12) Memphis 50, Central Florida 49:
— Total yards: UCF 798-703
— First downs: Memphis 41-34
— UCF’s QB Gabriel threw for 601 yards in a losing cause.
— Golden Knights missed a 42-yard FG for the win with 0:04 left.
11) Florida State 31, North Carolina 28— Seminoles led 31-7, missed a FG, then had to fight like hell to hang on for the win. UNC threw for 374 yards, outgained FSU 558-432, but converted only 2-12 on third down.
10) Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 14— MSU lost its last three games; in their last two games, Bulldogs scored a total of 16 points, 9 by their defense, only 7 by their offense.
9) Alabama 41, Georgia 24— Crimson Tide outscored Georgia 21-0 in 2nd half; they gained 564 total yards, picked off three Georgia passes. Dawgs completed only 18-40 passes; I’m guessing that USC transfer QB Daniels will get medically cleared to play next week.
8) Arkansas 33, Ole Miss 21— Not often a QB stays in the game long enough to throw six INT’s, but that happened here. Arkansas led 20-0, had lead cut to 20-14, when Rebels converted only 4-16 on third down and turned ball over seven times- hard to win that way.
Arkansas WR Treylon Burks made one of the greatest catches I’ve ever seen for a TD, as good as any catch you’ll see on a Sunday.
7) Upsets of the Week:
— Florida State (+13.5) 31, North Carolina 28
— Coastal Carolina (+9) 30, Louisiana 27
— Kentucky (+6.5) 34, Tennessee 7
— North Texas (+6) 52, Middle Tennessee 35
— South Carolina (+3) 30, Auburn 22
6) Liberty 38, Syracuse 21— Last year, Syracuse was a 19-point favorite at Liberty, and they blanked the Flames, 24-0, but Liberty ran the ball for 338 yards in this game- they were favored by 2.5 points on the road, over an ACC team. Hugh Freeze won’t be at Liberty much longer.
5) South Carolina 30, Auburn 22— Gamecocks hadn’t beaten Auburn since 1933; this was their first win over Auburn in SEC play. Tigers outgained Carolina 481-297, but threw three INT’s.
4) Temple 39, South Florida 37— A gambler at SouthPoint in Las Vegas risked $50,000 to win $10,000 that Temple would win SU; they were down 31-20 with 2:00 left in third quarter, but rallied to win. Had to be a long three hours for that guy, but he did win.
3) I was flipping channels Saturday afternoon, hit the wrong button and found a pro bowling tournament; guy had a perfect game heading into the 10th frame. Francois Lavoie struck out and got his 300 game, which is such a cool event that his opponent was taking pics of him with his cellphone after the game.
2) Dodgers 3, Braves 1 (series 3-3):
— Seager/Turner homered in the first; that was enough.
— Braves had nine hits, were 2-11 with RISP.
— Buehler tossed six shutout innings.
1) Rays 4, Astros 2 (Tampa Bay wins 4-3):
— Morton threw 5.2 scoreless innings.
— Arozarena homered in the first inning.
— Tampa Bay plays Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
The Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed a Game 6 victory, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles opened as -135 favorites at The SuperBook for Sunday's game.
MLB betting odds are up and getting attention for the lone matchup on the Sunday schedule, Game 7 of the NLCS. The Los Angeles Dodgers look to complete their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit when they face the Atlanta Braves, with the Tampa Bay Rays waiting in the World Series.
The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s game. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.
MLB line movement
The Dodgers got back-to-back solo home runs from Corey Seager and Justin Turner as part of a three-run first inning Saturday, and that held up the rest of the way in a 3-1 Game 6 win over the Braves. That sets up a decisive Game 7, with first pitch at 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday.
Atlanta plans to start Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in three starts this postseason. Los Angeles’ starter wasn’t determined by late Saturday night, but The SuperBook went ahead and posted a line of Dodgers -135/Braves +125, with a total of 8.
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MLB
Dunkel
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Game 909-910
October 18, 2020 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Anderson) 16.960
LA Dodgers
(TBD) 19.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-140
8 Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-140); Over
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, October 18
Best-of-7 series
National League
Atlanta (3-3) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Anderson is 5-2, 2.06 in nine career MLB starts
— Braves are 6-3 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— Anderson needed 85 pitches to throw four shutout innings against the Dodgers, in his last start, his only start vs LA.
— He’s thrown 15.2 scoreless innings in his three playoff starts.
— Braves won eight of their first 11 playoff games, but lost last two.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 24-17 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Dodgers haven’t announced a starter; will be a bullpen game.
— Dodgers are 51-20 this year, but 3-3 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 30-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
ATLANTA (43 - 28) vs. LA DODGERS (51 - 20) - 8:15 PM
IAN ANDERSON (R) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 30-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 43-28 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday this season.
ATLANTA is 78-64 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 110-77 (+18.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-9 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 18-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-3 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)
IAN ANDERSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ANDERSON is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
TONY GONSOLIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
GONSOLIN is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.321.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 220,020 PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.
Quote of the Day
“Everybody could have done one more thing to help us get this win. That’s all of us. That’s the coaches and the players. Everyone has gotta be accountable to that.”
Bengals coach Zac Taylor
Tuesday’s quiz
Who did the Tampa Bay Rays play in their other World Series appearance?
Monday’s quiz
Tom Hanks earned his first Academy Award nomination for his role in Big.
Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached LSU, before he went to coach the Miami Dolphins for two seasons.
********************************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..
13) Chiefs 26, Buffalo 17
— Chiefs won all three of their road games, 2by 3-14-9 points.
— KC is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games following a SU loss.
— Under is 4-1-1 in their games this season.
— Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.
— Buffalo lost its last two games, giving up 68 points, after a 4-0 start.
— Buffalo is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.
— Game was played on a rainy, cruddy night in western New York.
— Chiefs ran the football for 245 yards; they outgained Buffalo, 466-206.
12) Cardinals 38, Dallas 10:
— Arizona’s first three drives: 16 plays, 23 yards, three punts.
— Redbirds’ next four drives: 26 plays, 240 yards, four TD’s.
— Arizona ran the ball for 261 yards.
— Cardinals scored 38 points despite Murray completing 9-24 passes.
— Arizona is 3-1 on the road this season.
— Last five games, Dallas has allowed 39-38-49-34-38 points.
— Ezekiel Elliott lost fumbles on two of his first eight touches.
— With 11:30 left in 3rd quarter, play-by-play guy said that Dallas lacked enthusiasm, a nice way of saying they quit. No one disagreed with him.
— NFC East teams are 4-14 ATS outside their division, 1-9 at home.
11) Why did Red Sox trade Mookie Betts? Isn’t it good to have great players on your team?
10) Last three Georgia-Alabama games, Dawgs led all three games at halftime, then got outscored by a combined 68-17 in second half and lost all three.
9) Tennessee Vols signed a new defensive line coach to a 2-year contract this year, but they fired the guy Sunday, after only four games. Must be an interesting story there.
8) Social media flipped out Saturday night, when Tampa Bay took starter Charlie Morton out of the game despite Morton having thrown only 66 pitches. Everything worked out and the Rays won, but analytics people are obsessed with the idea that facing hitters a third time in a game is a bad idea, even if the pitcher doing it is way better than the reliever.
Thats part of what makes life interesting, different ideas being debated.
7) When the Tampa Bay Rays won the American League in 2008, it was also their first-ever winning season; they became a franchise in 1998. Starting in ’08, they’ve been over .500 nine of the last 13 years.
6) Of the 32 current NFL head coaches, 11 of them were also head coaches at a previous stop.
10 defensive coordinators, 7 offensive coordinators have previously been head coaches.
5) Tennessee Titans lost OT Taylor Lewan for the year with a torn ACL; big loss.
4) You wonder how much playing these weeknight games on national TV will help recruiting for Sun Belt, AAC football programs that are getting an unusually high amount of TV exposure.
It is good football, the games have been fun to watch; kids are going to see the games, and it has to help their recruiting a little bit, no?
3) Long time ago, there was a guy who played in the ABA named Wes Bialosuknia; he played at UConn in college, played one year for the Oakland Oaks, scoring 8.7 ppg.
He had a great nickname; the Typographical Terror.
2) Leads seem to less safe in the NFL this year; in six weeks of play, at least one team every week has blown a lead of 16+ points, with the Bengals doing it this past week- they led the Colts 21-0 in Indianapolis Sunday, lost 31-27.
1) One of the great broadcasters of all-time announced his retirement this week; Mike Emrick is one of, if not the best hockey play-by-play guy ever (with the late Dan Kelly). Few years ago, Emrick was very nice to a friend of mine’s son, who is an up-and-coming hockey announcer. He is just a classy guy and was great fun to listen to. Enjoy your retirement!!!
MLB public betting, line movement October 20 Patrick Everson
Mookie Betts and the L.A. Dodgers rode a Game 7 win and NLCS comeback against the Atlanta Braves to return to the World Series, where the Superbook at Westgate installed them as -215 favorites
MLB betting odds move on to the final frontier of this shortened season, the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays both needed seven games in their respective league championship series, and now they’ll meet in the Fall Classic.
Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for World Series odds as a whole and Tuesday’s Game 1. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.
The SuperBook put up its price to win the best-of-7 World Series late Sunday night, opening at Dodgers -215/Rays +185. There was apparently a little Tampa Bay money early, with a move to Dodgers -200/Rays +175.
John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, was hoping for Braves-Rays, a big win-win, as both sides would’ve been very good for the house. But he’ll settle for Rays-Dodgers.
“The Rays are awesome for us,” Murray said. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”
That’s no surprise, with Las Vegas books always attracting plenty of Dodger dollars, and surely more will show up on the series price and on a game-by-game basis over the next week or so.
Meanwhile, PointsBet USA opened Dodgers -182/Rays +145, and the first move was significant, to Dodgers -200/Rays +160. Patrick Eichner, director of communications for PointsBet USA, said Los Angeles represents a substantial loss should it claim the championship, while Tampa Bay would be a big win.
“The Dodgers were the second-most-bet team to win, behind the Yankees,” Eichner said. “The Rays only account for about 4 percent of the overall bet count on the (World Series) market.”
MLB line movement
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Game 1 at Dodgers -175/Rays +148, and the first moves were down, as the moneyline is now Los Angeles -162/Tampa Bay +138. The total is stable at 8.
The Dodgers rallied from a 3-1 NLCS deficit against the Braves, finishing with a 4-3 Game 7 victory on Sunday night. On the flip side, the Rays blew a 3-0 ALCS lead against the Astros, but came through with a 4-2 Game 7 win Saturday.
Although Game 1 starters weren’t set late Sunday night, The SuperBook went ahead and posted the line at Dodgers -165/Rays +155, with a total of 8. There was no movement Sunday night for Tuesday’s tilt, with first pitch at 8:09 p.m. ET.
MLB public betting
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: It's two-way action early on Game 1 at DraftKings, with 55 percent of tickets on the Rays and 59 percent of money on the favored Dodgers. Ticket count on the total is two-way, with the Over at 56 percent, though money is more pronounced on the Over, at 70 percent.
951TAMPA BAY -952 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 40-27 SU (11.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.
MLB
Dunkel
Tuesday, October 20
Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Game 951-952
October 20, 2020 @ 8:09 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.129
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 19.006
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-175
7 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-175); Under
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, October 20
World Series
Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Glasnow is 4-1, 3.86 in his last six starts.
— Rays are 12-3 in his starts this season.
— Under is 3-3 in his last six starts.
— Glasnow allowed six runs in four IP in three relief stints vs LA.
— He is 2-3, 5.47 in six postseason starts.
— Tampa Bay is 13-5 in its last 18 games; they survived blowing a 3-0 series lead vs Houston, and their bullpen had the last two days off.
— Rays are 49-25 this season.
— Under is 8-1 in their last eight games.
— Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.
Kershaw is 3-1, 3.60 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 10-3 in his starts this season.
— Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— Kershaw is 11-12, 4.31 in 35 playoff games (28 starts).
— He is 2-0, 1.88 in two career starts against the Rays.
— Dodgers are 52-20 this year; they rallied from down 3-1 to win the NLCS.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 31-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.
Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games on the road
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
LA Dodgers is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
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