The bums mlb playoffs thru the world series news,trends,picks !

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, October 13

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at LAD 06:05 PM
LAD -140
O 8.5

TB at HOU 08:40 PM
HOU -105
U 8.5

[StarDust Bum]

ALCS & NLCS RECORD:

10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........7-3-0.......70.00%.....+15.75

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack
Some interesting spreads for Week 6 college games:
— Georgia State @ Arkansas State (-3.5)
— SMU (-6.5) @ Tulane
— Boston College @ Virginia Tech (-11.5)
— Pittsburgh @ Miami (-10.5)
— South Florida @ Temple (-10.5)
— Navy (-2) @ East Carolina

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 215,294
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“We’ve known for a long time that you can have a great player at this spot, but then not have him at periods of time during his career. We had it with Aikman. We had it with Romo. You don’t always have them.

So, you’ve got to rely on other parts of your team. That’s why we do not and do not go into a contract negotiation with the idea that it stands alone. It has to be a part of your tools which you have, which is your salary cap to put a team on the field and try to figure out the best way to win. And really that’s the underlying issue here.”
Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jomes, talking about Dak Prescott’s injury/contract situation

Wednesday’s quiz
How many major league teams have never won a World Series?

Tuesday’s quiz
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin once coached the Raiders for 20 games, going 5-15.

Monday’s quiz
Dolphins’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played his college football at Harvard.


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Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

13) Tennessee 42, Bills 16
— Total yardage: 370-334 Buffalo, very misleading stat.
— Four of six Tennessee TD drives were 30 or fewer yards.
— Buffalo converted 13-17 third down plays, and only scored 16 points.
— All five Buffalo games went over the total.

— Tennessee won its first four games, scoring 30.5 ppg.
— Titans are +8 in turnovers, best ratio in the league.
— Tennessee is 4-0 for first time since 2008.
— Titans won field position by 29 yards, biggest margin I’ve seen.

12) With Buffalo playing last night, their Thursday night game with the Chiefs this week was pushed back to Sunday afternoon— NFL won’t have a Thursday night game this week, but there are a couple college games on the board to amuse us.

11) Dallas Cowboys signed QB Garrett Gilbert to fill out its QB room; Gilbert was the leading passer in the AAF before it folded (Orlando Apollos)- he was drafted by the Rams, played at Texas/SMU in college and was most recently on Cleveland’s practice squad.

10) How will the Dallas offense change with Dak Prescott out? Andy Dalton is obviously a competent NFL QB, but he isn’t as mobile- I figure the Cowboys will run the ball more.

Dallas has taken 76.2 snaps/game so far this year, most in the league; only 15.7% of those plays came on 3rd down, 2nd lowest %age in the NFL, behind Seattle. Cowboys’ tempo figures to slow down some, don’t you think?

9) Thru five games, Seattle has run 76 fewer plays than their opponents, but they’re 5-0; 12 of their 23 touchdowns have come on plays of 18+ yards.

Surprising stat: Seattle has allowed 25+ points in each of its last 10 home games.

8) Last four games, LA Chargers have been outscored 64-29 in 2nd half/OT; they lost all four games, all by 7 or fewer points, two of them in OT.

7) So far this season, AFC teams are 11-9-1 SU vs NFC opponents.

6) This is the first time ever that Iowa State is in the college football top 25, while Texas and Oklahoma are outside the top 25.

5) Wichita State basketball coach Gregg Marshall is being investigated by the school after he was charged with mental/physical abuse by former players. Marshall has been at Wichita for 13 years; he led the Shockers to the 2013 Final Four, has made the NCAAs 7 of the last 8 years it was played- they were 23-8 LY, so they would’ve made it again.

4) Some good news in college basketball; Mountain West will play an 18-game conference season, starting December 29.

3) Kansas State QB Skyler Thompson is out for the year, with an arm/shoulder/collarbone injury. Freshman Will Howard steps in to replace him- he was 8-19/117 yards and an INT in the Wildcats’ 21-14 win at TCU last week.

2) Rays 5, Astros 2 (Tampa Bay leads 3-0)
— Yarbrough threw five strong innings; five relievers closed the game out.
— Rays scored all five of their runs in 6th inning; Wendle knocked in two runs.
— Altuve homered in first inning in 2 of 3 games in this series, but he also had a huge throwing error. After not having a throwing error all season, he has three in this series.

1) Braves 8, Dodgers 7 (Atlanta leads 2-0):
— Braves are 7-0 in the playoffs, but hung on for dear life in this game.
— Atlanta led 7-0 in 7th inning; Dodgers had tying run on third in last inning.
— Atlanta’s rookie P Anderson was lifted after four shutout innings (85 PT).
— Albies homered into the Atlanta bullpen again; for 2nd straight night, closer Melancon caught the ball on the fly.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB public betting, line movement October 14
Patrick Everson

It's desperation time for Carlos Correa and the Houston Astros, who must win Game 4 of the ALCS to keep their season alive. However, PointsBet USA has the Rays as -145 favorites.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Wednesday schedule that again includes the ALCS and NLCS. The Tampa Bay Rays go for a sweep of the defending AL champion Houston Astros, and the suddenly desperate Los Angeles Dodgers hope to start making up ground against the Atlanta Braves.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s games.

MLB line movement

Tampa Bay trailed 1-0 entering the sixth inning of Game 3 Tuesday night, then exploded for five runs in the top of that frame and made those stand up in a 5-2 victory over Houston. The Rays take a 3-0 series lead into Wednesday’s 8:40 p.m. ET Game 4, looking to quickly finish off the best-of-7 ALCS and earn a berth in the World Series.

The Astros hope Zack Greinke can save their bacon, but PointsBet USA pegged Tyler Glasnow and the Rays a -140 favorite late Tuesday night. The line then moved to Tampa -145/Houston +125.

In the NLCS, Los Angeles planned to have ace Clayton Kershaw in Tuesday’s Game 2, but he was scratched due to back spasms. Atlanta took advantage, posting a 6-0 lead through five innings and holding off a ninth-inning Dodgers rally for an 8-7 victory to go up 2-0 in the NLCS.

The Dodgers won’t have Kershaw for Wednesday’s critical 6:05 p.m. ET start, instead going to Julio Urias, but Los Angeles opened a -170 favorite at Caesars, with Atlanta +155. The total opened at 9.5, and neither the line nor total moved through Tuesday night.

MLB public betting

In a very small sample size late Tuesday night, the consensus showed 80 percent of picks coming in on the Rays to sweep away the Astros. Meanwhile, NLCS Game 3 was getting two-way play, with the desperate Dodgers landing 53 percent of early picks.


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MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 14

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta

Game 973-974
October 14, 2020 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Urias) 18.667
Atlanta
(Wright) 17.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-175
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-175); Over

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 971-972
October 14, 2020 @ 8:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 17.898
Houston
(Greinke) 15.158
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-140
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+120); Under




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 14

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-0) (@ San Diego)
Greinke is 0-3, 6.14 in his last six starts.
— Houston is 6-8 in his starts, 2-5 away from home.
— Under is 4-2 in his six starts.
— Greinke is 3-6, 4.29 in 18 career playoff starts.
— He is 4-6, 3.36 in 17 games (14 starts) against Tampa Bay.

— Astros scored total of five runs in losing first three games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 6-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-27 on road this season.

Glasnow is 4-0, 3.33 in his last five starts.
— Tampa Bay won Glasnow’s last 11 starts.
— Over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
— Glasnow is 2-2, 5.31 in five career playoff starts.
— He allowed one un in five IP in his one start vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its ten playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 7-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (2-0) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Wright is 2-0, 0.95 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 5-4 in his starts, 4-3 away from home.
— Under is 6-3 in his starts.
— Wright threw six shutout innings in his one playoff start.
— He has never pitched against the Dodgers.

— Braves won their first seven playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 23-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-2 in their playoff games.

Urias is 2-0, 1.75 in his last five appearances (23 IP)
— Dodgers are 5-5 in his starts this season.
— Over is 3-0 in his last three starts.
— He s 4-2, 3.42 in 14 playoff games (1 start)
— He threw four scoreless innings in two relief appearances vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-19 this year, but 0-2 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-10 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.




MLB

Wednesday, October 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Tampa Bay @ Houston
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games on the road
Houston
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


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MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 14

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TAMPA BAY (48 - 22) vs. HOUSTON (34 - 35) - 8:40 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 48-22 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-8 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 32-15 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 37-13 (+21.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-15 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
GLASNOW is 12-2 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GLASNOW is 13-0 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GLASNOW is 16-3 (+14.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 34-35 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 15-21 (-23.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-22 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 97-73 (-18.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 54-45 (-10.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. HOUSTON since 1997
GLASNOW is 1-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.583.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GREINKE is 4-7 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.221.
His team's record is 5-10 (-7.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-6. (+1.9 units)

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LA DODGERS (48 - 19) vs. ATLANTA (42 - 25) - 6:05 PM
JULIO URIAS (L) vs. KYLE WRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 194-205 (-65.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
ATLANTA is 42-25 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 77-62 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 17-5 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-0 (+2.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)

JULIO URIAS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

KYLE WRIGHT vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

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971TAMPA BAY -972 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 25-36 SU (-15.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

973LA DODGERS -974 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 37-25 SU (10.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAD at ATL 06:05 PM
ATL +167
U 9.5
+500 +500

TB at HOU 08:40 PM
TB -140
U 8.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

ALCS & NLCS RECORD:

10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........8-6-0.......57.14%.....+3.25

[StarDust Bum]

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,856— Dak Prescott, Dal
1,589— Josh Allen, Buff
1,502— Russell Wilson, Sea
1,474— Patrick Mahomes, KC
1,472— Matt Ryan, Atl
1,460— Teddy Bridgewater, Car

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 216,469
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

13) What are the odds of a guy hitting a home run in a playoff game two nights in a row, have both homers go into his team’s bullpen, and have the same relief pitcher catch the baseballs on the fly? It happened this week.

Atlanta’s Ozzie Albies homered twice and closer Mark Melancon caught both balls, once when he was warming up to close the game out.

Later that night, Dr Tom House tweeted this out:

“It’s very fun to catch a teammate’s HR in the bullpen. Trust me.”

Tom House was a reliever for the Braves in 1974; he was in the Atlanta bullpen and caught Hank Aaron’s 715th home run that broke Babe Ruth’s record.

12) Sunday in Baltimore, the Bengals kicked a field goal in the last minute when they trailed 27-0, making them only the second NFL team in the last 25 years to kick a field goal in the last minute, just to avoid being shut out.

In 2006, Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers kicked a last-minute FG when they trailed Pittsburgh 20-0.

11) Coastal Carolina 30, Louisiana 27:
— Sun Belt is good football; ESPN needs to show more of their games.
— Total yardage was 414-413, that’s how good a game this was.
— Chanticleers kicked a 40-yard FG with 0:04 left for the win.
— Both teams ran the ball for 200+ yards.

10) Quick story, with the joke on me:

October 2009, I’m sitting in the sportsbook at Planet Hollywood; love the place, great 24-hour coffee shop (generous video poker machine right near that coffee shop), lot of good places to eat and people-watch, and lot of TV’s.

Anyway, I’m watching the Texas-Oklahoma game and Sooners’ QB Sam Bradford is getting pummeled by the Longhorns; he looks like he’s about to fall apart and I’m thinking to myself, “Which NFL team will be stupid enough to draft this guy? He can’t stay healthy in college ball, how will he ever last in the NFL?”

So of course, six months later, the Rams draft him in the first round; no bueno. He went 18-30-1 starting for the Rams, got hurt a lot, made a boatload of money. What a disaster.

9) Want to win a bar bet? Micheal Williams of the Timberwolves holds the NBA record for consecutive free throws made; he knocked down 97 in a row, back in 1993.

8) Tuesday was the anniversary of a couple of interesting sports days:
— In 1960, Bill Mazeroski hit a walk-off homer for the Pirates in Game 7 of the World Series.
— In 1967, the ABA started its first season, with an Oakland-Anaheim game.

7) These days, I’m re-reading a 1990 book called Loose Balls, the history of the ABA, which was a fun league that made basketball a lot better. If things get slow again this winter like they did last winter, I could spend a week in this space telling stories from this book.

6) I’m usually in Las Vegas this week, relaxing and watching the baseball playoffs, football and resting up before college basketball prep begins, but because 2020 sucks, I’m reading books and eating PopTarts at 3am, which ain’t bad, but it ain’t Vegas.

5) Five weeks into the NFL season, and the Rams have already played/beaten all four teams in the NFC East, which is actually fortunate scheduling, seeing how three of those teams have new coaches this season. Rough season to be breaking in a new program.

4) NBA commissioner Adam Silver was apparently very happy with how the NBA bubble went; all NBA employees got a $1,000 bonus, and four extra days off this fall.

3) Get well soon to Alabama football coach Nick Saban and AD Greg Byrne, both of whom tested positive for COVID.

2) Astros 4, Rays 3 (Tampa Bay leads 3-1)
— Houston stays alive; Rays had tying run on 3rd in last inning.
— This was first AL playoff game this year where both starting pitchers went 6+ innings.
— Altuve homered in first inning in 3 of 4 games in this series.

1) Dodgers 15, Braves 3 (Atlanta leads 2-1):
— Dodgers scored 11 runs in top of the 1st, the most runs scored in an inning in any playoff game, ever.
— Game started with a ground out to 3B that was overturned by replay; then all hell broke loose.
— Seager scored in three runs, knocked in three more.
— Braves are now 7-1 in the playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB public betting, line movement October 15
Patrick Everson

Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers can tie up the NLCS in Game 4 Thursday night against the Astros. Caesars sportsbooks opened the Dodgers -200 favorites and quickly moved to -215.

MLB betting odds once again give us two big games, with the NLCS and ALCS both on the Thursday schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers aim to tie the NLCS in Game 4 against the Atlanta Braves, while the Tampa Bay Rays get their second crack at ending the ALCS against the Houston Astros.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s games.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles climbed into the NLCS with a bang, piling up 11 runs in the first inning of Game 3 and coasting to a 15-3 victory Tuesday to pull within 2-1 in the best-of-seven series. Now, the Dodgers plan to have scratched Game 2 starter Clayton Kershaw take the ball in the 8:08 p.m. ET Game 4.

Caesars sportbooks certainly expect Kershaw on the bump, opening the Dodgers -200 favorites late Wednesday night, with the Braves +180. Less than 30 minutes later, the line was up to Dodgers -215/Braves +190.

Houston nabbed its first win of the ALCS, topping Tampa Bay 4-2 in Game 4 Wednesday night, but the Rays still hold a commanding 3-1 lead entering a 5:07 p.m. ET Game 5. With Thursday’s starters not yet set, most sportsbooks didn’t put up a line Wednesday night, so check back for updates.

MLB public betting

With the line for NLCS Game 4 coming out late Wednesday night, the consensus sample was very limited. However, Kershaw’s corner was the early leader, with the Dodgers getting 67 percent of picks against the Braves.


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MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 15

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 975-976
October 15, 2020 @ 5:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(TBD) 17.533
Houston
(TBD) 15.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-135); Under

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta

Game 977-978
October 15, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 16.019
Atlanta
(Wilson) 17.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
13
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-225
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+195); Over




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 15

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-1) (@ San Diego)
Unknown starting pitcher— probably bullpen game

— Astros scored total of nine runs in first four games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 7-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 15-27 on road this season.

Unknown starting pitcher— probably bullpen game

— Tampa Bay won eight of its 11 playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (2-1) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Wilson allowed one run in eight IP in two late-season starts.
— Atlanta split the two starts.
— Over is 2-0 in his starts.
— He has never pitched against the Dodgers; this is his first career playoff game.

— Braves won seven of their first eight playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 23-15 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.

Kershaw has been batting physical problems; he is 8-2, 2.61 in 12 starts this year.
— Dodgers are 10-2 in his starts this season.
— Over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— He s 11-11, 4.23 in 34 playoff games (27 starts)
— He is 5-0, 1.78 in 11 career starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 49-19 this year, but 1-2 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 28-10 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-4 in their last nine games.




MLB

Thursday, October 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay @ Houston
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


********************************


975TAMPA BAY -976 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 26-36 SU (-14.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

977LA DODGERS -978 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 11-1 SU (9.9 Units) when playing on Thursday in the current season.




MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (48 - 23) vs. HOUSTON (35 - 35) - 5:07 PM
BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. LUIS GARCIA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 (+1.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

LUIS GARCIA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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LA DODGERS (49 - 19) vs. ATLANTA (42 - 26) - 8:08 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. BRYSE WILSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 42-26 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 50-32 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 17-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA DODGERS are 94-58 (+33.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

BRYSE WILSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

[Udog]

LA Dodgers - P Clayton Kershaw (back) is expected to start tonight versus Atlanta.

Tampa Bay - CF Kevin Kiermaier (hand) is questionable tonight versus Houston.

BULLPEN
Tampa Bay's relievers have pitched 10 innings in the last 3 games.

BULLPEN
Houston's relievers have pitched 8 innings in the last 3 games.

BULLPEN
LA Dodgers's relievers have pitched 12.2 innings in the last 3 games

BULLPEN
Atlanta's relievers have pitched 16.1 innings in the last 3 games.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at HOU 05:07 PM

HOU +120

U 9.5

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAD at ATL 08:08 PM

ATL +180

O 9.0

[StarDust Bum]

ALCS & NLCS RECORD:

10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals.......12-6-0.......66.66%.....+28.25

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in receiving yardage:
421— Allen Robinson, Chi
403— Stefon Diggs, Buff
403— DK Metcalf, Sea
401— Amari Cooper, Dal
397— DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz
387— Terry McLaurin, Wash

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 217,497
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Having length is an advantage and I’ve always been pretty long, but I felt like there was room to … I think what I want to do is at least know that I have it if I need it. I’m not going to try to do it all the time, I’m not trying to get my ball speed into the 190s every time I hit a driver, but at least I know that if I need to do it, I can do it.”
Golfer Rory McIlroy

Friday’s quiz
Which starting QB in the NFL played his college football at Boston College?

Thursday’s quiz
Seattle Mariners are the only major league team is the only one that has never played in a World Series.

Wednesday’s quiz
Six major league teams have never won a World Series.


*********************

Friday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

13) How would you like to be a fly on the wall at Nick Saban’s house Saturday night, when he is in quarantine while Alabama plays Georgia in the week’s biggest college football game?

Saban and the Alabama AD both tested positive for COVID, so he is stuck at home for a while, and the rules say coaches in the booth cannot communicate with outside places while the game is going on. Hopefully, Mrs Saban takes the dog for a long walk and gives Nick some space.

Part of me says there is no way Saban isn’t texting some student manager and having the kid deliver messages to Steve Sarkisian.

Semi-related side note: Alabama’s basketball coach Nate Oats said Thursday that he had COVID back in July.

12) News Item of the Day: Utah Jazz hired Sergi Olivia away from the 76ers’ front office, to join their coaching staff. Olivia had been the Vice President of Strategy for the Sixers.

This isn’t really big news, but that is a tremendous job title; Vice President of Strategy

I’ve been retired from my job for almost six years now, but I’ve worked in basketball analytics in both college/high school basketball— I’d love to be someone’s Vice President of Strategy. It just sounds so freakin’ important.

11) A new casino that is rumored to have an excellent sportsbook will open in downtown Las Vegas October 28; the Circa will be a 2-story casino with a 3-story sportsbook. It appears as if the top level of the sports ook is a very large swimming pool in front of huge TV screens. They’re billing it as the biggest sportsbook in Las Vegas history.

10) Jets dump RB Le’Veon Bell and the Chiefs jump in and sign him; problem is, Bell hasn’t been a productive player for quite a while. He’s out of excuses now; he better produce in that offense, or his career is history.

9) In September, $748.5M, that’s million with an M, was wagered on sports in New Jersey.

8) Houston Rockets let GM Daryl Morey resign Thursday, rather than fire him- guys don’t quit jobs like that unless they’re jumping to another lucrative gig.

Morey is an MIT graduate, an analytics guy who sparked a rift between the NBA and Chinese government when he tweeted support for anti-government protesters in Hong Kong about this time last year. That cost the NBA a boatload of money in China, and money talks, so Morey walks.

7) Indiana Pacers have never won an NBA title, but four of their head coaches have, three of them after they left Indiana, one before he got there:
— Jack Ramsay, Portland
— Larry Brown, Detroit
— Rick Carlisle, Dallas
— Frank Vogel, Lakers

6) White Sox are interviewing 76-year old Tony Larussa for their open managing job; he last managed in the majors with St Louis, in 2011. He started as a manager with the White Sox way back in 1979.

5) Just when I thought ESPN couldn’t be more annoying, they’re starting to show football games from Newman HS in Louisiana, because Peyton Manning’s nephew is the QB there- the kid is in 10th grade, let him be a kid. He doesn’t need his games shown on national TV.

4) Arkansas State 59, Georgia State 52:
— Said this yesterday; ESPN needs to show more Sun Belt football.
— Arkansas State plays two QB’s; in their last two games, they’re a combined 61-97 for 968 yards and 14 TD’s throwing the ball.
— Total yardage in this game: 609-583, ASU

3) Astros 4, Rays 3 (Tampa Bay leads 3-2)
— Carlos Correa hit a walk-off homer, series is 3-2 Tampa Bay.
— First five pitchers Houston used in this game are rookies.

2) Braves 10, Dodgers 2 (Atlanta leads 3-1):
— Atlanta broke open a 1-1 tie with six runs in 6th inning.
— Bryse Wilson allowed one hit, one run in six outstanding innings.
— Marcell Ozuna homered twice for the Braves.

1) Before I go, let me settle an argument; Michael Jordan isn’t the best basketball player ever, and neither is Lebron James, though they’re both in the top five.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the best basketball player ever; after his freshman season at UCLA, when the Bruins’ freshman team beat the UCLA varsity by 20, the NCAA outlawed the dunk, a ban that lasted for ten years. (Freshman weren’t allowed on the varsity back then)

When Kareem was a rookie in the NBA with Milwaukee, the Bucks went 56-26 and lost in the Eastern Conference final- it was their 2nd year of existence- they won the NBA title the next year. Kareem may not have a big personality or be the face of a shoe company, but he was the most dominant basketball player ever.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB public betting, line movement October 16
Patrick Everson

Mookie Betts and the Dodgers are in a 3-1 NLCS hole and a must-win situation for Friday night's Game 5 against the Braves. Most sportsbooks didn't post a Game 5 moneyline Thursday night.

MLB betting odds provide two pivotal games once again, with the NLCS and ALCS both on the Friday schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a must-win Game 5 against the Atlanta Braves, and ditto for the resilient Houston Astros in Game 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s games.

MLB line movement

Atlanta had a six-run sixth-inning outburst en route to a 10-2 Game 4 victory over Clayton Kershaw and Los Angeles on Thursday, giving the Braves a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. With starters not yet set for Friday’s 9:08 p.m. ET Game 5, most sportsbooks didn’t post a line Thursday night.

Tampa Bay won the first three games of the ALCS, but is now in a dogfight after two straight losses. In Game 5 Thursday, Carlos Correa hit a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the ninth inning to give defending AL champion Houston a 4-3 victory.

Caesars sportsbooks opened Game 6 at Rays -130/Astros +120, and there was no movement Thursday night for Friday’s 6:07 p.m. ET first pitch. The total of 8 also didn’t move Thursday night.

MLB public betting

The consensus, often indicative of public play, showed a modest lean toward Tampa Bay late Thursday night. The Rays were landing 54 percent of early picks, while the total had 58 percent of early picks on the Under.


*****************************


901HOUSTON -902 TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON is 27-36 SU (-13.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

903LA DODGERS -904 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 8-0 SU (8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite in the current season.




MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 16

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 901-902
October 16, 2020 @ 6:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Valdez) 15.791
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-135); Under

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta

Game 903-904
October 16, 2020 @ 9:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(May) 17.276
Atlanta
(TBD) 18.695
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
N/A




MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (36 - 35) vs. TAMPA BAY (48 - 24) - 6:07 PM
FRAMBER VALDEZ (L) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 36-35 (-8.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 48-24 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-6 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 24-11 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 (+0.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.0 Units)

FRAMBER VALDEZ vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
VALDEZ is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

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LA DODGERS (49 - 20) vs. ATLANTA (43 - 26) - 9:08 PM
DUSTIN MAY (R) vs. JOSH TOMLIN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 (+3.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

DUSTIN MAY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

JOSH TOMLIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
TOMLIN is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 16

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-2) (@ San Diego)
Valdez is 4-1, 1.72 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 9-5 in his starts this season.
— Over is 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— Valdez is 2-1, 3.00 in three playoff games (2 starts).
— He gave up two runs in six IP in his first start vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros scored total of 13 runs in first five games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 8-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 16-27 on road this season.

Snell is 4-1, 2.53 in his last six starts.
— Rays are 9-5 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— Snell is 2-1, 2.57 in six playoff games (4 starts).
— He is 3-2, 4.58 in seven career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its 12 playoff games, but lost last two.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-15 away from home this season.
— Under is 9-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (3-1) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Sounds like a bullpen game

— Braves won eight of their first nine playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 24-15 away from home this season.
— Over is 3-0 in their last three games.

May hasn’t allowed a run in his last 8.2 IP, but they were spread out over four stints. He’s been an opener, a reliever; he may be asked to go longer here, if he does well.
— He’s allowed one run in 8 IP in five playoff games (1 start).
— He’s allowed four runs in 3.2 IP in two games vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 49-20 this year, but 1-3 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 28-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 3-0 in their last three games.




MLB

Friday, October 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games